MLB Grind Down: Thursday, October 13th


The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs


LA Dodgers at Washington – Thursday 8:05 PM ET

LA Dodgers Washington
Article Image Rich Hill Article Image Max Scherzer
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS -150 7.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.232 0 23.9% 18.3% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.323 17 31.0% 25.5%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.244 4 29.8% 32.4% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.206 14 29.0% 37.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Rich Hill
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $8,700
FPPG: 39.2 FPPG: 21.0
Pitcher Rating: 73.1 Pitcher Rank: 3
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 86.0 2.59 2.22 34.3% 4.8% 10.9% 31.1% 41.0% 34.4%
2016 20 91.0 3.29 2.12 29.4% 7.5% 10.6% 45.3% 35.8% 28.3%
2015 4 108.5 2.29 1.55 34.0% 4.7% 11.3% 48.4% 35.5% 22.2%

Home (2015-16):ERA: 2.04 — K%: 27.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.242
Away (2015-16):ERA: 1.98 — K%: 32.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.223

Hill has incredible strikeout upside each and every time he takes the mound. This was on display in Game 2 when he struck out seven batters in only four and a third innings against the Nationals. In 20 starts this season, he posted a 3.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29.4%. He is my favorite GPP target in this slate, as the majority of people will side with Max Scherzer or Corey Kluber as their starting pitcher. The Nationals do hit left-handed pitching well as a team and they do have some success against Hill in the past, but we get immense strikeout upside at a discount here.

Max Scherzer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,400 Salary: $11,800
FPPG: 45.6 FPPG: 25.4
Pitcher Rating: 91.8 Pitcher Rank: 1
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 104.3 3.48 3.29 27.9% 6.7% 15.3% 28.8% 43.3% 33.0%
2016 34 104.8 3.05 2.96 31.5% 6.2% 15.3% 33.0% 47.9% 30.1%
2015 33 101.8 2.63 2.79 30.7% 3.8% 15.3% 35.8% 45.4% 28.1%

Home (2015-16):ERA: 3.01 — K%: 30.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.261
Away (2015-16):ERA: 2.76 — K%: 31.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.264

Scherzer didn’t have his best start in Game 1, but it wasn’t uncharacteristic, as most of the damage against him came from two home runs. His biggest weakness in each of the last two seasons has been the long ball. He still only gave up five hits in six innings and he struck out five batters. If he can keep the ball in the park, he will likely end up being the highest scoring pitcher in this slate. In 34 starts this season, he posted a 3.05 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31.5%. The main concern here is that the Dodgers’ lineup is loaded with left-handed hitters, but Scherzer has been so good this season that I’m willing to overlook that in a winner-take-all Game 5.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers have an awful matchup against Max Scherzer, but they are going to make for some intriguing tournament plays. I expect Max to be the highest owned pitcher in the slate, so you can leverage that ownership by targeting a couple of Dodgers’ hitters. Corey Seager and Justin Turner both took Max deep in Game 1 and if you look at his splits, Scherzer has allowed a .323 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season.

Confirmed Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Chase Utley LEFT 0.334 0.152 38.8% 0.325 2B $2,700 2B $3,500
2 Corey Seager LEFT 0.400 0.223 39.6% 0.277 SS $3,500 SS $4,400
3 Justin Turner RIGHT 0.385 0.258 37.2% 0.370 3B $3,400 3B $4,200
4 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.362 0.185 36.9% 0.335 1B $2,700 1B $3,500
5 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.371 0.163 32.8% 0.388 OF $2,600 OF $3,700
6 Joc Pederson LEFT 0.386 0.278 41.3% 0.446 OF $2,900 OF $3,500
7 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.351 0.268 39.7% 0.435 C $2,700 C $2,900
8 Andrew Toles LEFT 0.375 0.185 32.4% 0.227 OF $2,100 OF $2,100
9 Rich Hill LEFT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.000 P $9,000 P $8,700
Team Averages 0.329 0.190 33.2% 0.311

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Adrian Gonzalez

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

The Nationals come into tonight’s game with the second highest implied team total in the slate. Their matchup against Rich Hill looks awful on paper, but they had seven hits and three walks against him in Game 2. They need to stay patient at the plate, as Hill has one of the most deadly curveballs in all of baseball. At this point, it’s hard to fade Daniel Murphy because it is after all, #MURPHTOBER.

Confirmed Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.325 0.095 42.0% 0.341 OF $3,600 2B/OF $5,000
2 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.322 0.212 31.4% 0.281 OF $3,300 OF $3,800
3 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.432 0.298 46.3% 0.298 OF $3,000 OF $4,100
4 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.383 0.219 31.2% 0.000 2B $3,500 2B $4,300
5 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.355 0.143 34.9% 0.263 3B $2,900 3B $3,900
6 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.292 0.200 39.7% 0.329 1B $2,700 1B $3,200
7 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.297 0.261 40.7% 0.260 SS $2,600 SS $3,000
8 Pedro Severino RIGHT 0.485 0.600 25.0% 0.422 C $2,100 C $2,400
9 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.146 0.000 14.3% 0.527 P $10,400 P $11,800
Team Averages 0.337 0.225 33.9% 0.302

Elite Plays – Jayson Werth, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto at Cleveland – Friday 8:00 PM ET

Toronto Cleveland
Article Image Marco Estrada Article Image Corey Kluber
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE -130 7.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.266 11 26.7% 22.5% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.284 9 28.4% 23.4%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.293 12 36.4% 23.2% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.266 13 26.8% 29.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marco Estrada
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $8,200
FPPG: 32.0 FPPG: 17.3
Pitcher Rating: 46.8 Pitcher Rank: 4
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 95.3 4.50 3.98 25.0% 11.0% 11.5% 27.1% 56.5% 24.1%
2016 29 98.0 4.35 3.48 22.8% 9.0% 10.9% 33.5% 48.2% 31.3%
2015 28 104.0 4.64 3.13 18.1% 7.6% 9.9% 32.2% 52.3% 27.4%

Home (2015-16):ERA: 3.26 — K%: 20.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.282
Away (2015-16):ERA: 3.34 — K%: 20.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.274

Estrada has been excellent in the postseason, both in his first start this year and in his seven other career appearances. In Game 1 against the Rangers (in Texas), he struck out six batters while allowing a single earned run in eight and a third innings of work. He is an extreme fly ball pitcher that relies on soft contact and pop-ups to be successful. While I could certainly see him having another quality outing, he is my least favorite of the four pitchers in this slate. The Indians were one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching during the regular season and they are always a force to be reckoned with at home.

Corey Kluber
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,900 Salary: $10,300
FPPG: 40.9 FPPG: 23.1
Pitcher Rating: 78.2 Pitcher Rank: 2
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 97.8 3.58 3.45 28.8% 8.3% 14.1% 32.9% 49.4% 25.3%
2016 32 99.7 3.50 3.14 26.4% 6.6% 12.6% 44.5% 36.3% 27.6%
2015 32 102.3 2.98 3.49 27.7% 5.1% 12.9% 42.4% 35.9% 27.0%

Home (2015-16):ERA: 3.04 — K%: 26.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.284
Away (2015-16):ERA: 3.61 — K%: 28.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.273

Kluber was tremendous in his first start of the postseason. In Game 2 against the Red Sox, he struck out seven batters in seven scoreless innings of work. He has always pitched well at home and he finished the season on a high note. If you aren’t a fan of Mad Max against the Nationals, Kluber is your next best option at pitcher. Even though the Blue Jays have been red-hot in the postseason, they did struggle offensively away from home this year. They also had the seventh highest team strikeout rate against righties during the regular season. The fact that Toronto’s best hitters are right-handed is a big boost for Kluber.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays have the third lowest implied team total in the slate, but they are riding high after scoring 22 runs in a three-game sweep against the Rangers. They draw a difficult matchup against Corey Kluber, who held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA during the regular season. We are to the point where we have to take hitters in bad spots though, so a complete fade of the Blue Jays may be out of the question.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.282 0.102 25.5% 0.353 OF $2,500 OF $3,300
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.405 0.272 41.0% 0.395 3B $3,700 3B $4,700
3 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.370 0.264 37.5% 0.349 1B $3,900 1B $4,000
4 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.361 0.220 41.0% 0.443 OF $3,300 OF $4,000
5 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.325 0.173 29.9% 0.283 C $2,600 C $3,100
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.326 0.196 34.5% 0.290 SS $2,700 SS $4,000
7 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.335 0.205 38.6% 0.270 OF $2,400 OF $3,000
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.291 0.104 25.4% 0.326 OF $2,200 OF $2,700
9 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.284 0.099 25.8% 0.314 2B $2,100 2B/3B $2,400
Team Averages 0.331 0.182 33.2% 0.336

Elite Plays – Ezequiel Carrera

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Russell Martin

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland

The Indians made quick work of the Red Sox in the ALDS, but now have to face the red-hot Blue Jays. The good news for Cleveland is that the starting rotation for Toronto is hittable. Marco Estrada was tough on hitters from both sides of the plate, but if you look at the advanced numbers, they suggest that he was a bit lucky this season. On the year, he had a 4.64 xFIP when facing lefties and a 4.65 xFIP when facing righties.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.388 0.285 39.5% 0.526 1B $3,300 1B $4,600
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.353 0.200 38.9% 0.333 2B $3,500 2B $4,500
3 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.351 0.139 26.8% 0.320 SS $3,200 SS $4,200
4 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.338 0.242 34.9% 0.178 1B $3,100 1B $3,600
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.351 0.146 25.5% 0.398 3B $3,200 3B/OF $4,100
6 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.333 0.156 28.1% 0.197 OF $2,700 OF $3,400
7 Coco Crisp SWITCH 0.309 0.175 24.6% 0.381 OF $2,700 OF $3,500
8 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.378 0.225 40.3% 0.282 OF $2,400 OF $3,300
9 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.247 0.087 25.9% 0.307 C $2,100 C $2,500
Team Averages 0.339 0.184 31.6% 0.325

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis, Mike Napoli, Lonnie Chisenhall, Coco Crisp

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious