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NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-03-04 03:16:41

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

New York Knicks Philadelphia 76ers
newyorknba Vegas Total 217.0 philadelphianba Vegas Total 217.0
Vegas Spread -2.0 Vegas Spread 2.0
Team Total 109.5 Team Total 107.5
Pace +/- 2.1 Pace +/- 0.5
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Lance Thomas Kristaps Porzingis Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Nik Stauskas Robert Covington Dario Saric Jahlil Okafor
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 23 23 10 11 29 Adj. DvP 8 21 26 20 27
DRPM 0.21 -0.99 3.57 -1.17 -1.70 DRPM -2.72 -1.00 -2.14 -1.50 1.66

New York Knicks

We have a ten-game slate on tap tonight and some major tournaments on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Most notably, we have a $55 Slam on FanDuel that pays $100,000 to first and a $1,500 Courtside Special on DraftKings that also pays $100,000 to first. There are also qualifiers running for both of the live events, so it is shaping up to be quite a night of DFS. I also want to plug the RotoAcademy videos with myself and JMToWin. We have received a ton of great feedback on the videos, so check those out if you haven’t already.

The first game to tip-off tonight is one of my personal favorites on the slate. The Knicks and Sixers are both ranked in the bottom ten in points allowed per game and we have a small spread of only two points. The Sixers have been an exploitable matchup for most of the season, especially when Joel Embiid has not been on the floor. The Knicks come into the game as 2-point favorites with an implied total of 109.5 points. New York’s team total is the fourth highest of the 20 teams in action, so we can give a sizable boost to their offense as a whole.

Since the Knicks waived Brandon Jennings, Derrick Rose has averaged 36 minutes and 30 fantasy points per contest. He grades out as one of the top point-per-dollar plays at point guard, as the Sixers are ranked 23rd in adjusted DvP against the position. Rose should be a good bet for 35 minutes in one of the highest scoring games of the night. If we asked 100 DFS players whether or not they liked to roster Courtney Lee, we would probably get 95 of them to say no. Lee has burned me more times than I can count, but he is averaging 38 minutes in his last two games and he gets to face the Sixers. I won’t be looking Lee’s way in cash games, but he is certainly on my radar in tournaments. Carmelo Anthony is a little expensive on FanDuel, but sitting at a very playable $7,500 on DraftKings. Robert Covington is an elite on-ball defender, but Anthony has scored 39 and 46 fantasy points in his last two games against Philadelphia. With Willy Hernangomez ruled out again, Kristaps Porzingis will likely start at the five again tonight. He has played at least 32 minutes in four of his last five games and draws one of the best possible matchups for a big man. Even with his recent form, Porzingis is one of my favorite plays in the slate. When Kyle O’Quinn is chalk, 60% of the time, it fails every time (Anchorman joke). Everyone will be off of him tonight, which means I will be going right back to the well in tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Derrick Rose $6,400 $6,000 0.88 32.4 3.4 28.6 1.8 27.6% -2.7% 23 0.21
Courtney Lee $5,000 $4,700 0.61 31.5 3.7 19.1 6.4 14.3% 0.3% 23 -0.99
Carmelo Anthony $8,100 $7,500 1.04 34.3 4.3 35.7 0.9 29.8% 0.7% 10 3.57
Lance Thomas $4,100 $3,700 0.50 19.1 9.6 9.6 8.5 13.0% -1.5% 11 -1.17
Kristaps Porzingis $6,700 $6,600 0.98 32.7 -5.7 32.1 -6.9 23.4% 1.3% 29 -1.70
Kyle O’Quinn $4,900 $5,600 1.16 15.5 2.2 18.0 4.1 19.4% -3.1% 29 N/A

Elite Plays – Derrick Rose, Kristaps Porzingis, Carmelo Anthony (DK), Kyle O’Quinn (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Carmelo Anthony (FD), Kyle O’Quinn (Cash), Courtney Lee (DK)

Philadelphia 76ers

Let’s all take a moment to pour one out for our homie, Joel Embiid. The Process has been ruled for the rest of the season. As huge Embiid fans, we just have to hope that he’s able to return completely healthy next season. Even though Embiid is a blow to the Sixers, it gives them a chance to develop some of their young bigs in Dario Saric and Richaun Holmes. The Sixers draw an excellent matchup tonight at home against the Knicks, who are ranked 25th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season. The Sixers have a projected point differential of +5.8, which is the third highest in the slate.

T.J. McConnell has played well in his last five games, averaging 26 fantasy points in only 29 minutes per contest. Assuming tonight’s game stays close, he could end up playing 30-32 minutes with Derrick Rose (-2.72 DRPM) defending him most of the time. McConnell isn’t an elite play given the wealth of options at point guard, but he deserves a close look in tournaments. Gerald Henderson has been ruled out of the next two games, which opens the door for Nik Stauskas to play 30-32 minutes as well. He is a volatile player, but he grades out as an elite point-per-dollar play at shooting guard. If you are trying to fit Russell Westbrook in your lineup, Stauskas can certainly help you get there. Robert Covington is averaging 39 fantasy points in his last five games and should see all of the minutes that he can handle defending Carmelo Anthony. He is no longer priced at a discount, but is a borderline elite play in all formats. The same can be said for Dario Saric, who has scored at least 34 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. Brett Brown just raves about this kid and we can expect big things from him the rest of the way. I’m not a huge Jahlil Okafor fan, but I do like his backup in Richaun Holmes. If you take out the game where he picked up two fouls in one minute (vs. the Knicks), he has averaged 32 fantasy points in the three games since the Nerlens Noel trade.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
T.J. McConnell $5,600 $5,400 0.82 25.2 3.4 20.7 5.4 19.1% -0.8% 8 -2.72
Nik Stauskas $4,000 $3,800 0.60 26.8 -1.8 16.1 0.7 16.5% 4.0% 21 -1.00
Robert Covington $7,200 $7,200 0.84 31.3 2.3 26.2 12.3 18.3% 2.4% 26 -2.14
Dario Saric $7,300 $7,400 0.85 25.1 8.7 21.4 12.8 22.8% 2.4% 20 -1.50
Jahlil Okafor $5,100 $4,900 0.87 23.0 -1.6 19.9 -2.3 22.6% 3.5% 27 1.66
Richaun Holmes $4,600 $4,800 0.96 16.8 7.1 16.2 12.2 17.4% -1.0% 20 N/A
Nik Stauskas $4,000 $3,800 0.60 26.8 -1.8 16.1 0.7 16.5% 4.0% 21 N/A

Elite Plays – Dario Saric, Robert Covington, Nik Stauskas, Richaun Holmes (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Richaun Holmes (Cash), T.J. McConnell

Miami Heat at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Miami Heat Orlando Magic
miaminba Vegas Total 208.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Spread -3.5 Vegas Spread 3.5
Team Total 106.0 Team Total 102.5
Pace +/- -0.3 Pace +/- -1.1
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Rodney McGruder Dion Waiters Luke Babbitt Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Terrence Ross Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 27 18 11 17 24 Adj. DvP 4 5 5 12 19
DRPM -0.82 -0.80 -0.79 -0.57 1.99 DRPM -1.96 -0.74 0.21 1.68 2.06

Miami Heat

The Heat have won seven of their last ten games and are only a single game behind the Pistons for the eighth and final seed in the East. They are on the road tonight against the Magic, but they don’t have to travel very far. Orlando has not fared well on the defensive end of the floor this season, ranking below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Miami comes into the game as a 3.5-point favorite with an implied total of 106 points, which is considerably higher than their season average.

My interest in the Heat guards depends on the availability of Dion Waiters, who is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. If he is able to suit up, Goran Dragic and Tyler Johnson would both be secondary point guard options in a full slate. However, if Waiters is ruled out, I will have a lot more interest in both Dragic and Johnson. Dragic sees a small usage boost with Waiters off the floor and Johnson’s minute projection would go from 28-30 up to 30-32, which makes a big difference. James Johnson has cooled off a bit recently, but his price is down to $5,600 on DraftKings, which puts him on my radar in tournaments. Hassan Whiteside and Nikola Vucevic seem to have an agreement to let each other score at will when they play each other. In his last five games against Vucevic, Whiteside has scored 41, 61, 43, 40 and 40 fantasy points. Whiteside is slightly underpriced on DraftKings at $8,100.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Goran Dragic $7,600 $7,100 0.99 33.9 -3.8 33.5 -1.9 29.1% 1.7% 27 -0.82
Rodney McGruder $3,500 $3,000 0.54 25.9 -3.5 13.9 -0.4 12.3% -0.3% 18 -0.80
Dion Waiters $6,600 $6,400 0.89 30.7 0.4 27.4 3.3 27.3% 1.1% 11 -0.79
Luke Babbitt $3,500 $3,000 0.55 15.8 1.2 8.7 5.3 13.2% 0.2% 17 -0.57
Hassan Whiteside $8,800 $8,100 1.17 32.7 -2.0 38.3 1.4 21.3% 0.9% 24 1.99
James Johnson $6,000 $5,600 0.94 26.5 -0.1 24.9 -1.0 23.1% 0.6% 17 N/A
Tyler Johnson $5,800 $5,200 0.88 30.5 -2.1 26.7 1.2 21.9% -0.8% 27 N/A

