NBA Grind Down: Saturday, November 4th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Clippers – 3:30 PM ET
| Memphis Grizzlies | Los Angeles Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
| Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -3.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Mario Chalmers | Andrew Harrison | James Ennis | Jarell Martin | Marc Gasol | Projected Starters | Patrick Beverley | Austin Rivers | Danilo Gallinari | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 11 | 19 | 15 | 13 | 18 | DvP | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 7 | |
| DRPM | 1.89 | -1.78 | 0.38 | 0.41 | 3.57 | DRPM | N/A | 0.17 | 1.40 | 1.38 | 0.84 | |
Memphis Grizzlies
Notable Injuries Marc Gasol (Questionable) and JaMychal Green)
Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 100.4 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 8)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 8)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.1 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.0 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (18 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Chalmers | $4,300 | 18.6 | 23.2 | 0.80 | 19.1% 41.6% | 11 | 1.89 | |||
| Andrew Harrison | $3,100 | 10.4 | 18.4 | 0.57 | 15.9% 45.4% | 19 | -1.78 | |||
| James Ennis | $4,100 | 19.5 | 29.2 | 0.67 | 11.3% 64.9% | 15 | 0.38 | |||
| Jarell Martin | $4,200 | 17.6 | 23.3 | 0.76 | 12.3% 47.8% | 13 | 0.41 | |||
| Marc Gasol | $8,400 | 40.9 | 34.4 | 1.19 | 23.7% 58.4% | 18 | 3.57 | |||
| Tyreke Evans | $6,100 | 27.7 | 25.3 | 1.10 | 25.1% 57.9% | N/A | N/A | |||
| Mario Chalmers | $4,300 | 18.6 | 23.2 | 0.80 | 19.1% 41.6% | N/A | N/A | |||
| Dillon Brooks | $3,800 | 18.6 | 29.2 | 0.64 | 13.1% 52.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Tyreke Evans (IF Marc Gasol is out)
Secondary Plays – None
Last time the Grizzlies played, Chalmers and Evans became extreme value plays when Mike Conley was ruled out. Conley is not on the injury report but Marc Gasol is and he is considered questionable. If he doesn’t play, I don’t have interest in any of the bench options for Memphis. I would only play Conley and Gasol together and bring them back with some of the viable Clippers plays. If Gasol doesn’t play, there are some places to look for value on the Grizzlies. Tyreke Evans (albeit a small sample size of just 96 minutes) has a 34.4% usage rate and 1.37 fpt/min without Gasol on the court with him. Tyreke isn’t afraid to shoot the ball and would be an elite option if Gasol is out with that kind of usage. Conley, oddly enough, doesn’t see a huge bump in usage and also has a tough matchup against the defense of Patrick Beverley.
Brandan Wright would be the likely replacement for Gasol. Normally we worry about Wright’s minutes but last game he saw 27 minutes and he’d be a good value play at his current price. I also wouldn’t mind taking a look at Martin if Gasol is out due to increased minutes.
Los Angeles Clippers
Notable Injuries None
Los Angeles Clippers Offense
Points Per Game: 109.0 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 8)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 8)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.3 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.2 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.3 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.9 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Beverley | $5,600 | 26.6 | 30.4 | 0.87 | 17.6% 59.4% | 16 | N/A | |||
| Austin Rivers | $4,600 | 20.8 | 30.6 | 0.68 | 17.2% 50.5% | 4 | 0.17 | |||
| Danilo Gallinari | $6,100 | 26.2 | 34.1 | 0.77 | 18.6% 48.9% | 4 | 1.40 | |||
| Blake Griffin | $9,000 | 40.4 | 33.6 | 1.20 | 26.3% 60.7% | 8 | 1.38 | |||
| DeAndre Jordan | $7,400 | 32.5 | 31.6 | 1.03 | 11.1% 57.0% | 7 | 0.84 | |||
| Lou Williams | $4,600 | 21.9 | 21.7 | 1.01 | 25.5% 59.3% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Blake Griffin and Patrick Beverley
The Clippers are not fans of the Memphis squad and I would expect players like DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin to get motivated for this game. Memphis, likewise, has no love lost for the Clippes as they gave away flip flops to the first 5,000 fans to mock the Clippers for flopping! That said I would not want to load up on the Clippers as they are facing a Grizzlies team that is 26th in pace. If I were to roster anyone it would be Griffin because of his 30.9% usage and 1.19 fpts/minute. He will also be guarded by the likes of Jarell Martin who will have trouble defending against the All-Star power forward.
The other two options that I have interest in would be Patrick Beverley and Danilo Gallinari. Conley is not the same defender he once was and the Grizzlies are merely 18th in the league against opposing point guards. Beverley is averaging 27 FanDuel fpts/game and is only $5,600 which will provide you some salary relief. Gallo is a guy who is popping in models for me and feels too cheap. The more I think about it though, I am going to pass until he shows he is capable of doing something meaningful. He’s struggled to reach 5x all season long and that is not what I am looking for when trying to win a GPP. DeAndre Jordan is one last option that some might consider but he is a full fade for me against a Grizzlies team that is the 5th best team against opposing big men (especially if Gasol plays). There are other centers that I would prefer to play on this slate.
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Sacramento Kings at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET
| Sacramento Kings | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197.0 |  | Vegas Total | 197.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 9.0 | Vegas Spread | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 94.0 | Implied Team Total | 103.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.0 | Pace Projection +/- | -3.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | George Hill | Garrett Temple | Bogdan Bogdanovic | Zach Randolph | Willie Cauley-Stein | Projected Starters | Reggie Jackson | Avery Bradley | Stanley Johnson | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 8 | 10 | 23 | 14 | 5 | DvP | 19 | 16 | 2 | 18 | 30 | |
| DRPM | -2.98 | -1.13 | 0.19 | -0.53 | 1.37 | DRPM | 0.60 | -0.33 | N/A | -1.06 | 1.06 | |
Sacramento Kings
Notable Injuries George Hill (Out)
Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Per Game: 93.1 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 94.0 (8 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 0.9 ( of 8)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.1 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.1 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.6 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.3 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hill | $4,200 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 16.9 | 27.6 | 0.61 | 16.7% | 54.2% | 8 | -2.98 |
| Garrett Temple | $3,400 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 16.4 | 23.0 | 0.71 | 15.4% | 55.0% | 10 | -1.13 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | $4,100 | $4,500 | $8,400 | 20.3 | 24.3 | 0.83 | 18.9% | 53.0% | 23 | 0.19 |
| Zach Randolph | $4,600 | $5,200 | $9,400 | 21.5 | 23.4 | 0.92 | 23.2% | 45.4% | 14 | -0.53 |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | $4,700 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 23.6 | 26.1 | 0.90 | 14.8% | 53.5% | 5 | 1.37 |
| De’Aaron Fox | $5,600 | $5,200 | $10,900 | 25.6 | 27.0 | 0.95 | 26.0% | 45.0% | N/A | N/A |
| Skal Labissiere | $4,700 | $4,700 | $8,800 | 21.5 | 22.3 | 0.97 | 19.7% | 55.0% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Zach Randolph (Fanduel)
The Kings have a paltry 93.75 team total which I believe is the lowest on the season. I’m not being lazy but I don’t think any one is worth talking about as a viable option and I think you can fade the team as a whole. If I did want to take a chance on anyone from the Kings it would be DeAaron Fox and that’s mainly because I’d be buying on a young and talented player with upside at his price who will play no matter what the score is. George Hill was also ruled out which should give Fox a bigger bump. The Hill news could also make Buddy Hield a more viable option if you need some salary saves and Zach Randolph at $4,600 has a chance at this price tag to do something – but neither Hield or Randolph are must plays.
Detroit Pistons
Notable Injuries Jon Leuer (Out)
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 104.4 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.0 (5 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -1.4 ( of 8)
Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.2 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -7.5 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.4 (29 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Jackson | $6,400 | $6,300 | $13,500 | 32.5 | 28.8 | 1.13 | 27.2% | 55.0% | 19 | 0.60 |
| Avery Bradley | $5,500 | $5,300 | $10,400 | 23.4 | 30.9 | 0.76 | 20.9% | 49.7% | 16 | -0.33 |
| Stanley Johnson | $4,500 | $3,900 | $8,100 | 18.7 | 30.8 | 0.61 | 13.1% | 49.8% | 2 | N/A |
| Tobias Harris | $6,700 | $6,400 | $12,700 | 29.8 | 32.7 | 0.91 | 23.3% | 57.9% | 18 | -1.06 |
| Andre Drummond | $9,400 | $8,100 | $15,000 | 40.6 | 32.8 | 1.24 | 16.3% | 53.9% | 30 | 1.06 |
| Ish Smith | $3,900 | $3,500 | $6,900 | 17.1 | 19.3 | 0.88 | 24.7% | 52.6% | N/A | N/A |
| Anthony Tolliver | $3,100 | $3,100 | $6,000 | 15.1 | 18.6 | 0.81 | 15.9% | 52.2% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Andre Drummond
Secondary Plays – Stanley Johnson
The Pistons total isn’t much higher than the Kings as the game total is 196.5. The one good thing the Pistons do is run tight rotations so we know where we are going to get our minutes from. Reggie Jackson, Avery Bradley, Stanley Johnson, and Andre Drummond are all in play because of their playing time. My favorite of this group is easily Drummond because the Kings allow the most fantasy points to opposing centers in the league this season. He has played against Cauley-Stein twice and have averaged 14.5 points and 14 rebounds in those two contests. The Kings also play at a slow pace which benefits Drummond – I expect a massive game from him here.
You can pair Andre with Jackson if you want but that’s not necessary on this slate. I do not want to go overboard on this game because of the low total and a more obvious game that I’ll be stacking. If you told me I had to play a Piston other than Drummond though it would be Stanley Johnson as he plays at a weak small forward position and is a cheap option that gives you some roster flexibility.
New Orleans Pelicans at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET
| New Orleans Pelicans | Chicago Bulls | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200.5 |  | Vegas Total | 200.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -6.5 | Vegas Spread | 6.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.5 | Implied Team Total | 97.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -3.8 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jrue Holiday | E’Twaun Moore | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | DeMarcus Cousins | Projected Starters | Jerian Grant | Justin Holiday | David Nwaba | Lauri Markkanen | Robin Lopez | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 25 | 11 | 22 | 25 | 24 | DvP | 4 | 24 | 28 | 26 | 9 | |
| DRPM | 0.45 | 0.32 | 0.41 | N/A | 0.24 | DRPM | 1.40 | -1.63 | -0.47 | 3.65 | 0.57 | |
New Orleans Pelicans
Notable Injuries Rajon Rondo and Solomon Hill (Out)
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 107.1 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.5 (4 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -3.6 ( of 8)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.7 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.5 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jrue Holiday | $7,200 | $6,700 | $13,000 | 32.0 | 37.1 | 0.86 | 19.6% | 52.8% | 25 | 0.45 |
| E’Twaun Moore | $4,400 | $4,100 | $8,700 | 19.9 | 31.7 | 0.63 | 13.1% | 59.7% | 11 | 0.32 |
| Dante Cunningham | $3,300 | $3,500 | $7,300 | 14.8 | 28.2 | 0.53 | 9.7% | 36.6% | 22 | 0.41 |
| Anthony Davis | $11,800 | $11,200 | $20,300 | 53.1 | 35.0 | 1.52 | 25.9% | 62.4% | 25 | N/A |
| DeMarcus Cousins | $12,000 | $11,600 | $22,000 | 62.3 | 37.7 | 1.65 | 29.1% | 61.3% | 24 | 0.24 |
| Jameer Nelson | $3,800 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 15.6 | 25.7 | 0.61 | 13.4% | 51.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis
Secondary Plays – Jrue Holiday
Boogie and Brow have been absolute fantasy monsters this season as they average nearly 120 DraftKings fpts/game between the two of them. The Bulls are a bad team and if you have the salary to pay for these two, you should have at least one of them in your lineup. The debate is going to be how do they fit into your roster. On FanDuel, it’s easier to make it work but it’s much more difficult on DK where you may miss some elite plays from the Warriors/Nuggets game. I think it is important to get at least one of these two in your lineups though so find a way to make it work. The Bulls are ranked in the bottom third of the league against opposing bigs so it’s a strong matchup as well. I lean Davis, but both are great plays and if you can find a way to get both of them in your lineup it’ll make for a contrarian GPP lineup.
Jrue Holiday gets a great matchup against a Bulls team that is 25th against opposing point guards and also gets to face off against his brother Justin Holiday. While they won’t be guarding one another, I’m sure they will want to outdo one another. He also is a good price, especially on DK where he is only $6,700. E’Twaun Moore is in consideration if you need a cheap option that is likely to play 30+ minutes. He also has some incentive facing off against his former team.
Chicago Bulls
Notable Injuries Nikola Mirotic
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 90.0 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 97.0 (7 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 7.0 ( of 8)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.0 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.4 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerian Grant | $4,600 | $5,000 | $8,700 | 25.1 | 29.2 | 0.86 | 19.5% | 44.2% | 4 | 1.40 |
| Justin Holiday | $5,600 | $5,900 | $10,900 | 25.7 | 35.7 | 0.72 | 20.9% | 43.8% | 24 | -1.63 |
| David Nwaba | $4,600 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 16.6 | 18.9 | 0.88 | 10.4% | 62.5% | 28 | -0.47 |
| Lauri Markkanen | $7,000 | $6,600 | $12,600 | 30.4 | 32.5 | 0.94 | 19.8% | 59.8% | 26 | 3.65 |
| Robin Lopez | $6,100 | $5,400 | $10,100 | 29.3 | 31.1 | 0.94 | 21.3% | 55.1% | 9 | 0.57 |
| Kris Dunn | $5,400 | $4,900 | $9,300 | 26.6 | 25.8 | 1.03 | 24.5% | 38.2% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – David Nwaba
The Bulls are starting to get healthy as Kris Dunn is back and his return hurts the guard value we were taking advantage of. Chicago has a team total of 97.25 so I’m not looking to play anyone from their team for this slate. If I did, I would look to a value option like David Nwaba who has 60.2 FanDuel fpts over his last two games, both starts. He is not a guy I am in love with but does provide some reasonable value on a small slate. The Pelicans are also ranked 28th in the league against opposing small forwards.
Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET
| Dallas Mavericks | Minnesota Timberwolves | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.5 |  | Vegas Total | 213.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 13.0 | Vegas Spread | -13.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.3 | Implied Team Total | 113.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Dennis Smith | Devin Harris | Wesley Matthews | Harrison Barnes | Dirk Nowitzki | Projected Starters | Jeff Teague | Jimmy Butler | Andrew Wiggins | Taj Gibson | Karl-Anthony Towns | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 28 | 20 | 19 | 10 | 25 | DvP | 17 | 30 | 1 | 24 | 26 | |
| DRPM | -0.24 | 1.86 | -2.73 | 2.10 | -1.71 | DRPM | N/A | 0.46 | 0.25 | -0.08 | 0.81 | |
Dallas Mavericks
Notable Injuries Seth Curry (out)
Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Per Game: 98.2 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.3 (6 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 2.1 ( of 8)
Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Points Allowed Per Game: 113.1 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 111.0 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.2 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.8 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Smith | $5,600 | $5,100 | $10,500 | 22.8 | 28.1 | 0.81 | 24.7% | 45.7% | 28 | -0.24 |
| Devin Harris | $3,900 | $3,500 | $7,200 | 15.3 | 17.5 | 0.88 | 22.5% | 54.1% | 20 | 1.86 |
| Wesley Matthews | $5,000 | $4,800 | $10,300 | 22.4 | 34.0 | 0.66 | 15.3% | 60.4% | 19 | -2.73 |
| Harrison Barnes | $6,100 | $5,800 | $11,500 | 26.7 | 34.8 | 0.77 | 21.4% | 48.4% | 10 | 2.10 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | $5,100 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 21.8 | 25.3 | 0.86 | 19.9% | 50.6% | 25 | -1.71 |
| J.J. Barea | $4,000 | $4,300 | $8,300 | 21.8 | 22.8 | 0.96 | 26.4% | 52.3% | N/A | N/A |
| Nerlens Noel | $4,000 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 18.3 | 19.2 | 0.95 | 12.1% | 65.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dennis Smith Jr.
Secondary Plays – J.J. Barea and Dirk Nowitzki
Dennis Smith Jr. has been impressive so far and draws a great matchup against Minnesota – they are ranked 28th against opposing point guards. I love his price around the industry and think this could be his biggest game of the season. He hasn’t had any favorable matchups yet but that changes today. He’s only shooting .388 from the field and is due for some positive regression as he was a .455 shooter in college.
I also have interest in J.J. Barea as a value option because of the same match up. Lastly, I want to touch on Dirk Nowitzki. He is not a guy I target often but there are times where his price is too cheap and the matchup is just right. This is one of those spots as Towns struggles to defend the outside and the Twolves are ranked 25th against opposing centers. Just to show an example of what I am talking about – Channing Frye scored 39 points in two games against Minnesota last season. I love the idea of Dirk having a throwback game here and is a great value play with upside in GPPs.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Notable Injuries None
Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 108.8 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.3 (2 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 4.5 ( of 8)
Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.3 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 111.5 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -6.2 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (27 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Teague | $6,800 | $6,300 | $13,400 | 30.8 | 32.7 | 0.94 | 20.5% | 55.0% | 17 | N/A |
| Jimmy Butler | $8,300 | $7,500 | $13,900 | 33.0 | 37.3 | 0.89 | 20.5% | 53.3% | 30 | 0.46 |
| Andrew Wiggins | $6,500 | $6,900 | $13,700 | 29.6 | 35.7 | 0.83 | 23.1% | 50.0% | 1 | 0.25 |
| Taj Gibson | $4,700 | $4,200 | $8,300 | 22.0 | 29.4 | 0.75 | 11.2% | 58.4% | 24 | -0.08 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $9,800 | $8,800 | $16,700 | 41.5 | 33.4 | 1.24 | 21.0% | 63.8% | 26 | 0.81 |
| Jamal Crawford | $3,800 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 17.9 | 20.5 | 0.87 | 21.7% | 56.8% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns
Secondary Plays – Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson
The Wolves have been a disappointment thus far, especially Jimmy Butler. He has had a slow start and an illness but has shown signs of life lately averaging 36.15 DK fpts/game over his last three. He’s only $7,500 and draws a matchup against a Mavericks team that is last against opposing shooting guards. Last year against Dallas Butler put up a 24-12-9 line. It was a different situation but the spot is great for Butler to have his biggest outing of the season. Dirk will have trouble trying to guard Towns down low making him an option we should be getting exposure to. Dallas is 26th against opposing centers and are last in rebounding. Towns should dominate and at $8,800 on DK is too cheap. Taj Gibson provides a cheaper option to attack the awful Dallas bigs at just $4,200. He’s not a sexy option but has shown some upside recently. My biggest worry is he could lose playing time if Dallas decides to go small.
Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 PM ET
| Golden State Warriors | Denver Nuggets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 229.5 |  | Vegas Total | 229.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -8.5 | Vegas Spread | 8.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 119.0 | Implied Team Total | 110.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.2 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | Zaza Pachulia | Projected Starters | Jamal Murray | Gary Harris | Wilson Chandler | Paul Millsap | Nikola Jokic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 20 | 8 | 26 | 22 | 2 | DvP | 12 | 25 | 16 | 21 | 28 | |
| DRPM | -1.82 | -2.44 | -1.73 | 3.29 | 2.00 | DRPM | 0.24 | -0.91 | 1.35 | 5.08 | 3.61 | |
Golden State Warriors
Notable Injuries None
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 121.0 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 119.0 (1 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -2.0 ( of 8)
Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.8 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.7 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | $9,200 | $9,500 | $18,900 | 46.0 | 33.1 | 1.39 | 28.2% | 68.8% | 20 | -1.82 |
| Klay Thompson | $6,900 | $7,000 | $13,300 | 33.1 | 34.2 | 0.97 | 20.9% | 62.4% | 8 | -2.44 |
| Kevin Durant | $10,000 | $10,300 | $19,300 | 46.6 | 36.4 | 1.28 | 23.9% | 65.7% | 26 | -1.73 |
| Draymond Green | $7,600 | $7,200 | $15,300 | 31.4 | 30.6 | 1.03 | 14.6% | 53.5% | 22 | 3.29 |
| Zaza Pachulia | $3,000 | $3,200 | $6,200 | 12.4 | 14.6 | 0.85 | 11.5% | 50.6% | 2 | 2.00 |
| Andre Iguodala | $4,300 | $3,800 | $7,100 | 16.3 | 26.6 | 0.61 | 9.6% | 49.9% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Steph Curry, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green
Secondary Plays – Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala
This is the game of the day as it comes in with a massive 228 total. This isn’t a hot take but your winnings will go down and you won’t win a tournament if you don’t have exposure to this game. Of the big four, the one I am not interested in is Klay Thompson because Gary Harris is a tough defender and the Nuggets are 8th against opposing shooting guards. Draymond Green will also have his hands full with Paul Millsap and Nikola Jokic but the Nuggets are just 22nd in the league against opposing power forwards giving us reason to love Draymond – especially considering how cheap his price is around the industry and how much he thrives in pace up games like this one is expected to be. It’s the kind of game where he’ll get a triple-double and you’ll be smiling all the way to the bank.
Kevin Durant should be a matchup nightmare for the Nuggets and he should be able to have his way here. With small forward being such a weak position, you’re going to need him in your lineup. Andre Iguodala is a cheap option and I don’t hate pairing him up with Durant in tournaments. The last guy I want to talk about is Curry who is one of my top point guard options today. He has a true usage of 28.2% and is averaging 1.39 fpts/minute. In a high paced game against a team that struggles against defending opposing point guards (while doing well against shooting guards), I expect a lot of production to be funneled to Curry and him having a big game. He’s still too cheap on both sites and I love his upside.
Denver Nuggets
Notable Injuries None
Denver Nuggets Offense
Points Per Game: 107.1 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.5 (3 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 3.4 ( of 8)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 114.1 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.3 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.9 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.7 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | $5,400 | $5,400 | $11,500 | 22.2 | 25.9 | 0.86 | 24.6% | 51.0% | 12 | 0.24 |
| Gary Harris | $5,700 | $5,300 | $10,900 | 25.2 | 32.2 | 0.78 | 16.5% | 62.3% | 25 | -0.91 |
| Wilson Chandler | $4,500 | $4,500 | $8,700 | 19.6 | 30.1 | 0.65 | 12.6% | 50.1% | 16 | 1.35 |
| Paul Millsap | $7,200 | $6,800 | $13,000 | 30.5 | 31.1 | 0.98 | 20.6% | 51.5% | 21 | 5.08 |
| Nikola Jokic | $9,500 | $8,500 | $16,900 | 39.2 | 32.0 | 1.22 | 19.9% | 61.8% | 28 | 3.61 |
| Will Barton | $5,200 | $5,500 | $10,600 | 26.2 | 27.3 | 0.96 | 21.6% | 54.2% | N/A | N/A |
| Emmanuel Mudiay | $4,500 | $4,400 | $8,500 | 20.5 | 21.6 | 0.95 | 25.5% | 51.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Nikola Jokic and Gary Harris
Secondary Plays – Jamal Murray
The Warriors should struggle to stop Nikola Jokic who gets to face a mistfit of center options and occasionally Draymond. Golden State is ranked 28th against opposing centers and Jokic has 50 fpt games in three of his last four. At $8,500, he’s the top option on Denver. Millsap is still cheap but I worry about his matchup as I expect him to see a lot of Draymond and Durant – it’s best to get your Nuggets exposure via other options.
The Warriors have surprisingly struggled against shooting guards this season and Gary Harris instantly comes to mind in a fast-paced game where he can thrive in transition and pick up peripheral stats. He’s a nice value play on this slate and Will Barton makes for a nice contrarian option. The same goes for Wilson Chandler but he has been bad this year so I tend to want to stay away from him until he starts to play better. This could be the game where it happens but I am going to continue to wait for him to prove it to me. Jamal Murray has true usage of 24.6%, has nice correlation with Jokic, and is a nice value play. Recency bias should keep his ownership low after a poor outing against Miami in his last game.