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NBA Grind Down: Monday, March 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-03-28 02:21:36

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET

Orlando Magic Toronto Raptors
Article Image Vegas Total 206.5 Article Image Vegas Total 206.5
Vegas Spread 9.0 Vegas Spread -9.0
Team Total 98.8 Team Total 107.8
Pace +/- -1.6 Pace +/- -0.1
Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Terrence Ross Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic Proj. Starter Cory Joseph DeMar DeRozan P.J. Tucker Serge Ibaka Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 13 3 4 10 10 Adj. DvP 25 23 18 29 23
DRPM -2.45 -2.04 1.28 0.62 0.16 DRPM -0.49 -0.81 -1.30 -0.79 2.03

Orlando Magic

We are hitting the final stretch of the regular season. We have just over two weeks left and it’s important to understand what teams are playing for at this point. The teams that are already in the playoffs and aren’t fighting for positioning are more likely to rest and/or limit players. Teams that are already out of playoff contention are more likely to limit the playing time of their veterans in order to develop their younger players. The teams fighting for their playoff lives or fighting for positioning may end up tightening the rotation, which means more minutes for their starters. These are all things to keep in mind as we are making lineup in the last couple weeks of the season.

The Magic are a team that is out of playoff contention. They don’t really have any veterans to limit down the stretch, so we shouldn’t see a big change in their rotation. They have a decent core of young players and they want to give them as many minutes together as possible. Orlando draws a tough matchup tonight against the Raptors, who have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA since their trade for Serge Ibaka. Toronto is now ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Magic’s implied total is 1.7 points below their average and the third lowest in tonight’s slate.

The Raptors used to be one of the best teams in the NBA at defending point guards, but have dropped to 13th in adjusted DvP. It’s a simple explanation, as Kyle Lowry is a significantly better defender than Cory Joseph. Since Lowry went down, Toronto has dropped their DvP ranking seemingly every time I update the numbers. Elfrid Payton is a sneaky tournament play here. We aren’t getting any kind of discount on Payton, but his ceiling is high enough that we don’t really need to worry about price. Evan Fournier has been quiet in the last two weeks, but his usage rate is up during that stretch and DeMar DeRozan struggles defensively. If you are into narratives, Terrence Ross gets to face his former team at a price of only $4,200 on FanDuel. He may not be efficient against DeMarre Carroll and P.J. Tucker, but Ross is going to be chucking up shots. Aaron Gordon isn’t seeing enough minutes to overcome the fact that he draws a tough matchup against Serge Ibaka. Nikola Vucevic has been tremendous in his last five games, averaging 41 fantasy points. While he has some tournament appeal, center is a loaded position in this slate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Elfrid Payton $7,100 $7,100 0.96 29.2 0.0 28.1 3.8 25.3% -0.4% 13 -2.45
Evan Fournier $5,400 $5,300 0.78 32.8 -2.8 25.6 -2.0 23.9% 1.3% 3 -2.04
Terrence Ross $4,200 $5,000 0.72 24.3 4.1 17.5 3.3 18.6% 1.6% 4 1.28
Aaron Gordon $5,200 $5,300 0.78 27.9 1.2 21.7 -0.9 19.8% -1.7% 10 0.62
Nikola Vucevic $8,200 $7,800 1.17 28.8 1.2 33.7 7.5 25.5% 1.6% 10 0.16

Elite Plays – Terrence Ross (FD)

Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (GPP), Evan Fournier, Nikola Vucevic

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors have won five games in a row and have all but secure home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. They have done an excellent job of staying afloat while they await the return of Kyle Lowry (which could come in the next week or two). Toronto draws an exploitable matchup tonight against the Magic, who are ranked 18th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Raptors are listed as 9-point favorites with an implied total of 107.8 points, which is the highest in the slate.

