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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, March 24th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-03-25 02:15:22

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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New Orleans Pelicans at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM

New Orleans Pelicans Indiana Pacers
neworleansnba Vegas Total 207.5 indiananba Vegas Total 207.5
Vegas Sprd 13.0 Vegas Sprd -13.0
Team Proj. 97.3 Team Proj. 110.3
Team Pace 99.20 Team Pace 99.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jrue Holiday Toney Douglas Dante Cunningham Luke Babbitt Omer Asik Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Myles Turner Ian Mahinmi
Opp. Season 9 9 7 9 14 Opp. Season 20 26 14 17 29
Last 3 Weeks 11 1 26 5 25 Last 3 Weeks 28 29 15 27 18

New Orleans Pelicans

Record: 26-44 — Road: 8-27 — Last 10: 3-7

The Pelicans have lost seven of their last ten games and are now 18 below .500 on the season. The only thing they can do now is play the role of spoiler for teams that are still in the playoff hunt. New Orleans is listed as a 13-point underdog tonight against the Pacers in Indiana. The Pelicans are only projected to score 97.3 points, which gives them the second lowest team total and the second lowest projected point differential tonight.

The Pacers have been a below-average matchup for fantasy production. On the season, they are ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. As we all know, Anthony Davis, Tyreke Evans, and Eric Gordon are all out for the season. Ryan Anderson is expected to miss tonight’s game, while Norris Cole is listed as questionable. While the matchup is less than appealing, there are a few viable options on the Pelicans thanks to all of the injuries.

Elite Plays

Jrue Holiday
jrue-holiday-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,200 Salary:$8,400
Position:SG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.06 FP/Min:1.15
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.1 35.1 7.0 34.1 6.0
FPPG (FD) 29.9 36.9 7.0 34.8 4.9
TO-Adj. Usage 25.0 26.1 1.1 25.0 0.1

This is a tricky situation, as the Holiday would likely be the first starter that the Pelicans would rest if this game gets out of hand. However, given his role in the offense, I’m willing to take my chances tonight. Over his last five games, he is averaging 34.8 fantasy points and he could end up having a usage rate north of 30 the rest of the season. If the Pelicans are going to have any chance in this game, it will be thanks to a big outing from Holiday.

Toney Douglas
toney-douglas-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,100 Salary:$5,100
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.77 FP/Min:0.85
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 18.2 29.6 11.4 31.6 13.4
FPPG (FD) 14.1 25.0 10.9 30.5 16.4
TO-Adj. Usage 16.1 18.0 1.9 19.4 3.3

Douglas has seen a major swing in his minutes on a nightly basis. However, as long as Norris Cole is ruled out, I am going to consider him an elite play tonight against the Pacers. He draws a slightly better matchup than Jrue Holiday (who will likely be defended by George Hill) and he has been nearly as productive, averaging 30.5 fantasy points over his last five games. Douglas is still a bit too cheap for his role in this offense, especially since Ryan Anderson has been ruled out.

Secondary Plays

Omer Asik
omer-asik-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,900 Salary:$4,100
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.72 FP/Min:0.75
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 17.1 16.5 -0.6 21.2 4.1
FPPG (FD) 12.3 11.3 -1.0 18.3 6.0
TO-Adj. Usage 8.1 9.4 1.4 12.3 4.2

Asik has played well in back-to-back games. He scored 30 fantasy points in 35 minutes against the Clippers and then backed it up with 21 fantasy points in 21 minutes against the Heat. With Ryan Anderson still out, I expect him to play at least 25 minutes tonight against the Pacers, who have a big frontcourt with Ian Mahinmi and Myles Turner. Asik is a low-risk, medium-reward target in all league formats.

Luke Babbitt
luke-babbitt-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,800 Salary:$4,000
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.62 FP/Min:0.66
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 14.5 20.9 6.4 23.6 9.1
FPPG (FD) 9.0 15.5 6.5 16.6 7.6
TO-Adj. Usage 13.0 16.1 3.0 15.3 2.3

Babbitt is the shiny new toy that everyone is going to gravitate towards tonight. He had himself a game against the Heat, scoring 30 fantasy points in 35 minutes of action. While I expect the minutes to be there again tonight, I’m not expecting a repeat performance. With him starting at small forward, Paul George will likely be defending him. I expect Babbitt to have a higher ownership, but I actually prefer Cunningham at a similar price point.

