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NBA Grind Down: Monday, January 4th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-01-06 16:07:21

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Minnesota Timberwolves at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM

Minnesota Timberwolves Philadelphia 76ers
minnesotanba Vegas Total 204.5 philadelphianba Vegas Total 204.5
Vegas Sprd -6.0 Vegas Sprd 6.0
Team Proj. 105.3 Team Proj. 99.3
Team Pace 97.90 Team Pace 100.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Andrew Wiggins Tayshaun Prince Kevin Garnett Karl-Anthony Towns Proj. Starter Ishmael Smith Isaiah Canaan Jakarr Sampson Jerami Grant Nerlens Noel
Last 3 Weeks 21 16 30 29 29 Last 3 Weeks 19 18 12 7 20
Opp. Last 7 23 28 29 26 29 Opp. Last 7 12 19 24 7 23

Minnesota Timberwolves

Record: 12-22 — Road: 7-9 — Last 10: 3-7

The Wolves have lost seven of their last ten games and are now 12-22 on the season. Tonight they head to Philadelphia to take on the Sixers in what should be a competitive battle between two bad teams. The Sixers are 6-point underdogs tonight with an implied team total of 105.3 points.

The Sixers have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season. They are ranked 21st or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. With such a favorable matchup, we can give the Wolves a sizable boost as a whole.

Elite Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns

FD — $7,800 — C
DK — $7,300 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.7 | Last Five Games: 20.6
Min/Game — Season: 29.0 | Last Five Games: 32.8
FP/Game — Season: 32.1 | Last Five Games: 34.8

Ricky Rubio

FD — $7,700 — PG
DK — $7,100 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.0 | Last Five Games: 16.7
Min/Game — Season: 30.7 | Last Five Games: 34.0
FP/Game — Season: 31.5 | Last Five Games: 36.8

Secondary Plays

Andrew Wiggins

FD — $6,700 — SF
DK — $6,400 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.6 | Last Five Games: 22.8
Min/Game — Season: 35.1 | Last Five Games: 37.1
FP/Game — Season: 28.2 | Last Five Games: 29.4

Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 3-33 — Home: 1-12 — Last 10: 2-8

The Sixers have lost eight of their last ten games and are only 3-33 on the season. They have a decent shot of picking up their fourth win tonight though, as they take on the Wolves at home. The Sixers have an implied team total of 99.3 points. That may not seem high, but it is actually 6.8 points higher than their average points per game this season.

The Wolves not performed well defensively this season. They are ranked 20th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Sixers see a nice boost tonight at home, especially considering the fact that they are only 6-point underdogs.

Elite Plays

Nerlens Noel

Noel has been terrific over his last five games, averaging 35.9 fantasy points. He continues to excel with both Ish Smith at point guard and Jahlil Okafor coming off the bench. The best part is that he has only averaged 27.6 minutes during that stretch. He should see 32-34 minutes if tonight’s game stays close.

FD — $6,300 — PF
DK — $6,700 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.6 | Last Five Games: 16.9
Min/Game — Season: 29.2 | Last Five Games: 27.6
FP/Game — Season: 25.4 | Last Five Games: 35.9

Ishmael Smith

Smith may be a bit overpriced on DraftKings, but he is still an elite play tonight on FanDuel. At $5,700, he needs roughly 28 fantasy points to reach value. Coincidentally, he has averaged 28.5 fantasy points in his last five games. Smith has had a couple of down outings in his last two games, but I’m back on the Ish train tonight.

FD — $5,700 — PG
DK — $6,900 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.4 | Last Five Games: 26.5
Min/Game — Season: 23.8 | Last Five Games: 28.9
FP/Game — Season: 23.1 | Last Five Games: 28.5

Secondary Plays

Jerami Grant

Grant is worth a look, assuming that he stays in the starting lineup. In 25 starts this season, he has averaged 9.7 points, 5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.9 blocks. He draws a favorable matchup against the Wolves and is a decent plug and play if you are having a tough time finding value.

FD — $4,300 — PF
DK — $4,700 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.3 | Last Five Games: 11.9
Min/Game — Season: 26.1 | Last Five Games: 24.7
FP/Game — Season: 20.0 | Last Five Games: 18.7

Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM

Toronto Raptors Cleveland Cavaliers
torontonba Vegas Total 192.5 clevelandnba Vegas Total 192.5
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 92.3 Team Proj. 100.3
Team Pace 95.90 Team Pace 95.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Last 3 Weeks 11 13 3 3 2 Last 3 Weeks 2 21 5 15 15
Opp. Last 7 8 10 6 14 3 Opp. Last 7 11 15 7 19 21

Toronto Raptors

Record: 21-14 — Road: 10-8 — Last 10: 5-5

The Raptors have lost five of their last ten games, but they are 21-14 on the season. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Cavaliers, who are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. The Raptors are only projected to score 92.3 points, which is the second lowest team total on the board.

The Cavaliers’ defense continues to climb up the rankings. They are now ranked fourth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. With such a low team total, the Raptors are secondary options at best tonight. On a short slate, DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry would be worth a look, but I will be avoiding both tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 22-9 — Home: 14-1 — Last 10: 8-2

The Cavaliers have won eight of their last ten games and they have an impressive 14-1 record at home. The Cavaliers are listed as 8-point favorites tonight in a game that features a low total of 192.5 points. This game should be a fun one to watch, but it is devoid of fantasy options.

The Raptors have played well defensively this season. They play at a slow pace and they are ranked fourth in points allowed per game and fifth in fantasy points allowed per game. The Cavaliers have a respectable team total, but there aren’t any must plays in this lineup. With Kyrie Irving back, there are less shots to go around.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

LeBron James

James has been coasting a bit recently, averaging only 36.8 fantasy points in 32.8 minutes over his last five games. His price has come down across the industry though and he typically plays up to his competition. If the Raptors can keep tonight’s game close, James will have a good shot of paying off his salary.

FD — $9,800 — SF
DK — $9,500 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 28.7 | Last Five Games: 28.3
Min/Game — Season: 35.8 | Last Five Games: 32.8
FP/Game — Season: 44.3 | Last Five Games: 36.8

Tristan Thompson

Thompson is really the only Cavaliers’ target that I am considering tonight for cash games. He has averaged 0.78 fantasy points per minute this season and he should see close to 35 minutes tonight against the Raptors.

FD — $4,600 — PF
DK — $5,200 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 10.2 | Last Five Games: 9.7
Min/Game — Season: 27.2 | Last Five Games: 28.8
FP/Game — Season: 21.1 | Last Five Games: 20.6

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM

Indiana Pacers Miami Heat
indiananba Vegas Total 193.0 miaminba Vegas Total 193.0
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 95.5 Team Proj. 97.5
Team Pace 99.40 Team Pace 94.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Lavoy Allen Ian Mahinmi Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside
Last 3 Weeks 3 3 19 2 10 Last 3 Weeks 4 23 4 16 17
Opp. Last 7 13 4 3 3 11 Opp. Last 7 14 3 8 13 16

Indiana Pacers

Record: 19-14 — Road: 7-9 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pacers have lost five of their last ten games and they have struggled on the road this season, posting a 7-9 record. Tonight they head to Miami to take on the Heat. This is one of the worst matchups in daily fantasy in terms of potential fantasy production. The Pacers are only projected to score 95.5 points, which is the fourth lowest team total on the board.

The Heat have been dominant on the defensive end of the floor. They are ranked second in points allowed per game and fifth in defensive efficiency. With such a low team total, the Pacers are an easy team to avoid altogether tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul George

George is an easy fade in cash games, but he may be worth a look in tournaments. After a cold stretch over the last few weeks, George has bounced back in his last two games, scoring 45 and 48 fantasy points. We know the type of upside that he provides and his price is still down across the industry.

FD — $8,800 — SF
DK — $8,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.5 | Last Five Games: 22.6
Min/Game — Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 34.7
FP/Game — Season: 39.6 | Last Five Games: 34.8

Miami Heat

Record: 20-13 — Home: 14-7 — Last 10: 6-4

The Heat have won six of their last ten games, including a blowout win over the Wizards last night. The Heat are listed as 2-point favorites tonight against the Pacers. Indiana is projected to score 97.5 points, which is slightly higher than their average points per game this season.

The Pacers haven’t been as good as the Heat defensively this season, but they aren’t far behind. Indiana is ranked seventh or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Chris Bosh

For whatever reason, Bosh is one of those players that people hate to roster. Even when he is in favorable matchups, his ownership is always low. He has been in great form over his last five games, averaging 36.6 fantasy points per game. Dollar for dollar, he is a strong play tonight against the Pacers.

FD — $7,500 — PF
DK — $7,500 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.9 | Last Five Games: 21.4
Min/Game — Season: 33.2 | Last Five Games: 34.3
FP/Game — Season: 33.8 | Last Five Games: 36.6

Hassan Whiteside

The biggest question with Whiteside is always his playing time. When we can project him for minutes in the mid-30’s, he is a very playable fantasy option. His minutes and production have both been up over his last five games and the Heat haven’t been particularly effective against centers this season.

FD — $7,500 — C
DK — $7,400 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.7 | Last Five Games: 12.6
Min/Game — Season: 29.1 | Last Five Games: 33.9
FP/Game — Season: 33.5 | Last Five Games: 34.0

Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM

Boston Celtics Brooklyn Nets
bostonnba Vegas Total 202.5 brooklynnba Vegas Total 202.5
Vegas Sprd -7.5 Vegas Sprd 7.5
Team Proj. 105.0 Team Proj. 97.5
Team Pace 100.90 Team Pace 97.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Marcus Smart Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger Proj. Starter Shane Larkin Bojan Bogdanovic Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez
Last 3 Weeks 27 24 20 8 28 Last 3 Weeks 1 8 24 25 21
Opp. Last 7 16 18 11 12 28 Opp. Last 7 3 1 13 25 25

Boston Celtics

Record: 18-15 — Road: 9-6 — Last 10: 5-5

The Celtics have lost five of their last ten games, but they are 9-6 on the road and 18-15 overall. Boston heads to Brooklyn tonight to take on the Nets in a very favorable matchup. The Celtics are projected to score 105 points, which is the fourth highest team total on the board.

The Nets have really struggled defensively, ranking 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Celtics’ team total is higher than their average points per game this season, so we can give a nice boost to the offense as a whole. Avery Bradley has been ruled out, which gives a small boost to Isaiah Thomas and Marcus Smart.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Isaiah Thomas

Even though the Celtics are in a nice spot as a whole, Thomas is the only fantasy option of note here. He is a borderline elite play tonight against the Nets, who have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to point guards this season. Thomas should also see a small boost in minutes tonight with Avery Bradley out.

FD — $8,100 — PG
DK — $7,800 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.2 | Last Five Games: 24.2
Min/Game — Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 34.2
FP/Game — Season: 34.5 | Last Five Games: 33.2

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 10-23 — Home: 6-10 — Last 10: 3-7

The Nets have lost seven of their last ten games and have dropped to 10-23 on the season. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Celtics at home. The Nets have an implied team total of 97.5 points, which isn’t particularly high. However, their total is slightly higher than their average points per game this season.

Even though the Celtics play at a fast pace, they are still one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. They are ranked eighth in points allowed per game and second in defensive efficiency. Jarrett Jack has been ruled out for the rest of the season, which means we will see a lot of Shane Larkin, at least in the short term.

Elite Plays

Thaddeus Young

Young has been a reliable fantasy option all season, especially on FanDuel. Over his last five games, he is averaging 34.4 fantasy points per game. He may be a little too expensive on DraftKings, but he is an elite option on FanDuel. He draws a favorable matchup against the Celtics, who have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to power forwards.

FD — $6,700 — PF
DK — $7,200 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.8 | Last Five Games: 17.4
Min/Game — Season: 32.6 | Last Five Games: 34.7
FP/Game — Season: 31.3 | Last Five Games: 34.4

Shane Larkin

Larkin is in play based strictly on attrition. With Jarrett Jack out for the season, the Nets are going to give Larkin the opportunity to win the starting point guard gig. He should immediately step in and see 30+ minutes tonight against the Celtics. Even though the matchup isn’t great, Larkin is one of the best value plays on the board.

FD — $4,500 — PG
DK — $4,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.7 | Last Five Games: 11.1
Min/Game — Season: 19.2 | Last Five Games: 21.1
FP/Game — Season: 16.2 | Last Five Games: 14.0

Secondary Plays

Brook Lopez

Unlike Thaddeus Young, Lopez is much more expensive on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings. He is worth a look tonight on DK, as he comes into this game in great form, averaging 44.2 fantasy points in his last five games.

FD — $8,700 — C
DK — $7,500 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.5 | Last Five Games: 25.9
Min/Game — Season: 33.9 | Last Five Games: 35.5
FP/Game — Season: 35.8 | Last Five Games: 44.2

Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM

Orlando Magic Detroit Pistons
orlandonba Vegas Total 197.0 detroitnba Vegas Total 197.0
Vegas Sprd 3.0 Vegas Sprd -3.0
Team Proj. 97.0 Team Proj. 100.0
Team Pace 96.90 Team Pace 97.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Channing Frye Nikola Vucevic Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Ersan Ilyasova Andre Drummond
Last 3 Weeks 6 10 2 21 8 Last 3 Weeks 14 7 16 13 9
Opp. Last 7 25 11 4 28 6 Opp. Last 7 10 16 10 18 2

Orlando Magic

Record: 19-15 — Road: 7-9 — Last 10: 6-4

The Magic have won six of their last ten games and are now four games above .500 on the season. Tonight’s game against the Pistons should be slow-paced and fairly low scoring. Orlando is projected to score 97 points, which is the fifth lowest team total on the board.

The Pistons have been very good defensively this season, ranking 11th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Magic’s team total is 3.1 points lower than their average points per game. It sounds like the Magic may alter their starting lineup tonight, so be on the lookout for an update later in the day.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Evan Fournier

Fournier is really the only fantasy option on my radar from the Magic tonight. He has played well in the last few weeks and his price is still at an affordable level. He’s not a player that I would start my lineup with, but he’s not the worst option on the board either.

FD — $5,300 — SG
DK — $5,700 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.1 | Last Five Games: 15.6
Min/Game — Season: 31.8 | Last Five Games: 33.1
FP/Game — Season: 23.0 | Last Five Games: 22.7

Detroit Pistons

Record: 18-16 — Home: 11-5 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pistons have lost five of their last ten games, but have an impressive 11-5 record at home. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Magic. Both of these teams are above-average defensively and we can expect a fairly low scoring game. The Pistons are projected to score 100 points, which is right around the average of the 20 teams in action tonight.

The Magic have an underrated defense. They are ranked seventh in points allowed per game and tenth in defensive efficiency. The one positive about the Pistons is that their player’s minutes are very predictable. Stan Van Gundy has a tight rotation and he gives his starters plenty of minutes.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Andre Drummond

Drummond is one of those players that I am always on the wrong side of. He comes into tonight’s game in good form, although the Magic have been tough on opposing centers this season. With all of the viable options at center, he is more of a secondary play tonight at home.

FD — $9,300 — C
DK — $9,200 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.1 | Last Five Games: 22.6
Min/Game — Season: 35.0 | Last Five Games: 34.9
FP/Game — Season: 43.0 | Last Five Games: 42.0

Reggie Jackson

Jackson is a volatile fantasy option. He has an incredibly high ceiling, but also a low floor. I will have quite a bit of exposure to him tonight in tournaments. His price is affordable and he draws a favorable matchup against a hobbled Elfrid Payton.

FD — $7,300 — PG
DK — $7,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.7 | Last Five Games: 26.4
Min/Game — Season: 31.3 | Last Five Games: 29.6
FP/Game — Season: 33.3 | Last Five Games: 29.0

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious