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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, December 5th

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-12-07 00:50:12

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Denver at Philadelphia – 01:00 PM

Denver Philadelphia
denvernba Vegas Total 194 philadelphianba Vegas Total 194
Vegas Sprd -2.5 Vegas Sprd 2.5
Team Proj. 98.5 Team Proj. 96.0
Team Pace 98.36 Team Pace 100.13
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Randy Foye Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried Joffrey Lauvergne Proj Starter Isaiah Canaan Jakarr Sampson Robert Covington Jerami Grant Nerlens Noel
Opp. Season 15 5 29 27 24 Opp. Season 28 30 13 23 28
Opp. Last 7 12 4 20 18 4 Opp. Season 25 13 5 26 17

Denver

Record: 7-13 — Road: 4-7 — Last 10: 2-8

This is a terrible game on paper as a sub-par Denver team heads to Philadelphia to face the NBA’s worst team. While this game is cringe worthy to watch in terms of quality basketball, there is some fantasy potential here as this game is expected to remain close and these are two very bad defenses.

As evidenced by their record, this is a very bad 76ers team and Denver is coming off of their best game of the year as they surprisingly won in Toronto. There are a few big injuries to monitor here as Gary Harris has missed the last few games with a concussion, while Kenneth Faried missed Wednesday’s game with an ankle injury. With Faried and Harris out last game, Darrell Arthur stepped in as the starting PF, while Randy Foye drew the start at SG. Joffrey Lauvergne also moved into the starting lineup at C over Nikola Jokic, so that’s another position to monitor.

While Randy Foye has been drawing the start with Harris out, the better fantasy option is Will Barton, whose minutes have come up to the 29 to 30 minutes range. He’s a high fantasy point per minute producer and he sees plenty of time at SF, where the 76ers are 29th in DVP. Darrell Arthur exploded with a monster game with Faried out on Wednesday and remains cheap around the industry. If Faried remains out, would be a premier value against the 27th ranked PF defense of the 76ers. If Faried returns, the Denver bigs become risky as Mike Malone’s rotations have been unpredictable. Joffrey Lauvergne replaced Nikola Jokic at center last game and produced a double-double in 25 minutes. If he draws another start then he’s another value option to consider with Jahlil Okafor suspended for the 76ers.

Danilo Gallinari is the one Nuggets player that is rosterable regardless of injury information as he’s been the one stable option on their team. He could see time at both SF and PF, which are both positions the 76ers struggle to guard and has flashed 40 point upside at times this year. Emmanuel Mudiay could be a secondary option if you need a cheaper PG, but he’s been struggling of late so there is certainly risk with the young rookie.

Elite Plays

Danilo Gallinari

FD — $7,000 — SF
DK — $6,800 — SF
Min/Game — Season: 34.6 | Last Five Games: 34.3
FP/Game — Season: 29.7 |

Darrell Arthur ( if Kenneth Faried is out)

FD — $4,300 — PF
DK — $4,500 — PF
Min/Game — Season: 20.6 | Last Five Games: 24.6
FP/Game — Season: 15.4 |

Will Barton (if Gary Harris is out)

FD — $5,600 — SG
DK — $5,800 — SG
Min/Game — Season: 27.1 | Last Five Games: 29.4
FP/Game — Season: 25.2 |

Secondary Plays

Joffrey Lauvergne (if he starts)

FD — $4,100 — PF
DK — $4,200 — C
Min/Game — Season: 18.6 | Last Five Games: 18.3
FP/Game — Season: 19.5 |

Philadelphia

Record: 1-19 — Home: 1-7 — Last 10: 1-9

The 76ers finally picked up their first win of the season two games against the Lakers. Now they have one of their better opportunities to pick up their second as they are just two-point underdogs to a bad Denver team.

The big news for the 76ers is that they will be without Jahlil Okafor for one more game as he serves his suspension, but they are expected to have Tony Wroten available for 12 to 14 minutes.

Even though Tony Wroten is on a minutes restriction, his return puts a damper on the prospects of Isaiah Canaan as he could see a few less minutes and Wroten has a very high usage rate. Robert Covington had a poor game against the Knicks, but has otherwise been terrific recently. The Nuggets perimeter defense has been poor, especially against SG, so this is another quality matchup. His price has risen around the industry, particularly on DK, so he’s not the must play he was a few games ago.

With Jahlil Okafor suspended, Nerlens Noel and Jerami Grant should draw the start at PF and C. Both maintain high GPP upside as they can pile up rebounds, blocks and steals, especially against the weak interior defense of the Nuggets. However, both are very volatile fantasy assets and Nerlens Noel has had a disappointing year, so while they provide big upside today, they are better suited for GPPs.

Elite Plays

Robert Covington (FD)

FD — $6,800 — SF
DK — $7,200 — SF
Min/Game — Season: 29.9 | Last Five Games: 34.2
FP/Game — Season: 27.9 |

Secondary Plays

Nerlens Noel

FD — $6,000 — PF
DK — $6,0000 — PF
Min/Game — Season: 31.4 | Last Five Games: 30.7
FP/Game — Season: 23.7 |

Jerami Grant

FD — $5,000 — PF
DK — $5,200 — SF
Min/Game — Season: 27.4 | Last Five Games: 27

Golden State at Toronto – 05:00 PM

Golden State Toronto
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 207 torontonba Vegas Total 207
Vegas Sprd -7.0 Vegas Sprd 7.0
Team Proj. 107.0 Team Proj. 100.0
Team Pace 101.68 Team Pace 96.89
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Brandon Rush Draymond Green Andrew Bogut Proj Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Luis Scola Bismack Biyombo
Opp. Season 4 18 9 17 18 Opp. Season 16 7 12 14 9
Opp. Last 7 7 22 14 25 10 Opp. Season 5 9 29 21 18

Golden State

Record: 20-0 — Road: 10-0 — Last 10: 10-0

The Warriors take their undefeated streak on the road to face the Raptors in what is expected to be a tough road test.

The Warriors will continue to be without starting SF Harrison Barnes, but otherwise look to be healthy. Without Barnes, Brandon Rush should draw the start, but Andre Iguodala is the better fantasy option, although he lacks upside.

The Raptors have been one of the NBA’s better defenses this year and the Warriors team total of 107 points is actually fairly low for them. However, this game is expected to be competitive so we could see the Warriors’ starters get a little extra run in this one. Stephen Curry is matchup proof and has been otherworldly this season. The matchup with Kyle Lowry is not ideal, but with this game expected to be close in the fourth quarter, Curry could see more like 38 minutes, which makes him an elite option. The Raptors interior defense has been sub-par and Draymond Green is playing terrific basketball right now. Toronto is also without Jonas Valanciunas and have been playing small at times, so this sets up as a game where he should see plenty of time at center. With the Warriors likely playing small, I’ll pass on Andrew Bogut as his minutes are very limited to begin with.

Curry and Green are the prime two targets as this is a very good Toronto defense, and the only other Warrior worth a look would be Klay Thompson. He’s been a disappointment this season, but his price is depressed and the Raptors are just 17th in DVP against SGs.

Elite Plays

Stephen Curry

FD — $11,100— PG
DK — $10,700— PG
Min/Game — Season: 34.3 | Last Five Games: 31.8
FP/Game — Season: 48.5 |

Draymond Green

FD — $8,100 — PF
DK — $8,000 — PF
Min/Game — Season: 33.7 | Last Five Games: 33.6
FP/Game — Season: 35.9 |

Secondary Plays

Klay Thompson

FD — $5,900 — SG
DK — $6,300 — SG
Min/Game — Season: 31.4 | Last Five Games: 30.7
FP/Game — Season: 25

Toronto

Record: 12-8 — Home: 4-3 — Last 10: 5-5

Toronto finds themselves as seven-point home underdogs as they take on the NBA’s elite team. They are getting a solid pace bump and with the record-setting Warriors coming to town, I expect a wild Toronto crowd.

Toronto will continue to be without their starting center, Jonas Valanciunas, and Bismack Biyombo should continue to draw the start. He was productive initially, but his minutes are on the decline so he’s a risky option today.

The Warriors are middle of the pack in points allowed as they play at a fast pace, but their other defensive metrics are all top notch, so they’re a team I typically don’t target heavily. Their biggest weakness defensively has been opposing PG so Kyle Lowry is the one Raptor that is a top option today. He’s one of the better cash game options around as he stuffs the stat sheet and can pile up 40 fantasy points even if he is shooting the ball poorly.

DeMar Derozan and DeMarre Carroll draw tough defensive matchups with Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala so they’re not great targets as DeRozan is scoring dependent and Carroll is in a big shooting slump. I think Toronto could go small here and Bismack Biyombo’s minutes have been on the decline so I’ll avoid the Toronto bigs as no one is playing big minutes. They have started to play a small ball lineup with Cory Joseph seeing extended minutes of late. He’s topped 20 FD points in three straight and his minutes are way up so he’s a secondary value option.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry

FD — $8,800— PG
DK — $8,700— PG
Min/Game — Season: 35.5 | Last Five Games: 36.0
FP/Game — Season: 39.6 |

Secondary Plays

Cory Joseph

FD — $4,500 — PG
DK — $4,300 — PG
Min/Game — Season: 25.9 | Last Five Games: 29.2
FP/Game — Season: 18.7

Cleveland at Miami – 08:00 PM

Cleveland Miami
clevelandnba Vegas Total miaminba Vegas Total
Vegas Sprd Vegas Sprd
Team Proj. Team Proj.
Team Pace 95.96 Team Pace 95.87
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Matthew Dellavedova J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov Proj Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside
Opp. Season 2 2 23 6 12 Opp. Season 12 14 11 3 3
Opp. Last 7 16 21 27 1 6 Opp. Season 28 11 2 9 8

Cleveland

Record: 13-6 — Road: 4-5 — Last 10: 5-5

LeBron will head back to Miami to face a tough Miami defense and the Cavs will look to correct their road woes as they’ve been much better at home this season.

The Cavs look to be fully healthy heading into this one, but this is a very tough Miami defense that they will have to deal with. They are projected to score just 94 points so this is a spot to tread lightly. LeBron James is always on the fantasy radar as he carries a very high fantasy floor, and there is the return to Miami narrative. The Heat’s weakness on defense is SF but I prefer other high end options like Stephen Curry, James Harden and Demarcus Cousins if I’m spending $10,000. The same applies to Kevin Love, who has been very good this year, but draws a tough matchup with a Miami defense that is 6th in DVP against PF. Love did pour in 24 points, 14 rebounds and 5 assists in a home matchup against Miami earlier this year, while LeBron had 29 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

LeBron James

FD — $10,000— SF
DK — $10,000— SF
Min/Game — Season: 39.2 | Last Five Games: 36.9
FP/Game — Season: 45.5

Kevin Love

FD — $8,200— PF
DK — $8,600— PF
Min/Game — Season: 34.3 | Last Five Games: 33.8
FP/Game — Season: 36

Miami

Record: 11-6 — Home: 9-3 — Last 10: 7-3

Outside of the LeBron returning to Miami narrative, this is a matchup that isn’t overly appealing from a fantasy perspective as both of these teams play very good defense and don’t play fast offensively.

With Luol Deng out, Gerald Green will likely draw another start and Justice Winslow should see solid run. However, as we saw last game, Green is a very volatile asset so he’s a GPP only punt option and Winslow’s offensive usage is very low. The Cavaliers rank in the top 15 in DVP against every position so no Heat player draws a great matchup. Dwyane Wade has played very well over his last two games so he’d be my preferred target from the Miami side of the ball. He had a productive night in the first meeting between these teams with 25 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Dwyane Wade

FD — $7,200— SG
DK — $7,000— SG
Min/Game — Season: 29.8 | Last Five Games: 29.4
FP/Game — Season: 30.5

Portland at Minnesota – 08:00 PM

Portland Minnesota
portlandnba Vegas Total minnesotanba Vegas Total 203
Vegas Sprd Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. Team Proj. 102.5
Team Pace 98.00 Team Pace 99.13
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Noah Vonleh Mason Plumlee Proj Starter Ricky Rubio Kevin Martin Andrew Wiggins Kevin Garnett Karl-Anthony Towns
Opp. Season 17 8 8 10 13 Opp. Season 13 22 2 22 29
Opp. Last 7 14 29 8 10 15 Opp. Season 15 8 10 27 25

Portland

Record: 8-12 — Road: 3-7 — Last 10: 4-6

Portland is a pretty easy team to break down as they have two guys in Damian Lillard and C. J. McCollum who play big minutes and get all the offensive usage. Ricky Rubio has never been known as an elite defender and Lillard has been an offensive force this season. He’s topped 40 FD points in seven of his last nine games and is an elite option at PG. McCollum is the other Portland player that is very dependable. He gets a ton of minutes and always gets plenty of offensive usage. Andrew Wiggins is a quality defender but he also could see some of Kevin Martin, who is a below average defender.

Outside of the Portland guards, things are lot murkier as their front court minutes have become unpredictable. Minnesota’s front court defense has been solid this year so there’s no real need to take the risk here.

Elite Plays

Damian Lillard

FD — $9,500— PG
DK — $8,900— PG
Min/Game — Season: 36.6 | Last Five Games: 33.8
FP/Game — Season: 39.6 |

Secondary Plays

C. J. McCollum

FD — $6,900 — SG
DK — $6,600— SG
Min/Game — Season: 35.1 | Last Five Games: 36.0
FP/Game — Season: 29.6

Minnesota

Record: 8-10 — Home: 2-7 — Last 10: 4-6

This is a solid matchup for Minnesota but they’ve become a team that is not fantasy friendly as they’re playing a 10 man rotation with equally divided minutes. Andrew Wiggins was the only player to top 30 minutes last game, which is not what we want to see from a fantasy perspective. He’s really picked it up offensively lately and is by far the safest option from Minnesota.

Ricky Rubio has been dealing with an ankle injury but returned last game and now has had a few days to rest. Theoretically, he should be feeling better and Damian Lillard has never been known for his defense. His price point is down and he does feature triple double upside so he’s a GPP option, but is risky for cash games as he’s not playing very well right now. The Portland interior is very exploitable but Minnesota has oddly really been limiting Karl-Anthony Towns minutes so he’s a large field GPP only option at best. Gorgui Dieng has been the guy to pick up the slack as his minutes and production are way up over the past five games, and has provided better value than Towns lately. It’s still always concerning to roster a bench player, especially with a talented player like Towns ahead of him, but he’s playing very well right now.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Andrew Wiggins

FD — $7,400 — SG
DK — $7,300— SG
Min/Game — Season: 35.2 | Last Five Games: 36.8
FP/Game — Season: 29.9

Ricky Rubio

FD — $6,900— PG
DK — $6,600— PG
Min/Game — Season: 29.8 | Last Five Games: 27
FP/Game — Season: 29.5 |

Gorgui Dieng

FD — $4,600— C
DK — $4,500— C
Min/Game — Season: 21.2 | Last Five Games: 27.2
FP/Game — Season: 18.9 |

Sacramento at Houston – 08:00 PM

Sacramento Houston
sacramentonba Vegas Total houstonnba Vegas Total
Vegas Sprd Vegas Sprd
Team Proj. Team Proj.
Team Pace 102.22 Team Pace 99.78
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Rajon Rondo Ben McLemore Rudy Gay DeMarcus Cousins Kosta Koufos Proj Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Clint Capela Dwight Howard
Opp. Season 21 15 28 30 17 Opp. Season 24 28 21 28 26
Opp. Last 7 9 2 11 28 21 Opp. Season 30 16 16 29 22

Sacramento

Record: 7-13 — Road: 2-6 — Last 10: 4-6

This is the DFS game to target on the night as both the Kings and Rockets play at a very fast pace, but also play very little defense. It checks in with a total of 219 points and a spread of only 2 so it’s a game to load up on.

Omri Casspi missed the last game due to sickness but is expected to return tonight and also could join the starting lineup as Willie Cauley-Stein is out. George Karl could also go with Kosta Koufos here so you’ll have to monitor the news, but the pace of the game suits Casspi better. If he does draw the start, he’s an elite value play against his former team. If the Kings do start Casspi then Rudy Gay would slide to the PF and draw a favorable matchup against a Rockets defense that is 30th in DVP against PFfs. I’d lean towards the value with Casspi as there is a guy named DeMarcus Cousins for the Kings that I want to spend. With the Kings potentially going small he should gobble up rebounds, and although Dwight Howard is a quality defender, Cousins is matchup proof. The Rockets are 19th against Centers on the season and Cousins is one of the elite options on the day, along with James Harden.

Casspi and Cousins are likely my prime targets here, but Rajon Rondo is also in a great spot. He does a somewhat tougher matchup as the Rockets have moved Patrick Beverley into the starting lineup. However, Beverley’s defense has fallen off a bit and the pace of this game should allow Rondo to rack up his peripheral rebound and assist numbers.

Elite Plays

DeMarcus Cousins

FD — $10,300— C
DK — $10,800— PF
Min/Game — Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 32
FP/Game — Season: 45.3 |

Rajon Rondo

FD — $8,000— PG
DK — $8,800— PG
Min/Game — Season: 35.2 | Last Five Games: 30.8
FP/Game — Season: 36.5 |

Omri Casspi (if he starts)

FD — $4,200— SF
DK — $4,700— SF
Min/Game — Season: 26.6 | Last Five Games:
FP/Game — Season: 20.9 |

Secondary Plays

Rudy Gay

FD — $7,000— SF
DK — $7,100— SF
Min/Game — Season: 32.1 | Last Five Games: 31.2
FP/Game — Season: 29.8 |

Houston

Record: 9-11 — Road: 5-7 — Last 10: 5-5

The Rockets check in with the top team total on the day at 110 points and James Harden is my favorite high-end play of the day. The Kings have struggled against the SG position for several years now and this year is no different as they are 28th in DVP. Their defensive metrics are terrible across the board and Harden has already torched them for 43 points, 6 rebounds, and 13 assists once this season.

Dwight Howard sat out last night’s game so he should be ready to roll tonight and play his normal allotment of minutes. He’s not the same player in the past but he can still rack up rebounds and blocks, and given the Kings weak defense, he could get easier buckets inside tonight. With Howard returning, Clint Capela becomes a much riskier play as Terrence Jones is starting to play better, and the Rockets play small at times (especially if the Kings start Casspi).

If you’re looking for cheaper exposure to this game then along with a guy like Casspi, Trevor Ariza and Patrick Beverley are potential options. Ariza is locked into big minutes and finally shot the ball better last night. Beverley has regained his starting spot and is still dirt cheap around the industry. He’s hit 5x value in five straight games so he’s provided solid value. He doesn’t get heavy usage as the offense runs through James Harden and he has been unsustainably hot from 3 so he’s just a secondary option for me.

Elite Plays

James Harden

FD — $10,800— SG
DK — $10,500— SG
Min/Game — Season: 39.4 | Last Five Games: 40.2
FP/Game — Season: 48.4 |

Secondary Plays

Dwight Howard

FD — $7,800— C
DK — $7,000— C
Min/Game — Season: 33 | Last Five Games:
FP/Game — Season: 32.8 |

Trevor Ariza

FD — $5,800— SF
DK — $5,300— SF
Min/Game — Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 36.8
FP/Game — Season: 23.9 |

Patrick Beverley

FD — $3,900— PG
DK — $4,400— PG
Min/Game — Season: 21.5 | Last Five Games: 29.6
FP/Game — Season: 14.7 |

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About the Author

a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)