NBA Grind Down: Monday, January 22nd
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Sacramento Kings at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET
| Sacramento Kings | Charlotte Hornets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210.0 |  | Vegas Total | 210.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 10.0 | Vegas Spread | -10.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.0 | Implied Team Total | 110.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | De’Aaron Fox | Justin Jackson | Bogdan Bogdanovic | Skal Labissiere | Willie Cauley-Stein | Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 19 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 6 | DvP | 8 | 20 | 24 | 25 | 28 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 12 | 7 | 7 | 19 | 5 | DRPM Rat. | 29 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 23 | |
Sacramento Kings
Notable Injuries
None
Hello Grinders. We have a large nine-game slate this Monday. It’s worth noting that the sites all have various starts times, with some including the early games and some excluding them to push back the lock time. We’ll cover all nine games in the Grind Down, but just be aware you’ll have some extra time to finish making your rosters depending on the site you play on.
I’m covering for Notorious today because it’s his birthday! The folks at RotoGrinders decided to give Derek a surprise day off so he can spend time with his friends and family. While I’m sure you all miss Derek’s writing for the Grind Down, he gets a much-deserved break and will be back tomorrow. Happy Birthday, Notorious! Let’s dive into today’s slate.
We kick things off with the Sacramento Kings at the Charlotte Hornets. This game is not on the FanDuel or FantasyDraft main slate, but is on DraftKings’. Since Coach Dave Joerger announced that the Kings will rest two veterans every game the rest of the way, projecting their minutes and starters have been a headache. From a DFS perspective, I no longer have any desire to roster their older players, which includes Vince Carter, George Hill, Kosta Koufos and Zach Randolph.
There are several secondary plays on this team if you decide you need to save salary or want to play the ownership angle in tournaments given most DFS players won’t be targeting the Kings. De’Aaron Fox draws an exploitable matchup against Kemba Walker and has played 29 or more minutes in eight of his last 10 games. Over his last 10 games, Bogdan Bogdanovic has averaged 30.4 minutes per game and 27 DraftKings points. The main player on the Kings who I have interest in is Willie Cauley-Stein. There’s some risk here in a difficult matchup against Dwight Howard, but the Kings have finally unleashed him. Since Joerger’s policy about resting starters has gone into effect, Cauley-Stein has averaged 34.7 minutes per game and 33.6 DraftKings points. His price remains affordable and the Kings are going to need his size to match up against Howard, especially if Zach Randolph happens to be one of the veterans resting on Monday.
Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Per Game: 97.7 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.0 (14 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 2.3 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.8 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.7 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De’Aaron Fox | $5,100 | 21.3 | 3.3 | 26.8 | 5.2 | 0.79 | 21.1% | 21 | 19 | 12 | ||
| Justin Jackson | $3,200 | 9.2 | -1.3 | 17.1 | -1.6 | 0.54 | 14.0% | 9 | 2 | 7 | ||
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | $5,500 | 20.8 | 6.6 | 26.6 | 4.3 | 0.78 | 17.7% | 20 | 29 | 7 | ||
| Skal Labissiere | $4,300 | 16.4 | 5.8 | 17.5 | 7.3 | 0.94 | 18.9% | 25 | 15 | 19 | ||
| Willie Cauley-Stein | $6,600 | 27.5 | 6.4 | 26.8 | 5.0 | 1.03 | 19.3% | 6 | 6 | 5 | ||
| George Hill | $4,500 | 20.4 | 7.4 | 27.3 | 1.6 | 0.75 | 16.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
| Kosta Koufos | $3,800 | 16.7 | 0.7 | 18.5 | 2.3 | 0.90 | 13.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Bogdan Bogdanovic, Willie Cauley-Stein, De’Aaron Fox
Charlotte Hornets
Notable Injuries
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Out)
Update 5:22pm EST – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has been ruled out and Treveon Graham will start.
The Hornets are implied to score the second most points on this slate and nearly 4.5 points more than their season average. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist popped up on the injury report with a left foot sprain. He played 28 minutes on Saturday and is on track to play, but monitor the news in case he suffers a setback on Monday morning. That would open up some value for us.
I love targeting centers against the Sacramento Kings as that’s their biggest weakness, but DraftKings seems to know about this as they’ve priced up Dwight Howard to $8,100, which is his second highest price tag this season. The Kings rank 28th in DvP against centers so the matchup is certainly elite. With this slate being so large and several stars you want to pay up for, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Dwight go lower-owned in a plus-matchup than he normally would.
The other stud on the Hornets I don’t mind on this slate is Kemba Walker. Walker dropped 37.9 DraftKings points on the Kings earlier this season and I don’t hate him again in this spot. He’s been extremely consistent this season and has scored at least 19 real life points in seven straight games.
Outside of Dwight and Kemba, it’s hard to predict who else on this team will step up. Nicolas Batum is coming off a dominant 43.25 DraftKings point performance but that was his season high. It’s tempting to chase it but he’s been too inconsistent this season for me, making him more of a secondary play on this slate in case something has finally clicked for him. If you absolutely need a punt YOLO play, I don’t hate Marvin Williams. The Kings rank 25th in DvP against power forwards and Williams is dirt cheap, but he also has a tendency to just disappear as evidenced by the fact he’s had 0 real life points in three of his last 10 games. That’s not very good.
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 105.6 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.0 (2 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 4.4 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.2 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.4 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.1 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | $7,700 | 36.9 | -2.6 | 34.6 | -0.3 | 1.07 | 26.8% | 13 | 8 | 29 | ||
| Nicolas Batum | $5,900 | 24.8 | 3.6 | 31.1 | 1.4 | 0.80 | 17.9% | 20 | 20 | 25 | ||
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $4,300 | 21.6 | 0.1 | 26.5 | 1.4 | 0.82 | 15.8% | 20 | 24 | 26 | ||
| Marvin Williams | $4,100 | 19.1 | 3.9 | 25.9 | 0.6 | 0.74 | 12.7% | 24 | 25 | 26 | ||
| Dwight Howard | $8,100 | 36.2 | 7.9 | 30.4 | 3.0 | 1.19 | 19.4% | 29 | 28 | 23 | ||
| Frank Kaminsky | $4,200 | 19.4 | 0.1 | 23.1 | -1.3 | 0.84 | 19.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
| Jeremy Lamb | $4,900 | 25.5 | -4.3 | 25.6 | -5.7 | 1.00 | 21.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dwight Howard, Kemba Walker
Secondary Plays – Nicolas Batum (GPP), Marvin Williams (GPP)
Utah Jazz at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET
| Utah Jazz | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.0 |  | Vegas Total | 205.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -2.5 | Vegas Spread | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.8 | Implied Team Total | 101.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ricky Rubio | Donovan Mitchell | Joe Ingles | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Ersan Ilyasova | Miles Plumlee | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 18 | 17 | 30 | 21 | 27 | DvP | 21 | 1 | 19 | 11 | 3 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 30 | 2 | 20 | 23 | 10 | DRPM Rat. | 9 | 17 | 11 | 9 | 4 | |
Utah Jazz
Notable Injuries
Rodney Hood (Out)
The Utah Jazz draw a fantastic matchup against the Atlanta Hawks, who are 26th in defensive efficiency and are allowing 107.8 points per game to opponents, 8th most in the NBA. Rudy Gobert returned on Friday from his knee injury and proceeded to play in both games of Utah’s back-to-back set. Most importantly, he played 30 and 28 minutes in those two games, which is right around his season average. He appears to have no restrictions and now gets to face a Hawks defense that ranks 27th in DvP against centers. Gobert is one of my favorite center options on today’s slate given the depressed price and prime matchup.
Updated 11:45am EST with the news Hood is out
Rodney Hood is out and missed Saturday’s game, which shifted Joe Ingles back into the starting lineup. Ingles proceeded to shred the Clippers with a season-high 21 points. Ingles has sneaky upside against the Hawks, who rank 30th in DvP against small forwards.
Donovan Mitchell continues to feast on NBA defenses and is averaging 23.8 points per game this month (that would’ve ranked 14th in the NBA if he did this all season). He’s an elite play on this slate.
The two other players I have interest in on this slate are Ricky Rubio and Derrick Favors. I like playing point guards against Dennis Schroder defense and Rubio has strung together three straight solid performances. Favors is more attractive on DraftKings ($5,600) than FanDuel ($6,000) given the price difference. While I’m a bit worried that Gobert’s return will impact Favors’ production, the last game showed us the two can co-exist where Favors posted a line of 14 points, 12 rebounds and 3 assists. The Hawks struggle against power forwards and Favor’s price saw a decent drop on DraftKings, so I don’t mind him on that site.
Utah Jazz Offense
Points Per Game: 101.8 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.8 (11 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 2.0 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.8 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.9 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.8 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Rubio | $5,400 | $5,200 | 25.6 | -0.8 | 29.1 | -0.4 | 0.88 | 20.4% | 22 | 18 | 30 | |
| Donovan Mitchell | $8,000 | $7,800 | 31.6 | 7.6 | 31.7 | 3.5 | 1.00 | 25.2% | 11 | 17 | 2 | |
| Joe Ingles | $5,300 | $5,100 | 23.0 | -1.0 | 30.6 | -1.2 | 0.75 | 14.5% | 30 | 30 | 20 | |
| Derrick Favors | $6,000 | $5,600 | 27.0 | 1.5 | 28.3 | 1.4 | 0.95 | 16.5% | 8 | 21 | 23 | |
| Rudy Gobert | $7,600 | $7,000 | 32.5 | 7.9 | 29.8 | -0.9 | 1.09 | 14.4% | 25 | 27 | 10 | |
| Rodney Hood | $5,200 | $5,300 | 24.0 | 2.1 | 28.2 | -1.3 | 0.85 | 24.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell
Secondary Plays – Derrick Favors (DK), Joe Ingles, Ricky Rubio
Atlanta Hawks
Notable Injuries
None
I have a general policy not to roster players against the Utah Jazz and their fantastic defense. They rank in the bottom-five in pace and allow just 102.5 points per game, 7th fewest in the NBA. Additionally, the Jazz just got Rudy Gobert back to anchor their defense and Vegas has them implied for 2.3 fewer points than their season average.
But here’s the dilemma I’m facing, and it’s site specific. On FanDuel, the Hawks are all priced extremely high and are not in play for me. On DraftKings, you could make an argument some of these guys warrant GPP exposure given how cheap they are. Dewayne Dedmon has been coming off the bench since his return from injury and is only $4,800, but draws a brutal matchup against Rudy Gobert. Kent Bazemore has flashed occasional upside all season and is just $5,500 but the Jazz rank 1st in DvP against opposing shooting guards. Dennis Schroder leads this team with a 30% usage rate and his price hasn’t been adjusted down for this matchup, making him an interesting tournament flyer. And even though Rudy Gobert has returned, the Jazz still allowed 117 points to the Knicks on Friday’s loss and then 113 points to the Clippers on Saturday. To summarize, I’m not saying you need exposure to the Hawks and it’s fine if you want to cross this team off you list of targets, but the pricing on DraftKings caught my attention.
