MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 11th - Page Two
Colorado at Miami – 7:10 PM EST
| Colorado | Miami | ||||||||
 | Chris Rusin |  | David Phelps | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIA (-145) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.191 | 0.479 | 0.215 | 0.184 | SP vs. Left | 0.238 | 0.698 | 0.312 | 0.188 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.286 | 0.829 | 0.362 | 0.161 | SP vs. Right | 0.287 | 0.785 | 0.345 | 0.163 |
| Batter Splits | COL BvP | COL vs R | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Chris Rusin (FD: $5500, DK: $4900)
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 31.1 — SIERA: 4.01 — K%: 16.9% — BB%: 8.8% — FB Rate: 26.3% — HR/FB: 3.8%
Last 30 Days: IP: 18.2 — SIERA: 3.77 — K%: 19.2% — BB%: 9.0% — FB Rate: 20.0% — HR/FB: 0.0%
Miami Marlins Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.339 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 21.1% (Rank: 15)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 15)
Pitchers per PA: 3.71 (Rank: 25)
Analysis: Rusin is coming off of a strong start against the Marlins, striking out eight batters over seven innings of work while only giving up two runs in Coors Field. He faces the same Marlins team tonight, although this time the game will take place in the pitcher-friendly Marlins Park. While a better ballpark should typically help a pitcher, I’m not very high on Rusin tonight. The Marlins have been very good against left-handed pitching this season with a .339 team wOBA. Rusin is a sizable underdog that makes a decent tournament play at best.
Pitcher Rating:50.1
David Phelps (FD: $5700, DK: $4300)
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 170.2 — SIERA: 4.25 — K%: 17.5% — BB%: 8.3% — FB Rate: 33.8% — HR/FB: 9.9%
Last 30 Days: IP: 26.2 — SIERA: 3.85 — K%: 16.4% — BB%: 4.1% — FB Rate: 28.0% — HR/FB: 19.2%
Colorado Rockies Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.340 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 19.5% (Rank: 12)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.364 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 11)
Pitchers per PA: 3.74 (Rank: 22)
Analysis: Phelps isn’t a high-strikeout pitcher, but he does offer good value at his price point. At $4,300 on DraftKings, five decent innings would be enough for him to pay off his salary. He has pitched well over the last month of play, posting a 3.85 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16.4%. His matchup against the Rockies is better than it appears on paper, as the Rockies are a completely different offense away from Coors Field. At his price point, he’s a decent tournament play tonight on DraftKings.
Pitcher Rating:51.0
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Troy Tulowitzki (FD: $4500, DK: $5900)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 430 — wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: 0.194 — wRC+: 125
Charlie Blackmon (FD: $3700, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 666 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.161 — wRC+: 111
Carlos Gonzalez (FD: $3600, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 354 — wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.202 — wRC+: 101
Miami
Giancarlo Stanton (FD: $5300, DK: $5800)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 175 — wOBA: 0.458 — ISO: 0.358 — wRC+: 196
Last 14 Days: PA: 51 — wOBA: 0.489 — ISO: 0.574 — wRC+: 214
Analysis: Stanton has been red-hot over the last two weeks with a .489 wOBA and a .574 ISO. He has always hit left-handed pitching well and he draws a favorable matchup tonight against Chris Rusin, who has given up a .362 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Stanton is expensive, but he is the top outfield option on the board tonight. Don’t be afraid to pair him up with the other right-handed hitters in the Marlins’ lineup.
Additional Plays:
Marcell Ozuna (FD: $3100, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 162 — wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.184 — wRC+: 121
Martin Prado (FD: $2700, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 176 — wOBA: 0.404 — ISO: 0.198 — wRC+: 158
Jeff Baker (FD: $2600, DK: $2900)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 1B/2B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 163 — wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.169 — wRC+: 129
LA Angels at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM EST
| LA Angels | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
 | Garrett Richards |  | Alex Colome | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAA (-106) | 7 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.197 | 0.544 | 0.247 | 0.229 | SP vs. Left | 0.265 | 0.723 | 0.319 | 0.146 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.219 | 0.582 | 0.269 | 0.226 | SP vs. Right | 0.269 | 0.748 | 0.324 | 0.159 |
| Batter Splits | LAA BvP | ANA vs R | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TB vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Garrett Richards (FD: $8600, DK: $8900)
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 227.1 — SIERA: 3.48 — K%: 22.8% — BB%: 8.3% — FB Rate: 29.5% — HR/FB: 5.4%
Last 30 Days: IP: 27.0 — SIERA: 4.29 — K%: 15.2% — BB%: 8.0% — FB Rate: 29.8% — HR/FB: 14.3%
Tampa Bay Rays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.295 (Rank: 25) — Strikeout Rate: 21.2% (Rank: 23)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.270 (Rank: 28) — Strikeout Rate: 22.7% (Rank: 25)
Pitchers per PA: 3.85 (Rank: 9)
Analysis: Richards is my favorite pitching option in the evening slate of games. While he’s in a good spot against the Rays, that says more about the other pitching options than it does about Richards. He is still looking to regain his form from last season and we’ve seen a major dip in strikeouts. The good news is that he draws a very favorable matchup tonight against the Rays, who are ranked 25th in wOBA (.295) and 23rd in strikeout rate (21.2%) against right-handed pitching this season.
Pitcher Rating:85.5
Alex Colome (FD: $6200, DK: $6100)
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 65.1 — SIERA: 4.52 — K%: 15.2% — BB%: 7.6% — FB Rate: 34.6% — HR/FB: 11.0%
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.2 — SIERA: 4.86 — K%: 13.4% — BB%: 7.8% — FB Rate: 34.9% — HR/FB: 18.4%
LA Angels of Anaheim Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.298 (Rank: 22) — Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 16)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.356 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 11)
Pitchers per PA: 3.74 (Rank: 21)
Analysis: Colome has yet to throw 100 pitches in any start this season. He has been a serviceable starter for the Rays, but he’s not a standout option in daily fantasy baseball. Over the last month, he owns a 4.86 SIERA with a low strikeout rate of 13.4%. He can safely be avoided tonight against the surging Angels, who have the 2nd-highest wOBA (.356) over the last two weeks.
Pitcher Rating:44.0
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
Mike Trout (FD: $5000, DK: $5400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 723 — wOBA: 0.401 — ISO: 0.283 — wRC+: 167
Last 14 Days: PA: 51 — wOBA: 0.398 — ISO: 0.370 — wRC+: 166
Analysis: Trout and the rest of the Angels’ offense let us down last night against Erasmo Ramirez, but they draw another favorable matchup tonight against Alex Colome, who has given up a .319+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. Trout is a speed/power threat with great numbers against right-handed pitching. He has also been swinging a hot bat with a .398 wOBA and a .370 ISO over the last two weeks.
Secondary Plays:
Albert Pujols (FD: $4000, DK: $4800)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 707 — wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.220 — wRC+: 137
Kole Calhoun (FD: $2800, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 589 — wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.174 — wRC+: 124
Tampa Bay
NONE – Since the start of 2014, Garrett Richards has held left and right-handed hitters under a .270 wOBA. The Rays have one of the lowest team totals on the board and their offense can be avoided in all league formats.
Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM EST
| Cincinnati | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
 | Michael Lorenzen |  | Tsuyoshi Wada | ||||||
| Right | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CHC (-142) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.226 | 0.68 | 0.315 | 0.172 | SP vs. Left | 0.226 | 0.657 | 0.292 | 0.188 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.224 | 0.779 | 0.341 | 0.124 | SP vs. Right | 0.257 | 0.764 | 0.333 | 0.211 |
| Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs L | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Michael Lorenzen (FD: $5300, DK: $4500)
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 38.1 — SIERA: 5.44 — K%: 14.3% — BB%: 13.7% — FB Rate: 30.7% — HR/FB: 17.1%
Last 30 Days: IP: 22.1 — SIERA: 5.81 — K%: 13.8% — BB%: 16.1% — FB Rate: 29.5% — HR/FB: 11.1%
Chicago Cubs Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.303 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 25.8% (Rank: 30)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.291 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 25.2% (Rank: 27)
Pitchers per PA: 4.00 (Rank: 1)
Analysis: Lorenzen may have a 3.29 ERA on the season, but his peripheral statistics tell another story. His SIERA is a full two runs higher than his ERA and he has a very low strikeout rate (14.3%) for a starter. While the Cubs do strike out at a high rate, they are always a tough team to target a pitcher against because they average the most pitches per plate appearance, which drives the pitch count up. Lorenzen is a sizable underdog here and he can safely be avoided in all league formats.
Pitcher Rating:35.3
Tsuyoshi Wada (FD: $6300, DK: $6800)
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 88.2 — SIERA: 3.82 — K%: 20.7% — BB%: 7.0% — FB Rate: 40.2% — HR/FB: 9.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 19.1 — SIERA: 3.62 — K%: 24.1% — BB%: 8.4% — FB Rate: 35.8% — HR/FB: 15.8%
Cincinnati Reds Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.329 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 20.8% (Rank: 14)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.355 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 16.1% (Rank: 2)
Pitchers per PA: 3.70 (Rank: 28)
Analysis: Wada has pitched well this season with a 3.62 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 24.1%. He may not have the best velocity, but he has a good changeup and a good slider. The wind is blowing in from center tonight at Wrigley Field and Wada is expected to have plenty of run support tonight. Given the lack of viable pitching options tonight, I have him ranked as my second-favorite pitcher in the slate, right behind Garrett Richards.
Pitcher Rating:67.8
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
Todd Frazier (FD: $4400, DK: $5000)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 205 — wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.213 — wRC+: 124
Last 14 Days: PA: 53 — wOBA: 0.513 — ISO: 0.385 — wRC+: 229
Analysis: Frazier has been swinging a hot bat with a .513 wOBA and a .385 ISO over the last two weeks. He has good numbers against left-handed pitching and he has sneaky speed on the bases. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against Tsuyoshi Wada, who has given up a .333 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.
Secondary Plays:
Brayan Pena (FD: $2200, DK: $2700)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 126 — wOBA: 0.227 — ISO: 0.044 — wRC+: 38
Chicago Cubs
Kris Bryant (FD: $4100, DK: $4900)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 178 — wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.196 — wRC+: 147
Last 14 Days: PA: 48 — wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.119 — wRC+: 117
Analysis: The Cubs are coming off of a huge 12-run outing last night against the Tigers. While it’s tough to expect a repeat performance, they are in another good spot tonight against Michael Lorenzen. Bryant is having a terrific rookie season, especially against right-handed pitching. He owns a .391 wOBA and a .196 ISO against righties this season.
Secondary Plays:
Anthony Rizzo (FD: $4400, DK: $5500)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 642 — wOBA: 0.401 — ISO: 0.264 — wRC+: 156
Miguel Montero (FD: $2500, DK: $3100)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 591 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.137 — wRC+: 100
Chris Coghlan (FD: $2400, DK: $3500)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 493 — wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.192 — wRC+: 119
Washington at Milwaukee – 8:10 PM EST
| Washington | Milwaukee | ||||||||
 | Tanner Roark |  | Matt Garza | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| WAS (-114) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.238 | 0.697 | 0.309 | 0.127 | SP vs. Left | 0.229 | 0.669 | 0.299 | 0.179 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.613 | 0.27 | 0.202 | SP vs. Right | 0.246 | 0.698 | 0.307 | 0.177 |
| Batter Splits | WAS BvP | WAS vs R | Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Tanner Roark (FD: $5800, DK: $5400)
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 235.2 — SIERA: 4.02 — K%: 16.4% — BB%: 5.0% — FB Rate: 37.5% — HR/FB: 8.9%
Last 30 Days: IP: 21.1 — SIERA: 4.24 — K%: 15.3% — BB%: 5.9% — FB Rate: 37.9% — HR/FB: 28.0%
Milwaukee Brewers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.296 (Rank: 24) — Strikeout Rate: 21.7% (Rank: 26)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.288 (Rank: 22) — Strikeout Rate: 19.0% (Rank: 10)
Pitchers per PA: 3.75 (Rank: 20)
Analysis: Roark is one of the cheapest pitching options on the board tonight. While I’m a fan of the matchup against the Brewers (24th in wOBA and 26th in strikeout rate), I’m not a fan of the strikeout potential for Roark tonight. He has a strikeout rate of 15.3% over the last month of play. Roark is a small favorite tonight, but Vegas is expecting some runs to be scored here with the total set at 8.5 runs.
Pitcher Rating:53.0
Matt Garza (FD: $6500, DK: $7000)
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 232.1 — SIERA: 4.19 — K%: 17.8% — BB%: 8.0% — FB Rate: 34.3% — HR/FB: 9.2%
Last 30 Days: IP: 26.2 — SIERA: 4.83 — K%: 13.2% — BB%: 8.3% — FB Rate: 33.0% — HR/FB: 10.0%
Washington Nationals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 20.9% (Rank: 22)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.280 (Rank: 24) — Strikeout Rate: 21.6% (Rank: 20)
Pitchers per PA: 3.76 (Rank: 19)
Analysis: Garza hasn’t pitched all that well in his recent starts, posting a 4.83 SIERA with a very low strikeout rate of 13.2%. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Nationals, who are ranked tenth in wOBA (.314) against right-handed pitching. Garza also has to face them at home in the hitter-friendly Miller Park.
Pitcher Rating:48.4
Batter Grind Down
Washington
Bryce Harper (FD: $5600, DK: $5700)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 456 — wOBA: 0.398 — ISO: 0.249 — wRC+: 155
Last 14 Days: PA: 46 — wOBA: 0.474 — ISO: 0.351 — wRC+: 204
Analysis: Harper was the first player to 20 home runs this season. He will look to add to that total tonight against Matt Garza, who has a fairly high fly-ball rate with an average HR/FB rate. Harper has great power against right-handed pitching and he sees a favorable ballpark shift tonight playing in the hitter-friendly Miller Park.
Secondary Plays:
Denard Span (FD: $2800, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 599 — wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.141 — wRC+: 131
Milwaukee
Adam Lind (FD: $2700, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 462 — wOBA: 0.399 — ISO: 0.199 — wRC+: 155
Last 14 Days: PA: 39 — wOBA: 0.417 — ISO: 0.211 — wRC+: 164
Analysis: Lind is always one of the best value plays on FanDuel whenever the Brewers are facing a right-handed pitcher. His bad splits against right-handed pitching keep his price at a very affordable level. Lind is only $2,700 tonight, which is a steal for a player with a .399 wOBA and a .199 ISO against the handedness of the pitcher that he is facing.
Secondary Plays:
Jean Segura (FD: $2700, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 576 — wOBA: 0.283 — ISO: 0.091 — wRC+: 74
Jonathan Lucroy (FD: $2700, DK: $3500)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 571 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.156 — wRC+: 125