MLB Grind Down: Thursday, October 13th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs
LA Dodgers at Washington – Thursday 8:05 PM ET
LA Dodgers | Washington | ||||||||
Rich Hill | Max Scherzer | ||||||||
LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
WAS -150 | 7.0 | ||||||||
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.232 | 0 | 23.9% | 18.3% | SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.323 | 17 | 31.0% | 25.5% |
SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.244 | 4 | 29.8% | 32.4% | SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.206 | 14 | 29.0% | 37.8% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Rich Hill | ||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | |||||||||
Salary: | $9,000 | Salary: | $8,700 | |||||||
FPPG: | 39.2 | FPPG: | 21.0 | |||||||
Pitcher Rating: | 73.1 | Pitcher Rank: | 3 | |||||||
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L30 Days | 5 | 86.0 | 2.59 | 2.22 | 34.3% | 4.8% | 10.9% | 31.1% | 41.0% | 34.4% |
2016 | 20 | 91.0 | 3.29 | 2.12 | 29.4% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 45.3% | 35.8% | 28.3% |
2015 | 4 | 108.5 | 2.29 | 1.55 | 34.0% | 4.7% | 11.3% | 48.4% | 35.5% | 22.2% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.04 — K%: 27.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.242
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 1.98 — K%: 32.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.223
Hill has incredible strikeout upside each and every time he takes the mound. This was on display in Game 2 when he struck out seven batters in only four and a third innings against the Nationals. In 20 starts this season, he posted a 3.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29.4%. He is my favorite GPP target in this slate, as the majority of people will side with Max Scherzer or Corey Kluber as their starting pitcher. The Nationals do hit left-handed pitching well as a team and they do have some success against Hill in the past, but we get immense strikeout upside at a discount here.
Max Scherzer | ||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | |||||||||
Salary: | $10,400 | Salary: | $11,800 | |||||||
FPPG: | 45.6 | FPPG: | 25.4 | |||||||
Pitcher Rating: | 91.8 | Pitcher Rank: | 1 | |||||||
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L30 Days | 6 | 104.3 | 3.48 | 3.29 | 27.9% | 6.7% | 15.3% | 28.8% | 43.3% | 33.0% |
2016 | 34 | 104.8 | 3.05 | 2.96 | 31.5% | 6.2% | 15.3% | 33.0% | 47.9% | 30.1% |
2015 | 33 | 101.8 | 2.63 | 2.79 | 30.7% | 3.8% | 15.3% | 35.8% | 45.4% | 28.1% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.01 — K%: 30.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.261
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.76 — K%: 31.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.264
Scherzer didn’t have his best start in Game 1, but it wasn’t uncharacteristic, as most of the damage against him came from two home runs. His biggest weakness in each of the last two seasons has been the long ball. He still only gave up five hits in six innings and he struck out five batters. If he can keep the ball in the park, he will likely end up being the highest scoring pitcher in this slate. In 34 starts this season, he posted a 3.05 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31.5%. The main concern here is that the Dodgers’ lineup is loaded with left-handed hitters, but Scherzer has been so good this season that I’m willing to overlook that in a winner-take-all Game 5.
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers
The Dodgers have an awful matchup against Max Scherzer, but they are going to make for some intriguing tournament plays. I expect Max to be the highest owned pitcher in the slate, so you can leverage that ownership by targeting a couple of Dodgers’ hitters. Corey Seager and Justin Turner both took Max deep in Game 1 and if you look at his splits, Scherzer has allowed a .323 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season.
