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NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 11th - Page Two

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2016-03-11 23:18:57

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Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls – 08:00 PM

Miami Chicago
miaminba Vegas Total 202 chicagonba Vegas Total 202
Vegas Sprd -3.5 Vegas Sprd -2.5
Team Proj. 102.8 Team Proj. 99.3
Team Pace 95.59 Team Pace 98.99
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Joe Johnson Luol Deng Hassan Whiteside Proj Starter Derrick Rose E’Twaun Moore Mike Dunleavy Taj Gibson Pau Gasol
Opp. Season 27 16 22 24 26 Opp. Season 2 2 17 5 6
Opp. Last 7 11 27 15 29 25 Opp. Season 2 13 14 15 5

Miami

Record: 37-27 — Road: 16-15 — Last 10: 7-3

The Heat have continued to play well in the absence of Chris Bosh and should find offensive success against a bad Chicago defense that is without Jimmy Butler.

The Bulls have been a bottom five team in terms of fantasy points allowed so the Heat are in a nice spot. The big news to watch here is that Wade is listed as a GTD, which would provide a great usage uptick for the likes of Dragic, Deng and Whiteside. If Wade plays he’s someone to potentially consider as a tournament option, but given the injury concerns I can’t trust him in cash games on a ten game slate.

Elite Plays

Hassan Whiteside

The minutes can be frustrating but the production hasn’t been as he’s been terrific since the All Star break. The Bulls interior defense has been very weak all season and Whiteside just recently dominated them for 26 points, 14 rebounds, 1 assist and 4 blocks in 33 minutes.

FD — $8,700— C
DK — $8,200– C
Min/Game —Season: 28.8 | Last Five Games: 30.0
FP/Game — Season: 35.0

Secondary Plays

Luol Deng

He’s really picked his game up since moving to PF with Chris Bosh out, and put up 20 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists in 37 minutes against Chicago earlier this month. He was great with both Wade and Bosh after the All Star break, and gets a strong boost if Wade does sit.

FD — $6,300— SF
DK — $6,100– SF
Min/Game —Season: 31.9 | Last Five Games: 35.0
FP/Game — Season: 22.8

Goran Dragic

Like Whiteside and Deng, Dragic has made the most of his usage uptick with Bosh out. He’s still affordable around the industry and the Bulls have been a team to target with PG all season long. Dragic took advantage in their last meeting with 17 points, 4 rebounds and 11 assists. I currently have him as a secondary option, but if Wade is ruled out then I think he’s an elite option as he’s excelled with Wade and Bosh out.

FD — $6,600— PG
DK — $6,600– PG
Min/Game —Season: 32.8 | Last Five Games: 35.4
FP/Game — Season: 26.1

Chicago

Record: 32-31 — Home: 21-11 — Last 10: 5-5

Chicago is battling for a playoff spot and could be without Jimmy Butler. They check in with one of the lower team totals on the night and are a team to tread lightly with.

Jimmy Butler is listed as questionable for tonight, but he sounds closer to doubtful. The Heat haven’t been quite as good defensively with Bosh out, but they’re still not a team I fully target. If Butler does sit then E’twaun Moore should start, but there is plenty of value on the slate so I’m not really looking his way. Derrick Rose sees a big usage uptick but there are just tons of PG on this slate.

UPDATE – Rose is now listed as questionable (shocker). If he sits then Pau will get elite level usage and E’twaun Moore would become more interesting.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Pau Gasol

Gasol is the only Bull really on the radar as Miami is a tough team to target. He’s seen a ton of usage right now and produced a quality game against an elite San Antonio defense last night. Against Miami this year, he’s averaging 17 PPG, 13.0 RPG, 4 APG and 1.5 blocks.

FD — $9,500— C
DK — $8,200– C
Min/Game —Season: 32.1 | Last Five Games: 33.2
FP/Game — Season: 39.3

Washington Wizards at Utah Jazz – 09:00 PM

Washington Utah
washingtonnba Vegas Total 198 utahnba Vegas Total 198
Vegas Sprd +3.5 Vegas Sprd -3.5
Team Proj. 97.3 Team Proj. 100.8
Team Pace 100.25 Team Pace 93.54
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter John Wall Garrett Temple Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj Starter Shelvin Mack Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert
Opp. Season 9 5 2 2 3 Opp. Season 16 22 26 6 12
Opp. Last 7 13 26 10 13 3 Opp. Season 20 16 21 2 15

Washington

Record: 30-33 — Road: 14-16 — Last 10: 5-5

The Wizard are in dire need of a win to stick in the playoff race, but draw the worst fantasy matchup on the board and have a team total of just 97 points.

The Jazz play at a very slow pace and are an elite defensive team so Washington looks like a team to fade tonight. Maybe John Wall is a tournament option as he should be very low owned but with so many quality options tonight it just doesn’t make sense to target the Wizards.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Utah

Record: 29-35 — Home: 19-13 — Last 10: 2-8

The Jazz are in a tailspin and really need to pull out a home win tonight. From a fantasy perspective this is the least appealing games on the slate with a total under 200.

Rodney Hood is going to try to play which puts a damper on Trey Burke, and it doesn’t sounds like Hood is someone that you want to trust tonight. I’m really just looking at Hayward in this matchup as the Wizards wing defense is the spot to target, but Derrick Favors does carry GPP upside and should be low owned.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Gordon Hayward

I’m not enthused about this game, but Hayward does draw a nice matchup as the Wizards have struggled against wings all season long. He’ll likely be fairly low owned and we should see him play big minutes as the Jazz really need to pick up a win.

FD — $7,100— SF
DK — $6,900– SF
Min/Game —Season: 36.2 | Last Five Games: 36.4
FP/Game — Season: 31.9

Orlando Magic at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 PM

Orlando Sacramento
orlandonba Vegas Total 221 sacramentonba Vegas Total 221
Vegas Sprd +2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 109.5 Team Proj. 111.5
Team Pace 97.78 Team Pace 102.48
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Jason Smith Proj Starter Rajon Rondo Marco Belinelli Rudy Gay Quincy Acy W. Cauley-Stein
Opp. Season 23 29 24 29 20 Opp. Season 21 6 18 19 11
Opp. Last 7 16 9 28 17 6 Opp. Season 10 11 6 23 23

Orlando

Orlando

Record: 27-36 — Road: 10-20 — Last 10: 3-7

The Magic draw the top matchup on the board as they’ll face the terrible Sacramento defense. They have a team total 8.7 points higher than their season average and will also be down two starters in Nikola Vucevic and Elfrid Payton.

The Kings have been a team to target across the board and Victor Oladipo and Evan Fourneir should see big usage with Payton and Vucevic out of the lineup. It was just announced that C. J. Watson will draw the start for Elfrid Payton so Brandon Jennings is a tournament only option. I’d view Watson as a tournament only option as well as I don’t trust Scott Skiles and he still has plenty of ball handlers to use so neither is guaranteed minutes.

Elite Plays

Victor Oladipo

He only played 26 minutes in the first game between these two and had 11 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists. However, the Kings are 29th in DVP against SG on the season, and he should pick up big usage with Vuc and Elfrid out. He’s a great mid-range option to get into your lineups.

FD — $7,000— SG
DK — $7,200– SG
Min/Game —Season: 32.2 | Last Five Games: 35.8
FP/Game — Season: 28.6

Evan Fournier

He had a solid game against Sacramento earlier this year with 17 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals in 35 minutes, and his minutes are back on the rise. Along with Oladipo, he’s my favorite option on the Magic and is very affordable around the industry.

FD — $5,500— SF
DK — $5,900– SG
Min/Game —Season: 32.0 | Last Five Games: 33
FP/Game — Season: 23

Secondary Plays

Aaron Gordon (elite GPP)

I love his upside here so I think he’s an elite GPP option, but I can’t get on board for cash games as his minutes have been up and down recently.

FD — $6,600— PF
DK — $6,700– PF
Min/Game —Season: 23.1 | Last Five Games: 26.4
FP/Game — Season: 20.8

Sacramento

Record: 25-38 — Home: 14-17 — Last 10: 3-7

This is another game to look for value as both teams are down starters and neither team plays very good defense. The Kings check in with a team total of 111 points, and will be without Boogie Cousins so the Kings present solid value today.

This sets up as a nice spot for the Kings as there is tons of usage to go around with Cousins out of the lineup. Ben McLemore is also expected to sit so Marco Belinelli could draw the start. Either Willie Cauley-Stein or Kosta Koufos should draw the start for Cousins so that is the news to watch here.

Elite Plays

Rudy Gay

He’s one of my favorite mid-range plays around the industry as he sees a usage spike with Cousins off the floor. In the nine games Boogies has missed, he’s averaging 17.4 FGA, compared to 14.5 on the season, and his price has also dropped across the industry. Orlando is 17th in DVP against SF and he’ll have a solid size advantage over Evan Fournier.

FD — $6,700— SF
DK — $6,000– SF
Min/Game —Season: 34.1 | Last Five Games: 38.0
FP/Game — Season: 30.5

Kosta Koufos (if he starts)

In the nine games that Cousins has missed this year, Koufos has averaged 27.7 MPG, 11.3 PPG, 8.6 RPG, and 24.5 Fanduel PPG. If he draws the start, at his minimum price salary around the industry, he’s an elite value against a susceptible Orlando interior defense that is starting Jason Smith at center.

NOTE – If Cauley-Stein draws the start I still think Koufos is in play but I’d downgrade Koufos to secondary and also give strong consideration to Cauley-Stein as an elite value.

FD — $3,500— C
DK — $3,000– C
Min/Game —Season: 18.4 | Last Five Games: 11.8
FP/Game — Season: 15.0

Secondary Plays

Rajon Rondo

Rondo is the one King that hasn’t been better with Boogie out of the lineup as he’s averaging 34.5 FD PPG in the games Boogie has missed, but 37.4 FD points on the season. He’s a guy who is assist reliant so it makes sense that he would take a hit when the Kings’ top scorer sits. I like the cheaper Kings’ options today, but I’m not scratching him off the list as a tournament, as Orlando does present a quality matchup

FD — $8,200— PG
DK — $7,800– PG
Min/Game —Season: 35.4 | Last Five Games: 38.2
FP/Game — Season: 37.4

Marco Belinelli

Ben McLemore has been downgraded to doubtful so we’ll need to monitor the news to see if Belinelli draw the start. There is plenty of value out there today so he’s not a must but he’s almost minimum price and plays a weak position. He’s averaged almost 20 FD PPG in the games Boogie has missed this year, and is intriguing if he does draw the start. The downside is a tough matchup with Victor Oladipo.

FD — $3,500— SG
DK — $3,400– SF
Min/Game —Season: 23.3 | Last Five Games: 25.3
FP/Game — Season: 15.5

Darren Collison

He’s averaged 20.7 FD PPG without Boogie this year so he hasn’t seen a huge uptick. However, his minutes have become very secure recently, there will be more shots available tonight, and he’s flashed 6x upside, especially at his cheap price point on DK.

FD — $5,300— PG
DK — $4,800– PG
Min/Game —Season: 29.1 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 22.3

Portland Trailblazers at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM

Portland Golden State
portlandnba Vegas Total 226 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 226
Vegas Sprd 12.5 Vegas Sprd -12.5
Team Proj. 106.8 Team Proj. 119.3
Team Pace 97.73 Team Pace 102.26
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Noah Vonleh Mason Plumlee Proj Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut
Opp. Season 26 9 16 14 21 Opp. Season 17 19 6 20 23
Opp. Last 7 22 2 26 20 1 Opp. Season 19 17 16 21 8

Portland

Record: 34-31 — Road: 14-19 — Last 10: 6-4

Portland has been one of the surprise teams in the NBA this year as they’re currently holding down the 6th seed in the West. However, they’re likely to take an “L” tonight as they head into Oracle, where the Warriors have been unbeatable.

The Warriors are an elite defense when they want to lock in, but they play at such a fast pace that are a solid team to target. They also go through stretches where they will be complacent. I’m not expecting that tonight as I think we could see an angry Golden State team after they were embarrassed by Portland in their previous matchup(137-105 Portland win). Vegas has Portland installed as 13 point underdogs here and Portland’s rotations are unpredictable outside of Lillard and McCollum, who are locked into big minutes.

Elite Plays

Damian Lillard

There’s some blowout risk and it’s always a tough proposition heading into Oracle arena. However, it’s tough to ignore what Lillard has done to Golden State this season. The Warriors are just 26th in DVP against PG and Lillard has taken full advantage. He torched the Warriors and Curry in the previous meeting (51 real points) and is averaging 45.5 PPG and 8.5 assists against them this season. He’s also from Oakland so this is a hometown game and he’s apparently extra amped for this one.

FD — $9,600— PG
DK — $9,800– PG
Min/Game —Season: 36.1 | Last Five Games: 37.0
FP/Game — Season: 40.9

Secondary Plays

C.J. McCollum

His price has finally started to come back down to the $7,000 range. I’m likely to target some cheaper SG or a guy like Oladipo, who is similarly priced. However, I don’t mind him here as he’s the only other safe Portland player, outside of Lillard, and is averaging 19 PPG, 3.5 rebounds and 5 assists in 34 MPG against the Warriors this season.

FD — $6,800— SG
DK — $7,100– SG
Min/Game —Season: 35.0 | Last Five Games: 35.6
FP/Game — Season: 31.7

Golden State

Record: 57-6 — Home: 28-0 — Last 10: 9-1

The Warriors unsurprisingly check in with the top team total on the day at nearly 120 points, which is 3.9 points higher than their season average. Portland pasted the Warriors in Portland last game, and Vegas expects some revenge to be exacted tonight as the Warriors are installed as 13 point favorites.

Portland has been a quality team to target this season at every position except for SF. They’ve also been struggling defensively as they’ve allowed 116, 117 , 123 and 109 (OT) points over their last four games. The Warriors lost 137 to 105 in their previous meeting in Portland, but won 128-108 in Oracle earlier this year. The Warriors are a competitive bunch and I’m expecting a big showing from them tonight, but the risk of a blowout does loom.

Elite Plays

Stephen Curry

This matchup should be really fun to watch, and I’ll definitely have a lineup where I pair Curry and Lillard up. Curry is averaging 28.5 PPG, 3 rebounds and 7 assists in only 27.5 MPG against Portland this year, and I’m sure he remembers the show Lillard put on the last time they faced each other. There is some risk of a blowout here, but blowout risk is present in each matchup for the elite PG tonight.

FD — $10,600— PG
DK — $10,300– PG
Min/Game —Season: 34.0 | Last Five Games: 35.0
FP/Game — Season: 47.9

Draymond Green

Green has continued to struggle offensively, and has had nights where he scores 1 or 2 real life points. However, that has brought his price down to a manageable level where we can target him in positive spots. This looks like a positive spot as Portland is weak on the interior (18th against PF and 23rd against C) and he’s averaged a near triple double against Portland with 12.5 PPG, 12.5 RPG, and 9 assists in 32 MPG.

FD — $8,200— PF
DK — $8,000– PF
Min/Game —Season: 34.5 | Last Five Games: 36.0
FP/Game — Season: 38.6

Secondary Plays

Klay Thompson

Klay is a guy who is a GPP only guy for me as he’s very scoring dependent. However, his price is drifting back downwards and he can explode for 40 real points in most matchups. He hasn’t had that huge blowup game in a while so one is coming soon, and Portland is 19th in DVP against SG.
In the two previous games with Portland, he’s averaged 29.5 PPG, 4.5 rebounds and 3 assists.

FD — $7,000— SG
DK — $7,000– SG
Min/Game —Season: 33.1 | Last Five Games: 33.8
FP/Game — Season: 30.5

New York Knicks at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:30 PM

New York L.A. Clippers
newyorknba Vegas Total 203.5 laclippersnba Vegas Total 203.5
Vegas Sprd 9.5 Vegas Sprd -9.5
Team Proj. 97.0 Team Proj. 106.5
Team Pace 95.96 Team Pace 98.55
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jose Calderon Sasha Vujacic Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez Proj Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Paul Pierce Luc Mbah a Moute DeAndre Jordan
Opp. Season 5 7 10 8 22 Opp. Season 18 14 11 7 18
Opp. Last 7 29 1 18 24 16 Opp. Season 23 18 13 9 21

New York

Record: 27-39 — Road: 11-21 — Last 10: 4-6

The Knicks have managed to win two of their last three games, but have mostly been playing terrible basketball since late January. They’re in a tough spot tonight as they are solid underdogs and have a team total of just 97 points.

The Clippers struggled defensively to start the year, but have fixed their issues and have become a team to tread lightly against. They do struggle on the glass, but it’s tough for me trust a guy like Robin Lopez on a loaded ten game slate. The one injury situation to monitor is Arron Afflalo, who missed the last game, and has been ruled out for tonight. Sasha Vujacic drew the start and played well, but keep in mind that did come against a terrible Phoenix defense. I don’t hate the play with Afflalo out, but given the tough matchup and other value, he doesn’t make the cut for me.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Carmelo Anthony

I’m not very high on the Knicks tonight, and I’ll likely just pass on them entirely. However, Carmelo is averaging 37 MPG over his past five games, and he’s topped 40 FD points in five of his last seven. He’s too expensive for me on FD, but isn’t overly expensive on DK. He was held in check by the Clippers earlier this year as he had 16 points, 4 rebounds and 6 assists in 30 minutes as the Knicks were blown out.

FD — $9,100— SF
DK — $8,500– SF
Min/Game —Season: 35.3 | Last Five Games: 37.0
FP/Game — Season: 38.1

L.A. Clippers

Record: 41-22 — Home: 21-11 — Last 10: 6-4

The Clippers face a New York team that has fallen out of playoff contention and doesn’t have a lot to play for. They’re expected to grab a fairly easy win, and have a team total just above their season average.

The Knicks defensive numbers on the season are solid, and they play at a slow pace so they haven’t been a great team to target. They have shown signs of slipping defensively as they are now routinely allowing 100+ PPG, which is evidenced by their slippage in DVP. These two teams have met once already with the Clippers hammering the Knicks 116 – 85, and were also without Blake Griffin in that one.

Elite Plays

Secondary Plays

Chris Paul

The top 3 highest priced PG in Paul, Westbrook, and Curry are all in spots with slight blowout risk, but each draw quality DVP matchups. I slightly prefer the upside of Westbrook and Curry so I have Paul as a secondary option, but it’s really splitting hairs between those three and he should carve up the NY PGs. He’s dominating the offense with Blake Griffin out and put up 16 points, 6 rebounds and 13 assists in only 28 minutes against the Knicks earlier this season (Blake was out in that game as well).

FD — $10,000— PG
DK — $9,700– PG
Min/Game —Season: 33.3 | Last Five Games: 35.6
FP/Game — Season: 41.3

DeAndre Jordan

Jordan has really picked up his game recently, and is certainly someone to consider. I’m finding myself looking in few other directions but certainly don’t mind the matchup against Robin Lopez. In the earlier meeting between these teams, He had 20 points, 8 rebounds and 2 assists in 30 minutes

FD — $8,400— C
DK — $7,700– C
Min/Game —Season: 34.1 | Last Five Games: 35.2
FP/Game — Season: 35.6

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a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)