NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 11th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Detroit Pistons at Charlotte Hornets – 07:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -4, 201 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Morris-Harris-Drummond
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Lee-Batum-Williams-Zeller
| Detroit | Charlotte | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 201 | | Vegas Total | 201 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.5 | Team Proj. | 102.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.46 | Team Pace | 97.84 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Marcus Morris | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Courtney Lee | Nicolas Batum | Marvin Williams | Cody Zeller | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 13 | 23 | 22 | 10 | Opp. Season | 10 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 9 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 12 | 13 | Opp. Season | 5 | 21 | 29 | 1 | 12 | |
Detroit
Record: 33-31 — Road: 14-20 — Last 10: 6-4
- Detroit Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.7 (17 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 98.8
Projected Point Differential: -2.9
This is a big game as both the Pistons and Hornets are battling for the playoffs in the East and are only separated by two games. However, for fantasy purposes it’s not as appealing as the total of 202 points is pedestrian, given some of the other matchups. On the bright side, this game is expected to remain close so the starters on both sides should be in line for their normal minutes.
- Charlotte Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.6 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (18 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.08 (18 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
Stanley Johnson (GTD)
Anthony Tolliver (O)
Charlotte is a tough team to target in terms of points allowed and defensive efficiency, but they have yielded the 18th most fantasy points on the season. This doesn’t look like a great spot for the Pistons as their team total is below their season average, but the great thing with Detroit is that their starters tend to play predictable minutes.
Elite Plays
Tobias Harris
I really like this spot for Harris and I’m hoping he goes overlooked given all of the other games with higher totals. He’s finally settling in with the Pistons and with their injuries on the wings, his minutes are skyrocketing as he’s played 38, 36, 39 and 39 over his past four games. That’s great minute security at his price point, and the Hornets weakness is on the interior as they are 22nd in DVP against PF.
FD — $6,000— PF
DK — $6,200– SF
Min/Game —Season: 33.1 | Last Five Games: 35.4
FP/Game — Season: 26.9
Secondary Plays
Andre Drummond (elite DK)
I’m not really looking at him for cash games, but he’s certainly a guy that is always on the GPP radar. He’s back on the upswing as he’s put up at least 40 fantasy points in five of six games, and given that price point on DK, he’s a guy that is targetable in all formats as a double double is basically a given.
FD — $8,600— C
DK — $7,900– C
Min/Game —Season: 33.5 | Last Five Games: 30.8
FP/Game — Season: 40.3
Charlotte
Record: 35-28 — Home: 23-9 — Last 10: 8-2
- Charlotte Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.7 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 103.3
Projected Point Differential: +0.5
The Hornets are on a roll as they’re 8-2 over their last ten games, and have been terrific at home with a 23-9 record. White this game may not feature the totals of others, it should be very competitive and maybe if you get lucky get an overtime.
- Detroit Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.5 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +3.5 (4 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 192.85 (7 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
Spencer Hawes (O)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (O)
The Pistons are a team that I don’t necessarily avoid, but they also aren’t a team that I go out of my way to target, especially on a ten game slate. They are ranked in the top 11 of every category above, and outside of Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum, the Hornets tend to lack upside.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Kemba Walker
The Hornets have been a great home team and that has a lot to do with Kemba’s home/road splits as he’s been much better at home. PG is once again stacked tonight and his price is on the rise so he’s a secondary option for me. However, he’s at home where he excels and is rolling right now with at least 44 FD points in five straight games. He’s playing upwards of 40 minutes in competitive games and will likely go low owned tonight so he makes for a great tournament option.
FD — $9,100— PG
DK — $8,600– PG
Min/Game —Season: 36.1 | Last Five Games: 36.4
FP/Game — Season: 36.9
Nicolas Batum
He’s been moved back to SF on FD, but is still a SG on DK. I’m mostly neutral on him today as I’m leaning towards other plays at his price point, but he does provide triple double upside and is playing big minutes. In the first meeting, he produced a solid all around stat line of 13 points, 7 rebounds, 8 assists and 2 steals.