Elite Plays – Goran Dragic (if Waiters is out), Hassan Whiteside (DK)

Secondary Plays – Hassan Whiteside (FD), Tyler Johnson, James Johnson

Orlando Magic

The Magic are one of my least favorite teams to see on the schedule. It’s not that they are a bad matchup, but they are constantly one on side of blowouts and their rotation is one of the most difficult in the NBA to predict. Their matchup tonight against the Heat looks unappealing on paper, but Orlando comes into the game with an implied total of 102.5 points, which is three points above their season average.

Elfrid Payton has not been seeing nearly enough minutes on a regular basis to be considered in a ten game slate. To make matters worse, C.J. Watson is expected to play tonight, which could send Elf back to his shelf on the bench. Evan Fournier has struggled a bit since the Magic brought in Terrence Ross, which is a bit surprising considering how well he played without Serge Ibaka in the lineup. Fournier is priced all the way down to $5,300 on FanDuel and his minutes are on the rise. I generally don’t like to target wind players against Miami, but Fournier is a borderline elite play at that price point. Ross is coming off of his worst game as a member of the Magic. I’m willing to overlook a single bad outing, especially when you look at his shot volume. He is averaging 14 shots per game in his last three outings. I expected the Ibaka trade to open up minutes for Aaron Gordon, but the Magic seem content to play him 27-28 minutes a night. Unless that changes, Gordon will be a deep GPP flier at best. I mentioned earlier that Nikola Vucevic and Hassan Whiteside have great numbers against each other. Vucevic has scored at least 41 fantasy points in five of his last six games against Whiteside.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Elfrid Payton $5,500 $5,500 0.91 28.9 -2.4 26.4 -3.3 25.3% -0.4% 4 -1.96
Evan Fournier $5,300 $5,600 0.77 33.3 2.7 25.5 -1.4 24.1% -0.3% 5 -0.74
Terrence Ross $4,900 $5,500 0.76 23.0 12.0 17.4 9.0 18.6% -0.6% 5 0.21
Aaron Gordon $5,000 $5,300 0.75 27.5 0.3 20.7 2.1 19.8% 0.1% 12 1.68
Nikola Vucevic $7,200 $7,200 1.14 28.6 1.0 32.5 2.1 25.2% 5.5% 19 2.06

Elite Plays – Nikola Vucevic, Evan Fournier (FD)

Secondary Plays – Evan Fournier (DK), Terrence Ross (FD)

Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Toronto Raptors Washington Wizards
torontonba Vegas Total 207.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 207.0
Vegas Spread 5.0 Vegas Spread -5.0
Team Total 101.0 Team Total 106.0
Pace +/- 0.6 Pace +/- -1.4
Proj. Starter Cory Joseph DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Serge Ibaka Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 5 4 16 30 12 Adj. DvP 7 2 15 16 11
DRPM -0.28 -0.70 1.22 1.94 1.68 DRPM -3.08 -2.49 1.02 0.48 0.31

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors were blown out by the Wizards in their own gym the other night and now have to turn around and face them again in Washington. Like Vegas, I am expecting a much closer game this time around, but this game lacks fantasy appeal as a whole. Both of these defenses are ranked inside the top 15 in points allowed per game and neither team plays at a particularly fast pace. The Raptors have an implied total of only 101 points, which gives them the second worst projected point differential (-7.0) in the slate.

Cory Joseph was everyone’s favorite value play for a few games, but the sites were quick to adjust his salary. I’m completely off of Joseph for now, as it’s going to be hard for him to reach value on a consistent basis at $5,000+. He only averaging 0.72 fantasy points per minute, which is mediocre at best. DeMar DeRozan is playable tonight on DraftKings at $8,900. His usage rate is through the roof with Kyle Lowry off the floor. He is basically the Raptors’ only hope of keeping tonight’s game close. Serge Ibaka has played well since joining the Raptors, but he is nearing $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I like his matchup against the Wizards (ranked 29th in DvP against power forwards), but I prefer Kristaps Porzingis at a similar price point.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Cory Joseph $5,000 $5,200 0.72 23.3 7.9 16.8 2.9 20.1% -3.3% 5 -0.28
DeMar DeRozan $9,900 $8,900 1.12 35.6 -0.5 39.8 -1.4 34.4% 2.3% 4 -0.70
DeMarre Carroll $3,900 $3,900 0.65 27.5 4.3 17.9 -0.9 15.2% -3.4% 16 1.22
Serge Ibaka $6,900 $6,700 0.92 30.9 3.2 28.3 2.4 20.2% -0.6% 30 1.94
Jonas Valanciunas $5,400 $4,500 0.98 26.5 -6.5 25.9 -5.2 19.0% 0.8% 12 1.68

Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan (DK)

Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan (FD), Serge Ibaka

Washington Wizards

The Wizards have been one of the best teams in basketball over the last month of play. They went from being a fringe playoff team to the third best record in the East. They are coming off of a big win against the Raptors in Toronto and now get to face them again at home. Even though I’m a big fan of targeting the Wizards at home, this isn’t an ideal matchup. The Raptors are ranked eighth in points allowed per game and 23rd in pace of play. Washington has an implied total of 106 points, which is nearly two points below their season average.

The issue with the Wizards is that they are all priced correctly. Generally speaking, when we have a ten game slate, we have a number of options that are underpriced available to us. That’s the case again tonight, but none of them happen to play for Washington. John Wall’s price has come down low enough that you can consider him in cash games. He has a high floor and a matchup against Cory Joseph (-3.08 DRPM) is a lot better than a matchup against Kyle Lowry. Outside of Lowry, it gets a little thin. Bradley Beal has played well in his last five games, but is correctly priced on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Otto Porter could be a buy-low candidate on DraftKings at $5,600. I’m not particularly intrigued by Markieff Morris against Serge Ibaka and Marcin Gortat minutes and fantasy production are both trending in the wrong direction.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $9,900 $9,700 1.23 36.7 1.1 45.2 -0.3 34.6% -0.4% 7 -3.08
Bradley Beal $7,400 $7,000 0.93 34.6 2.0 32.1 3.5 26.4% -0.5% 2 -2.49
Otto Porter $6,300 $5,600 0.83 33.8 0.0 28.0 -3.8 14.9% -2.8% 15 1.02
Markieff Morris $6,800 $6,100 0.86 32.0 -1.0 27.4 1.8 20.8% -0.1% 16 0.48
Marcin Gortat $6,300 $5,700 0.85 34.0 -6.0 29.0 -6.5 14.6% 3.8% 11 0.31
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,000 $4,400 0.76 26.8 -0.9 20.4 -0.9 22.4% -1.7% 15 N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall (Cash)

Secondary Plays – John Wall (GPP), Bradley Beal, Otto Porter (DK)

Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks – 8:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers Atlanta Hawks
clevelandnba Vegas Total 214.0 atlantanba Vegas Total 214.0
Vegas Spread -3.0 Vegas Spread 3.0
Team Total 108.5 Team Total 105.5
Pace +/- 0.8 Pace +/- 0.2
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving Iman Shumpert LeBron James Channing Frye Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Kent Bazemore Thabo Sefolosha Paul Millsap Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 17 20 27 6 6 Adj. DvP 24 29 21 2 10
DRPM -2.74 -0.77 2.80 3.59 2.46 DRPM -1.59 0.03 1.18 -1.17 1.64

Cleveland Cavaliers

LeBron James complained about not having enough playmakers around him. While the Cavaliers weren’t able to make any moves before the trade deadline, they did pick up the Mavericks’ slops (no offense to Deron Williams and Andrew Bogut). I’m not sure either player will end up making a big impact, but only time will tell. The Cavaliers are on a fast-track for the one seed in the East, barring a blowup here in the last month of the season. They draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against the Hawks, who are ranked ninth in points allowed per game and fifth in defensive efficiency. Cleveland comes into the game with an implied total of 108.5 points, which is the sixth highest in the slate, but 2.4 points below their season average.

Kyrie Irving let me down in a big way the other night against the Celtics, but he scored over 30 fantasy points while not shooting the ball well and having a combined three rebounds and assists. I’m willing to go back to the well tonight against the Hawks, who have struggled against point guards this season. Irving sees a 4% usage boost with Kevin Love off the floor and his price is at an awfully enticing $8,400 on DraftKings. LeBron James has been a man on a mission, scoring at least 56 fantasy points in two of his last three games. He’s always in play when Love is out, but I have a hard time paying $11,200 for him on DraftKings. If you are using James, get your exposure on FanDuel where he is $400 cheaper. Tristan Thompson and Derrick Williams have both played well recently, but Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard are two of the best low-post defenders in the NBA.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $9,000 $8,400 1.08 35.1 -1.4 37.8 4.6 32.0% 1.6% 17 -2.74
Iman Shumpert $3,500 $3,200 0.58 25.4 -0.6 14.6 -4.3 13.8% -0.7% 20 -0.77
LeBron James $10,800 $11,200 1.28 37.6 -0.9 48.2 1.6 32.8% -2.3% 27 2.80
Channing Frye $4,700 $4,200 0.83 18.8 4.3 15.7 -1.3 19.1% -1.2% 6 3.59
Tristan Thompson $6,100 $5,100 0.78 30.2 3.5 23.6 2.9 11.1% 0.6% 6 2.46
Derrick Williams $4,000 $3,800 0.69 17.5 9.4 12.1 5.3 17.7% -3.0% 6 N/A

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving (DK), LeBron James (FD)

Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (FD), LeBron James (DK)

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have lost five of their last ten games and have dropped down to the fifth seed in the East. If they want to host a first round playoff series, they will need to finish the season strong. Tonight’s game against the Cavaliers should be a good one, as the spread is set at only three points. Cleveland has not been dominant defensively this season, ranking below the league average in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Hawks have an implied total of 105.5 points, which is 2.1 points above their season average.

The Cavaliers often put Iman Shumpert on opposing point guards, but it will be interesting to see if that’s the case tonight. Kent Bazemore would have a big size advantage over Kyrie Irving, so I expect Irving to at least start the game on Dennis Schroder. If that’s the case, I like Schroder’s upside against a team that is ranked 24th in adjusted DvP against point guards. I prefer Derrick Rose over Schroder in a vacuum, but we will get Schroder at much lower ownership in tournaments. This may sound crazy, but Thabo Sefolosha is one of my favorite punt plays tonight. I’m going out on a limb here, but he played 31 minutes in his last game and he’s the Hawks’ best chance of slowing down LeBron James. If you need to save some cap space at small forward, you can do a lot worse than Sefolosha. Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard have both been in bad form in their last five games. Of the two, I prefer Millsap, but he’s far from a core play in this ten game slate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $6,500 $6,200 0.95 30.9 -0.2 29.2 0.3 29.8% -0.2% 24 -1.59
Kent Bazemore $4,400 $4,000 0.76 27.3 -3.3 20.7 -5.3 20.7% 1.5% 29 0.03
Thabo Sefolosha $3,700 $3,600 0.71 25.6 -2.4 18.3 -2.0 13.9% -1.3% 21 1.18
Paul Millsap $7,500 $7,000 1.04 34.0 -2.7 35.3 -7.8 24.7% 1.3% 2 -1.17
Dwight Howard $7,100 $6,500 1.13 29.4 -2.2 33.1 -3.7 18.1% 1.0% 10 1.64
Tim Hardaway $5,200 $4,300 0.77 25.2 1.9 19.5 -2.9 22.5% -1.7% 29 N/A

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Thabo Sefolosha, Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard (DK GPP)

Los Angeles Clippers at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers Milwaukee Bucks
laclippersnba Vegas Total 211.5 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 211.5
Vegas Spread -4.5 Vegas Spread 4.5
Team Total 108.0 Team Total 103.5
Pace +/- -1.2 Pace +/- -0.1
Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Malcolm Brogdon Tony Snell Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Thon Maker
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 3 9 24 27 26 Adj. DvP 9 8 17 10 21
DRPM -0.27 -0.85 -0.33 2.18 0.11 DRPM 3.59 -1.66 2.73 0.95 2.91

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers ruined a lot of lineups on Wednesday, as they fell apart in the second half against the Rockets. They will look to get back on track tonight against the Bucks in Milwaukee. This game features a 4.5-point spread with the over/under set at 211.5 points. The Bucks are ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game, but are ranked 22nd in both defensive efficiency and rebounding differential. The Clippers have an implied total of 108 points, which is identical to their season average.

Chris Paul has played well since returning from injury, averaging 36 minutes and 41 fantasy points per game. His minute upside is intriguing, even though the Bucks have been very tough on point guards this season. Paul isn’t in cash game consideration for me tonight, but I may have 10-15% exposure to him in tournaments. J.J. Redick and Austin Rivers are two intriguing tournament plays. Redick can catch fire at any time and Rivers has quietly scored 20+ fantasy points in eight of his last nine games. Blake Griffin is a little expensive on FanDuel, but I don’t mind going back to him on DraftKings at a price of $9,100. He burned a lot of bridges on Wednesday, which generally leads to lower ownership. We know how exploitable the Bucks’ frontcourt has been this season. DeAndre Jordan is also in play on DraftKings at only $7,000. His minutes have been on the rise over the last five games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Chris Paul $9,600 $9,000 1.30 31.3 5.0 40.8 0.3 28.9% -2.0% 3 -0.27
J.J. Redick $4,300 $4,500 0.70 28.6 2.7 20.1 -1.8 21.0% -4.3% 9 -0.85
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute $3,500 $3,000 0.54 22.4 -2.1 12.1 -2.9 11.0% 0.2% 24 -0.33
Blake Griffin $9,700 $9,100 1.21 33.7 2.2 40.8 0.6 30.3% 0.1% 27 2.18
DeAndre Jordan $7,600 $7,000 1.07 31.5 2.6 33.6 0.8 14.7% -0.3% 26 0.11
Austin Rivers $4,700 $4,200 0.71 28.2 -0.9 19.9 3.5 20.9% 3.0% 3 N/A

Elite Plays – Blake Griffin (DK), DeAndre Jordan (DK)

Secondary Plays – Chris Paul (GPP), Blake Griffin (FD), DeAndre Jordan (FD), Austin Rivers, J.J. Redick

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks tried their best to make a comeback against the Nuggets the other night, but 35 point deficits are hard to overcome. They draw a tougher matchup tonight against the Clippers, who are a top ten defense when healthy. With Blake Griffin and Chris Paul back in the lineup, look for the Clippers to improve their rankings in the defensive statistics listed above. The Bucks come into the game as 4.5-point underdogs with an implied total of only 103.5 points.

At first glance, there were four players on the Bucks that I was interested in. However, I’m not sold on their matchup against the Clippers. Malcolm Brogdon is going to grade out well in everyone’s projections (assuming he starts again), but I don’t target players against Chris Paul. He has the best DRPM of any point guard in the NBA and it’s not even close. Khris Middleton is my favorite play here, as he played 31 minutes and scored 35 fantasy points against the Nuggets on Wednesday. This is obviously a tougher matchup, but Middleton is only $5,300 on FanDuel. Giannis Antetokounmpo will likely have to deal with Luc Richard Mbah a Moute at times and his inconsistency makes him an easy fade in cash games. Greg Monroe continues to be hated by Jason Kidd, but this is a game where they made need him to play 28-30 minutes.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Malcolm Brogdon $5,200 $5,600 0.79 25.7 -0.2 20.2 3.2 20.7% 3.9% 9 3.59
Tony Snell $3,900 $3,400 0.51 28.7 3.0 14.5 -0.1 11.4% -1.5% 8 -1.66
Khris Middleton $5,300 $6,000 0.93 23.2 3.9 21.6 4.2 24.1% 0.3% 17 2.73
Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,800 $10,000 1.29 35.5 1.8 45.8 -1.2 29.3% -0.1% 10 0.95
Thon Maker $3,500 $3,000 0.86 7.7 3.7 6.6 0.6 17.7% -4.7% 21 2.91
Greg Monroe $6,400 $5,700 1.14 22.0 4.1 25.1 3.5 23.6% 0.2% 21 N/A

Elite Plays – Khris Middleton (FD)

Secondary Plays – Khris Middleton (DK), Giannis Antetokounmpo (GPP), Greg Monroe (GPP)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious