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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, December 05 - Page Two

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-12-06 01:02:30

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Charlotte at Chicago – 08:00 PM

Charlotte Chicago
charlottenba Vegas Total 195 chicagonba Vegas Total 195
Vegas Sprd 5.5 Vegas Sprd -5.5
Team Proj. 95.0 Team Proj. 100.5
Team Pace 98.32 Team Pace 99.95
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum P.J. Hairston Marvin Williams Cody Zeller Proj Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Tony Snell Nikola Mirotic Pau Gasol
Opp. Season 23 13 24 5 27 Opp. Season 7 10 14 29 21
Opp. Last 7 3 17 25 24 12 Opp. Season 24 7 30 17 26

Charlotte

Record: 10-8 — Road: 2-5 — Last 10: 6-4

The Hornets will continue to be without Al Jefferson, which will allow Cody Zeller to step into the starting lineup. The Bulls have really struggled against centers, but the Hornets still have plenty of big men and Zeller’s minutes haven’t really seen an uptick, so he’s a very risky fantasy option.

The primary beneficiaries of Jefferson’s injury should be Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum, who will pick up more usage, and Marvin Williams whose minutes become more solidified. The Bulls have struggled against PG as Derrick Rose just doesn’t have the same explosion that he did in the past. Kemba’s minutes are way up recently and he’ll be asked to shoulder a heavy load. His price point is very fair and he makes for one of the better PG targets on the day. Batum has taken on a much bigger offensive role in Charlotte than in Portland, and he’s been very good this season. The Bulls haven’t been great against SF this season, but I worry he’ll see plenty of Jimmy Butler, who is a quality defender, so Batum is more of a secondary option.

Marvin Williams is never an exciting fantasy player to roster, but his price has dipped back below $5,000 on FD so he’s a guy who should provide 20 to 25 FD points as he’ll be in line for 30+ minutes. The last player worth a brief mention is Jeremy Lamb, who has been very good off of the bench and really looks to score the ball. On a site like FD, he’s in play as a cheap second SG, but he could also see some Jimmy Butler defense.

Elite Plays

Kemba Walker

FD — $7,700— PG
DK — $7,300— PG
Min/Game — Season: 34.2 | Last Five Games: 38.8
FP/Game — Season: 32.2

Secondary Plays

Nicolas Batum

FD — $7,100— SF
DK — $7,200— SF
Min/Game — Season: 34.9 | Last Five Games: 36.0
FP/Game — Season: 31.5

Marvin Williams

FD — $4,900— PF
DK — $5,600— PF
Min/Game — Season: 31.8 | Last Five Games: 30.4
FP/Game — Season: 23.6

Chicago

Record: 11-5 — Home: 7-1 — Last 10: 7-3

The Bulls have been elite at home so far this year and are expected to pick up another win against the Al Jefferson-less Hornets. The big news to monitor here is the status of Nikola Mirotic, who is questionable with a concussion. The Bulls frontcourt is really crowded, but if Mirotic is out then it opens up some extra minutes for Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah, who become much more viable. It’s unclear who would start if Mirotic is out, but it would likely be Noah, who is very cheap. He’s played better lately and the interior defense of the Hornets is their weak link so Gasol and Noah become prime targets if Mirotic sits.

Jimmy Butler has been a little banged up and his production has dropped a little bit. A potential matchup with Nicolas Batum is also so tough so I’ll pass today. Derrick Rose has been very average and the Hornets have been very good against PG so he’s a secondary option at best.

Elite Plays

Pau Gasol (if Nikola Mirotic out)

FD — $8,100— PF
DK — $7,200— C
Min/Game — Season: 29.8 | Last Five Games: 29.6
FP/Game — Season: 35

Joakim Noah (if he starts for Mirotic)

FD — $4,400— C
DK — $4,300— C
Min/Game — Season: 21.5 | Last Five Games: 22.8
FP/Game — Season: 19.4

Secondary Plays

Derrick Rose

New York at Milwaukee – 08:30 PM

New York Milwaukee
newyorknba Vegas Total milwaukeenba Vegas Total
Vegas Sprd Vegas Sprd
Team Proj. Team Proj.
Team Pace 97.07 Team Pace 95.11
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez Proj Starter Michael Carter-Williams O.J. Mayo Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Greg Monroe
Opp. Season 8 9 27 20 16 Opp. Season 6 24 4 2 14
Opp. Last 7 11 3 17 12 23 Opp. Season 2 24 12 7 14

New York

Record: 10-10 — Road: 5-4 — Last 10: 6-4

The Knicks and Bucks will already meet for the third time this year and they split the first two meetings. The Knicks are fairly deep, but their two primary options are Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis. In two games against the Bucks, Carmelo has averaged a fairly average 20 points and 7 rebounds, while Porzingis has averaged 15 points, and 9 rebounds in only 26 minutes. Porzingis’ minutes are on the rise and he’s been terrific with three straight double-doubles. This Milwaukee defense has really fallen off defensively this year and they are dead last in rebounding so Porzingis should have another solid day on the glass. He’s getting expensive on DK, but he is still very affordable on FD. Carmelo is a solid target and should be low owned for GPP, but it’s tough to fit him in if you’re targeting guys like James Harden and Demarcus Cousins. Milwaukee is solid against the other positions and Arron Afflalo, Jose Calderon and Robin Lopez just don’t have very much upside.

Elite Plays

Kristaps Porzingis (FD)

FD — $7,300— PF
DK — $8,100— PF
Min/Game — Season: 28 | Last Five Games: 31.4
FP/Game — Season: 30.4

Carmelo Anthony

FD — $8,300— SF
DK — $8,000— SF
Min/Game — Season: 34.0 | Last Five Games: 31.5
FP/Game — Season: 36

Secondary Plays

NONE

Milwaukee

Record: 7-13 — Home: 5-4 — Last 10: 2-8

The big news here is that three of the Bucks’ PGs look like they will be out which should lead to extended minutes from Michael Carter-Williams. He’s a very volatile player, and Jason Kidd could always surprise us and play OJ Mayo or Giannis Antetokounmpo big minutes at point, but he does feature big upside and the minutes seem very secure. Jose Calderon is not a good individual defender and MCW played well against New York earlier this year with 20 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists.

The Knicks play at a slow pace and the Bucks have the second lowest point total on the day so I wouldn’t get crazy but guys like Giannis Antetokounmpo, OJ Mayo, and Khris Middleton all should see a minutes bump as well. Mayo or Antetokounmpo could also see some action at PG. Giannis has a high upside but is struggling lately, whereas Mayo is a potential punt option at SG.

Elite Plays

Michael Carter-Williams (if all 3 PG out)

FD — $5,500— PG
DK — $5,100— PG
Min/Game — Season: 27.9 | Last Five Games: 25.4
FP/Game — Season: 21.9

Secondary Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo

FD — $6,700— SG
DK — $6,700— SF
Min/Game — Season: 32.8 | Last Five Games: 28.6
FP/Game — Season: 28.8

O.J. Mayo

FD — $3,700— SG
DK — $4,400— SG
Min/Game — Season: 27 | Last Five Games: 31.6
FP/Game — Season: 16.8

Boston at San Antonio – 08:30 PM

Boston San Antonio
bostonnba Vegas Total 188 sanantonionba Vegas Total 188
Vegas Sprd 8.5 Vegas Sprd -8.5
Team Proj. 90.0 Team Proj. 98.5
Team Pace 101.37 Team Pace 96.16
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger Proj Starter Patty Mills Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan
Opp. Season 20 1 1 4 1 Opp. Season 1 21 22 16 11
Opp. Last 7 20 1 7 13 19 Opp. Season 6 26 15 16 24

Boston

Record: 11-8 — Road: 5-4 — Last 10: 6-4

This game checks in with the lowest total on the board at just 188 points and the Celtics have a team total of just 90 points. The Spurs are an elite defense across the board and allow the fewest fantasy points in the league. Their “weak” link is against PG so maybe you give Isaiah Thomas a peek, but overall this is a game to fade, especially Boston.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Isaiah Thomas

FD — $7,600— PG
DK — $7,700— PG
Min/Game — Season: 30.9 | Last Five Games: 33.6
FP/Game — Season: 33.7

San Antonio

Record: 16-4 — Home: 10-0 — Last 10: 8-2

Outside of struggling to rebound the ball, the Celtics have also been a very good defensive ball club. This game features a low total and the Spurs have been lights out at home so there is a little bit of blowout risk here too. Given the slow pace and Boston’s solid defense, there’s not a lot to like here. Boston has struggled against SF so a guy like Kawhi Leonard is on the radar, but he won’t come cheap and I’d prefer to spend up elsewhere. He does provide a nice floor so he’s a fine secondary option if you have the cap room, but I’m not going out of my way to fit him in.

Outside of Kawhi the Spurs really spread production and minutes so there’s no other stand out plays.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kawhi Leonard

FD — $8,900— SF
DK — $8,700— SF
Min/Game — Season: 34.8 | Last Five Games: 31.8
FP/Game — Season: 39.6

Indiana at Utah – 09:00 PM

Indiana Utah
indiananba Vegas Total 195 utahnba Vegas Total 195
Vegas Sprd -1.5 Vegas Sprd 1.5
Team Proj. 98.5 Team Proj. 97.0
Team Pace 99.69 Team Pace 94.88
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter George Hill Monta Ellis C.J. Miles Paul George Ian Mahinmi Proj Starter Raul Neto Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Trevor Booker
Opp. Season 9 3 6 9 2 Opp. Season 3 29 7 13 15
Opp. Last 7 17 18 3 15 2 Opp. Season 18 28 6 23 5

Indiana

Record: 12-6 — Road: 6-4 — Last 10: 8-2

The Pacers enter this one on quite the roll and although he had an off game against Portland, Paul George has played out of his mind recently. They also draw a break as the Jazz are without their top defensive presence in Rudy Gobert. They’ll still be a solid defensive team and play at a slow pace, but they aren’t quite as fearsome defensively. George should go under owned due to his price and matchup so he’s a solid GPP target, but he falls behind a few of the other upper tier options.

The Pacers do just have a team total of 98 points so there’s not much else on my radar. If Monta Ellis is ruled out then George Hill should see a usage boost, but I prefer Michael Carter-Williams in his price range.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul George

FD — $9,700— SF
DK — $9,800— SF
Min/Game — Season: 36.1 | Last Five Games: 37.6
FP/Game — Season: 42.7

Utah

Record: 8-9 — Home: 3-4 — Last 10: 4-6

With Rudy Gobert out of the lineup, Trevor Booker drew the start but only played 15 minutes. I’d expect his minutes to rise but until we see it actually occur, he’s a risky option, especially with the Pacers playing small with Paul George at PF. With Booker sliding in at PF, Derrick Favors slid to center and had a sub-par game. I still think he should see a rebounding uptick and the Pacers can be beaten on the glass so I think he makes for a high upside GPP play.

Gordon Hayward has been playing much better recently and should have more room to operate offensively with Gobert out of the lineup. However, I worry he’ll see a little too much Paul George for my liking so I’ll shy away here. Alec Burks play has really improved recently, and he should draw the softer matchup so he’d be my preferred Jazz wing, and the Pacers are 29th in DVP against SGs.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Derrick Favors

FD — $7,900— PF
DK — $7,500— PF
Min/Game — Season: 31.4 | Last Five Games:
FP/Game — Season: 42.7

Alec Burks

FD — $5,600— SG
DK — $5,200— SG
Min/Game — Season: 28.3 | Last Five Games: 28.8
FP/Game — Season: 23.6

Orlando at L.A. Clippers – 10:30 PM

Orlando L.A. Clippers
orlandonba Vegas Total 198 laclippersnba Vegas Total 198
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 98.0 Team Proj. 100.0
Team Pace 98.41 Team Pace 99.52
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Channing Frye Nikola Vucevic Proj Starter Austin Rivers J.J. Redick L. Mbah a Moute Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan
Opp. Season 11 11 18 8 19 Opp. Season 25 4 17 11 20
Opp. Last 7 1 10 21 2 29 Opp. Season 10 15 19 8 7

Orlando

Record: 11-8 — Road: 4-5 — Last 10: 7-3

The Magic have been playing very well recently and will draw a Clippers team that will be without Chris Paul. The Clippers defense has been very poor this season and they’ve particularly struggled against SF and C. It’s really tough to trust Scott Skiles as he’ll bench a player out of the blue, but Tobias Harris and Nikola Vucevic have been well recently and their minutes have been steady. Both provide solid upside at their price points, especially Vucevic who has the ability to put up big stat lines.

Evan Fournier has cooled off and Victor Oladipo is coming off the bench so the other player potentially on the radar is Elfrid Payton. He gets a nice matchup boost with Chris Paul out and Scott Skiles has trusted him lately as minutes have been steady.

Elite Plays

NIkola Vucevic

FD — $7,300— C
DK — $6,800— C
Min/Game — Season: 29.4 | Last Five Games: 30.8
FP/Game — Season: 31.5

Tobias Harris (GPP)

FD — $6,600— SF
DK — $6,200— SF
Min/Game — Season: 33 | Last Five Games: 34.4
FP/Game — Season: 28.5

Secondary Plays

Elfrid Payton

FD — $6,500— PG
DK — $6,100— PG
Min/Game — Season: 32 | Last Five Games: 33.8
FP/Game — Season: 26.1

L.A. Clippers

Record: 10-9 — Home: 8-5 — Last 10: 5-5

The big news here is that Chris Paul is out and J.J. Redick is doubtful to play. Austin Rivers should draw the start and Jamal Crawford would likely step in for Redick, although Rivers sometimes elects to keep him in his bench role. Regardless of whether he starts or comes off the bench, Crawford is a big winner here and will pick up a ton of extra usage. He’s a great value at SG if Redick is out.

With Chris Paul out, the offense will run through Blake Griffin and he makes for an elite option tonight. Orlando is solid defensively, but they are a little weak inside and Griffin should eat the Orlando PF of Channing Frye and Andrew Nicholson alive. I’ll pass on Austin Rivers as he’s not a high fantasy point per minute go and the only other guy potentially on the radar would be Deandre Jordan as a secondary option as Orlando is 20th in DVP against Centers.

Elite Plays

Blake Griffin

FD — $9,100— PF
DK — $9,000— PF
Min/Game — Season: 34.1 | Last Five Games: 34.6
FP/Game — Season: 42.3

Jamal Crawford (if J.J. Redick out)

FD — $4,200— SG
DK — $4,900— SG
Min/Game — Season: 25.9 | Last Five Games: 26.4
FP/Game — Season: 17.5

Secondary Plays

Deandre Jordan

FD — $7,200— C
DK — $7,100— C
Min/Game — Season: 31.9 | Last Five Games: 30.2
FP/Game — Season: 32.9

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About the Author

a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)