Sign In $

NBA Grind Down: Saturday, December 12 - Page Two

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-12-13 05:39:36

grind%20down%20article%20faq

San Antonio at Atlanta – 08:00 PM

San Antonio Atlanta
sanantonionba Vegas Total 191 atlantanba Vegas Total 191
Vegas Sprd -3.5 Vegas Sprd 3.5
Team Proj. 97.3 Team Proj. 93.8
Team Pace 95.75 Team Pace 98.15
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan Proj Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Thabo Sefolosha Paul Millsap Al Horford
Opp. Season 19 15 16 17 21 Opp. Season 17 1 1 2 1
Opp. Last 7 25 1 30 22 6 Opp. Season 6 11 5 2 2

San Antonio

Record: 19-5 — Road:7-5 — Last 10:8-2

TBD – POP

This is the 2nd end of a road back to back so you’ll need to monitor the status of guys like Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili. Tony Parker rested last night so I’d expect to see him back in the lineup tonight. Tim Duncan only played 20 minutes, while Manu Ginobili only played 5 last night, so we could see both tonight. Assuming the Spurs are at full health, they are a difficult team to target as they really spread the ball around.

Kawhi Leonard remains the elite option to target on San Antonio and draws a favorable matchup against an Atlanta team that is 18th in DVP against the SF. These two teams met earlier this year and he produced a solid outing (22/7/2/1/1), while Tim Duncan erupted (10/18/4/1/2). The Hawks really struggle to rebound the ball so if Duncan suits up then he’s a very intriguing tournament option. If he were to sit then LaMarcus Aldridge becomes an elite option, although he’s a secondary option at best if Duncan does play.

Elite Plays

Kawhi Leonard

FD — $8,500 — SF
DK — $8,600 — SF
Min/Game — Season: 33.4 | Last Five Games: 30
FP/Game — Season: 38.3 |

Secondary Plays

Tim Duncan

FD — $6,500 — C
DK — $6,000 — C
Min/Game — Season: 26.7 | Last Five Games:
FP/Game — Season: 26.7 |

LaMarcus Aldridge (elite if Tim Duncan is out)

FD — $7,100 — PF
DK — $6,900 — PF
Min/Game — Season: 29.5 | Last Five Games: 28.6
FP/Game — Season: 29.9 |

Atlanta

Record: 14-10 — Home: 8-4 — Last 10: 5-5

I avoid the Spurs like the plague as they are the NBA’s elite defense allowing the fewest points per game as well as the fewest fantasy points per game. These two teams met around two weeks ago in San Antonio and the Spurs locked the Hawks down for only 88 points. The Hawks will have the benefit of playing at home in this one, but all of the Hawks starters disappointed, and the Hawks are ranked in the top 2 in DVP against every position but PG. Tony Parker is the one weak link defensively so Jeff Teague would be the only player worth a brief peek.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Jeff Teague

FD — $6,800 — PG
DK — $6,700 — PG
Min/Game — Season: 30.3 | Last Five Games: 32.0
FP/Game — Season: 29.7 |

Washington at Dallas – 08:30 PM

Washington Dallas
washingtonnba Vegas Total dallasnba Vegas Total
Vegas Sprd Vegas Sprd
Team Proj. Team Proj.
Team Pace 101.2 Team Pace 98.91
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter John Wall Brad Beal Otto Porter Jared Dudley Marcin Gortat Proj Starter Deron Williams Raymond Felton Wesley Matthews Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia
Opp. Season 21 6 6 26 8 Opp. Season 7 30 30 10 4
Opp. Last 7 12 9 8 28 15 Opp. Season 8 30 2 12 8

Washington

Record: 9-12 — Road: 5-5 — Last 10: 3-7

Bradley Beal (Q)
Kris Humphries (Q)
Nene Hilario (O)
Drew Gooden (Q)

The Mavericks have been improved defensively this season and the Wizards’ team total is right in line with their season total so this is a neutral matchup. The big question to monitor here is the status of Bradley Beal, who was a late scratch last night. The Wizards have been frustrating to deal with from an injury reporting status this year so they’re a team you need to be careful with. In Beal’s absence, Garrett Temple drew the start and played 28 minutes, while Gary Neal also played 26 minutes. The Mavericks wing defense has really improved with the addition of Wesley Matthews so I’ll likely just avoid the situation altogether as there is more secure value elsewhere.

John Wall is playing out of his mind right now, and will have to shoulder a heavy load if Beal sits. He’s produced 49 or more FD points in five of his last seven games, and PG is the weakness of Dallas’ defense. Due to the Wizards’ widespread injuries in their front court, Otto Porter and Marcin Gortat have seen a minutes boost recently. If their frontcourt remains thin then both should continue to see solid minutes, although both are secondary options as neither has an elite matchup.

Elite Plays

John Wall

FD — $9,500 — PG
DK — $9,300 — PG
Min/Game — Season: 34.8 | Last Five Games: 38.2
FP/Game — Season: 39.2 |

Secondary Plays

Marcin Gortat

FD — $6,300 — C
DK — $6,200 — C
Min/Game — Season: 29.4 | Last Five Games: 33
FP/Game — Season: 26.7 |

Otto Porter

FD — $5,600 — SF
DK — $5,900 — SF
Min/Game — Season: 32.6 | Last Five Games: 34
FP/Game — Season: 24 |

Dallas

Record: 13-10 — Home: 5-4 — Last 10: 4-6

Chandler Parsons (minutes limit)

The Mavericks’ team total of 107 is 2nd highest on the day, and 6.2 points higher than their season average. The Wizards play at a fast pace and are below average defensively so they are a team to target. Their primary weakness is their defense against opposing wingmen so both Wesley Matthews and Raymond Felton draw elite matchups. Matthews is the preferred target of the two as his minutes restriction has been lifted and he’s averaging 37 MPG over his last five contests. Felton should continue to start as long as “(player-popup)Chandler Parsons”:/players/chandler-parsons-13319’ remains on a minutes restiction. The return of J.J. Barea and Devin Harris is somewhat concerning so he’s more of a secondary value. However, despite their return, he still logged 30 minutes last game and continued to reach value at his low price.

Deron Williams has revived his career in Dallas, but this is a tough matchup with John Wall. His price is still very low on DK , but overall he’s probably more of a secondary target. Dirk Nowitki should be able to get whatever shot he wants against the smaller Jared Dudley. He’s playing more minutes this year and can still really score the ball. The primary problem with Dirk is that due to his recent play, his price is on the rise so that there’s not much potential for him to exceed value. Lastly, like the rest of the Mavs, Zaza Pachulia is also playing inspired basketball, and has been a great rebounder. He draws the toughest matchup out of the Mavs though as Marcin Gortat is a very good interior defender.

Elite Plays

Wesley Matthews

FD — $5,500 — SG
DK — $5,300 — SG
Min/Game — Season: 31.3 | Last Five Games: 37.0
FP/Game — Season: 20.7 |

Secondary Plays

Deron Williams

FD — $7,100 — PG
DK — $6,600 — PG
Min/Game — Season: 33.4 | Last Five Games: 38.4
FP/Game — Season: 29.3 |

Dirk Nowitzki

FD — $7,200 — PF
DK — $6,900 — PF
Min/Game — Season: 30.2 | Last Five Games: 32.0
FP/Game — Season: 31.0 |

Raymond Felton

FD — $4,500 — PG
DK — $4,500 — SG
Min/Game — Season: 27.4 | Last Five Games: 35.2
FP/Game — Season: 18.0 |

Zaza Pachulia

FD — $6,400 — C
DK — $6,100 — C
Min/Game — Season: 29.1 | Last Five Games: 32.2
FP/Game — Season: 26.6 |

Golden State at Milwaukee – 08:30 PM

Golden State Milwaukee
goldenstatenba Vegas Total milwaukeenba Vegas Total
Vegas Sprd Vegas Sprd
Team Proj. Team Proj.
Team Pace 101.74 Team Pace 95.29
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Brandon Rush Draymond Green Andrew Bogut Proj Starter O.J. Mayo Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe
Opp. Season 10 10 26 23 9 Opp. Season 16 5 15 15 12
Opp. Last 7 18 17 18 21 1 Opp. Season 17 6 29 18 24

Golden State

Record: 24-0 — Road: 14-0 — Last 10: 10-0

Klay Thompson (Q)
Harrison Barnes (O)

The big injury that we’re all waiting on is the status of Klay Thompson, who is listed as questionable for this one. Ian Clark drew the start last night and while the Warriors struggled without Klay, they still came through with the win and remain undefeated. Clark proved to be fool’s gold last night and the primary beneficiaries in Klay’s absence were Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Andre Iguodala. Curry continues to be other worldly and is an elite play regardless of matchup. Milwaukee is hurting at PG and none of O.J. Mayo, Michael Carter-Williams or Greivis Vasquez (if he returns), stand much of a chance of slowing Steph.

The Bucks have particularly struggled against SF and PF, so if Klay sits, then both Andre Iguodala and Draymond Green are elite options. Green went wild last night as he flashed insane upside due to his increased offensive role. Iguodala also saw some extra usage with Klay out and remains cheap around the industry. If Klay returns, Green takes a slight hit but remains an elite option as he can contribute in so many categories, whereas Iggy would take a much bigger hit.

Due to their injuries on the wing, the Warriors didn’t play as much small ball last night so their centers logged 51 minutes. Last night, Festus Ezeli was the primary beneficiary over Andrew Bogut, but it’s a tough situation to predict on a nightly basis. Both could be cheap GPP options if Klay is out as Milwaukee’s interior defense is very poor. If Klay is given a clean bill of health, then he remains too cheap on FD and can be considered in all formats. Lastly, Shaun Livingston would also see a boost if Klay sits. His minutes are up recently as he’s averaging 25 MPG over his last five contests, and he produced 23 FD points last night.

Elite Plays

Stephen Curry

FD — $11,000 — PG
DK — $10,700 — PG
Min/Game — Season: 34.9 | Last Five Games: 36.8
FP/Game — Season: 48.8 |

Draymond Green

FD — $8,100 — PF
DK — $8,200 — PF
Min/Game — Season: 34.7 | Last Five Games: 38
FP/Game — Season: 37.1 |

Secondary Plays

Andre Iguodala (elite option if Klay Thompson is out)

FD — $4,900 — SF
DK — $5,200 — SF
Min/Game — Season: 28.2 | Last Five Games: 30
FP/Game — Season: 22.1 |

Shaun Livingston (if Klay Thompson is out)

FD — $3,500 — PG
DK — $3,400 — PG
Min/Game — Season: 20.8 | Last Five Games: 25.6
FP/Game — Season: 12 |

Milwaukee

Record: 9-15 — Home: 7-5 — Last 10: 3-7

Jerryd Bayless (D)
Greivis Vasquez (Q)

The big injury situation to watch with the Bucks is the status of their PG, particularly Vasquez, who is supposedly getting closer to a return. Due to the injury situation at PG, O.J. Mayo has drawn the start at PG and has played 35 MPG over his past five. His price is on the rise on DK but he’s still very cheap on FD, and a solid value option if Vasquez remains out as Curry is not a great defender.

The Warriors are actually very good defensively, but due to their pace of play, they aren’t a terrible team to target. The interior defense of the Warriors is very strong though so I’ll stay away from Jabari Parker and Greg Monroe. However, they have struggled against SF and Klay Thompson is an elite defender at SG, so if he sits, then both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton get a nice matchup boost. I’ll give the edge to Giannis as he contributes in more categories. He also is a guy who is more suited to a fast paced environment so he could thrive in this matchup.

Elite Plays

h4.Giannis Antetokounmpo

FD — $6,800 — SG
DK — $6,500 — SF
Min/Game — Season: 33.0 | Last Five Games: 34.2
FP/Game — Season: 29.1 |

Secondary Plays

O. J. Mayo (borderline elite on FD if Vasquez is out)

FD — $4,800 — SG
DK — $5,600 — SG
Min/Game — Season: 29.7 | Last Five Games: 35.2
FP/Game — Season: 20.1 |

Khris Middleton

FD — $5,500 — SF
DK — $5,200 — SG
Min/Game — Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 37.8
FP/Game — Season: 24.1 |

New York at Portland – 10:00 PM

New York Portland
newyorknba Vegas Total 198 portlandnba Vegas Total
Vegas Sprd 3.5 Vegas Sprd
Team Proj. 97.3 Team Proj.
Team Pace 97.18 Team Pace 97.57
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez Proj Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Noah Vonleh Mason Plumlee
Opp. Season 11 22 3 22 30 Opp. Season 9 21 7 4 16
Opp. Last 7 3 20 13 13 23 Opp. Season 24 12 19 20 11

New York

Record: 10-14 — Road: 5-7 — Last 10: 2-8*

NONE

The Knicks don’t have any injury situation to monitor, but due to their recent struggles they are rumored to be thinking of a lineup change, so you’ll have to monitor the news coming out of New York. This is the late game so we may not have news as to any change, but the thought is that Robin Lopez could head to the bench in favor of Lance Thomas. In that scenario, Thomas could be a potential value but at this point it is just speculation. Porzingis would slide to center and is the way to go regardless of whether he starts at PF or C. Portland’s interior defense has been very weak as they are 24th against PF and 29th against C. Outside of duds against Milwaukee and Utah, he’s continued to be very good, and his price actually dropped on FD. He’s still somewhat expensive on DK, but he’s an elite option on FD.

Carmelo Anthony finally came through with a big outing against the Kings, and could also be helped by the Knicks moving to a smaller lineup as his rebounding numbers could see a boost. He does draw the one elite Portland defender in Al-Farouq Aminu so he’s a secondary option given the matchup. However, his price is very affordable so he’s a guy who is on the tournament radar. The rest of the Knicks like Jose Calderon and Arron Afflalo really lack upside and aren’t great fantasy options.

Elite Plays

Kristaps Porzingis (secondary option on DK)

FD — $6,700 — PF
DK — $7,600 — PG
Min/Game — Season: 27.7 | Last Five Games: 26.0
FP/Game — Season: 29.2 |

Secondary Plays

h4.Carmelo Anthony

FD — $8,100 — SF
DK — $7,800 — SF
Min/Game — Season: 34.0 | Last Five Games: 33.2
FP/Game — Season: 35.2 |

Portland

Record: 10-14 — Road: 5-5 — Last 10: 5-5*

NONE

The Knicks aren’t a great defensive team but they play at a very slow pace and have not been a good team to target for fantasy purposes. If they do move to a smaller lineup, we could see that change, but right now they are a team to tread lightly against.

Portland’s entire offense runs through their guards C. J. McCollum and Damian Lillard, and they are by far the safest targets on Portland. They both see a ton of minutes and get all the minutes they can handle. Jose Calderon is not a good individual defender, however the Knicks’ team defense has been good against PG as they are 9th in DVP. I could see Lillard working over Calderon here, but with some high end options like Stephen Curry and John Wall, as well as some potential value in the Houston game, he’s a secondary option on tonight’s slate. C. J. McCollum draws the better matchup as the Knicks are 21st in DVP against SG. I don’t mind him tonight, but he’s in a similar boat as Lillard in that there are other options higher on my list.

Outside of the Portland guards, the Portland frontcourt can be very risky. Terry Stotts really rotates minutes at PF and C so it’s tough to trust any of their bigs. Ed Davis arguably has the most upside but he comes off the bench and his minutes are not secure so he’s a tournament only option. Al-Farouq Aminu has come down to earth and draws a tough assignment in Carmelo Anthony so foul trouble is a potential concern.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Damian Lillard

FD — $9,300 — PG
DK — $8,800 — PG
Min/Game —Season: 36.8 | Last Five Games: 36.7
FP/Game — Season: 39.1 |

C. J. McCollum

FD — $7,200 — SG
DK — $6,900 — SG
Min/Game —Season: 35.1 | Last Five Games: 34.8
FP/Game — Season: 30.7 |

Jump to Page 1 2

About the Author

a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)