The last time I targeted Cory Joseph was the second game after Kyle Lowry went down with his injury. FanDuel and DraftKings were very quick to adjust his salary and he hasn’t really had enough exploitable matchups to make him a viable play at the loaded point guard position. I may get back on the Joseph bandwagon tonight, as the Magic are ranked 25th in adjusted DvP against point guards. Joseph should see minutes in the low to mid-30s at a price of only $4,800 on both sites. I prefer Ish Smith in tournaments, but Joseph is the safer cash game target of the two. DeMar DeRozan has scored less than 32 fantasy points in six of his last eight games. While that’s concerning, he also has outings of 66 and a 53 fantasy points during that stretch. In this matchup, DeRozan can be fired up in all formats.

If DeMarre Carroll (Questionable) is unable to suit up, P.J. Tucker would become a great value play in both cash games and tournaments. Even though Serge Ibaka only played a half season with the Magic, the revenge narrative is in play here. Ibaka hasn’t been in the best of form, but he has scored at least 24 fantasy points in four straight games. Jonas Valanciunas has not seen enough minutes lately, but he has scored at least 26 fantasy points in each of his last five games against the Magic if you want to take a shot on him in tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Cory Joseph $4,800 $4,800 0.72 24.8 10.1 17.9 4.0 20.2% -1.8% 25 -0.49
DeMar DeRozan $9,200 $8,600 1.11 35.4 0.9 39.4 2.4 34.1% -0.5% 23 -0.81
P.J. Tucker $3,900 $4,400 0.66 27.9 2.9 18.4 6.5 12.1% 0.1% 18 -1.30
Serge Ibaka $5,700 $6,100 0.89 30.8 -1.8 27.6 -1.5 20.2% 1.9% 29 -0.79
Jonas Valanciunas $5,100 $4,700 0.97 25.8 -2.8 25.1 -6.0 18.9% -3.0% 23 2.03

Elite Plays – Cory Joseph (Cash), DeMar DeRozan (DK), P.J. Tucker (if Carroll is out)

Secondary Plays – Cory Joseph (GPP), DeMar DeRozan (FD), Serge Ibaka, Jonas Valanciunas (GPP)

Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET

Detroit Pistons New York Knicks
Article Image Vegas Total 207.5 Article Image Vegas Total 207.5
Vegas Spread -2.0 Vegas Spread 2.0
Team Total 104.8 Team Total 102.8
Pace +/- 0.2 Pace +/- -1.8
Proj. Starter Ish Smith Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Willy Hernangomez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 10 26 24 15 28 Adj. DvP 18 4 19 14 8
DRPM -2.79 -1.02 -1.66 2.01 0.68 DRPM 1.02 -0.66 0.68 -0.82 1.29

Detroit Pistons

So, who’s ready to load up on the Pistons tonight? Despite being in playoff contention, they continue to get blown out by average NBA teams. Detroit has been untouchable for the last couple of weeks, but we have no choice but to consider them tonight. A matchup against the Knicks is usually a cure for all. On the season, New York is ranked 24th in points allowed per game and 26th in defensive efficiency. The Pistons are still only a game out of the playoffs and have everything to play for at this point. They come into tonight’s game as 2-point favorites with an implied total of 104.8 points, which is the third highest in the slate.

The Pistons’ point guard situation reminds me a lot of the Bulls’ power forward situation from a few weeks ago. I kept targeting the starter and the backup kept be the right play. I was targeting Reggie Jackson before he was benched and the last two games, I targeted Ish Smith. It’s incredibly frustrating and at this point, you are going to be pulling your hair out if you roster either player in cash games. With that said, I will be on Smith in tournaments tonight. He has been the more productive of the two (both statistically and in real life +/-) over the last two months and he draws a favorable matchup against Derrick Rose. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is too cheap on FanDuel at $4,400. I actually prefer to use KCP when Carmelo Anthony is active, because it could boost his playing time.

Marcus Morris and Tobias Harris have struggled in the last five games, but that can be said about the whole team. They have been on the losing end of too many blowouts recently, which has hurt their fantasy production. With this game having such a low spread, we can look to both Morris and Harris. They should both see 30+ minutes against a Knicks’ defense that is ranked 24th and 15th in DvP against small forwards and power forwards. Andre Drummond is in a dream spot tonight against the Knicks. We know that Drummond isn’t nearly as good on the road, but New York is ranked 28th in adjusted DvP against centers. Drummond has 20+ point, 15+ rebound upside tonight. I know the Pistons have been awful recently, but we shouldn’t overthink this. They are playing in a must win game against the Knicks and the spread is set at only two points.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Ish Smith $4,500 $5,000 0.87 23.2 -0.8 20.3 0.6 23.6% 3.2% 10 -2.79
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $4,400 $5,200 0.70 33.6 -2.3 23.6 -3.5 19.4% 0.5% 26 -1.02
Marcus Morris $5,000 $5,100 0.72 32.9 -0.5 23.7 -6.7 20.1% -1.9% 24 -1.66
Tobias Harris $5,400 $6,000 0.83 31.5 0.6 26.1 -3.4 21.5% -2.0% 15 2.01
Andre Drummond $7,600 $7,600 1.20 30.1 -1.9 36.2 -0.7 22.2% -0.2% 28 0.68
Reggie Jackson $4,600 $4,800 0.89 27.4 -4.8 24.3 -5.7 29.7% 4.0% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – Ish Smith (GPP), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (FD), Tobias Harris (FD), Andre Drummond (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Ish Smith (Cash), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DK), Marcus Morris, Tobias Harris (DK), Andre Drummond (Cash)

New York Knicks

The Knicks have no reason to win basketball games at this point of the season. They are tied with two teams with 46 losses on the season, so every win from here on out will only cost them lottery balls in the upcoming draft. New York seems to understand this, as they are going to limit Carmelo Anthony’s minutes the rest of the way. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Pistons, who are are a slow-paced team that is ranked sixth in points allowed per game this season. The Knicks have an implied total of only 102.8 points, which is considerably lower than their season average.

Could Derrick Rose fly under the radar tonight in a matchup against the likes of Ish Smith and Reggie Jackson? Rose has been off of the collective DFS radar for the last couple of weeks, but he played very well the other night against the Spurs, scoring 36 fantasy points. At the very least, he should see 32 minutes in a favorable matchup tonight at home. Even if Carmelo Anthony ends up playing, Rose is worth a look in all formats. Even though Anthony’s price has come down across the industry, I don’t want any part of him if he plays tonight. The Knicks want to limit his minutes and we don’t exactly know what that means yet. If Anthony is out, Mindaugas Kuzminskas becomes an elite value play. Kristaps Porzingis is one of the top power forward targets in this slate. The Knicks are running their offense through him, as evidenced by the usage boost over the last few weeks. Willy Hernangomez finally saw a full complement of minutes against the Spurs and he put up 44 fantasy points. If Anthony is out, bump Hernangomez up to an elite play.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Derrick Rose $5,900 $5,800 0.88 32.5 -0.2 28.8 0.1 27.5% 0.7% 18 1.02
Courtney Lee $4,500 $4,800 0.61 32.2 2.5 19.7 -0.9 14.7% -0.2% 4 -0.66
Carmelo Anthony $7,000 $6,500 1.01 34.5 -1.9 34.8 -7.5 29.0% -5.2% 19 0.68
Kristaps Porzingis $6,700 $7,400 0.99 32.7 -1.0 32.5 0.0 23.8% 2.0% 14 -0.82
Willy Hernangomez $5,100 $5,200 1.05 17.4 4.5 18.3 7.0 20.3% 3.2% 8 1.29
Kyle O’Quinn $4,100 $3,800 1.17 15.2 -0.6 17.8 -0.2 19.6% 3.2% 8 N/A

Elite Plays – Derrick Rose, Kristaps Porzingis, Mindaugas Kuzminskas (if Anthony is out), Willy Hernangomez (if Anthony is out)

Secondary Plays – Willy Hernangomez (if Anthony is active)

Cleveland Cavaliers at San Antonio Spurs – 8:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers San Antonio Spurs
Article Image Vegas Total 209.0 Article Image Vegas Total 209.0
Vegas Spread 5.0 Vegas Spread -5.0
Team Total 102.0 Team Total 107.0
Pace +/- -2.1 Pace +/- -0.3
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Dewayne Dedmon
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 7 13 1 3 2 Adj. DvP 23 30 22 13 20
DRPM -0.83 1.80 0.89 0.88 4.34 DRPM -1.99 -0.47 1.22 2.20 1.22

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers have lost five of their last ten games and only have a one game lead over the Celtics in the loss column. I still expect Cleveland to come out of the East, but the sledding will be a lot tougher if they don’t have home-court advantage in the conference finals. Cleveland needs a win and they would love it to come in a tough spot like this. The Spurs are one of the worst matchups for fantasy production, as they are ranked second in points allowed per game and first in defensive efficiency. The Cavaliers have an implied total of only 102 points, which gives them the lowest projected point differential (-8.5) in the slate.

Kevin Love is still on a minutes restriction, which makes him an easy fade at his price point. He did play 33 minutes the other night against the Wizards, but Cleveland may look to scale back those minutes a bit moving forward. The two players that we obviously need to give a look to tonight are Kyrie Irving and LeBron James. Irving draws the better matchup of the two, as he will be defended by Tony Parker and Patty Mills. Irving is only $7,900 on DraftKings and could end up playing 38-40 minutes in this spot. James is a viable target here as well, although Kawhi Leonard has been the more productive of the two (when factoring in salaries) in their meetings in the last few years. This obviously is an awful matchup, but James should play around 40 minutes and we know his fantasy production is accrued in a number of ways. With Kyle Korver out, J.R. Smith could end up playing minutes in the 30s. It’s not a great spot overall, but he is minimum salary on FanDuel.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $9,100 $7,900 1.10 35.1 -0.9 38.6 3.7 32.3% 3.5% 7 -0.83
J.R. Smith $3,500 $3,800 0.54 27.7 -0.1 15.0 -1.7 14.5% -0.3% 13 1.80
LeBron James $10,900 $10,300 1.30 37.6 0.5 49.0 -1.6 32.8% -1.2% 1 0.89
Kevin Love $7,600 $7,300 1.14 31.3 -3.9 35.8 -4.7 25.4% -2.3% 3 0.88
Tristan Thompson $4,900 $4,300 0.78 29.9 -2.4 23.2 -4.3 11.0% -2.5% 2 4.34

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving (DK)

Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (FD), LeBron James, Kevin Love, J.R. Smith (FD)

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs may not be able to catch the Warriors for the one seed in the West, but they will certainly try to close the gap over the next week or so. The Cavaliers used to be a team that we avoided targeting players against, but that hasn’t been the case this season. Cleveland is ranked 22nd in points allowed per game and 23rd in defensive efficiency. The Spurs’ implied total of 107 points seems a bit low when you look at the Cavs’ defensive statistics. San Antonio is playing at home and their starters should all see a full complement of minutes. I expect the Spurs to hit the over on their implied total.

Tony Parker has not been a viable target in DFS this season, outside of a handful of occasions. As strange as it sounds, this could be one of those times. He is only $4,100 on FanDuel and $4,000 on DraftKings. The Spurs are gearing up for a playoff run and Parker could play minutes in the upper 20s against a team that doesn’t defend point guards well. Kawhi Leonard scored 54 fantasy points in his first meeting against LeBron James this season. Dollar for dollar, I prefer Leonard over James in all formats. I expect Leonard to play close to 40 minutes if the game stays close. LaMarcus Aldridge has been in great form recently, averaging 37 fantasy points in his last five games. Kevin Love is surprisingly good defender (2.20 DRPM), but Aldridge is right there with Kristaps Porzingis as the top power forward target in the slate. This is a sneaky spot for Pau Gasol. His minutes have slowly been trending upward in close games. If he plays 28 minutes tonight, he should easily reach and exceed value.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Tony Parker $4,100 $4,000 0.75 25.5 -0.8 19.2 -0.5 23.3% 0.5% 23 -1.99
Danny Green $3,600 $3,600 0.61 27.0 -2.3 16.6 -2.6 13.5% -2.0% 30 -0.47
Kawhi Leonard $9,100 $9,500 1.22 33.8 0.4 41.2 -6.8 30.8% -4.2% 22 1.22
LaMarcus Aldridge $7,300 $7,000 0.97 32.6 0.5 31.8 5.4 24.2% 2.2% 13 2.20
Dewayne Dedmon $3,500 $3,200 0.90 17.4 -0.4 15.6 -4.3 11.8% -4.0% 20 1.22
Pau Gasol $5,600 $5,200 1.05 25.6 -1.4 27.0 -0.6 21.2% 1.6% 20 N/A
Patty Mills $4,400 $4,000 0.79 22.1 -0.2 17.5 1.5 21.9% -0.2% 23 N/A

Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Tony Parker (GPP), Pau Gasol (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Tony Parker (Cash), Pau Gasol (Cash)

Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder Dallas Mavericks
Article Image Vegas Total 205.0 Article Image Vegas Total 205.0
Vegas Spread -1.0 Vegas Spread 1.0
Team Total 103.0 Team Total 102.0
Pace +/- -4.8 Pace +/- 1.8
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Taj Gibson Steven Adams Proj. Starter Seth Curry Wesley Matthews Harrison Barnes Dirk Nowitzki Nerlens Noel
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 1 8 3 7 7 Adj. DvP 9 15 21 11 12
DRPM -0.13 0.36 -0.20 1.18 1.93 DRPM -0.19 0.93 2.16 1.56 1.34

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder are currently tied with the Clippers with 31 losses. They also have a chance to catch the Jazz for the fourth seed in the West. Utah has the hardest remaining schedule of any team in the Western Conference, while Oklahoma City has the third easiest remaining schedule. Tonight the Thunder take on the Mavericks in what will be a pace-down game for OKC. Dallas is the second slowest-paced team in the NBA and they are ranked third in points allowed per game. The Thunder have an implied total of only 103 points, which is 4.2 points below their season average.

Even in a pace-down matchup against the Mavericks, Russell Westbrook is still the top overall play in the slate. While his projection is higher than everyone else’s, he certainly isn’t the best point-per-dollar play. In their first two meetings this season, Westbrook has scored 49 and 59 fantasy points. His floor of 50 fantasy points should be safe tonight, but he may not have the 70+ fantasy point upside that he does in most matchups. For me, it’s a matter of value. If enough value plays open up, I will work Westbrook into my lineups. If not, I don’t mind playing the fade. Victor Oladipo has been quiet recently and there is another shooting guard at his price point that we’ll get to a bit later. The one weakness of the Mavericks is their rebounding (dead last in rebounding differential). Enes Kanter and Steven Adams are decent tournament fliers in this slate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $12,900 $12,500 1.68 34.6 -3.0 58.1 -5.0 45.8% -6.8% 1 -0.13
Victor Oladipo $6,000 $6,000 0.80 33.2 -2.7 26.7 -1.6 21.5% 3.0% 8 0.36
Andre Roberson $3,800 $4,000 0.59 30.3 -1.3 18.0 3.0 10.4% 1.7% 3 -0.20
Taj Gibson $4,100 $4,100 0.82 26.1 -7.5 21.5 -6.4 18.4% 1.7% 7 1.18
Steven Adams $4,900 $4,900 0.82 30.2 -4.0 24.9 -3.7 16.3% -0.4% 7 1.93
Enes Kanter $6,000 $5,400 1.16 21.6 -0.6 25.0 3.2 26.1% 3.6% 7 N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook (Cash)

Secondary Plays – Russell Westbrook (GPP), Victor Oladipo, Enes Kanter (GPP), Steven Adams (GPP)

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks are now three and a half games behind the Nuggets and Blazers for the last playoff spot in the West. Their slow start to the season will likely end up costing them a playoff birth, but at least they can enter next year with a bit of confidence. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Thunder, who are ranked 18th in points allowed per game and 12th in defensive efficiency. The Mavericks have an implied total of 102 points, which gives them the highest projected point differential (+4.2) in the slate.

In their last two games, the Mavericks have started Nerlens Noel and have brought Yogi Ferrell off the bench. I don’t see a reason for them to change it up again at this point, as they are hoping Noel is their center of the future. Seth Curry has not played well recently, but I do like the idea of him being the only point guard on the floor to start the game. At $5,300 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, Curry is worth a look against the Thunder. Wesley Matthews is only $4,500 on FanDuel and should see close to 35 minutes of action. The upside may be limited, but that price is awfully tempting. Harrison Barnes is also underpriced on FanDuel at $5,600. He will likely get the Andre Roberson treatment, but is a borderline elite play. Dirk Nowitzki always carries low ownership, but rarely plays more than 30 minutes. At this point, he’s a secondary option at power forward. As long as Noel stays in the starting lineup, he will be on my radar on DraftKings at a price of $5,300. He is one game removed from scoring 35 fantasy points in 33 minutes against the Clippers.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Seth Curry $5,300 $5,300 0.72 29.1 -1.0 21.0 -4.0 20.3% 0.4% 9 -0.19
Wesley Matthews $4,500 $5,100 0.68 34.5 -2.1 23.5 -4.1 19.8% -1.7% 15 0.93
Harrison Barnes $5,600 $6,300 0.81 35.8 -1.9 29.1 -4.8 24.4% -3.9% 21 2.16
Dirk Nowitzki $6,000 $6,000 0.98 26.5 -0.2 26.0 -3.0 24.3% -0.9% 11 1.56
Nerlens Noel $5,900 $5,300 1.00 20.7 2.2 20.6 -0.3 17.5% -3.5% 12 1.34
J.J. Barea $3,900 $4,000 0.91 22.3 -4.1 20.3 -3.2 28.6% 3.4% 9 N/A

Elite Plays – Wesley Matthews (FD), Harrison Barnes (FD), Nerlens Noel (DK)

Secondary Plays – Seth Curry (GPP), Wesley Matthews (DK), Harrison Barnes (DK), Dirk Nowitzki, Nerlens Noel (FD)

Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings – 10:30 PM ET

Memphis Grizzlies Sacramento Kings
Article Image Vegas Total 197.0 Article Image Vegas Total 197.0
Vegas Spread -6.0 Vegas Spread 6.0
Team Total 101.5 Team Total 95.5
Pace +/- -1.9 Pace +/- -3.6
Proj. Starter Mike Conley Tony Allen Vince Carter JaMychal Green Marc Gasol Proj. Starter Darren Collison Buddy Hield Arron Afflalo Willie Cauley-Stein Kosta Koufos
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 22 21 27 27 21 Adj. DvP 14 17 6 1 1
DRPM -1.77 -2.65 -2.85 0.73 2.67 DRPM -0.59 1.85 0.03 0.68 0.93

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, after losing to the Warriors last night. Memphis has lost six of their last ten games and appear to be locked into the seven seed in the West, which would likely mean a date with the Spurs in the first round. The Grizzlies draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Kings, who are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Memphis has an implied total of 101.5 points, which is slightly higher than their season average.

Everything from the Grizzlies’ side of the ball is going to hinge on the availability of Marc Gasol. He missed last night’s game with a foot injury and is listed as questionable tonight. If Gasol is unable to suit up, Zach Randolph and JaMychal Green would both become elite plays against a susceptible Kings’ frontcourt. Both players would play close to 30 minutes, which is considerably higher than their season averages. As strange as it sounds, Mike Conley has a lower usage rate and a lower FP/min with Gasol off the floor this season. Everyone would jump on Conley if Gasol is ruled out, but he could make for an interesting fade in tournaments. I still like Conley in this matchup, but his appeal doesn’t really hinge on Gasol. Tony Allen has played well in his last five games, averaging 23 fantasy points per contest. He is cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings and usually excels in turnover prone teams that don’t get back and defend in transition. If Gasol ends up playing, he immediately becomes a viable option on DraftKings at a price of only $7,100.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Mike Conley $7,900 $7,500 1.04 33.4 1.2 34.8 0.5 29.4% 1.5% 22 -1.77
Tony Allen $4,100 $4,000 0.75 27.4 2.1 20.5 1.6 17.6% -1.8% 21 -2.65
Vince Carter $3,700 $3,900 0.67 24.3 6.2 16.4 -0.5 15.6% -2.3% 27 -2.85
JaMychal Green $4,100 $4,000 0.74 27.8 -3.7 20.5 1.6 14.2% 2.9% 27 0.73
Marc Gasol $7,600 $7,100 1.06 34.6 3.3 36.6 -5.0 27.8% -4.2% 21 2.67
Zach Randolph $5,200 $5,000 1.07 24.2 -0.2 25.9 -5.3 28.3% -1.9% 27 N/A

Elite Plays – Mike Conley, JaMychal Green (if Gasol is out), Zach Randolph (if Gasol is out)

Secondary Plays – Tony Allen, Vince Carter, Marc Gasol (DK – if active)

Sacramento Kings

The Kings have been a train wreck in the last few weeks, both on the floor and in DFS. They are constantly resting players after lineups lock and they are constantly getting blown out by average NBA teams. I’m not a big fan of the Kings in general, let alone in a matchup against the Grizzlies, who are ranked fourth in points allowed per game this season. Sacramento has an implied total of only 95.5 points, which is the lowest in the entire slate and 7.3 points below their season average. With Kosta Koufos expected to play tonight, I’m not too interested in the young bigs from Sacramento. Willie Cauley-Stein, Skal Labissiere, and Georgios Papagiannis are worth monitoring in the next couple of weeks, but can be avoided tonight. The only player on my radar in this one is Buddy Hield. He does draw a tough matchup against Tony Allen, but Hield is averaging 31 minutes and 29 fantasy points in his last five games. The Kings traded away a lot to get Hield and they are doing everything they can to develop him as a player.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Darren Collison $5,400 $4,700 0.76 30.5 -3.8 23.3 -5.1 21.9% 0.3% 14 -0.59
Buddy Hield $5,400 $5,700 0.72 22.0 9.3 15.8 13.6 20.8% 1.1% 17 1.85
Arron Afflalo $3,500 $3,000 0.50 25.9 -2.9 12.9 -2.6 14.4% 4.0% 6 0.03
Willie Cauley-Stein $6,100 $5,500 0.86 17.6 11.7 15.1 9.2 18.8% -3.1% 1 0.68
Kosta Koufos $4,100 $3,700 0.80 19.8 -2.1 15.8 -3.4 15.1% 5.6% 1 0.93
Skal Labissiere $4,700 $5,000 1.00 14.9 9.0 14.9 6.0 21.7% -3.2% 1 N/A
Georgios Papagiannis $3,500 $3,700 0.83 12.1 11.3 10.1 11.3 15.6% 2.2% 1 N/A

Elite Plays – Buddy Hield (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Buddy Hield (Cash)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious