MLB Grind Down: Sunday, July 5th - Page Three

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2015-07-05 14:36:12

Seattle at Oakland – 4:05 PM EST

Seattle					Oakland
			Mike Montgomery					Chris Bassitt
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			OAK (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left					SP vs. Left	0.256	0.704	0.326	0.165
SP vs. Right					SP vs. Right	0.241	0.639	0.289	0.146
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R		Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Montgomery

Oakland Athletics. LH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.299 (Rank: 20)

Strikeout Rate: 17.7% (Rank: 21)

Mike Montgomery has arrived. He was flat-out dominant in twirling a complete game shutout against the Padres in his last start, and he is in the Seattle rotation to stay. I always worry about pitchers when they are young and coming off their first truly dominant performance, though. Oakland’s offense is tough to strike out, and they always give Felix Hernandez problems – as was reinforced yesterday. I don’t think this is the spot to chase points with Montgomery though I like his long-term outlook. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7,600 FD, $7,600 DK

Chris Bassitt

Seattle Mariners vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.292 (Rank: 27)

Strikeout Rate: 22.5% (Rank: 4)

Sonny Gray is still feeling some effects from a nasty bout with salmonella, which means Chris Bassitt is in line to make another spot start for Oakland. He pitched effectively the other night against the Rockies, and he has a similarly favorable matchup here. The problem is that he doesn’t bring enough strikeout upside to the table for fantasy purposes. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $5,100 FD, $4,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

I am neutral on the Mariners bats here. Bassitt tends to limit damage, and he reminds me a lot of Jeff Suppan. He’s a guy that can go out and pitch 6 innings and give up 3 runs almost every time he pitches. That makes it hard to target bats opposing him though there is often one or two guys who will hit him well. I’ll side with the ones who have been currently trending in the right direction.

Elite Plays

Robinson Cano
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.305 — ISO: .137 — OBP: 0.305

Secondary Plays

Logan Morrison
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: .147 — OBP: 0.345

Oakland

Don’t target Oakland’s bats heavily today against a talented, left-handed pitcher. There’s really only one player I like, as he has had very good success against LHP when given the opportunity in the middle of the order.

Elite Plays

Josh Phegley
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.402 — ISO: .232 — OBP: 0.377

Secondary Plays

No secondary plays.

Colorado at Arizona – 4:10 PM EST

Colorado					Arizona
			Jorge De La Rosa					Rubby De La Rosa
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			ARI (-130)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.221	0.628	0.280	0.238	SP vs. Left	0.296	0.866	0.375	0.15
SP vs. Right	0.241	0.744	0.329	0.175	SP vs. Right	0.242	0.682	0.301	0.243
Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R		Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jorge De La Rosa

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. LH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 7)

Strikeout Rate: 20.9% (Rank: 15)

The De La Rosa’s faced off two weeks ago at Coors Field and had a remarkable pitcher’s duel. Don’t expect the same with the rematch taking place at Coors Field Light. Arizona hits left-handers very well, and they are my favorite offense to target today. Rating = 1

Salaries: $6,300 FD, $6,400 DK

Rubby De La Rosa

Colorado Rockies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.331 (Rank: 2)

Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 16)

If I was forced to take one of the De La Rosa’s today, Rubby would definitely be my choice. Fantasy players target hitters against him with reckless abandon, but it seems like that may be clinging to his past quite a bit too much. Rubby has actually been a very good pitcher this season, with a 3.25 xFIP to go along with an 8.32 K/9 that is two full strikeouts higher than a year ago. He is touching 96-97 on the radar gun and needs to be treated as a better pitcher going forward. That being said, I still don’t like him against a dangerous offense. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6,900 FD, $6,900 DK

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Rubby De La Rosa is improving, and the Colorado offense has been struggling mightily away from Coors Field. Even though Chase Field is a solid hitting environment, I will be limiting my exposure to the Rockies today, especially if Carlos Gonzalez remains out of the lineup for a second straight day.

Elite Plays

Nolan Arenado
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.396 — ISO: .357 — OBP: 0.306

Secondary Plays

Charlie Blackmon
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: .196 — OBP: 0.385

Arizona

Arizona is my favorite offense to target this afternoon. Several of their hitters just crush left-handed pitching, and Jorge De La Rosa tends to be ripe for the picking. He was good against these Diamondbacks two weeks ago, but don’t expect lightning to strike twice.

Elite Plays

Paul Goldschmidt
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.480 — ISO: .284 — OBP: 0.468

A.J. Pollock
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.400 — ISO: .186 — OBP: 0.395

Secondary Plays

Welington Castillo
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: .200 — OBP: 0.333

Yasmany Tomas
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: .170 — OBP: 0.321

NY Mets at LA Dodgers – 4:10 PM EST

NY Mets					LA Dodgers
			Steven Matz					Mike Bolsinger
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD (-155)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.000	0.429	0.294	0.143	SP vs. Left	0.304	0.8	0.351	0.187
SP vs. Right	0.227	0.762	0.326	0.227	SP vs. Right	0.237	0.699	0.307	0.245
Batter Splits			NYM vs R		Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LA vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Steven Matz

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 13)

Strikeout Rate: 20.9% (Rank: 15)

The incredible debut from Steven Matz generated a lot of buzz, especially when you consider what he did at the plate. This could be one of those occasions where a player becomes over-hyped after one start. The going probably won’ be quite as easy on the road against a solid hitting Dodgers squad, even though he aren’t as good against southpaws. I’ll take a wait-and-see approach with Matz before feeling comfortable with him. Rating = 4

Salaries: $7,000 FD, $8,300 DK

Mike Bolsinger

New York Mets vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.285 (Rank: 29)

Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 8)

Mike Bolsinger continues to defy the odds and pitch much better than anyone expected when he was called up from the minor leagues. His statistics have been borderline elite, with an 8.56 K/9, 2.76 ERA, and 3.22 xFIP. I wouldn’t expect a correction to come at the hands of the Mets, who have scored three runs or less in ten of their last eleven games. Bolsinger is a solid mid-range target here. Rating = 7.5

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The New York offense is simply too inconsistent to trust right now. Being forced to rely on their offense is not a position I want to be in right now.

Elite Plays

No elite plays.

Secondary Plays

Lucas Duda
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: .163 — OBP: 0.352

LA Dodgers

As I wrote above, I will be taking a wait-and-see approach with Steven Matz. I could see him really struggling in this matchup, or I could see him dominating a lineup that often struggles with LHP. Don’t go all out with Dodgers today, but I don’t hate their right-handed bats.

Elite Plays

Yasiel Puig
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.477 — ISO: .217 — OBP: 0.517

Secondary Plays

Scott Van Slyke
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.400 — ISO: .242 — OBP: 0.415

LA Angels at Texas – 7:05 PM EST

LA Angels					Texas
			C.J. Wilson					Colby Lewis
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAA (-105)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.217	0.634	0.287	0.234	SP vs. Left	0.296	0.825	0.357	0.144
SP vs. Right	0.257	0.729	0.324	0.193	SP vs. Right	0.263	0.755	0.328	0.221
Batter Splits	LAA BvP		ANA vs R		Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

C.J. Wilson

Texas Rangers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.298 (Rank: 23)

Strikeout Rate: 23.8% (Rank: 5)

It’s hard to stomach actually watching C.J. Wilson pitch, as his nit-picking ways are extremely frustrating for fantasy owners. That being said, he brings some intriguing upside to the board here today. Texas has a left-handed dominant offense, and most of their power bats hit from that side. If Wilson is on his game, I could see him being a top-three starting pitching option today. I could also see him making an early exit. For GPP’s, feel free to take the chance. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7,900 FD, $7,400 DK

Colby Lewis

Los Angeles Angels vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.301 (Rank: 22)

Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 16)

Colby Lewis has been getting some wins for the Rangers this year, but don’t let that won-loss record fool you. He still can’t get left-handed hitters out and he’s not dominating opposing lineups by any means. The Angels have scored 8+ runs in each of the last two games and are hitting well right now. Stay away. Rating = 2.5

Salaries: $6,600 FD, $7,300 DK

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

You already know where I am going here. Colby Lewis has allowed a .333 wOBA to LHB’s this season (.267 for RHB’s), and the splits are .358 and .314, respectively, for his career. Take the left-handed hitters for the Angels today. They’re all hitting very well right now, too.

Elite Plays

Kole Calhoun
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.300 — ISO: .123 — OBP: 0.305

Secondary Plays

Mike Trout
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.403 — ISO: .278 — OBP: 0.388

Matt Joyce
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.275 — ISO: .129 — OBP: 0.288

Texas

This offense got shut down by Hector Santiago last night, and it’s hard to figure out who to pick out from the crew against another high-upside lefty in C.J. Wilson. There isn’t a lot to love outside of Adrian Beltre historical success against LHP.

Elite Plays

No elite plays.

Secondary Plays

Adrian Beltre
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: .188 — OBP: 0.298

San Francisco at Washington – 8:00 PM EST

San Francisco					Washington
			Ryan Vogelsong					Jordan Zimmermann
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS (-160)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.276	0.811	0.355	0.190	SP vs. Left	0.272	0.688	0.305	0.189
SP vs. Right	0.223	0.669	0.297	0.181	SP vs. Right	0.234	0.597	0.265	0.224
Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SF vs R		Batter Splits	WAS BvP		WAS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Ryan Vogelsong

Washington Nationals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 14)

Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 7)

The Washington bats have been streaky all year long, and it appears that they are finding a groove now. They roughed up Madison Bumgarner on Independence Day and match up well against Ryan Vogelsong, who has been hit-or-miss himself for a good chunk of the season. I can see this going in a number of different directions, and for that reason Vogelsong is a GPP option on multi-pitcher sites only. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6,800 FD, $6,200 DK

Jordan Zimmermann

San Francisco Giants vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.326 (Rank: 5)

Strikeout Rate: 17.6% (Rank: 26)

After struggling for the first month and a half of the season, Jordan Zimmermann has picked it up of late. He has lowered his ERA from 4.20 to 3.16 in his last eight starts, and he had a K/BB ratio of 28/5 in six June starts, with zero walks in each of his last two outings. The Giants are a well-above average hitting team against RHP, but I like Zimmermann as a sneaky option here at home. Rating = 7

Salaries: $8,600 FD, $9,200 DK

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

I really don’t like the Giants in this spot. Zimmermann does a good job of limiting the damage, and the Giants lack of pop as a team doesn’t inspire much confidence for me.

Elite Plays

No recommended plays.

Washington

A hot streak appears to be afoot for these Washington bats, and it all centers around the dynamic Bryce Harper in the middle of the order. Ryan Vogelsong does get touched up at times, and this could be a good spot for the Nationals in prime time.

Elite Plays

Bryce Harper
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.498 — ISO: .276 — OBP: 0.463

Secondary Plays

Wilson Ramos
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.298 — ISO: .158 — OBP: 0.278

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