NBA Grind Down: Sunday, October 29th

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2017-10-29 15:30:17

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks – 3:30 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks							Atlanta Hawks
			Vegas Total		203.0					Vegas Total		203.0
			Vegas Spread		-5.0					Vegas Spread		5.0
			Implied Team Total		104.0					Implied Team Total		99.0
			Pace Projection +/-		2.7					Pace Projection +/-		-2.8
Projected Starters	Malcolm Brogdon	Tony Snell	Khris Middleton	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Thon Maker		Projected Starters	Dennis Schroder	Kent Bazemore	Taurean Prince	Mike Muscala	Dewayne Dedmon
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	18	23	14	21	10		DvP	22	3	10	24	18
DRPM	-2.53	-1.09	2.66	-0.74	4.86		DRPM	-0.73	-0.79	0.54	1.49	-0.53

Milwaukee Bucks

Notable Injuries

None

Greetings, NBA Grinders! We have a seven game schedule on tap for this Sunday, with a two game afternoon slate and a five game evening slate. The two early games have the lowest totals of the day, so I would recommend holding off and just playing the five game evening slate if you want some NBA action today. If you are playing an “all day” slate, you will want heavier exposure to the late games. Things get kick started with the Bucks and Hawks squaring off in Atlanta in a game with a projected total of 204 points, which is the lowest of the day. Despite that low total, this isn’t a terrible matchup for the Bucks. They are five point road favorites here, and they do get a pace boost against a Hawks squad that ranks 11th in tempo so far this season.

When it comes to breaking down the Bucks, the offense runs in, around, and through the budding star Giannis Antetokounmpo. He is averaging 35 points and 11 rebounds per game on the young season, and his numbers are absolutely incredible across the board. He is definitely matchup-proof and is one of the top overall options on the board. Khris Middleton and Malcolm Brogdon are secondary options on this team, and they carry solid DFS appeal mainly because of their consistent minutes. Both log playing time in the mid-30’s on a daily basis, and it’s very refreshing to see Jason Kidd give them consistent playing time. That has been a knock on the Bucks’ coach in the past. Their upside is capped because Antetokounmpo does so much on this team, but they are appealing cash game options.

Nobody else on this Milwaukee squad is worth a look. The center spot is still a revolving door of three players, and Tony Snell has no upside. Stick to the core of Antetokounmpo, Middleton, and Brogdon here.

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.0 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.9 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.2 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.5 (5 of 30)

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton (DK), Malcolm Brogdon (cash)

Secondary Plays – Khris Middleton (FD & FDRAFT), Malcolm Brogdon (GPP)

Atlanta Hawks

Notable Injuries

Ersan Ilyasova (Out)

This isn’t a great spot for the Hawks, as they are not a good basketball team and draw a difficult matchup today. Dennis Schroder is back from injury and appears to be a full go after logging 33 minutes in his return on Friday. According to Court IQ, Schroder sports a 33% usage rate in his time on the court this season, so he is going to be tasked with carrying this offense. I like him as a high upside GPP option today. His return limits the appeal of Kent Bazemore a little bit, as Bazemore takes a big hit in usage with Schroder back in the mix. Taurean Prince also carries a little less appeal, but he has been a pleasant surprise in the early going. He is a steady mid-range option if you are looking for a cash game play.

The frontcourt does get a nice boost today, as Ersan Ilyasova has already been ruled out. He played 30 minutes on Friday, so there will be some extra minutes to go around. The biggest beneficiaries of this news are John Collins and Mike Muscala. Collins has been playing very well and is a high fantasy point per minute guy, but he kind of fits the Marreese Speights type mold. He doesn’t play a ton of minutes, and fouls are a major issue. He might get tasked with checking Antetokounmpo at times in this games, which does not bode well for the foul problems. Still, he should be looking at around 20-24 minutes in this game, and there is some upside. Muscala averaged 26 minutes per game in the earlier contests that Ilyasova missed, and he will likely draw the start, so he is in play as a punt option. Don’t bother with Dewayne Dedmon and his 15.8% usage rate.

Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.2 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.3 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -6.3 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder

Secondary Plays – Taurean Prince, John Collins (GPP), Mike Muscala

San Antonio Spurs at Indiana Pacers – 4:30 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs							Indiana Pacers
			Vegas Total		204.0					Vegas Total		204.0
			Vegas Spread		-6.5					Vegas Spread		6.5
			Implied Team Total		105.3					Implied Team Total		98.8
			Pace Projection +/-		2.6					Pace Projection +/-		-4.3
Projected Starters	Dejounte Murray	Danny Green	Kyle Anderson	LaMarcus Aldridge	Pau Gasol		Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Domantas Sabonis
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	26	25	11	18	11		DvP	2	15	1	7	7
DRPM	-1.67	1.64	-2.76	1.69	1.92		DRPM	-0.74	2.10	2.92	1.25	1.43

San Antonio Spurs

Notable Injuries

Kawhi Leonard (Out)
Tony Parker (Out)

I generally don’t love targeting the Spurs, but today might be a good day to give them a look. They draw a pace up matchup against a Pacers squad that is looking to push the tempo this season, and the fact that this is a road game limits the blowout risk to some degree. LaMarcus Aldridge is thriving with Kawhi Leonard out of commission, averaging almost 26 points per game to go along with a solid nine rebounds. The Spurs are coming off a blowout loss to the Magic, but Aldridge was the one player who showed up for that game. i don’t love his current DFS price point, but he certainly deserves it. He is a very safe play on the higher end today.

Outside of Aldridge, there is not a lot to love on this team. Dejounte Murray and Patty Mills split minutes at point guard. Kyle Anderson and Rudy Gay split minutes at power forward. Pau Gasol doesn’t play a ton of minutes at this stage of his career. Danny Green has been decent in the early going, but he is a low upside fantasy option. If I had to pluck some GPP options out of this group, Murray and Anderson would be my top selections, but the seemingly 24-26 minute ceiling is a real drag on the general upside. Despite the solid matchup, it’s just hard to get excited about anything here.

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 115.6 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.3 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.2 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.4 (6 of 30)

Elite Plays – LaMarcus Aldridge

Secondary Plays – Dejounte Murray, Kyle Anderson, Rudy Gay

Indiana Pacers

Notable Injuries

Myles Turner (Doubtful)

On the other side of this game, it’s really hard to get excited about the Pacers today. They draw a difficult matchup against a slow-paced Spurs team that is always among the better defensive squads in the league. They haven’t been quite a stout defensively so far this year because they are missing Kawhi Leonard, but they haven’t been bad, as they still rank inside the top ten in defensive efficiency. Combine that with the general slow pace of play, and it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to target any Indiana players in this spot.

If you are playing on the short two game early slate, you probably have no choice but to target at least one Indiana player. Victor Oladipo likely gets the biggest bump because of Leonard’s absence on the other side, as he would almost assuredly have seen Leonard’s defense in this game. Oladipo appears to finally be on the verge of a breakout season for his new team, and he does carry GPP upside. Darren Collison has seen his price rise of late, but he is also a reasonable option if you need to target an Indiana player. Myles Turner is doubtful again today, which should mean that Domantas Sabonis will draw another start in the middle. Fouls have been an issue, but Sabonis is playing 25 minutes per game and is averaging a double-double in the early going, with averages of 11.2 points and 9.8 rebounds per game. He is a decent value option up front. I will be avoiding everyone else from this team today.

Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs

Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 96.0 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 11.3 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (27 of 30)

Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo (cash), Darren Collison, Domantas Sabonis (if Turner is out)

Denver Nuggets at Brooklyn Nets – 6:00 PM ET

Denver Nuggets							Brooklyn Nets
			Vegas Total		223.5					Vegas Total		223.5
			Vegas Spread		-4.5					Vegas Spread		4.5
			Implied Team Total		114.0					Implied Team Total		109.5
			Pace Projection +/-		7.9					Pace Projection +/-		-3.9
Projected Starters	Jamal Murray	Gary Harris	Wilson Chandler	Paul Millsap	Nikola Jokic		Projected Starters	D’Angelo Russell	Caris LeVert	DeMarre Carroll	Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	Timofey Mozgov
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	24	17	27	29	8		DvP	21	6	19	12	2
DRPM	-2.42	-0.76	1.09	1.36	0.90		DRPM	-1.82	-2.44	-1.73	3.29	2.00

Denver Nuggets

Notable Injuries

None

Now we’re talking! The five game evening slate gets kick started with a game between the Nuggets and Nets in Brooklyn. The Nets are always a fun team to attack with opposing players in DFS, as Brooklyn leads the league in pace and ranks among the bottom five teams in the league in defensive efficiency. All aboard the Nuggets train! The problem with targeting Denver players is that it is virtually impossible to predict what Mike Malone will do on a nightly basis. After it looked like Jamal Murray had a stranglehold on the starting point guard job, he played just 20 minutes against the Hawks the other night, while Emmanuel Mudiay logged more time off the bench. Although I rail on Malone as much as anyone, this decision was justified, as Murray was not playing well and is currently shooting under 30% from the floor for the season. In addition, Wilson Chandler played just 23 minutes in the last game. Such is life with a Malone-coached squad. There will be immense risk with a lot of these players simply because the playing time is so volatile.

Despite that concern, there is plenty of appeal in such a favorable matchup. Both Murray and Mudiay are risk/reward GPP options, as it looks like Malone will ride the hot hand in crunch time. Gary Harris does get consistent playing time and is one of the safer cash game options, as is Paul Millsap. It doesn’t look like Millsap is going to play tons of minutes on this team, and he will likely settle in the 30 range. That puts a bit of a cap on his upside, as he logged 34 minutes per game a year ago on a different squad. If GPP upside is what you seek, Will Barton has a ton of it off the bench. He will also get consistent playing time as the sixth man who can play both wing spots, and he isn’t shy about looking for his offense. Nikola Jokic also has a chance to log a breakout game here.

Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets

Points Allowed Per Game: 117.3 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.6 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 109.7 (1 of 30)

Elite Plays – Nikola Jokic, Will Barton (GPP), Gary Harris (cash), Paul Millsap (cash)

Secondary Plays – Will Barton (cash), Gary Harris (GPP), Paul Millsap (GPP), Jamal Murray, Emmanuel Mudiay

Brooklyn Nets

Notable Injuries

DeMarre Carroll (Questionable)

If you didn’t play NBA DFS last year, you might not be totally familiar with the uncertainty that is the Nets’ rotation from time to time. If you need an introduction to said rotation, just take a look at the box score from their last game. Every single active player logged at least 10 minutes, and only two players logged more than 23 minutes. Nobody topped 27 minutes. Now, that game was a blowout loss, so we shouldn’t put too much stock into it, but it is still worth noting. Denver surprisingly ranks just 25th in the league in pace this year, so they are going to look to slow this game down as much as they can. DeMarre Carroll is questionable for this game, so a lot of the decisions with regard to Brooklyn will hinge on his status. If he can’t go, give an upgrade to Caris LeVert and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. LeVert started at the two in the last game and has the most upside of the bunch, but nothing is set in stone after the team got waxed in that game.

De’Angelo Russell has plenty of upside at the point, but I don’t love him with his high price tag combined with uncertain minutes and a pace down matchup. He’s more of a GPP option. As I mentioned above, Hollis-Jefferson and LeVert get a bump if Carroll can’t play. It’s very difficult to make a real strong case for anyone else on this team, as nobody is guaranteed more than 24 minutes on a nightly basis. The five game evening slate has plenty of options, and I definitely prefer targeting the other side of this game.

Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.8 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 7.0 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.9 (26 of 30)

Elite Plays – De’Angelo Russell (GPP), Caris LeVert (if Carroll is out)

Secondary Plays – De’Angelo Russell (cash), Caris LeVert (if Carroll plays), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

Orlando Magic at Charlotte Hornets – 6:00 PM ET

Orlando Magic							Charlotte Hornets
			Vegas Total		210.0					Vegas Total		210.0
			Vegas Spread		3.5					Vegas Spread		-3.5
			Implied Team Total		103.3					Implied Team Total		106.8
			Pace Projection +/-		0.0					Pace Projection +/-		5.4
Projected Starters	D.J. Augustin	Evan Fournier	Terrence Ross	Aaron Gordon	Nikola Vucevic		Projected Starters	Kemba Walker	Jeremy Lamb	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Marvin Williams	Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	14	10	24	5	25		DvP	28	14	21	28	15
DRPM	-1.14	-0.88	2.10	-0.13	2.92		DRPM	-3.28	-1.05	-1.20	-0.61	2.26

Orlando Magic

Notable Injuries

Elfrid Payton (Out)

Although the Magic/Hornets game does not have the highest total on the slate, this should still be an entertaining, fantasy-friendly game. It is expected to be a close contest, as we have just a three point spread on our hands. Elfrid Payton remains sidelined for the Magic, which means that D.J. Augustin will continue to start and play significant minutes as the starting point guard. However, his price tag is no longer a value, and he has yet to eclipse 30 minutes in a game. Shelvin Mack will get the rest of the time off the bench. It’s hard to make a strong case for Augustin and his limited upside at these prices, but I will list him as a secondary cash game option. Evan Fournier has been rolling to start the season, but regression is coming. He is not going to keep shooting 54% from the field, especially since he shot just 43% a year ago. He is over-priced right now and is an easy fade for me.

Terrence Ross is a scoring-dependent option on the wing, and I am not that excited about taking him with Aaron Gordon back in the mix. He’s a GPP-only, risk/reward option if you need a value play. Speaking of Gordon, the breakout season is officially in progress. This kid is good, folks. He is averaging 24 points and 10 boards per game, and he continues to have room to grow. With Nicolas Batum still out for the Hornets, don’t expect Gordon to slow down anytime soon. There is nobody capable of checking him on this Hornets squad, and I am not worried about Michael-Kidd Gilchrist. Fire up Gordon as a great option this evening.

Lastly, Nikola Vucevic is a very steady play at center. He is one of the most polished offensive centers in the league, and I don’t mind his matchup against Dwight Howard. Howard is a decent defender, but Vucevic still possesses plenty of potential. He’s not my first choice at the position because of his price tag, but Vucevic is definitely in the conversation with 50+ fantasy point upside.

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 94.4 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 6.0 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.8 (14 of 30)

Elite Plays – Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Nikola Vucevic (cash), D.J. Augustin (cash), Terrence Ross (GPP)

Charlotte Hornets

Notable Injuries

Nicolas Batum (Out)
Cody Zeller (Probable)

The biggest story here is that Cody Zeller is probable to return today. His return eliminates the value of Frank Kaminsky as a viable low-to-mid range option in the frontcourt. It’s impossible to trust Zeller in his first game back, and we have no idea how the minutes will be distributed, so this situation is an easy pass on all counts. The only option up front for the Hornets is Dwight Howard, who seems to be having a career renaissance as he plays for his 5th NBA team. He is averaging 14 points and 18 rebounds per game so far this season, and you know he will be excited to play against the team that he spent the longest time with. I’m not sure I would call it a “revenge game” at this point, but Howard carries merit regardless of that narrative. Nikola Vucevic is not the strongest defensive center, so fire up Howard with confidence in all formats. His price is slowly rising on all sites, but he deserves that boost.

Kemba Walker has had a relatively quiet start to the year, but this is a potential breakout spot at home against D.J. Augustin. Walker has been much better at home throughout his career, and I am fine targeting him in any format today. Howard and Walker are my favorite options on the Hornets by a wide margin. Jeremy Lamb has gotten a little too expensive for my liking, though he will continue to start with Batum sidelined. He is on the radar as a secondary play and is the only other player that can really be considered here.

Matchup vs. Orlando Magic

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.0 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 107.2 (4 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker, Dwight Howard

Secondary Plays – Jeremy Lamb

Washington Wizards at Sacramento Kings – 6:00 PM ET

Washington Wizards							Sacramento Kings
			Vegas Total							Vegas Total
			Vegas Spread							Vegas Spread
			Implied Team Total							Implied Team Total
			Pace Projection +/-		-4.5					Pace Projection +/-		2.2
Projected Starters	John Wall	Bradley Beal	Kelly Oubre	Otto Porter	Marcin Gortat		Projected Starters	De’Aaron Fox	Buddy Hield	Justin Jackson	Skal Labissiere	Willie Cauley-Stein
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	16	11	2	17	28		DvP	23	8	13	14	19
DRPM	N/A	-2.24	N/A	0.13	1.06		DRPM	-0.83	-0.94	-0.11	0.03	1.33

Washington Wizards

Notable Injuries

Kelly Oubre (Possible suspension)
Bradley Beal (Possible suspension)

Picking the right players from this game could be the key to success or failure tonight. It’s also going to be a hard game to peg. As of the time I am writing this, we do not yet know about possible suspensions for Bradley Beal and/or Kelly Oubre for their role in an on-court scrum against the Warriors the other night. if one or both of them are unable to play, we could be looking at nice value on the wings for the Wizards, and John Wall will carry massive usage. Wall is certainly a top play regardless of the status of the other players, even though Sacramento will look to slow this game down. The news regarding Beal and Oubre is the biggest thing to monitor as we head closer to lineup lock.

Assuming Beal and Oubre play, they are decent options at the thin wing positions. If they are out, however, the value on this slate truly opens up. Jodie Meeks would become the no brainer value play of the day, and Otto Porter would play massive minutes as the best wing option available. Porter has also been lights out to start the year, and though I don’t love him at his now elevated price point, it would be hard to avoid him if Beal and Oubre are out. Marcin Gortat isn’t a sexy center option, but he’s worth a look if you need a mid-range cash game play.

Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.0 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (28 of 30)

Keep an eye on Beal and Oubre status

Elite Plays – John Wall, Jodie Meeks (if Beal and/or Oubre out), Otto Porter (if Beal and/or Oubre out)

Secondary Plays – Marcin Gortat (cash), Bradley Beal (if active), Kelly Oubre (if active), Otto Porter (if Beal and Oubre active)

Sacramento Kings

Notable Injuries

George Hill (Out – Rest)
Zach Randolph (Out – Rest)

The Kings are going to rest their veterans periodically throughout the year, and I would like to thank them for being proactive with this news. They announced Hill and Randolph’s absences for this game a full day prior to tip-off, and that gives us plenty of time to prepare.

It also gives us plenty of time to say — HELLO, De’Aaron Fox! The dynamic rookie will be given the keys to the Kings offense this evening, and I am very excited to see what he can do from the driver’s seat. He has been fantastic off the bench so far this season and has already been playing around 28 minutes per game, so he should be closer to the 34-36 range tonight. He is averaging around a fantasy point per minute, so that would put him in the 34-36 fantasy point range as well. That will be more than enough to pay off his reasonable salary tag, and he has the upside for more than that in a game which should feature a tempo boost for the Kings. On a point per dollar basis, Fox is the top overall play on this entire slate.

Skal Labissiere and Willie Cauley-Stein will also get a nice boost in their playing time sans Randolph, and look for them to be very popular mid-range plays as well. I will likely pair Fox with one of these two big men on every single lineup that I prepare for this evening’s slate. Labissiere carries a bit more risk/reward potential, while Cauley-Stein is the steady option. I would expect both to start in this game. Those are the core three plays for the Kings tonight, while you might also get some upside out of a guy like Buddy Hield. He can be considered in GPP formats. You need a piece of this team thanks to the reasonable price tags across the industry and the additional opportunity provided by two key players resting.

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.4 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.2 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.0 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – De’Aaron Fox, Skal Labissiere, Willie Cauley-Stein

Secondary Plays – Buddy Hield (GPP)

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