NBA Grind Down: Sunday, December 3rd

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

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Legend & FAQ


Orlando Magic at New York Knicks – 3:30 PM ET

Orlando Magic New York Knicks
orlandonba Vegas Total newyorknba Vegas Total
Vegas Spread Vegas Spread
Implied Team Total Implied Team Total
Pace Projection +/- -1.4 Pace Projection +/- 2.6
Projected Starters Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Jonathon Simmons Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic Projected Starters Jarrett Jack Courtney Lee Tim Hardaway Kristaps Porzingis Enes Kanter
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 27 15 16 4 8 DvP 29 30 21 27 19
DRPM Rat. 9 19 21 20 14 DRPM Rat. 22 28 30 27 7

Orlando Magic

Notable Injuries

Jonathan Isaac (Out)
Terrence Ross (Out)

Happy Sunday, Grinders! We have five NBA games on tap for today, but this game is essentially irrelevant. There is only one afternoon game in the bunch, and the other four games all take place at night. The only access to this game is with an “all day” slate or some sort of early slate that excludes the late night start. I would simply ignore those slates and play the four game main slate. There’s no need to get cute, and this game is by no means a must play contest. Though I will stick with the later games, I will give a quick synopsis of my thoughts on this one for those of you who insist on playing the all day slate.

Orlando is still scuffling badly, as they have now lost ten of their last eleven games. The only win in that stretch was a fairly impressive one over the Thunder, but the point is that this team is struggling. With both Jonathan Isaac and Terrence Ross on the shelf, extra minutes are available on the wing for guys like Evan Fournier and Jonathan Simmons. Simmons has been starting over the last few games, and his results have been up and down in that stretch. However, the good news is that he took 18 shots against Golden State in the last game, and he led the team with 39 minutes of court time. He remains a high upside mid-range play. Elfrid Payton draws a fine matchup with Jarrett Jack and is an interesting tournament option. The strongest play on Orlando just might be Aaron Gordon. He has been lighting the world on fire with 69 points and 22 rebounds over the last two games, and he might finally be ready to hit his high ceiling more often.

Orlando Magic Offense

Points Per Game: 108.1 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 8)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 8)

Matchup vs. New York Knicks

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.2 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.3 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (20 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 +/- Minutes L4 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP DRPM Rat.
Elfrid Payton $7,300 $6,200 29.0 9.7 26.4 2.5 1.10 20.9% 51.6% 27 9
Evan Fournier $6,000 $5,600 28.3 -5.1 32.1 1.6 0.88 20.7% 58.8% 15 19
Jonathon Simmons $5,400 $4,900 20.6 -1.9 26.1 6.6 0.79 20.8% 58.2% 16 21
Aaron Gordon $8,100 $7,800 36.6 14.3 33.0 5.7 1.11 19.3% 62.6% 4 20
Nikola Vucevic $7,500 $7,200 34.2 -1.4 29.6 1.9 1.15 21.6% 55.2% 8 14

Elite Plays – Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Simmons

Secondary Plays – Evan Fournier, Elfrid Payton (GPP), Nikola Vucevic


New York Knicks

Notable Injuries

Frank Ntilikina (Probable)
Kristaps Porzingis (Questionable)

The big key here is whether or not Porzingis suits up, but the good news is that we should know before the game tips off, since this is the first game of the day. If we utilize CourtIQ to take Porzingis off the floor, we see that Tim Hardaway Jr. gets a whopping 5.8% boost in usage and becomes the primary option in the offense. If Porzingis is out, Hardaway is a fantastic play in all formats. If Porzingis is in, Hardaway is more of a secondary option. Orlando ranks at the bottom of the league in defending both guard positions, so you can definitely make a case for Jarrett Jack as well. Even with Frank Ntilikina expected to return today, Jack has the upper hand for minutes at this point. He’s obviously not a high upside play, but he’s worth a look as a value. However, the fact that he split minutes evenly with Ramon Sessions the other night is a bit of a concern. That puts Jack down to secondary status.

There are other big men that get a boost if Porzingis is out, simply for the fact that there will be more minutes available. Michael Beasley and Doug McDermott would stand to benefit and would be risk/reward value options. Enes Kanter returned from injury the other night and posted 22 points and 14 rebounds in a big win over the Heat, and he is definitely in play for GPP formats himself, regardless of the status of Porzingis.

New York Knicks Offense

Points Per Game: 104.5 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 8)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Orlando Magic

Points Allowed Per Game: 111.8 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.8 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.9 (6 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 +/- Minutes L4 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP DRPM Rat.
Jarrett Jack $4,800 $4,000 18.5 4.6 26.4 1.1 0.70 15.7% 46.2% 29 22
Courtney Lee $5,500 $5,000 25.0 5.3 32.7 0.9 0.76 15.2% 59.5% 30 28
Tim Hardaway $6,500 $6,800 30.0 -4.8 34.1 1.6 0.88 22.3% 53.5% 21 30
Kristaps Porzingis $8,800 $8,200 41.0 -15.5 31.5 -7.6 1.30 29.8% 57.6% 27 27
Enes Kanter $6,700 $6,000 30.4 11.9 26.1 -0.8 1.17 17.7% 66.7% 19 7
Kyle O’Quinn $3,900 $4,300 20.0 7.4 16.8 5.2 1.19 15.6% 57.9% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Tim Hardaway Jr. (if Porzingis is out), Enes Kanter (GPP), Kristaps Porzingis (if active)

Secondary Plays – Tim Hardaway Jr. (if Porzingis is active), Jarrett Jack, Michael Beasley and Doug McDermott (if Porzingis is out)


San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder – 7:00 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs Oklahoma City Thunder
sanantonionba Vegas Total 198.5 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 198.5
Vegas Spread 4.5 Vegas Spread -4.5
Implied Team Total 97.0 Implied Team Total 101.5
Pace Projection +/- -1.1 Pace Projection +/- -3.5
Projected Starters Tony Parker Danny Green Kyle Anderson LaMarcus Aldridge Pau Gasol Projected Starters Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Paul George Carmelo Anthony Steven Adams
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 8 1 3 15 18 DvP 1 10 9 9 7
DRPM Rat. 1 1 1 13 7 DRPM Rat. 14 1 2 16 3

San Antonio Spurs

Notable Injuries

Kawhi Leonard (Out)

EDITOR’S NOTELaMarcus Aldridge is OUT today for rest purposes. Rudy Gay and Tony Parker are also OUT.

For all intents and purposes, this game is the start of the Sunday slate. It marks the beginning of the four game main slate, as San Antonio travels to take on an Oklahoma City team that has been very disappointing in the early going. The Spurs have won four in a row and are starting to get healthy, as Tony Parker returned at the start of the week. He is not playing a ton of minutes, so the point guard situation is a hands-off spot for the Spurs right now. Danny Green has hit the skids and did not score a single point against Memphis the other night. To put it simply, I have no interest in any of the guards for the Spurs right now.

You can also cross Kyle Anderson off the list. Though he has arguably been San Antonio’s second best player this year behind LaMarcus Aldridge, he will have to face off against the tough wing defense of Paul George and Andre Roberson. No thanks. Pau Gasol doesn’t play enough minutes to make a major difference at this stage of his career, and I am not targeting him against Steven Adams. We are crossing them all off the list!

The only Spurs player worth targeting, as is often the case, is LaMarcus Aldridge. He is the only player on the team that is averaging more than 30 minutes per game, and he leads the team in scoring by more than ten points per game. The individual matchup here isn’t that bad against Carmelo Anthony, either. Aldridge should definitely be the go-to offensive option in this game, and he is worth a look in any format on a short slate.

UPDATE – As you can see above, the Spurs are resting some players today. With Aldridge, Gay, and Parker all out, you can give Kyle Anderson a massive boost. Pau Gasol might also play a few more minutes, and Patty Mills might be worth a look as a value point guard option. Davis Bertans and Joffrey Lauvergne could see a few more minutes, too, and I might be interested if we get confirmation that one of them will start.

