MLB Grind Down: Sunday, July 5th

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2015-07-07 16:38:53

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.

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Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM EST

Tampa Bay					NY Yankees
			Erasmo Ramirez					Ivan Nova
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY (-128)					8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.237	0.682	0.307	19.6%	SP vs. Left	0.309	0.761	0.335	10.30%
SP vs. Right	0.270	0.000	0.353	18.7%	SP vs. Right	0.333	0.000	0.495	18.30%
Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TB vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Erasmo Ramirez

New York Yankees vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.329 (Rank: 3)

Strikeout Rate: 18.8% (Rank: 23)

After struggling throughout his first few years in the major leagues, Erasmo Ramirez is finally showing some consistency in 2015. He has improved his walk rate and is striking out more batters than he has in any of his first three seasons. His xFIP of 3.92 is also his career best. That being said, this is not the right matchup for him in Yankee Stadium against a team that hits RHP well. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6,200 FD, $5,200 DK

Ivan Nova

Tampa Bay Rays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.293 (Rank: 25)

Strikeout Rate: 22.1% (Rank: 6)

It’s still tough to tell what to expect from Ivan Nova moving forward, as he is coming off a lengthy absence and has only made a pair of starts. This is an enticing matchup, but I can’t trust him just yet. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6,900 FD, $6,700 DK

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Given their offensive struggles of late, I won’t be targeting too many Tampa Bay hitters in this contest. The majority of their middle-of-the-order hitters are better suited when facing a left-handed starter.

Elite Plays

No elite plays

Secondary Plays

David DeJesus
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: .128 — OBP: 0.330

NY Yankees

Most daily players will probably flock to the Yankees as one of the top offenses of the day. I don’t necessarily disagree with this, but Erasmo Ramirez recent success does give me some cause for concern. The Yankees aren’t my favorite stack, but they are in play in small doses for me here.

Elite Plays

Brett Gardner
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: .176 — OBP: 0.380

Secondary Plays

Brian McCann
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: .229 — OBP: 0.346

Toronto at Detroit – 1:08 PM EST

Toronto					Detroit
			Marco Estrada					Justin Verlander
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR (-109)					9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.224	0.702	0.309	19.1%	SP vs. Left	0.241	0.705	0.312	18.90%
SP vs. Right	0.233	0.737	0.323	21.6%	SP vs. Right	0.312	0.000	0.369	14.60%
Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R		Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Marco Estrada

Detroit Tigers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.325 (Rank: 6)

Strikeout Rate: 19.2% (Rank: 20)

After flirting with no-hitters in back-to-back starts, many fantasy players got tricked into starting Marco Estrada in his last start. Predictably, he was a disappointment. He’s been an enigma throughout his entire career. Don’t think about using him against a Detroit team that is hitting well right now, despite the recent loss of Miguel Cabrera Rating = 3

Salaries: $7,900 FD, $6,300 DK

Justin Verlander

Toronto Blue Jays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.329 (Rank: 3)

Strikeout Rate: 19.5% (Rank: 18)

Justin Verlander is no longer the pitcher he once was, as batters are making hard contact against him every time he takes the mound. He’s an easy avoid against the Blue Jays, who ranked third in the league in wOBA against RHP. Rating = 3

Salaries: $7,700 FD, $7,500 DK

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

You won’t find too many of the Toronto bats on the cheap, so choosing the right ones becomes more paramount. They should be able to do some damage against Verlander, and I like the power bats that tend to fare just as well against RHP.

Elite Plays

Edwin Encarnacion
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: .247 — OBP: 0.314

Jose Bautista
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.376 — ISO: .269 — OBP: 0.376

Secondary Plays

Jose Reyes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 — ISO: .114 — OBP: 0.324

Kevin Pillar
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.309 — ISO: .134 — OBP: 0.303

Detroit

Marco Estrada bugaboo has always been the long ball. Walks and home runs do him in when he struggles, so the prime plays here are the power bats for Detroit. There may also be some value to be had given the absence of Cabrera for the next 6-8 weeks.

Elite Plays

Yoenis Cespedes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: .186 — OBP: 0.340

J.D. Martinez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.383 — ISO: .270 — OBP: 0.333

Secondary Plays

Alex Avila
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: .152 — OBP: 0.417

Milwaukee at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM EST

Milwaukee					Cincinnati
			Taylor Jungmann					Mike Leake
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CIN (-113)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.281	0.700	0.314	20.6%	SP vs. Left	0.281	0.797	0.348	14.40%
SP vs. Right	0.212	0.697	0.308	17.0%	SP vs. Right	0.236	0.671	0.293	20.00%
Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R		Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Taylor Jungmann

Cincinnati Reds vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 16)

Strikeout Rate: 18.3% (Rank: 25)

This could be one of the more interesting sleeper plays of the day. The Reds rank below average in most offensive categories against right-handed pitching, and Taylor Jungmann has been surprising effective since receiving his call-up to the big leagues. He is learning to attack the zone better instead of nibbling when he gets ahead in counts, and this is showing in his results. There is some risk here, especially given that it’s a road start, but Jungmann is an intriguing tournament play today. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $5,700 FD, $5,900 DK

Mike Leake

Milwaukee Brewers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 19)

Strikeout Rate: 20.4% (Rank: 10)

Mike Leake has never been a pitcher I like to target for daily fantasy games, and that won’t change this afternoon. The Brewers are arguably the hottest offense in the league right now, and they are fully healthy for the first time this season. Leake’s 5.41 K/9 rate only cements the conclusion. There’s no upside here. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6,100 FD, $6,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Milwaukee is on a roll right now, and you seemingly can’t go wrong with their offensive weapons these days. They have scored 36 runs in 4 games this month and have the good vibes rolling.

