MLB Grind Down: Friday, October 2nd - Page Three

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee – 8:10 PM EST

Chicago Cubs Milwaukee
cubsmlb Jake Arrieta milwaukeemlb Ariel Pena
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC (-195) 7
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.174 0.496 0.226 0.298 SP vs. Left 0.226 0.953 0.412 0.098
SP vs. Right 0.207 0.547 0.242 0.247 SP vs. Right 0.218 0.555 0.236 0.293
Batter Splits CHC BvP CHC vs R Batter Splits MIL BvP MIL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Arrieta : FD: $12,700 — DK: $13,700

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 379.2 — SIERA: 2.82 — ERA: 2.11 — K%: 27.1% — BB%: 6.1% — HR/9: 0.4
Last 30 Days: IP: 49.0 — SIERA: 2.02 — ERA: 0.37 — K%: 30.2% — BB%: 3.0% — HR/9: 0.2

Milwaukee Brewers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 19) — Strikeout Rate: 21.3% (Rank: 23)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.296 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 26.6% (Rank: 30)
Pitches per PA: 3.74 (Rank: 26)

Analysis: The Cubs would still like to win out and possibly be in line to host the Wildcard game, but the odds of that happening are very small, as they are down two games to the Pirates with three to play. However, if his last start was any indication, tonight’s game will be a tune up start for Arrieta. Despite only allowing one hit in seven shutout innings, the Cubs pulled him after only 84 pitches. It’s hard to justify paying a premium for a pitcher that may not throw more than 80-85 pitches tonight. For that reason, I’m going to use Chris Sale as my top pitching option tonight.

Pitcher Rating: 90.9


Ariel Pena : FD: $5,900 — DK: $4,100

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 23.0 — SIERA: 4.58 — ERA: 3.91 — K%: 21.2% — BB%: 12.1% — HR/9: 0.4
Last 30 Days: IP: 23.0 — SIERA: 4.58 — ERA: 3.91 — K%: 21.2% — BB%: 12.1% — HR/9: 0.4

Chicago Cubs Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 24.1% (Rank: 30)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 24.2% (Rank: 28)
Pitches per PA: 3.98 (Rank: 1)

Analysis: Pena has not had a ton of success in his short stint in the majors, posting a 4.58 SIERA with a walk rate of 12.1%. The Cubs technically still have something to play for, so he will likely have to face their usual lineup. There is more risk than potential reward for Pena tonight at home.

Pitcher Rating: 53.7

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

As mentioned above, there is still a small chance that the Cubs could catch the Pirates. You never know with Joe Maddon, but I’m expecting their everyday starters to be in the lineup tonight against Ariel Pena, who has allowed a .412 wOBA to left-handed hitters.

Elite Plays:

Kyle Schwarber : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,400

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: C/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 199 — wOBA: 0.413 — ISO: 0.297 — wRC+: 164
Last 30 Days: PA: 77 — wOBA: 0.305 — ISO: 0.156 — wRC+: 90

Dexter Fowler : FD: $2,800 — DK: $4,200

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 907 — wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.148 — wRC+: 106
Last 30 Days: PA: 117 — wOBA: 0.279 — ISO: 0.117 — wRC+: 73

Secondary Plays:

Anthony Rizzo : FD: $4,400 — DK: $5,200

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 930 — wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.254 — wRC+: 147
Last 30 Days: PA: 119 — wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.202 — wRC+: 128

Miguel Montero : FD: $2,400 — DK: $3,600

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 785 — wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.142 — wRC+: 103
Last 30 Days: PA: 71 — wOBA: 0.327 — ISO: 0.066 — wRC+: 106


Milwaukee

Even though Jake Arrieta may not throw more than 80-85 pitches tonight, that could very well get him through six or seven innings. For that reason, I will be avoiding the Brewers’ offense. Arrieta has been dominant against hitters from both sides of the plate.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

NONE


Houston at Arizona – 9:40 PM EST

Houston Arizona
houstonmlb Dallas Keuchel arizonamlb Rubby De La Rosa
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU (-158) 8
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.204 0.526 0.234 0.253 SP vs. Left 0.305 0.898 0.386 0.147
SP vs. Right 0.238 0.633 0.281 0.2 SP vs. Right 0.23 0.667 0.292 0.213
Batter Splits HOU BvP HOU vs R Batter Splits ARI BvP ARI vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Dallas Keuchel : FD: $11,200 — DK: $11,300

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 426.0 — SIERA: 2.94 — ERA: 2.68 — K%: 21.2% — BB%: 5.7% — HR/9: 0.6
Last 30 Days: IP: 40.1 — SIERA: 2.53 — ERA: 3.35 — K%: 29.6% — BB%: 4.9% — HR/9: 1.6

Arizona Diamondbacks Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 11) — Strikeout Rate: 21.5% (Rank: 17)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 11) — Strikeout Rate: 20.4% (Rank: 11)
Pitches per PA: 3.72 (Rank: 28)

Analysis: The Astros currently hold a one-game lead over the Angels for the last Wildcard spot in the American League. They have as much to play for as any team on the schedule tonight. The good news for Astros’ fans is that their ace will be on the mound tonight. Keuchel has been in great form recently, posting a 2.53 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29.6% over the last month of play. Keuchel doesn’t have the most appealing matchup on the board, but he has good strikeout potential and he should see plenty of run support.

Pitcher Rating: 90.5


Rubby De La Rosa : FD: $6,500 — DK: $6,300

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 287.1 — SIERA: 4.18 — ERA: 4.51 — K%: 17.9% — BB%: 7.6% — HR/9: 1.4
Last 30 Days: IP: 24.1 — SIERA: 4.77 — ERA: 5.18 — K%: 15.9% — BB%: 8.4% — HR/9: 1.5

Houston Astros Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 23.7% (Rank: 29)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.375 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 8)
Pitches per PA: 3.87 (Rank: 8)

Analysis: De La Rosa has not been in the best of form, posting a 4.77 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.9% over the last month of play. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Astros, who have the highest team wOBA over the last two weeks of play. To make matters worse, De La Rosa has to face them at home in the hitter-friendly confines of Chase Field.

Pitcher Rating: 49.4

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros are in a must-win situation tonight against Rubby De La Rosa. Their offense has been playing well recently and they have one of the highest team totals on the board. The left and right-handed hitters in this lineup are in play here.

Elite Plays:

George Springer : FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,600

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 522 — wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 118
Last 30 Days: PA: 110 — wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: 0.133 — wRC+: 112

Secondary Plays:

Carlos Correa : FD: $3,400 — DK: $5,000

Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 276 — wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.201 — wRC+: 125
Last 30 Days: PA: 114 — wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.194 — wRC+: 114

Jose Altuve : FD: $3,300 — DK: $5,400

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1008 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.112 — wRC+: 109
Last 30 Days: PA: 117 — wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.241 — wRC+: 118

Colby Rasmus : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,400

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 610 — wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.231 — wRC+: 101
Last 30 Days: PA: 80 — wOBA: 0.376 — ISO: 0.246 — wRC+: 140


Arizona

The Diamondbacks hit left-handed pitching well as a team, but they draw a very difficult matchup against Dallas Keuchel, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA. Avoid the Diamondbacks’ offense in this one.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

NONE


San Diego at LA Dodgers – 10:10 PM EST

San Diego LA Dodgers
sandiegomlb Casey Kelly ladodgersmlb Alex Wood
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD (-190) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.250 0.558 0.256 0.154 SP vs. Left 0.232 0.595 0.265 0.237
SP vs. Right 0.4 1.129 0.48 0.095 SP vs. Right 0.261 0.724 0.319 0.198
Batter Splits SDP BvP SD vs L Batter Splits LAD BvP LA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Casey Kelly : FD: $4,700 — DK: $4,800

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 7.0 — SIERA: 4.30 — ERA: 9.00 — K%: 11.8% — BB%: 2.9% — HR/9: 1.3

Los Angeles Dodgers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 17)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.289 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 19.3% (Rank: 5)
Pitches per PA: 3.88 (Rank: 7)

Analysis: Kelly is making his second career major league start tonight against the Dodgers. I usually like to avoid these young pitchers in their first few outings and that’s what I will be doing tonight with Kelly. On the season, the Dodgers have the tenth highest team wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Pitcher Rating: 37.3


