MLB Grind Down: Saturday, October 10th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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Chicago Cubs at St. Louis – 5:37 PM EST
| Chicago Cubs | St. Louis | ||||||||
 | Kyle Hendricks |  | Jaime Garcia | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| STL (-130) | 6.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.254 | 0.730 | 0.317 | 18.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.270 | 0.704 | 0.313 | 21.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.229 | 0.596 | 0.265 | 21.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.212 | 0.576 | 0.256 | 19.30% |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs L | Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 180.0 — SIERA: 3.37 — ERA: 3.95 — K%: 22.6% — BB%: 5.8% — HR/9: 0.85
Last 30 Days: IP: 32.2 — SIERA: 2.32 — ERA: 3.03 — K%: 32.0% — BB%: 4.9% — HR/9: 0.83
“(player-popup)St. Louis”:/players/francis-st-louis-18881 Cardinals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 19.5% (Rank: 11)
Starting game two for the Cubs this afternoon is Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks had a solid year overall posting a SIERA of 3.37 over 32 starts. He comes into the biggest start of his life in great form. Over the last month (six starts), Hendricks has a solid SIERA of 2.32, with an elite strikeout rate of 32%. The Cardinals are ranked 12th in the league in terms of team wOBA against right-handed pitching and have a 19.5% strikeout rate. Hendricks is the cheapest option on the slate, but does carry enough upside to warrant a play today. Rating = 7.5
Salaries: $7,700 FD, $8,500 DK
Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 129.2 — SIERA: 3.39 — ERA: 2.43 — K%: 19.0% — BB%: 5.9% — HR/9: 0.42
Last 30 Days: IP: 36.2 — SIERA: 3.46 — ERA: 3.44 — K%: 21.3% — BB%: 6.5% — HR/9: 0.49
Chicago Cubs Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.303 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 26.2% (Rank: 30)
Garcia battled a few injury problems this year, but in the 20 starts he did make, he was solid for the Cardinals as he put up a 3.39 SIERA, with a just-below-average strikeout rate of 19%. Over the last month (six starts), Garcia has put up very similar numbers with a 3.49 SIERA and 21.35 strikeout rate. He has yet to pitch against the Cubs this year, but should see a boost to his strikeout rate due to their league-leading 26.2% strikeout rate against lefties. Garcia should be able to keep the ball in the park against the high-powered offense today due to his 61.2% groundball rate and is a great play for a cheaper price if you don’t want to play Greinke. Rating = 8
Salaries: $9,100 FD, $9,600 DK
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
This Cubs squad is going to look to get on the board after being shut out last night by Lackey. It may be tough against Garcia who has allowed a wOBA of only .256 to right-handed bats. This Cubs team does have some power, but is only looking at a team total of 2.92 in this matchup. Today, pitching is king, but Dexter Fowler and Kris Bryant are in decent spots as they have hit lefties well this year.
Elite Plays:
Kris Bryant
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 145 — wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.206 — wRC+: 120
Dexter Fowler
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 154 — wOBA: 0.376 — ISO: 0.141 — wRC+: 139
Secondary Plays:
Starlin Castro
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 125 — wOBA: 0.283 — ISO: 0.058 — wRC+: 76
Addison Russell
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 120 — wOBA: 0.236 — ISO: 0.138 — wRC+: 44
St. Louis
Both games on this slate have low totals so finding the right bats is going to be tough. Hendricks has been solid, but is also a young player, pitching in his first playoff game. He has allowed a .317 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate, which puts Matt Carpenter and Jason Heyward into play. The Cardinals have a 3.52 team total, which is the highest on the slate. If you are not using Hendricks, the Cardinals bats are in the best spot according to Vegas.
Elite Plays:
Matt Carpenter
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 454 — wOBA: 0.394 — ISO: 0.249 — wRC+: 154
Jason Heyward
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 429 — wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.169 — wRC+: 129
Secondary Plays:
Jhonny Peralta
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 462 — wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.111 — wRC+: 107
Brandon Moss
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 113 — wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 130
Matt Holliday
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 200 — wOBA: 0.353 — ISO: 0.125 — wRC+: 125
NY Mets at LA Dodgers – 9:07 PM EST
| NY Mets | LA Dodgers | ||||||||
 | Noah Syndergaard |  | Zack Greinke | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAD (0) | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.236 | 0.690 | 0.296 | 22.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.219 | 0.582 | 0.258 | 22.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.208 | 0.601 | 0.262 | 32.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.211 | 0.582 | 0.257 | 26.30% |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 150.0 — SIERA: 2.95 — ERA: 3.24 — K%: 27.5% — BB%: 5.1% — HR/9: 1.14
Last 30 Days: IP: 27.2 — SIERA: 1.69 — ERA: 2.93 — K%: 36.3% — BB%: 2.0% — HR/9: 1.30
Los Angeles Dodgers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 18)
The start of this series didn’t go exactly as expected, but elite pitching was on display like we thought, as DeGrom was able to outduel Kershaw and his 13 strikeouts. Another top pitching matchup occurs tonight as Syndergaard takes the mound against ERA leader Greinke. Syndergaard has been great recently as he has posted an extremely solid 1.69 SIERA and 36.3% strikeout rate over the last month (four starts). He comes into this game as a big underdog against Greinke and the Dodgers who are ranked eighth in the league in team wOBA (.319) and strikeout at a 20.6% rate. He is a tournament play only at single pitcher sites on this slate as run support should be at a premium and may need a mistake free start to get the win tonight. Rating = 8
Salaries: $10,400 FD, $11,100 DK
Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 222.2 — SIERA: 3.27 — ERA: 1.66 — K%: 23.7% — BB%: 4.7% — HR/9: 0.57
Last 30 Days: IP: 36.0 — SIERA: 3.23 — ERA: 2.00 — K%: 32.0% — BB%: 4.9% — HR/9: 1.00
New York Mets Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 15)
Greinke is the biggest favorite on the board and for good reason. He has had an unbelievable season as he posted that stunning 1.66 ERA (3.27 SIERA) and 23.7% strikeout rate over 222.2 innings. He will now look to get the Dodgers even in this series against a Mets team he faced twice this year and allowed only two earned runs over 14 innings with 16 strikeouts. He is the safest play on the board if you want to pay up for him and can fit him in your lineups against the Mets who are ranked 20th in the league in team wOBA against righties. Rating = 9
Salaries: $12,400 FD, $12,400 DK
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
Taking batters against Greinke has been a losing strategy all year long. He has absolutely shut down right-handed batters this season for a wOBA of .257 and lefties have not fared much better (.258 wOBA). If you want to go contrarian, the Mets bats look to be the route, but it does not look worth it tonight as they have the lowest team total on the slate (2.68 runs) against the best pitcher going today.
Elite Plays:
None
Secondary Plays:
None
LA Dodgers
While the Dodgers are large favorites, this game only features an overall total of six as runs should be low across the board today. Syndergaard has allowed a wOBA of .296 to lefties this year, so Adrian Gonzalez, Corey Seager and Carl Crawford (if batting leadoff again) are all decent plays for their prices today for the Dodgers that feature the second highest team total at 3.32.
Elite Plays:
Corey Seager
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 66 — wOBA: 0.437 — ISO: 0.259 — wRC+: 186
Secondary Plays:
Adrian Gonzalez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 464 — wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.230 — wRC+: 133
Carl Crawford
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 163 — wOBA: 0.306 — ISO: 0.154 — wRC+: 96
Andre Ethier
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 397 — wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: 0.211 — wRC+: 150