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.6 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.3 (13 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -2.3 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Utah Jazz
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.5 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.4 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.7 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.1 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $8,000 | $7,400 | 35.0 | 6.2 | 32.0 | 0.5 | 1.09 | 29.4% | 15 | 21 | 9 | |
| Kent Bazemore | $6,000 | $5,500 | 28.3 | -2.7 | 28.4 | 0.5 | 1.00 | 19.7% | 18 | 1 | 17 | |
| Taurean Prince | $5,300 | $4,700 | 24.6 | -11.3 | 30.8 | -2.2 | 0.80 | 16.6% | 12 | 19 | 11 | |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $5,200 | $4,800 | 22.8 | -3.2 | 26.0 | 1.6 | 0.88 | 16.7% | 18 | 11 | 9 | |
| Miles Plumlee | $3,500 | $3,400 | 12.3 | -0.2 | 18.1 | -1.9 | 0.68 | 9.6% | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| John Collins | $6,200 | $4,700 | 24.6 | -2.1 | 22.2 | -1.4 | 1.11 | 16.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | $5,400 | $4,800 | 24.3 | 2.2 | 23.7 | -1.7 | 1.03 | 15.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder (DK GPP), Kent Bazemore (GPP)
Phoenix Suns at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET
| Phoenix Suns | Milwaukee Bucks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.5 |  | Vegas Total | 213.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.0 | Vegas Spread | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.8 | Implied Team Total | 108.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.7 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tyler Ulis | Devin Booker | T.J. Warren | Dragan Bender | Tyson Chandler | Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Sterling Brown | Khris Middleton | Tony Snell | John Henson | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 14 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 26 | DvP | 29 | 30 | 16 | 29 | 15 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 10 | 3 | 27 | 27 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 28 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 7 | |
Phoenix Suns
Notable Injuries
Marquese Chriss (Out)
Update 6:11pm EST – Greg Monroe is starting and Tyson Chandler is unlikely to play. Updating article for this news.
This game oozes with fantasy goodness. Marquese Chriss has been ruled out for this game, meaning Dragan Bender will draw another start. After two dominant performances against the Thunder and Rockets, Bender has failed to score more than 6 real life points in any of his last three games despite averaging 30.3 minutes per game. The Bucks rank 9th in DvP against power forwards but will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo to anchor their defense, so it’s a bit misleading. Bender is nothing more than a deep GPP dart throw as long as he’s getting 30 minutes and dirt cheap.
The main beneficiaries of Chriss’ absence have been Devin Booker and T.J. Warren. Booker’s price continues to rise but he’s had a 33.9% usage rate in the past four games that Chriss has missed. Malcolm Brogdon is expected back on Monday after missing Saturday’s game due to personal reasons, but that’s not enough to take me off playing Booker. T.J. Warren also deserves consideration on this slate. He returned from a back injury that cost him two games and he proceeded to play 34 minutes in his return. His price is reasonable across all sites but he has a difficult matchup against Khris Middleton defense. The Bucks own the 2nd ranked DvP against small forwards so I much prefer Booker over Warren despite the price gap if deciding between the two. I’m going to place Warren as an elite play because I expect a lot of minutes and usage from him, but the matchup does have me a little worried and I consider him a border-line secondary play.
Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Per Game: 105.5 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (9 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -0.8 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.1 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.6 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.2 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Ulis | $4,300 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 17.8 | 3.6 | 24.0 | 2.9 | 0.74 | 17.6% | 9 | 14 | 10 |
| Devin Booker | $8,500 | $8,900 | $15,700 | 37.6 | 6.1 | 34.4 | 0.9 | 1.09 | 28.3% | 12 | 8 | 3 |
| T.J. Warren | $7,000 | $6,800 | $12,500 | 31.9 | 0.7 | 32.2 | 1.8 | 0.99 | 23.4% | 11 | 2 | 27 |
| Dragan Bender | $4,500 | $4,800 | $9,300 | 13.0 | 9.6 | 22.3 | 10.4 | 0.58 | 11.0% | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| Tyson Chandler | $4,800 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 21.7 | 0.9 | 25.7 | 0.1 | 0.84 | 9.0% | 30 | 26 | 1 |
| Isaiah Canaan | $3,700 | $4,000 | $7,800 | 20.2 | 0.0 | 21.8 | 1.4 | 0.93 | 20.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Devin Booker, Greg Monroe, T.J. Warren
Secondary Plays –
Milwaukee Bucks
Notable Injuries
Giannis Antetokounpo (Out), Malcolm Brogdon (Will Play)
Update 2:17pm EST – Malcolm Brogdon will play on Monday.
Per CourtIQ, when Giannis Antetokounmpo is off the court, Khris Middleton leads the team with a 35% usage rate while Eric Bledsoe is second on the team with a 30.9% usage rate. Both make for fantastic plays against a Suns team that’s 4th in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency. Khris Middleton went ham on Saturday, posting a triple-double with Giannis and Malcolm Brogdon out. Brogdon has been confirmed back with the team.
We can’t forget this is a #revengegame for Eric Bledsoe. I’m not sure if the vengeance has worn off, but this is the second time this season Bledsoe is playing the Suns since his trade. In that first game, Giannis was also out and Middleton led the team with 40 points and 9 rebounds while Bledsoe had 30 points and 7 assists. The Suns continue to bleed fantasy points to opposing guards and currently have the 29th ranked DvP against that position, making Bledsoe a strong play on Monday despite his rising salary.
We saw Tony Snell play 38 minutes on Saturday but assuming Malcolm Brogdon is back with the team, I’d expect Snell’s role to diminish and Brogdon to serve as the team’s third option on offense. He remains affordable on DraftKings and may go overlooked given he still has an injury designation at the time of this writing.
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.7 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (4 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 4.1 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns
Points Allowed Per Game: 112.2 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.4 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.3 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $8,300 | $8,200 | $14,600 | 33.5 | -1.8 | 31.4 | 2.5 | 1.07 | 24.3% | 30 | 29 | 28 |
| Sterling Brown | $3,500 | $3,700 | $7,300 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 10.7 | 8.1 | 0.72 | 13.0% | 19 | 30 | 28 |
| Khris Middleton | $8,600 | $8,700 | $14,900 | 34.7 | 1.4 | 37.2 | 1.1 | 0.93 | 22.2% | 19 | 16 | 28 |
| Tony Snell | $4,300 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 15.3 | -0.8 | 29.2 | -5.2 | 0.52 | 10.1% | 30 | 29 | 29 |
| John Henson | $5,600 | $4,800 | $9,300 | 23.3 | -1.8 | 24.8 | 2.8 | 0.94 | 12.8% | 14 | 15 | 7 |
Elite Plays – Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton
Secondary Plays – Malcolm Brogdon (DK)
Philadelphia 76ers at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM ET
| Philadelphia 76ers | Memphis Grizzlies | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.5 |  | Vegas Total | 207.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -3.0 | Vegas Spread | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.3 | Implied Team Total | 102.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -3.5 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Joel Embiid | Projected Starters | Tyreke Evans | Andrew Harrison | Dillon Brooks | Jarell Martin | Marc Gasol | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 9 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 1 | DvP | 11 | 25 | 17 | 17 | 22 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 11 | 12 | 16 | 13 | 16 | DRPM Rat. | 1 | 20 | 1 | 26 | 2 | |
Philadelphia 76ers
Notable Injuries
Jerryd Bayless (Out); J.J. Redick (Out)
Update 2:16pm EST – Jerryd Bayless has been ruled out.
On paper, this 76ers-Grizzlies game looks ugly. The 76ers are ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency, while the Grizzlies rank dead last in pace of play. Yet attacking the value in this game may be one of the keys to this slate.
Jerryd Bayless missed Saturday’s game with a sore left wrist, which is pretty significant news for him given that’s the wrist he’s had surgery on. Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot drew the start and played well over 30 minutes. If he draws another start, he’s fine as a punt play given his low price.
J.J. Redick’s injury has opened up more opportunities for T.J. McConnell in the second unit. As long as Redick remains out and his price is reasonable, McConnell will continue being a GPP option given the upside he possesses when given significant minutes.
Robert Covington finally broke out like my acne on Saturday. He’s been having a mediocre month on January and would benefit if Bayless is out again. Given how inconsistent he’s been, he remains a tournament-only option for me. Dario Saric is also a tournament play. I prefer to roll him out only when Joel Embiid is out but he’s been extremely reliable lately.
The two plays on the 76ers that intrigue me the most are Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. Simmons has been shooting the ball well but we aren’t getting a price discount for this matchup. His upside has been limited lately and I’ve been personally staying away from him. I prefer to use him in GPPs on this slate. As for Joel Embiid, he’s proven that he’s matchup proof and Monday will be a big test to that theory when he goes up against Marc Gasol. The Grizzlies rank 1st in DvP against centers, and that’s a testament to how elite Gasol’s defense is.
Personally, I see several secondary plays on this team. There’s nobody on the 76ers I think are must-haves on this large slate against a slow, defensive-minded Grizzlies team.
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.3 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.3 (8 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -3.1 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.1 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.9 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.0 (30 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $8,100 | $7,900 | $14,300 | 41.4 | -8.8 | 35.0 | -6.3 | 1.18 | 23.1% | 14 | 9 | 11 |
| Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot | $3,800 | $3,400 | $6,700 | 9.9 | 0.5 | 15.7 | -2.1 | 0.63 | 16.0% | 12 | 18 | 12 |
| Robert Covington | $6,200 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 28.9 | -8.8 | 32.4 | -0.6 | 0.89 | 15.1% | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| Dario Saric | $6,100 | $6,300 | $12,400 | 27.1 | 0.1 | 30.6 | 0.1 | 0.89 | 17.7% | 21 | 14 | 13 |
| Joel Embiid | $10,400 | $9,800 | $18,600 | 45.5 | 0.0 | 31.5 | -0.1 | 1.44 | 27.6% | 2 | 1 | 16 |
| T.J. McConnell | $5,400 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 22.3 | 8.1 | 25.0 | 4.2 | 0.89 | 15.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Robert Covington (GPP), Joel Embiid, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (If he starts), T.J. McConnell, Dario Saric, Ben Simmons
Memphis Grizzlies
Notable Injuries
Dillon Brooks (Questionable), Mario Chalmers (Questionable), James Ennis (Out), JaMychal Green (Out), Andrew Harrison (Probable), Jarell Martin (Questionable), Chandler Parsons (Out)
You may need a moment to go through the Grizzlies’ injury report. Go on, take a sip of your coffee and then try and digest that information.
With a slew of injuries, figuring out the Grizzlies will be important. Seven players are on the Grizzlies’ injury report, while Brandan Wright has been removed from it now that he’s recovered from his illness. As previously noted, the 76ers rank 3rd in defensive efficiency so while we may target the Grizzlies for value, it’s not a cupcake matchup.
The offense revolves around Marc Gasol and Tyreke Evans. However, it’s fair to question if Evans is wearing down or just in a mini-slump. Over his last eight games, Evans is shooting 53-for-141 (37.6%) from the field. Keep in mind he hasn’t seen this kind of workload since the 2015-16 season, and he’s played a combined 80 games over the past three season due to all the injuries he’s had. Given his woeful shooting and this brutal matchup, he’s more of a secondary play for me. If I’m playing one of these two, I would rather take the slight discount and go with Gasol. He’ll be needed to defend Embiid, especially with the Grizzlies short-handed for this game.
With Mario Chalmers and Andrew Harrison missing Saturday’s game, Ben McLemore started at point guard but underwhelmed in 22 minutes of play. Harrison is expected back and Chalmers is questionable, so that removes any interest I have in McLemore. The lack of back court depth allowed Wayne Selden to come off the bench and score a career-high 31 points in just 27 minutes. Keep in mind he did it against an awful Pelicans defense. I don’t think we chase it but if Chalmers is ruled out and/or Dillon Brooks is ruled out, that may open up minutes again for Selden, making him interesting in tournaments. Monitor the Grizzlies’ news on their statuses.
With JaMychal Green ruled out, Jarell Martin would likely draw the start, but he’s listed as questionable with a hand injury. I don’t mind him as a punt play should he start. If he’s also ruled out, the Grizzlies will be extremely thin and have to rely on Deyonta Davis and Brandan Wright. I prefer Davis between the two.
Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 99.5 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.3 (12 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 2.8 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.6 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.0 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.1 (2 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreke Evans | $8,000 | $8,400 | $15,900 | 34.8 | -2.0 | 31.1 | 1.7 | 1.12 | 27.5% | 5 | 11 | 1 |
| Andrew Harrison | $4,700 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 16.1 | 2.7 | 21.1 | 4.2 | 0.76 | 17.8% | 23 | 25 | 20 |
| Dillon Brooks | $4,000 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 15.8 | 8.2 | 27.4 | 3.0 | 0.58 | 12.8% | 10 | 17 | 1 |
| Jarell Martin | $4,000 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 13.4 | 3.6 | 18.5 | 6.9 | 0.73 | 13.6% | 13 | 17 | 26 |
| Marc Gasol | $7,900 | $7,600 | $13,900 | 38.0 | -5.7 | 34.4 | -1.5 | 1.10 | 23.5% | 8 | 22 | 2 |
| Mario Chalmers | $3,900 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 17.7 | 0.8 | 22.5 | -1.9 | 0.79 | 17.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Marc Gasol
Secondary Plays – Deyonta Davis (If Jarell Martin is out), Tyreke Evans, Jarell Martin (If he starts), Wayne Selden (GPP if Andrew Harrison and/or Dillon Brooks are out)
Chicago Bulls at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET
| Chicago Bulls | New Orleans Pelicans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 225.5 |  | Vegas Total | 225.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.5 | Vegas Spread | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 109.5 | Implied Team Total | 116.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.0 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jerian Grant | Zach LaVine | Justin Holiday | Lauri Markkanen | Robin Lopez | Projected Starters | Rajon Rondo | Jrue Holiday | E’Twaun Moore | Anthony Davis | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 17 | 26 | 23 | 28 | 9 | DvP | 27 | 28 | 14 | 18 | 11 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 27 | 5 | 29 | 2 | 6 | DRPM Rat. | 24 | 17 | 10 | 26 | 23 | |
Chicago Bulls
Notable Injuries
Kris Dunn (Out)
With Kris Dunn out with a concussion, Jerian Grant should continue seeing starts at point guard for the Bulls. Grant is fully in-play on Monday’s slate as a punt play but it’s worth noting that even though Grant will likely start, his averages as a starter aren’t mind-blowing. Here are his splits as a starter over 16 games:
27.1 minutes per game / 8.1 points / 6.1 assists / 3.8 rebounds / 0.9 steals
Grant drew the start on Saturday and put up a line nearly identical to this, playing 26 minutes and finishing with 8/6/6/1. My point is that I think Grant is a fine play on this slate as a salary-saver against a poor defense, but he’s not a must-have.
Zach LaVine was cleared to play 24 minutes for Saturday’s game but only played 19, so it seems like the Bulls will continue treating him with caution as he returns from his ACL tear. Outside of his game against the Heat, he hasn’t posted fantasy scores that would warrant us rostering him at all costs. I would avoid him for cash games until his minutes ramp up and he’s nothing more than a GPP dart throw for now. I’d much rather target Justin Holiday against the Pelicans. Holiday hasn’t been hurt by LaVine’s return yet and has averaged 33.25 minutes per game the past four games, just a shade under his season average. The Pelicans rank in the bottom-third of the league against defending small forwards so Holiday has sneaky upside in this matchup.
Lauri Markkanen will have his hands full guarding Anthony Davis but has scored in double-figures in 13 straight games and leads the Bulls in rebounds per game (7.5) and is second on the team in points per game (15.5). I love picking on the Pelicans and Markkanen is a fine play on this slate. The Pelicans are allowing 110.5 points per game to opponents this season, the second most in the NBA, and power forwards have been a weakness for this Pelicans’ defense. In tournaments, I don’t even mind the idea of attacking them with Nikola Mirotic. Mirotic continues to come off the bench but leads the Bulls in scoring.
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 103.2 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (3 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 6.3 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.5 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.5 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerian Grant | $5,600 | $4,900 | $9,700 | 18.7 | -6.5 | 21.3 | -6.1 | 0.88 | 19.6% | 18 | 17 | 27 |
| Zach LaVine | $4,600 | $5,400 | $10,500 | 21.3 | 0.0 | 19.4 | 0.0 | 1.10 | 27.0% | 29 | 26 | 5 |
| Justin Holiday | $5,500 | $5,900 | $11,300 | 26.4 | -0.1 | 34.2 | 1.4 | 0.77 | 16.7% | 16 | 23 | 29 |
| Lauri Markkanen | $6,300 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 28.6 | 7.1 | 30.1 | 2.4 | 0.95 | 19.8% | 25 | 28 | 2 |
| Robin Lopez | $4,400 | $4,600 | $8,900 | 23.2 | 0.3 | 28.2 | 0.0 | 0.82 | 18.1% | 22 | 9 | 6 |
| Bobby Portis | $4,200 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 22.8 | -4.6 | 20.4 | -2.2 | 1.12 | 22.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Nikola Mirotic | $6,500 | $6,600 | $12,300 | 29.9 | 1.9 | 24.7 | -1.3 | 1.21 | 23.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Denzel Valentine | $4,900 | $5,200 | $9,800 | 22.1 | 1.2 | 28.3 | -2.2 | 0.78 | 15.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jerian Grant, Lauri Markkanen
Secondary Plays – Justin Holiday, Zach LaVine (GPP), Nikola Mirotic (GPP)
New Orleans Pelicans
Notable Injuries
None
As much as I love stacking against the Pelicans, the same could be said for the Bulls. They rank 24th in defensive efficiency and rank near the bottom of the league in DvP for every position with the exception of small forward and center. The Pelicans are implied to score the most points on this slate, making all of their starters interesting.
This is a Rajon Rondo #revengegame and the Bulls have been awful against opposing point guards, but there are other guards on this slate I’d rather pursue. One of them is Jrue Holiday, who has been on fire, scoring at least 20 real life points in five straight games. He’ll probably go somewhat overlooked on a slate featuring James Harden, Khris Middleton, Devin Booker and Donovan Mitchell in fantastic matchups, making him a great pivot in tournaments.
Both DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis are in fantastic spots on Monday. With their prices so close and this game having a massive total, it makes sense to try and play one of them in your cash game lineups. Based on the DvP metrics, I give a slight lean to Davis over Cousins, but I wouldn’t call you crazy if you went Cousins. I feel like Cousins has a higher floor but Davis has the higher ceiling, and I’m generally the type of person who would rather take a chance on that ceiling game when it’s close.
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 110.8 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 116.0 (1 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 5.2 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.3 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.5 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.9 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajon Rondo | $5,200 | $5,200 | $9,800 | 24.0 | -6.6 | 25.1 | -1.1 | 0.96 | 16.6% | 27 | 27 | 24 |
| Jrue Holiday | $8,300 | $7,200 | $13,400 | 35.3 | 11.9 | 36.9 | 2.5 | 0.96 | 20.4% | 28 | 28 | 17 |
| E’Twaun Moore | $5,000 | $4,500 | $8,700 | 21.4 | -4.2 | 32.3 | 0.2 | 0.66 | 14.5% | 26 | 14 | 10 |
| Anthony Davis | $11,500 | $10,800 | $19,900 | 50.4 | 7.0 | 36.1 | 6.2 | 1.40 | 24.1% | 21 | 18 | 26 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | $11,500 | $10,900 | $19,600 | 52.6 | 1.8 | 36.1 | 3.5 | 1.46 | 26.8% | 16 | 11 | 23 |