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NBA Grind Down: Monday, March 6th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-03-07 03:38:04

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET

Miami Heat Cleveland Cavaliers
miaminba Vegas Total 215.5 clevelandnba Vegas Total 215.5
Vegas Spread 9.0 Vegas Spread -9.0
Team Total 103.3 Team Total 112.3
Pace +/- 0.1 Pace +/- -1.2
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Rodney McGruder Dion Waiters Luke Babbitt Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving Iman Shumpert LeBron James Channing Frye Tristan Thompson
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 23 29 24 3 16 Adj. DvP 5 2 5 12 18
DRPM -1.59 0.03 1.18 -1.17 1.64 DRPM -1.96 -0.74 0.21 1.68 2.06

Miami Heat

We have a rare 12-game slate on tap tonight, so we will keep the team analysis to a minimum and instead focus on the best plays from each team. The Heat beat the Cavaliers the other night at home, but you can throw those statistics out the window, as Cleveland decided to rest LeBron James and Kyrie Irving. Tonight’s game should be a different story, as the Heat are listed as 9-point underdogs on the road. The matchup isn’t terrible on paper though, as the Cavaliers are ranked 22nd in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season.

Goran Dragic’s minutes have been down over his last five games, but that has more to do with game flow than anything else. If the Heat are able to keep tonight’s game close, he should play 33-35 minutes against a Cavaliers’ defense that is ranked 23rd in adjusted DvP against point guards. Dragic is a viable tournament play on DraftKings at a price of $7,100, but is far from a core play in this slate. Hassan Whiteside has scored at least 36 fantasy points in seven straight games and is also worth a look in tournaments on DraftKings at a price of $7,700. Outside of Dragic and Whiteside, there isn’t a lot to love on this side of the ball. James Johnson and Tyler Johnson have both flashed upside off the bench, but it’s hard to make an argument for either player in this massive slate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Goran Dragic $7,500 $7,100 0.99 33.7 -4.4 33.5 -1.0 29.1% 1.6% 23 -1.59
Rodney McGruder $3,500 $3,000 0.54 25.6 -5.6 13.8 -3.2 12.3% 0.3% 29 0.03
Dion Waiters $6,500 $6,000 0.88 30.3 -3.9 26.6 -7.5 27.4% 0.9% 24 1.18
Luke Babbitt $3,500 $3,000 0.55 15.7 0.6 8.7 3.1 13.1% -2.5% 3 -1.17
Hassan Whiteside $8,700 $7,700 1.17 32.7 -0.7 38.2 2.1 21.3% 0.3% 16 1.64
James Johnson $6,200 $5,800 0.94 26.4 1.0 24.9 5.0 23.2% 0.1% 3 N/A
Tyler Johnson $5,800 $5,700 0.88 30.4 -2.9 26.9 -0.3 21.8% 0.2% 23 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic (DK), Hassan Whiteside

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers aren’t concerned with their record the rest of the way. All they want to do is secure the one seed in the East and make it to the playoffs in good health. They should be able to pick up a win tonight at home against the Heat. Even though this isn’t a great matchup on paper, the Cavaliers still have an implied total of 112.3 points, which is the second highest in the slate and 1.3 points above their season average.

I like to quote the same statistic every time the Cavaliers are playing without Kevin Love. Kyrie Irving sees close to a 5% usage boost and averages nearly 0.20 more fantasy points per minute. He is coming off of a monster game against the Hawks and he draws a decent matchup tonight against Goran Dragic, who has a DRPM of -1.96 this season. Irving is going to get overlooked in this slate, but he’s one of my favorite tournament plays. LeBron James always garners a fair amount of ownership, but I will likely have very little exposure to him tonight. His price is inflated and the Heat have been very good at defending small forwards. The fact that small forward is loaded with value (especially on FanDuel) doesn’t help LeBron’s fantasy appeal. The rest of the Cavaliers can be avoided in a game that could potentially turn into a blowout.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $9,400 $8,900 1.09 35.1 -0.3 38.2 11.6 32.2% 3.2% 5 -1.96
Iman Shumpert $3,500 $3,400 0.58 25.4 0.7 14.6 -3.8 13.9% -0.3% 2 -0.74
LeBron James $11,000 $11,200 1.29 37.6 1.2 48.5 6.5 32.8% 0.2% 5 0.21
Channing Frye $4,600 $4,500 0.85 18.9 2.2 16.0 1.0 19.2% -1.2% 12 1.68
Tristan Thompson $5,800 $5,000 0.78 30.2 1.7 23.5 -3.5 11.1% 0.7% 18 2.06
Kyle Korver $4,100 $4,300 0.63 27.2 0.6 17.1 -1.2 15.0% 1.1% 2 N/A

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (Cash)

Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks Philadelphia 76ers
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 212.5 philadelphianba Vegas Total 212.5
Vegas Spread -4.0 Vegas Spread 4.0
Team Total 108.3 Team Total 104.3
Pace +/- 2.1 Pace +/- -1.3
Proj. Starter Malcolm Brogdon Tony Snell Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Thon Maker Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Gerald Henderson Robert Covington Dario Saric Richaun Holmes
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 21 22 20 10 29 Adj. DvP 6 5 19 16 25
DRPM 0.21 -1.51 3.57 -1.17 0.73 DRPM -0.27 -0.85 -0.33 2.18 0.11

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have been a frustrating team to target this season, largely in part due to the random rotations of Jason Kidd. It sounds like the frontcourt issue is only going to get worse moving forward, as Terrence Jones is expected to see the floor for the first time in a Bucks’ uniform. While I’m not a fan of the way that Kidd coaches, Milwaukee draws an excellent matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked 23rd in points allowed per game. The Bucks have an implied total of 108.3 points, which is 3.2 points above their season average.

Malcolm Brogdon has quietly played well in his last five games, averaging 26 fantasy points in over 30 minutes per contest. As long as he remains in the starting lineup tonight, he will offer good value on both FanDuel ($5,000) and DraftKings ($5,500). Tony Snell could play 60 minutes tonight and I still wouldn’t have an interest. Khris Middleton appears close to a must play tonight on FanDuel. He has been on fire over his last five games, averaging over 30 fantasy points per contest. If Robert Covington ends up defending Giannis Antetkounmpo, that would only boost Middleton’s appeal. Antetokounmpo has been too inconsistent to trust in a cash game setting, but we know he has 60+ fantasy point upside in a matchup against the Sixers. Keep him in mind when making your GPP lineups. Greg Monroe should play between 18-35 minutes (thanks coach). While the matchup is enticing (no Jahlil Okafor), Monroe should only be targeted in tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Malcolm Brogdon $5,000 $5,500 0.78 25.9 4.9 20.2 5.5 20.6% 2.1% 21 0.21
Tony Snell $3,700 $3,300 0.50 28.7 1.2 14.4 -1.9 11.5% 1.1% 22 -1.51
Khris Middleton $5,600 $6,500 0.98 25.1 5.4 24.7 5.9 24.8% 0.1% 20 3.57
Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,800 $10,000 1.30 35.4 0.3 46.0 -6.4 29.3% -4.4% 10 -1.17
Thon Maker $3,500 $3,000 0.83 8.0 3.0 6.7 0.3 17.7% -0.3% 29 0.73
Greg Monroe $6,600 $6,200 1.13 22.2 4.2 25.1 4.6 23.6% -1.2% 29 N/A
Terrence Jones $5,500 $4,000 0.93 24.8 23.1 20.7% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – Khris Middleton (FD)

Secondary Plays – Khris Middleton (DK), Malcolm Brogdon, Giannis Antetokounmpo (GPP), Greg Monroe (GPP)

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers can’t seem to keep their frontcourt intact. Joel Embiid is out for the season, Nerlens Noel was shipped off to Dallas, and now Jahlil Okafor is expected to miss his second game in a row. With those three out, there will be a ton of open minutes in the Sixers’ frontcourt tonight, as they take on the Bucks. This is a mediocre matchup overall, but Philadelphia comes into the game with an implied total of 104.3 points, which is considerably higher than their season average.

T.J. McConnell has been a serviceable value play this season, but there is no reason to look at him tonight in a 12 game slate. Nik Stauskas is coming off of a huge game on Saturday, but he will likely head back to the bench with Gerald Henderson expected to return to the lineup. Robert Covington should play 35+ minutes tonight, but I have two concerns. First, he could get into foul trouble defending the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton. And second, the Bucks have some good wing defenders. I much prefer Dario Saric, who has scored at least 35 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games. Saric is an intriguing pivot off of Kristaps Porzingis, who is becoming the chalk play at power forward. Richaun Holmes should see minutes in the upper 20s tonight and we know that the Bucks struggle against centers. Holmes averages nearly a fantasy point per minute, so I have a ton of interest in him tonight with Okafor out.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
T.J. McConnell $5,600 $5,400 0.82 25.2 2.7 20.8 1.8 19.2% -0.8% 6 -0.27
Gerald Henderson $3,600 $3,800 0.67 24.1 -1.9 16.2 -0.6 17.9% 2.6% 5 -0.85
Robert Covington $7,200 $7,000 0.83 31.3 0.9 26.1 4.6 18.4% 3.5% 19 -0.33
Dario Saric $7,400 $7,400 0.87 25.2 6.6 22.0 12.6 23.1% 2.9% 16 2.18
Richaun Holmes $4,500 $5,200 0.95 17.2 6.4 16.4 5.7 17.2% -1.7% 25 0.11
Justin Anderson $3,700 $4,000 0.83 14.4 4.4 11.9 2.2 20.3% -5.3% 19 N/A
Nik Stauskas $3,900 $4,000 0.59 27.1 0.9 16.1 2.6 16.5% 2.8% 5 N/A

Elite Plays – Dario Saric, Richaun Holmes (FD)

Secondary Plays – Richaun Holmes (DK), Robert Covington

New York Knicks at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

New York Knicks Orlando Magic
newyorknba Vegas Total 209.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 209.5
Vegas Spread 2.0 Vegas Spread -2.0
Team Total 103.8 Team Total 105.8
Pace +/- -0.3 Pace +/- 0.4
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Lance Thomas Kristaps Porzingis Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Terrence Ross Aaron Gordon Bismack Biyombo
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 27 19 13 17 26 Adj. DvP 9 24 26 20 27
DRPM -0.82 -0.80 -0.79 -0.57 0.59 DRPM -2.72 -1.00 -2.14 -1.50 1.66

New York Knicks

The Knicks are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, after losing to the Warriors yesterday. Tonight they travel to Orlando to take on the Magic in what is one of my favorite games to target in the slate. The Magic are a prime matchup for fantasy production, as they are ranked below the league average in nearly every defensive category. The Knicks come into the game as 2-point underdogs with an implied total of 103.8 points.

Derrick Rose has played well over his last five games, averaging 36 minutes and 31 fantasy points per contest. He hasn’t shown a high ceiling lately, but the floor makes him a viable cash game target on both FanDuel and DraftKings. There is another point guard that I prefer in this price range, but we’ll get to him later. Courtney Lee should be less than 5% owned tonight and he should play 33-35 minutes against a bad defensive team. Carmelo Anthony is a viable play here as well, although I’m looking to pay up or down down at small forward in most of my lineups tonight. Kristaps Porzingis grades out as the best point-per-dollar play at power forward in this slate, but I have my concerns. He logged 40 minutes last night against the Warriors and Willy Hernangomez is back in the lineup. I would be surprised if Porzingis played more then 32-33 minutes tonight. With that said, 32-33 minutes against the Magic is plenty of time for Porzingis to reach value.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Derrick Rose $6,500 $6,300 0.89 32.6 3.7 28.9 2.8 27.7% -1.8% 27 -0.82
Courtney Lee $4,900 $5,000 0.61 31.6 1.7 19.3 2.0 14.3% -1.2% 19 -0.80
Carmelo Anthony $7,900 $7,800 1.03 34.4 2.6 35.5 -1.2 29.4% -1.4% 13 -0.79
Lance Thomas $4,300 $4,000 0.51 19.9 13.2 10.2 10.3 13.4% -0.1% 17 -0.57
Kristaps Porzingis $6,700 $6,900 0.99 32.8 1.9 32.4 5.0 23.4% 0.2% 26 0.59
Kyle O’Quinn $4,500 $4,500 1.14 15.5 1.7 17.7 3.1 19.2% -3.6% 26 N/A

Elite Plays – Kristaps Porzingis

Secondary Plays – Derrick Rose, Carmelo Anthony, Courtney Lee (GPP)

Orlando Magic

One of the biggest pieces of injury news that we are waiting on is the availability of Nikola Vucevic. He missed last night’s game with a sore Achilles and is listed as questionable for tonight’s bout against the Knicks. The good news is that this game tips off right at 7:00 PM ET, so we will have plenty of time to adjust once the news comes out. The Magic have the second highest projected point differential in the slate (+5.8), as they take on a Knicks’ defense that is ranked 25th in points allowed per game this season.

Elfrid Payton has played well on a per-minute basis in his last five games, but he is only averaging 25.5 minutes during that stretch. It’s hard to get excited about using a player that projects to see less than 30 minutes, especially in a 12 game slate. Evan Fournier has underperformed in the last couple of weeks, but shooting guards have had a ton of success against the Knicks this season. Not only that, but Fournier sees a 2.8% usage bump with Nikola Vucevic off the floor. Terrence Ross is a tough fade on FanDuel at a price of only $4,500. Despite averaging 28 fantasy points in his last five games, FanDuel refuses to adjust his salary. He will be chalk, but he is good chalk. Aaron Gordon is a bit too cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings, especially if Vucevic is ruled out. Gordon sees a 2.2% usage bump without Vucevic and he’d likely see a minute boost as well. If Vucevic is ruled out, Bismack Biyombo becomes a lock play for me in both cash games and tournaments. He had 35 fantasy points in a difficult matchup against the Wizards last night. If Vucevic is ruled out, don’t be afraid to employ a Magic stack here.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Elfrid Payton $5,700 $5,900 0.92 28.9 -3.4 26.6 0.3 25.3% -0.9% 9 -2.72
Evan Fournier $5,300 $5,500 0.76 33.3 2.3 25.4 -2.4 23.9% -1.8% 24 -1.00
Terrence Ross $4,500 $5,700 0.76 23.4 11.1 17.7 10.5 18.7% -0.5% 26 -2.14
Aaron Gordon $5,200 $5,500 0.76 27.7 1.0 21.1 6.7 19.8% 2.6% 20 -1.50
Bismack Biyombo $3,500 $3,000 0.78 23.1 -2.4 17.9 -1.9 13.3% 1.6% 27 1.66
Mario Hezonja $3,500 $3,000 0.64 12.4 7.9 8.0 4.2 19.4% -4.4% 24 N/A

Elite Plays – Evan Fournier (FD), Terrence Ross (FD), Aaron Gordon, Bismack Biyombo (if Vucevic is out)

Secondary Plays – Evan Fournier (DK), Terrence Ross (DK)

Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM ET

Chicago Bulls Detroit Pistons
chicagonba Vegas Total 206.5 detroitnba Vegas Total 206.5
Vegas Spread 4.5 Vegas Spread -4.5
Team Total 101.0 Team Total 105.5
Pace +/- -1.7 Pace +/- -1.3
Proj. Starter Jerian Grant Paul Zipser Jimmy Butler Bobby Portis Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Jon Leuer Andre Drummond
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 20 3 4 11 8 Adj. DvP 17 15 12 21 9
DRPM -2.68 0.10 0.88 0.85 1.51 DRPM 0.24 -0.06 1.57 -0.72 0.18

Chicago Bulls

This is one of those games that I planned to gloss over until Dwyane Wade was ruled out. On paper, there is very little fantasy appeal in a matchup against the Pistons. On the season, Detroit is ranked eighth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Bulls come into the game as 4.5-point underdogs with the third lowest implied total in the slate at 101 points. Injuries can change everything though, as Wade’s absence opens the door for one player in particular. With Wade off the floor this season, Jimmy Butler has a 34% usage rate (5.5% boost) with a 0.18 FP/min boost. Even in a bad matchup against the Pistons (likely Kentavious Caldwell-Pope), it’s hard not to like Butler in this spot. He is really the only source of offense for the Bulls. I have picked the wrong Bulls’ power forward in each of the last five games. While I’m a glutton for punishment, I have had enough. I plan to have a little exposure to Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis in tournaments, but they are easy fades in cash games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jerian Grant $3,500 $3,000 0.66 16.1 -3.4 10.7 -0.8 17.3% -2.6% 20 -2.68
Paul Zipser $3,500 $3,000 0.53 15.6 4.6 8.3 5.6 14.4% 0.0% 3 0.10
Jimmy Butler $9,100 $8,600 1.12 36.7 1.0 41.2 -2.8 29.0% -4.9% 4 0.88
Bobby Portis $4,400 $5,000 0.83 13.3 9.7 11.0 10.9 17.9% 1.6% 11 0.85
Robin Lopez $4,700 $4,200 0.79 27.9 -1.4 21.9 -1.9 17.0% 6.5% 8 1.51
Nikola Mirotic $4,100 $4,600 0.83 22.8 3.0 18.9 2.8 18.8% -2.4% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler

Secondary Plays – Bobby Portis (GPP), Nikola Mirotic (GPP)

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are usually one of my least favorite teams to see on the schedule. They play at a slow pace and they have one of the best defenses in the NBA. They draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against the Bulls, who are ranked seventh in points allowed per game and third in rebounding differential. Despite all that, Detroit comes into tonight’s game with an implied total of 105.5 points, which is considerably higher than their season average.

Even with the high implied total, I have a tough time suggesting any of the Pistons’ players outside of tournaments. Ish Smith continues to outproduce Reggie Jackson, but their minutes are extremely tough to predict night in and night out. In a 12 game slate, there is no reason to get cute by targeting either of their point guards. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope could be an interesting value play on FanDuel at $5,300, but this isn’t exactly an ideal KCP spot. Marcus Morris has been the best Pistons’ forward for weeks now, but he could draw the defense of Jimmy Butler. Andre Drummond has secured at least 13 rebounds in five straight games and at least 11 rebounds in 11 straight games. The upside is massive for Drummond, as it’s only a matter of time before he puts up 20+ points to go along with those rebounds.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Reggie Jackson $5,000 $5,000 0.89 28.2 -1.8 25.0 -5.1 29.3% -0.9% 17 0.24
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $5,300 $5,800 0.72 34.2 3.8 24.7 6.3 19.8% 0.3% 15 -0.06
Marcus Morris $6,200 $6,100 0.74 33.2 2.1 24.7 9.6 20.2% 4.0% 12 1.57
Jon Leuer $4,600 $4,700 0.78 27.2 1.6 21.1 -2.9 17.4% 4.1% 21 -0.72
Andre Drummond $8,100 $8,000 1.20 30.5 0.0 36.7 0.2 22.4% 0.9% 9 0.18
Tobias Harris $5,300 $5,500 0.82 31.5 -1.0 25.8 0.9 21.6% -0.1% 21 N/A

Elite Plays – Andre Drummond (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Andre Drummond (Cash), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (FD)

Golden State Warriors at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET

Golden State Warriors Atlanta Hawks
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 215.0 atlantanba Vegas Total 215.0
Vegas Spread -5.5 Vegas Spread 5.5
Team Total 110.3 Team Total 104.8
Pace +/- 0.8 Pace +/- 4.2
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Andre Iguodala Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Kent Bazemore Thabo Sefolosha Paul Millsap Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 22 18 30 5 4 Adj. DvP 16 12 18 19 13
DRPM -2.74 -0.77 2.80 3.59 2.46 DRPM -0.13 -0.61 1.54 4.74 3.83

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, after beating the Knicks in Madison Square Garden yesterday. Surprisingly enough, they have the worst projected point differential in the entire slate at -7.3. Some of that has to do with Kevin Durant being out, but it also has to do with their matchup against the Hawks. On the season, Atlanta is ranked ninth in points allowed per game and fourth in defensive efficiency.

If you aren’t using the CourtIQ tool by this point, all hope may be lost. Kidding aside, there is no reason why you shouldn’t be taking advantage of this FREE tool every single day. When we run the query with Kevin Durant off the floor, we can see that Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson see the biggest usage boosts at 6.1% and 6.4%, respectively. Curry doesn’t really stand out in my projections, but I’m willing to overlook that for tournaments. Kyrie Irving just thrashes the Hawks on Saturday and there’s no reason why Curry can’t do the same tonight. Thompson’s price is getting expensive, but I always look to have shares of him in tournaments. Matt Barnes started yesterday against the Knicks, but only played 19 minutes. For now, Andre Iguodala is the preferred small forward to target in this offense. Draymond Green doesn’t see a big usage boost without Durant on the floor and he draws an awful matchup against Paul Millsap, who has one of the best DRPMs of any player in the NBA. I would much rather target the more consistent Dario Saric at a similar price point.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $10,500 $10,400 1.22 33.5 1.8 40.8 1.5 30.6% 4.5% 22 -2.74
Klay Thompson $7,000 $7,300 0.88 34.3 1.7 30.1 -1.9 24.3% 1.7% 18 -0.77
Andre Iguodala $4,800 $5,000 0.71 25.9 2.4 18.5 2.7 12.2% -1.7% 30 2.80
Draymond Green $8,200 $8,200 1.08 32.9 2.0 35.5 0.2 18.9% 0.7% 5 3.59
Zaza Pachulia $4,500 $4,100 0.97 18.6 -1.5 18.1 3.0 15.2% 6.0% 4 2.46
Andre Iguodala $4,800 $5,000 0.71 25.9 2.4 18.5 2.7 12.2% -1.7% 30 N/A

Elite Plays – Stephen Curry (GPP), Klay Thompson (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Stephen Curry (Cash), Klay Thompson (Cash), Andre Iguodala

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are catching the Warriors at the perfect time. Not only is Golden State missing one of its best players, but this is a back-to-back situation. The Hawks are listed as 5.5-point underdogs, but I like their chances to keep it close and potentially walk away with the upset. Atlanta has an implied total of 104.8 points, which is slightly higher than their season average of 103.7 points.

Dennis Schroder hasn’t had the breakout season that I originally predicted, but he is averaging 29.2 fantasy points per game with a true usage rate of 29.8%. He isn’t exactly a superstar point guard, so the Warriors may decide to put Stephen Curry on him, which would be a nice boost over a matchup against Klay Thompson. Kent Bazemore and Tim Hardaway both have 30+ fantasy point ceilings, but they also have ten fantasy point floors. For that reason, they are best suited as tournament plays. Thabo Sefolosha has played well in his last five games, averaging 21 fantasy points per contest. If there weren’t so many great values at small forward, I would have a ton of exposure to Thabo. Paul Millsap is cheap on DraftKings at $7,400, but he draws a matchup against Draymond Green, who has the second best DRPM of any player in the NBA. I would rather take a chance on Dwight Howard, who is $700 cheaper on DraftKings and has just as much upside.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $6,400 $6,400 0.94 31.0 1.5 29.2 0.4 29.8% -1.4% 16 -0.13
Kent Bazemore $4,600 $4,600 0.75 27.3 -0.3 20.6 -1.8 20.7% -0.4% 12 -0.61
Thabo Sefolosha $3,700 $3,900 0.71 25.9 2.0 18.5 2.4 13.9% -0.5% 18 1.54
Paul Millsap $7,700 $7,400 1.04 34.1 0.4 35.5 -0.5 24.9% 1.9% 19 4.74
Dwight Howard $7,800 $6,700 1.12 29.4 0.7 32.8 2.0 18.2% 1.5% 13 3.83
Tim Hardaway $5,500 $5,000 0.79 25.5 4.9 20.0 4.9 22.6% -0.4% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder (GPP), Dwight Howard (DK GPP)

Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder (GPP), Thabo Sefolosha, Kent Bazemore (GPP), Tim Hardaway (GPP), Paul Millsap (DK)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious