NBA Grind Down: Thursday, February 8th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET
| Atlanta Hawks | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.5 |  | Vegas Total | 213.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 1.0 | Vegas Spread | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.3 | Implied Team Total | 107.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.6 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Ersan Ilyasova | Miles Plumlee | Projected Starters | D.J. Augustin | Evan Fournier | Jonathon Simmons | Mario Hezonja | Bismack Biyombo | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 30 | 29 | 20 | 29 | 23 | DvP | 22 | 15 | 28 | 23 | 29 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 22 | 28 | 30 | 24 | 26 | DRPM Rat. | 30 | 2 | 24 | 22 | 14 | |
Atlanta Hawks
Happy Thursday everyone! The NBA trade deadline is today at 3:00 PM ET and we have already seen a number of moves being made — the most notable ones by the Cavaliers. The Hawks traded Luke Babbitt to Miami for Okaro White, but the move isn’t going to make a difference when it comes to DFS. Atlanta draws one of the top matchups on the board tonight, as they take on a Magic team that is ranked 27th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Hawks have an implied total of 106.3 points, which gives them the second highest projected point differential (+2.5) of the slate.
Dennis Schroder is going to get overlooked tonight, despite facing a Magic team that has allowed the most fantasy points of any team to point guards this season. Schroder’s minutes have been all over the map, but he should play at least 30 in a game that features a one-point spread. Marco Belinelli has been ruled out of tonight’s game, which should open up a few extra minutes on the wing. Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince, and Tyler Dorsey could all see a small boost in playing time, which is never a bad thing when facing the Magic. I see these three as better tournament targets than cash game plays, but I plan to have more exposure to the Hawks than the field.
Ersan Ilyasova is cheap and should play around 25 minutes against a Magic defense that is ranked 29th in both DvP against power forwards and rebounding differential. I slightly prefer Ilyasova over John Collins in cash games, although you could argue that Collins has a higher ceiling for tournaments. Once again, the Hawks as a whole are going to get overlooked tonight, despite the great matchup and high team total. This is a great team to target to gain leverage on the field and you can even play a few Magic players to create a full game stack.
Notable Injuries
Marco Belinelli (Out)
DeAndre’ Bembry (Questionable)
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.8 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.3 (7 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 2.5 (3 of 12)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.2 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.9 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.9 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.9 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $7,500 | $7,300 | $13,500 | 33.6 | -1.4 | 31.3 | -1.3 | 1.07 | 29.5% | 29 | 30 | 22 |
| Kent Bazemore | $6,400 | $6,200 | $13,400 | 28.1 | 2.6 | 27.9 | -1.5 | 1.01 | 20.3% | 26 | 29 | 28 |
| Taurean Prince | $4,500 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 24.0 | -5.3 | 30.1 | -2.4 | 0.80 | 16.7% | 26 | 20 | 30 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $4,500 | $4,600 | $9,300 | 22.0 | -1.6 | 25.7 | -0.9 | 0.86 | 15.8% | 19 | 29 | 24 |
| Miles Plumlee | $3,500 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 12.2 | -1.3 | 16.9 | -2.5 | 0.72 | 10.2% | 23 | 23 | 26 |
| John Collins | $5,200 | $4,800 | $9,900 | 24.0 | -4.3 | 22.2 | 0.7 | 1.08 | 16.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Tyler Dorsey | $3,900 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 10.7 | 7.1 | 0.73 | 17.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Dewayne Dedmon | $4,900 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 23.2 | -1.0 | 23.1 | -0.9 | 1.01 | 15.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder, Ersan Ilyasova (Cash)
Secondary Plays – Ersan Ilyasova (GPP), John Collins (GPP), Kent Bazemore (GPP), Taurean Prince (GPP), Tyler Dorsey (GPP)
Orlando Magic
The Magic aren’t a team that is heading in the right direction, so keep a close eye on them throughout the trade deadline. They are already playing short-handed and if they decided to make a move, it would create an even tighter rotation for tonight’s game against the Hawks. Atlanta is always one of my favorite teams to target players against, as they are ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Magic have an implied total of 107.3 points, which is the fifth highest on the board and nearly two points above their season average.
Elfrid Payton has been traded to the Phoenix Suns, which opens the door for both D.J. Augustin and Shelvin Mack. I see them both as elite plays tonight, regardless of who draws the start. Evan Fournier draws a difficult matchup against Kent Bazemore and has been priced up across the industry. There are better plays at shooting guard tonight, but I don’t mind Fournier if you land on him as the last player in your lineup.
It will be interesting to see how highly owned Jonathon Simmons is tonight, after scoring 48 fantasy points against the Cavaliers in his last game. Given the attention he’s getting and the inflated price point, I will be looking elsewhere at small forward. I actually prefer Mario Hezonja over Simmons on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Hezonja has averaged 27 fantasy points per game with Aaron Gordon out of the lineup and he draws an exploitable matchup against Ersan Ilyasova. There are a lot of ways to get exposure to this game. If you play multiple lineups in tournaments, I’d potentially consider making two or three different game stacks.
Notable Injuries
Jonathan Isaac (Out)
Nikola Vucevic (Out)
Aaron Gordon (Out)
Jonathon Simmons (Probable)
Elfrid Payton (Traded)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 105.8 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.3 (5 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 1.5 (5 of 12)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.8 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.9 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.7 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Augustin | $4,100 | $3,600 | $7,100 | 16.4 | 5.2 | 20.4 | 4.0 | 0.80 | 18.1% | 23 | 22 | 30 |
| Evan Fournier | $6,200 | $6,600 | $12,100 | 27.8 | -3.0 | 32.4 | -3.3 | 0.86 | 20.7% | 13 | 15 | 2 |
| Jonathon Simmons | $5,800 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 23.0 | 3.9 | 28.8 | 0.6 | 0.80 | 19.7% | 30 | 28 | 24 |
| Mario Hezonja | $5,400 | $5,300 | $10,900 | 15.4 | 11.5 | 18.6 | 8.7 | 0.83 | 16.1% | 17 | 23 | 22 |
| Bismack Biyombo | $5,600 | $5,200 | $10,100 | 17.5 | 3.6 | 19.1 | 4.2 | 0.92 | 10.8% | 25 | 29 | 14 |
| Shelvin Mack | $4,500 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 14.5 | 9.7 | 17.6 | 7.3 | 0.82 | 15.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Khem Birch | $4,100 | $3,500 | $6,900 | 10.7 | -0.5 | 10.4 | 3.8 | 1.03 | 13.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Mario Hezonja, D.J. Augustin, Shelvin Mack
Secondary Plays – Evan Fournier, Jonathon Simmons
New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET
| New York Knicks | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211.5 |  | Vegas Total | 211.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 14.0 | Vegas Spread | -14.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 98.8 | Implied Team Total | 112.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jarrett Jack | Courtney Lee | Tim Hardaway | Michael Beasley | Kyle O’Quinn | Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 6 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 16 | DvP | 25 | 12 | 16 | 10 | 2 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 4 | 23 | 4 | 15 | 15 | DRPM Rat. | 17 | 16 | 16 | 26 | 5 | |
New York Knicks
The Knicks have to play tonight’s game without their starting power forward and center. Kristaps Porzingis will miss the rest of the season and Enes Kanter had to get surgery on his lacerated lip. Facing the Raptors in Toronto is a tough enough task as is, let alone without two of your best players. This game has the potential to turn into a blowout, as evidenced by the 14-point spread. The Knicks have the lowest implied total (98.8 points) and the lowest projected point differential (-5.1) of the slate, but the injuries open up a number of viable DFS plays.
Kyle Lowry is one of the best on-ball defenders in basketball, which negates any usage bump that Jarrett Jack would see without Porzingis and Kanter. I have more interest in Trey Burke, who could potentially push for 25+ minutes if the Knicks decide to play small. Burke is averaging over a fantasy point per minute this season and would likely play garbage time minutes if the game turns into a blowout. Courtney Lee and Tim Hardaway should both see a nice boost in usage as well, but they are priced up enough that I would consider them secondary options at best.
Michael Beasley and Kyle O’Quinn are basically the free squares of the slate. With Porzingis and Kanter off the floor, Beasley and O’Quinn both average over 1.20 fantasy points per minute. They will see heavy usage bumps and will obviously play more minutes as well. This is one of those situations where we can avoid the difficult matchup and take advantage of the value. Doug McDermott was just traded to the Mavericks, which opens up even more minutes on the wing. Lance Thomas is a decent punt play if you need the value in tournaments.
Notable Injuries
Kristaps Porzingis (Out)
Enes Kanter (Out)
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.8 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.8 (12 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -5.1 (12 of 12)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.9 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.5 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack | $4,000 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 20.8 | -6.1 | 26.4 | -3.3 | 0.79 | 17.9% | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Courtney Lee | $5,100 | $5,500 | $11,300 | 24.3 | -5.5 | 32.9 | -0.6 | 0.74 | 16.6% | 23 | 8 | 23 |
| Tim Hardaway | $6,000 | $6,400 | $12,600 | 28.6 | -9.9 | 32.5 | -3.1 | 0.88 | 21.9% | 2 | 7 | 4 |
| Michael Beasley | $6,200 | $6,300 | $13,200 | 21.2 | -3.1 | 19.6 | -2.1 | 1.08 | 24.7% | 9 | 9 | 15 |
| Kyle O’Quinn | $4,000 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 19.2 | -6.5 | 16.6 | -3.1 | 1.15 | 15.2% | 14 | 16 | 15 |
| Lance Thomas | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,300 | 8.4 | -4.2 | 18.0 | -5.6 | 0.47 | 9.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Trey Burke | $3,600 | $3,800 | $7,100 | 14.7 | -2.2 | 14.3 | 1.8 | 1.03 | 23.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Michael Beasley, Kyle O’Quinn, Trey Burke (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Trey Burke (Cash), Courtney Lee, Tim Hardaway, Lance Thomas
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors have won seven of their last ten games and only trail the Celtics by one for the best record in the Eastern Conference. They should be able to pick up an easy win tonight at home against an under-manned Knicks’ team. New York has been mediocre defensively this season, but will likely struggle to defend the paint without Kristaps Porzingis and Enes Kanter. The big concern with the Raptors is that their starters may not play a full complement of minutes. There is still upside though, as the Raptors have an implied total of 112.8 points.
Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan have the potential to play well here, but I’m not sure we need to take the additional risk in a game that features a 14-point spread. There are plenty of options at both point guard and shooting guard. I would rather take a chance on Delon Wright or Fred VanVleet, who would both see extended minutes in a blowout. Serge Ibaka and Jonas Valanciunas should have plenty of success against a short-handed Knicks’ frontcourt. The only question is whether they can pay off their salaries if the game gets out of hand. Once again, I’d rather take a shot on Jakob Poeltl, who would play a few extra minutes in garbage time if the game gets out of hand.
Notable Injuries
None
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 111.4 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.8 (2 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 1.3 (6 of 12)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.7 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $8,000 | $8,100 | $14,900 | 35.0 | 0.4 | 32.4 | -3.1 | 1.08 | 22.1% | 21 | 25 | 17 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $8,400 | $8,500 | $14,400 | 39.0 | -1.8 | 34.3 | -2.0 | 1.14 | 28.6% | 4 | 12 | 16 |
| OG Anunoby | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,100 | 13.0 | -1.6 | 21.2 | -1.7 | 0.61 | 10.8% | 24 | 16 | 16 |
| Serge Ibaka | $5,000 | $5,400 | $10,300 | 25.1 | -7.3 | 27.9 | -0.4 | 0.90 | 16.6% | 5 | 10 | 26 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $6,600 | $5,700 | $11,200 | 24.7 | 3.3 | 21.7 | 3.7 | 1.14 | 18.2% | 8 | 2 | 5 |
| Delon Wright | $4,400 | $4,000 | $7,300 | 19.6 | -1.9 | 21.4 | -1.2 | 0.92 | 17.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jakob Poeltl | $3,900 | $3,600 | $6,900 | 17.0 | 1.2 | 18.0 | 2.4 | 0.94 | 12.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Fred VanVleet | $4,900 | $4,600 | $8,900 | 17.2 | 8.4 | 18.6 | 6.8 | 0.93 | 19.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Fred VanVleet, Delon Wright, Jakob Poeltl, Serge Ibaka (FD), Jonas Valanciunas (DK)
Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards – 8:00 PM ET
| Boston Celtics | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206.5 |  | Vegas Total | 206.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 1.5 | Vegas Spread | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 102.5 | Implied Team Total | 104.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | Projected Starters | Tomas Satoransky | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 19 | 9 | 25 | 2 | 13 | DvP | 1 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 8 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 12 | 14 | 1 | 19 | 8 | DRPM Rat. | 20 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
Boston Celtics
The Celtics have made some amazing moves over the last few years and are sitting pretty right now. They currently own the best record in the Eastern Conference. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Wizards, who are ranked 13th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. Boston has an implied total of 102.5 points, which is the second lowest on the board and slightly below their season average. There is no love lost between these two teams, so we should expect a very competitive game tonight.
Kyrie Irving only played 22 minutes in his first game back from injury and it sounds like the Celtics will monitor his minutes again tonight. He would need to play 33-35 minutes to have some appeal in DFS and I don’t see that happening tonight. Terry Rozier should continue to have a big role off the bench, but I have a tough time paying such a premium for him. Jaylen Brown is listed as questionable tonight. If he is able to suit up, he would be on my short list of shooting guard targets on FanDuel. If he is ruled out, Jayson Tatum would become an appealing play on both sites.
It’s always fun when two brothers square off against each other, but it typically doesn’t result in extra fantasy production. Marcus Morris is a little too expensive on both FanDuel and DraftKings, especially given all of the value available tonight. Al Horford has been quiet over the last couple of weeks and his price hasn’t budged. I would have interest in Horford at a price of $6,500-$7,000, but he’s $7,400 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. His minutes could also take a hit now that Greg Monroe has been cleared to make his Celtics’ debut.
Notable Injuries
Marcus Smart (Out)
Jaylen Brown (Questionable)
Kyrie Irving (Probable)
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 103.0 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.5 (11 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5 (9 of 12)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.5 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,000 | $7,900 | $14,500 | 38.4 | -7.4 | 32.8 | -3.4 | 1.17 | 29.5% | 12 | 19 | 12 |
| Jaylen Brown | $5,500 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 25.5 | -1.8 | 31.4 | -0.1 | 0.81 | 17.8% | 7 | 9 | 14 |
| Jayson Tatum | $5,400 | $5,600 | $11,500 | 26.0 | 1.2 | 30.9 | -0.4 | 0.84 | 16.2% | 10 | 25 | 1 |
| Al Horford | $7,400 | $7,400 | $14,600 | 33.6 | -0.4 | 32.3 | -3.2 | 1.04 | 17.8% | 20 | 2 | 19 |
| Aron Baynes | $3,900 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 15.1 | 3.0 | 18.3 | 2.6 | 0.83 | 14.3% | 13 | 13 | 8 |
| Terry Rozier | $6,500 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 21.9 | 16.8 | 23.8 | 8.0 | 0.92 | 19.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Marcus Morris | $4,900 | $5,200 | $9,800 | 21.5 | -0.2 | 24.1 | -1.1 | 0.89 | 20.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Greg Monroe | $4,300 | 23.2 | 21.8 | 1.06 | 18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Jaylen Brown (if active), Jayson Tatum
Washington Wizards
The Wizards have won six of their last ten games and currently own the fourth best record in the Eastern Conference. If the regular season ended today, these two teams would meet in the second round of the playoffs. As far as the matchup goes, there are few more difficult than having to face the Celtics. On the season, Boston is ranked second in points allowed per game and first in defensive efficiency. Even though Washington is playing at home, their implied total (104 points) is still three points below their season average.
Tomas Satoransky has flashed some upside filling in for John Wall. Over his last five games, he has averaged 25 minutes and 25 fantasy points. While that’s solid, he is no longer priced at a discount and he has to face a Celtics’ defense that is ranked third in efficiency against point guards. Bradley Beal sees a massive usage boost with Wall out, but the Celtics have been deadly against shooting guards and small forwards this season. Beal and Otto Porter grade out as nice plays in most projection models, but the matchup is enough to take them out of the elite play consideration.
The Celtics have also been tough on opposing frontcourts this season. Markieff Morris has played well recently, but is overpriced across the industry. Dollar for dollar, I’d rather play Mike Scott, who is priced under $4,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Marcin Gortat continues to lose minutes to Ian Mahinmi. With Kyle O’Quinn in such a good spot at center, Gortat and Mahinmi are easy fades.
Notable Injuries
Markieff Morris (Probable)
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 107.4 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.0 (9 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -3.4 (11 of 12)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.7 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.1 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.5 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Satoransky | $4,700 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 13.9 | 11.2 | 17.4 | 8.0 | 0.80 | 14.8% | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| Bradley Beal | $8,600 | $8,600 | $16,100 | 37.9 | 4.5 | 36.1 | 1.3 | 1.05 | 26.1% | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Otto Porter | $6,700 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 29.8 | 4.7 | 31.6 | -0.5 | 0.94 | 16.7% | 1 | 9 | 3 |
| Markieff Morris | $6,300 | $6,000 | $11,900 | 22.0 | 8.8 | 26.1 | 4.2 | 0.84 | 16.4% | 13 | 3 | 2 |
| Marcin Gortat | $4,500 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 23.3 | -1.5 | 26.2 | -3.3 | 0.89 | 13.8% | 6 | 8 | 1 |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,700 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 21.7 | -2.6 | 27.3 | 0.0 | 0.80 | 16.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Mike Scott | $3,600 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 15.1 | 3.5 | 18.6 | 1.4 | 0.81 | 17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Tim Frazier | $3,700 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 13.2 | 2.2 | 15.5 | 1.6 | 0.85 | 14.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Markieff Morris, Mike Scott
Charlotte Hornets at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:00 PM ET
| Charlotte Hornets | Portland Trail Blazers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.0 |  | Vegas Total | 213.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 3.5 | Vegas Spread | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.8 | Implied Team Total | 108.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.6 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | Projected Starters | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Evan Turner | Al-Farouq Aminu | Jusuf Nurkic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 3 | 18 | 14 | 12 | 3 | DvP | 15 | 11 | 26 | 17 | 12 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 18 | 23 | 14 | 6 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 12 | 13 | 7 | 17 | 6 | |
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets have lost five of their last ten games and are now four games out of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. They draw an extremely difficult matchup tonight against the Blazers, who are ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Perhaps Vegas knows something that we don’t, as the Hornets’ implied total of 104.8 points seems a bit high. Charlotte has not played well on the road this season, sporting a record of 8-16.
The Blazers are tough against every position other than shooting guard. Kemba Walker is overpriced for the matchup, but Nicolas Batum has some appeal in tournaments. He comes into the game in great form, averaging 35 fantasy points over his last five outings. He also has the added motivation of playing his former team. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Jeremy Lamb are both cheap, but they are deep tournament darts at best in this slate. The only other option on my radar is Dwight Howard, who is priced under $8,500 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Howard is a great way to differentiate your lineups in tournaments, as the masses will gravitate to Kyle O’Quinn at center.
Notable Injuries
Marvin Williams (Probable)
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.4 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (8 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -1.7 (10 of 12)
Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.9 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.1 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | $8,300 | $8,400 | $16,500 | 37.4 | 1.5 | 35.0 | 1.6 | 1.07 | 27.1% | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| Nicolas Batum | $6,700 | $6,600 | $11,900 | 26.2 | 8.9 | 31.6 | 2.4 | 0.83 | 18.5% | 18 | 18 | 23 |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $4,200 | $4,300 | $8,300 | 20.5 | -7.0 | 26.5 | -0.5 | 0.77 | 14.8% | 15 | 14 | 14 |
| Marvin Williams | $4,400 | $4,200 | $8,600 | 19.3 | -12.4 | 26.1 | -0.8 | 0.74 | 12.7% | 7 | 12 | 6 |
| Dwight Howard | $8,200 | $8,300 | $14,500 | 37.5 | 0.2 | 31.1 | 2.0 | 1.21 | 19.1% | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Jeremy Lamb | $4,900 | $4,200 | $8,000 | 25.0 | -0.7 | 25.2 | -2.6 | 0.99 | 22.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Frank Kaminsky | $4,400 | $4,400 | $9,100 | 18.8 | -3.1 | 23.3 | 1.9 | 0.81 | 19.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Treveon Graham | $3,600 | $3,500 | $6,900 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 17.3 | 2.8 | 0.62 | 12.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Nicolas Batum (GPP), Dwight Howard (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Nicolas Batum (Cash), Dwight Howard (Cash), Jeremy Lamb (GPP)
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers are looking to snap a three-game losing streak. While a matchup against the Hornets looks less than ideal on paper, Charlotte isn’t quite as efficient away from home. Portland has an implied total of 108.3 points, which is the fourth highest of the slate and nearly four points above their season average. Portland will likely get overlooked for the most part tonight, which makes them appealing plays given their high team total.
Damian Lillard will be the top overall point guard play tonight if Russell Westbrook is unable to suit up. Kemba Walker is not a great individual defender and as a whole, the Hornets are ranked 17th in efficiency against points. With all of the value available tonight, Lillard is on my radar in both cash games and tournaments. C.J. McCollum will have to deal with two good perimeter defenders in Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, but his price point is very appealing. It’s still early, but McCollum grades out as the top point-per-dollar shooting guard in my NBA model (which is featured daily in the Court Report Live Blog).
Evan Turner is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he is unable to suit up, Maurice Harkless and Shabazz Napier could see a few extra minutes. Al-Farouq Aminu and Ed Davis are intriguing plays at power forward. Davis has plenty of upside at a price of only $3,800 on FanDuel. Jusuf Nurkic could see a few extra minutes tonight, but he draws a difficult matchup against Dwight Howard. I’m always willing to give Nurkic a look in tournaments when he’s going to be low owned, but there are safer options in cash games.
Notable Injuries
Evan Turner (Questionable)
Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Per Game: 104.5 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.3 (4 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 3.8 (1 of 12)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.4 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.1 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.4 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | $9,200 | $9,000 | $16,600 | 41.7 | 1.1 | 36.4 | -0.9 | 1.15 | 28.1% | 17 | 15 | 12 |
| C.J. McCollum | $6,900 | $6,800 | $14,500 | 33.7 | 0.4 | 36.0 | -3.1 | 0.94 | 24.6% | 10 | 11 | 13 |
| Evan Turner | $3,500 | $3,900 | $7,500 | 17.4 | -3.8 | 26.6 | -1.8 | 0.66 | 14.7% | 22 | 26 | 7 |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | $5,500 | $5,300 | $10,900 | 23.9 | 0.6 | 30.0 | -0.7 | 0.80 | 13.4% | 24 | 17 | 17 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | $6,500 | $5,800 | $11,700 | 30.4 | 3.3 | 26.6 | -1.0 | 1.14 | 22.8% | 9 | 12 | 6 |
| Ed Davis | $3,800 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 17.5 | 4.0 | 18.6 | -0.8 | 0.94 | 11.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Shabazz Napier | $3,600 | $4,400 | $9,100 | 18.4 | -8.5 | 21.6 | 1.2 | 0.85 | 18.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Maurice Harkless | $3,700 | $3,500 | $7,200 | 13.1 | -0.4 | 19.8 | -1.4 | 0.66 | 11.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic (DK GPP), Ed Davis (FD)
Secondary Plays – Jusuf Nurkic (DK Cash)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM ET
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Los Angeles Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 217.0 |  | Vegas Total | 217.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -3.0 | Vegas Spread | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 110.0 | Implied Team Total | 107.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 3.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Josh Huestis | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | Projected Starters | Josh Hart | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Brandon Ingram | Julius Randle | Brook Lopez | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 24 | 22 | 27 | 22 | 9 | DvP | 5 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 4 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 16 | 7 | 20 | 17 | 15 | DRPM Rat. | 5 | 7 | 8 | 26 | 20 | |
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder come into tonight’s game as 3-point favorites, but that’s only because two of their best players are listed as game-time decisions. Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony are both questionable and there’s a good chance that we won’t know their status before lineups lock. This makes predicting fantasy production extremely difficult, as the two are obviously responsible for a huge portion of Oklahoma City’s offense. You can’t ask for a better matchup, as the Lakers are ranked first in pace of play and 26th in points allowed per game.
If Westbrook is still questionable at the time of lineup lock, he should only be played in tournaments and only by those that don’t mind taking a few risks. This would also bring Raymond Felton into play in tournaments, as he would likely draw the start in Westbrook’s absence. It feels a bit gross, but I will be hitting the lock button on Paul George tonight. He has been in great form recently, he draws an excellent matchup against the Lakers, and he would see a boost in usage if Westbrook and/or Anthony are unable to suit up.
Given the fact that Anthony left last night’s game and didn’t return, I’d give Westbrook a slightly better chance of suiting up. If Anthony is unable to play, Jerami Grant would likely see an expanded role, whether he starts or comes off the bench. Like Felton, Grant is an excellent tournament play. Even if Westbrook and Anthony end up playing, there’s still a shot for Felton and Grant to reach value in a matchup against the Lakers. Steven Adams would typically be my cash game center in this type of matchup, but Kyle O’Quinn is a tough fade given the injuries to the Knicks’ frontcourt.
