NBA Grind Down: Sunday, December 31st
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards – 3:30 PM ET
| Chicago Bulls | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.0 |  | Vegas Total | 213.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 7.0 | Vegas Spread | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.0 | Implied Team Total | 110.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.0 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jerian Grant | Justin Holiday | Denzel Valentine | Lauri Markkanen | Robin Lopez | Projected Starters | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 17 | 8 | 20 | 3 | 7 | DvP | 21 | 19 | 21 | 25 | 18 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 7 | 16 | 1 | 13 | 6 | DRPM Rat. | 26 | 3 | 23 | 23 | 23 | |
Chicago Bulls
Notable Injuries
Kris Dunn (Questionable)
Good day, Grinders! I hope you all have a safe, enjoyable New Year’s Eve! We have a jam packed sports day today with the final week of the NFL regular season along with a surprisingly large eight game NBA slate. There are three afternoon games and five evening games, which the major sites are splitting into two different slates. DraftKings has a three game early slate and a five game main slate, while FanDuel is excluding this first game and has just a two game early slate along with the five game main slate.
We start things off with what could be a sneaky high-scoring game between the suddenly surging Bulls and the Wizards. Kris Dunn was a late scratch the other night and is listed as questionable for today’s game. Jerian Grant started in his place and had a solid 11/7/12 line in over 30 minutes against the Pacers. He is a solid value play if Dunn is out. Justin Holiday has been relatively disappointing this year, but his price tag is very cheap these days. I would reserve him as a GPP-only option on the wing in a relatively difficult individual matchup.
The frontcourt is muddy in terms of projected minutes, but this has been the big key to this team. Lauri Markkanen, Nikola Mirotic, and Bobby Portis have all been playing well. The problem is that power forward is the primary position for all of them, so there aren’t a ton of minutes to go around. The coaching staff has been making more room for them, though, as Mirotic can play small forward at times, while they can also go small and play one of them at center when Robin Lopez is out. The shaky minutes make all of them a bit risky, but both Markkanen and Mirotic are in play. They combined for 60 points against the Pacers on Friday. The Wizards have struggled against scoring wings this year, making Mirotic my favorite option of the group with his outside shooting ability. Robin Lopez is a low upside option that really isn’t on my radar here.
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 99.7 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.0 (11 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.9 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.0 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.4 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerian Grant | $4,300 | $4,300 | 20.5 | -2.3 | 22.5 | -5.8 | 0.91 | 20.0% | 7 | 17 | 7 | |
| Justin Holiday | $5,300 | $5,300 | 26.5 | -1.3 | 33.5 | -1.0 | 0.79 | 17.5% | 8 | 8 | 16 | |
| Denzel Valentine | $4,300 | $4,500 | 21.6 | 1.9 | 28.5 | 1.1 | 0.76 | 15.7% | 12 | 20 | 1 | |
| Lauri Markkanen | $5,500 | $5,500 | 26.7 | -5.4 | 29.5 | -3.6 | 0.91 | 20.0% | 19 | 3 | 13 | |
| Robin Lopez | $4,600 | $4,700 | 24.2 | -1.8 | 29.3 | -5.0 | 0.83 | 18.2% | 9 | 7 | 6 | |
| Nikola Mirotic | $6,700 | $6,500 | 29.5 | -5.6 | 25.5 | -0.1 | 1.16 | 22.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Nikola Mirotic (GPP), Jerian Grant (if Dunn is out)
Secondary Plays – Nikola Mirotic (Cash), Kris Dunn (if active), Lauri Markkanen, Justin Holiday
Washington Wizards
Notable Injuries
Bradley Beal (Probable)
Mike Scott (Probable)
Washington’s offense has been on a bit of a roll lately, and they are coming off a 121 point outburst against the Rockets on Friday. The team is fully healthy for one of the first times all season, and that is making a difference. This isn’t necessarily a bad matchup against a Bulls team that plays faster than a lot of people realize, though the Bulls have been playing better lately. Chicago ranks below average defensively against virtually every position. Otto Porter has been playing very well of late and draws a fine matchup today against the Chicago wings. He should be able to continue to build momentum after his 26/6/7 performance in the last game. John Wall has been surprisingly disappointing in the month of December, though injuries have had plenty to do with that. He’s a GPP-only option for me right now, though the current DK price is mighty tempting. Bradley Beal is also in play for his upside at shooting guard.
The power forward and center spots are less exciting here. Marcin Gortat has disappeared far too often this year, while Markieff Morris has occasionally been losing time at the hands of Mike Scott. The lines have been far too empty for both starters, and Gortat has seen his minutes dip into the teens on occasion. Kelly Oubre has been picking up a few more minutes off the bench when the Wizards go small, but that’s unlikely against a Bulls squad that generally plays big. I really don’t have a strong positive take on anyone from this group today, so I shall pass.
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 105.6 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.0 (3 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 4.4 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.4 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wall | $9,300 | $8,600 | 39.0 | -7.0 | 33.0 | -3.1 | 1.18 | 28.6% | 24 | 21 | 26 | |
| Bradley Beal | $8,100 | $7,600 | 36.1 | -4.0 | 35.2 | -1.8 | 1.03 | 26.7% | 12 | 19 | 3 | |
| Otto Porter | $7,100 | $6,800 | 30.6 | -2.5 | 31.0 | -3.6 | 0.99 | 17.1% | 23 | 21 | 23 | |
| Markieff Morris | $4,800 | $4,800 | 19.2 | 3.6 | 23.9 | 4.7 | 0.80 | 17.1% | 28 | 25 | 23 | |
| Marcin Gortat | $4,400 | $5,000 | 24.3 | -8.7 | 27.4 | -7.1 | 0.89 | 13.4% | 17 | 18 | 23 | |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,700 | $4,600 | 22.4 | 0.6 | 27.8 | 0.0 | 0.80 | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – John Wall (GPP), Otto Porter
Secondary Plays – John Wall (Cash), Bradley Beal
Minnesota Timberwolves at Indiana Pacers – 5:00 PM ET
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212.0 |  | Vegas Total | 212.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -3.5 | Vegas Spread | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.8 | Implied Team Total | 104.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tyus Jones | Jimmy Butler | Andrew Wiggins | Taj Gibson | Karl-Anthony Towns | Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Lance Stephenson | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 19 | 10 | 5 | 18 | 30 | DvP | 13 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 22 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 10 | 26 | 29 | 4 | 10 | DRPM Rat. | 4 | 2 | 27 | 11 | 28 | |
Minnesota Timberwolves
Notable Injuries
Andrew Wiggins (Probable)
Jimmy Butler (Probable)
Tyus Jones (Probable)
Jeff Teague (Out)
The Wolves have listed three players as probable for this game. This analysis assumes that all three of them are playing today, but make sure to monitor the situation as we get closer to tip-off. Let’s start with point guard, where Jeff Teague is going to be out for the next 2-4 weeks. That opens the door for Tyus Jones, and the minutes should not be a concern. We know that Tom Thibodeau loves to ride his starters, and Jones has consistently gotten minutes in the mid-30’s when Teague has been out this year. He’s not a massive usage guy, but he can contribute across the stat sheet and is a solid source of steals. Even though the sites have increased his price a bit, he’s still a solid value at $5,400 on DK and $6,100 on FD. With Teague sidelined, CourtIQ tells us that both Jimmy Butler and Andrew Wiggins benefit as well. Wiggins’ usage increases by 2.6%, while Butler’s jumps by 3.5%. They both score three to four additional fantasy points per game with Teague out. Butler checks in as an elite play today, while Wiggins is still too scoring dependent for my liking and is a secondary option.
