NBA Grind Down: Friday, December 23rd
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Chicago Bulls at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET
Chicago Bulls | Charlotte Hornets | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 203.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 203.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 4.0 | Vegas Spread | -4.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 99.5 | Team Total | 103.5 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | 0.2 | Pace +/- | -1.5 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Rajon Rondo | Dwyane Wade | Jimmy Butler | Taj Gibson | Robin Lopez | Proj. Starter | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Cody Zeller | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 17 | 12 | 20 | 14 | 25 | DvP | 6 | 14 | 15 | 20 | 18 | |
DRPM | -0.75 | 0.37 | 2.05 | 0.32 | 1.98 | DRPM | -0.53 | 0.37 | 1.31 | 1.63 | 0.50 |
Chicago Bulls
- Injury Watch:
Michael Carter-Williams (Out)
Dwyane Wade (Probable)
- Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 101.4 (23 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 99.5 (26 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: -1.9 (21 of 28)
Pace of Play: 97.2 (23 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 0.2 (13 of 28)
- Charlotte Hornets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.6 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.5 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.7 (14 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 205.1 (20 of 30)
Merry Christmas Eve Eve! Before we get into the picks, I wanted to wish everyone Happy Holidays. If you are traveling, be safe out there. Even though we have DFS all weekend, make sure to spend some time with the ones you love, whether it be family or friends. Always remember that what happens in a football or basketball game isn’t nearly as important as your loved ones. I’m not saying that you can’t play DFS or check your scores (I will certainly be doing both), but try to limit the time on your phone.
There is a massive 14 game slate on tap in the NBA tonight. In an effort to save time, we will keep the breakdown for each team short and sweet. The Bulls draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Hornets in what is expected to be a fairly low scoring games. Chicago is listed as a 4-point underdog with an implied total of only 99.5 points, which is the third lowest in the entire slate. Jimmy Butler price is down across the industry and while Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is an excellent defender, the Hornets are ranked 20th against small forwards this season. Butler has such a high usage rate that he is typically a strong play regardless of the matchup. Robin Lopez is a decent punt play at center. The Hornets have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to the position this season and Lopez is priced at $4,800 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rajon Rondo | $5,900 | $6,000 | 0.88 | 31.0 | -1.6 | 27.3 | -0.5 | 21.8% | 2.9% | 17 | -0.75 |
Dwyane Wade | $7,000 | $6,600 | 1.03 | 31.0 | -4.7 | 31.9 | -6.1 | 29.9% | -0.6% | 12 | 0.37 |
Jimmy Butler | $8,400 | $8,400 | 1.13 | 36.2 | -3.2 | 40.9 | -8.2 | 29.0% | -2.9% | 20 | 2.05 |
Taj Gibson | $5,300 | $5,300 | 0.89 | 28.0 | -3.9 | 25.0 | 0.6 | 19.3% | 1.2% | 14 | 0.32 |
Robin Lopez | $4,800 | $4,800 | 0.79 | 28.5 | 0.5 | 22.5 | -5.3 | 16.2% | -0.7% | 25 | 1.98 |
Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler
Secondary Plays – Robin Lopez
Charlotte Hornets
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
- Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 104.3 (16 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 103.5 (16 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: -0.8 (18 of 28)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (15 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -1.5 (21 of 28)
- Chicago Bulls Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.8 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.7 (2 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.8 (12 of 30)
This is one of those games that lacks fantasy appeal as a whole. The Hornets draw a tough matchup against a Bulls’ defense that is ranked fifth in points allowed per game and eighth in defensive efficiency this season. Granted, the game is being played in Charlotte which helps, but this isn’t an ideal spot for the Hornets. They come into the game with an implied total of 13.5 points, which ranks 16th among the 28 teams in action tonight. Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum are both better at home and may be worth a look in tournaments. Neither player stands out as a top five play at their respective position though. Marvin Williams provides decent value at power forward. In his last three games, he is averaging 30.1 minutes and 25.5 fantasy points per contest. Taj Gibson is a good low post defender, but may struggle to defend Williams on the perimeter.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kemba Walker | $8,000 | $7,700 | 1.10 | 33.5 | 4.1 | 36.7 | 7.7 | 30.6% | 0.1% | 6 | -0.53 |
Nicolas Batum | $7,200 | $7,100 | 0.92 | 34.6 | 0.5 | 31.7 | 4.8 | 22.3% | 4.9% | 14 | 0.37 |
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $4,200 | $4,100 | 0.74 | 28.5 | -4.6 | 21.2 | -7.6 | 14.8% | 0.3% | 15 | 1.31 |
Marvin Williams | $4,300 | $4,700 | 0.72 | 27.6 | 2.5 | 19.8 | 5.7 | 17.1% | -0.7% | 20 | 1.63 |
Cody Zeller | $4,900 | $4,900 | 0.87 | 25.8 | 3.6 | 22.5 | 3.6 | 16.8% | 0.3% | 18 | 0.50 |
Frank Kaminsky | $4,100 | $3,900 | 0.81 | 25.0 | -6.3 | 20.4 | -3.4 | 21.1% | -1.4% | 20 | N/A |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum, Marvin Williams
Los Angeles Lakers at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 213.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 213.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 5.5 | Vegas Spread | -5.5 | |||||||||
Team Total | 103.8 | Team Total | 109.3 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | -1.3 | Pace +/- | 2.4 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | D’Angelo Russell | Nick Young | Brandon Ingram | Luol Deng | Timofey Mozgov | Proj. Starter | D.J. Augustin | Evan Fournier | Aaron Gordon | Serge Ibaka | Bismack Biyombo | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 20 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 26 | DvP | 24 | 26 | 29 | 28 | 28 | |
DRPM | -1.94 | -1.57 | -1.04 | 0.54 | 1.02 | DRPM | -0.71 | -1.49 | -2.31 | 0.39 | -0.41 |
Los Angeles Lakers
- Injury Watch:
Jose Calderon (Out)
Larry Nance (Out)
Julius Randle (Doubtful)
Tarik Black (Doubtful)
- Los Angeles Lakers Offense
Points Per Game: 104.8 (13 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 103.8 (14 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: -1.1 (19 of 28)
Pace of Play: 101.1 (4 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -1.3 (20 of 28)
- Orlando Magic Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.9 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.8 (25 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 203.8 (15 of 30)
The Lakers are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, after losing to the Heat in Miami last night. They have a quick turnaround tonight, as they head to Orlando to take on the Magic. This is a favorable matchup for fantasy production and the game has sneaky shootout potential. The over/under is set at 213 points and despite missing a number of players in their frontcourt, the Lakers are only 5.5-point underdogs. Julius Randle, Tarik Black, and Larry Nance are all expected to miss tonight’s game, which opens up a lot of minutes in their frontcourt. Here is a quick minute breakdown from last night’s game:
PLAYER MIN
L. Deng SF 34
B. Ingram SF 35
T. Mozgov C 30
D. Russell PG 32
N. Young SG 36
T. Robinson PF 18
J. Clarkson PG 25
L. Williams SG 28
As you can see from above, Luol Deng, Brandon Ingram, Timofey Mozgov, and Nick Young all played at least 30 minutes. Deng has been on fire over the last two weeks and is close to a must play in cash games tonight given the matchup and his expected role. Ingram has a low usage rate and a low FP/min, which makes him more of a safe cash game punt than a high upside tournament play. If Mozgov sees 30 minutes again tonight, he should easily reach and exceed value at his price point. I’m still not sure what to do about the Lakers’ backcourt. There are a lot of players splitting minutes, but D’Angelo Russell, Lou Williams, and Nick Young are all worth a look in tournaments. The only play of note here is Thomas Robinson, who racked up 26.4 fantasy points in only 18 minutes of action last night. He is an elite value play at power forward and the hope is that he earned himself a few extra minutes tonight.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D’Angelo Russell | $5,900 | $5,600 | 1.01 | 25.9 | 2.9 | 26.3 | 3.1 | 31.0% | 0.9% | 20 | -1.94 |
Nick Young | $4,600 | $4,700 | 0.78 | 25.9 | 7.8 | 20.1 | 10.4 | 19.8% | 1.9% | 11 | -1.57 |
Brandon Ingram | $3,800 | $4,100 | 0.58 | 27.3 | 7.3 | 15.8 | 4.3 | 16.2% | -3.8% | 13 | -1.04 |
Luol Deng | $4,600 | $4,900 | 0.72 | 26.5 | 7.3 | 19.0 | 8.4 | 15.2% | -0.3% | 9 | 0.54 |
Timofey Mozgov | $3,500 | $3,200 | 0.74 | 21.2 | -2.5 | 15.7 | -3.0 | 16.9% | -0.9% | 26 | 1.02 |
Lou Williams | $5,800 | $5,900 | 1.11 | 25.3 | 2.2 | 28.0 | 1.3 | 30.6% | -1.3% | 11 | N/A |
Elite Plays – Luol Deng, Thomas Robinson, Timofey Mozgov
Secondary Plays – Nick Young, Brandon Ingram, Lou Williams
Orlando Magic
- Injury Watch:
Jodie Meeks (Questionable)
- Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 98.0 (27 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 109.3 (3 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: 11.3 (1 of 28)
Pace of Play: 97.4 (22 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 2.4 (4 of 28)
- Los Angeles Lakers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.9 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.1 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (20 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 218.7 (29 of 30)
The Magic draw one of the top matchups on the board, as they get to face a Lakers’ defense that is ranked 27th in points allowed per game and 29th in defensive efficiency. Orlando will also see a pace boost, as the Lakers average nearly four more possessions per game than the Magic do. Orlando comes into the game with the highest projected point differential in the slate at +11.3, which means they are projected to score 11.3 more points than their season average of 98. We can give a sizable boost to the Magic offense as a whole and this game has a ton of appeal if you want to stack it in cash games or tournaments. Elfrid Payton is a great tournament play that could be under 5% owned tonight. He is seeing close to 30 minutes off the bench and the Lakers are ranked 24th against point guards this season. Evan Fournier is an elite play either way, but we can give him a small boost if Jodie Meeks is unable to suit up again tonight. Fournier is averaging over 30 fantasy points in his last three games. Aaron Gordon and Serge Ibaka have appealing matchups, but neither player stands out as an elite play at his respective position. Bismack Biyombo and Nikola Vucevic should be able to dominate the paint against a short-handed Lakers’ frontcourt. Biyombo is the better cash game play, while Vucevic is the better tournament option.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D.J. Augustin | $3,700 | $3,400 | 0.73 | 20.6 | -0.7 | 15.1 | -3.3 | 22.1% | -3.3% | 24 | -0.71 |
Evan Fournier | $6,400 | $6,300 | 0.80 | 33.4 | 1.7 | 26.9 | 3.8 | 24.2% | 1.7% | 26 | -1.49 |
Aaron Gordon | $4,500 | $4,900 | 0.75 | 25.9 | -3.6 | 19.3 | -8.0 | 19.9% | -0.7% | 29 | -2.31 |
Serge Ibaka | $6,500 | $6,100 | 0.92 | 30.6 | 0.7 | 28.0 | 1.1 | 20.0% | 0.6% | 28 | 0.39 |
Bismack Biyombo | $5,000 | $4,500 | 0.76 | 26.5 | 1.7 | 20.2 | 5.0 | 12.7% | 0.1% | 28 | -0.41 |
Nikola Vucevic | $7,200 | $6,700 | 1.13 | 27.9 | 3.0 | 31.6 | -0.9 | 24.9% | 1.4% | 28 | N/A |
Elfrid Payton | $6,200 | $5,900 | 0.89 | 28.8 | 1.9 | 25.8 | 0.4 | 24.5% | 1.9% | 24 | N/A |
Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton (GPP), Evan Fournier, Nikola Vucevic, (GPP), Bismack Biyombo (DK)
Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (Cash), Serge Ibaka, Nikola Vucevic (Cash), Bismack Biyombo (FD)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 209.5 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 209.5 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 4.0 | Vegas Spread | -4.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 102.8 | Team Total | 106.8 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | -0.4 | Pace +/- | 2.0 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Russell Westbrook | Anthony Morrow | Andre Roberson | Domantas Sabonis | Steven Adams | Proj. Starter | Isaiah Thomas | Avery Bradley | Jae Crowder | Amir Johnson | Al Horford | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 11 | 7 | 23 | 18 | 24 | DvP | 24 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 5 | |
DRPM | -2.98 | -2.29 | 1.51 | 1.09 | 1.90 | DRPM | -0.69 | -1.48 | 2.04 | 1.58 | 1.65 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Injury Watch:
Victor Oladipo (Out)
- Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 106.5 (8 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.8 (17 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: -3.8 (22 of 28)
Pace of Play: 100.7 (5 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -0.4 (16 of 28)
- Boston Celtics Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.5 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.3 (29 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 202.3 (18 of 30)
The Thunder are primed to make a push for the playoffs thanks to some outstanding play from Russell NESWestbrook. Tonight they head to Boston to take on a talented Celtics’ team in what should be a close game throughout. The Thunder are listed as 4-point underdogs with an implied total of 102.8 points. Even though their total is 3.8 points below their season average, I’m not letting that take me off of Westbrook in a matchup against Isaiah Thomas and company. I do expect Westbrook to see a lot of Avery Bradley, but both he and Thomas have negative DRPM’s this season. Westbrook is the top overall play in the slate and there is enough value to easily fit him into your cash game and tournament lineups. Outside of Westbrook, there isn’t a ton to love given the fact that there are 13 other games to choose players from. Steven Adams grades out as a decent play, but I’d rather take either of the starting centers in the Lakers/Magic game.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Russell Westbrook | $12,800 | $12,700 | 1.64 | 35.1 | -0.8 | 57.7 | 9.9 | 45.8% | 2.5% | 11 | -2.98 |
Anthony Morrow | $3,500 | $3,200 | 0.55 | 16.9 | 2.6 | 9.4 | 0.9 | 15.4% | -5.1% | 7 | -2.29 |
Andre Roberson | $3,900 | $4,200 | 0.58 | 31.6 | 2.9 | 18.2 | 2.3 | 10.8% | 2.4% | 23 | 1.51 |
Domantas Sabonis | $3,500 | $3,000 | 0.63 | 20.8 | -4.5 | 13.2 | -3.7 | 14.6% | 1.4% | 18 | 1.09 |
Steven Adams | $5,200 | $5,000 | 0.81 | 29.7 | -2.0 | 24.2 | 1.8 | 16.1% | 3.3% | 24 | 1.90 |
Enes Kanter | $5,100 | $4,500 | 1.14 | 19.4 | 1.7 | 22.2 | 2.4 | 24.7% | -3.5% | 18 | N/A |
Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook
Secondary Plays – NONE
Boston Celtics
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
- Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 104.6 (14 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 106.8 (8 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: 2.2 (10 of 28)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (18 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 2.0 (5 of 28)
- Oklahoma City Thunder Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.0 (3 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.0 (13 of 30)
The Celtics are finally healthy and it is starting to show in the win column. They are looking for their fifth win in a row tonight, as they host the visiting Thunder. This is a mediocre matchup for fantasy production, but the game is expected to be played at a fast pace. The Celtics have an implied total of 106.8 points, which is the eighth highest in the slate and 2.2 points above their season average. Boston is playing in the second half of a back-to-back, but I’m not overly concerned about any of the starters having their minutes monitored. The best way to attack the Thunder is at point guard, as they are ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed to the position. Isaiah Thomas is averaging 39.2 fantasy points this season with a true usage rate of 34.8%. He is always a player that gets overlooked and he is one of my favorite tournament plays in the slate. The Thunder are very good against centers, which takes Al Horford out of play. Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder are fine options if you are down to your final pick and need someone at their price points. Like a lot of players tonight, they just don’t stand out as elite plays in a point-per-dollar sense.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Isaiah Thomas | $8,200 | $7,900 | 1.18 | 33.3 | -0.5 | 39.2 | 5.8 | 34.8% | -1.2% | 24 | -0.69 |
Avery Bradley | $6,800 | $6,100 | 0.89 | 35.2 | -1.0 | 31.2 | -4.6 | 22.1% | -2.2% | 2 | -1.48 |
Jae Crowder | $5,700 | $5,200 | 0.79 | 31.2 | 5.2 | 24.6 | 1.1 | 17.2% | -1.6% | 11 | 2.04 |
Amir Johnson | $3,500 | $3,100 | 0.77 | 19.7 | 2.7 | 15.2 | 0.8 | 14.4% | -0.9% | 17 | 1.58 |
Al Horford | $7,900 | $6,800 | 1.07 | 33.0 | 1.7 | 35.5 | -0.5 | 23.0% | 0.4% | 5 | 1.65 |
Marcus Smart | $4,700 | $4,000 | 0.73 | 30.0 | -5.0 | 21.8 | -3.3 | 19.8% | -0.6% | 24 | N/A |
Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas
Secondary Plays – Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder
Golden State Warriors at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM ET
Golden State Warriors | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 211.5 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 211.5 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | -7.0 | Vegas Spread | 7.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 109.3 | Team Total | 102.3 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | -3.3 | Pace +/- | 4.0 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | Zaza Pachulia | Proj. Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Marcus Morris | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 23 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 9 | DvP | 8 | 16 | 8 | 20 | 6 | |
DRPM | -0.87 | 0.62 | 0.36 | -0.75 | 2.17 | DRPM | -0.78 | -2.75 | 2.08 | 4.38 | 2.82 |
Golden State Warriors
- Injury Watch:
Draymond Green (Probable)
- Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 117.4 (1 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 109.3 (3 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: -8.2 (25 of 28)
Pace of Play: 102.7 (3 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -3.3 (25 of 28)
- Detroit Pistons Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.5 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.7 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.1 (10 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 192.6 (8 of 30)
The Warriors found themselves down 18 points at halftime against the Nets. They didn’t seem overly concerned though, and came out and smashed Brooklyn in the second half. Draymond Green missed last night’s game to be there for the birth of his child, but is expected to play tonight. With Green back in the mix, the other three superstars will go back to their usual roles and Kevin Looney will head back to the bench. Tonight’s matchup against the Pistons is not a favorable one, as Detroit is ranked 27th in pace of play and third in points allowed per game this season. The Warriors still have the third highest implied total in the slate, but it is 8.2 points below their season average. Stephen Curry is the one play that stands out here. The Pistons are ranked 23rd against point guards and Reggie Jackson has a DRPM of -0.87 on the season. Curry’s price is near its lowest point of the season. He is only $8,000 on DraftKings. Klay Thompson can get hot at any time, but he’s an easy fade against Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Kevin Durant is a lot like Curry in that he is way too cheap on DraftKings. Draymond Green has some #babyswag if you want to play that narrative in tournaments.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Stephen Curry | $8,700 | $8,000 | 1.20 | 33.0 | -2.9 | 39.7 | -4.5 | 29.7% | -1.8% | 23 | -0.87 |
Klay Thompson | $6,300 | $6,200 | 0.87 | 33.6 | -3.0 | 29.3 | -1.2 | 24.6% | -0.2% | 5 | 0.62 |
Kevin Durant | $9,700 | $8,800 | 1.36 | 34.0 | -4.3 | 46.3 | -0.1 | 27.9% | 4.0% | 3 | 0.36 |
Draymond Green | $7,900 | $7,600 | 1.13 | 32.8 | -2.9 | 37.2 | 2.9 | 19.3% | 0.4% | 5 | -0.75 |
Zaza Pachulia | $3,500 | $3,000 | 0.93 | 17.7 | 1.7 | 16.4 | 3.9 | 14.2% | -0.1% | 9 | 2.17 |
Andre Iguodala | $3,800 | $3,400 | 0.68 | 24.7 | -1.4 | 16.9 | -0.2 | 12.6% | -0.4% | 3 | N/A |
Elite Plays – Stephen Curry (DK), Kevin Durant (DK)
Secondary Plays – Stephen Curry (FD), Kevin Durant (FD), Draymond Green (GPP)
Detroit Pistons
- Injury Watch:
Reggie Jackson (Probable)
- Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 98.0 (27 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.3 (20 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: 4.3 (6 of 28)
Pace of Play: 95.4 (27 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 4.0 (3 of 28)
- Golden State Warriors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.4 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.3 (7 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 198.3 (6 of 30)
The Pistons have some good wins and some bad losses on their resume this season. They would love to end their four game losing streak with a win over the Warriors tonight. While Golden State is ranked second in defensive efficiency this season, their pace of play allows their opponents to average 103.8 points per game. The Pistons have an implied total of 102.3 points tonight, which is 4.3 points above their season average. Reggie Jackson was hurt his knee the other night, but was able to return to the game. As long as he is able to suit up, he makes for a great GPP play tonight. He has a true usage rate of 30.6% on the season and Stephen Curry is a below-average defender. This feels like a Kentavious Caldwell-Pope kind of day, but I really don’t want to target him in a 14 game slate. Jon Leuer was expected to start over Marcus Morris the other night, but he got into a car accident and missed shootaround. As long as he drives safe today, he could end up drawing the start at power forward. If that’s the case, we can start playing him in DFS immediately. Andre Drummond is significantly better at home than he is on the road, but he is way too inconsistent to trust in cash games.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reggie Jackson | $5,800 | $5,400 | 0.88 | 25.7 | 0.5 | 22.7 | 3.8 | 30.5% | -0.6% | 8 | -0.78 |
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $5,500 | $5,100 | 0.73 | 33.0 | -2.4 | 24.1 | -5.7 | 20.6% | -1.5% | 16 | -2.75 |
Marcus Morris | $4,600 | $4,600 | 0.68 | 32.2 | 0.2 | 21.8 | -10.1 | 19.8% | -1.6% | 8 | 2.08 |
Tobias Harris | $5,500 | $5,100 | 0.77 | 32.6 | -4.4 | 25.1 | -5.8 | 21.4% | -2.2% | 20 | 4.38 |
Andre Drummond | $7,800 | $6,900 | 1.17 | 30.0 | 2.2 | 35.0 | -7.7 | 21.8% | -4.5% | 6 | 2.82 |
Jon Leuer | $4,900 | $5,000 | 0.82 | 26.7 | -1.5 | 21.9 | 3.2 | 17.6% | 6.0% | 20 | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jon Leuer (if he starts)
Secondary Plays – Reggie Jackson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Tobias Harris, Andre Drummond
Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:30 PM ET
Brooklyn Nets | Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 221.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 221.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 16.0 | Vegas Spread | -16.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 102.5 | Team Total | 118.5 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | -0.4 | Pace +/- | 5.7 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Jeremy Lin | Sean Kilpatrick | Bojan Bogdanovic | Luis Scola | Brook Lopez | Proj. Starter | Kyrie Irving | DeAndre Liggins | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Tristan Thompson | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 18 | 26 | 8 | 3 | 12 | DvP | 29 | 30 | 29 | 29 | 30 | |
DRPM | -2.41 | 0.36 | 1.22 | 1.47 | 1.88 | DRPM | -0.10 | -2.10 | -2.72 | 0.07 | 0.11 |
Brooklyn Nets
- Injury Watch:
Isaiah Whitehead (Out)
Trevor Booker (Out)
- Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.4 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.5 (19 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: -3.9 (23 of 28)
Pace of Play: 104.4 (1 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -0.4 (16 of 28)
- Cleveland Cavaliers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.8 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (15 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.1 (9 of 30)
The Nets are in a tough spot tonight. They are playing their second game in as many nights and they have to face the defending champions on the road. Brooklyn comes into the game as 16-point underdogs against a Cavaliers’ defense that is ranked 11th in points allowed per game. This could easily be over by halftime and I always struggle targeting players from the team that is expected to be blown out. Jeremy Lin will likely get some buzz around the industry, after scoring 39 fantasy points in 32 minutes last night. While I’m a fan of Lin overall, he will be the first player to sit if the game gets out of hand. It’s hard to see Brooklyn playing him more than 26-28 minutes in this one. The same can be said for Brook Lopez, who played 31 minutes last night against the Warriors. The Nets are an easy fade in this slate, even with Trevor Booker resting.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jeremy Lin | $6,400 | $5,800 | 1.15 | 25.3 | 1.0 | 29.0 | -0.1 | 28.6% | -0.5% | 18 | -2.41 |
Sean Kilpatrick | $5,000 | $4,700 | 0.85 | 27.8 | -0.5 | 23.7 | -8.1 | 25.2% | -5.0% | 26 | 0.36 |
Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,400 | $4,400 | 0.74 | 27.4 | -4.1 | 20.4 | -4.5 | 21.0% | -1.4% | 8 | 1.22 |
Luis Scola | $3,500 | $3,100 | 0.90 | 12.8 | -1.7 | 11.5 | -3.7 | 19.0% | 1.5% | 3 | 1.47 |
Brook Lopez | $7,600 | $6,500 | 1.16 | 28.9 | 2.4 | 33.5 | 12.7 | 28.3% | 1.1% | 12 | 1.88 |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – NONE
Cleveland Cavaliers
- Injury Watch:
J.R. Smith (Out)
Kevin Love (Questionable)
- Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 110.6 (4 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 118.5 (1 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: 7.9 (2 of 28)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (18 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 5.7 (1 of 28)
- Brooklyn Nets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 114.5 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.9 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.1 (26 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 227.2 (30 of 30)
The Cavaliers are in a tricky situation tonight against the Nets. While they have the highest implied total in the slate at 118.5 points, there is a very good chance that this game is over by halftime. The spread is set at 16 points, which is easily the largest in this 14 game slate. The way I see it, the Cavaliers would be in play if the slate was smaller. With 13 other games on the schedule, we don’t need to take unnecessary risks, especially in cash games. Obviously, Kyrie Irving and LeBron James are in great matchups and would both see a major boost if Kevin Love sits again, but there is a good chance that they will only play three quarters. James, Irving, and Tristan Thompson are all viable tournament plays, but I will be avoiding all Cavaliers in cash games tonight.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyrie Irving | $7,500 | $7,800 | 1.02 | 34.7 | 4.8 | 35.3 | 13.1 | 30.6% | -0.1% | 29 | -0.10 |
DeAndre Liggins | $3,500 | $3,300 | 0.57 | 14.5 | 3.9 | 8.3 | -0.4 | 11.8% | -3.6% | 30 | -2.10 |
LeBron James | $10,100 | $10,100 | 1.29 | 37.1 | 3.2 | 47.8 | 6.0 | 33.3% | -1.7% | 29 | -2.72 |
Kevin Love | $8,500 | $8,200 | 1.20 | 32.2 | 0.9 | 38.7 | 14.7 | 26.3% | 3.6% | 29 | 2.04 |
Tristan Thompson | $5,000 | $5,200 | 0.80 | 28.9 | -2.4 | 23.3 | 1.0 | 9.9% | 4.0% | 30 | 0.11 |
Iman Shumpert | $3,600 | $4,200 | 0.62 | 23.2 | 7.1 | 14.3 | 3.4 | 14.5% | -1.0% | 30 | N/A |