FD — $6,900— SF
DK — $7,000– SG
Min/Game —Season: 35.5 | Last Five Games: 37.2
FP/Game — Season: 30.3
Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers – 07:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -3.5, 211.5 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Sloan-Ellington-Bogdanovic-Young-Lopez
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Smith-Canaan-Covington-Noel-Okafor
| Brooklyn | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 211.5 | | Vegas Total | 211.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 107.5 | Team Proj. | 104.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.90 | Team Pace | 100.15 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Donald Sloan | Wayne Ellington | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Brook Lopez | Proj Starter | Ish Smith | Isaiah Canaan | Robert Covington | Nerlens Noel | Jahlil Okafor | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 18 | 28 | 28 | 30 | Opp. Season | 28 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 24 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 20 | 9 | 30 | 28 | Opp. Season | 30 | 24 | 4 | 14 | 19 | |
Brooklyn
Record: 18-46 — Road: 7-24 — Last 10: 4-6
- Brooklyn Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 97.8 (28 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 106.8
Projected Point Differential: +9.0
This is a game that only someone who plays DFS could love, as from a pure basketball stand point this is an awful game between two of the worst teams in the NBA. However, for DFS there is some spots to attack here as the Nets check in with a team total of 106.8 points, which is 9 points higher than their season average.
- Philadelphia Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.3 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.9 (30 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 212.69 (28 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
NONE
The 76ers have been a team that you can basically target across the board as they are awful in every defensive category. The Nets can be unpredictable with their minutes ast PG and SG so Donald Sloan and Wayne Ellington are very risky options, as Shane Larkin and Markel Brown are getting solid run off the bench. That leaves Bojan Bogdanovich, Thaddues Young and Brook Lopez as the players with the most secure minutes.
Elite Plays
Thaddeus Young
Thad is one of my favorite mid-range options on the slate and will draw an elite matchup against an awful Philly defense. He’s really enjoyed playing against his former team this year as he’s averaging 20.0 PPG, 10.5 RPG, and 1.5 APG in 36.0 MPG in two meetings.
FD — $6,800— SF
DK — $6,600– PF
Min/Game —Season: 33.1 | Last Five Games: 35.5
FP/Game — Season: 30.6
Brook Lopez
Lopez against Philly has been a strange phenomenon this year as it’s a matchup he should dominate on paper. However, he’s really struggled against them this year averaging just 12.0 PPG and 6 rebounds in 26.5 minutes, and also struggled against them last year averaging just 15.7 PPG and 6.7 rebounds in three meetings. I see the rationale for fading him due to those historical struggles, but the 76ers interior defense is just too porous for me to overlook and I think we see him get back on track against Philly.
FD — $8,700— C
DK — $7,800– C
Min/Game —Season: 33.8 | Last Five Games: 35.0
FP/Game — Season: 36.3
Secondary Plays
Bojan Bogdanovich
Bojan will throw up the occasional dud, but has been right around 20 FD points in five of his past seven games. He’s typically playing over 30 minutes a night and the 76ers are 28th in DVP against SF so he continues to be a cheap punt option.
FD — $4,000— SF
DK — $4,500– SG
Min/Game —Season: 26.5 | Last Five Games: 31.2
FP/Game — Season: 15.1
Philadelphia
Record: 8-56 — Home: 5-26 — Last 10: 0-10
- Philadelphia Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 96.7 (30 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 104.3
Projected Point Differential: +7.6
This is one of the few games that Philly can actually win (aside from that whole tanking thing), and they actually beat Brooklyn in the last meeting. Like Brooklyn, their team total is really elevated here as they are projected to score 7.6 points higher than their season average.
- Brooklyn Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.0 (19 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 206.10 (24 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
Jahlil Okafor (Q)
Like Philly, the Nets have been a team that you can target across the board. The big news to watch here is the status of Jahlil Okafor, and an update is supposed to come out later today. I have seen rumors of him missing extended so it sounds like he is much closer to doubtful than probable for tonight. If he does sit then Jerami Grant should continue to start at PF, and Ish Smith, Robert Covington and Nerlens Noel should pick up increased usage. I don’t mind Grant, but there’s some solid value today so he’s not quite making the cut for me.
Elite Plays
Ish Smith
The high end is loaded at PG today so he could get lost in the shuffle but if you’re looking mid-range then Ish is a great option. He’s cooled off after his great start in Philly, but he sees a big usage uptick if Okafor remains out. He’s shown that 40 fantasy point upside at a sub $7,000 price tag and the Nets are 28th in DVP against PG.
FD — $6,700— PG
DK — $6,800– PG
Min/Game —Season: 27.6 | Last Five Games: 35.4
FP/Game — Season: 27.1
Secondary Plays
Robert Covington
Covington’s minutes have stabilized and he’s benefitted from the absence of Okafor. He has struggled against Brooklyn this year averaging just 7.5 PPG and 5.0 RPG, but he’s playing much better now than he was earlier this season. I’m not trusting him for cash games but he’s displayed 6x upside over his past few games so he’s a guy to consider for tournaments against a bad Brooklyn defense.
FD — $6,200— SF
DK — $6,500– SF
Min/Game —Season: 27.7 | Last Five Games: 34.8
FP/Game — Season: 23.3
Nerlens Noel
He was supposed to have a minutes restriction of 25 last game, but instead played 32 minutes so his minute situation is one to monitor throughout the day. If Okafor is ruled out then he sees a solid uptick, and always presents big GPP upside due to his ability to rack up blocks and steals. In two meetings with Brooklyn he’s averaging 29.9 DK PPG in 26.5 MPG, and the upside is there if he’s going to see 30 minutes.
FD — $6,300— PF
DK — $6,100– PF
Min/Game —Season: 28.9 | Last Five Games: 28.0
FP/Game — Season: 27.1
Houston Rockets at Boston Celtics – 07:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Boston -6, 222 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Smith-Howard
- Boston Proj. Starters – Thomas-Bradley-Crowder-Johnson-Sullinger
| Houston | Boston | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 222 | | Vegas Total | 222 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 108.0 | Team Proj. | 114.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.07 | Team Pace | 101.30 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Josh Smith | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Isaiah Thomas | Avery Bradley | Jae Crowder | Amir Johnson | Jared Sullinger | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 8 | 21 | 26 | 27 | Opp. Season | 15 | 21 | 30 | 30 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 10 | 19 | 19 | 18 | Opp. Season | 17 | 23 | 23 | 11 | 20 | |
Houston
Record: 32-32 — Road: 15-18 — Last 10: 5-5
- Houston Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 105.8 (5 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 108.5
Projected Point Differential: +2.7
This slate is going to be fun and all the proof we need is that there are four games with totals over 220 points, including this one. The Rockets head to Boston as six point underdogs, and both teams really like to push the pace.
- Boston Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.9 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.1 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (20 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 198.08 (12 of 30)
The Celtics are similar to the Warriors in that they are very good in terms of defensive efficiency, but haven’t been a team to completely avoid due to their pace. They have defended opposing teams’ PG and SG very well, but do struggle on the interior. That could present some problems for Houston as their offense revolves around James Harden, and Boston hammered them earlier this season 111-95 in Houston. You can take a look at Trevor Ariza, as his minutes are very secure and the Celtics have struggled against SF, but SF has a ton of options so he doesn’t quite make the cut for me.
- Injury Watch:
NONE
Elite Plays
Dwight Howard
Unlike Harden, Howard does draw a quality matchp as the Boston interior can definitely be exploited. They are 27th in DVP against centers and Howard has finally turned it up since the All Star break. Howard wasn’t great against Boston earlier this year in the blowout defeat with 5 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 assists, but he’s playing much better basketball than he was earlier this year.
FD — $8,100— C
DK — $8,100– C
Min/Game —Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 34.4
FP/Game — Season: 34.2
Secondary Plays
James Harden
I really struggled with where to put Harden in the elite or secondary category. As mentioned, the Celtics have locked up opponents backcourts and are 8th in DVP against SG. Both Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart are great on ball defenders so this is a tough matchup for Harden. He struggled against Boston earlier this year with only 16 points, 1 rebound and 3 assists in 30 minutes, and was good but not great last year in two meetings with 20 PPG, 7 rebounds and 6.5 assists in 35.5 MPG. Given his $11,000 price tag that is definitely cause for concern so he’s currently not at the top of my list in terms of superstars to spend on. However, even with a tough matchup, his floor is very high as he’s playing incredible minutes right now. At 40 MPG, he’s basically a guy who is matchup proof in terms of fantasy floor, although the matchup with Boston certainly hurts his ceiling in my eyes. This really boils down to which elite player you prefer and I’m leanings more towards the high end PG, Kevin Durant and Anthony Davis.
FD — $11,000— SG
DK — $10,600– SG
Min/Game —Season: 37.8 | Last Five Games: 40.8
FP/Game — Season: 47.3
Boston
Record: 39-26 — Home: 23-10 — Last 10: 7-3
- Boston Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 106.2 (4 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 114.5
Projected Point Differential: +8.3
Boston looks to be in a great spot here against a terrible Houston defense. Their team total is sitting at 114 points, which is 8 points higher than their season average, and the only downside for Boston is that they can spread production around.
- Houston Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.9 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.2 (22 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 209.45 (27 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
Kelly Olynk (Q)
Jared Sullinger (P)
The Rockets have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league this year and it’s evident by the above numbers. They have been a team to target across the board, particularly with teams SG, SF and PF. Jared Sullinger is considered probable to play, while Kelly Olynk could make his return tonight but is listed as questionable. The Celtics rotation at PF and C is very unpredictable so I’d avoid them if Olynk returns, but Sullinger’s minutes should be more secure if Olynk sits again.
Elite Plays
Avery Bradley
The Celtics can be a tough team to figure out in terms of minutes, but Bradley is the surest bet to play big minutes. He’s a guy who can be scoring dependent, but his price is way down, especially on DK, and this certainly is a game where he should be able to score as Houston is 23rd in DVP against SG this season. He put up 21 points, 1 rebound and 2 assists in only 20 minutes against Houston earlier this season.
FD — $5,200— SG
DK — $4,700– SG
Min/Game —Season: 33.4 | Last Five Games: 34.6
FP/Game — Season: 23.3
Secondary Plays
Isaiah Thomas
There are some elite PG in nice spots tonight so I have Thomas as a secondary option, but this certainly is a nice spot for him. Patrick Beverley is one of the few quality defenders for Houston, but he hasn’t been the same defender as in years past. He’s playing minutes in the low 30’s but if he can get to that 36 minute mark or so then he presents quality upside in a track meet against the porous Rockets defense. Patrick Beverley didn’t play in the first meeting, but Thomas shredded the Rockets for 23 points, 3 rebounds and 6 assists in only 24 minutes.
FD — $8,000— PG
DK — $7,300– PG
Min/Game —Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 31.8
FP/Game — Season: 35.2
Jae Crowder
He only played 22 minutes last game, but for the most part his minutes are pretty dependable. The Rockets are dead last in DVP against SF on the season, and his price looks particularly appealing on DK.
FD — $6,100— SF
DK — $5,500– SF
Min/Game —Season: 32.0 | Last Five Games: 31.4
FP/Game — Season: 26.9
Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City – 08:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -12.5, 224 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-LaVine-Wiggins-Towns-Dieng
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
| Minnesota | Oklahoma City | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 224 | | Vegas Total | 224 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 12.5 | Vegas Sprd | -12.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 105.8 | Team Proj. | 118.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.33 | Team Pace | 99.49 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ricky Rubio | Zach LaVine | Andrew Wiggins | K. Towns | Gorgui Dieng | Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | Opp. Season | 19 | 24 | 20 | 9 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 19 | 17 | 26 | 27 | Opp. Season | 9 | 25 | 30 | 22 | 7 | |
Minnesota
Record: 20-45 — Road: 9-23 — Last 10: 3-7
- Minnesota Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.4 (20 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 105.5
Projected Point Differential: +4.1
It hasn’t shown up in their record as they’ve continued to struggled, but Minnesota has been a fun team for fantasy purposes recently. They’re playing high scoring games and are finally running out their youngsters for big minutes.
- Oklahoma City Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.3 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.0 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +7.8 (1 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.90 (11 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
Kevin Garnett (O)
Nikola Pekovic (O)
Greg Smith (P)
The Thunder haven’t been a great team to target in fantasy, especially with interior players, but they do play at a fast pace and Minnesota is expected to top their season average in this matchup.
Elite Plays
Zach LaVine
If I’m rostering a Minnesota player, my favorite option is LaVine, especially on a site like FD that requires two SGs. The fast pace of this game should fit his style very well and his minutes have been incredible recently. He’s averaging 39 MPG over his past five games, which is elite minute security. He’s also fared well against OKC this year averaging 23.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG and 1.7 APG in only 26.7 MPG (NOTE: Those numbers have come on 68.4% FG, which is unsustainable, but on the flipside he should see more run in this one than in the previous three).
UPDATE – Apparently LaVine’s shoulder is “a little messed up”. It doesn’t sound like he’ll miss tonights game but given the tons of options tonight, he might be better off as a tournament option given that injury information.
FD — $5,600— SG
DK — $5,900– SG
Min/Game —Season: 26.3 | Last Five Games: 39.2
FP/Game — Season: 21.8
Secondary Plays
Karl-Anthony Towns
Towns has been great recently and his minutes have finally started to stabilize. I prefer him as a tournament only option tonight though as he’s not cheap and OKC has been a tough matchup for Centers. They are first in rebounding differential and 5th in DVP against the position. OKC has done a good job against him this year as he’s averaging just 14.0 PPG, 11.7 RPG, 2.3 APG, and 1.0 block in 30.7 MPG. However, he did perform well in his last game against them with 19 points, 13 rebounds and 5 assists.
FD — $8,900— C
DK — $7,900– C
Min/Game —Season: 31.0 | Last Five Games: 34.8
FP/Game — Season: 35.3
Oklahoma City
Record: 44-20 — Home: 26-8 — Last 10: 4-6
- Oklahoma City Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 110.1 (2 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 118.0
Projected Point Differential: +7.9
The Thunder have really been scuffling recently, but got a big win over the Clippers last game, and should roll over Minnesota tonight. They check in with a team total of 118 points, which is 7.9 higher than their season average, and the only concern is the risk of the blowout as the spread is 12.5 points.
- Minnesota Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.3 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +0.7 (12 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.03 (17 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
Dion Waiters (Q)
As evidenced by their points allowed and defensive efficiency, Minnesota has fallen off defensively as the year has progressed. These two teams have already played three teams and Thunder’s point totals have progressively risen as they scored 101 in the first meeting, 113 in the second, and 126 in the last meeting. The one worry is that these two teams played two competitive games in Minnesota but the game in Oklahoma City was a 20 point Thunder win, which limited the minutes of Westbrook (27) and Durant (30).
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook
I’m a little leery of the blowout, the there is the same risk of a blowout in the Golden State/Portland game. As always if you’re spending, it’s hard to go wrong with Westbrook and he’s an elite option on a daily basis. He flashed his insane upside last game with 67 FD points, and Minnesota is 21st in DVP against PG on the season. He hasn’t been great against Minnesota this season though averaging 19.3 PPG, 8.7 RPG, and 12 APG in 32.3 MPG, but even when he’s just “ok” he gets you 45 to 50 fantasy points.
FD — $10,900— PG
DK — $10,800– PG
Min/Game —Season: 34.7 | Last Five Games: 36.8
FP/Game — Season: 49.5
Kevin Durant
The only concerns I have with Westbrook and Durant would be the blowout, but the value is there today to fit one or both into your lineups. Durant has taken a backseat to Westbrook for much of the season, but that has chanced since the All Star Break. He’s put together seven straight games of 50+ FD point games, including topping 59 points three times. The matchup is great against Minnesota, who is 21st in DVP against SFs. In three meetings with Minnesota, he’s averaging 26.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG, and 5 APG in 34.3 MPG. He presents a great floor as well as an elite ceiling and is the elite SF option if you’re spending at the position.
FD — $10,900— SF
DK — $10,500– SF
Min/Game —Season: 36.2 | Last Five Games: 37.2
FP/Game — Season: 46.4
Secondary Plays
NONE
New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies – 08:00 PM
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -1.5, 202.5 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Douglas-Cunningham-Davis-Asik
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Weber-Allen-Barnes-Randolph-Green
| New Orleans | Memphis | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | Vegas Sprd | +1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102 | Team Proj. | 100.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.00 | Team Pace | 95.52 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jrue Holiday | Toney Douglas | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | Briante Weber | Tony Allen | Matt Barnes | Zach Randolph | Jamychal Green | |
| Opp. Season | 8 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 2 | Opp. Season | 14 | 25 | 15 | 16 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 22 | Opp. Season | 7 | 30 | 27 | 28 | 10 | |
New Orleans
Record: 24-39 — Road: 7-24 — Last 10: 4-6
- New Orleans Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.7 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.0
Projected Point Differential: -0.7
The total on this game isn’t overly impressive at just 202 points, but both teams are dealing with tons of injuries so there are tons of minutes and shot attempts to go around.
- Memphis Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.6 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.5 (24 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 191.46 (6 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
Norris Cole (D)
Eric Gordon (O)
Bryce Jones (O)
Alexis Ajinca (O)
Luke Babbit (Q)
As you can see the Pelicans are depleted so guys like Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday have been taking tons of shots. Memphis has been a tough team to target this year, but Memphis is depleted as well so their season long defensive numbers don’t have much bearing.
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis
His shot attempts have finally spiked as he’s averaging 20.6 FGA over his past five games, including shot attempt totals of 26, 21 and 31 over his past three games. He’s averaged 20.3 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 2.3 assists and 4.3 blocks in 38.3 MPG against Memphis this year, and that was with Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Mike Conley in the lineup. He’s a tough guy to trust but given his shot attempts and usage recently, he’s a guy I want exposure too as he should dominate the depleted Memphis interior.
FD — $10,300— PF
DK — $9,800– PF
Min/Game —Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 37.2
FP/Game — Season: 44.4
Jrue Holiday
His minutes are finally way up as he’s played 36, 37 and 38 minutes over his past three games and has averaged 21 FGA in those three games. With all of the injuries, he’s stepped in as the starting SG, but will start at PG if Cole misses another game. It sounds like Cole is doubtful so Holiday should start at PG against a D-League call up or Lance Stephenson.
FD — $8,400— PG
DK — $7,900– PG
Min/Game —Season: 27.3 | Last Five Games: 33.8
FP/Game — Season: 36.6
Secondary Plays
Norris Cole or Toney Douglas
Norris Cole is doubtful and if he sits then Douglas will be locked into big minutes. With Cole out last game, he played 37 minutes and produced 23 FD points and is cheap around the industry. If Cole suits up then he’s been providing nice upside at his price point as he’s topped 36 FD points in three of his last six games.
Memphis
Record: 38-26 — Home: 23-10 — Last 10: 6-4
- Memphis Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 99.1 (25 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 100.5
Projected Point Differential: +1.4
- New Orleans Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.4 (23 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 203.99 (21 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
Marc Gasol (O)
Zach Randolph (Q)
Mike Conley (O)
Mario Chalmers (O)
Brandan Wright (O)
Chris Anderson (Q)
The entire Memphis team is basically injured, and it was just announced that Mike Conley is out indefinitely. The injuries to watch here are Zach Randolph and Chris Anderson as they could return tonight.
Elite Plays
Tony Allen & Vince Carter
The Grizzlies are once again the team to look to for value. Jamychal Green value has spiked but Allen and Carter remain cheap and has played 30 MPG since returning from injury. He’s not a great offensive player but there will be plenty of shot attemps to go around and the Pelicans are 26th in DVP against SG. Vince Carter is still very cheap, especially on FD, and has averaged 30 FD points over his last two games.
Secondary Plays
Jamychal Green (bump to elite if Randolph/Anderson out)
He’s coming off of two monster performances and thankfully the sites bumped his price point so he’s not 80% owned. At his current price point, I think he’s still in play, but we do need to make sure that Randolph and Anderson are out once again. If they are then he’ll play huge minutes against a defense that is 29th in DVP against centers. In that scenario I think he’s in play in all formats, but certainly not a must like the past few nights as there are options like Thaddues Young and Tobias Harris at similar price points. If Randolph is ruled out then I’d definitely downgrade Green.
FD — $6,400— PF
DK — $5,700– PF
Min/Game —Season: 16.3 | Last Two Games: 27.8
FP/Game — Season: 13.1
Lance Stephenson & Matt Barnes
The Grizzlies were forced to sign Briante Weber due to the injuries to Mike Conley and Mario Chalmers. It sounds like he may start, but we’ll have to await final word. Weber isn’t available on FD or DK so we don’t have to worry about him, but Stephenson, Carter, and Barnes should all continue to see elevated minutes. I’m really curious to hear how the PG minutes will be divided as Stephenson should have to play some PG, the question is how much. Barnes is another Grizzlies that should easily be locked into 30 minutes. I’m not necessarily going all on in on any of Allen, Carter, Lance or Barnes but they are all guys to consider and be sprinkled in your lineups.
