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NBA Grind Down: Monday, March 28th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-03-29 03:19:10

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM

Brooklyn Nets Miami Heat
brooklynnba Vegas Total 212.0 miaminba Vegas Total 212.0
Vegas Sprd 10.0 Vegas Sprd -10.0
Team Proj. 101.0 Team Proj. 111.0
Team Pace 97.00 Team Pace 95.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Shane Larkin Sergey Karasev Bojan Bogdanovic Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Joe Johnson Luol Deng Amar’e Stoudemire
Opp. Season 2 3 17 3 6 Opp. Season 23 23 23 19 25
Last 3 Weeks 2 13 20 1 19 Last 3 Weeks 5 17 30 14 16

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 21-51 — Road: 7-27 — Last 10: 3-7

Even though there are ten games on the schedule tonight, the first one doesn’t tip off until 7:30. That gives us an extra half-hour to tinker with lineups, which isn’t always a good thing. The Nets have lost seven of their last ten games and are facing a Heat team that has a lot more to play for at this point of the season. The Nets are only projected to score 101 points, which is the fifth lowest team total on the board.

The Heat have played at a quicker pace since the All-Star break, but are still one of the best defenses teams in the NBA. On the season, they are ranked sixth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. With talk of shutting down or limiting Thaddeus Young and Brook Lopez the rest of the way, the Nets become an easy team to fade altogether tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Miami Heat

Record: 42-30 — Home: 24-13 — Last 10: 6-4

The Heat have won six of their last ten games and are currently fighting for seeding in the Eastern Conference. They are tied with the Hawks and Celtics with 30 losses on the season. The Heat are listed as 10-point favorites tonight against the Nets in what should be an easy win for Miami. They are projected to score 111 points, which gives them the third highest team total and the highest projected point differential.

The Nets are always a favorable matchup for fantasy production. On the season, they are ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. We should give a sizable boost to the Heat offense as a whole, but the double digit spread does bring a potential blowout into the mix. I always like to avoid Dwyane Wade in these situations, as the Heat want to get him as much rest as possible down the stretch of the regular season.

Elite Plays

Hassan Whiteside
hassan-whiteside-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,400 Salary:$8,400
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.22 FP/Min:1.31
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.9 30.0 1.1 29.0 0.1
FPPG (FD) 35.4 38.4 3.0 38.7 3.3
TO-Adj. Usage 15.7 18.6 3.0 19.0 3.4

After a little lull there for a couple of weeks, Whiteside is back in great form. Over his last five games, he is averaging 38.7 fantasy points in just under 30 minutes per contest. While he doesn’t have the same minute upside as some of the other centers, he is averaging an elite 1.22 FP/min this season. He should be able to dominate the paint again tonight against the Nets, who are ranked 25th against centers this season.

Secondary Plays

Goran Dragic
goran-dragic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,800 Salary:$6,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.82 FP/Min:0.88
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.9 34.1 1.2 32.5 -0.4
FPPG (FD) 26.9 32.0 5.1 31.8 4.9
TO-Adj. Usage 18.4 20.6 2.2 21.3 3.0

As usual, I will be looking elsewhere at point guard for cash games. However, Dragic makes a nice GPP play, as his ownership should be low. He is playing is best basketball of the season, averaging 32 fantasy points in his last ten games. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Nets, who are ranked 23rd against point guards this season.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM

Oklahoma City Thunder Toronto Raptors
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 211.0 torontonba Vegas Total 211.0
Vegas Sprd -2.5 Vegas Sprd 2.5
Team Proj. 106.8 Team Proj. 104.3
Team Pace 99.40 Team Pace 95.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Norman Powell Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas
Opp. Season 3 14 7 5 9 Opp. Season 21 20 9 9 4
Last 3 Weeks 1 11 22 6 1 Last 3 Weeks 9 6 13 11 2

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 51-22 — Road: 21-13 — Last 10: 8-2

The Thunder have won eight of their last ten games and are all but locked into the three seed in the Western Conference. Tonight they head to Toronto to take on the Raptors in what should be a competitive game throughout. The Thunder are projected to score 106.8 points tonight. While that may seem high, it is actually 3.5 points lower than their scoring average.

The Raptors have been stout defensively, ranking 11th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Their solid play on defense is reflective of the Thunder’s team total tonight. The good news is that with this game expected to stay close, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant should both see a full complement of minutes.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook
russell-westbrook-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,600 Salary:$10,400
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.42 FP/Min:1.56
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.5 33.4 -1.1 33.4 -1.1
FPPG (FD) 49.0 47.8 -1.3 48.4 -0.6
TO-Adj. Usage 28.4 27.3 -1.1 28.1 -0.3

Typically, I wouldn’t list Westbrook as an elite play in a difficult matchup like the Raptors. However, there is plenty of value in this slate and we have seen that Westbrook is about as matchup-proof as they come. He has been terrific over his last ten games, averaging 47.8 fantasy points in only 33.4 minutes per contest. If tonight’s game goes as expected, Westbrook could end up playing 36-38 minutes.

Kevin Durant
kevin-durant-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,300 Salary:$10,000
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.29 FP/Min:1.40
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.9 33.7 -2.2 34.0 -1.9
FPPG (FD) 46.2 45.0 -1.2 46.6 0.5
TO-Adj. Usage 25.9 27.0 1.1 24.9 -1.0

Even though Durant technically has a better matchup than Russell Westbrook, I see them as comparable plays tonight. I won’t be using Westbrook and Durant in the same lineup, but like the idea of anchoring my cash game lineup with one of them. Given the lack of other options at small forward, I slightly prefer Durant over Westbrook.

Secondary Plays

NONE

Toronto Raptors

Record: 49-23 — Home: 28-8 — Last 10: 7-3

The Raptors have won seven of their last ten games and are 28-8 at home this season. They are currently 2.5 games behind the Cavaliers for the top seed in the East, but that is a tough difference to overcome with only ten games to play. Tonight the Raptors host the Thunder in what should be a great game to watch. They are projected to score 104.3 points, which is right around the average of the 20 teams in action tonight.

The Thunder have been a slightly below-average matchup for fantasy production this season. They are ranked 14th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. This doesn’t seem like a spot where the Raptors would rest anyone, but they have prioritized rest down the stretch of the regular season. As always, make sure to keep your eye on the injury news throughout the day.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry
kyle-lowry-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,600 Salary:$8,400
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.06 FP/Min:1.15
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.2 38.0 0.8 36.8 -0.4
FPPG (FD) 39.4 39.0 -0.5 36.9 -2.6
TO-Adj. Usage 22.8 24.1 1.2 24.6 1.8

Lowry is coming off of two subpar fantasy outings against the Rockets and Pelicans. He should be able to bounce back tonight against the Thunder, who have really struggled to contain point guards – ranked 21st this season. Lowry doesn’t have a great track record against Russell Westbrook, but he is playing the best basketball of his career. I trust the current form and the matchup more than his history against OKC.

Secondary Plays

DeMar DeRozan
demar-derozan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,900 Salary:$7,800
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.97 FP/Min:1.02
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.2 37.0 0.8 34.5 -1.7
FPPG (FD) 35.1 36.8 1.7 31.8 -3.3
TO-Adj. Usage 25.8 26.0 0.2 22.3 -3.5

DeRozan’s production has been down over his last five games, but he is still averaging 31.8 fantasy points during that stretch. He has a very high floor and he rarely has a night where he kills your lineup. He is a safe cash game target tonight against the Thunder, although the matchup isn’t as good as it would have been a few weeks ago. Andre Roberson is a lot better defender than Dion Waiters.

New York Knicks at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM

New York Knicks New Orleans Pelicans
newyorknba Vegas Total 201.5 neworleansnba Vegas Total 201.5
Vegas Sprd -4.5 Vegas Sprd 4.5
Team Proj. 103.0 Team Proj. 98.5
Team Pace 95.80 Team Pace 99.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Sasha Vujacic Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Toney Douglas Alonzo Gee Dante Cunningham Alexis Ajinca Omer Asik
Opp. Season 19 26 15 20 29 Opp. Season 20 15 10 6 14
Last 3 Weeks 28 23 16 26 20 Last 3 Weeks 20 25 12 9 7

New York Knicks

Record: 30-44 — Road: 13-24 — Last 10: 4-6

The Knicks have lost six of their last ten games, although they did beat the Bulls in back-to-back games. Tonight they head to New Orleans to take on the third-string Pelicans. The Knicks are listed as 4.5-point favorites with an implied team total of 103 points. The Knicks have the seventh highest projected point differential at +4.2.

The Pelicans have been an exploitable matchup all season. They are ranked 22nd or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. I have been avoiding the Knicks for the most part recently, but this is a great spot to get a couple of them in your lineup.

Elite Plays

Kristaps Porzingis
kristaps-porzingis-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,700 Salary:$6,100
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.08
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.3 31.1 2.8 36.0 7.7
FPPG (FD) 28.2 28.1 -0.2 33.2 5.0
TO-Adj. Usage 20.5 22.0 1.5 20.5 -0.1

Believe it or not, Porzingis is finally starting to see consistent minutes. Over his last five games, he is averaging 33.2 fantasy points in 36 minutes per contest. The Knicks are finally realizing that with nothing to play for, they might as well develop their young talent. I’m all aboard the Zingis train tonight, as the Pelicans are ranked 26th against power forwards over the last three weeks of play.

Secondary Plays

Carmelo Anthony
carmelo-anthony-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,700 Salary:$8,300
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.07 FP/Min:1.13
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.6 37.1 1.5 38.3 2.7
FPPG (FD) 38.2 38.5 0.3 37.8 -0.4
TO-Adj. Usage 25.5 23.8 -1.7 25.7 0.2

Anthony is a borderline elite play tonight, but I struggle to target superstars on teams that have nothing to play for at this point of the season. The Knicks say that they will not limit him down the stretch though, which does allow us to have some confidence in his minutes. Anthony obviously draws a great matchup against the Pelicans, who have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season.

Robin Lopez
robin-lopez-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,800 Salary:$5,400
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.84 FP/Min:0.90
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.8 30.6 3.8 32.9 6.1
FPPG (FD) 22.6 27.2 4.6 29.5 6.9
TO-Adj. Usage 14.0 13.6 -0.4 14.0 0.0

I have maybe rostered RoLo two times this season (in cash games). I have had a hard time paying a premium for him, but his recent production more than justifies the play. Over his last five games, he is averaging 29.5 fantasy points in just under 33 minutes per contest. He should be able to post another quality outing tonight against the Pelicans. He is a borderline elite play tonight at center.

New Orleans Pelicans

Record: 26-46 — Home: 18-18 — Last 10: 2-8

The Pelicans have lost eight of their last ten games, but that is to be expected when you take a look at the lineups that they have been rolling out over the last couple of weeks. New Orleans is expected to keep tonight’s game against the Knicks close and even though their team total isn’t high, their 98.5 points has to come from somewhere.

The Knicks have been a mediocre matchup for fantasy production this season, ranking between 11th and 18th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Jrue Holiday and Norris Cole have both missed a number of games recently. They are both listed as questionable ahead of tonight’s game. If they are unable to suit up, Toney Douglas and Tim Frazier would become viable options. If Holiday is active, he becomes a strong play himself.

Elite Plays / Secondary Plays

The Pelicans’ fantasy options hinge on the availability of both Jrue Holiday and Norris Cole. Omer Asik, Alonzo Gee, and Dante Cunningham are all intriguing punt plays at their respective positions.

Jrue Holiday
jrue-holiday-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,200 Salary:$8,500
Position:SG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.06 FP/Min:1.15
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.1 34.8 6.7 38.0 9.9
FPPG (FD) 29.9 36.1 6.2 42.2 12.3
TO-Adj. Usage 25.0 26.3 1.3 25.5 0.6
Toney Douglas
toney-douglas-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,800 Salary:$5,400
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.80 FP/Min:0.86
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 18.4 30.7 12.3 29.9 11.5
FPPG (FD) 14.8 27.1 12.3 26.4 11.7
TO-Adj. Usage 16.6 18.9 2.3 21.3 4.6
Tim Frazier
tim-frazier-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,000 Salary:$4,100
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.71 FP/Min:0.78
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 10.5 26.5 16.0 26.5 16.0
FPPG (FD) 7.5 24.9 17.4 23.3 15.8
TO-Adj. Usage 14.3 18.4 4.1 18.0 3.7
Omer Asik
omer-asik-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,900 Salary:$4,300
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.72 FP/Min:0.75
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 17.4 17.5 0.1 22.2 4.8
FPPG (FD) 12.5 14.1 1.6 19.5 6.9
TO-Adj. Usage 8.3 11.0 2.7 12.7 4.4
Alonzo Gee
alonzo-gee-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,800 Salary:$3,300
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.50 FP/Min:0.53
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 22.4 30.3 7.9 32.8 10.4
FPPG (FD) 11.3 16.8 5.5 15.7 4.4
TO-Adj. Usage 7.3 8.5 1.2 9.7 2.4
Dante Cunningham
dante-cunningham-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,700 Salary:$3,800
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.49 FP/Min:0.52
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 23.2 32.3 9.1 33.8 10.6
FPPG (FD) 11.3 16.0 4.7 17.2 5.9
TO-Adj. Usage 8.8 10.5 1.6 11.6 2.8

San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM

San Antonio Spurs Memphis Grizzlies
sanantonionba Vegas Total 192.5 memphisnba Vegas Total 192.5
Vegas Sprd -7.5 Vegas Sprd 7.5
Team Proj. 100.0 Team Proj. 92.5
Team Pace 96.20 Team Pace 95.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Patrick Mills Danny Green Kyle Anderson LaMarcus Aldridge Boris Diaw Proj. Starter Jordan Farmar Tony Allen Matt Barnes JaMychal Green Chris Andersen
Opp. Season 9 4 14 12 5 Opp. Season 4 1 1 3 3
Last 3 Weeks 21 9 19 29 21 Last 3 Weeks 7 16 4 2 8

San Antonio Spurs

Record: 61-12 — Road: 24-12 — Last 10: 8-2

The Spurs have won eight of their last ten games, but have been resting players left and right recently. Since they are all but locked into the two seed in the West, health is obviously more important than their record. Tonight they head to Memphis to take on the Grizzlies in what should be a defensive battle. The Spurs are only projected to score 100 points, which gives them the fourth lowest team total on the board.

The Grizzlies have not been great defensively over the last month, but they are still ranked eighth in points allowed per game this season. Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, and Manu Ginobili will all be rested tonight. Kawhi Leonard has also been ruled out tonight, which makes Kyle Anderson a viable punt play at small forward.

Elite Plays

LaMarcus Aldridge
lamarcus-aldridge-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$7,300
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.05 FP/Min:1.11
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.5 31.8 1.3 32.7 2.2
FPPG (FD) 32.1 39.7 7.6 39.5 7.4
TO-Adj. Usage 22.0 23.9 1.9 23.5 1.5

Aldridge is listed as probable tonight, but he is fully expected to play. With the Spurs resting their players, Aldridge should have an extremely high usage again tonight. He has been in incredible form recently, averaging 39.7 fantasy points over his last ten games. He also had a huge game against this same Grizzlies’ team last week, posting 57 fantasy points in 33 minutes of action.

Secondary Plays

Patrick Mills
patrick-mills-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,700 Salary:$3,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.78 FP/Min:0.85
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 20.5 20.3 -0.2 20.7 0.2
FPPG (FD) 16.0 14.7 -1.3 9.3 -6.7
TO-Adj. Usage 17.6 18.9 1.3 14.2 -3.4

With Tony Parker out, Mills is expected to draw the start at point guard tonight. He hasn’t exactly excelled in this role this season, but he should see a nice boost in minutes. In seven games without Parker in the lineup this season, Mills is averaging 24.5 minutes, 10.6 points, 2.1 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per contest. With all of the value in the Mavericks’ backcourt, Mills is more of a secondary play tonight.

Boris Diaw
boris-diaw-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,500 Salary:$3,300
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.74 FP/Min:0.79
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 18.3 17.1 -1.2 24.3 6.0
FPPG (FD) 13.6 11.6 -2.0 16.1 2.5
TO-Adj. Usage 13.8 12.1 -1.7 11.4 -2.4

If Diaw draws the start at center tonight, he will make a fine punt play at power forward. Over his last five games, he is averaging 16.1 fantasy points in 24.3 minutes per contest. Diaw is close to minimum-salary across the industry tonight and would only need 20 fantasy points to exceed value. He’s far from a must play, but he offers decent value if you are in a pinch at power forward.

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 41-32 — Home: 25-11 — Last 10: 3-7

The Grizzlies have lost seven of their last ten games, but are still looking like they will end up being the five seed in the West. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Spurs, who have the best defense in the NBA. In addition to being 7.5-point underdogs, the Grizzlies have the second lowest team total on the board at only 92.5 points.

The Spurs have been the best defensive team in the NBA this season. They are ranked first in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Zach Randolph is listed as questionable for tonight’s game, but his availability doesn’t change much in the daily fantasy basketball landscape. The Grizzlies are an easy team to avoid altogether.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM

Phoenix Suns Minnesota Timberwolves
phoenixnba Vegas Total 218.0 minnesotanba Vegas Total 218.0
Vegas Sprd 6.5 Vegas Sprd -6.5
Team Proj. 105.8 Team Proj. 112.3
Team Pace 100.50 Team Pace 97.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Brandon Knight John Jenkins Devin Booker P.J. Tucker Alex Len Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns
Opp. Season 23 22 18 11 7 Opp. Season 29 30 27 15 11
Last 3 Weeks 25 8 14 27 14 Last 3 Weeks 27 22 15 21 26

Phoenix Suns

Record: 20-53 — Road: 7-29 — Last 10: 3-7

The Suns have lost seven of their last ten games and are now 20-53 overall. Tonight they head to Minnesota to take on the Wolves in what should be one of the fastest paced games of the night. The Suns are projected to score 105.8 points, which gives them the sixth highest team total and the fifth highest projected point differential.

The Wolves are always one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule. They like to push the pace, they are generally pretty competitive, and they are ranked 24th in points allowed per game. Tyson Chandler and Jon Leuer both missed Saturday’s game against the Celtics, but are both expected to play tonight. There are a lot of bodies splitting minutes in their frontcourt now, making their bigs risky fantasy options.

Elite Plays

Brandon Knight
brandon-knight-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,100 Salary:$7,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.88 FP/Min:0.97
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.0 34.8 -1.2 35.7 -0.3
FPPG (FD) 31.8 32.5 0.7 36.4 4.6
TO-Adj. Usage 22.3 22.6 0.4 24.1 1.9

Knight burned a lot of people on Friday night, after sitting out the game with an illness. I luckily pivoted off of him on early lock sites after the Suns mentioned that he was dealing with a sore hamstring. Knight returned to action on Saturday against the Celtics and even though he didn’t play great, he was able to log 39 minutes. If he sees 35+ minutes tonight against the Wolves, he will have a great shot of reaching and exceeding value, as they are ranked 23rd against point guards this season.

Devin Booker
devin-booker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,600 Salary:$6,500
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.72 FP/Min:0.79
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.7 37.2 10.5 35.5 8.8
FPPG (FD) 19.3 32.7 13.3 34.4 15.1
TO-Adj. Usage 18.8 24.3 5.5 25.3 6.5

Booker continues to impress in his rookie season. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 32.7 fantasy points in 37.2 minutes per contest. The statistic that stands out the most during that stretch is his TO-adjusted usage rate of 24.3. Booker is still a little underpriced for his recent production and role in the Suns’ offense. He is an elite play tonight in all league formats.

Secondary Plays

P.J. Tucker
p.j.-tucker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,800 Salary:$4,800
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.63 FP/Min:0.67
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.7 32.8 2.1 35.9 5.2
FPPG (FD) 19.3 22.7 3.4 26.8 7.6
TO-Adj. Usage 10.3 11.9 1.7 11.4 1.1

With Leuer out on Saturday, Tucker started at power forward and finished with 31 fantasy points in 38 minutes of action. Even though Leuer and Tyson Chandler are expected to play tonight, Tucker is still cheap across the industry and he seems like a safe bet to play 35+ minutes again. That’s never a bad thing in game against the Wolves that is expected to be fast paced and high scoring.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Record: 24-49 — Home: 12-24 — Last 10: 4-6

The Wolves have lost six of their last ten games, but are listed as 6.5-point favorites tonight against the Suns. This should be a great game environment for fantasy production. The Wolves are projected to score 112.3 points here, which gives them the second highest team total and the third highest projected point differential tonight.

The Suns have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season. They are ranked 26th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. We should give a sizable boost the Wolves’ offense as a whole. All five starters deserve fantasy consideration tonight.

Elite Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns
karl-anthony-towns-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,900 Salary:$8,100
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.22
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.7 37.7 6.0 37.9 6.2
FPPG (FD) 36.0 40.6 4.6 43.9 7.9
TO-Adj. Usage 20.2 20.1 -0.1 21.8 1.6

Towns is the premier play at center tonight. His price on FanDuel is fair ($8,900), but he is still way too cheap on DraftKings ($8,100). He has played well in some difficult matchups this season and now he gets to face a Suns’ defense that is ranked 26th against centers over the last three weeks. Towns has been on an absolute tear over his last five games, averaging 43.9 fantasy points per contest. He is a shoe-in for Rookie of the Year.

Andrew Wiggins
andrew-wiggins-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,600 Salary:$6,300
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.82 FP/Min:0.86
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.2 38.1 2.9 39.0 3.8
FPPG (FD) 28.9 30.9 2.0 30.8 1.9
TO-Adj. Usage 22.7 20.0 -2.8 19.7 -3.0

The Wolves really struggled against the Jazz the other night, but if you take that game away, Wiggins has been in great form recently. He has scored at least 32 fantasy points in six of his last ten games and the Suns have not fared well against wing players this season. I prefer to target Wiggins on FanDuel rather than DraftKings, as he is listed as a small forward.

Zach LaVine
zach-lavine-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,100 Salary:$5,800
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.81 FP/Min:0.87
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.6 38.7 11.1 39.8 12.2
FPPG (FD) 22.3 25.5 3.2 25.7 3.3
TO-Adj. Usage 20.4 16.8 -3.6 16.3 -4.1

LaVine also struggled against the Jazz, but has otherwise been in great form. He has scored at least 32 fantasy points in four of his last seven games. He should be able to find success tonight against the Suns, who have arguably had the worst defensive backcourt in the NBA this season. They are ranked 29th against point guards and 30th against shooting guards.

Secondary Plays

Ricky Rubio
ricky-rubio-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,300 Salary:$6,900
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.07
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.9 32.3 1.4 33.3 2.4
FPPG (FD) 30.8 34.9 4.1 35.5 4.7
TO-Adj. Usage 16.5 16.8 0.4 17.1 0.6

Rubio has been a boom or bust fantasy option recently, but he is averaging 34.9 fantasy points over his last ten games. He draws an excellent matchup tonight against the Suns and he should see 32-34 minutes if the game stays close. Rubio is an elite play in a vacuum and I don’t mind using him in cash games and GPPs. The only reason he is listed as a secondary play tonight is because he is my fourth favorite play on the Wolves.

Gorgui Dieng
gorgui-dieng-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,500 Salary:$6,000
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.89 FP/Min:0.95
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.4 32.5 5.1 34.0 6.6
FPPG (FD) 24.3 32.2 7.9 31.2 6.9
TO-Adj. Usage 13.1 14.4 1.3 13.6 0.5

Dieng has played well over his last five games, averaging 31.2 fantasy points in 34 minutes per contest. He is not playing 40 minutes per game like he was earlier in the season, but I’ll take 34-35 minutes against this Suns’ defense any day of the week. The only question is how many Wolves are too many Wolves tonight?

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious