NBA Grind Down: Sunday, March 6th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Golden State at L.A. Lakers – 03:30 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Barnes
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Russell-Clarkson—Randle-Hibbert
| Golden State | L.A. Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 102.22 | Team Pace | 97.97 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Harrison Barnes | Proj Starter | D’Angelo Russell | Jordan Clarkson | Julius Randle | Roy Hibbert | ||
| Opp. Season | 30 | 28 | 29 | 25 | 28 | Opp. Season | 26 | 9 | 16 | 14 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 14 | 5 | 27 | 17 | Opp. Season | 22 | 2 | 26 | 20 | 1 | |
Golden State
Los Angeles Lakers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.6 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.8 (27 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 214.5 (30 of 30)
The Lakers are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. They are ranked 27th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential and fantasy points allowed per game. The Warriors are the biggest favorites on the board at 17 point favorites with the biggest total on the slate at 220.5. Stephen Curry said he is hopeful to play, while Andre Iguodala is currently doubtful for the matchup. If Iguodala does sit, “(player-popup)Harrison Barnes”:/players/harrison-barnes-13901’ minutes are a bit more secure in what could be a blowout and could be used as a punt small forward.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Curry is a secondary play for me today due to his tournament capabilities in what could get out of hand early against the Lakers. If the game stays moderately close and Curry gets a full compliment of minutes, he could put up a monster game. Yet, in three games against the Lakers this year, Curry is averaging 28.7 minutes per game and only about 38 fantasy points. There is some risk, but the upside is obviously there.
FD — $10,900 — PG
DK — $10,600 — PG
Usage – 31.7
Min/Game — Season: 33.9
The same could be written up about Green. He is playing in a spot that could be a blowout after the third quarter. The only difference here are there are a number of elite point guards to switch off of Curry, as for the power forward position, after Green there is a drop off in production. Green has similar numbers to Curry against the Lakers, playing only 28.3 minutes and putting up less than 40 fantasy points per game in the three matchups. There are risks to playing the big salaries today, but are tournament viable.
FD — $8,600 — PF
DK — $8,500 — PF
Usage – 19.5
Min/Game — Season: 34.5
L.A. Lakers
Golden State Warriors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.1 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.5 (6 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.7 (17 of 30)
Golden State has been around league average at allowed points and fantasy points per game this year. Yet, they are one of the top defensive efficient teams in the league (fifth) and have a great 2.5 rebound differential for sixth in the league. Again, this game features a huge spread with the Lakers being on the wrong side of it. Currently, Kobe Bryant is 50-50 to play today, Jordan Clarkson is questionable, Anthony Brown and Louis Williams are both out.
Elite Plays
D’Angelo Russell
Russell killed a lot of lineups on Friday when everyone was on him after a few solid games in a row. He came up with a big dud, but still played 30 minutes and with all the injuries facing the Lakers today, should be a lock for 30+ again today. The matchup is clearly not ideal, but if Kobe and Clarkson are out again, Russell will be forced into his minutes regardless of the outcome of this game here and should bounce back from his poor outing on Friday. Add that to the fact that his ownership may go down a bit and we have a good cash and tournament play today on Fanduel where they have not raised his price too much yet.
FD — $5,700 — PG
DK — $6,500 — PG
Usage – 23.3
Min/Game — Season: 27.7
Secondary Plays
None
Oklahoma City at Milwaukee – 03:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -7, 219 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – -Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Parker-Plumlee
| Oklahoma City | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 219 |  | Vegas Total | 219 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 113.0 | Team Proj. | 106.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.43 | Team Pace | 96.79 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Jabari Parker | Miles Plumlee | ||
| Opp. Season | 7 | 26 | 25 | 21 | 15 | Opp. Season | 24 | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 29 | 24 | 10 | 29 | Opp. Season | 27 | 19 | 17 | 26 | 27 | |
Oklahoma City
Milwaukee Bucks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.3 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.7 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.3 (21 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 204.2 (22 of 30)
The Bucks have been a slightly below average defensive team this season. They are ranked 19th and lower and in all the above defensive categories and are a fine team to target players against in all formats. The Thunder have a big projected team total of 113 today, which is three points higher than their season average. Steven Adams is currently questionable, but has said he should play today. If he does sit, Enes Kanter would step into a few more minutes and would be a good punt play at the center position.
Elite Plays
Westbrook has been stellar all season long and a guy to target in all formats. Westbrook has one of the highest projected floors every game as his lowest fantasy effort in the last ten games was on Thursday when he was held to only 39 fantasy points. Prior to that game, Westbrook had a 48 point floor over his previous nine and of course 60+ upside. While paying down for Lowry or Lillard is an option, Westbrook does look like the highest projected star of the day.
FD — $10,700 — PG
DK — $10,800 — PG
Usage – 33.5
Min/Game — Season: 34.6
Durant is always in play as well and he is at a much tougher position to fill than Westbrook today and has a great matchup against the Bucks who are ranked 25th in the league at small forward. Durant has been over 52 fantasy points over his last five games and makes a solid play in all formats.
FD — $10,800 — SF
DK — $10,400 — SF
Usage – 29.5
Min/Game — Season: 36.2
Secondary Plays
None
Milwaukee
Oklahoma City Thunder Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.0 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.7 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 7.5 (1 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 196.8 (10 of 30)
The Thunder have been an average defensive team this year. They are ranked between 10th and 18th in the league in points allowed, defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed per game. The Bucks have a projected team total of 106 for this game, which is 6.6 points higher than their season average. Michael Carter Williams is listed as out today.
Elite Plays
Both of the guys I am going to list have been downright great recently and have really stepped their games up with the absence of MCW. Middleton’s minutes have been over 34 in each of his last ten games and his fantasy floor has been 30 with a ceiling of 50 during that span. Middleton has the best matchup for the Bucks as he gets the Thunder and their 23rd ranked defense against the shooting guard position.
FD — $7,900 — SG
DK — $7,500 — SG
Usage – 22.2
Min/Game — Season: 36.6
Giannis doesn’t have the ideal matchup like Middleton does (Thunder are ranked eighth against the small forward position), but matchups have not matter for Ante recently. He is seeing a big role increase offensively with MCW out and has triple double potential each time he steps on the court. This should be one of the faster paced games on the slate, which should give us a lot of fantasy potential. Giannis makes a great play for both cash and tournaments and gives you a big savings if you don’t want to pay up for KD, especially at DK.
FD — $8,700 — SF
DK — $8,100 — SF
Usage – 20.9
Min/Game — Season: 35.1
Secondary Plays
Parker has been trucking along with his big minutes lately, which has made him a solid power forward play over his last nine games. His low games over this span have been two games around 22 fantasy points, while displaying 35-40 fantasy upside as well. His price has risen, but still should be able to reach value in this high-scoring game.
FD — $6,000 — PF
DK — $6,500 — PF
Usage – 18.8
Min/Game — Season: 30.4
Phoenix at Memphis – 04:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Memphis -11, 207.5 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Price-Booker-Tucker-Humphries-Chandler
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Hairston-Barnes-Green-
| Phoenix | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207 |  | Vegas Total | 207 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.0 | Vegas Sprd | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.3 | Team Proj. | 109.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.53 | Team Pace | 95.34 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ronnie Price | Devin Booker | P.J. Tucker | Kris Humphries | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | P.J. Hairston | Matt Barnes | JaMychal Green | ||
| Opp. Season | 8 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 2 | Opp. Season | 29 | 30 | 27 | 15 | 8 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 22 | Opp. Season | 25 | 22 | 11 | 18 | 30 | |
Phoenix
Memphis Grizzlies Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.4 (24 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 190.9 (6 of 30)
The Grizzlies have slowly improved from an average defensive team into what we have come to expect from a Memphis team over the last few years and are now a solid defensive squad. They are ranked sixth in both points and fantasy points allowed this year. The Suns are huge underdogs today (11.5) and have an extremely low 97.5 projected team total, which is 2.9 points lower than their season average.
Elite Plays
Even with the blowout potential it is hard to ignore what Alex Len is doing right now in the starting lineup and the full compliment of minutes he is getting. He has averaged 38.9 fantasy points over his last four while averaging 36 minutes during that span. The matchup is not ideal, but the price is too good to pass up if you are looking for a punt/mid-priced center.
FD — $5,800 — C
DK — $6,100 — C
Usage – 18.8
Min/Game — Season: 20.9
Secondary Plays
Booker is worth a mention here as well as he is playing at least 33 minutes over his last four games and has played very well over his last two games (33.7 average). He is tough to play in cash games, but does make a solid tournament punt play for his price.
FD — $5,100 — SG
DK — $4,800 — SG
Usage – 19.6
Min/Game — Season: 24.5
Mirza is a fine punt play at the power forward position on Fanduel and just put up 28.9 fantasy points against the Grizzlies. He is still cheap and is expected to be the offense for the second unit each game. There is a bit of risk, but Mirza does have solid upside.
FD — $4,600 — PF
DK — $5,200 — SF
Usage – 21.4
Min/Game — Season: 19.5
Memphis
Phoenix Suns Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.9 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.8 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (16 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 208.9 (25 of 30)
The Suns are one of the poorest defensive squads in the NBA. They are ranked 29th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. They are also ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed per game. The Grizzlies are big 11.5 favorites today and have a projected team total of 109, which is 9.9 points higher than their season average. Tony Allen is currently questionable to play. If he cannot go that continues to allow P.J. Hairston to continue to start and give Matt Barnes a few more minutes.
Elite Plays
The Grizzlies have been playing such great basketball without Gasol in the lineup that it hasn’t forced Randolph to be a dominating force inside. He is still getting his most minutes of the season at this point and has close to a 30-point floor. The Grizzlies did lose to the Suns about two weeks ago and will look to come out firing and Randolph should have a big part in the big 109-team total.
FD — $6,700 — PF
DK — $6,500 — PF
Usage – 22.3
Min/Game — Season: 29.3
Secondary Plays
None
Dallas at Denver – 05:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Dallas -3, 210.5 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Williams-Matthews-Parsons-Nowitzki-Pachulia
- Denver Proj. Starters – Mudiay-Harris-Gallinari-Faried-Jokic
| Dallas | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210 |  | Vegas Total | 210 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 106.8 | Team Proj. | 103.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.44 | Team Pace | 98.03 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Wesley Matthews | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Zaza Pachulia | Proj Starter | Emmanuel Mudiay | Gary Harris | Danilo Gallinari | Kenneth Faried | Nikola Jokic | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 27 | 14 | 23 | 19 | Opp. Season | 12 | 10 | 9 | 27 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 28 | 3 | 7 | 2 | Opp. Season | 14 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 26 | |
Dallas
Denver Nuggets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.1 (10 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 205.4 (24 of 30)
The Nuggets are a very poor defensive squad and always a solid team to target for daily fantasy purposes. They are ranked 21st or lower in points allowed per game, fantasy points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Mavericks have a projected team total of 106.8, which is 4.3 points higher than their season average. There are no injury concerns for the Mavericks entering this game.
Elite Plays
Parsons has had some monster games over the last ten games and has a ceiling in the 40+ fantasy range. He has also been a big let down at times during that span putting up 3 games of 23 fantasy points or less. The matchup today is too good to pass up on though as the Nuggets are ranked in the middle of the league at defending the small forward position and Parsons just lit them up for 39 fantasy points just two weeks ago. He makes for a solid mid-priced SF today.
FD — $6,900 — SF
DK — $6,800 — SF
Usage – 19.5
Min/Game — Season: 28.8
Secondary Plays
Not the greatest cash game play out there, Dirk has 40 point potential, which he did put up in the matchup a few weeks back against this Nuggets squad. It is hard to love putting Dirk in any lineup due to the fact that he could get his minutes limited depending on how the game goes, but does have enough upside to be worth a tournament mention against the 23rd ranked power forward defense of Denver.
FD — $6,600 — PF
DK — $6,200 — PF
Usage – 23.0
Min/Game — Season: 31.0
Only a mention here due to the fact that he is so cheap still and has put up some pretty big games in the minutes he is getting. He is risky, but a tournament option today that could get you 25-30 fantasy points if he gets above the 20 minute mark in a great matchup. I also like Wes Matthews here as he is priced around the same as David Lee, but playing huge minutes and could be a cost-saver at the shooting guard position in a solid matchup as well.
FD — $4,600 — PF
DK — $4,500 — PF
Usage – 22.3
Min/Game — Season: 16.1
Denver
Dallas Mavericks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.4 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.8 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.4 (25 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.3 (15 of 30)
The Mavericks are a mediocre matchup to take players against this season. They are ranked between 15th and 25th in all the above categories and now take on a Denver squad that features a projected team total of 103.8 points, which is slightly above their season average of 101.3.
Elite Plays
Mudiay has been playing some of his best basketball of the season recently. A lot could be contributed to very solid matchups over the last two games, but has put up 83 fantasy points over that span. His confidence is high going into this matchup against Dallas and he could be looked at as a nice pivot off of Russell who will be popular around this price point.
FD — $5,800 — PG
DK — $5,700 — PG
Usage – 25.4
Min/Game — Season: 30.3
Secondary Plays
Value will be needed in order to get the Westbrooks, Durants and Hardens into your lineup today. Harris is a nice play today to give lineups some value as he has been playing huge minutes recently (over 40 in his last two) and has contributed nicely over his last five games (25.74 average).
FD — $5,000 — SG
DK — $4,700 — SG
Usage – 15.6
Min/Game — Season: 31.9
Faried is worth a tournament mention due to what he has been doing recently. Other than the dud against the Lakers, Faried has been over 30 fantasy points in his other four previous game including a 37.4 fantasy points against this Dallas squad. He is not safe by any means, but does have some solid upside in this matchup.
FD — $6,000 — PF
DK — $6,000 — PF
Usage – 19.3
Min/Game — Season: 25.9
Portland at Detroit – 06:00 PM
- Vegas Line – EVEN SPREAD, 205.5 OVER/UNDER
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-McCollum-Aminu-Vonleh-Plumlee
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Morris—Drummond
| Portland | Detroit | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205 |  | Vegas Total | 205 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 0.0 | Vegas Sprd | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.8 | Team Proj. | 102.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.70 | Team Pace | 97.48 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Al-Farouq Aminu | Noah Vonleh | Mason Plumlee | Proj Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Marcus Morris | Andre Drummond | ||
| Opp. Season | 10 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 9 | Opp. Season | 17 | 19 | 6 | 20 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 21 | 29 | 1 | 12 | Opp. Season | 19 | 17 | 16 | 21 | 8 | |
Portland
Detroit Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.7 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (15 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.80 (11 of 30)
Detroit has been an average defensive squad this year and are ranked between 11th and 20th in each of the above defensive categories. The Trailblazers feature a 103.3 projected team total for this matchup where they are slight underdogs (one point). The Blazers are looking fully healthy entering this matchup with the Pistons.
Elite Plays
Lillard has been fantastic recently. He has been averaging over 40+ fantasy points over his last ten including a monster 55+ fantasy efforts along the way. His floor is nowhere near Westbrooks’, but the upside is there for about a 1500 savings over Russell. Lillard makes a solid tournament option today against Jackson and the Pistons.
FD — $9,400 — PG
DK — $9,200 — PG
Usage – 31.6
Min/Game — Season: 35.9
Secondary Plays
Shooting guard has some solid options going today in decent matchups. McCollum has a bit of a tough matchup against Pope and the 11th ranked defense of the Pistons making him a secondary play today, but still has the potential for a quality outing as this game should stay close throughout. It may make more sense to pay a bit more or a bit less for the shooting guard position, but that just makes McCollum an even better tournament option as he should be low owned.
FD — $6,900 — SG
DK — $6,900 — SG
Usage – 26.6
Min/Game — Season: 35.0
Detroit
Portland Trail Blazers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.3 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.5 (6 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 198.9 (13 of 30)
The Blazers have been an average defensive squad this year and are ranked between 13th and 19th in points allowed, defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed per game. The Pistons feature a team total of 104.3, which is 2.8 points higher than their season average. The Pistons appear to continue to be without Spencer Dinwiddie, Jodie Meeks, Stanley Johnson and Anthony Tolliver for this game.
Elite Plays
Drummond is worth a mention due to the fact that he has tremendous upside, but should be slightly under owned on the slate today as Len makes a great lower priced play and others may flock to Whiteside. The Blazers do have the 23rd ranked defense against the Center position, making Drummond a solid play in all formats today.
FD — $8,500 — C
DK — $7,700 — C
Usage – 23.0
Min/Game — Season: 33.5
Secondary Plays
It is really hard to argue with a 6k guy who is getting about 35 minutes per game over his last eight and averaging around 28-30 fantasy points during that span. The upside is not exactly there for tournaments, but the consistency makes him a viable option at the small forward position.
FD — $5,800 — SF
DK — $6,200 — SF
Usage – 19.9
Min/Game — Season: 32.9