Dante Cunningham
dante-cunningham-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,800 Salary:$3,800
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.50 FP/Min:0.53
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 22.8 30.7 7.9 28.3 5.5
FPPG (FD) 11.5 16.1 4.6 15.4 3.9
TO-Adj. Usage 8.5 8.6 0.2 10.0 1.6

After he scored 19 actual points against the Clippers, I warned everyone that we shouldn’t expect another offensive outing like that. He is not a scorer by nature and he generally racks up his fantasy points by hustle – rebounds, blocks, and steals. That’s certainly not a bad thing though, especially when we can project him to play 35+ minutes. If deciding between the two, I am going to give a slight edge to Cunningham over Babbitt, with Asik being my favorite cheap target of the three.

Indiana Pacers

Record: 37-33 — Home: 21-13 — Last 10: 6-4

The Pacers have won six of their last ten games and are currently in seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings. They need to be careful though, as they hold a slim lead over the Pistons and Wizards, who currently sit in ninth and tenth place in the East. The Pacers should be able to pick up a win over the Pelicans tonight at home. They are projected to score 110.3 points, which gives them the highest team total and the highest projected point differential.

The Pelicans have been anything but stout defensively this season. They are ranked 22nd or worse in all four defensive categories listed above. The Pacers’ offense sees a nice boost as a whole in this matchup, but there is the concern that this game could turn into a blowout. The Pelicans are decimated and are playing with second and third-string players.

Elite Plays

Paul George
paul-george-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,000 Salary:$8,500
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.10 FP/Min:1.21
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.5 36.0 0.5 35.6 0.1
FPPG (FD) 39.1 41.6 2.5 39.1 0.0
TO-Adj. Usage 25.3 26.4 1.2 27.0 1.8

Everything lines up for a monster game from George tonight. He draws an excellent matchup against the Pelicans and he comes into this game in great form averaging 41.6 fantasy points over his last ten games. I expect a very efficient game from George tonight, the only concern is his playing time. If this game gets out of hand, he could end up playing close to 30 minutes. However, if the Pelicans keep it close, his upside is immense.

Secondary Plays

Monta Ellis
monta-ellis-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,500 Salary:$6,100
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.81 FP/Min:0.86
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.5 36.2 1.7 35.3 0.8
FPPG (FD) 27.9 30.8 2.9 28.5 0.7
TO-Adj. Usage 17.9 17.0 -1.0 15.4 -2.6

There are very few times during an NBA season where I actually roster Ellis. It’s not that he is a bad play, I just tend to gravitate toward other options at shooting guard. I’m going to give him a hard look tonight against the Pelicans, who are ranked 26th against shooting guards this season. With shooting guard being such a thin position, Ellis is a viable option in all league formats.

George Hill
george-hill-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,500 Salary:$5,000
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.69 FP/Min:0.74
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.9 33.4 -1.5 31.6 -3.3
FPPG (FD) 24.1 23.5 -0.6 24.5 0.4
TO-Adj. Usage 14.1 14.2 0.0 15.0 0.9

Hill was a popular play the other night, after coming off of that monster outing against the Thunder. He had a decent outing against the Sixers, but it was more along the lines of what we all should have been expecting. He is a low usage point guard that doesn’t have a huge role in the offense. He is in play tonight against the Pelicans, but I see him as more of a lineup filler than a guy that I am actively trying to target.

Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM

Chicago Bulls New York Knicks
chicagonba Vegas Total 203.5 newyorknba Vegas Total 203.5
Vegas Sprd -5.0 Vegas Sprd 5.0
Team Proj. 104.3 Team Proj. 99.3
Team Pace 98.80 Team Pace 95.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Mike Dunleavy Taj Gibson Pau Gasol Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Sasha Vujacic Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez
Opp. Season 18 16 8 6 18 Opp. Season 28 15 26 24 25
Last 3 Weeks 25 18 4 9 16 Last 3 Weeks 23 17 27 19 9

Chicago Bulls

Record: 36-34 — Road: 12-21 — Last 10: 6-4

The Bulls have won six of their last ten games and are clinging onto the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Every game from here on out will be treated as a must win, as the Wizards and Pistons are hot on their trail. Tonight’s game is a rematch of last night’s battle against the Knicks, although this time it will be played in New York. The Bulls are projected to score 104.3 points, which gives them the fourth highest team total and the third highest projected point differential.

The Knicks have been a neutral fantasy matchup for most of the season. They are rank between tenth and 19th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. If you look at the DvP table above, you will see that the Knicks make our job easy. They defend small forwards and power forwards well, while they struggle against point guards, shooting guards, and centers. E’Twaun Moore and Cameron Bairstow have both been ruled out of tonight’s game. Pau Gasol is listed as questionable in the second half of a back-to-back. If he is ruled out, Taj Gibson would become a strong play.

Elite Plays

Jimmy Butler
jimmy-butler-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,300 Salary:$7,200
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.01 FP/Min:1.05
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.3 32.8 -4.5 32.6 -4.7
FPPG (FD) 37.5 35.1 -2.4 33.3 -4.2
TO-Adj. Usage 22.1 22.3 0.2 21.9 -0.2

Butler didn’t have a great game last night against the Knicks, shooting 3-of-11 and only scoring seven actual points. He played some tremendous defense on Carmelo Anthony though, and still managed to put up a respectable 30 fantasy points. The most promising statistic was that he played 36 minutes. With the Bulls in must-win mode, Butler should see 35+ minutes the rest of the way. Given the lack of shooting guard options tonight, he is an elite play in all league formats.

Secondary Plays

Derrick Rose
derrick-rose-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,700 Salary:$5,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.85 FP/Min:0.91
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.9 31.3 -0.6 30.5 -1.4
FPPG (FD) 27.2 28.9 1.8 27.6 0.4
TO-Adj. Usage 23.4 23.1 -0.3 22.5 -0.9

Rose has quietly strung together a nice ten-game stretch, averaging 28.9 fantasy points in 31.3 minutes per contest. His upside hasn’t been great during that stretch, but he has been very consistent. Given his price on DraftKings, he can be considered a borderline elite play tonight against the Knicks. He scored 31 fantasy points in this matchup last night and the Knicks are ranked 18th against point guards on the season.

Doug McDermott
doug-mcdermott-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,000 Salary:$3,900
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.58 FP/Min:0.63
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 23.3 25.2 1.9 27.8 4.5
FPPG (FD) 13.5 18.1 4.6 24.7 11.2
TO-Adj. Usage 15.1 17.7 2.7 19.1 4.0

Dougie Fresh aka Dougie Buckets aka the McDermottator has been playing great recently, averaging 24.7 fantasy points in just under 28 minutes over his last five games. He is clearly outplaying Mike Dunleavy and he appears to have earned a spot in the rotation moving forward. He’s not my favorite play tonight, but is certainly worth a look if you are looking to punt the small forward position.

New York Knicks

Record: 29-43 — Home: 16-19 — Last 10: 4-6

The Knicks have lost six of their last ten games, but they did pick up a win over the Bulls last night in Chicago. They now get to face them again tonight at home, but are still listed 5-point underdogs. The Knicks are only projected to score 99.3 points, which gives them the third lowest team total and the fifth lowest projected point differential.

The Bulls’ defense is much better with Jimmy Butler on the floor. Even though the Knicks were able to put up 115 points against Chicago last night, we shouldn’t expect a repeat this time around. The Knicks have a low team total and we should consider this a neutral matchup at best. Lance Thomas was unable to suit up last night and should be considered doubtful for tonight’s game.

Elite Plays

Kristaps Porzingis
kristaps-porzingis-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,900 Salary:$5,400
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.08
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.0 27.3 -0.7 32.7 4.7
FPPG (FD) 28.1 24.9 -3.2 27.5 -0.6
TO-Adj. Usage 20.5 23.1 2.6 21.8 1.3

It seems like we’ve had this similar situation for Porzingis four or five times this season. He finally starts to see consistent minutes, he starts to put up some nice fantasy outings, and then all of the sudden, he plays 20 minutes and puts up a dud. I’m not fully buying into the recent boost in minutes, but at this point, why wouldn’t the Knicks be giving him all the minutes that he can handle? I wouldn’t be actively targeting him in a full slate, but with only five games on the schedule, he is one of the top power forward plays on the board. He has scored at least 27 fantasy points in three straight games.

Secondary Plays

Carmelo Anthony
carmelo-anthony-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,700 Salary:$8,000
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.07 FP/Min:1.13
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.5 37.3 1.8 37.5 2.0
FPPG (FD) 37.9 40.5 2.6 36.9 -1.0
TO-Adj. Usage 25.3 24.0 -1.3 22.4 -2.9

Anthony doesn’t have a great track record against Jimmy Butler and the Bulls. In his last five meetings against Butler, he has scored 24, 23, 40, 32 and 32 fantasy points. Basically, he has come close to reaching value once during that stretch. I’ve included him here in the Grind Down because there aren’t many small forwards in play tonight. However, I may employ a full Melo fade tonight.

Robin Lopez
robin-lopez-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,000 Salary:$5,600
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.85 FP/Min:0.90
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.6 29.6 3.0 33.1 6.5
FPPG (FD) 22.6 27.5 4.9 31.7 9.1
TO-Adj. Usage 14.2 15.0 0.8 15.3 1.1

RoLo is another one of those players that has been playing well, but never seems to find himself on any of my rosters. I just tend to gravitate toward other options at center. That will likely be the case tonight, as DeAndre Jordan and Mason Plumee are both in nice spots. Lopez has been playing well recently though, averaging 31.9 fantasy points over his last five games. He also draws an exploitable matchup against the Bulls.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM

Cleveland Cavaliers Brooklyn Nets
clevelandnba Vegas Total 206.5 brooklynnba Vegas Total 206.5
Vegas Sprd -6.0 Vegas Sprd 6.0
Team Proj. 106.3 Team Proj. 100.3
Team Pace 95.40 Team Pace 96.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov Proj. Starter Shane Larkin Sergey Karasev Bojan Bogdanovic Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez
Opp. Season 24 24 21 21 24 Opp. Season 16 8 3 1 1
Last 3 Weeks 8 30 29 24 17 Last 3 Weeks 13 23 2 3 12

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 51-20 — Road: 21-14 — Last 10: 7-3

The Cavaliers have won seven of their last ten games, including a win over the Bucks last night. While nothing has been announced, this could be a good spot to rest one of the big three. Tyronn Lue has already said that they will prioritize rest down the stretch of the regular season and the spread looks a little wonky (yes, wonky) tonight. The Cavaliers are only 6-point favorites against the lowly Nets. They are projected to score 106.3 points, which is the third highest team total on the board.

The Nets have really struggled defensively this season, ranking 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Cavaliers are in a great spot as a whole, but their fantasy appeal hinges on whether or not they decide to rest one of their big three tonight. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving logged 37 and 38 minutes, respectively last night.

There are three likely scenarios tonight for the Cavaliers and here is a breakdown of how I would treat each:

LeBron James, Kevin Love, and Kyrie Irving all play – This would make it easier to fade the Cavaliers altogether, but it would still be a favorable matchup for all three. In this case, I would consider Love a borderline elite play, with James and Irving being secondary options.

LeBron James rests – This would give a boost to the rest of the Cavaliers’ lineup, specifically Irving, Love, and Smith. All three would be considered elite plays against this Nets’ porous defense. All three would see a boost in minutes and/or usage.

Kyrie Irving rests – This would give a boost to the rest of the Cavaliers’ lineup, specifically James, Love, and Smith. All three would be considered elite plays, as the Nets do not defend any position particularly well.

Elite / Secondary Plays

LeBron James
lebron-james-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,900 Salary:$9,200
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.25 FP/Min:1.34
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.6 34.3 -1.3 33.2 -2.4
FPPG (FD) 44.5 44.1 -0.4 43.5 -1.0
TO-Adj. Usage 27.5 27.7 0.2 28.1 0.6
Kyrie Irving
kyrie-irving-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$6,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.97 FP/Min:1.04
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.8 33.8 3.0 32.7 1.9
FPPG (FD) 30.0 31.2 1.2 27.1 -2.9
TO-Adj. Usage 25.8 24.9 -0.9 24.9 -0.9
Kevin Love
kevin-love-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,400 Salary:$6,600
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.01 FP/Min:1.10
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.8 28.7 -3.1 26.8 -5.0
FPPG (FD) 32.0 26.4 -5.6 25.2 -6.8
TO-Adj. Usage 19.5 19.6 0.1 20.6 1.0
J.R. Smith
j.r.-smith-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,300 Salary:$4,500
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.66 FP/Min:0.72
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.5 29.4 -1.1 28.2 -2.3
FPPG (FD) 20.3 19.4 -0.9 17.2 -3.1
TO-Adj. Usage 16.4 16.4 0.0 15.7 -0.6

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 19-51 — Home: 12-24 — Last 10: 2-8

The Nets have lost eight of their last ten games and are only 12-24 at home this season, yet they are only listed as 6-point underdogs against the top seeded Cavaliers. This is somewhat of a trap game for Cleveland and as I mentioned above, they may decide to rest one of their big three. Even though Brooklyn is expected to keep the game close, they still have the fourth lowest team total at only 100.3 points.

By now, you should know that I hate targeting players against the Spurs, Cavaliers, Heat, and Jazz. They are the four best defensive teams in the NBA and they make it very tough for players to reach value against them. The Cavaliers are ranked third in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. If the slate was larger, I would be avoiding the Nets altogether, but there are two plays that have my interest piqued.

Elite Plays

Shane Larkin
shane-larkin-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,500 Salary:$3,000
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.78 FP/Min:0.82
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 21.0 22.9 1.9 21.6 0.6
FPPG (FD) 16.3 16.1 -0.2 15.2 -1.1
TO-Adj. Usage 15.2 15.0 -0.2 13.9 -1.4

The Nets announced that Larkin will enter the starting lineup for tonight’s game against the Cavaliers. It will be interesting to see if that leads to a boost in minutes, or if they will continue to stagger the minutes at point guard. I’m leaning toward the latter, but we still have an opportunity to target a minimum priced starting point guard tonight. The one position that the Cavaliers have struggled to defend this season has been point guard. On a night with very little value, I’m going to list him as an elite play.

Secondary Plays

Thaddeus Young
thaddeus-young-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,700 Salary:$6,900
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.94 FP/Min:1.00
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.2 34.1 0.9 32.3 -0.9
FPPG (FD) 31.2 35.1 3.9 37.3 6.1
TO-Adj. Usage 18.3 19.3 1.0 17.9 -0.4

Targeting bigs against the Cavaliers has not been a profitable strategy this season. They are ranked first in fantasy points allowed to both power forwards and centers. While that’s a concern, the Nets’ points have to come from somewhere, right? Young has been on a tear over his last ten games, averaging over 35 fantasy points per contest. I see him as more of a GPP play tonight.

Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM

Utah Jazz Oklahoma City Thunder
utahnba Vegas Total 198.0 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 198.0
Vegas Sprd 9.5 Vegas Sprd -9.5
Team Proj. 94.3 Team Proj. 103.8
Team Pace 93.40 Team Pace 99.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Shelvin Mack Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams
Opp. Season 22 22 10 8 5 Opp. Season 8 2 2 2 2
Last 3 Weeks 19 12 22 26 6 Last 3 Weeks 10 2 1 12 4

Utah Jazz

Record: 35-36 — Road: 13-23 — Last 10: 7-3

After looking like they were dead in the water last night against the Rockets, the Jazz mounted an incredible comeback to pick up a huge win in Houston. The Jazz are now tied with the Mavericks for the seventh seed in the Western Conference. There is a good chance that they lose some ground tonight though, as they draw a tough matchup against the Thunder. The Jazz are only projected to score 94.3 points, which gives them the lowest team total and the third lowest projected point differential.

The Thunder have been a mediocre matchup for fantasy production this season. They are ranked between 11th and 16th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Where they really excel is on the glass. Oklahoma City has the best rebounding differential in the NBA. With such a low team total and the potential for this game to turn into a blowout, I am going to tread lightly with the Jazz tonight. I will be avoiding both Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert, as the Thunder are very tough on opposing frontcourts.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Gordon Hayward
gordon-hayward-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,700 Salary:$6,700
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.87 FP/Min:0.94
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.2 36.4 0.2 37.5 1.3
FPPG (FD) 31.5 28.7 -2.8 28.1 -3.4
TO-Adj. Usage 22.0 20.5 -1.5 20.5 -1.5

I see Hayward as more of a GPP play tonight, but it’s a good opportunity to buy low on the talented small forward. He has been dealing with plantar fasciitis, but looked sharp in last night’s win over the Rockets. He finished the game with 45 fantasy points in 40 minutes of action. Hayward also has a decent track record against the Thunder, scoring at least 34 fantasy points in four of their last six meetings.

Shelvin Mack
shelvin-mack-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,300 Salary:$6,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.89 FP/Min:0.94
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 16.5 31.7 15.2 33.6 17.1
FPPG (FD) 14.7 30.0 15.3 34.6 19.9
TO-Adj. Usage 21.3 20.0 -1.3 19.7 -1.6

The thought of paying $6,300 for Mack last night in a 12-game slate was a little too much for me. However, he is certainly playable tonight with only five games on the slate. Mack has been on fire over his last five games, averaging close to 35 fantasy points per game. He also draws an excellent matchup against the Thunder, who are ranked 22nd against point guards this season.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 49-22 — Home: 28-9 — Last 10: 7-3

The Thunder have won seven of their last ten games, but can’t really move up or down in the standings. They are basically locked into the three seed in the Western Conference. They are sizable favorites tonight against the Jazz, but this is not a great matchup for fantasy production. The Thunder are only projected to score 103.8 points, which is 6.5 points below their scoring average for the season.

As I mentioned earlier, the Jazz are one of a handful of teams that I try to avoid targeting players against. They play at the slowest pace of any team in the league and they are ranked second in both points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game. That’s not to say that we can’t target any Thunder players in a five game slate, but we should certainly temper our expectations. Serge Ibaka and Enes Kanter are both decent mid-range options at their respective positions, but the Jazz are ranked second against both power forwards and centers this season.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Russell Westbrook
russell-westbrook-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,800 Salary:$10,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.42 FP/Min:1.56
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.6 34.7 0.1 32.0 -2.6
FPPG (FD) 49.2 47.0 -2.2 51.0 1.8
TO-Adj. Usage 28.4 26.4 -2.0 28.4 -0.1

Westbrook is not a must play tonight. He will still look to push the tempo, but the Thunder will likely have at least a few less possessions than they usually do against this slow-paced Jazz team. Westbrook comes into this game in great form, posting a triple-double in four of his last five games. He doesn’t have a great track record against Utah though, averaging 47 fantasy points in their last five meetings.

Kevin Durant
kevin-durant-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,500 Salary:$9,900
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.28 FP/Min:1.40
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.0 35.5 -0.5 32.9 -3.1
FPPG (FD) 46.2 47.9 1.6 46.8 0.6
TO-Adj. Usage 25.9 26.9 1.0 27.9 2.0

Durant is in the same boat as Russell Westbrook – he is a fine play, but he may not quite reach salary expectations against a tough Jazz defense. In his last four meetings against Utah, Durant is averaging just under 44 fantasy points per game. These guys are superstars, so they can obviously play well in any matchup, but this may not be the night to pay up for Durant and Westbrook.

Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:30 PM

Portland Trail Blazers Los Angeles Clippers
portlandnba Vegas Total 212.5 laclippersnba Vegas Total 212.5
Vegas Sprd 4.5 Vegas Sprd -4.5
Team Proj. 104.0 Team Proj. 108.5
Team Pace 97.90 Team Pace 98.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Noah Vonleh Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Jeff Green Luc Richard Mbah a Moute DeAndre Jordan
Opp. Season 7 6 11 10 17 Opp. Season 25 19 4 22 26
Last 3 Weeks 22 3 24 28 3 Last 3 Weeks 30 21 7 23 21

Portland Trail Blazers

Record: 37-35 — Road: 15-23 — Last 10: 4-6

The Blazers have lost six of their last ten games and are getting dangerously close to falling out of the playoffs. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Clippers in Los Angeles. The Blazers are listed as 4.5-point underdogs with an implied team total of 104 points. They have the fourth lowest projected point differential at -0.6.

The Clippers are much better defensively than they are given credit for. While they are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, they are ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Meyers Leonard is not expected to play tonight, which gives a nice boost to Mason Plumlee. Maurice Harkless started over Noah Vonleh last night, but that could have been solely for matchup purposes. He could be an interesting punt tonight if he draws another start.

Elite Plays

Mason Plumlee
mason-plumlee-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,200 Salary:$4,700
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.94 FP/Min:1.00
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.4 24.7 -0.7 28.0 2.6
FPPG (FD) 23.8 22.8 -1.0 28.0 4.2
TO-Adj. Usage 14.1 13.7 -0.4 14.9 0.8

When it comes to Plumlee, his splits are drastically different with Meyers Leonard in and out of the lineup. In the 11 games that Leonard has missed this season, Plumlee is averaging 30 minutes and 30 fantasy points per game. It’s hard to believe, but Plumlee is averaging an elite 0.94 FP/min this season. His price has come up a bit across the industry, but he is still an elite play tonight against the Clippers, who do not fare well against centers.

Secondary Plays

Damian Lillard
damian-lillard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,900 Salary:$9,000
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.11 FP/Min:1.23
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.0 36.4 0.4 36.2 0.2
FPPG (FD) 40.1 39.9 -0.2 37.4 -2.7
TO-Adj. Usage 27.8 27.9 0.1 25.9 -2.0

I try not to make a habit of targeting point guards that are facing Chris Paul. Even at his old age, he is still one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA. Lillard has scored 40 or fewer fantasy points in six of his last seven meetings against CP3. You can look to Lillard as a contrarian tournament play, but there are better options for cash games.

C.J. McCollum
c-j-mccollum-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,900 Salary:$6,700
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.91 FP/Min:0.98
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.9 34.8 -0.1 35.2 0.3
FPPG (FD) 31.7 29.9 -1.8 32.2 0.5
TO-Adj. Usage 23.9 22.9 -0.9 25.4 1.5

With Lillard in such a tough matchup tonight, that could result in a higher usage for McCollum. We saw that last night with the Warriors, as Klay Thompson had a big game against the Clippers. McCollum struggled to get it going last night against the Blazers, but he had scored at least 40 fantasy points in each of his previous three games.

Al-Farouq Aminu
al-farouq-aminu-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,700 Salary:$3,700
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.73 FP/Min:0.80
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.4 25.4 -3.0 27.2 -1.2
FPPG (FD) 20.8 17.0 -3.7 21.3 0.6
TO-Adj. Usage 14.1 14.0 -0.1 14.9 0.9

The biggest concern with Aminu this season has been his minutes. While he has played 35 and 36 minutes in his last two games, that may have had more to do with the matchup (against Dirk Nowitzki) than it did a rotation change. Aminu still offers decent value at small forward, but I am not going to project him to play more than 28-30 minutes tonight.

Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 43-27 — Home: 22-12 — Last 10: 3-7

The Clippers have lost seven of their last ten games, but it hasn’t made an impact on their playoff seeding. They are basically locked into the four seed, unless they have a huge collapse in their last 12 games. The Clippers are 4.5-point favorites tonight against the Blazers. They are projected to score 108.5 points, which gives them the second highest team total and the second highest projected point differential.

The Blazers have been a slight above-average matchup for fantasy production this season. They are ranked 17th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Clippers’ starters did log a lot of minutes last night against the Warriors, but given the low spread tonight, we should project them to play their usual complement of minutes. J.J. Redick offers decent value tonight, but I’d rather spend up and take C.J. McCollum if you are looking for a shooting guard in this game.

Elite Plays

Chris Paul
chris-paul-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,900 Salary:$9,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.25 FP/Min:1.35
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.3 33.8 0.5 32.5 -0.8
FPPG (FD) 41.8 45.2 3.4 43.8 2.0
TO-Adj. Usage 24.7 24.8 0.2 24.8 0.2

Paul had one of the worst first halves in recent memory last night. He bounced back in the second half, but still fell short of salary expectations. I’m expecting a nice bounce-back outing from him tonight at home. The Blazers have not been great against point guards over the last two seasons and Paul has had some big outings against them in the past (averaged 58 fantasy points against them last season).

DeAndre Jordan
deandre-jordan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,100 Salary:$7,700
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.11
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.2 35.2 1.0 34.7 0.5
FPPG (FD) 35.5 39.2 3.7 32.8 -2.8
TO-Adj. Usage 12.1 13.6 1.4 11.8 -0.4

If you are paying up at center tonight, Jordan is clearly the top target. He is a double-double machine that should have success tonight against the Blazers’ frontcourt. Jordan comes into this matchup in solid form, averaging just under 40 fantasy points per game in his last ten contests. In three meetings against the Blazers this season, Jordan is averaging 42.5 fantasy points.

Secondary Plays

NONE

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious