NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 26th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-01-26 20:39:15

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Happy Friday, everyone! We have officially made it to the weekend. Unfortunately, it was not a happy Thursday. Between my Bradley Beal fade and hitting the lock button on Hassan Whiteside, it was far from a profitable night from yours truly. Rather than crying over spilt milk, I’m ready to get right back on the horse. We have a ten game slate to break down, so let’s get into the games.

Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks							Charlotte Hornets
			Vegas Total		210.0					Vegas Total		210.0
			Vegas Spread		6.5					Vegas Spread		-6.5
			Implied Team Total		101.8					Implied Team Total		108.3
			Pace Projection +/-		1.4					Pace Projection +/-		0.3
Projected Starters	Dennis Schroder	Kent Bazemore	Taurean Prince	Ersan Ilyasova	Miles Plumlee		Projected Starters	Kemba Walker	Nicolas Batum	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Marvin Williams	Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	19	2	28	17	8		DvP	20	15	30	21	27
DRPM Rat.	10	8	8	22	4		DRPM Rat.	30	2	16	21	10

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have lost six of their last ten games and are tied for the worst record in the Eastern Conference. They draw a tough matchup tonight, as they hit the road to take on the Hornets in Charlotte. The Hornets are a fairly inconsistent team, but they do tend to play better at home than they do on the road. They are also a good defensive team, ranking 13th in points allowed per game and fourth in rebounding differential. The Hawks have an implied total of 101.8 points, which is the third lowest of the slate.

We have to attack large slates a little differently than we do with small slates. We can afford to be picky with our selections, even in tournaments. There are ten games on the schedule tonight, which means we can avoid certain games or certain teams. I plan to have very little exposure to the Hawks, who have a deep and inconsistent rotation. Dennis Schroder, Kent Bazemore, and John Collins are three players that I would potentially take a look at if I were making ten tournament lineups tonight. If you only make one or two lineups per night like myself, we can leave the Hawks on the bench.

Notable Injuries

DeAndre’ Bembry (Out)

Atlanta Hawks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.3 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.8 (18 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -1.6 (16 of 20)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.8 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder (GPP), Kent Bazemore (GPP), John Collins (GPP)

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets have won six of their last ten games, but are still five games behind the Bucks for the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Charlotte will need a strong second half of the season if they want to make the playoffs. They draw an underrated matchup tonight against the Hawks, who are ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Hornets have an implied total of 108.3 points, which is three points above their season average.

The Hawks are a team to stream point guards against and have been for the last two seasons. They are ranked 22nd in efficiency against the position and Dennis Schroder has one of the worst defensive real plus-minus (DRPM) grades of any player in basketball. Kemba Walker stands out as an elite play, even though he is priced up across the industry. His minutes and production are both trending in the right direction and it’s hard to find a better matchup for a point guard to exploit.

Nicolas Batum is averaging 29 fantasy points over his last five games, but feels overpriced for a matchup against Kent Bazemore, who has one of the highest DRPM grades of any shooting guard in the NBA. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist stands out as a nice value play on DraftKings ($4,000) even though his playing time has been inconsistent over the last few weeks. Marvin Williams and Frank Kaminsky have been productive at times, but are easy fades in a ten game slate.

This is a tremendous spot for Dwight Howard, who is averaging 51 fantasy points over his last five games. Not only do the Hawks struggle to contain centers, but Howard has the revenge card in his back pocket. The only problem is that Howard is priced up on both FanDuel ($9,900) and DraftKings ($8,800). It’s hard to pay that much for a player as inconsistent as Howard in cash games, but he should certainly be on your radar in tournaments.

Notable Injuries

None

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 105.6 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.3 (9 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 2.7 (7 of 20)

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.5 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.6 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (DK), Dwight Howard (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (FD), Dwight Howard (Cash)

Utah Jazz at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET

Utah Jazz							Toronto Raptors
			Vegas Total		207.0					Vegas Total		207.0
			Vegas Spread		8.0					Vegas Spread		-8.0
			Implied Team Total		99.5					Implied Team Total		107.5
			Pace Projection +/-		1.4					Pace Projection +/-		-2.3
Projected Starters	Ricky Rubio	Donovan Mitchell	Joe Ingles	Derrick Favors	Rudy Gobert		Projected Starters	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	OG Anunoby	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	6	11	11	13	17		DvP	18	1	17	10	6
DRPM Rat.	4	24	4	13	17		DRPM Rat.	10	18	9	10	2

Utah Jazz

My beloved Jazz are looking to turn it around after an injury-plagued season thus far. They have a tough task ahead of them tonight, as they take on the Raptors in Toronto. While the Raptors do play at a fast pace, they are ranked 11th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Jazz come into the game with the lowest implied total on the board at only 99.5 points.

