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NBA Grind Down: Friday, December 18th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-12-20 13:37:51

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM

New York Knicks Philadelphia 76ers
newyorknba Vegas Total 195.5 philadelphianba Vegas Total 195.5
Vegas Sprd -6.5 Vegas Sprd 6.5
Team Proj. 101.0 Team Proj. 94.5
Team Pace 97.10 Team Pace 99.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Kendall Marshall Isaiah Canaan Robert Covington Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor
Opp. Season 16 5 28 29 26 Opp. Season 9 23 5 5 14
Opp. Last 7 19 19 19 26 29 Opp. Last 7 30 12 6 6 19

New York Knicks

Record: 12-14 — Road: 6-7 — Last 10: 4-6

The Knicks have lost six of their last ten games, but they draw an easy matchup tonight against the Sixers. The Knicks are listed as 6.5-point favorites with their team total set at 101 points. This is a good spot for the Knicks as a whole, especially if Philadelphia is able to keep this game close.

It should come as no surprise, but the Sixers are one of the worst defenses in the NBA. They are ranked 24th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Knicks also see a small boost in pace, as the Sixers average over 99 possessions per game.

Elite Plays

Carmelo Anthony

Anthony has been in vintage form the last three games, scoring 45, 49, and 52 fantasy points. His price has come up on FanDuel, but he is too cheap on DraftKings. He draws a favorable matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked 28th against small forwards. The best part is that Vegas is expecting this to be a close game, which means Anthony should see a full allotment of minutes.

FD — $8,700 — SF
DK — $8,300 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.1 | Last Five Games: 25.7
Min/Game — Season: 34.2 | Last Five Games: 35.3
FP/Game — Season: 36.5 | Last Five Games: 39.1

Secondary Plays

Kristaps Porzingis

Porzingis has been a tough player to predict recently. His minutes are volatile and he seems to have hit that “rookie wall.” He has only averaged 22.6 fantasy points per game in his last five. He makes a nice tournament play tonight though, as the Sixers are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA. The Sixers also allow more blocks than any team in the league.

FD — $6,400 — PF
DK — $7,400 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.5 | Last Five Games: 19.2
Min/Game — Season: 27.4 | Last Five Games: 26.2
FP/Game — Season: 28.4 | Last Five Games: 22.6

Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 1-26 — Home: 1-10 — Last 10: 1-9

The Sixers are now 1-26 on the season. The good news is that they are only 6.5-point underdogs tonight at home. This isn’t a great spot for potential fantasy production though, as the Sixers face a slow-paced Knicks’ team.

The Knicks have struggled a bit defensively, but they are still ranked 17th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Nerlens Noel was originally listed as doubtful for this game, but it sounds like he will be able to play tonight against the Knicks. It’s best to avoid the backcourt situation of the Sixers right now, as there are too many players splitting minutes.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Jahlil Okafor

Okafor is the only Sixers’ player that is on my radar tonight. With Nerlens Noel back, his minutes aren’t as secure. Okafor has been playing well recently though, averaging 34.2 fantasy points per game in his last five outings. He is a secondary option tonight against the Knicks.

FD — $6,600 — C
DK — $6,700 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.3 | Last Five Games: 24.4
Min/Game — Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 32.2
FP/Game — Season: 30.1 | Last Five Games: 34.2

Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM

Brooklyn Nets Indiana Pacers
brooklynnba Vegas Total 204.5 indiananba Vegas Total 204.5
Vegas Sprd 10.5 Vegas Sprd -10.5
Team Proj. 97.0 Team Proj. 107.5
Team Pace 98.20 Team Pace 99.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jarrett Jack Bojan Bogdanovic Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Lavoy Allen Ian Mahinmi
Opp. Season 3 28 4 15 18 Opp. Season 27 25 22 7 23
Opp. Last 7 4 25 1 19 22 Opp. Last 7 23 20 4 17 30

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 7-18 — Road: 1-11 — Last 10: 4-6

The Nets have lost six of their last ten games and they are only 1-11 on the road this season. They are listed as 10.5-point underdogs tonight against the Pacers. While this game has a high total, the Nets are only projected to score 97 points.

Even though they play with a quick tempo, the Pacers are still ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. In a potential blowout, this is a bad spot for the Nets on the road. Shane Larkin and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson are both out tonight, which gives a small boost to Jarrett Jack and Bojan Bogdanovic.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Indiana Pacers

Record: 15-9 — Home: 9-3 — Last 10: 6-4

The Pacers have won six of their last ten games and have an impressive 9-3 record at home. They draw an easy matchup tonight against the Nets, who have been awful away from home. The Pacers have an implied team total of 107.5 points tonight. Not only is that the fourth highest team total, but it is also 3.7 points higher than their average points scored per game.

The Nets have not fared well defensively this season. They are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. If the Nets are able to keep tonight’s game close, this could be a great spot for the Pacers as a whole. This game does have the potential to turn into a rout though, which is concerning on a night with such a large slate of games.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul George

Goerge’s production has been down a bit recently. It’s hard to expect him to shoot 46% from the three-point line all season and we are starting to see some regression there. His price has come down across the industry though and he draws a favorable matchup against the Nets. He is a borderline elite play, but he is by no means a must-start with so many games on the schedule.

FD — $9,600 — SF
DK — $9,400 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.6 | Last Five Games: 26.4
Min/Game — Season: 35.6 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 42.1 | Last Five Games: 34.1

Monta Ellis

Ellis has been playing his best basketball of the season recently. Over his last five games, he has averaged 28.2 fantasy points in 32.4 minutes per game. He has also seen a nice boost in usage during that stretch. Ellis is questionable tonight, but if he is able to suit up, he would make an intriguing tournament play tonight on DraftKings.

FD — $6,000 — SG
DK — $5,500 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.6 | Last Five Games: 19.9
Min/Game — Season: 32.3 | Last Five Games: 32.4
FP/Game — Season: 25.1 | Last Five Games: 28.2

Portland Trail Blazers at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM

Portland Trail Blazers Orlando Magic
portlandnba Vegas Total 199.0 orlandonba Vegas Total 199.0
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 97.0 Team Proj. 102.0
Team Pace 97.50 Team Pace 98.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Noah Vonleh Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Channing Frye Nikola Vucevic
Opp. Season 21 6 15 10 15 Opp. Season 7 16 7 20 29
Opp. Last 7 11 23 18 13 1 Opp. Last 7 9 6 23 15 23

Portland Trail Blazers

Record: 11-16 — Road: 5-10 — Last 10: 4-6

The Blazers have lost six of their last ten games and have a spotty 5-10 record on the road. Tonight they head to Orlando to take on the red-hot Magic. Vegas is expecting this game to stay relatively close though, as the Blazers are only listed as 5-point underdogs. The biggest issue here is that their team total is 4.6 points lower than their average points scored per game this season.

The Magic are underrated defensively. Many may not have noticed, but they are ranked eighth in points allowed per game and seventh in defensive efficiency. With such a low team total, this could be a decent spot to fade the Blazers altogether. The backcourt duo of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are in play, but it’s hard to trust any of the Blazers’ bigs right now with that rotation.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Damian Lillard

A lot of people are going to be on the Blazers’ backcourt tonight, but I see Lillard and McCollum as secondary plays. Lillard tweaked his ankle the other night, which is a concern. He seems a bit overpriced for his matchup. There are plenty of great mid-range options at point guard tonight – Isaiah Thomas, Brandon Knight, Ricky Rubio, Reggie Jackson, and Elfrid Payton just to name a few.

FD — $9,000 — PG
DK — $9,000 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.5 | Last Five Games: 29.6
Min/Game — Season: 36.5 | Last Five Games: 35.7
FP/Game — Season: 39.1 | Last Five Games: 37.9

C.J. McCollum

McCollum comes into tonight’s game in good form. Over his last five games, he has averaged 32.8 fantasy points in 34.8 minutes per contest. He is a bit too expensive on FanDuel, but he is worth a look as a secondary play tonight on DraftKings.

FD — $7,300 — SG
DK — $6,800 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.9 | Last Five Games: 22.1
Min/Game — Season: 35.0 | Last Five Games: 34.8
FP/Game — Season: 30.7 | Last Five Games: 32.8

Orlando Magic

Record: 14-11 — Home: 8-4 — Last 10: 7-3

The Magic have won seven of their last ten games and a lot of those wins have been in dominating fashion. They are listed as 5-point favorites tonight at home against the Blazers. The Magic have an implied team total of 102 points tonight, which is the eighth highest on the board.

The Blazers haven’t been great defensively this season. They are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Magic are in a good spot as a whole. One note before I get into my picks – don’t put too much stock into the starter’s recent minutes. The Magic have been involved in three straight blowouts, which has lowered their minute totals.

Elite Plays

Nikola Vucevic

I can never fully trust Scott Skiles, but Vucevic’s minutes have been trending in the right direction (again, ignore the blowouts in the last three games). Over his last five games, he has averaged 32.8 fantasy points per game in less than 30 minutes. If tonight’s game stays close, he should see closer to 35 minutes.

FD — $7,300 — C
DK — $6,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.9 | Last Five Games: 21.0
Min/Game — Season: 29.6 | Last Five Games: 29.7
FP/Game — Season: 31.4 | Last Five Games: 32.8

Elfrid Payton

Everyone is going to see Payton’s recent minutes distribution and immediately think to avoid him tonight. However, he is one of my favorite plays on the slate tonight (especially on DraftKings). Prior to the blowouts, he had played at least 33 minutes in each of his previous six games. He is a stat-stuffing point guard that is underpriced tonight.

FD — $6,700 — PG
DK — $6,300 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.0 | Last Five Games: 20.6
Min/Game — Season: 31.6 | Last Five Games: 29.2
FP/Game — Season: 27.3 | Last Five Games: 29.4

Secondary Plays

NONE

Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM

Toronto Raptors Miami Heat
torontonba Vegas Total 187.5 miaminba Vegas Total 187.5
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 91.3 Team Proj. 96.3
Team Pace 96.10 Team Pace 95.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Terrence Ross Luis Scola Bismack Biyombo Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside
Opp. Season 4 3 24 3 10 Opp. Season 2 21 8 11 16
Opp. Last 7 15 13 14 10 15 Opp. Last 7 1 9 20 5 21

Toronto Raptors

Record: 16-11 — Road: 8-7 — Last 10: 5-5

This game has the least amount of fantasy appeal of any on the slate tonight. We have two great defenses squaring off against one another. The Raptors are playing in the second half of a back-to-back and they are facing a tough Heat team on the road. The Raptors have the lowest implied team total of any team on the schedule tonight.

The Heat have been dominant defensively this season. They are ranked second or third in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. I will be fading the Raptors completely tonight, as they have a poor matchup and are playing their second game in as many nights.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Miami Heat

Record: 15-9 — Home: 11-4 — Last 10: 6-4

The Heat have won six of their last ten games and they sport an impressive 11-4 record at home. Tonight they host the visiting Raptors in a game that features the lowest total on the board tonight. The Heat are projected to score 96.3 points though, which is slightly higher than their average points scored per game this season.

The Raptors also have a stout defense, ranking 12th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Of the two teams, the Heat have the more favorable matchup. However, with 12 games on the slate tonight, we don’t need to force any Heat players into our lineups.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM

Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics
atlantanba Vegas Total 204.5 bostonnba Vegas Total 204.5
Vegas Sprd 4.0 Vegas Sprd -4.0
Team Proj. 100.3 Team Proj. 104.3
Team Pace 98.30 Team Pace 101.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger
Opp. Season 1 19 23 22 17 Opp. Season 17 15 20 12 20
Opp. Last 7 8 10 13 20 25 Opp. Last 7 18 1 30 9 10

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 15-12 — Road: 6-6 — Last 10: 5-5

The Hawks are only 5-5 in their last ten games, but are expected to keep tonight’s game against the Celtics close. Both of these teams play at a fast pace and we have a fairly high total at 204.5 points. The Hawks are projected to score 100.3 points, which is slightly below their average points scored per game this season.

Elite Plays

Paul Millsap

Millsap is always one of my favorite targets at power forward, because he has a high floor and a high ceiling. He doesn’t rely on one area of the stat sheet, which allows him to be productive even when his shot isn’t falling. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Celtics, who are ranked 22nd against power forwards.

FD — $8,300 — PF
DK — $8,000 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.8 | Last Five Games: 17.7
Min/Game — Season: 33.4 | Last Five Games: 32.0
FP/Game — Season: 37.8 | Last Five Games: 34.1

Secondary Plays

Al Horford

FD — $6,800 — C
DK — $6,500 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.8 | Last Five Games: 16.9
Min/Game — Season: 31.4 | Last Five Games: 31.8
FP/Game — Season: 31.3 | Last Five Games: 27.8

Kent Bazemore

Bazemore’s price is slowly creeping up across the industry, but he remains a nice play tonight against the Celtics. He has scored at least 25 fantasy points in five of his last six games. He does draw a difficult matchup against Jae Crowder though, who is an excellent perimeter defender.

FD — $5,500 — SG
DK — $5,700 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.2 | Last Five Games: 18.6
Min/Game — Season: 27.6 | Last Five Games: 27.8
FP/Game — Season: 24.0 | Last Five Games: 27.8

Boston Celtics

Record: 14-12 — Home: 7-6 — Last 10: 5-5

The Celtics have been a tough team to get a read on this season. They have had some terrific wins and some really bad losses. They are still 14-12 on the season though, with a 7-6 record at home. The Celtics have an implied team total of 104.3 points tonight, which is the seventh highest on the board.

The Hawks have not been great defensively this season. They are ranked dead last in rebounding differential and are right around the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Marcus Smart is still out, which means Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley will continue to see minutes in the mid-30’s.

Elite Plays

Isaiah Thomas

Thomas has played well in his last five games, averaging 35.8 fantasy points in 36.2 minutes per game. The key stat there is his minutes. Earlier in the season, he rarely topped more than 32 minutes, but now he is seeing games in the upper 30’s. He will likely get overlooked tonight with all of the options at point guard, but he is in a nice spot at home against the Hawks.

FD — $8,100 — PG
DK — $7,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.8 | Last Five Games: 24.6
Min/Game — Season: 32.1 | Last Five Games: 36.2
FP/Game — Season: 34.5 | Last Five Games: 35.8

Secondary Plays

Jae Crowder

Crowder is a viable mid-range small forward tonight. He has averaged 24.1 fantasy points per game this season and he draws a decent matchup against Kent Bazemore and the Hawks. I will probably be looking elsewhere at small forward, but Crowder is a safe play in cash games.

FD — $5,400 — SF
DK — $5,500 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.6 | Last Five Games: 15.4
Min/Game — Season: 31.2 | Last Five Games: 34.2
FP/Game — Season: 24.1 | Last Five Games: 24.5

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious