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NBA Grind Down: Sunday, January 8th

by Chirag Hira (INSPYR) Last Updated 2017-01-09 03:53:35

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets – 12:00 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers Brooklyn Nets
philadelphianba Vegas Total 214.0 brooklynnba Vegas Total 214.0
Vegas Spread 2.5 Vegas Spread -2.5
Team Total 105.8 Team Total 108.3
Pace +/- 5.2 Pace +/- 0.5
Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Nik Stauskas Robert Covington Ersan Ilyasova Joel Embiid Proj. Starter Isaiah Whitehead Bojan Bogdanovic Joe Harris Trevor Booker Brook Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 30 29 30 27 30 DvP 20 18 25 12 25
DRPM -0.75 -2.72 -0.96 2.19 -0.24 DRPM -0.41 -1.96 1.90 0.06 1.03

Philadelphia 76ers

Good Morning, Grinders! We get to begin our Sunday grinding with a game that should be filled with fantasy goodness. The Sixers will travel to the Brooklyn to take on the Nets, and that means an early dose of Joel Embiid! This season, we’ve been targeting basically everyone against the Nets, but especially centers. On the early slate, only Brook Lopez might have a higher ceiling due to the available minutes. Embiid nearly played 30 minutes against the Timberwolves last week, so it seems the Sixers will let him play as long as he can stay out of foul trouble. Ersan Ilyasova has been the perfect match for Embiid in the frontcourt and is averaging 32.35 FD points in his last four games. He’s also played over 31 minutes in four of his last five games.

Sergio Rodriguez went from probable to questionable to out on Friday, and he’s currently being listed as questionable for Sunday. We should have an update regarding Rodriguez before lineups lock. If Rodriguez is out again, lock in T.J. McConnell in all formats. If Rodriguez plays, McConnell is simply a GPP option. Robert Covington minutes are extremely secure and he represents a strong value play at SF. This game is only available on the all day slate for FanDuel but comes broken down into four-game slates on DK. If you can’t fit Jabari Parker into your lineup at SF on DraftKings, Covington has as much upside if not more than the guys in his salary range. Nerlens Noel had his best game of the season against Boston and he’s also worth a look tonight. He’ll get a significant boost if Rodriguez plays off the bench because Sergio can find him for easy lobs and set him in the right spot. Gerald Henderson also played well in 29 minutes off the bench and his minutes are secure anytime the game is expected to be close.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
T.J. McConnell $5,200 $5,900 0.78 20.8 11.7 16.3 6.2 19.2% -1.1% 30 -0.75
Nik Stauskas $3,500 $3,800 0.59 26.3 5.5 15.5 2.3 16.6% -0.9% 29 -2.72
Robert Covington $5,200 $5,500 0.74 29.8 3.0 22.1 5.2 18.0% 1.6% 30 -0.96
Ersan Ilyasova $5,900 $6,300 0.89 27.2 4.0 24.1 8.0 21.1% 0.9% 27 2.19
Joel Embiid $7,300 $7,900 1.34 25.1 4.1 33.5 8.9 34.7% 2.7% 30 -0.24

Elite Plays – Joel Embiid, T.J. McConnell (only elite if Rodriguez is out)

Secondary Plays – Robert Covington, Ersan Ilyasova, Nerlens Noel

Brooklyn Nets

In the same regard that we can attack Brooklyn, we can attack Philadelphia, and I expect this to be a messy, high-scoring game. Brook Lopez has been in a major slump over the past four games, and this is the third game in four days for the Nets. There is a chance that Lopez gets rested after playing 33 minutes on Friday. If he plays, he’s too risky for cash, but he does have that elite upside at a relatively fair salary. I can’t commit to him on the all-day slate on FanDuel, but if you’re making multiple lineups and he’s available, he’ll be a sleeper pivot off of Embiid and Monroe for DraftKings

Caris LeVert had a career game against the Cavs and played 27 minutes. He got some extra time because Spencer Dinwiddie started and was in foul trouble and Sean Kilpatrick was only used for about 19 minutes. I’m not sure I can trust LeVert and would look at Kilpatrick for GPPs first. Joe Harris has started the last two games, but that could easily change, so I’m inclined to believe Kilpatrick rejoins the starting lineup. Trevor Booker strives in uptempo games and this early game should be no different. He’s not entirely cheap on DK but should be able to get you 30 points.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Whitehead $3,600 $3,600 0.64 22.5 0.5 14.4 -0.6 18.8% 3.2% 20 -0.41
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,100 $4,600 0.73 26.4 -7.0 19.3 -6.6 20.8% -1.9% 18 -1.96
Joe Harris $3,500 $3,200 0.64 23.5 0.5 15.1 -2.6 16.4% -1.5% 25 1.90
Trevor Booker $5,500 $6,000 0.97 27.5 -2.9 26.6 2.3 17.2% 7.8% 12 0.06
Brook Lopez $7,000 $6,900 1.12 29.0 0.2 32.5 -7.6 27.9% -3.7% 25 1.03

Elite Plays – Trevor Booker, Sean Kilpatrick

Secondary Plays – Brook Lopez (Justin Hamilton if Lopez is ruled out)

Washington Wizards at Milwaukee Bucks – 3:30 PM ET

Washington Wizards Milwaukee Bucks
washingtonnba Vegas Total 213.0 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 213.0
Vegas Spread 4.0 Vegas Spread -4.0
Team Total 104.5 Team Total 108.5
Pace +/- -1.0 Pace +/- 0.6
Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Giannis Antetokounmpo Malcolm Brogdon Tony Snell Jabari Parker John Henson
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 6 14 28 15 9 DvP 7 13 9 22 10
DRPM 3.54 -0.18 -0.88 -1.57 1.42 DRPM -0.26 -0.89 1.07 1.24 1.35

Washington Wizards

John Wall has been on a tear as of late, scoring 50 or more DK fantasy points in five of his last six starts. He played 40 minutes against the Timberwolves in a regulation game, and he should be one of the top plays on the slate. Bradley Beal minutes look secure as well, and he has proven that he can score over 40 fantasy points. Like Wall, Marcin Gortat has been lighting it up recently, averaging 39.56 DK FPs per game over his last five. He’s also played 40 minutes in four of his last six games. Since two centers are a viable option on DK, Gortat is in play stacked with Embiid. Otto Porter has also put together some strong games, but he’ll be focused on defending Giannis for most of the game. Markieff Morris never gets it done for me, but we’ve been attacking the Bucks with PFs all season, making Morris a viable play.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $9,800 $9,900 1.25 36.3 -0.2 45.2 -0.1 34.8% -1.7% 6 3.54
Bradley Beal $6,900 $6,600 0.93 34.3 1.1 31.8 4.4 26.6% 4.4% 14 -0.18
Otto Porter $6,000 $5,800 0.82 33.7 0.0 27.7 -2.8 15.1% -0.6% 28 -0.88
Markieff Morris $4,900 $5,000 0.76 31.1 -4.6 23.8 -2.8 19.8% -0.9% 15 -1.57
Marcin Gortat $6,600 $6,400 0.84 35.9 1.2 30.2 5.9 14.0% 3.6% 9 1.42

Elite Plays – John Wall, Marcin Gortat

Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Markieff Morris

Milwaukee Bucks

Editor’s Note: Giannis Antetokounmpo has been ruled OUT for Sunday’s game against the Wizards.

Finally, the Bucks are out of the home-and-home matchup with the Knicks. They’ll face the Wizards in what should be a nice bounce-back spot for the Bucks. I mentioned in the NBAIQ article that I thought Giannis Antetokounmpo was losing his tournament viability given his extremely high ownership levels, but today it looks mighty appealing to go back to the well. His salary did not drop on DK and actually went up $100 on FD. He did score over 60 fantasy points against the Wiz in December, so an elite ceiling is not out of the question. Jabari Parker has been seeing a ton of minutes, playing 36+ minutes in six of his last seven starts, with the one game being over 34 minutes. He’s also played over 40 minutes twice in that stretch so, his minutes look rather secure. He’s proven he can score over 50 fantasy points and has to score over 35 fantasy points to really make salary-based expectations on both sites.