The way I see it, there are only two potential plays from the Jazz tonight. The first is Donovan Mitchell, who should draw the defense of DeMar DeRozan. On the season, the Raptors are ranked 26th in efficiency against shooting guards and Mitchell’s price has come down to a playable level on both FanDuel ($7,100) and DraftKings ($6,700). Rudy Gobert played 37 minutes against the Pistons. While the game did go into overtime, it was promising to see him handle a full workload. While tonight’s matchup isn’t ideal, Gobert’s price is only going to increase from this point forward.

Notable Injuries

Rodney Hood (Out)

Utah Jazz Offense

Points Per Game: 101.5 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.5 (20 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -2.0 (17 of 20)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.8 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.9 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.8 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – Donovan Mitchell (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Donovan Mitchell (Cash), Rudy Gobert

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors have won six of their last ten games and are now tied with the Celtics for the fewest losses of any team in the Eastern Conference. Tonight’s matchup against the Jazz is far from ideal, as Utah is ranked 27th in pace of play and seventh in points allowed per game this season. When all is said and done, I expect the Jazz to have a top five defense if Rudy Gobert stays healthy. The Raptors’ implied total of 107.5 points, which gives them the second worst projected point differential of the slate (-3.7).

While this isn’t the best matchup for the Raptors as a whole, I have interest in Kyle Lowry. He has been more aggressive over the last few games and is capable of playing minutes in the high 30s in competitive games. His price is very palatable on DraftKings ($7,200) and a matchup against Ricky Rubio isn’t scaring anyone. After Lowry, there isn’t a lot to love from Toronto. DeMar DeRozan is affordable on DraftKings ($7,600), but the Jazz are ranked first in fantasy points allowed per game to shooting guards.

Notable Injuries

None

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 111.2 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.5 (11 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -3.7 (19 of 20)

Matchup vs. Utah Jazz

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.4 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.0 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.0 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.1 (27 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry (DK)

Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry (FD), DeMar DeRozan (DK)

Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:30 PM ET

Indiana Pacers							Cleveland Cavaliers
			Vegas Total		222.0					Vegas Total		222.0
			Vegas Spread		5.5					Vegas Spread		-5.5
			Implied Team Total		108.3					Implied Team Total		113.8
			Pace Projection +/-		0.2					Pace Projection +/-		-0.8
Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Domantas Sabonis		Projected Starters	Isaiah Thomas	J.R. Smith	LeBron James	Kevin Love	Tristan Thompson
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	24	23	27	26	21		DvP	11	6	13	18	29
DRPM Rat.	26	26	23	19	29		DRPM Rat.	15	1	29	11	27

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have won seven of their last ten games and have done most of it without their starting center. Myles Turner is getting close to a return, but has already been ruled out of tonight’s game. Even though the Pacers are playing on the road, we have to like their matchup against the Cavaliers, who are ranked 25th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Indiana comes into the game with an implied total of 108.3 points, which is two points higher than their season average.

I have played Darren Collison in each of his first three meetings with the Cavaliers this season and for the most part, I’ve been happy with the results. He has scored 45, 15, and 34 fantasy points in those three outings. He missed the Pacers’ last game, but it wasn’t due to injury. He’ll be back with the team tonight and you can bet that I will be firing him up in tournaments once again. Victor Oladipo should have another solid outing tonight, but his price is almost to the unplayable level. He basically needs 50 fantasy points just to reach 5x his salary, which is a lot to expect even in this matchup.

With Turner out again tonight, we can go right back to the well with the Pacers’ frontcourt. Thaddeus Young is averaging 36 minutes and 31 fantasy points over his last five games. During that same stretch, Domantas Sabonis is averaging 30 minutes and 29 fantasy points. Both are viable plays tonight against the Cavaliers, who don’t defend the paint or rebound the basketball well. If I had to choose between the two, I would side with Young the small discount that he offers.

Notable Injuries

Myles Turner (Out)

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 106.4 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.3 (9 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 1.8 (10 of 20)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.6 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.9 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.6 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (14 of 30)

Elite Plays – Thaddeus Young, Darren Collison (FD GPP), Domantas Sabonis (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Darren Collison (FD Cash), Domantas Sabonis (Cash)

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers are in shambles right now. There is drama surrounding Isaiah Thomas, Kevin Love, and even coach Tyronn Lue. I ultimately expect them to right the ship, but it’s fun watching from the sidelines. As for their matchup tonight, this is an exploitable one. The Pacers are ranked 15th in defensive efficiency and 20th in rebounding differential. The Cavaliers have an implied total of 113.8 points, which is the second highest on the board and four points above their season average.

Isaiah Thomas is currently shooting 39% from the field and 28% from the three-point line. He’s still trying to work off the rust, but those numbers are going to improve drastically moving forward. He’s not the safest cash game target in a ten game slate, but he is certainly on my short list of potential tournament targets. LeBron James has not been immune to his team’s poor play, as evidenced by the 46 fantasy point average over his last five games. This feels like a breakout game for the King and we get him at a significant price discount on both FanDuel ($10,900) and DraftKings ($11,100).

At this point, I wouldn’t play Kevin Love if he were priced in the $6,000 range. Until he can turn it around, he should be avoided in all formats. Dwyane Wade is also an easy fade, especially since he is listed as questionable. The Cavaliers are going to shake up their lineup, starting Tristan Thompson at center. Assuming he plays minutes in the mid to upper 20s, he could end up being one of the top value plays of the slate. He is close to minimum salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Notable Injuries

Dwyane Wade (Questionable)

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 109.5 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.8 (2 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 4.3 (5 of 20)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.9 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (18 of 30)

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Tristan Thompson, Isaiah Thomas (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Isaiah Thomas (Cash)

Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET

Brooklyn Nets							Milwaukee Bucks
			Vegas Total		213.0					Vegas Total		213.0
			Vegas Spread		6.0					Vegas Spread		-6.0
			Implied Team Total		103.5					Implied Team Total		109.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.6					Pace Projection +/-		2.4
Projected Starters	Spencer Dinwiddie	Allen Crabbe	DeMarre Carroll	Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	Tyler Zeller		Projected Starters	Eric Bledsoe	Malcolm Brogdon	Khris Middleton	Giannis Antetokounmpo	John Henson
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	13	8	3	8	26		DvP	29	20	8	24	30
DRPM Rat.	7	22	26	8	3		DRPM Rat.	6	17	2	19	11

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets were one of the most frustrating teams to target in the early part of the season thanks to a deep and inconsistent rotation. Now that everyone is healthy, we are starting to see a similar rotation. Tonight’s matchup against the Bucks isn’t terrible, but they are playing on the road. They come into the game with an implied total of 103.5 points, which is the sixth lowest of the slate and two points below their season average.

D’Angelo Russell has yet to play more than 15 minutes since returning from injury, but he has slowly cut into the minutes and usage of Spencer Dinwiddie and Caris LeVert. For now, all three can be avoided at their respective price points. Allen Crabbe and DeMarre Carroll should both play about 30 minutes tonight, but wing players haven’t had a ton of success against the Bucks this season. The best way to attack Milwaukee is with a talented center and that’s something that the Nets don’t currently have on their roster.

Notable Injuries

None

Brooklyn Nets Offense

Points Per Game: 105.7 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.5 (15 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -2.2 (18 of 20)

Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.1 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.5 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.2 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (24 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Allen Crabbe, DeMarre Carroll

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have played the last couple games without Giannis Antetokounmpo, but he’s expected to return tonight against the Nets. He picked a good matchup for his return, as Brooklyn is ranked fifth in pace of play and 24th in points allowed per game this season. The Bucks come into the game with an implied total of 109.5 points, which is the fifth highest on the board and nearly five points above their season average.

Khris Middleton and Malcolm Brogdon were the biggest beneficiaries of the injury to Antetokounmpo and they are now priced up accordingly. While this is an exploitable matchup, Middleton and Brogdon are both overpriced, which takes them out of consideration. It’s still early, but I haven’t seen anything about possible minute restrictions for Giannis . He is an intriguing tournament play in his game back, but an easy fade in cash games. John Henson is a sneaky tournament play on DraftKings ($4,900). His minutes are trending upward and the Nets are ranked 27th in efficiency against centers this season.

Notable Injuries

Eric Bledsoe (Probable)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable)

Milwaukee Bucks Offense

Points Per Game: 104.8 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (5 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 4.7 (3 of 20)

Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.6 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.3 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.8 (5 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo (GPP), John Henson (DK)

Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers							Memphis Grizzlies
			Vegas Total		211.5					Vegas Total		211.5
			Vegas Spread		-3.0					Vegas Spread		3.0
			Implied Team Total		107.3					Implied Team Total		104.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-3.4					Pace Projection +/-		1.2
Projected Starters	Milos Teodosic	Tyrone Wallace	Wesley Johnson	Blake Griffin	DeAndre Jordan		Projected Starters	Tyreke Evans	Andrew Harrison	Dillon Brooks	Jarell Martin	Marc Gasol
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	8	19	5	14	1		DvP	14	29	24	15	18
DRPM Rat.	10	15	12	17	14		DRPM Rat.	4	7	5	27	11

Los Angeles Clippers

This is a battle between two of the most injured teams in recent memory. The Clippers have been without all of their starters at some point and are currently missing a few role players as well. To make matters worse, they draw a difficult matchup against the Grizzlies on the road. On the season, Memphis is ranked dead last in pace of play and sixth in points allowed per game. With all of that said, the Clippers have an implied total of 107.3 points, which is close to their season average.

Milos Teodosic hasn’t shown much of a ceiling this season. While his price is enticing, there are better plays in tonight’s ten game slate. Tyrone Wallace continues to play heavy minutes with C.J. Williams and Jawun Evans out and he has scored at least 18 fantasy points in every game so far this season. I don’t consider him a core play, but he’s certainly viable if you need a value play at shooting guard. Lou Williams should play 36-38 minutes off the bench, but a pace-down game isn’t exactly where I want to pay a premium for Sweet Lou.

Blake Griffin draws the best matchup of the five starters. Not only are the Grizzlies ranked 22nd in efficiency against power forwards, but they could be without their two best power forwards in JaMychal Green and Jarell Martin. Griffin is my top target from the Clippers, but he doesn’t quite get the elite play tag given how many options there are in this ten game slate. DeAndre Jordan draws a difficult matchup against Marc Gasol and we aren’t getting any type of discount on him tonight.

Notable Injuries

Jawun Evans (Out)
C.J. Williams (Out)
Danilo Gallinari (Out)

Los Angeles Clippers Offense

Points Per Game: 107.7 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.3 (12 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5 (15 of 20)

Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.2 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.2 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.0 (30 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Tyrone Wallace, Blake Griffin

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies have won five of their last ten games, but are a ways out of the playoff picture in the Western Conference. Once again, they will be short-handed tonight, as they take on the Clippers, who are ranked 18th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Even though they are missing a number of players, their implied total (104.3 points) is still five points higher than their season average.

We have to take a wait and see approach with the Grizzlies tonight. We’ll start with the backcourt. Tyreke Evans is questionable, so if he is ruled out, Andrew Harrison and Mario Chalmers would both see a significant boost. Wayne Selden would likely draw another start at shooting guard. If Evans is active and without restriction, he makes an intriguing tournament play that could end up having less than 10% ownership.

The frontcourt rotation is also cloudy at the moment. JaMychal Green has been ruled out, but Jarell Martin is still listed as questionable. If Martin is active and draws the start at power forward, he becomes a nice value play in all formats. If Martin is ruled out, Dillon Brooks and Ivan Rabb would see an increase in playing time. Of the two, Brooks is the preferred target. Marc Gasol doesn’t have the best track record against DeAndre Jordan, but is worth a look if Evans is ruled out.

Notable Injuries

JaMychal Green (Out)
Chandler Parsons (Out)
James Ennis (Out)
Tyreke Evans (Questionable)
Jarell Martin (Questionable)

Memphis Grizzlies Offense

Points Per Game: 99.3 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (14 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 5.0 (2 of 20)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.6 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.7 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.6 (11 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Andrew Harrison & Mario Chalmers (if Evans is out), Marc Gasol, Jarell Martin (if active), Tyreke Evans (GPP – if active)

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