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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, October 29th - Page Two

by Chirag Hira (INSPYR) Last Updated 2016-10-30 02:39:04

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New Orleans Pelicans at San Antonio Spurs – 8:00 PM ET

New Orleans Pelicans San Antonio Spurs
neworleansnba Vegas Total 206.0 sanantonionba Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Spread 13.5 Vegas Spread -13.5
Team Total 96.3 Team Total 109.8
Pace of Play 110.50 Pace of Play 98.00
Proj. Starter Tim Frazier E’Twaun Moore Solomon Hill Anthony Davis Omer Asik Proj. Starter Tony Parker Kyle Anderson Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Pau Gasol
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2015-16 7 2 1 1 2 2015-16 23 26 22 7 29

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans hung tough with the Warriors last night, but they get another stiff test tonight against the Spurs. With this being the second night of a back-to-back in San Antonio, don’t chase Anthony Davis or Tim Frazier. They both have been great to start the season and will still likely be great after this game, but the Pels are expected to get crushed tonight by the Spurs. Lance Stephenson put up 33 DraftKings points last night and should be on the radar as a garbage time specialist. He was the primary option for the second unit and will likely be that for the foreseeable future. He’s never a great option to pay up for but should be around $4k by this time next week with the minutes he’s seeing. The Pelicans are trying to be GSW South, so expect them to try and push the pace at every opportunity. There’s just too much risk against the Spurs, so look at Buddy Hield and Terrence Jones as the bench fliers. They are strictly GPP options who can singlehandedly ruin a cash team.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Minutes FP/Game FP/Min True Usage DvP
Tim Frazier PG $5,300 PG $5,600 36.8 40.5 1.10 41.6% 7
E’Twaun Moore SG $4,500 SG $4,000 28.2 19.2 0.68 23.5% 2
Solomon Hill SF $4,000 SF $3,500 27.1 4.7 0.17 20.4% 1
Anthony Davis PF $10,800 PF/C $10,700 41.2 95.7 2.32 34.7% 1
Omer Asik C $3,500 C $3,000 16.5 4.7 0.28 13.9% 2
Lance Stephenson SF $4,100 SF $3,300 25.5 16.1 0.63 29.9% 1

Elite Plays – N/A

Secondary Plays – Terrence Jones, Buddy Hield, Lance Stephenson

San Antonio Spurs

Editor’s Note: Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili have been ruled OUT tonight

The Spurs have been cautious so far with Pau Gasol, only giving him 19.5 minutes per game. This looks like a prime spot for them to get their new big man really acquainted. Omer Asik and Alexis Ajinca don’t have the skills to stay with Gasol, and LaMarcus Aldridge will have to deal with Anthony Davis on both ends of the floor. Gasol’s salary has fallen on both sites for two consecutive games, giving us some potential upside. Kawhi Leonard has hit 50+ fantasy points in consecutive games and is the unquestioned MVP of this team. He can have another great game tonight, but his upside is now priced in. He’s a better play on FanDuel, but it’s far from a lock with this game expected to get out of hand.

This game is setting up for the bench to perform well. Patty Mills, Jonathon Simmons, David Lee, Dewayne Dedmon, and Manu Ginobili are all viable options. Lee and Dedmon have the best prices on DraftKings, with Dedmon seeing the most minutes of two against the Kings on Thursday. Patty Mills is setting up as a great tournament option and saw 23 minutes against the Kings. We should expect him to reach 24 again tonight, and he has the highest upside out of the bench players because he has the ball in his hands the most. Ginobili has the ball a good amount also with the second unit, but the Spurs will likely keep their veteran to about 18-20 minutes.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Minutes FP/Game FP/Min True Usage DvP
Tony Parker PG $4,500 PG $4,100 26.5 16.6 0.63 39.6% 23
Kyle Anderson SF $3,500 SG/SF $3,800 22.4 9.8 0.44 23.8% 22
Kawhi Leonard SF $8,400 SF/PF $8,900 32.1 53.5 1.67 33.0% 22
LaMarcus Aldridge PF $7,600 PF/C $7,200 35.2 47.3 1.34 30.7% 7
Pau Gasol C $6,800 C $6,300 18.3 7.3 0.40 35.8% 29
Jonathon Simmons SF $3,900 SF $4,100 28.2 29.3 1.04 26.8% 22
Manu Ginobili SG $3,700 SG $3,900 20.9 21.0 1.00 35.7% 26
Patty Mills PG $3,900 PG $3,800 17.9 27.7 1.55 30.4% 23

Elite Plays – Patty Mills, Pau Gasol

Secondary Plays – Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Manu Ginobili, Jonathon Simmons, Dewayne Dedmon

Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET

Brooklyn Nets Milwaukee Bucks
brooklynnba Vegas Total 205.0 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 205.0
Vegas Spread 6.5 Vegas Spread -6.5
Team Total 99.3 Team Total 105.8
Pace of Play 105.40 Pace of Play 98.70
Proj. Starter Jeremy Lin Bojan Bogdanovic Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Trevor Booker Brook Lopez Proj. Starter Giannis Antetokounmpo Matthew Dellavedova Jabari Parker Mirza Teletovic Miles Plumlee
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2015-16 9 20 25 26 16 2015-16 27 29 23 24 26

Brooklyn Nets

Editor’s Note: Brook Lopez and Randy Foye have been ruled OUT for tonight.

The Nets are playing on the second night of a back-to-back in Milwaukee after defeating the Pacers at home. Jeremy Lin and Brook Lopez carried them to victory but face a tougher challenge tonight. Giannis Antetokounmpo wil start at PG, so either he’ll defend Lin or Matthew Dellavedova will. In either scenario, it looks like a good spot to fade Lin coming off a spectacular showing. The Nets have the 14th-lowest implied team total and don’t have a ton of great fantasy options.

Sean Kilpatrick was 4 of 4 from behind the three-point line, and we should not expect that to continue on the road. Justin Hamilton saw 28 minutes, but was 1 of 6 from beyond the arc. Greivis could see 20 minutes tonight if Lin struggles, but he is also a tough option to trust. The Bucks are a better team to target from this game.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Minutes FP/Game FP/Min True Usage DvP
Jeremy Lin PG $6,200 PG $5,900 27.6 26.1 0.95 33.8% 9
Bojan Bogdanovic SF $4,200 SG/SF $4,400 23.1 27.0 1.17 24.3% 25
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson SF $3,900 SF $4,200 23.6 8.4 0.36 20.1% 25
Trevor Booker PF $4,900 PF $4,300 24.4 28.9 1.18 21.3% 26
Brook Lopez C $7,700 C $6,900 21.2 11.0 0.52 33.6% 16
Joe Harris SG $4,100 SG $3,400 25.3 30.3 1.20 19.4% 20
Justin Hamilton C $4,800 C $3,600 25.3 33.0 1.30 16
Sean Kilpatrick SG $3,900 SG $3,600 22.2 18.8 0.85 16.4% 20

Elite Plays – N/A

Secondary Plays – N/A

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks opened the season with a loss to the Hornets, but the Greek Freak thoroughly dominated, putting up 31 points, nine rebounds, five assists, plus a block and a steal. He’s on triple-double watch tonight against the Nets. He’s an elite option but is only a PG on DraftKings (he’s a SG on FanDuel). Jabari Parker is a solid MPE option that should see 30+ minutes tonight. Miles Plumlee is only a starter by name, and Greg Monroe plays more minutes than him. Monroe should be considered an elite option tonight against the Nets. Malcolm Brogdon is a viable bench option as well because he saw 21 minutes in the opener, but he’s a bit risky because Tony Snell is expected back. Snell has not been confirmed as the starter, but Jason Kidd said in the preseason that they brought him in to start.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Minutes FP/Game FP/Min True Usage DvP
Giannis Antetokounmpo SG $9,500 PG $8,800 38.7 52.3 1.35 33.1% 29
Matthew Dellavedova PG $4,400 PG/SG $3,900 29.1 17.1 0.59 31.6% 27
Jabari Parker PF $6,000 SF/PF $6,400 29.8 21.7 0.73 25.6% 24
Mirza Teletovic SF $3,900 PF $4,000 27.5 10.1 0.37 28.8% 23
Miles Plumlee C $3,700 C $3,100 8.3 6.7 0.81 18.7% 26
Greg Monroe C $5,900 C $5,700 29.3 35.5 1.21 30.3% 26

Elite Plays -Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, Greg Monroe

Secondary Plays -Mirza Teletovic, Matthew Dellavedova

Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers Denver Nuggets
portlandnba Vegas Total 211.0 denvernba Vegas Total 211.0
Vegas Spread 2.0 Vegas Spread -2.0
Team Total 104.5 Team Total 106.5
Pace of Play 99.50 Pace of Play 110.50
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Maurice Harkless Al-Farouq Aminu Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Nikola Jokic Jusuf Nurkic
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2015-16 22 25 19 30 10 2015-16 19 9 12 12 27

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers have gotten to start their season off at the friendly confines of the Moda Center but now travel to the Pepsi Center to take on the Nuggets. Damian Lillard struggled against Chris Paul on Thursday and still put up 46.5 DraftKings points, but don’t expect him to struggle tonight against Emmanuel Mudiay. Lillard is an elite option in all formats. C.J. McCollum was struggling with his shot at home, but now he’ll be defended by Will Barton. While Barton has the length, he does not have the defensive capabilities to stop McCollum. We should see a ton of usage from Lillard and McCollum. This game is projected to be high-scoring and remain close, so we have to look at the other pieces of this team.

Mason Plumlee had a great game against the Clippers and will look to keep that momentum going tonight in Denver. The concern with him is that he picks up fouls quickly, and if Jusuf Nurkic decides to attack him, there is a chance he will be in foul trouble. Plumlee is still a strong value option because we can’t predict foul trouble exactly. Maurice Harkless is also a nice value option in the starting five but splits time with Allen Crabbe and Evan Turner. Both Crabbe and Turner are viable plays, but Crabbe tends to play better at home. Turner is also fairly priced on both sites and has multi-position eligibility on DraftKings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Minutes FP/Game FP/Min True Usage DvP
Damian Lillard PG $9,100 PG $9,100 35.4 54.8 1.55 48.2% 22
C.J. McCollum SG $6,800 PG/SG $6,800 34.6 30.9 0.89 39.4% 25
Maurice Harkless SF $5,400 SF $4,000 22.4 4.7 0.21 19.8% 19
Al-Farouq Aminu PF $4,500 PF $4,400 28.4 16.3 0.57 22.0% 30
Mason Plumlee C $5,300 C $4,500 14.6 4.7 0.32 27.4% 10
Evan Turner SF $5,200 SG/SF $4,500 26 20.5 0.79 32.8% 19
Allen Crabbe SG $4,300 SG/SF $3,800 29.2 24.1 0.83 21.2% 25

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Mason Plumlee

Secondary Plays – Evan Turner, Maurice Harkless

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets home opener should be uptempo and high-scoring. With Portland coming to town, this game should be one of the highest-scoring contests of the night. Emmanuel Mudiay is in an elite spot and is priced for upside. He does not shoot the ball well and carries some risk as a cash game play. He is an excellent tournament option and should not have a great deal of ownership due to the large slate and other solid options at the position. It’s tough to get which Jurkic (Jokic/Nurkic) to play and both of them seem to have an advantage tonight. If the game gets really uptempo, we can expect that one of them will be off the floor and Kenneth Faried will be in there. Faried brings a little bit more defense than any part of Jurkic does.

Danilo Gallinari played 38 minutes in their season opener and is slated to play a ton of minutes throughout the season. He is coming off multiple seasons missed due to knee injuries, so he’s a high-risk player, getting a ton of minutes. He’s still a great option as long as he’s healthy and is priced for some upside on DraftKings. His price on FanDuel is a little bit more expensive, making him a GPP option more than anything. Since you need two SFs over there, he makes sense if you don’t want to punt at SF2 or don’t feel comfortable with the higher-priced options. Gary Harris is questionable for this game and did practice on Friday, so we should have an update before lock if he is going to play. Update: Gary Harris has been ruled out

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Minutes FP/Game FP/Min True Usage DvP
Emmanuel Mudiay PG $5,700 PG $5,900 28.1 19.9 0.71 41.8% 19
Gary Harris SG $4,900 SG $4,800 22.0% 9
Danilo Gallinari SF $7,000 SF $6,200 37.7 28.6 0.76 29.4% 12
Nikola Jokic PF $6,000 PF/C $6,600 21.1 12.4 0.59 29.2% 12
Jusuf Nurkic C $4,900 C $6,100 26 39.3 1.51 35.3% 27
Will Barton SG $5,200 SG/SF $5,000 34.8 29.0 0.83 31.8% 9
Wilson Chandler SF $5,400 SF $4,300 30.2 19.9 0.66 12
Kenneth Faried PF $5,500 PF $4,700 28.3 28.3 1.00 24.9% 12

Elite Plays – Emmanuel-Mudiay, Danilo Gallinari (DK)

Secondary Plays – Jusuf Nurkic, Nikola Jokic, Kenneth Faried

Minnesota Timberwolves at Sacramento Kings – 10:30 PM ET

Minnesota Timberwolves Sacramento Kings
minnesotanba Vegas Total 205.5 sacramentonba Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Spread 1.0 Vegas Spread -1.0
Team Total 102.3 Team Total 103.3
Pace of Play 94.30 Pace of Play 96.70
Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns Proj. Starter Ty Lawson Arron Afflalo Rudy Gay DeMarcus Cousins Kosta Koufos
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2015-16 26 28 26 25 17 2015-16 28 18 15 15 6

Minnesota Timberwolves

The T-Wolves opened with a loss on the road to the Grizzlies and continue out West tonight to face the Kings. Their new head coach, Tom Thibodeau, loves to run his starters to the max, and that’s beautiful for fantasy. All five starters played 33 or more minutes on Wednesday, and we should expect more of the same tonight. Karl-Anthony Towns for 35 minutes is a very strong cash game play against the Kings. Expect Gorgui Dieng to guard Cousins for a majority of the time, with KAT helping. If the Kings decide to go small and move Rudy Gay to the 4, Towns can still handle Cousins without having to commit fouls. He won’t be able to stop Cousins, but he can definitely alter his shots and make it more difficult.

While Karl-Anthony Towns led the Timberwolves in shot attempts (20) in their first game, it was interesting to note that LaVine and Wiggins had exactly 14 each. Wiggins showed progress in his game by picking up 7 rebounds and if he continues to average over 5 rebounds a game he is the likely going to be the better fantasy player. LaVine has worked on his shot, and the T-Wolves have been raving about it all preseason. He will likely hit more threes than Wiggins but will also take less free throws. Wiggins had 14 free throw attempts in their first game compared to LaVine’s 5. We can’t project that big of a disparity, but it’s definitely something to note moving forward. Ricky Rubio also has an elite matchup against Ty Lawson, but true to form, Rubio only had four points on five shot attempts in their last game. He’s out there to get the ball to their stars in the right places and create easy basket in transition off of steals. Shabazz Muhammad, Nemanja Bjelica, Brandon Rush, and Kris Dunn will stay around that 13-15 minute mark, but one is bound to get loose against the Kings. It’s tough to project exactly which one because of the limited minutes. Kris Dunn can get you more assists than the others, so it’s likely he has the higher upside in a game where the Kings have no backup PG and Lawson has to play almost 40 minutes.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Minutes FP/Game FP/Min True Usage DvP
Ricky Rubio PG $6,300 PG $6,000 33.4 18.8 0.56 42.2% 26
Zach LaVine SG $5,600 SG $5,600 33.8 29.5 0.87 34.1% 28
Andrew Wiggins SF $6,600 SF $6,600 34.5 33.4 0.97 32.7% 26
Gorgui Dieng PF $5,700 PF/C $5,900 34 37.8 1.11 22.6% 25
Karl-Anthony Towns C $8,700 C $9,000 36.5 35.3 0.97 31.0% 17
Shabazz Muhammad SF $3,800 SG/SF $3,000 13.5 4.4 0.33 25.6% 26

Elite Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine

Secondary Plays – Ricky Rubio, Kris Dunn

Sacramento Kings

Darren Collison will not be playing in the first eight games of the season and Ty Lawson will get all the minutes he can handle. Lawson is a solid cash game option due to the minutes but seems like 30 fantasy points is his upside, which is why he’s priced so low. He’s a little bit cheaper on FanDuel, but due to the 10k salary cap difference it’s not much. DeMarcus Cousins showed us that he is pretty close to matchup proof. The only reason he did not crush in their first game was because of foul trouble. If he can stay out of foul trouble tonight, he should be able to exceed value again. He’s an elite option on FanDuel at C and is cheaper than LeBron and Anthony Davis. On DraftKings, he’s only $100 cheaper than Davis. 50 fantasy points is definitely in reach for Cousins, and there should be enough value plays with such a large slate that you don’t have to fade him since he is expected to play 35+ minutes.

Matt Barnes is a viable low-end GPP value play who might be forced out there to defend Wiggins or LaVine if Gay gets into foul trouble. Like I mentioned earlier, the Kings like to go small and move Rudy Gay to the 4. In a game where they might be forced to stay big due to Minnesota’s size, Barnes carries considerable risk.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Minutes FP/Game FP/Min True Usage DvP
Ty Lawson PG $5,200 PG $5,600 35.6 30.7 0.86 31.5% 28
Arron Afflalo SG $3,800 SG $3,900 26.2 13.6 0.52 25.0% 18
Rudy Gay SF $7,000 SF $6,200 33.2 36.6 1.10 27.9% 15
DeMarcus Cousins C $9,800 PF/C $10,600 24.7 33.2 1.34 43.4% 6
Kosta Koufos C $3,600 C $3,100 13.4 7.3 0.54 18.8% 6
Matt Barnes SF $4,100 SF $3,500 27.6 25.9 0.94 24.9% 15

Elite Plays – DeMarcus Cousins, Ty Lawson (cash)

Secondary Plays – Rudy Gay

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About the Author

INSPYR
Chirag Hira (INSPYR)

Chirag Hira, DFS alias “INSPYR”, has been playing fantasy basketball since 2001. He picked up DFS during the 2015 playoffs and has never looked back. In charge of DFS Alerts for the NBA, Chirag takes it as a daily challenge to break news before anyone else in the industry. He graduated with a degree in sports journalism and his career highlights include interviewing Kobe Bryant and Joe Torre. You can find Chirag on Twitter at C_Hira24.