Greg Monroe continues to look exceptional off the bench and has scored over 34 DK FPs in five of his last seven games. He’s no longer cheap, sitting at $6.1k on both sites. I’d rather just spend up for Embiid or Gortat if spending this much on a center. Matthew Dellavedova is expected to return to the lineup tonight, but he’ll be coming off the bench. Malcolm Brogdon will continue to start but is a low-end option with Delly around. Mirza Teletovic kept hitting low-end value and is a viable punt option if you’re scraping the bottom of the value barrel for the short slate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,800 $10,700 1.37 35.3 4.8 48.4 9.0 29.8% -0.4% 7 -0.26
Malcolm Brogdon $4,600 $5,600 0.76 23.6 13.0 17.9 13.4 19.8% 0.1% 13 -0.89
Tony Snell $3,600 $3,400 0.53 28.9 -4.0 15.2 -7.5 12.7% -3.4% 9 1.07
Jabari Parker $7,100 $7,300 0.94 33.8 5.5 31.9 -1.1 25.2% -4.0% 22 1.24
John Henson $3,700 $3,400 0.87 20.3 -2.2 17.8 -7.2 16.2% -6.6% 10 1.35

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker

Secondary Plays – Greg Monroe (GPP), Mirza Teletovic (GPP)

Miami Heat at Los Angeles Clippers – 3:30 PM ET

Miami Heat Los Angeles Clippers
miaminba Vegas Total 204.5 laclippersnba Vegas Total 204.5
Vegas Spread 5.0 Vegas Spread -5.0
Team Total 99.8 Team Total 104.8
Pace +/- 0.1 Pace +/- -1.8
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Rodney McGruder Wayne Ellington Luke Babbitt Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Austin Rivers J.J. Redick Raymond Felton Luc Richard Mbah a Moute DeAndre Jordan
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 10 6 22 7 6 DvP 4 7 6 7 21
DRPM -2.18 -1.39 -0.46 2.72 2.31 DRPM -2.32 -1.11 -1.37 1.11 1.24

Miami Heat

The Heat continue their road trip this afternoon in Los Angeles. Hassan Whiteside is listed as probable to play after missing four games due to an eye injury. He should not have any minutes restriction, and in fact, the time off could end up benefiting him, as he was dealing with some other ailments before missing this year’s games. He scores over 10 fantasy points more at home than he does on the road, but his salary has fallen to a more playable level. This will spell the end of the Willie Reed run, but he should still be a major cog moving forward since he proved he can handle the minutes. Goran Dragic was ejected from Friday’s game against the Lakers, but the league has not mentioned that he’ll receive a suspension at this time. He’ll get a tough matchup vs Chris Paul today.

James Johnson has been tearing it up with Justise Winslow done for the season, averaging 33.8 FanDuel points over his last four games. He has yet to start and I would not expect him to start even with Josh Richardson out. He’ll still be a playable piece on FanDuel but lacks elite upside over on DK. Wayne Ellington and Rodney McGruder will likely start, and in Ellington’s last start he scored 29.5 DK FPs. He’s so cheap on DK that he’s in play if you’re looking for salary-saving player that can fit almost anywhere since he’s G/F multi-position eligible. Dion Waiters played 20 minutes off the bench against the Lakers and is also worth a GPP look if the Heat announce that he’ll play over 20 minutes again. Tyler Johnson cooled off against the Lakers but is a lock for minutes with Richardson out of the lineup.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Goran Dragic $6,500 $6,800 0.96 34.3 -0.5 32.8 3.6 29.3% 2.0% 10 -2.18
Rodney McGruder $3,500 $3,000 0.52 26.1 4.2 13.5 1.8 12.0% 1.3% 6 -1.39
Wayne Ellington $3,800 $3,400 0.62 29.3 3.6 18.3 1.3 17.2% 0.0% 22 -0.46
Luke Babbitt $3,500 $3,000 0.52 15.2 3.8 7.9 4.4 13.8% 3.5% 7 2.72
Hassan Whiteside $8,300 $8,000 1.17 33.9 39.5 21.7% 6 2.31
Tyler Johnson $6,000 $5,400 0.87 30.9 -1.2 26.8 4.1 21.8% 2.2% 10 N/A
James Johnson $5,600 $6,200 0.93 24.5 5.2 22.7 10.9 22.6% 0.9% 7 N/A

Elite Plays – Hassan Whiteside, James Johnson (FD), Wayne Ellington (GPP if he starts)

Secondary Plays – Tyler Johnson

Los Angeles Clippers

Chris Paul returned from a hamstring injury and played 31 minutes on Friday. He’ll likely stay in that range for the foreseeable future and will simply be a GPP option until the Clippers prove he’s healthy enough to play 34-38 minutes. DeAndre Jordan has seen over 36 minutes in consecutive games and is averaging 41.28 DK FPs over his last six games. He’s a strong option at the center position, but I like Embiid slightly more for this slate. Still, you can’t go wrong with Jordan, and for what it’s worth, he could realistically be on the court for 10 more minutes than Embiid. The only issue is that Jordan could get into foul trouble against Hassan Whiteside.

J.J. Redick has strung together three straight solid games, but even so, he does not really have elite upside. He’s more of a cash game play who can consistently hit his floor. Austin Rivers is stayed in the starting lineup with Paul back and played 35 minutes. He’s got a solid floor/ceiling combo and has scored 24 or more actual points in back-to-back games. I’m usually the Mo Buckets whisperer, but I already used my one time this week against the Kings. His minutes are far from secure, and he’s not even that cheap. Raymond Felton was hurt most by the return of Paul while Crawford still played 32 minutes.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Austin Rivers $4,800 $5,200 0.66 25.5 13.1 16.9 9.4 19.6% 1.2% 4 -2.32
J.J. Redick $4,300 $5,100 0.71 27.2 3.3 19.2 0.0 21.2% -1.4% 7 -1.11
Raymond Felton $4,100 $4,100 0.68 20.8 14.4 14.1 12.4 17.8% 0.1% 6 -1.37
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute $3,500 $3,200 0.55 23.4 -2.2 12.9 1.2 11.2% 4.5% 7 1.11
DeAndre Jordan $7,600 $7,100 1.02 31.7 0.0 32.3 4.8 14.4% 2.6% 21 1.24
Jamal Crawford $4,500 $4,700 0.69 26.3 3.0 18.2 5.8 23.4% -0.4% 7 N/A

Elite Plays – Austin Rivers, DeAndre Jordan

Secondary Plays – Chris Paul (GPP), J.J. Redick (cash)

Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors – 6:00 PM ET

Houston Rockets Toronto Raptors
houstonnba Vegas Total 224.5 torontonba Vegas Total 224.5
Vegas Spread -1.5 Vegas Spread 1.5
Team Total 113.0 Team Total 111.5
Pace +/- -1.2 Pace +/- 2.4
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Nene Hilario Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Lucas Nogueira Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 15 1 13 26 14 DvP 10 24 19 20 19
DRPM 0.58 -2.39 0.58 2.76 -0.13 DRPM 1.23 -1.39 1.74 -0.79 2.04

Houston Rockets

The Rockets continue their road trip tonight in Toronto this afternoon. James Harden had his worst fantasy performance against the Magic on Friday and is in an elite bounce-back spot. I’m sure most users will gravitate towards the Greek Freak and John Wall, but don’t forget about this potential MVP candidate. Just because he had one bad game, does not make him a bad play. The Rockets have a top-three implied team total, and Harden’s salary has fallen on both sites. The minutes will be there, and it would surprise no one if Harden triple-doubled in his matchup. Patrick Beverley will likely play 31+ minutes chasing around Kyle Lowry. He had a strong game against Orlando with a bum wrist but does not figure to exceed salary-based expectations by much today.

Eric Gordon has averaged 35.53 DK FPs and leads the league in three-pointers made this season. Ryan Anderson was hot against the Magic but barely exceeded salary-based expectations on DK. He’s a fine punt play but is extremely scoring dependent. Montrezl Harrell only played 21 minutes as a starter against the Magic and it would not shock me to see Nene back in the starting lineup for this one against Jonas Valanciunas. Trevor Ariza should get back on track against the Raptors but is not cash game reliabe.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $6,000 $5,700 0.83 30.7 0.3 25.6 2.5 15.8% -3.4% 15 0.58
James Harden $11,500 $11,700 1.47 36.6 4.1 53.7 9.9 38.5% 2.0% 1 -2.39
Trevor Ariza $5,300 $5,600 0.76 33.8 5.4 25.8 2.8 15.0% -0.5% 13 0.58
Ryan Anderson $5,400 $5,400 0.73 30.7 2.4 22.3 2.6 17.1% -3.1% 26 2.76
Nene Hilario $3,700 $3,400 0.85 16.7 -2.4 14.3 1.7 18.7% 2.2% 14 -0.13
Eric Gordon $5,900 $5,900 0.85 30.5 1.8 25.8 3.8 23.6% 4.8% 1 N/A
Montrezl Harrell $4,600 $5,200 0.90 18.1 13.6 16.2 8.3 17.8% -4.5% 14 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden, Eric Gordon

Secondary Plays – Patrick Beverley, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors return home after a one-game trip to Chicago. They played in an overtime thriller with Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan leading the way. With Patrick Beverley chasing around Kyle Lowry, I’d go back to the well with DeRozan. While Lowry is not a bad play at all, he’s not the top option at the position. Jonas Valanciunas has played 30+ minutes in three of his last four starts and is still relatively cheap. Lucas Nogueira started alongside Valanciunas for the second consecutive game and played 42 minutes. If Patrick Patterson is out again today, Bebe is in play again. DeMarre Carroll has seen heavy minutes for consecutive games but has yet to really produce a big game. He’s a candidate for rest after logging heavy minutes last night, but the team has yet to say anything official. Trevor Ariza will likely cheat off of him and try to play the passing lanes, leaving Carroll open for some triples. Carroll has hit a three-pointer in six of his last seven games. Terrence Ross and Cory Joseph are also fine options in what is a pace-up game for the Raptors. They lack elite upside but are viable options since you’ll need some value to get in all the high-priced guys.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,600 $8,300 1.07 37.1 -0.7 39.6 1.4 27.0% -0.2% 10 1.23
DeMar DeRozan $8,600 $8,100 1.13 35.3 -0.7 39.8 -3.1 34.2% 3.3% 24 -1.39
DeMarre Carroll $3,500 $3,800 0.67 25.5 -0.8 17.2 -3.7 15.1% -2.8% 19 1.74
Lucas Nogueira $3,600 $3,400 0.81 19.7 2.9 16.0 -2.4 9.6% 1.1% 20 -0.79
Jonas Valanciunas $5,300 $5,400 0.95 26.8 1.2 25.6 -2.5 18.3% -3.1% 19 2.04
Terrence Ross $4,100 $3,900 0.81 21.2 5.0 17.3 2.6 19.4% -0.7% 19 N/A

Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Jonas Valanciunas, Kyle Lowry

Secondary Plays – Lucas Nogueira (if Patterson is out)

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About the Author

INSPYR
Chirag Hira (INSPYR)

Chirag Hira, DFS alias “INSPYR”, has been playing fantasy basketball since 2001. He picked up DFS during the 2015 playoffs and has never looked back. In charge of DFS Alerts for the NBA, Chirag takes it as a daily challenge to break news before anyone else in the industry. He graduated with a degree in sports journalism and his career highlights include interviewing Kobe Bryant and Joe Torre. You can find Chirag on Twitter at C_Hira24.