Elite Plays

Ryan Braun
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: .228 — OBP: 0.333

Gerardo Parra
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: .166 — OBP: 0.338

Secondary Plays

Carlos Gomez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: .173 — OBP: 0.316

Cincinnati

As I wrote above, I really like Jungmann as a value hurler this afternoon. For that reason, I am somewhat cool on the Reds’ bats though the left-handed hitters are definitely in play.

Elite Plays

Joey Votto
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: .241 — OBP: 0.388

Secondary Plays

Jay Bruce
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.314 — ISO: .186 — OBP: 0.318

Philadelphia at Atlanta – 1:35 PM EST

Philadelphia					Atlanta
			Cole Hamels					Shelby Miller
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			ATL (-120)					6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.189	0.570	0.265	22.1%	SP vs. Left	0.243	0.705	0.309	16.30%
SP vs. Right	0.235	0.656	0.289	25.1%	SP vs. Right	0.206	0.614	0.275	18.70%
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R		Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Cole Hamels

Atlanta Braves vs. LH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.281 (Rank: 28)

Strikeout Rate: 22.5% (Rank: 11)

The traditional school of thought when it comes to taking pitchers against Atlanta is that the upside is capped because Atlanta doesn’t strike out a whole lot. However, they have been striking out with increasing frequency of late, especially against left-handed pitching. The offense is much weaker without Freddie Freeman, and it’s hard to see them having any sustained success against a good pitcher like Cole Hamels. He is arguably today’s top pitching option. Rating = 9

Salaries: $9,800 FD, $10,600 DK

Shelby Miller

Philadelphia Phillies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.282 (Rank: 30)

Strikeout Rate: 18.7% (Rank: 24)

Expect a low-scoring game here. The Phillies rank at the bottom of the league in almost every offensive category against right-handed pitching, and Shelby Miller has been much improved in 2015. His production has slowed of late, and his 2.20 ERA is still quite a bit below his xFIP and SIERA, but he is a safe cash game option against the weak Philadelphia offense. The only downside is that a win will be hard to come by with Hamels on the other side. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $8,800 FD, $8,600 DK

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

I don’t target bats for the Phillies often, and today will be no exception against a good pitcher. However, it is hard to ignore the recent play of both Maikel Franco and Cesar Hernandez. They are in play today if you are feeling frisky in a GPP.

Elite Plays

No elite plays.

Secondary Plays

Cesar Hernandez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.306 — ISO: .096 — OBP: 0.336

Maikel Franco
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: .217 — OBP: 0.331

Atlanta

You probably don’t want to target anyone from Atlanta’s current lineup against Cole Hamels.

Elite Plays

No recommended plays.

Houston at Boston – 1:35 PM EST

Houston					Boston
			Lance McCullers					Eduardo Rodriguez
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS (-108)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.178	0.497	0.230	28.6%	SP vs. Left	0.219	0.652	0.282	26.50%
SP vs. Right	0.194	0.594	0.263	25.0%	SP vs. Right	0.213	0.600	0.271	20.00%
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs L		Batter Splits			BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Lance McCullers

Boston Red Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 9)

Strikeout Rate: 16.5% (Rank: 29)

A pair of young hurlers take the mound in Boston today, and this will be a fun matchup. That being said, I don’t know if rolling either one of these pitchers out there is a recommended play. Lance McCullers would be my favorite of the two, as he brings strikeout upside to the table, and we’ve seen Boston’s bats go quiet at times this year. However, they are swinging it well right now. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6,700 FD, $7,200 DK

Eduardo Rodriguez

Houston Astros vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.315 (Rank:11)

Strikeout Rate: 23.2% (Rank: 7)

After pitching extraordinarily well in his first two major league starts, Eduardo Rodriguez has hit the skids over his last three. Pitchers always make good GPP options against the Astros because of how much they strike out, and the loss of George Springer will hurt their offense against LHP. This is a high-risk, high-reward GPP play. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7,500 FD, $6,600 DK

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros’ lineup has shown plenty of pop against left-handers so far this season, but the loss of Springer will hurt. Despite this hole in the lineup, there are still a few guys that will make for great plays against LHP.

Elite Plays

Carlos Correa
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.414 — ISO: .348 — OBP: 0.319

Jose Altuve
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.361 — ISO: .103 — OBP: 0.409

Secondary Plays

Evan Gattis
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.279 — ISO: .171 — OBP: 0.265

Boston

It’s hard to target hitters against McCullers because he can flat-out shut down an offense when he has things working. I won’t be loading up on Boston bats, but they have several guys who are worth looking at given their improved offense of late.

Elite Plays

David Ortiz
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.394 — ISO: .259 — OBP: 0.394

Secondary Plays

Brock Holt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: .137 — OBP: 0.384

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