San Antonio Spurs Offense

Points Per Game: 101.5 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 97.0 (8 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -4.5 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.7 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (17 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 +/- Minutes L4 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP DRPM Rat.
Tony Parker $3,500 $3,700 $7,200 14.4 0.0 16.1 0.0 0.89 24.5% 42.9% 8 1
Danny Green $4,400 $4,200 $8,600 22.9 -0.3 29.0 1.1 0.79 15.4% 52.6% 1 1
Kyle Anderson $5,300 $5,300 $11,500 25.6 2.9 27.7 1.7 0.92 14.7% 56.4% 3 1
LaMarcus Aldridge $8,400 $8,100 $15,000 39.9 6.1 33.2 1.7 1.20 26.5% 57.3% 15 13
Pau Gasol $6,100 $5,500 $10,600 29.3 2.4 25.8 3.7 1.13 18.4% 60.4% 18 7
Patty Mills $4,100 $3,900 $7,400 19.0 0.9 26.1 -0.8 0.73 18.2% 48.3% N/A N/A
Rudy Gay $4,800 $4,700 $9,000 23.4 4.5 21.9 -0.1 1.07 22.6% 55.8% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Kyle Anderson

Secondary Plays – Pau Gasol, Patty Mills


Oklahoma City Thunder

Notable Injuries

Andre Roberson (Probable)
Steven Adams (Probable)

Though it took Russell Westbrook a while to adapt to life with two new high-usage teammates in Paul George and Carmelo Anthony, Westbrook has finally figured it out. He has turned on the jets over the last few weeks, posting the following fantasy point totals in the process (DK scoring):

11/20 NO = 70 11/22 vs. GS = 67 11/24 vs. DET = 66 11/25 DAL = 60
11/29 @ ORL = 70
12/1 vs. MIN = 49

That is an average of 64 fantasy points over his last six games. Not too shabby, eh? While we don’t love targeting players against the Spurs, Westbrook is locked in as an elite option right now. The Spurs rank near the top of the league in DvP against every position, but I’ll throw matchups out the window with a red hot Westbrook. He definitely takes priority over the other options on this team. George has been playing well of late, too, but it’s Westbrook or bust for me with the elite options on the Thunder. George can be viewed as a secondary play. Steven Adams is coming off a fantastic game where he shot 11-for-11 from the floor, and his price simply doesn’t seem to budge. He’s far too cheap at $5,600 on DraftKings, and he’s in play on the other sites as well.

Oklahoma City Thunder Offense

Points Per Game: 102.7 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.5 (6 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -1.2 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs

Points Allowed Per Game: 97.5 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.7 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.5 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.8 (29 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 +/- Minutes L4 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP DRPM Rat.
Russell Westbrook $10,800 $10,100 $19,900 49.6 7.5 35.4 2.9 1.40 32.8% 49.6% 1 14
Andre Roberson $4,100 $3,500 $6,800 14.8 4.6 24.8 5.0 0.60 8.1% 52.3% 10 1
Paul George $9,000 $8,200 $14,700 40.4 3.0 37.2 1.5 1.08 23.4% 54.4% 9 2
Carmelo Anthony $7,100 $6,500 $13,500 32.1 -7.0 32.3 -0.6 1.00 23.6% 53.5% 9 16
Steven Adams $6,700 $5,600 $11,000 29.4 -2.2 31.1 0.2 0.95 13.5% 65.8% 7 3
Jerami Grant $3,700 $3,800 $7,400 19.3 -1.5 22.5 -2.4 0.86 14.3% 58.4% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Steven Adams (DK)

Secondary Plays – Steven Adams (FD & FDRAFT), Paul George


Los Angeles Clippers at Minnesota Timberwolves – 7:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers Minnesota Timberwolves
laclippersnba Vegas Total 212.5 minnesotanba Vegas Total 212.5
Vegas Spread 12.0 Vegas Spread -12.0
Implied Team Total 100.3 Implied Team Total 112.3
Pace Projection +/- -1.3 Pace Projection +/- -1.0
Projected Starters Lou Williams Austin Rivers Wesley Johnson Montrezl Harrell DeAndre Jordan Projected Starters Jeff Teague Jimmy Butler Andrew Wiggins Taj Gibson Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 22 11 17 1 24 DvP 9 29 27 17 26
DRPM Rat. 10 2 28 6 30 DRPM Rat. 28 24 7 8 10

Los Angeles Clippers

Notable Injuries

Blake Griffin (Out)
Patrick Beverley (Out)
Danilo Gallinari (Out)
Milos Teodosic (Out)

Well, this is game where we could just send five guys out for each team and let them play the whole game. The Clippers are a team that has to play their starters heavy minutes simply because half of the team is injured. Say goodbye to Blake Griffin, Patrick Beverley, Danilo Gallinari, and Milos Teodosic. That’s a lot of injured bodies. We saw the Clippers use a deep rotation in their last game, but that is because they got waxed by Dallas on the road. In games that stay close, you will definitely see them use a tight rotation. The big question mark is who is going to score for this team. With Griffin and Gallinari on the shelf, there are not a lot of primary options to use on offense. If we check CourtIQ and take the four injured players off the floor, we see that Lou Williams leads the team with a 34% usage rate. He is starting out of necessity now, and he is a fine fantasy option despite his elevated price point. I don’t love the matchup here against a Wolves team with strong wing defenders, but Williams has to be considered in all formats.

Austin Rivers and DeAndre Jordan also get a boost from the injury absences. Rivers should run the offense more often, while Jordan is really the only Clippers player capable of grabbing a lot of rebounds. He snagged 17 of them in 31 minutes against Dallas the other night despite the blowout loss. The power forward spot will be manned by a committee of Montrezl Harrell and Sam Dekker. Both are in play as value options. Harrell drew the start the other night and logged more playing time, and he was also more effective, so he is the preferred play between the two. There is a lot of usage to go around with all the injuries, so don’t hesitate to target a few Clippers on a four game slate.

Los Angeles Clippers Offense

Points Per Game: 105.9 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.3 (7 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -5.7 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.4 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.9 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.4 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (19 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 +/- Minutes L4 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP DRPM Rat.
Lou Williams $8,100 $7,000 $13,100 29.1 10.3 29.3 7.8 0.99 25.0% 59.7% 22 10
Austin Rivers $6,400 $5,800 $13,100 24.5 9.4 33.6 3.1 0.73 19.2% 48.3% 11 2
Wesley Johnson $5,100 $4,400 $8,900 19.0 3.0 25.1 9.1 0.76 11.6% 59.1% 17 28
Montrezl Harrell $4,400 $3,800 $7,400 10.3 2.2 9.4 6.2 1.10 16.4% 59.0% 1 6
DeAndre Jordan $7,500 $6,800 $12,900 31.2 -2.0 32.3 -0.4 0.96 10.2% 66.4% 24 30
Sam Dekker $3,700 $3,500 $6,900 7.8 5.8 10.1 3.6 0.77 14.8% 46.4% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Austin Rivers, DeAndre Jordan, Lou Williams (GPP), Montrezl Harrell (value)

Secondary Plays – Lou Williams (Cash), Sam Dekker, Wesley Johnson


Minnesota Timberwolves

Notable Injuries

Karl-Anthony Towns (Probable)

In some respects, I love Tom Thibodeau. If every coach was like him, we could bank on big time fantasy production from meaningful players on a nightly basis. Thibodeau has long been known to run his starters ragged. In the last game, all five Minnesota starters played at least 34 minutes. Only three bench players logged meaningful time. Eight man rotations are music to fantasy players’ ears. However, the one negative is that he isn’t always forthcoming about injury news. We did not have news on Jeff Teague before lineup lock on three consecutive slates, making it tough to count on Tyus Jones, who filled in admirably while Teague was out. However, news is a minor concern here tonight, as the only Minnesota injury note worth monitoring is Karl-Anthony Towns, and it sounds like he is going to be good to go tonight.

As usual, you can make a case for all five starters on this team. The minutes are going to be there for all of them. Even though Jones played well while Teague was out, he was relegated to just 11 minutes of court time in Teague’s first game back. I love the matchup for the guards here, as Rivers and Williams are not known as strong defenders. Jimmy Butler has played better since struggling to start the year, and he is a fine play in all formats tonight. The absence of Griffin will be felt on the interior, putting Taj Gibson and the aforementioned Towns into play. Andrew Wiggins is probably the starter that I am least excited about, as he doesn’t add much in the peripheral categories and remains scoring-dependent.

In short, there are five Minnesota starters. All five will play big minutes barring a blowout. On a four game slate, there is merit to considering all of them. Minnesota has a very high implied team total of 113 points in this game, so fire away with confidence.

Minnesota Timberwolves Offense

Points Per Game: 107.7 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.3 (3 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 4.6 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.3 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.3 (16 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 +/- Minutes L4 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP DRPM Rat.
Jeff Teague $6,600 $6,600 $12,100 32.2 -4.6 33.9 0.1 0.95 20.8% 53.5% 9 28
Jimmy Butler $8,700 $7,400 $14,500 35.5 6.8 36.4 0.8 0.97 21.6% 52.9% 29 24
Andrew Wiggins $6,700 $6,900 $12,900 31.2 3.7 36.9 1.7 0.85 21.3% 52.1% 27 7
Taj Gibson $5,000 $6,100 $11,600 25.8 2.1 32.6 5.3 0.79 12.2% 59.3% 17 8
Karl-Anthony Towns $9,000 $8,300 $15,200 40.3 -1.8 34.4 -0.6 1.17 20.7% 61.7% 26 10
Tyus Jones $3,600 $4,200 $8,300 13.7 17.5 17.9 14.9 0.76 12.4% 50.3% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Jeff Teague, Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Karl-Anthony Towns

Secondary Plays – Andrew Wiggins


Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat – 7:00 PM ET

Golden State Warriors Miami Heat
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 218.5 miaminba Vegas Total 218.5
Vegas Spread -10.0 Vegas Spread 10.0
Implied Team Total 114.3 Implied Team Total 104.3
Pace Projection +/- -1.4 Pace Projection +/- 3.8
Projected Starters Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia Projected Starters Goran Dragic Dion Waiters Josh Richardson Justise Winslow Bam Adebayo
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 10 12 12 21 6 DvP 12 9 22 28 15
DRPM Rat. 24 13 2 5 20 DRPM Rat. 6 22 12 1 1

Golden State Warriors

Notable Injuries

Kevin Durant (Probable)
Stephen Curry (Probable)
Andre Iguodala (Questionable)

It has been a rocky week for the Warriors in terms of the team’s health, but they appear to be nearing full strength at this point. Only Andre Iguodala checks in with a questionable tag today, and it sounds like Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant will be good to go. When the Warriors use the probable tag, there usually isn’t a whole lot of cause for concern. Obviously, the primary pieces on the Warriors are always fine options, as they bring high floors and ceilings to the table every single day. However, this isn’t necessarily the best of matchups on the road against a Miami team that will definitely try to slow the pace of this game down. This is a four game slate without a lot of slam dunk value, so it’s difficult to prioritize many pieces from this Golden State team.

If I had to pick one of the top plays from the Warriors tonight, it would actually be Draymond Green. He carries a lower price tag than Curry or Durant, and the Heat are weaker on the interior sans Hassan Whiteside. Green does enough things throughout the box score to where he can get there without scoring a ton, as well. That’s not to say that Curry and Durant aren’t great plays, but we do have a salary cap to deal with. Klay Thompson isn’t really on my radar today, but he has enough upside and opportunity to make the list as a secondary play. Omri Casspi has been the best player off the bench for this team and would be worth a look if Durant happens to be out or limited by surprise, or if you think this game is going to be a blowout.

Golden State Warriors Offense

Points Per Game: 118.0 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.3 (2 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -3.8 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.8 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.9 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (20 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 +/- Minutes L4 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP DRPM Rat.
Stephen Curry $9,900 $9,400 $18,400 44.9 -0.7 32.6 3.7 1.38 28.7% 63.9% 10 24
Klay Thompson $7,000 $6,700 $12,500 32.4 4.5 33.1 2.6 0.98 20.8% 60.6% 12 13
Kevin Durant $10,300 $9,100 $19,100 45.0 1.9 34.4 2.0 1.31 24.7% 64.7% 12 2
Draymond Green $8,000 $7,300 $13,500 35.1 3.8 31.7 2.6 1.11 15.5% 57.2% 21 5
Zaza Pachulia $4,000 $3,300 $6,000 15.4 6.9 14.6 1.2 1.05 13.3% 56.8% 6 20
Omri Casspi $3,500 $3,400 $6,700 14.4 4.0 14.1 10.9 1.02 14.3% 66.3% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Draymond Green, Stephen Curry

Secondary Plays – Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Omri Casspi


Miami Heat

Notable Injuries

Hassan Whiteside (Out)

This will be a pace up game from the Miami side of the ledger, with the biggest question being whether or not they can keep this game close against the high powered Warriors. There is a lot of opportunity up front with Whiteside sidelined, so that is where we can start focusing our attention. Bam Adebayo has been drawing the starts, but he played just 18 minutes the other night. James Johnson and Kelly Olynyk have been playing more and are better options off the bench. Both posted decent all around nights in a win over the Hornets on Friday night. You can definitely consider either player on a short slate of games.

As far as the backcourt goes, it hasn’t been the greatest of years for Goran Dragic. He has struggled and has seen his minutes dip at times, and his numbers have almost been alarming. He posted just seven points, four rebounds, and five assists to go along with five turnovers the other night, and that was in a matchup against the notoriously weak defense of Michael Carter-Williams. I want nothing to do with him until he gets things figured out. Josh Richardson exploded with 27 points in the game and might stand to benefit some with Whiteside on the shelf. We all know that Dion Waiters loves to shoot, and he can be considered in tournament settings. However, I will largely focus my attention on the frontcourt.

Miami Heat Offense

Points Per Game: 100.2 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (5 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 4.1 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.3 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.6 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.2 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.1 (5 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 +/- Minutes L4 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP DRPM Rat.
Goran Dragic $5,900 $6,400 $12,600 29.4 -10.8 32.5 -5.6 0.90 23.7% 57.5% 12 6
Dion Waiters $6,000 $6,000 $11,800 25.3 -1.8 31.3 -1.4 0.81 23.8% 49.0% 9 22
Josh Richardson $5,000 $4,600 $8,800 20.0 3.1 32.5 -3.4 0.62 14.0% 46.4% 22 12
Justise Winslow $3,800 $3,900 $7,400 18.6 -0.6 23.3 -1.4 0.80 14.2% 47.9% 28 1
Bam Adebayo $4,700 $4,200 $8,600 13.2 11.6 14.7 7.7 0.90 11.4% 66.0% 15 1
Kelly Olynyk $5,000 $4,500 $8,800 19.1 -0.4 19.6 3.6 0.98 17.1% 65.9% N/A N/A
James Johnson $5,700 $5,700 $12,200 26.6 1.1 27.5 -0.7 0.97 18.5% 59.3% N/A N/A
Tyler Johnson $4,000 $4,100 $7,900 19.2 0.1 27.1 -0.8 0.71 17.0% 47.2% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – James Johnson, Kelly Olynyk

Secondary Plays – Dion Waiters (GPP), Josh Richardson, Bam Adebayo


Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers – 9:30 PM ET

Houston Rockets Los Angeles Lakers
houstonnba Vegas Total 225.0 lalakersnba Vegas Total 225.0
Vegas Spread -11.0 Vegas Spread 11.0
Implied Team Total 118.0 Implied Team Total 107.0
Pace Projection +/- 5.2 Pace Projection +/- 1.1
Projected Starters Chris Paul James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Clint Capela Projected Starters Lonzo Ball Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Brandon Ingram Larry Nance Brook Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 24 21 5 24 25 DvP 2 17 11 8 22
DRPM Rat. 3 6 20 3 12 DRPM Rat. 4 9 9 25 5

Houston Rockets

Notable Injuries

None

The old adage of “save the best for last” just might be true tonight. The final game of the day features the Rockets traveling to Los Angeles to face the Lakers. Both teams rank inside the top six in the NBA in tempo, while Houston ranks second in offensive efficiency. The Lakers also rank dead last in defensive efficiency. In other words, Houston should be able to score a ton of points in this game. They are fully healthy for the first time all year and should be ready to rock.

Chris Paul has been allowed to play around 30 minutes lately, and while that limit is a bit of a drag on his fantasy value, 30 minutes against the Lakers is roughly equal to 35 or so minutes against some other teams. While it’s easy to ignore him and just play James Harden, who always has massive upside, Paul is very much in play given the favorable matchup. Harden needs no analysis and is the top overall play on tonight’s slate. The team is also staggering some minutes so that Paul or Harden is on the court when the other one is on the bench. That’s good news for the value of both players.

As for the forward options, it’s tough to trust Trevor Ariza and Ryan Anderson on a nightly basis. They don’t see a ton of usage and rely on knocking down some three pointers to be relevant in fantasy formats. The good news is that should be likely to happen tonight in an up tempo game. Ariza can also add some upside with his defensive ability. Clint Capela is averaging 18 points and 11 rebounds per game over his last three contests and is averaging a double-double on the season. He’s very much capable of dominating against the Lakers, and he is a high upside option at center on a short slate. All five Houston starters are viable here. You can even add in Eric Gordon as a risk/reward option off the bench.

Houston Rockets Offense

Points Per Game: 113.9 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 118.0 (1 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 4.1 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.7 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.0 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.2 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.5 (2 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 +/- Minutes L4 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP DRPM Rat.
Chris Paul $8,400 $8,400 $15,900 37.0 0.9 28.1 1.6 1.32 22.0% 52.6% 24 3
James Harden $12,200 $11,900 $22,100 54.4 1.6 35.9 -1.0 1.52 34.5% 63.0% 21 6
Trevor Ariza $5,200 $5,100 $10,000 24.6 0.3 34.2 -4.1 0.72 12.9% 58.5% 5 20
Ryan Anderson $4,800 $4,800 $9,200 22.2 2.4 30.0 -4.4 0.74 14.1% 62.8% 24 3
Clint Capela $7,800 $7,100 $14,300 35.1 -0.9 25.9 -0.2 1.36 17.0% 67.7% 25 12
Eric Gordon $4,700 $4,900 $10,100 26.3 -10.8 31.6 -5.1 0.83 23.7% 55.9% N/A N/A
P.J. Tucker $3,700 $3,500 $7,300 18.6 -3.5 27.5 -1.2 0.68 9.0% 56.2% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Chris Paul, James Harden, Clint Capela

Secondary Plays – Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon (GPP)


Los Angeles Lakers

Notable Injuries

Lonzo Ball (Questionable)

The biggest news to keep an eye on with tonight’s slate is the status of Lonzo Ball. He played through injury last night, and it sounds like he might be rested on the tail end of a back-to-back set even if he is feeling better. Should Ball be able to play in this game, I am not interested in him since he is banged up and draws a very difficult matchup with Chris Paul. If Ball is unable to play this evening, Jordan Clarkson gets a huge boost as the likely starter at the point. He has been outplaying Ball for much of the season anyway. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has an uncomfortable price tag, but both KCP and Brandon Ingram have picked up their play over the past few weeks. In what profiles as the highest scoring game of the night, both of them are very strong options.

The power forward and center spots are much more difficult to peg. With both Larry Nance and Kyle Kuzma healthy, the Lakers have four options to fill two positions in Kuzma, Nance, Julius Randle, and Brook Lopez. In last night’s game against the Nuggets, Nance and Lopez played 24 minutes, while Randle played 22 and Kuzma logged 27. This is not a very fantasy-friendly situation. It’s a guessing game as to who is going to post the best lines from the group. I would opt for Kuzma if I had to choose one, but it’s definitely a GPP-only situation for the whole gang. One of them will likely hit value with upside here, but your guess is as good as mine as to who that will be.

Los Angeles Lakers Offense

Points Per Game: 106.6 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (4 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 0.4 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.1 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.6 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.1 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.4 (8 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 +/- Minutes L4 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP DRPM Rat.
Lonzo Ball $7,000 $6,700 $13,000 32.2 -2.2 33.4 1.3 0.96 18.4% 37.0% 2 4
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $6,300 $5,700 $12,200 28.8 7.8 34.9 3.5 0.83 16.3% 54.6% 17 9
Brandon Ingram $6,700 $6,300 $12,400 29.4 6.7 33.8 0.6 0.87 18.9% 51.5% 11 9
Larry Nance $6,200 $5,200 $11,200 26.2 4.2 23.7 2.4 1.11 13.3% 63.8% 8 25
Brook Lopez $4,600 $4,600 $8,900 26.1 -11.5 23.2 -4.4 1.12 21.8% 54.0% 22 5
Jordan Clarkson $5,300 $5,200 $10,100 23.7 3.3 22.6 3.1 1.05 26.0% 57.2% N/A N/A
Julius Randle $4,800 $5,000 $9,600 24.6 2.0 22.2 6.1 1.11 19.8% 59.4% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Jordan Clarkson (if Ball is out), Brandon Ingram, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Secondary Plays – Jordan Clarkson (if Ball is in), Kyle Kuzma (GPP), Julius Randle (GPP), Larry Nance (GPP)


About the Author

stlcardinals84
Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84)

Justin Van Zuiden (aka stlcardinals84) is a longtime RotoGrinders contributor and show host. He’s appeared in numerous Live Finals, has logged countless 6-figure wins in a host of different sports (including 5 in PGA), and is a former DFS Writer of the Year Nominee by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can find Justin’s ‘Covering The Bases’ series on weekends during the MLB season. He is also a main contributor of sports betting picks at our sister site, ScoresAndOdds, and is a co-host on the RotoGrinders Game Night show on SiriusXM. Follow Justin on X – @stlcardinals84