Alex Wood : FD: $7,700 — DK: $7,000

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 354.1 — SIERA: 3.72 — ERA: 3.35 — K%: 20.8% — BB%: 7.0% — HR/9: 0.8
Last 30 Days: IP: 34.1 — SIERA: 3.84 — ERA: 4.72 — K%: 16.7% — BB%: 5.6% — HR/9: 1.3

San Diego Padres Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.296 (Rank: 24) — Strikeout Rate: 23.2% (Rank: 26)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 23.3% (Rank: 26)
Pitches per PA: 3.85 (Rank: 11)

Analysis: The Dodgers have their division wrapped up, but they are still fighting for the two seed in the National League, which gives them something to play for tonight. Wood has been in decent form recently, posting a 3.84 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16.7% over the last month of play. He draws a favorable matchup against the Padres and he should see plenty of run support. Wood is a viable SP2 tonight on multi-pitcher sites.

Pitcher Rating: 77.1

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres’ offense has struggled to score runs all season and we should expect more of the same tonight against Alex Wood, especially if Justin Upton and Matt Kemp are both out of the lineup. Avoid the Padres’ offense in all league formats tonight.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

NONE


LA Dodgers

The Dodgers draw a favorable matchup against Casey Kelly, who is only making his second career start tonight. Left and right-handed hitters are in play here, as the Dodgers have a high team total tonight at home.

Elite Plays:

Adrian Gonzalez : FD: $3,200 — DK: $3,600

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 941 — wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.235 — wRC+: 143
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.303 — ISO: 0.140 — wRC+: 94

Secondary Plays:

Howie Kendrick : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,900

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 875 — wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.104 — wRC+: 107
Last 30 Days: PA: 38 — wOBA: 0.242 — ISO: 0.026 — wRC+: 51


Oakland at Seattle – 10:10 PM EST

Oakland Seattle
oaklandmlb Aaron Brooks seattlemlb Hisashi Iwakuma
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SEA (-180) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.327 0.908 0.388 0.217 SP vs. Left 0.266 0.704 0.307 0.196
SP vs. Right 0.37 1.044 0.446 0.115 SP vs. Right 0.209 0.6 0.262 0.235
Batter Splits OAK BvP OAK vs R Batter Splits SEA BvP SEA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Brooks : FD: $5,900 — DK: $4,200

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 51.0 — SIERA: 4.32 — ERA: 9.18 — K%: 15.9% — BB%: 6.1% — HR/9: 1.6
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.0 — SIERA: 4.28 — ERA: 8.04 — K%: 14.7% — BB%: 6.6% — HR/9: 1.6

Seattle Mariners Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 18) — Strikeout Rate: 22.0% (Rank: 28)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 22.8% (Rank: 24)
Pitches per PA: 3.89 (Rank: 5)

Analysis: Brooks has not had a great season, posting a 4.32 SIERA (9.18 ERA) with a strikeout rate of only 15.9%. Even though the Mariners have not hit right-handed pitching well this season, that’s not enough to warrant fantasy consideration. Brooks should be avoided in both cash games and tournaments tonight.

Pitcher Rating: 45.4


Hisashi Iwakuma : FD: $9,000 — DK: $9,900

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 301.2 — SIERA: 3.15 — ERA: 3.58 — K%: 21.5% — BB%: 3.5% — HR/9: 1.1
Last 30 Days: IP: 38.2 — SIERA: 3.43 — ERA: 2.33 — K%: 22.6% — BB%: 4.5% — HR/9: 0.9

Oakland Athletics Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 18.5% (Rank: 4)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 13)
Pitches per PA: 3.85 (Rank: 10)

Analysis: Iwakuma comes into tonight’s start in good form, posting a 3.43 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.6%. While the A’s have struggled against right-handed pitching this season, they have one of the lowest strikeout rates of any team. I expect a quality outing from Iwakuma in this one, but he’s not really on my radar at his price point.

Pitcher Rating: 80.8

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s draw a difficult matchup tonight against Hisashi Iwakuma, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA over the last two seasons. With a low team total, the A’s offense can safely be avoided tonight.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

NONE


Seattle

The Mariners draw a favorable matchup against Aaron Brooks, who has allowed a .388+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. The Mariners should fly under the radar tonight, making them an interesting stack.