- Dodgers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.331 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.177 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.1% (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.48 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.21 (4 of 4)
Confirmed Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | HC% vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Chase Utley | LEFT | 0.334 | 0.152 | 38.8% | 0.325 | 2B | $2,700 | 2B | $3,500 |
2 | Corey Seager | LEFT | 0.400 | 0.223 | 39.6% | 0.277 | SS | $3,500 | SS | $4,400 |
3 | Justin Turner | RIGHT | 0.385 | 0.258 | 37.2% | 0.370 | 3B | $3,400 | 3B | $4,200 |
4 | Adrian Gonzalez | LEFT | 0.362 | 0.185 | 36.9% | 0.335 | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,500 |
5 | Josh Reddick | LEFT | 0.371 | 0.163 | 32.8% | 0.388 | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,700 |
6 | Joc Pederson | LEFT | 0.386 | 0.278 | 41.3% | 0.446 | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,500 |
7 | Yasmani Grandal | SWITCH | 0.351 | 0.268 | 39.7% | 0.435 | C | $2,700 | C | $2,900 |
8 | Andrew Toles | LEFT | 0.375 | 0.185 | 32.4% | 0.227 | OF | $2,100 | OF | $2,100 |
9 | Rich Hill | LEFT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.000 | P | $9,000 | P | $8,700 |
Team Averages | — | 0.329 | 0.190 | 33.2% | 0.311 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Adrian Gonzalez
Stackability – ORANGE
Washington
The Nationals come into tonight’s game with the second highest implied team total in the slate. Their matchup against Rich Hill looks awful on paper, but they had seven hits and three walks against him in Game 2. They need to stay patient at the plate, as Hill has one of the most deadly curveballs in all of baseball. At this point, it’s hard to fade Daniel Murphy because it is after all, #MURPHTOBER.
- Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.332 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.196 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.9% (11 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.71 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.79 (2 of 4)
Confirmed Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | HC% vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Trea Turner | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.095 | 42.0% | 0.341 | OF | $3,600 | 2B/OF | $5,000 |
2 | Bryce Harper | LEFT | 0.322 | 0.212 | 31.4% | 0.281 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,800 |
3 | Jayson Werth | RIGHT | 0.432 | 0.298 | 46.3% | 0.298 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,100 |
4 | Daniel Murphy | LEFT | 0.383 | 0.219 | 31.2% | 0.000 | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $4,300 |
5 | Anthony Rendon | RIGHT | 0.355 | 0.143 | 34.9% | 0.263 | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $3,900 |
6 | Ryan Zimmerman | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.200 | 39.7% | 0.329 | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,200 |
7 | Danny Espinosa | SWITCH | 0.297 | 0.261 | 40.7% | 0.260 | SS | $2,600 | SS | $3,000 |
8 | Pedro Severino | RIGHT | 0.485 | 0.600 | 25.0% | 0.422 | C | $2,100 | C | $2,400 |
9 | Max Scherzer | RIGHT | 0.146 | 0.000 | 14.3% | 0.527 | P | $10,400 | P | $11,800 |
Team Averages | — | 0.337 | 0.225 | 33.9% | 0.302 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Jayson Werth, Daniel Murphy
Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon
Stackability – YELLOW
Toronto at Cleveland – Friday 8:00 PM ET
Toronto | Cleveland | ||||||||
Marco Estrada | Corey Kluber | ||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
CLE -130 | 7.5 | ||||||||
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.266 | 11 | 26.7% | 22.5% | SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.284 | 9 | 28.4% | 23.4% |
SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.293 | 12 | 36.4% | 23.2% | SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.266 | 13 | 26.8% | 29.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Marco Estrada | ||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | |||||||||
Salary: | $7,900 | Salary: | $8,200 | |||||||
FPPG: | 32.0 | FPPG: | 17.3 | |||||||
Pitcher Rating: | 46.8 | Pitcher Rank: | 4 | |||||||
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L30 Days | 6 | 95.3 | 4.50 | 3.98 | 25.0% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 27.1% | 56.5% | 24.1% |
2016 | 29 | 98.0 | 4.35 | 3.48 | 22.8% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 33.5% | 48.2% | 31.3% |
2015 | 28 | 104.0 | 4.64 | 3.13 | 18.1% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 32.2% | 52.3% | 27.4% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.26 — K%: 20.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.282
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.34 — K%: 20.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.274
Estrada has been excellent in the postseason, both in his first start this year and in his seven other career appearances. In Game 1 against the Rangers (in Texas), he struck out six batters while allowing a single earned run in eight and a third innings of work. He is an extreme fly ball pitcher that relies on soft contact and pop-ups to be successful. While I could certainly see him having another quality outing, he is my least favorite of the four pitchers in this slate. The Indians were one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching during the regular season and they are always a force to be reckoned with at home.
