MLB Grind Down: Sunday, August 16th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.
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NY Yankees at Toronto – 1:07 PM EST
| NY Yankees | Toronto | ||||||||
 | Luis Severino |  | Drew Hutchison | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-129) | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.250 | 0.729 | 0.318 | 16.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.770 | 0.337 | 20.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.143 | 0.286 | 0.126 | 28.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.265 | 0.729 | 0.320 | 23.50% |
| Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | Batter Splits | TOR vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Luis Severino – Severino is a top prospect who has looked solid in his first two major league starts. His minor league numbers show a very high upside for this young pitcher, but today is not the day to take a shot here. The Blue Jays offense is nearly unstoppable at home, and you are always better off avoiding them. Pitcher Rating – 5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 11 – SIERA: 3.27 – ERA: 2.45 – K%: 20.5% – BB%: 2.3% – HR/9: 0.82
Salaries: $7,000 FD, $5,500 DK
Drew Hutchison – Hutchison has been a good pitcher at home this season, which is peculiar given that he pitches in Toronto. He has a 65:18 K:BB ratio with a 3.60 xFIP at home against a 45:21 K:BB and 4.68 xFIP on the road. Even with the good numbers at Rogers Centre, it is very tough to trust an average pitcher against this Yankees offense. There are many better places to search for upside today. Pitcher Rating – 5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 125 – SIERA: 3.98 – ERA: 5.26 – K%: 20.0% – BB%: 7.1% – HR/9: 1.01
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
Drew Hutchison has fairly even splits; a high BABIP to right-handed batters make him appear to be reverse splits pitcher, but the peripherals and his career numbers show very little difference in his ability against either handedness of batter. While he has been good at home, this Yankees offense can put up runs in a hurry against any pitcher. I will prioritize their power hitters in a home run park in Toronto.
Elite Plays:
Mark Teixeira – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .404 – OBP: .351 – ISO: .342 – wRC+:161
Brian McCann – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .336 – OBP: .314 – ISO: .230 – wRC+:114
Brett Gardner – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .361 – OBP: .375 – ISO: .163 – wRC+:131
Alex Rodriguez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .348 – OBP: .347 – ISO: .197 – wRC+:122
Secondary Plays:
Jacoby Ellsbury – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .311 – OBP: .335 – ISO: .094 – wRC+:96
Chase Headley – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .316 – OBP: .340 – ISO: .100 – wRC+:100
Toronto
Luis Severino has elite numbers with very low home run totals throughout his minor league career. It will be difficult to pick out which batter from this lineup might have a big day, but with all their power, they could certainly get to Severino early and end up having a big day. This looks like a situation where you could stack the Blue Jays and hope that Severino gets rattled, but I can’t consider anyone as an elite play based on their matchup and high salaries.
Secondary Plays:
Josh Donaldson – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .379 – OBP: .349 – ISO: .253 – wRC+:142
Troy Tulowitzki – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .337 – OBP: .334 – ISO: .170 – wRC+:100
Jose Bautista – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .380 – OBP: .355 – ISO: .298 – wRC+:143
Russell Martin – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .313 – OBP: .303 – ISO: .185 – wRC+:97
Pittsburgh at NY Mets – 1:10 PM EST
| Pittsburgh | NY Mets | ||||||||
 | Jeff Locke |  | Matt Harvey | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYM (-160) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.236 | 0.677 | 0.302 | 10.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.217 | 0.690 | 0.301 | 23.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.263 | 0.729 | 0.321 | 18.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.206 | 0.533 | 0.234 | 22.90% |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jeff Locke – Locke is an extremely dull pitcher with below average stuff whose ground ball rate is high enough at 51% to keep him viable as a major league starter. While he rarely gets blown up, he has no upside and should not be considered in any format. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 124 – SIERA: 4.17 – ERA: 4.43 – K%: 17.6% – BB%: 8.9% – HR/9: 0.73
Salaries: $6,300 FD, $6,400 DK
Matt Harvey – Harvey appears to have things back on track with just one run allowed in his last three starts. That’s the good news. The bad news is his strikeout rate has dropped quite a bit, with a 19.1% rate over the past month and a low 8.7% swinging strike rate. He only has two games since the beginning of June where he has more than six strikeouts. I expect him to pitch well, but given the drop in K rate and the tough matchup with a powerful Pirates lineup, I have to consider him a notch below the other aces on the mound today. Pitcher Rating – 8.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 148 – SIERA: 3.40 – ERA: 2.61 – K%: 23.1% – BB%: 5.3% – HR/9: 0.97
Salaries: $11,300 FD, $11,300 DK
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
No Pirates batters should be considered elite plays against Harvey, but their left-handed bats could have some longshot tournament upside. Harvey allows a high fly ball rate with an increased walk rate to left-handed hitters.
Secondary Plays:
Gregory Polanco – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .326 – OBP: .348 – ISO: .133 – wRC+:111
Neil Walker – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .340 – OBP: .329 – ISO: .188 – wRC+:120
Pedro Alvarez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .328 – OBP: .313 – ISO: .221 – wRC+:112
NY Mets
Locke has interesting splits; he has a much lower strikeout rate against left-handed batters, with a very high ground ball rate. Against right-handed batters, his strikeout rate goes up but his ground ball rate goes down. This lineup as a whole has upside, but none of the Mets batters line up perfectly against the splits of Locke, making them all secondary plays.
Secondary Plays:
Yoenis Cespedes – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .268 – OBP: .257 – ISO: .158 – wRC+: 67
Lucas Duda – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .385 – OBP: .355 – ISO: .235 – wRC+: 151
Wilmer Flores – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .377 – OBP: .353 – ISO: .228 – wRC+: 146
Michael Cuddyer – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .272 – OBP: .316 – ISO: .043 – wRC+: 74
Oakland at Baltimore – 1:35 PM EST
| Oakland | Baltimore | ||||||||
 | Kendall Graveman |  | Wei-Yin Chen | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BAL (-165) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.270 | 0.713 | 0.321 | 14.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.255 | 0.663 | 0.291 | 17.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.271 | 0.769 | 0.333 | 16.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.255 | 0.759 | 0.329 | 19.00% |
| Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs L | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Kendall Graveman – Graveman has been skating by with help from his 50% ground ball rate that is allowing him to keep his ERA in check despite a very low strikeout rate. He has much more downside than upside going to a hitters park to face a powerful Orioles lineup. He should be avoided today. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 106 – SIERA: 4.37 – ERA: 3.89 – K%: 15.1% – BB%: 7.8% – HR/9: 1.10
Salaries: $5,000 FD, $5,700 DK
Wei-Yin Chen – It is very easy to ignore a pitcher with average stuff. But, consistency counts for something, and Chen is very consistent. He has allowed more than three runs only twice all season and rarely beats himself. He doesn’t have tremendous strikeout upside, but against a struggling Oakland team, he has a very high chance of pitching deep into the game and picking up a win. If you need an affordable pitcher with a decent floor, you could do worse. Pitcher Rating – 6
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 137 – SIERA: 3.89 – ERA: 3.21 – K%: 19.8% – BB%: 5.7% – HR/9: 1.51
Salaries: $8,000 FD, $8,100 DK
Batter Grind Down
Oakland
This Oakland team is tough to play against left-handed pitching. They don’t have a lot of right-handed power to use against Wei-Yin Chen, and I’m unlikely to have any exposure to them today. If Josh Phegley is in the lineup, he can be used in tournaments as he has good numbers against left-handed pitching, and Billy Burns has done a good job of getting on base against lefties, but there are many better situations today.
Secondary Plays:
Josh Phegley – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .380 – OBP: .359 – ISO: .209 – wRC+:149
Billy Burns – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .359 – OBP: .383 – ISO: .100 – wRC+:134
Baltimore
Kendall Graveman feels like a pitcher that is teetering on the edge and should be expected to get blown up at some point. His ground ball rate has kept him alive, but a low 6.1% HR/FB rate to left-handed batters is not going to continue as his 4.88 xFIP shows. The Oakland bullpen is very hittable behind Graveman and I view Baltimore as a team to target today.
Elite Plays:
Chris Davis – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .369 – OBP: .335 – ISO: .298 – wRC+:136
Manny Machado – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .390 – OBP: .369 – ISO: .238 – wRC+:151
Secondary Plays:
Adam Jones – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .329 – OBP: .306 – ISO: .192 – wRC+:109
Seattle at Boston – 1:35 PM EST
| Seattle | Boston | ||||||||
 | Vidal Nuno |  | Henry Owens | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BOS (-125) | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.175 | 0.540 | 0.243 | 24.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.000 | 0.111 | 0.076 | 44.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.269 | 0.788 | 0.342 | 19.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.276 | 0.743 | 0.331 | 9.10% |
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs L | Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Vidal Nuno – Nuno has very impressive numbers this season, but most of his work has come out of the bullpen where it is easier to be effective in short outings. He hasn’t pitched more than five innings this season, and we shouldn’t expect him to pitch deep into the game today, even if he pitches well. I wasn’t planning to use him today anyway, but watching Boston put up 22 runs yesterday makes it easy to avoid Nuno today. Pitcher Rating – 5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 44 – SIERA: 2.93 – ERA: 2.64 – K%: 25.7% – BB%: 5.6% – HR/9: 1.22
Salaries: $5,300 FD, $4,300 DK
Henry Owens – It’s too soon to make a judgment on Owens after his first two starts. He has strong numbers throughout his minor league career and comes in as a small favorite today. It is not my style of play to trust a young pitcher like this, but I wouldn’t talk you out of taking a shot as an SP2 in a tournament. Pitcher Rating – 5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 10 – SIERA: 5.53 – ERA: 3.60 – K%: 16.7% – BB%: 11.9% – HR/9: 0.00
Salaries: $5,100 FD, $6,900 DK
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
We don’t have enough data to go on with top prospect Henry Owens, so I’m going to limit my Seattle exposure to Nelson Cruz who is an elite hitter against left-handed pitching. There is certainly upside with the rest of this Seattle lineup in a game with a high total, but I don’t see a good spot to target individual hitters outside of a stack.
Elite Plays:
Nelson Cruz – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .484 – OBP: .450 – ISO: .340 – wRC+:222
Secondary Plays:
Boston
While I’m not going to use Vidal Nuno today, he is also a difficult pitcher to play against with solid strikeout and walk rates to go with his 2.93 SIERA. That being said, he is unlikely to pitch deep into the game and Boston bats need to be considered after the scoring binge they’ve been on in the first two games of this series. Much like the Seattle side of this game, I don’t see many standout individual matchups, but the high total suggests we will see plenty of scoring in this game.
NOTE: Rusney Castillo and Hanley Ramirez are questionable for today’s game, so be sure to check the starting lineup before using them.
Secondary Plays:
Rusney Castillo – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .415 – OBP: .412 – ISO: .163 – wRC+:166
Xander Bogaerts – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .397 – OBP: .423 – ISO: .104 – wRC+:153
Mookie Betts – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .308 – OBP: .306 – ISO: .157 – wRC+:91
Hanley Ramirez – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .331 – OBP: .306 – ISO: .228 – wRC+:107
Arizona at Atlanta – 1:35 PM EST
| Arizona | Atlanta | ||||||||
 | Rubby De La Rosa |  | Shelby Miller | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| ARI (-116) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.300 | 0.884 | 0.381 | 15.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.248 | 0.713 | 0.312 | 16.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.237 | 0.681 | 0.299 | 21.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.211 | 0.622 | 0.279 | 19.40% |
| Batter Splits | ARI BvP | ARI vs R | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Rubby De La Rosa – De La Rosa has seen a sharp drop in his strikeout numbers since the beginning of July, as his K rate has fallen to 13.1% after a strong early season pace. His SIERA is up to 4.72 over the past month. While pitching against Atlanta is a positive situation, it is tough to trust him unless his numbers start to turn back around. The Braves offense is bad enough that anyone can be considered a tournament option against them, but De La Rosa is very risky. Pitcher Rating – 5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 142 – SIERA: 3.84 – ERA:4.55– K%: 19.4% – BB%: 6.8% – HR/9: 1.58
Salaries: $7,100 FD, $7,300 DK
Shelby Miller – Miller continues to outpitch his peripherals with an ERA a run and a half below his SIERA. Looking into his game log makes me nervous, as he has not topped four strikeouts in any of his last four starts. He is maintaining a 50% ground ball rate and pitches much better at home, so I don’t expect him to fall off a cliff, but the upside is not there to reach for. He is a respectable SP2 if you believe he can continue pitching well at home. Pitcher Rating – 6
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 145 – SIERA: 3.97 – ERA: 2.48 – K%: 19.8% – BB%: 8.0% – HR/9: 0.50
Salaries: $8,100 FD, $8,400 DK
Batter Grind Down
Arizona
Shelby Miller loses ground in both his strikeout rate and ground ball rate against left-handed batters. The Diamondbacks lefties can be considered where their prices are fair, and Goldschmidt is a tournament option in any matchup.
Elite Plays:
David Peralta – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .385 – OBP: .367 – ISO: .236 – wRC+:143
Secondary Plays:
Paul Goldschmidt – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .416 – OBP: .448 – ISO: .227 – wRC+:164
Ender Inciarte – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .343 – OBP: .347 – ISO: .122 – wRC+:114
Jacob Lamb – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .329 – OBP: .333 – ISO: .149 – wRC+:104
Atlanta
De La Rosa has extreme splits with a .394 wOBA allowed to left-handed batters. The Braves are dead last in the league in scoring over the past month, so it’s difficult to recommend them, but their left-handed bats do have a solid matchup with a struggling pitcher.
Secondary Plays:
Nick Markakis – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .343 – OBP: .389 – ISO: .084 – wRC+:119
A.J. Pierzynski – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .344 – OBP: .340 – ISO: .156 – wRC+:120