When attacking the Pacers, the best way to do it is on the interior. They are very weak defensively against big men, so don’t sleep on Taj Gibson and Karl-Anthony Towns this afternoon. Gibson has been fantastic this year after being reunited with his former coach, while Towns has finally picked up his play in recent weeks. Towns scored 28 in the first meeting between these teams this year, and that was in a game the Wolves lost by 23 points. I expect him to be the top performer on the afternoon slate, and both Gibson and Towns are great options in all formats. We know the minutes will be there as long as the game stays close, as well.
Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 108.6 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (7 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -0.8 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyus Jones | $6,100 | $5,400 | 13.7 | 5.1 | 17.1 | 2.8 | 0.80 | 11.9% | 13 | 19 | 10 | |
| Jimmy Butler | $8,800 | $8,400 | 39.4 | 6.6 | 37.6 | 3.5 | 1.05 | 23.5% | 14 | 10 | 26 | |
| Andrew Wiggins | $5,500 | $5,800 | 28.6 | -2.0 | 36.5 | -1.2 | 0.78 | 21.0% | 6 | 5 | 29 | |
| Taj Gibson | $5,800 | $5,900 | 26.7 | 1.6 | 33.7 | 3.3 | 0.79 | 12.7% | 24 | 18 | 4 | |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $9,800 | $9,500 | 42.4 | 1.5 | 35.8 | 0.2 | 1.18 | 19.8% | 29 | 30 | 10 |
Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Karl-Anthony Towns
Secondary Plays – Tyus Jones, Andrew Wiggins
Indiana Pacers
Notable Injuries
Victor Oladipo (Doubtful)
The analysis for this Pacers team changes considerably depending upon whether or not Victor Oladipo is on the floor. He is currently listed as doubtful for today’s game, so the assumption is that he will not play. If that is the case, we can bump up literally all of the starters. If you include replacement starter Lance Stephenson, all five starters see a usage boost of between 1.5% and 3.5% with Oladipo out. The star guard carries so much usage that there is plenty to go around when he is out. The obvious play is Stephenson, and he has been very popular in his two starts in place of Oladipo. However, he has now been priced up appropriately to match his production with Oladipo sidelined, and he’s only a secondary GPP option for me today against Minnesota’s solid wing defense. Stephenson will be popular because he hasn’t let people down this week, but I will likely be underweight with my exposure today. He’s still a fine option in cash games.
On the other hand, Darren Collison has let people down many times, so people are hesitant to pull the trigger on him. He scored 30 actual points in the last game and is basically the same price as Stephenson. In tournament formats, I will gladly make that pivot. Thaddeus Young is a safe option at power forward, as his production is very consistent across the board. Myles Turner has elite upside against perhaps Minnesota’s weakest defensive link in Towns. All the starters are in play for this team, but Collison and Turner are my personal favorites. Cory Joseph will also see a few extra minutes if Oladipo is out, and he’s a decent value selection on a short early slate.
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 107.5 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (10 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -3.3 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.9 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $6,600 | $6,400 | 27.2 | -6.5 | 30.4 | -1.9 | 0.89 | 18.6% | 17 | 13 | 4 | |
| Lance Stephenson | $6,600 | $6,300 | 19.9 | 6.6 | 23.0 | 6.6 | 0.87 | 17.5% | 25 | 11 | 2 | |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,800 | $4,700 | 20.9 | 1.5 | 31.6 | 1.5 | 0.66 | 16.0% | 13 | 9 | 27 | |
| Thaddeus Young | $5,900 | $5,400 | 27.5 | -10.5 | 33.0 | -5.0 | 0.83 | 15.3% | 8 | 4 | 11 | |
| Myles Turner | $7,500 | $7,100 | 32.5 | 3.1 | 30.4 | 1.0 | 1.07 | 17.8% | 27 | 22 | 28 | |
| Cory Joseph | $4,500 | $4,000 | 17.8 | -0.4 | 25.1 | 2.2 | 0.71 | 15.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Myles Turner, Darren Collison (GPP), Lance Stephenson (Cash)
Secondary Plays – Darren Collison (Cash), Lance Stephenson (GPP), Bojan Bogdanovic, Thaddeus Young, Cory Joseph
NOTE: These all assume that Victor Oladipo is out
Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics – 5:30 PM ET
| Brooklyn Nets | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210.0 |  | Vegas Total | 210.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 10.0 | Vegas Spread | -10.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.0 | Implied Team Total | 110.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.9 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | Allen Crabbe | DeMarre Carroll | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Tyler Zeller | Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 1 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 9 | DvP | 26 | 18 | 25 | 28 | 28 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 27 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 3 | 23 | 4 | 21 | 16 | |
Brooklyn Nets
Notable Injuries
Caris LeVert (Probable)
Even on a short early slate, it’s really difficult to endorse much for plays from the Brooklyn Nets. While they play at a fast pace, they draw a bad matchup on the road against a very solid Boston defense. They also tend to play a very unpredictable rotation. That’s a very bad combination. In their last game, ten players logged at least 16 minutes of court time. In the previous game, twelve players logged at least 12 minutes of court time. It’s hard to establish reliable fantasy value in those circumstances, especially in tough matchups. Despite their fast pace, Brooklyn has a team total just under 100 points here. I can’t make a case for anyone as an elite play. If you are looking to take a player here, the safest options are Spencer Dinwiddie, DeMarre Carroll, and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. RHJ profiles as the best option against Boston, and his size will be needed, but I’m really not that excited about anyone. Proceed with caution.
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 107.4 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.0 (12 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -7.4 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.3 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.7 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $6,000 | $6,200 | 28.4 | -1.8 | 26.8 | 0.6 | 1.06 | 22.6% | 2 | 1 | 27 | |
| Allen Crabbe | $4,600 | $4,200 | 20.2 | -0.6 | 28.4 | 1.2 | 0.71 | 16.4% | 5 | 7 | 2 | |
| DeMarre Carroll | $4,800 | $4,900 | 25.8 | -1.7 | 28.7 | -2.9 | 0.90 | 17.8% | 1 | 7 | 3 | |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $7,200 | $6,100 | 28.9 | 6.5 | 28.1 | -0.1 | 1.03 | 20.0% | 17 | 5 | 2 | |
| Tyler Zeller | $3,800 | $3,400 | 16.2 | -1.8 | 18.9 | -0.9 | 0.85 | 14.7% | 9 | 9 | 1 | |
| Caris LeVert | $5,800 | $5,600 | 24.7 | 3.2 | 26.9 | 2.4 | 0.92 | 19.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Spencer Dinwiddie, DeMarre Carroll
Boston Celtics
Notable Injuries
Jaylen Brown (Probable)
On the flip side of this game, it’s a very fantasy friendly matchup for the Celtics. Now, that fantasy friendly nature is simply because Brooklyn plays at such a fast pace. It’s worth noting that this is not the same defensive sieve that we saw a year ago. Brooklyn has been much more respectable this year. Still, the Celtics should have no trouble getting well over 100 points in this home game, and the biggest question is whether or not this game will stay close with Boston checking in as double digit favorites. The Nets are strongest defensively on the wings, but they have struggled against point guards and big men. Hello, Kyrie Irving and Al Horford! They are strong options in all formats on the early slate.
The other positions are much less clear. With Jaylen Brown expected to play today, it’s unclear how minutes will be split among the likes of Brown, Jayson Tatum, Marcus Morris, Marcus Smart and others at shooting guard and small forward. If I had to pick one fantasy option among the group, it would be Tatum, who is proving to be a solid NBA-caliber player. His minutes should at least be relatively secure in the low 30 range. Tatum would be my third target after Irving and Horford, and I will shy away from the unpredictable remainder of this squad. However, there is certainly GPP potential if you feel like trusting Brown, Smart, or the surging Terry Rozier.
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 103.3 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.0 (3 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 6.7 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.7 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.8 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $9,100 | $8,800 | 38.0 | -0.6 | 32.4 | 0.4 | 1.17 | 29.7% | 28 | 26 | 3 | |
| Jaylen Brown | $5,500 | $5,200 | 26.1 | -0.9 | 31.2 | -1.8 | 0.84 | 17.8% | 27 | 18 | 23 | |
| Jayson Tatum | $6,200 | $6,000 | 27.1 | 3.4 | 31.1 | 4.9 | 0.87 | 15.5% | 8 | 25 | 4 | |
| Al Horford | $7,400 | $7,800 | 33.9 | -0.8 | 32.6 | 0.2 | 1.04 | 17.8% | 26 | 28 | 21 | |
| Aron Baynes | $3,500 | $3,500 | 14.8 | -1.4 | 18.2 | -2.6 | 0.81 | 14.1% | 26 | 28 | 16 | |
| Marcus Smart | $5,800 | $5,700 | 24.1 | 0.5 | 30.8 | 0.3 | 0.78 | 17.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Terry Rozier | $4,100 | $4,800 | 20.2 | 6.6 | 23.3 | 1.7 | 0.87 | 18.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving, Al Horford
Secondary Plays – Jayson Tatum, Terry Rozier (GPP), Jaylen Brown (GPP)
Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings – 7:00 PM ET
| Memphis Grizzlies | Sacramento Kings | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194.0 |  | Vegas Total | 194.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 3.0 | Vegas Spread | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 95.5 | Implied Team Total | 98.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.9 | Pace Projection +/- | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tyreke Evans | Andrew Harrison | Dillon Brooks | Jarell Martin | Marc Gasol | Projected Starters | George Hill | Buddy Hield | Garrett Temple | Skal Labissiere | Zach Randolph | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 12 | 14 | 18 | 19 | 29 | DvP | 10 | 16 | 8 | 10 | 1 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 21 | 10 | 14 | 26 | 24 | DRPM Rat. | 19 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 19 | |
Memphis Grizzlies
Notable Injuries
Chandler Parsons (Questionable)
The five game “main” slate starts with Memphis taking on Sacramento in one of the more unpredictable games of the day. It’s the second game of a West Coast back-to-back for the Grizzlies, after they played Golden State in a game that featured nearly 270 regulation points last night! That’s a remarkable total for a Memphis game. Assuming Chandler Parsons plays tonight, his return cools the appeal of rising youngster Kobi Simmons, who is coming off a solid performance in 31 minutes on Saturday. However, Simmons might also get some minutes at both guard spots, especially with Andrew Harrison struggling on Saturday. The frontcourt rotation is an absolute mess for this team right now, as Simmons, Dillon Brooks, JaMychal Green, Jarell Martin, and James Ennis all played between 15 and 31 minutes last night. It’s almost impossible to trust any of them.
In addition to the unpredictable rotations, this game is hard to trust for fantasy purposes because these are the two slowest paced teams in the NBA. Don’t be fooled by the offensive output from the Memphis game last night. The Vegas total in this game opened at a meager 194 points, and this is easily the least appealing game on the evening slate. Tyreke Evans and Marc Gasol are really the only fantasy options on this team right now, and that is even more true after Andrew Harrison played just 17 minutes on Saturday. Outside of Evans and Gasol, if you are looking for a value play on this squad, Simmons looks like the best option at the moment. That’s far from a ringing endorsement, however.
Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 97.5 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 95.5 (14 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -2.0 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.4 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.9 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.5 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreke Evans | $8,600 | $7,900 | $14,500 | 34.4 | 15.3 | 30.8 | 4.4 | 1.12 | 27.0% | 16 | 12 | 21 |
| Andrew Harrison | $4,500 | $4,500 | $8,400 | 15.5 | 7.4 | 20.6 | 10.5 | 0.75 | 18.5% | 10 | 14 | 10 |
| Dillon Brooks | $3,500 | $3,700 | $7,700 | 15.4 | -0.8 | 28.0 | 0.8 | 0.55 | 12.2% | 19 | 18 | 14 |
| Jarell Martin | $4,200 | $4,400 | $8,500 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 17.1 | 3.0 | 0.75 | 13.4% | 25 | 19 | 26 |
| Marc Gasol | $8,600 | $8,200 | $14,700 | 38.7 | 0.9 | 35.1 | 0.7 | 1.10 | 24.2% | 28 | 29 | 24 |
| Brandan Wright | $3,700 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 15.0 | 1.2 | 14.7 | 2.0 | 1.02 | 13.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Tyreke Evans
Secondary Plays – Marc Gasol, Kobi Simmons (especially if Parsons is out)
Sacramento Kings
Notable Injuries
De’Aaron Fox (Out)
It simply isn’t going to pay off for me to waste a lot of keystrokes here. We have a notoriously unpredictable Kings team taking on a similarly slow-paced Grizzlies team that should be upset after giving up 141 points to the Warriors on Saturday. While Memphis isn’t the strong defensive unit they once were, they still aren’t generally fun to pick on given the fact that they play at the slowest pace in all of the league. The Kings also have some of the most bizarre rotations in the league. If you want to pick a dart throw play out of this group, be my guest, but know that the floor is ridiculously low on virtually everyone.
Though they only used a nine man rotation in the last game, nobody played more than 34 minutes, and all nine players logged at least 16 minutes of court time. Starters occasionally get pulled and don’t see the court again. Don’t be fooled by that nine man rotation. The safest option at this point very well could be Willie Cauley-Stein. Even though he generally comes off the bench, he has averaged 17 points and nine rebounds over the last four games while playing 30 minutes per contest. Zach Randolph is a little more unpredictable, but the GPP upside is there. George Hill would be the selection if I was forced to choose one of the guards, but I will likely stay away from the whole group.
Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Per Game: 96.9 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.5 (13 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 1.6 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.8 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 95.4 (30 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hill | $5,300 | $4,700 | $9,200 | 20.2 | 5.5 | 27.0 | 6.4 | 0.75 | 16.2% | 7 | 10 | 19 |
| Buddy Hield | $4,900 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 21.5 | -2.7 | 23.0 | -0.6 | 0.93 | 21.9% | 16 | 16 | 17 |
| Garrett Temple | $4,400 | $3,900 | $8,100 | 16.7 | 2.5 | 25.1 | 2.2 | 0.67 | 14.8% | 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Skal Labissiere | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 14.6 | -0.4 | 15.8 | -3.4 | 0.92 | 19.9% | 19 | 10 | 12 |
| Zach Randolph | $5,700 | $6,200 | $14,000 | 28.4 | -0.9 | 25.8 | -1.2 | 1.10 | 24.6% | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | $4,900 | $4,600 | $8,900 | 19.4 | 4.8 | 25.3 | 5.0 | 0.77 | 17.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Willie Cauley-Stein, Zach Randolph, George Hill
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder – 7:00 PM ET
| Dallas Mavericks | Oklahoma City Thunder | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
| Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Dennis Smith | Wesley Matthews | Harrison Barnes | Maxi Kleber | Dirk Nowitzki | Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Alex Abrines | Josh Huestis | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 5 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 15 | DvP | 14 | 13 | 12 | 17 | 14 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 2 | 20 | 11 | 19 | 15 | DRPM Rat. | 28 | 27 | 28 | 9 | 18 | |
Dallas Mavericks
Notable Injuries
None
The last game featured the two slowest-paced teams in the league, and now this one features the teams that rank 27th and 24th in tempo. I promise that there are more favorable fantasy matchups on the next page. This Dallas team is never fun to target, especially against an improving Oklahoma City squad that has a solid defense. This will be a slow paced game, and OKC ranks in the top five in overall defensive efficiency. Assuming Paul George is out for the Thunder, the matchup gets a little better. Andre Roberson is already out, so Harrison Barnes your strongest option here. His outlook gets a massive boost if the Thunder are missing their two strongest wing defenders. The power forward and center spots for Dallas are basically wastelands, and I am not chasing the occasional upside of Maxi Kleber here.
If you are searching for a backcourt option, this could be one of the final chances to buy low on Dennis Smith Jr. He put up a triple double on Friday against the Pelicans and finally seems healthy again. He will have to run the show here and certainly won’t be intimidated by Russell Westbrook. Don’t chase the occasional big game from Wesley Matthews in a below average matchup. Smith and Barnes are the only reasonable targets from this side of the game.
Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Per Game: 99.9 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 14)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.6 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.9 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.6 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Smith | $5,400 | $5,200 | $10,900 | 24.8 | -8.0 | 27.6 | -1.5 | 0.90 | 26.5% | 12 | 5 | 2 |
| Wesley Matthews | $4,800 | $4,500 | $9,600 | 21.6 | -2.4 | 34.3 | -0.5 | 0.63 | 15.5% | 6 | 9 | 20 |
| Harrison Barnes | $6,200 | $6,100 | $11,000 | 30.4 | -5.6 | 34.7 | -1.5 | 0.88 | 22.0% | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| Maxi Kleber | $3,600 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 13.9 | 4.9 | 18.9 | -1.3 | 0.74 | 11.6% | 12 | 8 | 19 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | $5,400 | $5,300 | $10,500 | 23.3 | 10.0 | 25.4 | 2.8 | 0.92 | 18.5% | 3 | 15 | 15 |
| J.J. Barea | $5,200 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 24.0 | 3.4 | 22.9 | 1.7 | 1.05 | 25.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Harrison Barnes
Secondary Plays – Dennis Smith Jr.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Notable Injuries
Andre Roberson (Out)
Paul George (Doubtful)
There could be a lot of minutes to go around on the wings for the Thunder today if both Roberson and George are out. Josh Huestis played 28 minutes against the Bucks the other night sans George, and he might enter the starting lineup tonight. Alex Abrines and Jerami Grant would also pick up some extra minutes. Huestis would be your safe option, while Grant carries some GPP potential. Carmelo Anthony would also be tasked with more of a role, and CourtIQ tells us that Anthony sees a 6% usage boost with Roberson and George off the floor this year. Anthony was very much a disappointment on Friday, but I expect a better performance tonight.
Of course, I have buried the top story here, which is that Russell Westbrook should absolutely smash with two starters out of the lineup. Lock and load him in there as the top overall play on the board tonight, despite the slow paced matchup. Dallas has ranked at the bottom of the league in rebounding in each of the last two years, so Steven Adams should dominate on the glass as well. There are quite a few fantasy options for the Thunder because of the injury situation. Be sure to keep an eye on George’s status as we get closer to tip off, as that is a big deal here.
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 103.5 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 14)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.6 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.6 (27 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $11,900 | $11,600 | $23,900 | 52.6 | 8.0 | 36.3 | 0.2 | 1.45 | 34.1% | 24 | 14 | 28 |
| Alex Abrines | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,300 | 9.1 | -5.9 | 16.4 | -9.0 | 0.55 | 11.1% | 7 | 13 | 27 |
| Josh Huestis | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,300 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 0.59 | 9.5% | 28 | 12 | 28 |
| Carmelo Anthony | $5,900 | $6,300 | $12,500 | 29.8 | -0.9 | 33.0 | 0.1 | 0.90 | 22.4% | 3 | 17 | 9 |
| Steven Adams | $7,000 | $6,400 | $12,600 | 30.9 | 5.2 | 32.2 | -0.3 | 0.96 | 14.1% | 25 | 14 | 18 |
| Jerami Grant | $3,600 | $3,600 | $6,900 | 16.9 | -4.4 | 21.0 | -2.4 | 0.81 | 14.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony, Steven Adams
Secondary Plays – Josh Huestis, Jerami Grant (GPP)
NOTE: The above analysis assumes that Paul George is out