Elite Plays:

Robinson Cano : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,500

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 836 — wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.171 — wRC+: 140
Last 30 Days: PA: 109 — wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.208 — wRC+: 138

Secondary Plays:

Nelson Cruz : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,900

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 973 — wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.251 — wRC+: 134
Last 30 Days: PA: 84 — wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.197 — wRC+: 97

Ketel Marte : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,000

Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 124 — wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.110 — wRC+: 120
Last 30 Days: PA: 113 — wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.165 — wRC+: 131


Colorado at San Francisco – 10:15 PM EST

Colorado San Francisco
coloradomlb Kyle Kendrick sanfranciscomlb Chris Heston
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SFG (0) 0
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.295 0.897 0.385 0.148 SP vs. Left 0.271 0.81 0.353 0.147
SP vs. Right 0.272 0.791 0.345 0.12 SP vs. Right 0.229 0.618 0.276 0.228
Batter Splits COL BvP COL vs R Batter Splits SFG BvP SF vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Kendrick : FD: $4,600 — DK: $4,300

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 335.1 — SIERA: 4.75 — ERA: 5.39 — K%: 13.3% — BB%: 6.9% — HR/9: 1.6
Last 30 Days: IP: 23.0 — SIERA: 5.22 — ERA: 7.04 — K%: 15.3% — BB%: 10.2% — HR/9: 2.7

San Francisco Giants Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 6)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.289 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 23.2% (Rank: 25)
Pitches per PA: 3.77 (Rank: 23)

Analysis: Kendrick has given up more home runs than any other pitcher in baseball this season. We’ve been avoiding him all season and there is no reason to stray from that now.

Pitcher Rating: 37.7


Chris Heston : FD: $6,700 — DK: $7,300

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 179.1 — SIERA: 4.08 — ERA: 3.66 — K%: 18.9% — BB%: 8.8% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.1 — SIERA: 4.36 — ERA: 5.08 — K%: 21.7% — BB%: 11.6% — HR/9: 1.6

Colorado Rockies Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 20.9% (Rank: 21)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.344 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 21.9% (Rank: 22)
Pitches per PA: 3.73 (Rank: 27)

Analysis: Heston has been in decent form over the last month of play, posting a 4.36 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.7%. He draws a decent matchup against the Rockies, who are a much different offense away from Coors Field. The issue here isn’t his matchup, it’s the fact that there are better pitching options on the board tonight.

Pitcher Rating: 68.0

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies have a low team total tonight, as they square off against Chris Heston in the pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. While there aren’t any elite plays here, Heston has allowed a .353 wOBA to left-handed hitters. Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez are both secondary plays.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Charlie Blackmon : FD: $4,600 — DK: $4,700

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 976 — wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.169 — wRC+: 109
Last 30 Days: PA: 108 — wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.134 — wRC+: 88

Carlos Gonzalez : FD: $3,900 — DK: $4,400

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 619 — wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.300 — wRC+: 133
Last 30 Days: PA: 107 — wOBA: 0.368 — ISO: 0.303 — wRC+: 117


San Francisco

The Giants draw a favorable matchup tonight against Kyle Kendrick, who has allowed a .345+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. There are some solid fantasy options in this lineup, starting with Buster Posey, who has a .367 wOBA over the last month of play.

Elite Plays:

Buster Posey : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,200

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B/C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 889 — wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.154 — wRC+: 140
Last 30 Days: PA: 104 — wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.165 — wRC+: 140

Secondary Plays:

Matt Duffy : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,300

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 473 — wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.136 — wRC+: 116
Last 30 Days: PA: 7 — wOBA: 0.403 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 159

Kelby Tomlinson : FD: $3,400 — DK: $3,100

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 115 — wOBA: 0.290 — ISO: 0.058 — wRC+: 87
Last 30 Days: PA: 105 — wOBA: 0.299 — ISO: 0.051 — wRC+: 94

Brandon Crawford : FD: $2,600 — DK: $3,900

Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 787 — wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.180 — wRC+: 102
Last 30 Days: PA: 69 — wOBA: 0.247 — ISO: 0.098 — wRC+: 58


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious