NBA Grind Down: Saturday, December 9th

by Travis Mangone (Mangone) Last Updated 2017-12-10 15:43:34

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Washington Wizards at Los Angeles Clippers – 3:30 PM ET

Washington Wizards							Los Angeles Clippers
			Vegas Total		207.5					Vegas Total		207.5
			Vegas Spread		-2.5					Vegas Spread		2.5
			Implied Team Total		105.0					Implied Team Total		102.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.2					Pace Projection +/-		-1.1
Projected Starters	Tim Frazier	Bradley Beal	Otto Porter	Markieff Morris	Marcin Gortat		Projected Starters	C.J. Williams	Austin Rivers	Wesley Johnson	Danilo Gallinari	DeAndre Jordan
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	11	30	22	16	21		DvP	12	3	25	3	16
DRPM Rat.	17	28	10	9	17		DRPM Rat.	6	19	1	11	12

Washington Wizards

John Wall is starting to get healthy but will not be back for this game. The Wizards are coming off consecutive wins and are facing a Clippers team that is going through a four game losing streak. The Clippers are 22nd in points allowed per game and 27th in defensive efficiency. They are clearly a bad team, and I expect the Wizards to take advantage of them.

Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Kelly Oubre and Markieff Morris are all benefiting from the absence of John Wall. With only two games on the early slate, I would make sure to get exposure to a couple of them. I am listing them all as either elite or secondary plays but my favorite play would be Bradley Beal. We likely will have a ton of value on the Nets side of the ball so paying up for him makes a ton of sense here. Don’t be afraid to pair him up with Otto Porter as he is also an elite play. Oubre and Markieff are more secondary options for me, but certainly have upside at their price tags. I wouldn’t play the two of them together because they eat into each others production on the second unit, but it is a two game slate and I have seen crazier things.

Notable Injuries John Wall (out)

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 106.2 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.0 (9 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -1.2 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.5 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (18 of 30)

Elite Plays – Bradley Beal, Otto Porter

Secondary Plays – Markieff Morris

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers draw a matchup against the Wizards without John Wall for the early slate. This Clippers team is not great and the return of Gallinari will help but not enough to make a difference. Surprisingly, the Clippers are only two point underdogs in a game with a 207.5 total. Blake Griffin is still out and there is some value on a two game slate that we can take advantage of.

There is not a lot to pay for, so I will certainly be looking to roster Lou Williams who has high upside on any night as long as he’s knocking down shots. DeAndre Jordan recently signed an agent and seems like he is planning to find his way out of town. If I was trying to get traded, you better believe I would be selfish and be trying to have massive games. In Jordan’s last five games, he is averaging 35 DraftKings points and is only $7100. I think he is an elite play and someone you should get exposure to. I also think Austin Rivers is a great guard option as well. Rivers has shot 14 or more shots in the last six games and has upside here at $6300. The last player I will mention is Wesley Johnson as a secondary value play on the early slate. All year I have been attacking the Wizards at the small forward position because they are ranked in the bottom five at defending the position. If you need him as a cheap option I don’t mind him here, but I don’t think you will need him as a value play.

Notable Injuries Blake Griffin and Patrick Beverley (out)

Los Angeles Clippers Offense

Points Per Game: 105.0 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.5 (11 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -2.5 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (17 of 30)

Elite Plays – Lou Williams

Secondary Plays – DeAndre Jordan and Austin Rivers

Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets – 6:00 PM ET

Miami Heat							Brooklyn Nets
			Vegas Total		212.5					Vegas Total		212.5
			Vegas Spread		-2.0					Vegas Spread		2.0
			Implied Team Total		107.3					Implied Team Total		105.3
			Pace Projection +/-		4.8					Pace Projection +/-		-1.5
Projected Starters	Goran Dragic	Dion Waiters	Josh Richardson	James Johnson	Kelly Olynyk		Projected Starters	Spencer Dinwiddie	Allen Crabbe	DeMarre Carroll	Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	Tyler Zeller
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	26	18	28	25	28		DvP	10	13	14	22	7
DRPM Rat.	8	24	4	24	15		DRPM Rat.	27	20	5	14	13

Miami Heat

The Miami Heat go into this game having lost their last two games and are still without Hassan Whiteside. They are two point road favorites in a game with a 212 total. The Nets are ranked third in pace which is great for a Heat team that is 20th. On top of that, the Nets allow the second most points per game and are ranked in the bottom ten in defensive efficiency.

Any team that plays the Nets will draw my interest in fantasy and despite how bad Goran Dragic has been, this could be the get right spot for him. Dragic is $6500 but is only averaging 20 DraftKings points per game in his last four games. Josh Richardson, James Johnson and Kelly Olynyk are all fine plays on the Heat but my favorite play is going to be Dion Waiters for only $6000. He has upside at this price and draws a matchup against a team that doesn’t play a ton of defense. This is a great tournament spot for a guy who will chuck up a ton of shots and if he knocks them down he will hit a massive ceiling. If I picked a big man on the Heat side of the ball it would be Kelly Olynyk who has shown a ton of consistency recently and is seeing an uptick in minutes.

Notable Injuries Hassan Whiteside (out)

Miami Heat Offense

Points Per Game: 100.2 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.3 (3 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 7.1 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets

Points Allowed Per Game: 111.5 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.8 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.3 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.8 (3 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dion Waiters ( tournaments only)

Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic, James Johnson and Kelly Olynyk

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets had a big win the other night against the Oklahoma City Thunder and have won their last two games. This team lost Jeremy Lin and D’angelo Russell and are still finding ways to win games. They recently traded Trevor Booker for Nik Stauskas and Jahlil Okafor but I do not expect them to play in this game. The Heat are ranked 20th in pace and are two point favorites against the Nets.

With Booker being shipped out of town, there is value to be had on the Nets side of the ball. Caris Levert is running backup point guard right now and is a great play at only $5400. He is seeing a huge usage bump with the second unit and with Booker gone I expect him to have a big game. If you need value, Jarrett Allen is fine but I don’t think you will need him. I would rather round my roster out with Spencer Dinwiddie, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Demarre Carroll as they are all starters who have secure minutes in this shortened rotation. The loss of Booker certainly gives them a boost and they are good options to mix and match in your early slate lineups. The slower pace makes me less inclined to roster Nets here but I don’t mind using them to fill out your lineups.

Notable Injuries D’Angelo Russell (out) Nik Stauskas and Jahlil Okafor (not with team )

Brooklyn Nets Offense

Points Per Game: 109.4 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.3 (7 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -4.2 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.4 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.4 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – Caris Levert

Secondary Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Demarre Carroll

Los Angeles Lakers at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Lakers							Charlotte Hornets
			Vegas Total		213.5					Vegas Total		213.5
			Vegas Spread		5.0					Vegas Spread		-5.0
			Implied Team Total		104.3					Implied Team Total		109.3
			Pace Projection +/-		1.1					Pace Projection +/-		5.2
Projected Starters	Lonzo Ball	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	Brandon Ingram	Larry Nance	Brook Lopez		Projected Starters	Kemba Walker	Nicolas Batum	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Marvin Williams	Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	13	21	29	12	5		DvP	25	22	11	20	26
DRPM Rat.	15	9	7	13	9		DRPM Rat.	4	6	20	4	10

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are fresh off a big road win against the Sixers, who were at full strength in their last match up. The Lakers face a struggling Hornets team that is banged up and looking to end their two game losing streak. The Lakers are 5 point underdogs and are going up against the 9th paced team in the league. Vegas expects points to be scored in this game, but I think I prefer the Hornets side of the ball more than the Lakers.

The Hornets are ranked dead last against the Small Forward position which means Brandon Ingram is my favorite Laker to get exposure to. Ever since his big game against the Warriors he has scored 38 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games. His recent price hike is tough to roster, but the way he is playing and the matchup make him a great tournament play. I would correlate Ingram with the Hornets frontcourt if I was game stacking.

The Kuzma, Randle, Nance and Lopez roulette wheel is not one I am looking to spin on this slate. If I did play any Lakers here it would be Julius Randle where I can get him cheap. Lonzo Ball is almost always in play especially at his price throughout the industry. He has tournament winning upside at that price and I wouldn’t mind getting tournament exposure to him. KCP is getting pricey throughout the industry and although he plays a pile of minutes I don’t think he is a great play. There are other shooting guards that I would prefer to roster on this slate. Since that is the case, Jordan Clarkson is also someone I am not as interested in. He will draw the second unit defense but his minutes are trending downward with only 20 and 14 minutes in his last two games.

Notable Injuries None

Los Angeles Lakers Offense

Points Per Game: 105.8 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (10 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -1.6 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.2 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.3 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.1 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – Brandon Ingram

Secondary Plays – Julius Randle

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets are not only banged up but on a two game losing streak after suffering a loss to the Chicago Bulls in Overtime. This is the second night of a back to back for the Hornets but in a matchup against the Lakers who are ranked in pace, this is a great spot to load up on Hornets.

Yesterday was Dwight Howard birthday so hopefully he didn’t party hard too late last night after his massive 70+ fantasy point outing. We took a stroll down narrative street last night for the birthday narrative so why not go back to the well with a little revenge against the Lakers. Everyone knows Dwight and the Lakers don’t get along and I would expect him to really prove himself tonight in this matchup. It also helps that Frank Kaminsky and Cody Zeller are both hurt. Coach Clifford said last night that Howard and Marvin were going to be forced to play big minutes against Chicago. Howard played 43 and Marvin played 39 minutes in a game that went to overtime. Not only do they go from playing the slowest paced team in the league but now they get a top five team paced team! I would expect them to play a ton of minutes and they are elite plays for me.

Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum are also good options on this slate. Batum is still fairly priced and is a good option. Walker gets a great matchup today, and coming off a poor performance against the Bulls I think we can go back to the well here at lower ownership. It just depends on if your construction allows you to pay that much for a point guard. I don’t think Kemba fits my builds today, so I will make him a secondary option and likely get my exposure to the Hornets through their frontcourt.

Notable Injuries Jeremy Lamb, Frank Kaminsky, Cody Zeller (out)

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 104.6 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (2 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 4.7 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.1 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.2 (1 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dwight Howard, Marvin Williams

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum

Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET

Orlando Magic							Atlanta Hawks
			Vegas Total		212.5					Vegas Total		212.5
			Vegas Spread		2.0					Vegas Spread		-2.0
			Implied Team Total		105.3					Implied Team Total		107.3
			Pace Projection +/-		0.4					Pace Projection +/-		2.7
Projected Starters	Elfrid Payton	Arron Afflalo	Jonathon Simmons	Mario Hezonja	Nikola Vucevic		Projected Starters	Dennis Schroder	Kent Bazemore	Taurean Prince	Ersan Ilyasova	Miles Plumlee
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	16	24	27	26	22		DvP	29	29	16	28	12
DRPM Rat.	30	2	19	3	9		DRPM Rat.	20	13	30	21	5

Orlando Magic

The Magic are struggling but they come in and draw a matchup against a banged up Hawks team that is one of the worst teams in the league. The Hawks are ranked 25th in points allowed per game, 24th in defensive efficiency, and 29th in rebound differential. With Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon and Terrance Ross out there is a lot of value with this Magic team that we can take advantage of. This is a great spot to target some Magic players that are under priced throughout the industry.

When we look at the Hawks, it is obvious to attack them at all positions but they struggle on the boards and for $8300 Nikola Vucevic is an elite play on this slate. I know I talked about Dwight as an elite center option, but Vucevic is one as well. With Fournier out I expect his price to continue to rise and I will ride that out until it is too expensive. Vucevic has been impressive recently putting up at least 59 DraftKings points in two of his last three games!

Elfrid Payton was bad the other day which may keep people off him, but at $6800 he is still an elite play for me. This matchup is also a juicy one against Dennis Schroder defense. He has improved throughout the year but at this price I will continue to buy him. Jonathon Simmons is another great value play that should see a lot of time with all of Orlando’s injuries. For only $5700 on DraftKings, he is a steal for someone that looks locked into 35-40 minutes. Aaron Gordon played 45 minutes on Friday night and all of those need to be allocated to bench players. I think Afflalo should see more run but be on the look out Saturday to see who starts in Gordon’s place. Picking the right Orlando options is going to be key on this slate.

Notable Injuries Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon and Terrence Ross (out)

Orlando Magic Offense

Points Per Game: 107.5 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.3 (7 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -2.3 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.6 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.8 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.8 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.4 (12 of 30)

Elite Plays – Nikola Vucevic, Elfrid Payton and Johnathon Simmons

Secondary Plays – Arron Afflalo

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks get a matchup against a banged up Orlando team who will be without Gordon, Fournier and Ross. They are also missing some bench players and are probably looking to get a win after losing in overtime to Orlando earlier in the week. The Magic are a great team to pick on night in and night out as they are ranked 6th in pace, 28th in points allowed per game, 22nd in defensive efficiency and 27th in rebounding differential. This all adds up to a ton of fantasy points and with the Hawks banged up as well we can take advantage of some cheap options. This is a great game to stack up on this slate with a 215 total.

Dennis Schroder is $7900 but for good reason. He is averaging 35.6 DraftKings points per game and has shot 24 or more shots in two of his last three games. Schroder has a usage rate of 29.2% in this offense and draws a phenomenal matchup against the Magic who are ranked second to last at defending opposing point guards. There are other options to like on the Hawks here especially on the wing. The two main guys are Bazemore and Prince who are priced in the mid $5K range and both have 40 point upside. I like mixing them in your game stacks because of the upside they can have here. With Collins, Dedmon and Muscala out, there are opportunities to be had in the front-court. Luke Babbitt is also questionable which paves the way for Ersan Ilyasova to be the biggest beneficiary. I expect him to get a ton of run against Vucevic defense and for only $4800 this makes him a cheap way to get good exposure to this game. If Babbitt plays, he could be an interesting play but it seems the biggest bump in the front-court goes to Ersan and he is still too cheap for the opportunity and matchup.

Notable Injuries Dewayne Dedmon, Mike Muscala, John Collins (out)

Atlanta Hawks Offense

Points Per Game: 102.8 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.3 (3 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 4.5 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Orlando Magic

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.8 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.7 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.7 (6 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder and Ersan Ilyasova

Secondary Plays – Kent Bazemore and Taurean Prince

New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET

New York Knicks							Chicago Bulls
			Vegas Total		200.0					Vegas Total		200.0
			Vegas Spread		-4.0					Vegas Spread		4.0
			Implied Team Total		102.0					Implied Team Total		98.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.7					Pace Projection +/-		-1.3
Projected Starters	Jarrett Jack	Courtney Lee	Lance Thomas	Kristaps Porzingis	Enes Kanter		Projected Starters	Kris Dunn	Justin Holiday	Denzel Valentine	Lauri Markkanen	Robin Lopez
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	24	20	23	21	13		DvP	27	12	13	5	8
DRPM Rat.	10	8	25	22	27		DRPM Rat.	10	20	15	18	21

New York Knicks

The Knicks need a win here to get one game above .500 and they draw the Bulls on a second night of a back-to-back. The Bulls are ranked third to last in defensive efficiency but despite that the Knicks are only four point road favorites. This game is projected at a 200.5 total and is not one that looks appealing in terms of DFS plays. This is one of the lower totals and against the 23rd ranked team in the league in pace. Tim Hardaway Jr. is still out, so there are still some viable value plays that we can take advantage of.

Tim Hardaway Jr. is out for a couple of weeks and although options like Jack and Lee seem safe we still have to worry because of Jeff Hornacek. He runs random rotations and minutes which can cause a ton of issues for trying to predict fantasy outcomes. I personally will just stay away from this backcourt situation because of the unpredictability from the Knicks coach. There are better value plays on this slate and I don’t feel the need to mess around with this situation. Kristaps Porzingis is seeing a 29.5% usage with the Knicks and without Hardaway Jr. he will gain another bump in usage making him a great play for only $8400. The Bulls are ranked in the bottom ten in rebounding differential while the Knicks are second in the league. This is a cheap price for Porzingis and in this matchup he should thrive. Other than Porzingis, I am staying away from these Knicks. I said it before and I will say it again, there is enough value on this slate that I don’t need to guess what Hornacek is going to do so I will just play the good value plays and move on.

Notable Injuries Tim Hardaway Jr.

New York Knicks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.8 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.0 (12 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -1.8 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.1 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.0 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kristaps Porzingis

Secondary Plays – None

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls are a team that I have not been playing but their pace has increased and they are becoming healthier which is clearly making them a better team. This is a second half of a back-to-back for Chicago and they are coming off an overtime win. I am not in love with playing underdogs in a 200.5 total, but I do think there are some interesting plays on the Bulls side of the ball that we can consider.

Now I am not saying to roster all of these Bulls on the same team but at their price tags I think the following are really interesting plays. Kris Dunn ($5900), Lauri Markkanen ($5500), Justin Holiday ($5500), Denzel Valentine ($5300) are all too cheap and have upside here. Now we can’t play them all together but if I had to rank them I would make Markkanen and Dunn my elite plays and Holiday and Valentine as secondary options. The return of Mirotic and Portis have cut into Markkanen’s production a little but for only $5500 he is averaging 28.6 DraftKings points and playing 29.3 minutes per game. Kris Dunn is only $5900 and averaging 30.2 minutes and 35.6 DraftKings points in his last five games. Dunn also has a team high 23.7% usage and gets a matchup against the fourth worst team at defending opposing point guards. Dunn is way too cheap and is cash and tournament viable. Holiday and Valentine make for great pivots off the two that I discussed above in tournaments. They have upside at that price and will be good contrarian pivots at a similar price. This is also a revenge game for Justin Holiday who is a former Knick and should want to show them why they should of paid him over Tim Hardaway Jr.

Notable Injuries Zach Lavine (out)

Chicago Bulls Offense

Points Per Game: 95.7 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.0 (15 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 2.3 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. New York Knicks

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.3 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.4 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (19 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kris Dunn and Lauri Markkanen (draftkings specific)

Secondary Plays – Justin Holiday

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