MLB Grind Down: Monday, October 17th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs
Cleveland at Toronto – Monday 8:05 PM ET
Cleveland | Toronto | ||||||||
Trevor Bauer | Marcus Stroman | ||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
TOR -185 | 9.0 | ||||||||
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.299 | 8 | 36.5% | 25.1% | SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.321 | 11 | 33.9% | 19.0% |
SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.320 | 12 | 28.2% | 16.8% | SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.302 | 10 | 29.6% | 19.9% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Trevor Bauer | ||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | |||||||||
Salary: | $7,800 | Salary: | $8,500 | |||||||
FPPG: | 27.1 | FPPG: | 13.7 | |||||||
Pitcher Rating: | 55.1 | Pitcher Rank: | 4 | |||||||
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L30 Days | 6 | 95.0 | 4.11 | 6.39 | 20.3% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 48.2% | 27.7% | 27.2% |
2016 | 28 | 110.4 | 4.22 | 4.26 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 48.7% | 30.8% | 31.9% |
2015 | 30 | 95.6 | 4.20 | 4.55 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 39.2% | 40.7% | 31.0% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 5.14 — K%: 21.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.335
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.50 — K%: 22.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.283
Bauer didn’t pitch great in his start against the Red Sox in the ALCS, but he did enough to get his team the win. He is a mediocre right-handed pitcher and he likely wouldn’t be in the Indians’ playoff rotation if Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco were healthy. He comes into this game as a massive underdog with the over/under set at 9.0 runs. This is an awful matchup on paper, and the fact that he has to face them in Toronto makes it even worse. Bauer can be avoided in all league formats.
Marcus Stroman | ||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | |||||||||
Salary: | $7,500 | Salary: | $8,000 | |||||||
FPPG: | 28.8 | FPPG: | 14.8 | |||||||
Pitcher Rating: | 65.1 | Pitcher Rank: | 3 | |||||||
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L30 Days | 5 | 98.0 | 4.36 | 3.19 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 54.3% | 20.7% | 35.5% |
2016 | 32 | 96.9 | 3.62 | 4.37 | 19.4% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 60.1% | 20.4% | 31.8% |
2015 | 4 | 93.3 | 3.28 | 1.67 | 17.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 64.1% | 17.9% | 21.8% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.12 — K%: 17.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.299
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.98 — K%: 20.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.311
Stroman has enjoyed a nice season for the Blue Jays, posting a 3.62 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.4 percent. He is an elite ground ball pitcher who is usually good at limiting hard contact against him. Given the potential run support, I love his chances of picking up a win. The only issue is his matchup – the Indians were top ten offense against right-handed pitching during the regular season. Stroman is in play thanks to a cheap price tag and the fact that he is such a large favorite. With that said, he may not have as much upside as Rich Hill or Jake Arrieta.
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
The Indians head to Toronto with a 2-0 lead. Even though they are massive underdogs in Game 3, they have to like their chances in this series. They draw a decent matchup against Marcus Stroman, who allowed a .321 wOBA to left-handed hitters during the regular season. They also see a favorable ballpark shift playing in the Rogers Centre. They are the best offense to target after the Blue Jays.
- Indians Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (7 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.175 (9 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.1% (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.83 (4 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.01 (2 of 4)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | HC% vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Carlos Santana | SWITCH | 0.388 | 0.285 | 39.5% | 0.526 | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $4,100 |
2 | Jason Kipnis | LEFT | 0.353 | 0.200 | 38.9% | 0.333 | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $4,100 |
3 | Francisco Lindor | SWITCH | 0.351 | 0.139 | 26.8% | 0.320 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $4,300 |
4 | Mike Napoli | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.242 | 34.9% | 0.178 | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $3,400 |
5 | Jose Ramirez | SWITCH | 0.351 | 0.146 | 25.5% | 0.398 | 3B | $3,300 | 3B/OF | $3,500 |
6 | Lonnie Chisenhall | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.156 | 28.1% | 0.197 | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,100 |
7 | Coco Crisp | SWITCH | 0.309 | 0.175 | 24.6% | 0.381 | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,200 |
8 | Tyler Naquin | LEFT | 0.378 | 0.225 | 40.3% | 0.282 | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,300 |
9 | Roberto Perez | RIGHT | 0.247 | 0.087 | 25.9% | 0.307 | C | $2,100 | C | $2,300 |
Team Averages | — | 0.339 | 0.184 | 31.6% | 0.325 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis
Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall, Coco Crisp
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Toronto
The Blue Jays are in desperate need of a win, and they couldn’t possibly have a better matchup. Trevor Bauer is arguably the worst starting pitcher left in the postseason, and Toronto gets to face him at home in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. They have the highest implied team total in the slate and it’s not even close. We can stack the Blue Jays in both cash games and tournaments.
- Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (7 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.181 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.4% (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.69 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.99 (1 of 4)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | HC% vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Ezequiel Carrera | LEFT | 0.282 | 0.102 | 25.5% | 0.353 | OF | $2,600 | OF | $2,900 |
2 | Josh Donaldson | RIGHT | 0.405 | 0.272 | 41.0% | 0.395 | 3B | $3,700 | 3B | $4,500 |
3 | Edwin Encarnacion | RIGHT | 0.370 | 0.264 | 37.5% | 0.349 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $4,000 |
4 | Jose Bautista | RIGHT | 0.361 | 0.220 | 41.0% | 0.443 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,900 |
5 | Russell Martin | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.173 | 29.9% | 0.283 | C | $2,700 | C | $2,700 |
6 | Troy Tulowitzki | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.196 | 34.5% | 0.290 | SS | $2,800 | SS | $3,800 |
7 | Michael Saunders | LEFT | 0.335 | 0.205 | 38.6% | 0.270 | OF | $2,400 | OF | $2,800 |
8 | Kevin Pillar | RIGHT | 0.291 | 0.104 | 25.4% | 0.326 | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,900 |
9 | Ryan Goins | LEFT | 0.247 | 0.143 | 27.9% | 0.176 | 2B | $2,100 | 2B/SS | $2,100 |
Team Averages | — | 0.327 | 0.187 | 33.5% | 0.321 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Troy Tulowitzki
Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Russell Martin, Michael Saunders, Kevin Pillar
Stackability – GREEN
Chicago Cubs at LA Dodgers – Tuesday 8:05 PM ET
Chicago Cubs | LA Dodgers | ||||||||
Jake Arrieta | Rich Hill | ||||||||
RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
CHC -122 | 6.5 | ||||||||
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.278 | 7 | 29.6% | 24.3% | SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.232 | 0 | 23.9% | 18.3% |
SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.246 | 9 | 21.8% | 23.5% | SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.244 | 4 | 29.8% | 32.4% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Jake Arrieta | ||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | |||||||||
Salary: | $10,000 | Salary: | $10,800 | |||||||
FPPG: | 37.9 | FPPG: | 20.4 | |||||||
Pitcher Rating: | 85.6 | Pitcher Rank: | 1 | |||||||
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L30 Days | 5 | 99.0 | 3.95 | 4.60 | 23.6% | 8.9% | 12.3% | 46.8% | 25.3% | 24.7% |
2016 | 31 | 100.8 | 3.94 | 3.10 | 23.9% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 52.6% | 27.9% | 25.2% |
2015 | 33 | 104.2 | 2.75 | 1.77 | 27.1% | 5.5% | 11.1% | 56.2% | 22.8% | 22.1% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.29 — K%: 27.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.241
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.48 — K%: 23.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.244
Arrieta didn’t have as good of a regular season as he did in 2015, but he looked sharp in his first start of the postseason. He struck out five batters in six innings of work against the Giants in San Francisco. He can’t be too happy with the schedule, as his second postseason start also comes on the road. Of the four pitchers in this slate, Arrieta is the one pitcher that doesn’t have a short leash. There is a good chance that the other three starters don’t make it five innings. For that reason, I have him ranked ahead of both Rich Hill and Marcus Stroman.
Rich Hill | ||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | |||||||||
Salary: | $9,000 | Salary: | $9,200 | |||||||
FPPG: | 39.2 | FPPG: | 20.6 | |||||||
Pitcher Rating: | 75.0 | Pitcher Rank: | 2 | |||||||
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L30 Days | 5 | 86.0 | 2.59 | 2.22 | 34.3% | 4.8% | 10.9% | 31.1% | 41.0% | 34.4% |
2016 | 20 | 91.0 | 3.29 | 2.12 | 29.4% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 45.3% | 35.8% | 28.3% |
2015 | 4 | 108.5 | 2.29 | 1.55 | 34.0% | 4.7% | 11.3% | 48.4% | 35.5% | 22.2% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.04 — K%: 27.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.242
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 1.98 — K%: 32.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.223
Hill has as much (if not more) upside as any pitcher in this two-game slate. However, the Dodgers have been quick to pull him in his first two postseason starts and that will likely be the case again if he struggles in Game 3 against the Cubs. Even though he is pitching at home, this is not a great matchup by any means. During the regular season, the Cubs were ranked second in team wOBA and third in team ISO against left-handed pitching. I like the discount that we get when pivoting off of Jake Arrieta, but Hill is a much riskier play.
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs couldn’t figure out Clayton Kershaw in Game 2 and now head to Los Angeles for an important Game 3. They are small favorites against Rich Hill and they come into the game with the third highest implied run total in the slate. Hill has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters this season, but he has a 6.43 ERA so far in the postseason. The right-handed hitters in this lineup are in play.
- Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.347 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.182 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.1% (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.02 (3 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.38 (3 of 4)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | HC% vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dexter Fowler | SWITCH | 0.380 | 0.187 | 34.7% | 0.455 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,800 |
2 | Kris Bryant | RIGHT | 0.438 | 0.327 | 40.5% | 0.331 | 3B | $3,700 | 3B/OF | $4,600 |
3 | Anthony Rizzo | LEFT | 0.362 | 0.205 | 24.8% | 0.346 | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $3,700 |
4 | Ben Zobrist | SWITCH | 0.367 | 0.154 | 31.3% | 0.495 | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $3,900 |
5 | Addison Russell | RIGHT | 0.343 | 0.245 | 31.7% | 0.253 | SS | $2,300 | SS | $3,000 |
6 | Javier Baez | RIGHT | 0.359 | 0.164 | 30.6% | 0.366 | SS | $2,900 | 2B/3B | $4,500 |
7 | Willson Contreras | RIGHT | 0.365 | 0.189 | 28.8% | 0.598 | C | $2,700 | C/OF | $3,800 |
8 | Jason Heyward | LEFT | 0.267 | 0.079 | 24.1% | 0.336 | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,200 |
9 | Jake Arrieta | RIGHT | 0.379 | 0.130 | 16.7% | 0.176 | P | $10,000 | P | $10,800 |
Team Averages | — | 0.362 | 0.187 | 29.2% | 0.373 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Kris Bryant
Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
LA Dodgers
The Dodgers may be playing at home, but they come into the game with the lowest run projection of the four teams in this slate. They draw a difficult matchup against Jake Arrieta, who held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA during the regular season. They do have a number of left-handed hitters to throw at Arrieta, but I still prefer the other three offenses.
- Dodgers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.331 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.177 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.1% (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.48 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.12 (4 of 4)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | HC% vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Chase Utley | LEFT | 0.334 | 0.152 | 38.8% | 0.325 | 2B | $2,700 | 2B | $3,400 |
2 | Corey Seager | LEFT | 0.400 | 0.223 | 39.6% | 0.277 | SS | $3,400 | SS | $4,000 |
3 | Justin Turner | RIGHT | 0.385 | 0.258 | 37.2% | 0.370 | 3B | $3,400 | 3B | $4,400 |
4 | Adrian Gonzalez | LEFT | 0.362 | 0.185 | 36.9% | 0.335 | 1B | $2,800 | 1B | $3,900 |
5 | Josh Reddick | LEFT | 0.371 | 0.163 | 32.8% | 0.388 | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,700 |
6 | Joc Pederson | LEFT | 0.386 | 0.278 | 41.3% | 0.446 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,600 |
7 | Yasmani Grandal | SWITCH | 0.351 | 0.268 | 39.7% | 0.435 | C | $2,600 | C | $2,800 |
8 | Andrew Toles | LEFT | 0.375 | 0.185 | 32.4% | 0.227 | OF | $2,100 | OF | $2,300 |
9 | Rich Hill | LEFT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.000 | P | $9,000 | P | $9,200 |
Team Averages | — | 0.329 | 0.190 | 33.2% | 0.311 | — | — | — | — |