NBA Grind Down: Sunday, December 3rd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Orlando Magic at New York Knicks – 3:30 PM ET
| Orlando Magic | New York Knicks | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
| Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Jonathon Simmons | Aaron Gordon | Nikola Vucevic | Projected Starters | Jarrett Jack | Courtney Lee | Tim Hardaway | Kristaps Porzingis | Enes Kanter | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 27 | 15 | 16 | 4 | 8 | DvP | 29 | 30 | 21 | 27 | 19 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 9 | 19 | 21 | 20 | 14 | DRPM Rat. | 22 | 28 | 30 | 27 | 7 | |
Orlando Magic
Notable Injuries
Jonathan Isaac (Out)
Terrence Ross (Out)
Happy Sunday, Grinders! We have five NBA games on tap for today, but this game is essentially irrelevant. There is only one afternoon game in the bunch, and the other four games all take place at night. The only access to this game is with an “all day” slate or some sort of early slate that excludes the late night start. I would simply ignore those slates and play the four game main slate. There’s no need to get cute, and this game is by no means a must play contest. Though I will stick with the later games, I will give a quick synopsis of my thoughts on this one for those of you who insist on playing the all day slate.
Orlando is still scuffling badly, as they have now lost ten of their last eleven games. The only win in that stretch was a fairly impressive one over the Thunder, but the point is that this team is struggling. With both Jonathan Isaac and Terrence Ross on the shelf, extra minutes are available on the wing for guys like Evan Fournier and Jonathan Simmons. Simmons has been starting over the last few games, and his results have been up and down in that stretch. However, the good news is that he took 18 shots against Golden State in the last game, and he led the team with 39 minutes of court time. He remains a high upside mid-range play. Elfrid Payton draws a fine matchup with Jarrett Jack and is an interesting tournament option. The strongest play on Orlando just might be Aaron Gordon. He has been lighting the world on fire with 69 points and 22 rebounds over the last two games, and he might finally be ready to hit his high ceiling more often.
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 108.1 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 8)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 8)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.2 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.3 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $7,300 | $6,200 | 29.0 | 9.7 | 26.4 | 2.5 | 1.10 | 20.9% | 51.6% | 27 | 9 | |
| Evan Fournier | $6,000 | $5,600 | 28.3 | -5.1 | 32.1 | 1.6 | 0.88 | 20.7% | 58.8% | 15 | 19 | |
| Jonathon Simmons | $5,400 | $4,900 | 20.6 | -1.9 | 26.1 | 6.6 | 0.79 | 20.8% | 58.2% | 16 | 21 | |
| Aaron Gordon | $8,100 | $7,800 | 36.6 | 14.3 | 33.0 | 5.7 | 1.11 | 19.3% | 62.6% | 4 | 20 | |
| Nikola Vucevic | $7,500 | $7,200 | 34.2 | -1.4 | 29.6 | 1.9 | 1.15 | 21.6% | 55.2% | 8 | 14 |
Elite Plays – Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Simmons
Secondary Plays – Evan Fournier, Elfrid Payton (GPP), Nikola Vucevic
New York Knicks
Notable Injuries
Frank Ntilikina (Probable)
Kristaps Porzingis (Questionable)
The big key here is whether or not Porzingis suits up, but the good news is that we should know before the game tips off, since this is the first game of the day. If we utilize CourtIQ to take Porzingis off the floor, we see that Tim Hardaway Jr. gets a whopping 5.8% boost in usage and becomes the primary option in the offense. If Porzingis is out, Hardaway is a fantastic play in all formats. If Porzingis is in, Hardaway is more of a secondary option. Orlando ranks at the bottom of the league in defending both guard positions, so you can definitely make a case for Jarrett Jack as well. Even with Frank Ntilikina expected to return today, Jack has the upper hand for minutes at this point. He’s obviously not a high upside play, but he’s worth a look as a value. However, the fact that he split minutes evenly with Ramon Sessions the other night is a bit of a concern. That puts Jack down to secondary status.
There are other big men that get a boost if Porzingis is out, simply for the fact that there will be more minutes available. Michael Beasley and Doug McDermott would stand to benefit and would be risk/reward value options. Enes Kanter returned from injury the other night and posted 22 points and 14 rebounds in a big win over the Heat, and he is definitely in play for GPP formats himself, regardless of the status of Porzingis.
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.5 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 8)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 8)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 111.8 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.8 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.9 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack | $4,800 | $4,000 | 18.5 | 4.6 | 26.4 | 1.1 | 0.70 | 15.7% | 46.2% | 29 | 22 | |
| Courtney Lee | $5,500 | $5,000 | 25.0 | 5.3 | 32.7 | 0.9 | 0.76 | 15.2% | 59.5% | 30 | 28 | |
| Tim Hardaway | $6,500 | $6,800 | 30.0 | -4.8 | 34.1 | 1.6 | 0.88 | 22.3% | 53.5% | 21 | 30 | |
| Kristaps Porzingis | $8,800 | $8,200 | 41.0 | -15.5 | 31.5 | -7.6 | 1.30 | 29.8% | 57.6% | 27 | 27 | |
| Enes Kanter | $6,700 | $6,000 | 30.4 | 11.9 | 26.1 | -0.8 | 1.17 | 17.7% | 66.7% | 19 | 7 | |
| Kyle O’Quinn | $3,900 | $4,300 | 20.0 | 7.4 | 16.8 | 5.2 | 1.19 | 15.6% | 57.9% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Tim Hardaway Jr. (if Porzingis is out), Enes Kanter (GPP), Kristaps Porzingis (if active)
Secondary Plays – Tim Hardaway Jr. (if Porzingis is active), Jarrett Jack, Michael Beasley and Doug McDermott (if Porzingis is out)
San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder – 7:00 PM ET
| San Antonio Spurs | Oklahoma City Thunder | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 198.5 | | Vegas Total | 198.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 97.0 | Implied Team Total | 101.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kyle Anderson | LaMarcus Aldridge | Pau Gasol | Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 8 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 18 | DvP | 1 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 7 | DRPM Rat. | 14 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 3 | |
San Antonio Spurs
Notable Injuries
Kawhi Leonard (Out)
EDITOR’S NOTE – LaMarcus Aldridge is OUT today for rest purposes. Rudy Gay and Tony Parker are also OUT.
For all intents and purposes, this game is the start of the Sunday slate. It marks the beginning of the four game main slate, as San Antonio travels to take on an Oklahoma City team that has been very disappointing in the early going. The Spurs have won four in a row and are starting to get healthy, as Tony Parker returned at the start of the week. He is not playing a ton of minutes, so the point guard situation is a hands-off spot for the Spurs right now. Danny Green has hit the skids and did not score a single point against Memphis the other night. To put it simply, I have no interest in any of the guards for the Spurs right now.
You can also cross Kyle Anderson off the list. Though he has arguably been San Antonio’s second best player this year behind LaMarcus Aldridge, he will have to face off against the tough wing defense of Paul George and Andre Roberson. No thanks. Pau Gasol doesn’t play enough minutes to make a major difference at this stage of his career, and I am not targeting him against Steven Adams. We are crossing them all off the list!
The only Spurs player worth targeting, as is often the case, is LaMarcus Aldridge. He is the only player on the team that is averaging more than 30 minutes per game, and he leads the team in scoring by more than ten points per game. The individual matchup here isn’t that bad against Carmelo Anthony, either. Aldridge should definitely be the go-to offensive option in this game, and he is worth a look in any format on a short slate.
UPDATE – As you can see above, the Spurs are resting some players today. With Aldridge, Gay, and Parker all out, you can give Kyle Anderson a massive boost. Pau Gasol might also play a few more minutes, and Patty Mills might be worth a look as a value point guard option. Davis Bertans and Joffrey Lauvergne could see a few more minutes, too, and I might be interested if we get confirmation that one of them will start.
San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Per Game: 101.5 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 97.0 (8 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -4.5 ( of 8)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.7 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Parker | $3,500 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 14.4 | 0.0 | 16.1 | 0.0 | 0.89 | 24.5% | 42.9% | 8 | 1 |
| Danny Green | $4,400 | $4,200 | $8,600 | 22.9 | -0.3 | 29.0 | 1.1 | 0.79 | 15.4% | 52.6% | 1 | 1 |
| Kyle Anderson | $5,300 | $5,300 | $11,500 | 25.6 | 2.9 | 27.7 | 1.7 | 0.92 | 14.7% | 56.4% | 3 | 1 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | $8,400 | $8,100 | $15,000 | 39.9 | 6.1 | 33.2 | 1.7 | 1.20 | 26.5% | 57.3% | 15 | 13 |
| Pau Gasol | $6,100 | $5,500 | $10,600 | 29.3 | 2.4 | 25.8 | 3.7 | 1.13 | 18.4% | 60.4% | 18 | 7 |
| Patty Mills | $4,100 | $3,900 | $7,400 | 19.0 | 0.9 | 26.1 | -0.8 | 0.73 | 18.2% | 48.3% | N/A | N/A |
| Rudy Gay | $4,800 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 23.4 | 4.5 | 21.9 | -0.1 | 1.07 | 22.6% | 55.8% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyle Anderson
Secondary Plays – Pau Gasol, Patty Mills
Oklahoma City Thunder
Notable Injuries
Andre Roberson (Probable)
Steven Adams (Probable)
Though it took Russell Westbrook a while to adapt to life with two new high-usage teammates in Paul George and Carmelo Anthony, Westbrook has finally figured it out. He has turned on the jets over the last few weeks, posting the following fantasy point totals in the process (DK scoring):
11/20 NO = 70
11/22 vs. GS = 67
11/24 vs. DET = 66
11/25 DAL = 60
11/29 @ ORL = 70
12/1 vs. MIN = 49
That is an average of 64 fantasy points over his last six games. Not too shabby, eh? While we don’t love targeting players against the Spurs, Westbrook is locked in as an elite option right now. The Spurs rank near the top of the league in DvP against every position, but I’ll throw matchups out the window with a red hot Westbrook. He definitely takes priority over the other options on this team. George has been playing well of late, too, but it’s Westbrook or bust for me with the elite options on the Thunder. George can be viewed as a secondary play. Steven Adams is coming off a fantastic game where he shot 11-for-11 from the floor, and his price simply doesn’t seem to budge. He’s far too cheap at $5,600 on DraftKings, and he’s in play on the other sites as well.
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 102.7 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.5 (6 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -1.2 ( of 8)
Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.5 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.7 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.5 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.8 (29 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $10,800 | $10,100 | $19,900 | 49.6 | 7.5 | 35.4 | 2.9 | 1.40 | 32.8% | 49.6% | 1 | 14 |
| Andre Roberson | $4,100 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 14.8 | 4.6 | 24.8 | 5.0 | 0.60 | 8.1% | 52.3% | 10 | 1 |
| Paul George | $9,000 | $8,200 | $14,700 | 40.4 | 3.0 | 37.2 | 1.5 | 1.08 | 23.4% | 54.4% | 9 | 2 |
| Carmelo Anthony | $7,100 | $6,500 | $13,500 | 32.1 | -7.0 | 32.3 | -0.6 | 1.00 | 23.6% | 53.5% | 9 | 16 |
| Steven Adams | $6,700 | $5,600 | $11,000 | 29.4 | -2.2 | 31.1 | 0.2 | 0.95 | 13.5% | 65.8% | 7 | 3 |
| Jerami Grant | $3,700 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 19.3 | -1.5 | 22.5 | -2.4 | 0.86 | 14.3% | 58.4% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Steven Adams (DK)
Secondary Plays – Steven Adams (FD & FDRAFT), Paul George
Los Angeles Clippers at Minnesota Timberwolves – 7:00 PM ET
| Los Angeles Clippers | Minnesota Timberwolves | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 212.5 | | Vegas Total | 212.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 12.0 | Vegas Spread | -12.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.3 | Implied Team Total | 112.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.3 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Lou Williams | Austin Rivers | Wesley Johnson | Montrezl Harrell | DeAndre Jordan | Projected Starters | Jeff Teague | Jimmy Butler | Andrew Wiggins | Taj Gibson | Karl-Anthony Towns | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 22 | 11 | 17 | 1 | 24 | DvP | 9 | 29 | 27 | 17 | 26 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 10 | 2 | 28 | 6 | 30 | DRPM Rat. | 28 | 24 | 7 | 8 | 10 | |
Los Angeles Clippers
Notable Injuries
Blake Griffin (Out)
Patrick Beverley (Out)
Danilo Gallinari (Out)
Milos Teodosic (Out)
Well, this is game where we could just send five guys out for each team and let them play the whole game. The Clippers are a team that has to play their starters heavy minutes simply because half of the team is injured. Say goodbye to Blake Griffin, Patrick Beverley, Danilo Gallinari, and Milos Teodosic. That’s a lot of injured bodies. We saw the Clippers use a deep rotation in their last game, but that is because they got waxed by Dallas on the road. In games that stay close, you will definitely see them use a tight rotation. The big question mark is who is going to score for this team. With Griffin and Gallinari on the shelf, there are not a lot of primary options to use on offense. If we check CourtIQ and take the four injured players off the floor, we see that Lou Williams leads the team with a 34% usage rate. He is starting out of necessity now, and he is a fine fantasy option despite his elevated price point. I don’t love the matchup here against a Wolves team with strong wing defenders, but Williams has to be considered in all formats.
Austin Rivers and DeAndre Jordan also get a boost from the injury absences. Rivers should run the offense more often, while Jordan is really the only Clippers player capable of grabbing a lot of rebounds. He snagged 17 of them in 31 minutes against Dallas the other night despite the blowout loss. The power forward spot will be manned by a committee of Montrezl Harrell and Sam Dekker. Both are in play as value options. Harrell drew the start the other night and logged more playing time, and he was also more effective, so he is the preferred play between the two. There is a lot of usage to go around with all the injuries, so don’t hesitate to target a few Clippers on a four game slate.
Los Angeles Clippers Offense
Points Per Game: 105.9 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.3 (7 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -5.7 ( of 8)
Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.4 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.9 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.4 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lou Williams | $8,100 | $7,000 | $13,100 | 29.1 | 10.3 | 29.3 | 7.8 | 0.99 | 25.0% | 59.7% | 22 | 10 |
| Austin Rivers | $6,400 | $5,800 | $13,100 | 24.5 | 9.4 | 33.6 | 3.1 | 0.73 | 19.2% | 48.3% | 11 | 2 |
| Wesley Johnson | $5,100 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 19.0 | 3.0 | 25.1 | 9.1 | 0.76 | 11.6% | 59.1% | 17 | 28 |
| Montrezl Harrell | $4,400 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 10.3 | 2.2 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 1.10 | 16.4% | 59.0% | 1 | 6 |
| DeAndre Jordan | $7,500 | $6,800 | $12,900 | 31.2 | -2.0 | 32.3 | -0.4 | 0.96 | 10.2% | 66.4% | 24 | 30 |
| Sam Dekker | $3,700 | $3,500 | $6,900 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 0.77 | 14.8% | 46.4% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Austin Rivers, DeAndre Jordan, Lou Williams (GPP), Montrezl Harrell (value)
Secondary Plays – Lou Williams (Cash), Sam Dekker, Wesley Johnson
Minnesota Timberwolves
Notable Injuries
Karl-Anthony Towns (Probable)
In some respects, I love Tom Thibodeau. If every coach was like him, we could bank on big time fantasy production from meaningful players on a nightly basis. Thibodeau has long been known to run his starters ragged. In the last game, all five Minnesota starters played at least 34 minutes. Only three bench players logged meaningful time. Eight man rotations are music to fantasy players’ ears. However, the one negative is that he isn’t always forthcoming about injury news. We did not have news on Jeff Teague before lineup lock on three consecutive slates, making it tough to count on Tyus Jones, who filled in admirably while Teague was out. However, news is a minor concern here tonight, as the only Minnesota injury note worth monitoring is Karl-Anthony Towns, and it sounds like he is going to be good to go tonight.
As usual, you can make a case for all five starters on this team. The minutes are going to be there for all of them. Even though Jones played well while Teague was out, he was relegated to just 11 minutes of court time in Teague’s first game back. I love the matchup for the guards here, as Rivers and Williams are not known as strong defenders. Jimmy Butler has played better since struggling to start the year, and he is a fine play in all formats tonight. The absence of Griffin will be felt on the interior, putting Taj Gibson and the aforementioned Towns into play. Andrew Wiggins is probably the starter that I am least excited about, as he doesn’t add much in the peripheral categories and remains scoring-dependent.
In short, there are five Minnesota starters. All five will play big minutes barring a blowout. On a four game slate, there is merit to considering all of them. Minnesota has a very high implied team total of 113 points in this game, so fire away with confidence.
Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 107.7 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.3 (3 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 4.6 ( of 8)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.3 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.3 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Teague | $6,600 | $6,600 | $12,100 | 32.2 | -4.6 | 33.9 | 0.1 | 0.95 | 20.8% | 53.5% | 9 | 28 |
| Jimmy Butler | $8,700 | $7,400 | $14,500 | 35.5 | 6.8 | 36.4 | 0.8 | 0.97 | 21.6% | 52.9% | 29 | 24 |
| Andrew Wiggins | $6,700 | $6,900 | $12,900 | 31.2 | 3.7 | 36.9 | 1.7 | 0.85 | 21.3% | 52.1% | 27 | 7 |
| Taj Gibson | $5,000 | $6,100 | $11,600 | 25.8 | 2.1 | 32.6 | 5.3 | 0.79 | 12.2% | 59.3% | 17 | 8 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $9,000 | $8,300 | $15,200 | 40.3 | -1.8 | 34.4 | -0.6 | 1.17 | 20.7% | 61.7% | 26 | 10 |
| Tyus Jones | $3,600 | $4,200 | $8,300 | 13.7 | 17.5 | 17.9 | 14.9 | 0.76 | 12.4% | 50.3% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jeff Teague, Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Karl-Anthony Towns
Secondary Plays – Andrew Wiggins
Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat – 7:00 PM ET
| Golden State Warriors | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 218.5 | | Vegas Total | 218.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -10.0 | Vegas Spread | 10.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 114.3 | Implied Team Total | 104.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | Zaza Pachulia | Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Dion Waiters | Josh Richardson | Justise Winslow | Bam Adebayo | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 10 | 12 | 12 | 21 | 6 | DvP | 12 | 9 | 22 | 28 | 15 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 24 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 20 | DRPM Rat. | 6 | 22 | 12 | 1 | 1 | |
Golden State Warriors
Notable Injuries
Kevin Durant (Probable)
Stephen Curry (Probable)
Andre Iguodala (Questionable)
It has been a rocky week for the Warriors in terms of the team’s health, but they appear to be nearing full strength at this point. Only Andre Iguodala checks in with a questionable tag today, and it sounds like Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant will be good to go. When the Warriors use the probable tag, there usually isn’t a whole lot of cause for concern. Obviously, the primary pieces on the Warriors are always fine options, as they bring high floors and ceilings to the table every single day. However, this isn’t necessarily the best of matchups on the road against a Miami team that will definitely try to slow the pace of this game down. This is a four game slate without a lot of slam dunk value, so it’s difficult to prioritize many pieces from this Golden State team.
If I had to pick one of the top plays from the Warriors tonight, it would actually be Draymond Green. He carries a lower price tag than Curry or Durant, and the Heat are weaker on the interior sans Hassan Whiteside. Green does enough things throughout the box score to where he can get there without scoring a ton, as well. That’s not to say that Curry and Durant aren’t great plays, but we do have a salary cap to deal with. Klay Thompson isn’t really on my radar today, but he has enough upside and opportunity to make the list as a secondary play. Omri Casspi has been the best player off the bench for this team and would be worth a look if Durant happens to be out or limited by surprise, or if you think this game is going to be a blowout.
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 118.0 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.3 (2 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -3.8 ( of 8)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.8 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.9 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | $9,900 | $9,400 | $18,400 | 44.9 | -0.7 | 32.6 | 3.7 | 1.38 | 28.7% | 63.9% | 10 | 24 |
| Klay Thompson | $7,000 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 32.4 | 4.5 | 33.1 | 2.6 | 0.98 | 20.8% | 60.6% | 12 | 13 |
| Kevin Durant | $10,300 | $9,100 | $19,100 | 45.0 | 1.9 | 34.4 | 2.0 | 1.31 | 24.7% | 64.7% | 12 | 2 |
| Draymond Green | $8,000 | $7,300 | $13,500 | 35.1 | 3.8 | 31.7 | 2.6 | 1.11 | 15.5% | 57.2% | 21 | 5 |
| Zaza Pachulia | $4,000 | $3,300 | $6,000 | 15.4 | 6.9 | 14.6 | 1.2 | 1.05 | 13.3% | 56.8% | 6 | 20 |
| Omri Casspi | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,700 | 14.4 | 4.0 | 14.1 | 10.9 | 1.02 | 14.3% | 66.3% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Draymond Green, Stephen Curry
Secondary Plays – Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Omri Casspi
Miami Heat
Notable Injuries
Hassan Whiteside (Out)
This will be a pace up game from the Miami side of the ledger, with the biggest question being whether or not they can keep this game close against the high powered Warriors. There is a lot of opportunity up front with Whiteside sidelined, so that is where we can start focusing our attention. Bam Adebayo has been drawing the starts, but he played just 18 minutes the other night. James Johnson and Kelly Olynyk have been playing more and are better options off the bench. Both posted decent all around nights in a win over the Hornets on Friday night. You can definitely consider either player on a short slate of games.
As far as the backcourt goes, it hasn’t been the greatest of years for Goran Dragic. He has struggled and has seen his minutes dip at times, and his numbers have almost been alarming. He posted just seven points, four rebounds, and five assists to go along with five turnovers the other night, and that was in a matchup against the notoriously weak defense of Michael Carter-Williams. I want nothing to do with him until he gets things figured out. Josh Richardson exploded with 27 points in the game and might stand to benefit some with Whiteside on the shelf. We all know that Dion Waiters loves to shoot, and he can be considered in tournament settings. However, I will largely focus my attention on the frontcourt.
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 100.2 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (5 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 4.1 ( of 8)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.3 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.6 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.2 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.1 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $5,900 | $6,400 | $12,600 | 29.4 | -10.8 | 32.5 | -5.6 | 0.90 | 23.7% | 57.5% | 12 | 6 |
| Dion Waiters | $6,000 | $6,000 | $11,800 | 25.3 | -1.8 | 31.3 | -1.4 | 0.81 | 23.8% | 49.0% | 9 | 22 |
| Josh Richardson | $5,000 | $4,600 | $8,800 | 20.0 | 3.1 | 32.5 | -3.4 | 0.62 | 14.0% | 46.4% | 22 | 12 |
| Justise Winslow | $3,800 | $3,900 | $7,400 | 18.6 | -0.6 | 23.3 | -1.4 | 0.80 | 14.2% | 47.9% | 28 | 1 |
| Bam Adebayo | $4,700 | $4,200 | $8,600 | 13.2 | 11.6 | 14.7 | 7.7 | 0.90 | 11.4% | 66.0% | 15 | 1 |
| Kelly Olynyk | $5,000 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 19.1 | -0.4 | 19.6 | 3.6 | 0.98 | 17.1% | 65.9% | N/A | N/A |
| James Johnson | $5,700 | $5,700 | $12,200 | 26.6 | 1.1 | 27.5 | -0.7 | 0.97 | 18.5% | 59.3% | N/A | N/A |
| Tyler Johnson | $4,000 | $4,100 | $7,900 | 19.2 | 0.1 | 27.1 | -0.8 | 0.71 | 17.0% | 47.2% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – James Johnson, Kelly Olynyk
Secondary Plays – Dion Waiters (GPP), Josh Richardson, Bam Adebayo
Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers – 9:30 PM ET
| Houston Rockets | Los Angeles Lakers | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 225.0 | | Vegas Total | 225.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -11.0 | Vegas Spread | 11.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 118.0 | Implied Team Total | 107.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 5.2 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Chris Paul | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Ryan Anderson | Clint Capela | Projected Starters | Lonzo Ball | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Brandon Ingram | Larry Nance | Brook Lopez | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 24 | 21 | 5 | 24 | 25 | DvP | 2 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 22 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 3 | 6 | 20 | 3 | 12 | DRPM Rat. | 4 | 9 | 9 | 25 | 5 | |
Houston Rockets
Notable Injuries
None
The old adage of “save the best for last” just might be true tonight. The final game of the day features the Rockets traveling to Los Angeles to face the Lakers. Both teams rank inside the top six in the NBA in tempo, while Houston ranks second in offensive efficiency. The Lakers also rank dead last in defensive efficiency. In other words, Houston should be able to score a ton of points in this game. They are fully healthy for the first time all year and should be ready to rock.
Chris Paul has been allowed to play around 30 minutes lately, and while that limit is a bit of a drag on his fantasy value, 30 minutes against the Lakers is roughly equal to 35 or so minutes against some other teams. While it’s easy to ignore him and just play James Harden, who always has massive upside, Paul is very much in play given the favorable matchup. Harden needs no analysis and is the top overall play on tonight’s slate. The team is also staggering some minutes so that Paul or Harden is on the court when the other one is on the bench. That’s good news for the value of both players.
As for the forward options, it’s tough to trust Trevor Ariza and Ryan Anderson on a nightly basis. They don’t see a ton of usage and rely on knocking down some three pointers to be relevant in fantasy formats. The good news is that should be likely to happen tonight in an up tempo game. Ariza can also add some upside with his defensive ability. Clint Capela is averaging 18 points and 11 rebounds per game over his last three contests and is averaging a double-double on the season. He’s very much capable of dominating against the Lakers, and he is a high upside option at center on a short slate. All five Houston starters are viable here. You can even add in Eric Gordon as a risk/reward option off the bench.
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 113.9 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 118.0 (1 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 4.1 ( of 8)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.7 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.0 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.2 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.5 (2 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paul | $8,400 | $8,400 | $15,900 | 37.0 | 0.9 | 28.1 | 1.6 | 1.32 | 22.0% | 52.6% | 24 | 3 |
| James Harden | $12,200 | $11,900 | $22,100 | 54.4 | 1.6 | 35.9 | -1.0 | 1.52 | 34.5% | 63.0% | 21 | 6 |
| Trevor Ariza | $5,200 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 24.6 | 0.3 | 34.2 | -4.1 | 0.72 | 12.9% | 58.5% | 5 | 20 |
| Ryan Anderson | $4,800 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 22.2 | 2.4 | 30.0 | -4.4 | 0.74 | 14.1% | 62.8% | 24 | 3 |
| Clint Capela | $7,800 | $7,100 | $14,300 | 35.1 | -0.9 | 25.9 | -0.2 | 1.36 | 17.0% | 67.7% | 25 | 12 |
| Eric Gordon | $4,700 | $4,900 | $10,100 | 26.3 | -10.8 | 31.6 | -5.1 | 0.83 | 23.7% | 55.9% | N/A | N/A |
| P.J. Tucker | $3,700 | $3,500 | $7,300 | 18.6 | -3.5 | 27.5 | -1.2 | 0.68 | 9.0% | 56.2% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Chris Paul, James Harden, Clint Capela
Secondary Plays – Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon (GPP)
Los Angeles Lakers
Notable Injuries
Lonzo Ball (Questionable)
The biggest news to keep an eye on with tonight’s slate is the status of Lonzo Ball. He played through injury last night, and it sounds like he might be rested on the tail end of a back-to-back set even if he is feeling better. Should Ball be able to play in this game, I am not interested in him since he is banged up and draws a very difficult matchup with Chris Paul. If Ball is unable to play this evening, Jordan Clarkson gets a huge boost as the likely starter at the point. He has been outplaying Ball for much of the season anyway. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has an uncomfortable price tag, but both KCP and Brandon Ingram have picked up their play over the past few weeks. In what profiles as the highest scoring game of the night, both of them are very strong options.
The power forward and center spots are much more difficult to peg. With both Larry Nance and Kyle Kuzma healthy, the Lakers have four options to fill two positions in Kuzma, Nance, Julius Randle, and Brook Lopez. In last night’s game against the Nuggets, Nance and Lopez played 24 minutes, while Randle played 22 and Kuzma logged 27. This is not a very fantasy-friendly situation. It’s a guessing game as to who is going to post the best lines from the group. I would opt for Kuzma if I had to choose one, but it’s definitely a GPP-only situation for the whole gang. One of them will likely hit value with upside here, but your guess is as good as mine as to who that will be.
Los Angeles Lakers Offense
Points Per Game: 106.6 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (4 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 0.4 ( of 8)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.1 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.6 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.1 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.4 (8 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lonzo Ball | $7,000 | $6,700 | $13,000 | 32.2 | -2.2 | 33.4 | 1.3 | 0.96 | 18.4% | 37.0% | 2 | 4 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $6,300 | $5,700 | $12,200 | 28.8 | 7.8 | 34.9 | 3.5 | 0.83 | 16.3% | 54.6% | 17 | 9 |
| Brandon Ingram | $6,700 | $6,300 | $12,400 | 29.4 | 6.7 | 33.8 | 0.6 | 0.87 | 18.9% | 51.5% | 11 | 9 |
| Larry Nance | $6,200 | $5,200 | $11,200 | 26.2 | 4.2 | 23.7 | 2.4 | 1.11 | 13.3% | 63.8% | 8 | 25 |
| Brook Lopez | $4,600 | $4,600 | $8,900 | 26.1 | -11.5 | 23.2 | -4.4 | 1.12 | 21.8% | 54.0% | 22 | 5 |
| Jordan Clarkson | $5,300 | $5,200 | $10,100 | 23.7 | 3.3 | 22.6 | 3.1 | 1.05 | 26.0% | 57.2% | N/A | N/A |
| Julius Randle | $4,800 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 24.6 | 2.0 | 22.2 | 6.1 | 1.11 | 19.8% | 59.4% | N/A | N/A |