MLB Grind Down: Sunday, July 12th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.
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Cincinnati at Miami – 1:10 PM EST
| Cincinnati | Miami | ||||||||
 | Johnny Cueto |  | Dan Haren | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CIN (-154) | 6.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.183 | 0.536 | 0.244 | 24.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.239 | 0.706 | 0.307 | 21.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.197 | 0.604 | 0.267 | 25.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.246 | 0.706 | 0.306 | 15.30% |
| Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Johnny Cueto – As probably the most coveted starting pitcher likely available at the trade deadline, Cueto will look to keep things rolling headed into the All-Star break. He’ll bring a tremendous 2.61 ERA and 0.87 WHIP into today’s meeting with a Marlins team that owns just a .290 team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Cueto dominated this Miami team in both meetings last season and has posted a 2.05 ERA, 0.74 WHIP and 9.50 K/9 in seven starts since the beginning of June. He’s a top tier option for all formats. Rating = 8.5
Salaries: $11,000 FD, $10,900 DK
Dan Haren – The Marlins will audition Dan Haren to many potentially interested trade partners one more time before heading to the All-Star break. The veteran right-hander has been terrific this season, posting a 3.34 ERA and 1.05 WHIP through 105 innings of work. He pitched very well (in a losing effort) against this Reds team a few weeks ago and sports an impressive 2.98 ERA in nine starts at Marlins Park this season. With that said, Haren has served up a ton of fly-balls this season (47.9 FB%) and his 4.28 xFIP suggests his nice start is unsustainable. Without a ton of strikeout upside, he’s best suited as a secondary arm on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $7,400 FD, $6,600 DK
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
Joey Votto – (LHB) – With lefties sporting a .340 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season, Joey Votto should be a very tough out for the right-hander. Votto owns a .388 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and is locked into a run producing spot in this Reds lineup. 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.388 wOBA: 0.237 ISO: 148 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Jay Bruce – (LHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.331 wOBA: 0.208 ISO: 109 wRC+
Billy Hamilton – (Switch) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.239 wOBA: 0.04 ISO: 45 wRC+
Miami
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Justin Bour – (LHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.37 wOBA: 0.247 ISO: 136 wRC+
Christian Yelich – (LHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.321 wOBA: 0.11 ISO: 103 wRC+
Arizona at NY Mets – 1:10 PM EST
| Arizona | NY Mets | ||||||||
 | Rubby De La Rosa |  | Jonathon Niese | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYM (-110) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.297 | 0.867 | 0.375 | 15.0% | SP vs. Left | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.246 | 0.694 | 0.306 | 23.9% | SP vs. Right | ||||
| Batter Splits | ARI vs L | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Rubby De La Rosa – De La Rosa was smacked around for six earned runs in just five innings against the Rockies in his last start, but had been in cruise control in the four starts prior. He’ll enter today’s game in Citi Field sporting a rather unsightly 4.89 ERA through his first 17 starts of the 2015 season. With that said, he’ll benefit from a nice park shift today and his 3.30 xFIP and 8.18 K/9 both suggest that better results are on the horizon. With the Mets owning the second-worst team wOBA against right-handed pitching in MLB this season, he’s a fine option in GPPs or as a secondary arm on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $6,600 FD, $7,200 DK
Jonathon Niese – Niese was slow out of the gates to open the 2015 season, but has really settled into a groove lately. The veteran southpaw has posted a 2.41 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in six starts since the beginning of May and managed to rack up eight strikeouts (in a losing effort) against this Diamondbacks team in their only other meeting this season. Niese utilizes a heavy dose of off-speed pitches to keep hitters off balance while also forcing a large number of ground balls, but this approach also results in very mediocre strikeout numbers. With the Diamondbacks owning MLB’s third-best team wOBA against left-handed pitching, I’ll be avoiding Niese. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Arizona
Paul Goldschmidt – (RHB) – Not much analysis is needed here; Goldschmidt simply crushes left-handed pitching and is an elite play at 1B today if you choose to pay his big-ticket asking price.
2015 vs LH Pitching: 0.459 wOBA: 0.268 ISO: 194 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Nick Ahmed – (RHB) – 2015 vs LH Pitching: 0.421 wOBA: 0.131 ISO: 168 wRC+
A.J. Pollock – (RHB) – 2015 vs LH Pitching: 0.407 wOBA: 0.211 ISO: 159 wRC+
Yasmany Tomas – (RHB) – 2015 vs LH Pitching: 0.354 wOBA: 0.214 ISO: 122 wRC+
NY Mets
Curtis Granderson – (LHB) – Lefties have tagged Rubby De La Rosa for a .388 wOBA this season and the Grandyman is only fantasy relevant at this point of his career against right-handed pitching. He should find himself in the leadoff spot for the Mets and owns a .849 OPS against righties this season.
2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.371 wOBA: 0.198 ISO: 143 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Lucas Duda – (LHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.321 wOBA: 0.165 ISO: 108 wRC+
Houston at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM EST
| Houston | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
 | Lance McCullers |  | Matt Moore | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| HOU (-116) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.191 | 0.515 | 0.239 | 28.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.364 | 1.059 | 0.446 | 8.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.214 | 0.635 | 0.282 | 22.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.304 | 0.784 | 0.354 | 14.10% |
| Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs L | Batter Splits | TB vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Lance McCullers – McCullers has wasted little time growing accustomed to life in the big leagues and has seemingly made the tough transition from AAA look rather easy. The former first round pick owns a 2.16 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 9.41 K/9 through the first 10 starts of his career and his 3.41 SIERA signals that his success should be taken very seriously. McCullers utilizes a mid-90s fastball combined with a well above average curve-ball to keep batters off balance in the batter’s box, and he’s allowed just one earned run in each of his last three starts. With a matchup against a Tampa team that owns just a .297 team wOBA against right-handed pitching, McCullers is one of the best “bang for the buck” options on the board. Rating = 7
Salaries: $6,700 FD, $7,700 DK
Matt Moore – Tommy John surgery cost Matt Moore the entire 2014 season, but the once promising young Rays prospect has finally battled his way back to the big leagues. He’s shown some rust in his first two starts since returning, allowing four earned runs in both appearances while failing to get through five innings. Moore can no longer sniff the mid 90s with his fastball and control problems have plagued him his entire career, making today’s start against this very powerful Houston lineup a scary one. He’s off my cash game radar today, but he’s shown flashes of brilliance in the past and has enough of a strikeout upside to make him worth consideration in GPP’s against the most strikeout prone team in MLB. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $6,400 FD, $7,000 DK
Batter Grind Down
Houston
Jose Altuve – (RHB) – After a brief slump, Altuve has heated back up and now owns a .342 average thus far in the month of July. Matt Moore is still working his way back to MLB form and Altuve has crushed left-handed pitching his whole career; he owns a .330 average against southpaws this season.
2015 vs LH Pitching: 0.347 wOBA: 0.099 ISO: 123 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Carlos Correa – (RHB) – 2015 vs LH Pitching: 0.438 wOBA: 0.333 ISO: 187 wRC+
Evan Gattis – (RHB) – 2015 vs LH Pitching: 0.267 wOBA: 0.164 ISO: 67 wRC+
Tampa Bay
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
John Jaso – (LHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.579 wOBA: 0.333 ISO: 290 wRC+
Evan Longoria – (RHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.322 wOBA: 0.144 ISO: 110 wRC+
Kevin Kiermaier – (LHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.311 wOBA: 0.183 ISO: 103 wRC+
Oakland at Cleveland – 1:10 PM EST
| Oakland | Cleveland | ||||||||
 | Sonny Gray |  | Corey Kluber | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CLE (-120) | 6.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.216 | 0.613 | 0.277 | 21.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.710 | 0.314 | 27.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.575 | 0.260 | 21.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.215 | 0.552 | 0.244 | 30.00% |
| Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Sonny Gray – Gray has sputtered a bit down the stretch, but he will still take the mound for the last time before the All-Star break sporting an impressive 9-3 record with a 2.20 ERA and 1.01 WHIP through his first 17 starts. Gray completely dominated this Indians team in their two meetings last season, allowing just one run while striking out 16 batters in just 12 innings of work. While he may not have the strikeout upside of his counterpart in this matchup, his 8.10 K/9 is more than acceptable, and Gray should not be overlooked this afternoon. Rating = 7
Salaries: $9,900 FD, $9,400 DK
Corey Kluber – Despite an ugly 4-9 record, Kluber has proven his 2014 Cy Young wasn’t a fluke. Kluber’s 2.61 SIERA thus far in the 2015 season is identical to where it was last season and his .343 BABIP is destined for improvement. His 29.3 K% ranks him among the games elite pitchers and Kluber has been terrific at Progressive Field, where he owns a 2.82 ERA in eight home starts this season. The matchup against Oakland is not ideal, but Kluber is still a fine play in all formats. Rating = 8
Salaries: $11,000 FD, $11,400 DK
Batter Grind Down
Oakland
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Josh Reddick – (LHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.389 wOBA: 0.202 ISO: 155 wRC+
Stephen Vogt – (LHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.392 wOBA: 0.24 ISO: 157 wRC+
Cleveland
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Jason Kipnis – (LHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.431 wOBA: 0.192 ISO: 184 wRC+
Michael Brantley – (LHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.348 wOBA: 0.135 ISO: 126 wRC+
Washington at Baltimore – 1:35 PM EST
| Washington | Baltimore | ||||||||
 | Max Scherzer |  | Wei-Yin Chen | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| WAS (-115) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.232 | 0.655 | 0.290 | 25.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.253 | 0.662 | 0.292 | 17.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.199 | 0.554 | 0.246 | 32.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.250 | 0.739 | 0.322 | 18.80% |
| Batter Splits | WAS BvP | WAS vs L | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Max Scherzer – Scherzer wasn’t his usual sharp self in his last outing, as the Cincinnati Reds got to him early and forced him out of the game after giving up five runs in just 4.2 innings. However, Scherzer will still toe the rubber today sporting a 9-7 record with a 2.12 ERA and 0.80 WHIP after 17 starts. Mad Max has thrived away from D.C. this season, posting a 5-3 record with 1.50 ERA in nine road starts. Scherzer’s 30.2 K% is elite and I’m expecting him to put an exclamation point on his Cy Young worthy first half of the season. This Baltimore team does rank seventh in MLB In team wOBA against right-handed pitching, but also strike out at a 22.7% clip. Rating = 8.5
Salaries: $12,000 FD, $13,500 DK
Wei-Yin Chen – Chen likely doesn’t garner as much attention as he likely deserves, but the Orioles left-hander will bring a 2.82 ERA and 1.10 WHIP into today’s start against the Nationals. While Baltimore has to be pleased with his performance thus far, his 3.92 xFIP and .248 BABIP both indicate that he’s been the beneficiary of some good fortune, and things could turn ugly for him if he keeps serving up 1.50 HR/9. Chen has posted reasonable strikeout numbers this season (7.32 K/9) and, Bryce Harper aside, this Washington lineup is just not all that imposing right now. I don’t love Chen here, but he’s definitely in play on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7,700 FD, $7,600 DK
Batter Grind Down
Washington
Bryce Harper – (LHB) – I rarely recommend a left-handed batter against a lefty pitcher, but Harper is a different story. Harper launched his 26th home run of the season yesterday and now owns a ridiculous .468 wOBA and .309 ISO against left-handed pitching.
2015 vs LH Pitching: 0.468 wOBA: 0.309 ISO: 204 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Danny Espinosa – (Switch) – 2015 vs LH Pitching: 0.372 wOBA: 0.161 ISO: 138 wRC+
Baltimore
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Chris Davis – (LHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.339 wOBA: 0.249 ISO: 116 wRC+