NBA Grind Down: Thursday, March 15th

by Aaron Hendrix (thehazyone) Last Updated 2018-03-15 19:58:42

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Toronto Raptors							Indiana Pacers
			Vegas Total		213.5					Vegas Total		213.5
			Vegas Spread		-4.0					Vegas Spread		4.0
			Implied Team Total		108.8					Implied Team Total		104.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.1					Pace Projection +/-		0.6
Projected Starters	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	Malcolm Miller	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas		Projected Starters	Cory Joseph	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Myles Turner
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	10	5	12	10	25		DvP	6	3	5	8	19
DRPM Rat.	19	1	26	7	17		DRPM Rat.	3	22	12	13	14

Toronto Raptors

Pace 100.19 (11th)
ORTG 111.3 (4th)
DRTG 102.7 (4th)

Welcome to the Grind Down for this nine-game Thursday slate. The GOAT Notorious is off to do GOAT things at the DraftKings NBA Live Final. Our co-founder and CEO, Cal Spears, took down the very last seat last night and will be joining him along with stlcardinals84. Let’s wish the boys well and I know they will make the RotoGrinders community proud!

Those familiar with my work here on RotoGrinders, like the Information Overload articles for the NFL Playoffs, will know I take a data-driven approach when doing analysis. There’s always room for leverage plays based on ownership and playing hunches in DFS tournaments, but I think it’s up to the individual to utilize game theory once they have all the information available to them. My goal is to provide you that information. My elite and secondary plays for the day are chosen not because they are sexy plays (although they might be, I mean have you seen the eyebrows on Anthony Davis???), but rather because the projections for these players have them standing out for a particular reason (matchup, volume, pricing inefficiencies, or a combination of those factors). I hope you find the information useful and feel free to leave comments throughout the day. I’ll do my best to answer them as well as provide updates to the analysis for any late-breaking news that occurs.

The Raptors are slight favorites visiting the Indiana Pacers who are below league average in pace (20th) and are also top 12 in defensive efficiency. This should be a slight hit to the fantasy production of the Raptors who will likely be missing Norman Powell, but that’s not a injury that has significant DFS relevance other than securing Fred VanVleet playing time. The rookie guard has a modest price tag at both sites and if he were ever to get into the 30’s in terms of minutes he’d be a top notch play. As it is, I only see him getting about 25 minutes making him a secondary option on DK and borderline secondary on FD where his price is $200 higher.

The price for Kyle Lowry on FanDuel is too cheap at $7,300 and with his consistent minutes and production is a secondary option there. The only other viable options on the Raptors for me tonight are DeMar DeRozan, C.J. Miles, and Serge Ibaka, but when you have nine games and eighteen teams to choose from you have to narrow your player pool to the plays you like best. Those three would only be part of a team/game stack for me tonight. Miles price tag on FanDuel is appealing though and I wouldn’t hate using him as a punt option. De

Notable Injuries

Norman Powell (Doubtful)

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 112.3 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (8 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -3.6 (16 of 18)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.3 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Fred VanVleet (DK), Kyle Lowry (FD)

Indiana Pacers

Pace 98.57 (20th)
ORTG 107.3 (11th)
DRTG 105.3 (11th)

This is not a great matchup for the Pacers as the Raptors are an elite defensive unit. That being said, there are plenty of viable options to utilize from Indiana tonight because they are priced affordably and the team comes in hot having won three straight and six of their last seven. Darren Collison, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Cory Joseph (on DK) are all priced under $5K and should see between 25-30 minutes of playing time (Collison will be at the lower end of that threshold with the other two closer to the higher number). Those three are all secondary options along with Victor Oladipo who is not cheap, but he is the focal point of the offense and is always worth consideration in GPP’s.

The top play for the team, however, is Myles Turner who should see 30+ minutes at under $7K. The Raptors biggest weakness on defense is against the center position where they rank 19th in DVP. Turner is a safe bet to hit five times his salary and has the upside to hit 40+ fpts. He’s one of my top center options of the night.

The only other Pacers that should see substantial playing time are Thaddeus Young, Trevor Booker, and Lance Stephenson. None of those three are in play for me as Young is too inefficient with is production and the other two just don’t see the court enough.

Notable Injuries

Domantas Sabonis (Out)
Trevor Booker (Questionable)

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 105.9 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (15 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -1.2 (13 of 18)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.4 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.7 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.0 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (11 of 30)

Elite Plays – Myles Turner

Secondary Plays – Darren Collison, Victor Oladipo, Bojan Bogdanovic, Cory Joseph (DK)

Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers							New York Knicks
			Vegas Total		217.0					Vegas Total		217.0
			Vegas Spread		-9.0					Vegas Spread		9.0
			Implied Team Total		113.0					Implied Team Total		104.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.6					Pace Projection +/-		1.8
Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	J.J. Redick	Robert Covington	Dario Saric	Joel Embiid		Projected Starters	Emmanuel Mudiay	Courtney Lee	Tim Hardaway	Lance Thomas	Enes Kanter
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	27	18	21	14	11		DvP	12	19	18	16	12
DRPM Rat.	30	18	18	17	29		DRPM Rat.	1	26	1	24	2

Philadelphia 76ers

Pace 101.39 (5th)
ORTG 106.0 (13th)
DRTG 103.1 (5th)

The 76ers visit the tanking Knicks who have lost 8 straight and 16 of their last 17 and have the highest projected total for any of the road teams playing today at 113. Ben Simmons on paper has a great matchup – the problem is his price makes it hard to justify rostering him. At nearly $9K on both sites, he’d need to get 45+ fantasy points for you to feel good about using him and that’s a number he’s topped just once in his last ten games. He’s a fringe secondary play for me because of the matchup but one I’ll avoid.

Joel Embiid is also right at that line where price starts to outmatch expected production. At nearly $10K, he’s also a borderline secondary option but one I can tolerate given his 50+ fpt upside (a number he’s reached in 5 of his last 15 games). Ersan Ilyasova, J.J. Redick, and Marco Belinelli are all affordable options that will top 20+ minutes. I like Belinelli most on DK where he is just $3,500 and Ilyasova on FD where he is $3,900. At around $5K on both sites, Redick is a fairly safe bet to hit 5x.

The top play for Philly tonight is Dario Saric, who is questionable. If he plays as I expect him to, he should top 30 minutes with a price tag in the low to mid $6K range and has a plus matchup.

Notable Injuries

Dario Saric (Questionable)
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (Questionable)

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 107.8 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.0 (3 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 5.2 (6 of 18)

Matchup vs. New York Knicks

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.3 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.4 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (17 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dario Saric

Secondary Plays – Ersan Ilyasova, J.J. Redick, Joel Embiid, Marco Belinelli

New York Knicks

Pace 99.02 (17th)
ORTG 103.8 (24th)
DRTG 108.2 (21st)

The big question mark of the day for the Knicks is the status of Tim Hardaway Jr. who is listed as questionable with a sprained ankle. He missed practice and with nothing to play for, there is a good chance he sits this game out. If he does play, he’s certainly in play as a secondary option as he has topped 30 fpts in five of his last 10 games including three of 39+. Most would probably think Frank Ntilikina would be the biggest beneficiary, but he’s already been averaging 25+ minutes a game of late and is averaging under 15 fpts a game. I think the most likely beneficiary in terms of playing time would be Courtney Lee who has seen a significant dip in playing time with the emergence of Emmanuel Mudiay. It’s even possible Michael Beasley tops 30 minutes as a result of THJ sitting and if that’s the case, he’s in play.

Author’s Note – Thomas has been ruled out. Williams and O’Quinn now are secondary options

I’d also keep an eye on the status of Lance Thomas as he is also questionable. If he is unable to go, Troy Williams and Kyle O’Quinn should eat up the 20 or so minutes and both would become viable secondary options at their price tags. I’ll update the status of these two situations later today when we learn more.

Speaking of Mudiay, he’s been seeing plenty of opportunity and his minutes are steady in the 25-30 range. At just $4,600 on FD, he’s an elite option there. The other top option for the Knicks today is center Enes Kanter, but only on FanDuel where his price is just $5,800. He’s put up 39 and 56 fpts his last two games out against the 76ers. His price on DK makes him a fringe secondary option there.

Notable Injuries

Tim Hardaway Jr. (Questionable)
Lance Thomas (Out)

New York Knicks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.9 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.0 (17 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 0.1 (12 of 18)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.1 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.7 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.4 (5 of 30)

Elite Plays – Emmanuel Mudiay (FD), Enes Kanter (FD)

Secondary Plays – Michael Beasley (FD), Emmanuel Mudiay (DK), Tim Hardaway Jr., Kyle O’Quinn, Troy Williams

Charlotte Hornets at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets							Atlanta Hawks
			Vegas Total		220.0					Vegas Total		220.0
			Vegas Spread		-4.5					Vegas Spread		4.5
			Implied Team Total		112.3					Implied Team Total		107.8
			Pace Projection +/-		0.7					Pace Projection +/-		0.8
Projected Starters	Kemba Walker	Nicolas Batum	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Marvin Williams	Dwight Howard		Projected Starters	Dennis Schroder	Tyler Dorsey	Taurean Prince	John Collins	Dewayne Dedmon
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	25	20	30	27	28		DvP	15	14	25	15	17
DRPM Rat.	29	24	26	15	13		DRPM Rat.	17	12	10	13	9

Charlotte Hornets

Pace 100.38 (9th)
ORTG 105.9 (15th)
DRTG 106.8 (18th)

The Hornets face one of the worst teams in the league in the Atlanta Hawks tonight. If it wasn’t for that, there wouldn’t be much to like in terms of DFS plays, but facing a team that is 29th in total DVP and 20th or worse in DVP against every position, I’d be foolish to gloss the matchup over. That said, there is no one that is a must play for me, especially with Nicolas Batum price soaring to nearly $8K.

The price tags for Marvin Williams, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Frank Kaminsky put them firmly in play as secondary options. All three are under $5K on every site and are projected to see 25 or so minutes. Batum, Dwight Howard, and Kemba Walker all have a similar problem of being just a little too expensive for their production. I like Howard the best of the three given the whole “revenge” narrative and his matchup and don’t mind using those three in team or game stacks, but I don’t think any of them are close to being must plays.

We’ll need to keep an eye on the status of Jeremy Lamb. He’s questionable and if he is unable to play, then that increases the value of Malik Monk who would become a viable punt option at his minimum price across the industry.

Notable Injuries

Cody Zeller (Doubtful)
Jeremy Lamb (Questionable)

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 107.0 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.3 (5 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 5.3 (5 of 18)

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.7 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.3 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.6 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (10 of 30)

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Marvin Williams, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Frank Kaminsky (FD), Dwight Howard

Atlanta Hawks

Pace 100.31 (10th)
ORTG 103.1 (26th)
DRTG 108.2 (22nd)

The Hornets aren’t quite the defensive team they used to be as they rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive DVP and efficiency and are 14th or worse in DVP against every position including 25th against small forward. Which leads me to the question of Taurean Prince. I’m not going to list him as an elite or secondary play because his price has jumped up to $6,800 on DK and $7,000 on FD and his projection would return around 4.5x at that price point. However, if I’m building multiple GPP lineups, I think he’s someone you have to plug in the 10-20% range given the matchup and his recent play that has seen him top 45 fpts each of the last two games.

Now that I have that out of the way, let’s talk about Dennis Schroder. He’s struggled of late and has seen his price drop significantly as a result. Despite those struggles, he’s still topped 30 fpts in five of the last seven games. He’s one of my favorite mid-range guard plays of the day. Another elite option, but only on DK is Dewayne Dedmon. He’s only $4,700 on DK as opposed to $5,800 on FanDuel. He’s a good bet to get 25+ minutes, which should lead to an easy 5x for him at his DK pricetag.

Mike Muscala and John Collins are also too cheap on DraftKings and are secondary options.

Notable Injuries

Malcolm Delaney (Out)
Jaylen Morris (Out)
DeAndre Bembry (Out)
Antonius Cleveland (Out)

Atlanta Hawks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.6 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (11 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 4.2 (7 of 18)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.6 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.8 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.6 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.4 (8 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder, Dewayne Dedmon (DK)

Secondary Plays – Mike Muscala (DK), John Collins (DK)

Los Angeles Clippers at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers							Houston Rockets
			Vegas Total		224.5					Vegas Total		224.5
			Vegas Spread		11.0					Vegas Spread		-11.0
			Implied Team Total		106.8					Implied Team Total		117.8
			Pace Projection +/-		0.5					Pace Projection +/-		1.7
Projected Starters	Austin Rivers	Lou Williams	Sindarius Thornwell	Tobias Harris	DeAndre Jordan		Projected Starters	Chris Paul	James Harden	Trevor Ariza	P.J. Tucker	Clint Capela
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	8	16	10	3	23		DvP	16	29	23	24	22
DRPM Rat.	2	18	15	9	3		DRPM Rat.	26	29	4	18	7

Los Angeles Clippers

Pace 101.26 (6th)
ORTG 108.0 (7th)
DRTG 106.4 (15th)

The Clippers continue to surprise without CP3 and Blake Griffin as they have won three straight and five of their last 6 and are currently the #7 seed in the West. They get to face off against one of the best teams in the league tonight in the Houston Rockets and the game has the highest total on the board with the Rockets double digit favorites. That blowout possibility dampers our expectations slightly for this game, but there are still some viable options we need to evaluate.

A big reason for the Clippers surprising success is the play of Lou Williams and Tobias Harris. Both consistently see 35 or so minutes of playing time and are capable of putting up big numbers. As such, they are always in consideration for GPP’s. I don’t mind them as part of a team or game stack, but I think their prices remove them from must play consideration. Williams is close to a secondary option on FanDuel where you must roster two shooting guards, but I can’t list everyone so I’ll leave him off today.

The three I do like as secondary options are DeAndre Jordan on DK where his price is just $8,100, Milos Teodosic on FD where his price is just $4,100, and Austin Rivers (on both sites).

Notable Injuries

Avery Bradley (Out)

Los Angeles Clippers Offense

Points Per Game: 109.4 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.8 (13 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -2.7 (15 of 18)

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.3 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Austin Rivers, DeAndre Jordan (DK), Milos Teodosic (FD)

Houston Rockets

Pace 100.11 (14th)
ORTG 113.3 (2nd)
DRTG 104.2 (8th)

The Rockets currently have the best record in the NBA and have started a new winning streak of two games after having their 17 game streak snapped by the Raptors recently. They have the highest total on the slate and only Ryan Anderson not playing. The Clippers are 29th in DVP against shooting guards. That’s usually good news for any shooting guard, but it’s even better news when your shooting guard is named James Harden. He’s my top overall play of the slate and you should do whatever you can to try and roster him. The only concern (and it’s a valid one) is a blowout. That is the one thing preventing him from being a 100% lock for me.

Chris Paul at just $8,300 on FD is an elite play there and he’s also viable at $8,600 on DK. Clint Capela is too cheap on DK at just $6,300 and is a secondary option for me there. I want to like more from the Rockets given the high total, but the lack of usage/production and the prices for the remaining players makes that difficult to do. Eric Gordon and Trevor Ariza are fine as fringe GPP options. The rest of the team just doesn’t see enough playing time to warrant consideration unless you buy into a blowout happening. If that’s your predicted game script, then throwing in a few Gerald Green and Joe Johnson shares is understandable.

Notable Injuries

Ryan Anderson (Out)

Houston Rockets Offense

Points Per Game: 113.7 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 117.8 (1 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 4.1 (8 of 18)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.0 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.3 (6 of 30)

Elite Plays – Chris Paul (FD), James Harden

Secondary Plays – Chris Paul (DK), Clint Capela (DK)

Chicago Bulls at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM ET

Chicago Bulls							Memphis Grizzlies
			Vegas Total		212.5					Vegas Total		212.5
			Vegas Spread		2.0					Vegas Spread		-2.0
			Implied Team Total		105.3					Implied Team Total		107.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.8					Pace Projection +/-		0.5
Projected Starters	Kris Dunn	Zach LaVine	David Nwaba	Noah Vonleh	Robin Lopez		Projected Starters	Kobi Simmons	Tyreke Evans	Dillon Brooks	JaMychal Green	Marc Gasol
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	18	25	13	13	1		DvP	22	28	16	23	21
DRPM Rat.	23	6	17	28	10		DRPM Rat.	13	27	11	4	20

Chicago Bulls

Pace 100.16 (13th)
ORTG 101.8 (27th)
DRTG 108.6 (26th)

The Bulls visit Memphis tonight in what is the ugliest game of the night. The Grizzlies play at the slowest pace in the league, which probably masks their woeful efficiency on defense (29th). That’s the only thing from keeping this game a complete avoid is just how bad both teams are on defense.

Lauri Markkanen has been ruled out and that means that Noah Vonleh will be the massive chalk of the night and deservedly so. Vonleh is just $3,800 on DK and $3,600 on FanDuel and should see a minimum of 25 minutes at that price tag. He’s put up 45 fpts in 45 minutes his last two games out. He should be safe for 20, with upside for 25-30, which makes him hard to avoid at under $4K. Rostering him will also allow you to pay up for someone like James Harden with ease.

If Cameron Payne ever saw his minutes go into the 25+ range he’d be a more viable option, but as it is he’s stuck in the low 20’s and is a fringe secondary option. That’s about where I have Bobby Portis and Zach LaVine as well. Close, but their price rules them out of making the cut. Denzel Valentine, Kris Dunn, and David Nwaba are the other three Bulls players who should see minutes in the 20’s, but I’ll pass on those three tonight as Nwaba is too inefficient and the other two don’t produce enough for their price tags.

Notable Injuries

Paul Zipser (Questionable)
Lauri Markkanen (Out)

Chicago Bulls Offense

Points Per Game: 103.5 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.3 (14 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 1.8 (10 of 18)

Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.4 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.9 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.8 (30 of 30)

Elite Plays – Noah Vonleh

Secondary Plays – None

Memphis Grizzlies

Pace 96.82 (30th)
ORTG 101.5 (29th)
DRTG 107.4 (20th)

It’s never fun rostering someone from the Grizzlies. They are 30th in pace and 29th in ORTG. Tonight though, there is one player in particular I have my eyes on and that’s Marc Gasol. He’s priced affordably at just under $8K and will have a mismatch against the bevy of big men the Bulls throw his way. He’s an elite option if Tyreke Evans (questionable) doesn’t play and a secondary one if Evans does.

Other then Gasol the only Grizzlies I am interested in are Evans if he plays and Jarrell Martin on FanDuel. I’ll pass on the inefficiency of Dillon Brooks, Kobi Simmons, and Ben McLemore and the price for JaMychal Green is too high.

Notable Injuries

Andrew Harrison (Out)
Mario Chalmers (Doubtful)
Tyreke Evans (Questionable)

Memphis Grizzlies Offense

Points Per Game: 98.6 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.3 (12 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 8.7 (3 of 18)

Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.5 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.6 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – Marc Gasol (if Tyreke Evans doesn’t play)

Secondary Plays – Tyreke Evans, Jarell Martin (FD), Marc Gasol (if Tyreke Evans plays)

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