MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 26th

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-09-27 17:24:33

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these write-ups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

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Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs – 1:05 PM EST

Pittsburgh					Chicago Cubs
			Francisco Liriano					Jason Hammel
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC (0)					0.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.232	0.657	0.296	28.0%	SP vs. Left	0.232	0.692	0.302	21.80%
SP vs. Right	0.215	0.634	0.285	25.4%	SP vs. Right	0.233	0.694	0.301	24.50%
Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R		Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Francisco Liriano

Liriano comes into this game in decent form. He has a 3.84 SIERA over the last month to go along with a 25.7% strikeout rate. He faces a decent matchup this afternoon in Wrigley Field against the Cubs who continue to strikeout at a high rate (25.9%) against lefties. He is a high risk/high reward option during the day slate. Rating = 7.5

Salaries: $9,600 FD, $9,700 DK

Jason Hammel

Hammel has not been sharp over his last ten starts during which he has an ERA of 5.11. With that said, he does have a 3.85 SIERA and a 24.2% strikeout rate during that span as well. This game features low total of 6.5 with the Cubs being slight favorites. Vegas has this as a pitchers duel and there should be some value in Hammel. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $8,100 FD, $7,700 DK

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates feature a team total of 3.22. Hammel has allowed a .300+ wOBA from both sides of the plate this year. The Pirates are tournament plays only due to the low total in this game.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

Gregory Polanco
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 — ISO: 0.133

Andrew McCutchen
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: 0.201

Neil Walker
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.179

Chicago Cubs

Liriano has kept batters to under a .287 wOBA from both sides of the plate this year. This Cubs team packs a ton of power and is always a decent tournament option, but a bit too expensive to pay up for in the matchup.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

Anthony Rizzo
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.400 — ISO: 0.184

Kris Bryant
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: 0.207

Texas at Houston – 1:05 PM EST

Texas					Houston
			Derek Holland					Collin McHugh
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU (-135)					8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.300	0.733	0.321	20.8%	SP vs. Left	0.220	0.617	0.275	21.10%
SP vs. Right	0.247	0.715	0.308	16.4%	SP vs. Right	0.253	0.699	0.307	23.50%
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R		Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Derek Holland

Holland has been in very poor form over his last three starts. He has allowed 17 earned runs in those starts (17 innings), and has only struck out nine batters. This is a tough matchup against the Astros today and Holland is not safe enough for consideration. Rating = 5

Salaries: $8,900 FD, $5,700 DK

Collin McHugh

McHugh is coming off one of his best outings of the year against the A’s last week (8 innings/8 strikeouts). He will look to continue that momentum today against the Rangers who are ranked fourth in the league in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. McHugh has put up a 3.73 SIERA and 22.8% strikeout rate over the last month. While he is in play, there are a number of better options on the day slate. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $9,000 FD, $8,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

Texas

McHugh has been a reverse-splits pitcher this year (.340 wOBA allowed to righties). This Rangers squad does have some cheap power in their lineup and could be seen as decent secondary plays today.

Elite Plays:

Adrian Beltre
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.301 — ISO: 0.125

Secondary Plays:

Prince Fielder
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.160

Shin-Soo Choo
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.207

Houston

Holland has struggled recently and has allowed a .341+ wOBA to batters from both sides of the plate. The Astros feature a team total of 4.21 in this game and the big righties are clearly in play. Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve are both elite plays.

Elite Plays:

Carlos Correa
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.266

Jose Altuve
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.409 — ISO: 0.150

Secondary Plays:

George Springer
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.381 — ISO: 0.215

Evan Gattis
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.289 — ISO: 0.182

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 1:07 PM EST

Tampa Bay					Toronto
			Chris Archer					David Price
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR (-175)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.217	0.605	0.272	25.5%	SP vs. Left	0.254	0.646	0.284	22.50%
SP vs. Right	0.234	0.633	0.285	25.5%	SP vs. Right	0.225	0.629	0.275	27.40%
Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TB vs L		Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Archer

This should be a fun game to watch as two of the AL East’s best pitchers will be taking the mound. Archer comes into this game in solid form with a 3.50 SIERA and 28.7% strikeout rate over the last month. He is always a high upside pitcher, but is a big time tournament play today against the Blue Jays in Rogers Centre. Rating = 7

Salaries: $12,000 FD, $11,000 DK

David Price

If you are going to play one of the pitchers in this game, Price is in a much safer position. He gets a matchup against the Rays who do have some solid right-handed bats, which have them ranked fourth in the league against lefties (team wOBA of .328). Price has been elite over the last ten games as he has a 2.89 SIERA and 29.6% strikeout rate. He is a top option in the day slate. Rating = 8.5

Salaries: $12,300 FD, $12,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Price has been shutting offenses down recently and this Rays squad has a team total of 3.29. While they do feature a bit of right-handed value in their lineup, it is tough to spend a roster spot on them today.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

None

Toronto

This Blue Jays squad is always in play for tournaments as they can put up a few home runs against any pitcher in the league when they are in Rogers Centre. Yet, the matchup against Archer is tough to spend their high salaries on today.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

None

Baltimore at Boston – 4:05 PM EST

Baltimore					Boston
			Wei-Yin Chen					Craig Breslow
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS (0)					0.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.243	0.628	0.276	16.4%	SP vs. Left	0.290	0.831	0.366	11.00%
SP vs. Right	0.268	0.787	0.339	19.0%	SP vs. Right	0.306	0.893	0.379	19.00%
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs L		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Wei-Yin Chen

Chen has been a serviceable starter this year for the Orioles. He comes into this game with a 3.96 SIERA and average 19.3% strikeout rate. He gets a very tough matchup today against the Red Sox who are ranked third in the league against left-handed pitching (.328 team wOBA). He is a tough play during the day slate. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $8,300 FD, $7,600 DK

Craig Breslow

Breslow looks to be making the spot start today, which means he will not be pitching deep into the game as the most innings he has pitched in the last ten appearances is 2.2. Due to the limitations, he is an easy avoid today. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $4,000 FD, $4,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

This game should be high scoring as the Orioles also feature a high team total (4.56). Breslow has allowed a wOBA of .354+ from both sides of the plate this year. Chris Davis, and Manny Machado are all great plays today.

Elite Plays:

Chris Davis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.399 — ISO: 0.329

Manny Machado
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.378 — ISO: 0.209

Secondary Plays:

Nolan Reimold
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.287 — ISO: 0.147

Boston

This Red Sox squad features a solid team total of 4.44 and face Chen, who has struggled against righties this year (.352 wOBA allowed). Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts are all in play today.

Elite Plays:

Xander Bogaerts
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.398 — ISO: 0.106

Mookie Betts
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.352— ISO: 0.164

Secondary Plays:

Dustin Pedroia
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.209

Chicago White Sox at NY Yankees – 4:05 PM EST

Chicago White Sox					NY Yankees
			John Danks					Adam Warren
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY (-156)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.235	0.708	0.311	12.6%	SP vs. Left	0.207	0.582	0.258	20.90%
SP vs. Right	0.277	0.812	0.353	16.6%	SP vs. Right	0.246	0.695	0.307	21.10%
Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CWS vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

John Danks

Danks is always a good pitcher to pick on as he has struggled for most of the season. He is very prone to the big outing against him due to his 1.30 HR/9 rate and low 16.3% strikeout rate. Avoid him against the Yankees tonight. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $6,100 FD, $6,200 DK

Adam Warren

Warren is making another spot start in this Yankees rotation and due to his likely low pitch count, he is a tough play even against the White Sox. Warren would need a perfect start to reach value today and should be avoided. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $5,800 FD, $4,500 DK

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Warren has allowed a wOBA of .308 to right-handed batters on the season. This White Sox squad should be facing Warren as well as a few relievers this afternoon. Jose Abreu is an elite option at first base as he has put up an ISO of .247 against righties this year.

Elite Plays:

Jose Abreu
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.247

Secondary Plays:

Melky Cabrera
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.134

Adam Eaton
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.359 — ISO: 0.143

NY Yankees

Danks struggles against right-handed bats and has allowed a .351 wOBA against them this season. Alex Rodriguez, Chris Young and Carlos Beltran are all elite plays today as they feature one of the highest team totals outside of Coors (4.63).

Elite Plays:

Chris Young
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.407 — ISO: 0.252

Alex Rodriguez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.396 — ISO: 0.291

Carlos Beltran
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.323 — ISO: 0.187

Secondary Plays:

Brett Gardner
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.135

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