Notable Injuries
Carmelo Anthony (Questionable)
Russell Westbrook (Questionable)
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 106.6 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.0 (3 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 3.4 (2 of 12)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.7 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.9 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.2 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.1 (1 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $12,100 | $11,900 | $21,900 | 54.1 | -2.7 | 36.1 | 1.4 | 1.50 | 34.8% | 20 | 24 | 16 |
| Josh Huestis | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,700 | 8.2 | 0.6 | 14.4 | 0.7 | 0.57 | 8.2% | 16 | 22 | 7 |
| Paul George | $8,600 | $8,800 | $16,500 | 38.4 | 7.1 | 36.5 | 0.8 | 1.05 | 23.1% | 18 | 27 | 20 |
| Carmelo Anthony | $6,000 | $6,200 | $12,200 | 28.6 | -5.6 | 32.2 | -4.2 | 0.89 | 21.8% | 29 | 22 | 17 |
| Steven Adams | $6,900 | $6,700 | $12,800 | 31.4 | 2.2 | 32.3 | 2.0 | 0.97 | 14.5% | 12 | 9 | 15 |
| Jerami Grant | $5,200 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 16.8 | 9.3 | 20.5 | 3.0 | 0.82 | 14.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Raymond Felton | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,500 | 14.5 | -2.8 | 16.7 | -2.5 | 0.87 | 20.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Terrance Ferguson | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,100 | 5.6 | -3.6 | 12.5 | -3.0 | 0.45 | 9.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Paul George, Raymond Felton (GPP), Jerami Grant (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Steven Adams, Raymond Felton (Cash), Jerami Grant (Cash), Russell Westbrook (GPP)
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers made a big move today, as they acquired Isaiah Thomas from the Cavaliers. This could be a great move if Thomas can perform anywhere near the level he played at last season. Los Angeles was already planning to move Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance, so it’s a risk worth taking. They draw a difficult matchup on paper against the Thunder, but this could be a much different Oklahoma City team if Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony are unable to suit up.
With Clarkson out tonight, the Lakers will use plenty of Brandon Ingram at point guard. Ingram is technically a small forward, but he has been running the offense the last few games. The Thunder have been tough on wings this season and a matchup against Paul George is far from ideal, but Ingram offers great upside at his price point. Over his last three games, Josh Hart has averaged 35 minutes and 36 fantasy points per contest. It feels strange paying this much for Hart, but he should push for 35+ minutes once again.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is one of my favorite plays of the slate. He has not shot the ball well this season and he has struggled with consistency, but he should play 30 minutes at a minimum tonight with Clarkson and Nance out of the picture. Nance’s absence should result in a few more minutes for Kyle Kuzma, Julius Randle, and Brook Lopez. All three are borderline elite plays tonight. Kuzma is a solid target on FanDuel, while Randle and Lopez are slightly better plays on DraftKings. It’s worth noting that Lopez took 18 shots against the Thunder in their last meeting. Steven Adams is a good low-post defender, but he’s not great at defending the three-point line.
Notable Injuries
Lonzo Ball (Out)
Jordan Clarkson (Traded)
Larry Nance (Traded)
Los Angeles Lakers Offense
Points Per Game: 106.7 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (6 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 0.3 (7 of 12)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.8 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.5 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.8 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hart | $6,300 | $5,500 | $10,600 | 13.9 | 9.8 | 20.1 | 6.4 | 0.69 | 11.0% | 11 | 5 | 5 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $4,700 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 25.6 | -6.3 | 32.5 | -3.5 | 0.79 | 16.2% | 8 | 14 | 7 |
| Brandon Ingram | $7,100 | $6,500 | $12,500 | 29.9 | 4.7 | 33.9 | 1.2 | 0.88 | 20.3% | 11 | 2 | 8 |
| Julius Randle | $7,300 | $6,600 | $13,000 | 27.3 | 6.4 | 23.9 | 4.9 | 1.14 | 21.2% | 16 | 11 | 26 |
| Brook Lopez | $5,300 | $5,400 | $10,200 | 22.6 | -1.9 | 21.2 | 0.9 | 1.07 | 21.7% | 1 | 4 | 20 |
| Kyle Kuzma | $4,700 | $5,100 | $9,900 | 26.4 | -11.5 | 29.9 | -6.9 | 0.88 | 20.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Corey Brewer | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,200 | 8.9 | 0.2 | 12.5 | -1.6 | 0.71 | 12.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |