MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 8th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-09-08 23:46:43

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Pittsburgh					Cincinnati
			Francisco Liriano					Raisel Iglesias
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT (-109)					7
SP vs. Left	0.237	0.668	0.3	0.27	SP vs. Left	0.283	0.757	0.335	0.167
SP vs. Right	0.212	0.627	0.283	0.251	SP vs. Right	0.156	0.573	0.253	0.363
Batter Splits			PIT vs R		Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Francisco Liriano : FD: $10,200 — DK: $8,900

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 321.0 — SIERA: 3.55 — ERA: 3.39 — K%: 25.5% — BB%: 10.6% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 32.1 — SIERA: 4.96 — ERA: 5.29 — K%: 18.5% — BB%: 13.3% — HR/9: 0.8

Cincinnati Reds Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 19.5% (Rank: 8)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.331 (Rank: 11) — Strikeout Rate: 17.3% (Rank: 7)
Pitches per PA: 3.78 (Rank: 23)

Analysis: Liriano has not looked like himself recently. Over the last month of play, he has a 4.96 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18.5% and a walk rate of 13.3%. He’s obviously struggling with his command, but he’s not generating the same number of swinging strikes, which is a concern. At this point, he should be avoided until he can right the ship. His matchup against the Reds is less than optimal, as Cincinnati is ranked ninth in team wOBA and eighth in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating: 75.6

Raisel Iglesias : FD: $8,400 — DK: $8,700

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 87.1 — SIERA: 3.20 — ERA: 3.81 — K%: 27.1% — BB%: 7.3% — HR/9: 1.0
Last 30 Days: IP: 34.0 — SIERA: 2.37 — ERA: 2.38 — K%: 34.9% — BB%: 7.9% — HR/9: 1.3

Pittsburgh Pirates Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.313 (Rank: 16) — Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 21)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 17)
Pitches per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 18)

Analysis: Iglesias has been terrific over the last month of play, posting a 2.37 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 34.9%. The best part is that his price has yet to catch up with his recent level of production. He is a solid play tonight against the Pirates, who are ranked below the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Clayton Kershaw is still the answer on single pitcher sites, but don’t be afraid to pair him with Raisel Iglesias on multi-pitcher sites.

Pitcher Rating: 82.6

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates draw a difficult matchup tonight against Raisel Iglesias, who has been in as good of form as anyone over the last month of play. He has struggled with left-handed hitters in his young career though, so Gregory Polanco and Neil Walker are both viable secondary plays.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Gregory Polanco : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,300

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 659 — wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.127 — wRC+: 108
Last 30 Days: PA: 123 — wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.114 — wRC+: 116

Neil Walker : FD: $2,400 — DK: $3,400

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 873 — wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.201 — wRC+: 126
Last 30 Days: PA: 100 — wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.198 — wRC+: 96

Cincinnati

Even though I won’t be targeting Francisco Liriano against the Reds, it’s hard to justify taking any Reds’ hitters either. Liriano has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters, holding both under a .300 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Todd Frazier : FD: $2,300 — DK: $4,100

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 278 — wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.270 — wRC+: 133
Last 30 Days: PA: 116 — wOBA: 0.311 — ISO: 0.168 — wRC+: 92

Milwaukee at Miami – 7:10 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Milwaukee					Miami
			Taylor Jungmann					Adam Conley
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIL (-118)					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.231	0.615	0.275	0.224	SP vs. Left	0.308	0.909	0.407	0.212
SP vs. Right	0.207	0.609	0.274	0.214	SP vs. Right	0.267	0.788	0.333	0.186
Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs L		Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Taylor Jungmann : FD: $9,200 — DK: $9,200

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 96.2 — SIERA: 3.94 — ERA: 2.42 — K%: 21.9% — BB%: 8.7% — HR/9: 0.3
Last 30 Days: IP: 25.0 — SIERA: 4.42 — ERA: 2.88 — K%: 23.2% — BB%: 12.0% — HR/9: 0.4

Miami Marlins Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.292 (Rank: 30) — Strikeout Rate: 19.0% (Rank: 8)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 16.4% (Rank: 3)
Pitches per PA: 3.72 (Rank: 29)

Analysis: Jungmann has had a nice rookie season for the Brewers, posting a 3.94 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.9%. He is still a bit erratic with his command, but that may not be a problem tonight against the Marlins, who average the second-fewest pitches per plate appearance this season. The Marlins are also ranked dead last in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. While I like the matchup, I’d rather target Raisel Iglesias, who is actually cheaper than Jungmann tonight.

Pitcher Rating: 68.4

Adam Conley : FD: $5,500 — DK: $4,100

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 37.2 — SIERA: 4.24 — ERA: 5.02 — K%: 19.1% — BB%: 8.6% — HR/9: 1.2
Last 30 Days: IP: 24.1 — SIERA: 3.85 — ERA: 5.55 — K%: 23.2% — BB%: 9.3% — HR/9: 1.1

Milwaukee Brewers Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.291 (Rank: 27) — Strikeout Rate: 21.2% (Rank: 16)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.362 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 21.0% (Rank: 23)
Pitches per PA: 3.74 (Rank: 26)

Analysis: Conley has quietly pitched well in his last few starts, posting a 3.85 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.2%. The problem here is twofold. The first issue is his sample size. He has only pitched in 37 major league innings. The other problem is his matchup against the Brewers, who are ranked fifth in team wOBA over the last two weeks of play. Conley may be worth a look in a DraftKings’ tournament ($4,100), but he should be avoided in cash games.

Pitcher Rating: 55.1

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers may not be playing in the best park for offensive production, but they draw a favorable matchup against Adam Conley, who has given up a .333+ wOBA to hitters from both sides of the plate. Hot-hitting Jonathan Lucroy remains an elite fantasy play at catcher.

Elite Plays:

Jonathan Lucroy : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,100

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 244 — wOBA: 0.323 — ISO: 0.129 — wRC+: 101
Last 30 Days: PA: 99 — wOBA: 0.365 — ISO: 0.221 — wRC+: 128

Secondary Plays:

Ryan Braun : FD: $4,800 — DK: $5,300

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 268 — wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.253 — wRC+: 147
Last 30 Days: PA: 98 — wOBA: 0.411 — ISO: 0.250 — wRC+: 159

Khris Davis : FD: $3,200 — DK: $3,600

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 225 — wOBA: 0.306 — ISO: 0.202 — wRC+: 89
Last 30 Days: PA: 95 — wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.314 — wRC+: 115

Miami

The Marlins are small underdogs tonight at home against Taylor Jungmann, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA over the last two seasons. Dee Gordon and Justin Bour are in play, but they are both secondary options at their respective positions.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Dee Gordon : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,500

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 909 — wOBA: 0.317 — ISO: 0.084 — wRC+: 102
Last 30 Days: PA: 121 — wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.097 — wRC+: 118

Justin Bour : FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,500

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 375 — wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.191 — wRC+: 117
Last 30 Days: PA: 97 — wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.242 — wRC+: 131

Cleveland at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Cleveland					Chicago White Sox
			Carlos Carrasco					Carlos Rodon
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE (-139)					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.204	0.567	0.252	0.271	SP vs. Left	0.175	0.489	0.229	0.274
SP vs. Right	0.233	0.627	0.274	0.271	SP vs. Right	0.28	0.842	0.367	0.223
Batter Splits			CLE vs L		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CWS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Carrasco : FD: $9,800 — DK: $10,800

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 292.0 — SIERA: 2.72 — ERA: 3.08 — K%: 27.1% — BB%: 5.3% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 21.2 — SIERA: 2.57 — ERA: 2.08 — K%: 31.3% — BB%: 4.8% — HR/9: 0.8

Chicago White Sox Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 20.1% (Rank: 17)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 18) — Strikeout Rate: 16.5% (Rank: 4)
Pitches per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 20)

Analysis: Carrasco missed three turns in the rotation dealing with a shoulder injury, but he will be back on the bump tonight. The Indians will likely be a little careful with him in his first couple of starts, but there is no reason to think that he won’t throw 90+ pitches. He draws a favorable matchup against the White Sox, who are ranked 21st in team wOBA and 17th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The main concern here is potential rust coming back from an injury.

Pitcher Rating: 83.5

Carlos Rodon : FD: $8,300 — DK: $7,200

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 118.2 — SIERA: 4.16 — ERA: 4.10 — K%: 23.6% — BB%: 12.3% — HR/9: 0.8
Last 30 Days: IP: 34.0 — SIERA: 3.73 — ERA: 1.85 — K%: 24.8% — BB%: 10.5% — HR/9: 1.1

Cleveland Indians Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 17) — Strikeout Rate: 18.8% (Rank: 5)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 16.8% (Rank: 5)
Pitches per PA: 3.90 (Rank: 3)

Analysis: Rodon is finally starting to live up to expectations. He has been very good over the last month of play, posting a 3.73 SIERA (1.85 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 24.8%. He draws a mediocre matchup tonight against the Indians, who are ranked 17th in team wOBA and fifth in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. He makes a very nice tournament play tonight, but there are safer pitching options for cash games.

Pitcher Rating: 58.3

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Carlos Rodon has been very tough on left-handed hitters this season, but he has allowed a .367 wOBA to hitters from the right side of the plate. Ryan Raburn is near minimum-salary tonight and is a borderline elite play in the outfield. Francisco Lindor and Carlos Santana are also worth a look.

Elite Plays:

Ryan Raburn : FD: $2,600 — DK: $2,500

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 288 — wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.188 — wRC+: 113
Last 30 Days: PA: 17 — wOBA: 0.448 — ISO: 0.214 — wRC+: 193

Secondary Plays:

Francisco Lindor : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,400

Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 113 — wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.089 — wRC+: 118
Last 30 Days: PA: 125 — wOBA: 0.414 — ISO: 0.162 — wRC+: 169

Carlos Santana : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,200

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 405 — wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.131 — wRC+: 121
Last 30 Days: PA: 121 — wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.146 — wRC+: 115

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox draw an extremely difficult matchup tonight against Carlos Carrasco, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .275 wOBA over the last two seasons. They can safely be avoided in all league formats.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

NONE

Minnesota at Kansas City – 8:10 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Minnesota					Kansas City
			Kyle Gibson					Edinson Volquez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			KCR (-155)					8
SP vs. Left	0.25	0.683	0.304	0.125	SP vs. Left	0.229	0.694	0.306	0.18
SP vs. Right	0.257	0.703	0.309	0.184	SP vs. Right	0.243	0.663	0.297	0.172
Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R		Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Gibson : FD: $6,500 — DK: $6,400

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 343.1 — SIERA: 4.21 — ERA: 4.17 — K%: 15.3% — BB%: 7.7% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.1 — SIERA: 4.76 — ERA: 4.13 — K%: 15.6% — BB%: 9.8% — HR/9: 0.6

Kansas City Royals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 15.4% (Rank: 1)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.353 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 14.4% (Rank: 1)
Pitches per PA: 3.70 (Rank: 30)

Analysis: Gibson has not been in the best of form recently, posting a 4.76 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.6% over the last month of play. He draws a terrible matchup tonight against the Royals. Not only are they the toughest team to strikeout in all of baseball, but they also have the third-highest team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating: 38.0

Edinson Volquez : FD: $8,300 — DK: $7,100

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 361.0 — SIERA: 4.28 — ERA: 3.27 — K%: 17.6% — BB%: 8.6% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.1 — SIERA: 3.88 — ERA: 5.52 — K%: 19.7% — BB%: 6.3% — HR/9: 0.6

Minnesota Twins Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.300 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 21.6% (Rank: 27)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 17) — Strikeout Rate: 27.2% (Rank: 29)
Pitches per PA: 3.82 (Rank: 14)

Analysis: Volquez is one of those pitchers that is rarely on the radar for us daily fantasy baseball players. He has a mediocre SIERA with a slightly below-average strikeout rate. The good news is that he should see plenty of run support tonight and he gets to pitch at home in the pitcher-friendly confines of Kaufmann Stadium. Volquez also draws a nice matchup against the Twins, who are ranked 26th in team wOBA and 27th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Dare I say it? Volquez is actually a viable SP2 tonight and he’s playable in all league formats.

Pitcher Rating: 63.2

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins are one of the worst offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching and they draw a mediocre matchup against Edinson Volquez in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Miguel Sano is worth a look in tournaments, but he’s the only Twins’ hitter on my radar in this one.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Miguel Sano : FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,900

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 159 — wOBA: 0.430 — ISO: 0.338 — wRC+: 179
Last 30 Days: PA: 107 — wOBA: 0.431 — ISO: 0.366 — wRC+: 179

Kansas City

The Royals draw a favorable matchup tonight against Kyle Gibson, who has been struggling in his last few starts. The Royals should do what they do best tonight: put the ball in play and score some runs. Eric Hosmer is a borderline elite play on FanDuel at a price of only $3,000.

Elite Plays:

Eric Hosmer : FD: $3,000 — DK: $4,500

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 715 — wOBA: 0.353 — ISO: 0.161 — wRC+: 126
Last 30 Days: PA: 114 — wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.147 — wRC+: 111

Secondary Plays:

Lorenzo Cain : FD: $4,100 — DK: $5,200

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 694 — wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: 0.117 — wRC+: 109
Last 30 Days: PA: 105 — wOBA: 0.380 — ISO: 0.146 — wRC+: 143

Mike Moustakas : FD: $2,900 — DK: $4,000

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 710 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.162 — wRC+: 104
Last 30 Days: PA: 93 — wOBA: 0.424 — ISO: 0.338 — wRC+: 174

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis – 8:15 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Chicago Cubs					St. Louis
			Jason Hammel					Michael Wacha
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL (-145)					7
SP vs. Left	0.232	0.685	0.3	0.214	SP vs. Left	0.215	0.59	0.265	0.196
SP vs. Right	0.233	0.694	0.301	0.247	SP vs. Right	0.24	0.665	0.292	0.218
Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jason Hammel : FD: $7,700 — DK: $8,300

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 323.1 — SIERA: 3.44 — ERA: 3.51 — K%: 23.2% — BB%: 5.8% — HR/9: 1.2
Last 30 Days: IP: 25.0 — SIERA: 3.32 — ERA: 5.40 — K%: 25.2% — BB%: 5.4% — HR/9: 2.2

St. Louis Cardinals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 19.3% (Rank: 11)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.330 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 14)
Pitches per PA: 3.81 (Rank: 16)

Analysis: Hammel may have a 5.40 ERA over the last month of play, but his indicators look strong. During that same stretch, he has a 3.32 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.2%. He draws a mediocre matchup tonight against the Cardinals, who are ranked 12th in team wOBA and 11th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. This comes down to other options at pitcher. There are safer plays in cash games and pitchers that have more upside for tournaments.

Pitcher Rating: 69.7

Michael Wacha : FD: $9,500 — DK: $9,900

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 264.1 — SIERA: 3.77 — ERA: 2.89 — K%: 20.8% — BB%: 6.7% — HR/9: 0.6
Last 30 Days: IP: 25.0 — SIERA: 4.12 — ERA: 1.44 — K%: 20.0% — BB%: 7.3% — HR/9: 0.7

Chicago Cubs Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 24.0% (Rank: 29)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 16) — Strikeout Rate: 29.6% (Rank: 30)
Pitches per PA: 4.00 (Rank: 1)

Analysis: Wacha has the opposite problem that Jason Hammel has. He hasn’t pitched nearly as well as his ERA would suggest over the last month of play. While the Cubs do strikeout at a high rate, they have been very tough on good pitchers recently (just ask Lance Lynn). Wacha is in play for tournaments, but once again, Clayton Kershaw is the premier play in cash games.

Pitcher Rating: 75.6

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs draw a difficult matchup tonight against Michael Wacha, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wOBA over the last two seasons. The Cubs should only be used sparingly in tournaments.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Dexter Fowler : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,800

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 829 — wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.151 — wRC+: 110
Last 30 Days: PA: 115 — wOBA: 0.431 — ISO: 0.305 — wRC+: 176

St. Louis

The Cardinals draw a difficult matchup tonight against Jason Hammel, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 wOBA over the last two seasons. With a full slate of games on tap tonight, there aren’t any Cardinals’ hitters on my radar.