NBA Grind Down: Saturday, October 21st

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2017-10-22 13:31:44

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers							Toronto Raptors
			Vegas Total		214.5					Vegas Total		214.5
			Vegas Spread		9.0					Vegas Spread		-9.0
			Implied Team Total		102.8					Implied Team Total		111.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.8					Pace Projection +/-		4.4
Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	Jerryd Bayless	J.J. Redick	Robert Covington	Joel Embiid		Projected Starters	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	Norman Powell	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent DRPM	0.62	-2.21	-1.29	0.84	0.71		Opponent DRPM		-0.47	-1.80	4.38	2.30

Philadelphia 76ers

Notable Injuries

Joel Embiid (Out – Rest)

Please note that this game is NOT on the DraftKings main slate, as they have excluded it since it starts 30 minutes prior to any other game.

The Sixers will be an entertaining squad to watch this year, but their news must always be monitored, especially on the tail end of back-to-back sets. The good is that Brett Brown is usually forthcoming with the newsworthy items, so we generally have plenty of time to plan. Joel Embiid is going to rest tonight on the tail end of a back-to-back, which is no surprise given that he has played healthy minutes in the first two games. Embiid’s absence tonight should open up a few more minutes for Dario Saric and Amir Johnson, while Jahlil Okafor will likely get into the rotation for the first time. Saric is an interesting GPP option given the upside he has shown in the past, though this isn’t a great matchup against a Raptors team that doesn’t look to push the pace. Robert Covington is a boom-or-bust option that is dependent on scoring for his fantasy value. He’s a better play on DraftKings and FantasyDraft than on FanDuel with a massive price differential, but remember that this game is not on the DK main slate.

In the backcourt, top pick Markelle Fultz is being brought along slowly by the Sixers. It appears that the team is content to roll with Jerryd Bayless as the starter right now, and he is a reasonable low-end option at point guard as long as he remains this affordable. He won’t carry a ton of usage, especially since Ben Simmons will often run the offense. Simmons put up an 11/11/5 line in a whopping 37 minutes on Friday, and he is definitely a high upside tournament option despite a difficult matchup. Don’t take the risk with J.J. Redick at this point.

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.0 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 94.0 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.2 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.8 (14 of 30)

Elite Plays – Ben Simmons (GPP), Robert Covington (DK & FDRAFT)

Secondary Plays – Ben Simmons (cash), Robert Covington (FD), Dario Saric

Toronto Raptors

Notable Injuries

None

The Raptors predictably demolished the lowly Bulls in their season opener, but it wasn’t due to the usual dynamic production from the backcourt duo of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. They combined to score just 23 of Toronto’s 117 points, which is definitely a surprise. I am not concerned about them from a long-term viewpoint, as they will both carry heavy usage figures. This is a classic case of making sure we don’t get blinded by a one game sample size. The matchup is solid tonight against a Philadelphia team that isn’t the strongest defensive unit, especially with Embiid off the floor. The Sixers also ranked fifth in the NBA in pace last year, so this is a pace up game for the Raptors. I like both guys to get back on track tonight. Their price tags are a bit steep, but they are still affordable. I’ll give Lowry the slight edge on DK and FD because he is cheaper, and I will give DeRozan the slight edge on FDRAFT for the same reason.

It appears as though Norman Powell and C.J. Miles are going to split the majority of the minutes at the small forward spot, and both players will be risk/reward tournament plays given their likely inconsistent minutes and scoring dependency. Dwane Casey will likely ride the hot hand here. Serge Ibaka is a reasonably safe play at his current price point, though he tends to disappear at times. The player you really want to target here is Jonas Valanciunas. He was fantastic in the preseason and fantastic in the opener, racking up 23 points and 15 rebounds in a huge game. He also played 31 minutes, which is very encouraging as we move forward. The minutes have always been the big sticking point, and it appears as though Casey is willing to give him more run this year. Without Embiid in the middle, the Sixers have nobody that should be able to slow down Big Val.

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 111.0 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 111.4 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.2 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 108.0 (7 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry (FD & DK), DeMar DeRozan (FDRAFT), Jonas Valanciunas

Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry (FDRAFT), DeMar DeRozan (FD & DK), Norman Powell, C.J. Miles (GPP), Serge Ibaka

Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Dallas Mavericks							Houston Rockets
			Vegas Total		214.5					Vegas Total		214.5
			Vegas Spread		11.0					Vegas Spread		-11.0
			Implied Team Total		101.8					Implied Team Total		112.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.2					Pace Projection +/-		-2.7
Projected Starters	J.J. Barea	Wesley Matthews	Harrison Barnes	Dirk Nowitzki	Nerlens Noel		Projected Starters	Eric Gordon	James Harden	Trevor Ariza	Ryan Anderson	Clint Capela
Opponent DRPM	-0.13	-1.81	1.54	-0.16	1.25		Opponent DRPM	-1.58	0.25	-0.08	0.81	2.62

Dallas Mavericks

Notable Injuries

Dennis Smith, Jr (Doubtful)
Seth Curry (Out)
Devin Harris (Questionable)

The Mavericks are one of my favorite teams to target tonight. We know that minutes equal money in the NBA, and Dallas is going to be forced to give heavy minutes to a few players in the backcourt. Dennis Smith Jr. was a surprise scratch on Friday and is unlikely to play this evening. Seth Curry remains sidelined. Devin Harris is also questionable after missing yesterday’s game following the death of his brother in a car accident, and as of now I am not expecting him to return this evening. Deepest condolences go out to the Harris family. With those three players likely sidelined, Dallas has no choice but to give a ton of playing time to Yogi Ferrell and J.J. Barea in the backcourt. Barea started at the point and played 27 minutes on Friday, while Ferrell saw 30 minutes off the bench. Wesley Matthews might get a bit more run, too, but he is not a great fantasy option and missed all seven of his shot attempts on Friday. In a massive pace up game against the Rockets, Ferrell and Barea are great values in all formats this evening.

With this being the second game of a back-to-back set, it’s impossible to trust Dirk Nowitzki at this stage of his career. Some value might open up if he rests, but we do not have any news on that front yet. Harrison Barnes was fantastic on Friday in almost 40 minutes and is the safest play from this group, though I don’t love his individual matchup against Trevor Ariza. Nerlens Noel has intriguing per-minute upside, but he is more of a risk/reward GPP option, as we never know what he will get for minutes, either. I will generally stick with the guards here.

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.5 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.6 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.4 (16 of 30)

Elite Plays – J.J. Barea and Yogi Ferrell (assuming Smith and Harris are out)

Secondary Plays – Harrison Barnes, Nerlens Noel (GPP)

Houston Rockets

Notable Injuries

Chris Paul (Out)

It has been a tough start for a lot of the big name players that have moved to new teams this season, as Gordon Hayward has been lost for the year and now Chris Paul is going to be sidelined for about a month. While that is a tough blow for the Rockets, it opens up some fantasy opportunity for Eric Gordon and James Harden in the backcourt. Gordon will start in Paul’s place, while Harden will run the offense. Gordon played a ton of minutes in the last game where Paul was sidelined, and he has looked very spry through the first two games. Gordon’s price has only risen to $5,400 on DraftKings and $10,600 on FantasyDraft, and he remains an elite play on those sites. On FanDuel, you have to think a little bit more. Harden is obviously an elite, high usage option in all formats. While we would generally consider this a pace down game, it does seem like Dallas wants to play a bit faster this year. Harden will get his numbers regardless.

Clint Capela is going to post some massive games for the Rockets this season, and he racked up 22 points and 17 rebounds in the second game of the season after playing less than 20 minutes in the opener. He is an elite tournament play, especially against a Dallas squad that really struggled on the glass a year ago. Trevor Ariza is far too inconsistent for my liking and doesn’t see enough offensive usage. If you are looking for a value play on this team, your best option is probably Ryan Anderson, who helps space the offense, can knock down some three pointers, and plays a consistent 30 minutes on a nightly basis.

Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.0 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 117.5 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.9 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.9 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – James Harden, Eric Gordon (DK & FDRAFT), Clint Capela (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Eric Gordon (FD), Clint Capela (cash), Ryan Anderson

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat – 8:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers							Miami Heat
			Vegas Total		212.0					Vegas Total		212.0
			Vegas Spread		9.5					Vegas Spread		-9.5
			Implied Team Total		101.3					Implied Team Total		110.8
			Pace Projection +/-		5.5					Pace Projection +/-		13.0
Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Domantas Sabonis		Projected Starters	Goran Dragic	Dion Waiters	Josh Richardson	James Johnson	Kelly Olynyk
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Opponent DRPM	-1.61	-0.06	-0.16	1.72	0.64		Opponent DRPM	-1.67	1.64	-2.76	1.69	1.92

Indiana Pacers

Notable Injuries

Myles Turner (Out)

The two big men are going to be out for this game, as both Myles Turner and Hassan Whiteside are going to be sidelined. Turner had a great opening game, but his absence does not really give a massive boost to any single player. Domantas Sabonis got the start and played close to 30 minutes on Friday, while Al Jefferson picked up minutes in the teens, and T.J. Leaf had a fine game off the bench. In a matchup against a slow-paced Miami team, there’s no reason to risk it with that group tonight. Thaddeus Young should help shoulder some of the scoring load, but while he has a safe floor, the ceiling leaves a bit to be desired. He is a better option for cash games than tournaments.

Indiana’s stats are a bit inflated through two games as a result of playing a pair of faster-paced teams in Brooklyn and Portland. That changes tonight in a road game against the Heat, and the Pacers check in as double digit underdogs here. The minutes are secure for Darren Collison and Victor Oladipo in the backcourt, and Oladipo has the most upside of the group. He has been aggressive in the first two games and appears primed for a great season. He is my favorite play on this squad, but there’s no reason to force heavy exposure here.

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 116.0 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.7 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.0 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 109.1 (5 of 30)

Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo

Secondary Plays – Darren Collison, Thaddeus Young (cash, preferred price on DK), Domantas Sabonis

Miami Heat

Notable Injuries

Dion Waiters (Probable)
Hassan Whiteside (Out)

With Hassan Whiteside sidelined, there is some value to be had in the Miami frontcourt. Whiteside was a beast in the opener against Orlando, but he banged knees with Nikola Vucevic, and that has become an issue to the point where he was ruled out for this game almost a full 24 hours prior to tip-off. We don’t know what the Heat will do for their starting lineup just yet, but they could give Bam Adebayo the start in Whiteside’s place. They could also move Kelly Olynyk to the five and give James Johnson the start at power forward. Either way, the minutes should increase for all three players, and the big men draw a good matchup with Myles Turner sidelined on the other side. I love Olynyk and Johnson as tournament options today, and Olynyk might even be viable in cash games at his affordable price tag. He had a great preseason and should be heavily involved here.

Dion Waiters is officially probable for this game, but you might see his minutes monitored a little bit. He played 38 minutes in the opener and is already injured. That doesn’t bode well. His lack of stats outside of scoring make him a secondary option at best, especially given the injury situation. Goran Dragic and Josh Richardson are looking at heavy minutes and are solid options with Miami projected to score over 110 points tonight. Indiana is going to push the pace this year and doesn’t have a great defense, so the overall matchup for Miami is great.

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 122.5 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 111.9 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 116.6 (1 of 30)

Elite Plays – Goran Dragic, Kelly Olynyk, James Johnson (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Josh Richardson, James Johnson (cash), Dion Waiters

San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs							Chicago Bulls
			Vegas Total		203.0					Vegas Total		203.0
			Vegas Spread		-9.5					Vegas Spread		9.5
			Implied Team Total		106.3					Implied Team Total		96.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.8					Pace Projection +/-		-6.9
Projected Starters	Dejounte Murray	Danny Green	Kyle Anderson	LaMarcus Aldridge	Pau Gasol		Projected Starters	Jerian Grant	Justin Holiday	Paul Zipser	Lauri Markkanen	Robin Lopez
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Opponent DRPM	0.45	0.32	-0.09		0.24		Opponent DRPM	-0.74	2.10	2.92	1.25	1.43

San Antonio Spurs

Notable Injuries

Kawhi Leonard (Out)
Tony Parker (Out)

This is one of the more boring games of the night, so we can save a little bit of time here. The Spurs like to play at a slow pace, and the Bulls aren’t very good, so the result is a Vegas total that is the second lowest of the night at just over 200 points. On a Saturday evening that features a rare double digit number of games, there is no reason to force in a lot of players from this game. LaMarcus Aldridge is the guy that should benefit most from the absence of Kawhi Leonard, and he is the strongest play from this group. He logged a 33% usage rate without Leonard and Parker on the floor last year, and he put up a double-double in 37 minutes in the season opener. This game is not any part of a back-to-back set, so we should see Aldridge get plenty of minutes again tonight. He is easily my favorite play from this game.

Don’t chase one big game from Danny Green. The point guard spot is basically an even minute split between Dejounte Murray and Patty Mills, so I will pass on that on a full slate. If you want another play outside of Aldridge, give Kyle Anderson a look. He started over Rudy Gay the other night and played 30 minutes, and we have seen him show some sneaky potential at times when he gets that kind of run. He’s a decent tournament flier on the cheap.

Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls

Points Allowed Per Game: 117.0 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 117.8 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.1 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.8 (14 of 30)

Elite Plays – LaMarcus Aldridge

Secondary Plays – Kyle Anderson

Chicago Bulls

Notable Injuries

Denzel Valentine (Questionable)
Bobby Portis (Out)
Nikola Mirotic (Out)
Zach LaVine (Out)
Kris Dunn (Out)

The Bulls were already projected to be one of the worst teams in the NBA, and now their rash of injuries has made them even worse. Throw in a home matchup against a slow-paced Spurs team, and there’s really no reason to go here on a full slate. The Bulls have an implied team total of just 96 points, and this is a large enough slate where we can simply cross them off the list. If you force me to pick one play, I will opt for Justin Holiday. He is going to be the go-to scorer on this team and has some upside, so he can be considered as a mid-range GPP play. The sites have priced these Bulls players up to some degree, so it’s not like we have screaming values on them. There’s no reason to get excited here.

Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs

Points Allowed Per Game: 99.0 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.9 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.4 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.7 (29 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Justin Holiday (GPP)

Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:00 PM ET

Orlando Magic							Cleveland Cavaliers
			Vegas Total							Vegas Total
			Vegas Spread							Vegas Spread
			Implied Team Total							Implied Team Total
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.6					Pace Projection +/-		5.5
Projected Starters	D.J. Augustin	Evan Fournier	Terrence Ross	Aaron Gordon	Nikola Vucevic		Projected Starters	Jose Calderon	Dwyane Wade	LeBron James	Jae Crowder	Kevin Love
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Opponent DRPM	-0.53	-0.63	1.57	1.37	1.93		Opponent DRPM	-3.28	-1.05	-1.20	-0.61	2.26

Orlando Magic

Notable Injuries

Aaron Gordon (Questionable)
Elfrid Payton (Doubtful)

We might get some value in Orlando tonight. Aaron Gordon sat out Friday’s game and is likely going to be a game-time decision today, while Elfrid Payton got hurt during the game and seems unlikely to suit up tonight. That should allow D.J. Augustin to soak up more minutes at both guard spots, though it seems like Shelvin Mack might start at the point. Augustin is still the better DFS value, and I might actually prefer him if he comes off the bench as a more aggressive option on the second unit. Keep an eye on Payton’s status as we get closer to tip-off.

In the frontcourt, Nikola Vucevic was an absolute monster on Friday against the Nets, but this is a much more imposing matchup against the Cavaliers. He is still a reasonable play as the primary offensive option on this team, but don’t go expecting a massive line like he posted yesterday. Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross would see their value solidified if Gordon is sidelined again, but the biggest beneficiaries are the young players in Jonathon Simmons and Jonathan Isaac. Simmons continued to come off the bench last night, but he is the more polished player and would be my pick of the two. To be clear, this isn’t a team that we need to have a ton of exposure to, because the matchup is tough on the road against a good team. Orlando is unlikely to keep this game super close if both Payton and Gordon are out.

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 98.0 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 97.1 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.0 (17 of 30)

Elite Plays – D.J. Augustin (value, if Elfrid Payton is out), Evan Fournier (if Aaron Gordon is out)

Secondary Plays – Evan Fournier (if Aaron Gordon is in), Jonathon Simmons, Terrence Ross, Nikola Vucevic

Cleveland Cavaliers

Notable Injuries

Derrick Rose (Out)
Isaiah Thomas (Out)

Both of Cleveland’s point guards are injured, which means we should see Jose Calderon get plenty of run tonight. He played just one minute off the bench last night, but all indications are that he will start in place of Rose. I don’t love the upside that he provides, but it’s hard to argue with him as a value option assuming he draws the start. You might see both Dwyane Wade and LeBron James facilitate the offense a little more, but they carry risk on the second half of a back-to-back set in a game that Cleveland should win comfortably. Calderon is a reasonable cash game value if he draws a start, while Wade and James are better utilized as GPP options given the potential blowout and back-to-back considerations. Wade is a better play on DraftKings where his salary remains super cheap at $5,000.

Tyronn Lue promised to utilize Kevin Love in the offense more often on Friday, and he delivered on that promise. Love racked up a great all around line of 17 points, 12 rebounds, and six assists, and I like the way he matches up with a similarly athletic big man in Nikola Vucevic. It also helps that Vucevic is not noted as a strong defender. I have no problems utilizing Love at a reasonable price tag. Jae Crowder doesn’t carry a ton of upside and isn’t really in play for me on a large slate.

Matchup vs. Orlando Magic

Points Allowed Per Game: 117.5 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 97.8 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 109.1 (5 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kevin Love, Dwyane Wade (GPP, DK & FDRAFT), LeBron James (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jose Calderon (if he starts), Dwyane Wade (FD), LeBron James (cash)

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