Corey Kluber | ||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | |||||||||
Salary: | $9,900 | Salary: | $10,300 | |||||||
FPPG: | 40.9 | FPPG: | 23.1 | |||||||
Pitcher Rating: | 78.2 | Pitcher Rank: | 2 | |||||||
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L30 Days | 5 | 97.8 | 3.58 | 3.45 | 28.8% | 8.3% | 14.1% | 32.9% | 49.4% | 25.3% |
2016 | 32 | 99.7 | 3.50 | 3.14 | 26.4% | 6.6% | 12.6% | 44.5% | 36.3% | 27.6% |
2015 | 32 | 102.3 | 2.98 | 3.49 | 27.7% | 5.1% | 12.9% | 42.4% | 35.9% | 27.0% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.04 — K%: 26.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.284
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.61 — K%: 28.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.273
Kluber was tremendous in his first start of the postseason. In Game 2 against the Red Sox, he struck out seven batters in seven scoreless innings of work. He has always pitched well at home and he finished the season on a high note. If you aren’t a fan of Mad Max against the Nationals, Kluber is your next best option at pitcher. Even though the Blue Jays have been red-hot in the postseason, they did struggle offensively away from home this year. They also had the seventh highest team strikeout rate against righties during the regular season. The fact that Toronto’s best hitters are right-handed is a big boost for Kluber.
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
The Blue Jays have the third lowest implied team total in the slate, but they are riding high after scoring 22 runs in a three-game sweep against the Rangers. They draw a difficult matchup against Corey Kluber, who held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA during the regular season. We are to the point where we have to take hitters in bad spots though, so a complete fade of the Blue Jays may be out of the question.
- Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (7 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.181 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.4% (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.69 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.57 (3 of 4)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | HC% vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Ezequiel Carrera | LEFT | 0.282 | 0.102 | 25.5% | 0.353 | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,300 |
2 | Josh Donaldson | RIGHT | 0.405 | 0.272 | 41.0% | 0.395 | 3B | $3,700 | 3B | $4,700 |
3 | Edwin Encarnacion | RIGHT | 0.370 | 0.264 | 37.5% | 0.349 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $4,000 |
4 | Jose Bautista | RIGHT | 0.361 | 0.220 | 41.0% | 0.443 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,000 |
5 | Russell Martin | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.173 | 29.9% | 0.283 | C | $2,600 | C | $3,100 |
6 | Troy Tulowitzki | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.196 | 34.5% | 0.290 | SS | $2,700 | SS | $4,000 |
7 | Michael Saunders | LEFT | 0.335 | 0.205 | 38.6% | 0.270 | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,000 |
8 | Kevin Pillar | RIGHT | 0.291 | 0.104 | 25.4% | 0.326 | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,700 |
9 | Darwin Barney | RIGHT | 0.284 | 0.099 | 25.8% | 0.314 | 2B | $2,100 | 2B/3B | $2,400 |
Team Averages | — | 0.331 | 0.182 | 33.2% | 0.336 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Ezequiel Carrera
Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Russell Martin
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Cleveland
The Indians made quick work of the Red Sox in the ALDS, but now have to face the red-hot Blue Jays. The good news for Cleveland is that the starting rotation for Toronto is hittable. Marco Estrada was tough on hitters from both sides of the plate, but if you look at the advanced numbers, they suggest that he was a bit lucky this season. On the year, he had a 4.64 xFIP when facing lefties and a 4.65 xFIP when facing righties.
- Indians Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (7 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.175 (9 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.1% (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.83 (4 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.93 (1 of 4)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | HC% vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Carlos Santana | SWITCH | 0.388 | 0.285 | 39.5% | 0.526 | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $4,600 |
2 | Jason Kipnis | LEFT | 0.353 | 0.200 | 38.9% | 0.333 | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $4,500 |
3 | Francisco Lindor | SWITCH | 0.351 | 0.139 | 26.8% | 0.320 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $4,200 |
4 | Mike Napoli | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.242 | 34.9% | 0.178 | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $3,600 |
5 | Jose Ramirez | SWITCH | 0.351 | 0.146 | 25.5% | 0.398 | 3B | $3,200 | 3B/OF | $4,100 |
6 | Lonnie Chisenhall | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.156 | 28.1% | 0.197 | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,400 |
7 | Coco Crisp | SWITCH | 0.309 | 0.175 | 24.6% | 0.381 | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,500 |
8 | Tyler Naquin | LEFT | 0.378 | 0.225 | 40.3% | 0.282 | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,300 |
9 | Roberto Perez | RIGHT | 0.247 | 0.087 | 25.9% | 0.307 | C | $2,100 | C | $2,500 |
Team Averages | — | 0.339 | 0.184 | 31.6% | 0.325 | — | — | — | — |