NBA Grind Down: Thursday, October 26th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-10-27 00:13:21

NOTE: The Grind Down update can be found in the CourtReport Live Blog

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics							Milwaukee Bucks
			Vegas Total		205.5					Vegas Total		205.5
			Vegas Spread		4.0					Vegas Spread		-4.0
			Implied Team Total		100.8					Implied Team Total		104.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.8					Pace Projection +/-		-1.0
Projected Starters	Kyrie Irving	Jaylen Brown	Jayson Tatum	Al Horford	Aron Baynes		Projected Starters	Malcolm Brogdon	Tony Snell	Khris Middleton	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Thon Maker
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	22	3	11	28	15		DvP	5	2	26	6	26
DRPM	-0.73	-0.79	0.54	1.49	-0.53		DRPM	-2.16	-0.10	N/A	1.59	2.81

Boston Celtics

Notable Injuries

Marcus Smart (Questionable)
Marcus Morris (Out)

The Celtics haven’t exactly blown the competition away this season. They are 2-2 and there are some major question marks about their ability to compete in the Eastern Conference. It’s still early in the season, but there are some concerns. Tonight they head to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks in what could be a slower paced game than most realize. Both of these teams are ranked in the bottom half of the league in pace of play and in the top half of the league in points allowed per game. The Celtics’ implied team total of 100.8 points is the third lowest of the slate.

The Bucks have some long, athletic defenders in Giannis Antetokounmpo, Tony Snell, and Khris Middleton. The two starters that should avoid those three matchups are Kyrie Irving and Al Horford. I keep waiting for a breakout game from Irving, but perhaps this is the Irving that we should expect moving forward. He’s played well, he just hasn’t taken over this offense. This slate doesn’t feature many obvious plays at point guard, so he’s firmly in play on the road in a game where the Celtics may need him to carry the load offensively.

Marcus Smart is questionable once again. If he’s out, that means more minutes for the likes of Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Terry Rozier. All three have played well in Smart’s absence, but they are all priced at a premium and none of the three has a standout matchup against the Bucks. Brown and Tatum are viable, but are secondary plays at their respective positions. Horford may end up starting at power forward, but he’ll spend most of his time at center. The Bucks currently have the third worst rebounding differential, while Horford is averaging over a fantasy point per minute.

Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.0 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.3 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -6.3 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (22 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving

Secondary Plays – Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford

Milwaukee Bucks

Notable Injuries

Malcolm Brogdon (Probable)

The Bucks have a solid young core and still have Jabari Parker on the shelf. If they can stay healthy, they could end up being one of the surprise teams in the Eastern Conference. They have the potential to be a defensive force, although they have yet to show it consistently. Tonight they host the Celtics in a game that features a total of 207 points. Boston was expected to be an offensive juggernaut this season, but they are actually ranked sixth in points allowed per game and seventh in defensive efficiency.

Malcolm Brogdon practiced on Wednesday and is tentatively expected to return to the lineup tonight. If that’s the case, he’ll resume his 34-36 minute role as the starter with Matthew Dellavedova heading back to the bench. The weakest defender in the Celtics lineup is Kyrie Irving, so Brogdon carries some appeal in tournaments. If he’s unable to suit up, I’m more than fine going back to Delly, even though his upside is limited. Khris Middleton is only averaging 0.82 FP/min, but the usage (25%) is there and he is averaging over 35 minutes per game. His floor makes him a viable cash game target.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is basically matchup-proof at this point. His efficiency and true shooting percentage have gone up every year that he’s been in the league, as has his usage. Typically, there is an inverse relationship between efficiency and usage, but Giannis is out here breaking all of the rules. At this point, you could be putting yourself at a big disadvantage any time you try to fade him. He does so much on the floor that foul trouble is really the only thing that can slow him down.

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 97.8 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 97.4 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.0 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.8 (17 of 30)

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo

Secondary Plays – Malcolm Brogdon, Khris Middleton

Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM ET

Dallas Mavericks							Memphis Grizzlies
			Vegas Total		198.5					Vegas Total		198.5
			Vegas Spread		8.0					Vegas Spread		-8.0
			Implied Team Total		95.3					Implied Team Total		103.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-4.8					Pace Projection +/-		-3.8
Projected Starters	Dennis Smith	Wesley Matthews	Dorian Finney-Smith	Harrison Barnes	Dirk Nowitzki		Projected Starters	Mike Conley	Andrew Harrison	James Ennis	Jarell Martin	Marc Gasol
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	15	5	3	8	29		DvP	23	29	8	21	13
DRPM	-0.50	0.17	1.40	1.38	0.84		DRPM	N/A	0.25	-0.17	-0.08	0.81

Dallas Mavericks

Notable Injuries

Devin Harris (Out)
Josh McRoberts (Questionable)
Dirk Nowitzki (Questionable)

The Mavericks beat the Grizzlies last night at home, but now have to turn around and face them again in Dallas. Last night’s game combined for 197 points and tonight’s total is set at 196.5 points. The Mavericks are listed as 8-point underdogs with the lowest implied team total (95.3 points) of the slate. Even though Dallas played well last night, the Grizzlies are not a defense that I like targeting players against. On the season, they are ranked 27th in pace of play and third in points allowed per game.

Even though the Mavericks put up 103 points last night, they didn’t have any standout fantasy performances outside of J.J. Barea 14 points, five rebounds, and four assists. Dallas has a deep rotation and they don’t give anyone 30+ minutes a night except Wesley Matthews and Harrison Barnes and both are faced with difficult matchups tonight.

Dennis Smith is the most intriguing play here. He’s a volatile rookie, but he has the best matchup of the five starters and should see around 30 minutes at a reasonable price on DraftKings ($5,400). Dirk Nowitzki price is tempting, but there a chance he could be rested or limited in the second half of a back-to-back. If he ends up being a late scratch, Nerlens Noel and Dwight Powell would both become viable.

Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Points Allowed Per Game: 94.0 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 96.7 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.3 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.9 (27 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dennis Smith (DK)

Secondary Plays – Dennis Smith (FD), Wesley Matthews (DK), Harrison Barnes (DK)

Memphis Grizzlies

Notable Injuries

Wayne Selden (Questionable)
Mario Chalmers (Questionable)
Chandler Parsons (Probable)

The Grizzlies didn’t have their best game last night, but they get a chance to right the ship tonight. This time they get to face the Mavericks in Memphis. Home-court advantage should benefit Memphis, as evidenced by the fact that they are 8-point favorites. While the Mavericks goal is to slow the pace as much as possible, that doesn’t really hurt the Grizzlies, since they are used to playing in half-court sets. The fact that Dallas is ranked dead last in defensive efficiency and rebounding differential is enticing. The Grizzlies implied team total of 103.3 points is the fourth highest on the board.

Of the five starters, Mike Conley and Marc Gasol draw the best two individual matchups. Conley hasn’t exactly been the model of consistency, but he did score 35 fantasy points against Dennis Smith and the Mavericks last night. His price is more than reasonable, especially if you are looking for a low-owned point guard target in tournaments. The Grizzlies don’t have any elite wing players, but they have a lot of good ones. Mario Chalmers, Tyreke Evans, James Ennis, Chandler Parsons, and Dillon Brooks will all play significant minutes tonight. While roulette can be fun every now and then, I’d rather play it in Vegas instead of Memphis.

With JaMychal Green out, the Grizzlies have relied on Gasol to play big minutes. He has played at least 36 minutes in each of the last three games and the fantasy production has followed — 56, 37, and 49 fantasy points. Dirk Nowitzki has little chance of containing him, especially on the glass. He’ll also see some of Nerlens Noel, but he’s a better shot-blocker than an actual low-post defender. Gasol is a fine cash game option at center.

Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks

Points Allowed Per Game: 112.5 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 114.4 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -12.8 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – Mike Conley (Cash), Marc Gasol (Cash)

Secondary Plays – Mike Conley (GPP), Marc Gasol (GPP), James Ennis, Mario Chalmers (DK), Tyreke Evans (DK)

Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks							Chicago Bulls
			Vegas Total		201.5					Vegas Total		201.5
			Vegas Spread		3.0					Vegas Spread		-3.0
			Implied Team Total		99.3					Implied Team Total		102.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-3.1					Pace Projection +/-		2.7
Projected Starters	Malcolm Delaney	Kent Bazemore	Taurean Prince	Mike Muscala	Dewayne Dedmon		Projected Starters	Jerian Grant	Justin Holiday	Paul Zipser	Lauri Markkanen	Robin Lopez
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	11	19	28	27	11		DvP	20	23	15	24	10
DRPM	0.45	0.32	-0.09	N/A	0.24		DRPM	-0.42	-1.09	2.66	-0.74	4.86

Atlanta Hawks

Notable Injuries

Dennis Schroder (Out)
Ersan Ilyasova (Questionable)

We have two bad teams with the total for the game set at only 201.5 points. This doesn’t sound like a great game to target for fantasy production, but it’s actually one of my favorites in the slate. Both teams have struggled in terms of defensive efficiency and they are both ranked in the bottom seven in rebounding differential. We also have injuries that have condensed the rotations and the usage in both offenses. The Hawks are listed as 3-point underdogs with an implied team total of 99.3 points.

Dennis Schroder has already been ruled out of tonight’s game. Malcolm Delaney really struggled in his spot start on Tuesday, but there were encouraging signs. He played 33 minutes and he has an 18% usage rate with Schroder off the floor this season. We should always have interest in cheap point guards in DFS because they are going to have the ball in their hands more than most value plays. Kent Bazemore has a 22% usage rate on the season, but a 28% usage rate with Schroder off the floor. He has played at least 30 minutes in back-to-back games and could be the focal point of the Hawks’ offense.

Taurean Prince finally cracked the 30-minute mark against the Heat, scoring 33 fantasy points in the process. He’s not a particular exciting play, but he makes sense in a cash game setting where we are looking for a high floor. If Ersan Ilyasova is ruled out again, we can give a bump to Mike Muscala, Dewayne Dedmon, and John Collins. Of the three, I feel the best about Dedmon, who is priced appropriately and in a plus-rebounding matchup. And finally, we have Marco Belinelli, who continues to play big minutes off the bench with a high usage rate.

Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 111.4 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.7 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (24 of 30)

Elite Plays – Malcolm Delaney, Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince (FD)

Secondary Plays – Taurean Prince (DK & FDRFT), Dewayne Dedmon, Marco Belinelli (GPP)

Chicago Bulls

Notable Injuries

Kris Dunn (Out)
Paul Zipser (Questionable)

The Bulls nearly beat the Cavaliers in Cleveland the other night. Unfortunately, it likely says more about the state of the Cavaliers than it does the Bulls. This is arguably their best matchup to date, as the Hawks are ranked fifth in pace of play and 22nd in points allowed per game. I’m always looking to target players in pace-up spots against bad defenses. Chicago comes into the game with an implied team total of 102.3 points, which is six more than their average on the season.

As strange as it sounds, an argument can be made for each of the five starters. Jerian Grant is coming off of a career game against Cleveland. It feels odd paying this much for a perennial backup, but Grant should play over 30 minutes in a favorable matchup against Malcolm Delaney. Justin Holiday is one of my favorite contrarian plays on the board. He’s had a string of difficult matchups and he’s still managed to average 30 fantasy points a game. His price is reasonable and he draws an exploitable matchup against Kent Bazemore. If Paul Zipser is unable to suit up, Denzel Valentine could make an interesting value play.

Lauri Markkanen is a name that no casual NBA fan outside of Chicago has ever heard. He is a big man with a really nice touch from beyond the arc. He has already taken 22 three pointers this year and he’s made ten of them. I don’t expect anyone to play him tonight, even though he’s one of the only power forwards that we can project to see minutes in the mid-30s. Robin Lopez is typically a player we’d expect to see with a 13-16% usage rate, but it’s up to 21% this season. I’m not sure it’s sustainable though, and I don’t love his matchup against Dewayne Dedmon.

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.0 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.9 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.2 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.5 (5 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jerian Grant (DK), Justin Holiday, Lauri Markkanen (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jerian Grant (FD & FDRFT), Lauri Markkanen (Cash), Robin Lopez, Denzel Valentine (if Zipser is out)

Los Angeles Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers							Portland Trail Blazers
			Vegas Total		211.5					Vegas Total		211.5
			Vegas Spread		2.5					Vegas Spread		-2.5
			Implied Team Total		104.5					Implied Team Total		107.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.1					Pace Projection +/-		0.7
Projected Starters	Patrick Beverley	Austin Rivers	Danilo Gallinari	Blake Griffin	DeAndre Jordan		Projected Starters	Damian Lillard	C.J. McCollum	Maurice Harkless	Al-Farouq Aminu	Jusuf Nurkic
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	6	11	4	4	14		DvP	3	15	10	1	12
DRPM	-1.39	-1.93	0.33	2.91	2.56		DRPM	1.89	-1.78	0.38	0.41	3.57

Los Angeles Clippers

Notable Injuries

None

The Clippers and Blazers’ game has the highest total (211.5 points) of the slate and should be a popular one for DFS targets. Despite losing Chris Paul in the offseason, the Clippers have yet to lose a game and they currently own the league’s best point differential (+25). The Blazers have been tough defensively this season, but that hasn’t been their calling card over the years. The Clippers implied team total of 104.5 points is the third highest on the board.

Patrick Beverley is going to get overlooked tonight, but that could be a mistake, especially on DraftKings ($5,200). Whenever he is facing an elite point guard, I always give him a slight minutes bump in my projections. He lives to compete against the best offensive players in the world. He doesn’t have any big games against Lillard in the last two seasons, but he has a bigger role in the Clippers’ offense than he did in the Rockets’ offense.

Austin Rivers seems to be over-owned on a regular basis. I have a hard time pulling the trigger on a player that is averaging 0.50 FP/min with a usage rate of only 17%. Even though Lou Williams plays fewer minutes, I’d much rather target him off the bench. He is capable of scoring 20+ actual points every night. Danilo Gallinari has a difficult matchup against Maurice Harkless and the Blazers, who are ranked fourth in fantasy points allowed to small forwards.

This feels like a slate where everyone will be clamoring to squeeze Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan into their lineups. While Griffin has as much upside as any player not-named Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Blazers have a very good defensive frontcourt. They are also ranked first in rebounding differential. I’m not expecting Griffin or Jordan to put up duds, but if they don’t quite reach value, we can gain some leverage on the field.

Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Points Allowed Per Game: 94.5 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 93.4 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 16.0 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.7 (15 of 30)

Elite Plays – Patrick Beverley (DK), Lou Williams

Secondary Plays – Patrick Beverley (FD & FDRFT), Austin Rivers, Danilo Gallinari (DK), Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan

Portland Trail Blazers

Notable Injuries

Noah Vonleh (Out)
Meyers Leonard (Doubtful)

The Blazers have the highest implied team total on the board, even though they are facing a Clippers’ team that has been routinely ranked in the top five in total defense over the last few years. While they lost Chris Paul, they picked up an equally pesky defender in Patrick Beverley. Through three games, the Clippers are ranked first in points allowed per game, first in defensive efficiency, and third in rebounding differential.

Damian Lillard is a fade for me tonight, which is scary given the fact that he can win a slate by himself. He had one big outing against Patrick Beverley in the last two seasons, but two subpar ones. I have a ton of respect for his defense and will not be using many point guards against the Clippers this season. If Lillard is held in check, this should set up as a C.J. McCollum and/or a Jusuf Nurkic game. McCollum should eat up the likes of Austin Rivers, Danilo Gallinari, and Lou Williams.

Maurice Harkless and Evan Turner have both been averaging minutes in the upper 20s, but the Blazers may not be able to play as much small ball tonight against a frontcourt of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan. The likely scenario is that the bigs play more, which cuts into the time for these SG/SFs. I’m still fine using both at their price points, but they aren’t going to get the elite play tag from me. There are two routes for Al-Farouq Aminu here. He’s either going to be limited by foul trouble or he’s going to have a big game. The Blazers may need him to play 32-34 minutes here and given his ability to fill up the stat sheet, I like his upside in tournaments.

Jusuf Nurkic should fly under the radar tonight, after averaging 26 fantasy points per game thus far. He has gotten into foul trouble early in games, which has limited his minutes and taken him out of rhythm. We know the upside is there and we know the usage (30%) is as well. DeAndre Jordan isn’t exactly a big man that is going to post up and draw fouls, so I like Nurk’s chances of playing a full complement of minutes.

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Points Allowed Per Game: 88.0 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 86.1 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 8.7 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.5 (12 of 30)

Elite Plays – C.J. McCollum, Al-Farouq Aminu (GPP), Jusuf Nurkic (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Damian Lillard, Maurice Harkless, Evan Turner, Al-Farouq Aminu (Cash), Jusuf Nurkic (Cash)

New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings – 10:30 PM ET

New Orleans Pelicans							Sacramento Kings
			Vegas Total		206.0					Vegas Total		206.0
			Vegas Spread		-1.5					Vegas Spread		1.5
			Implied Team Total		103.8					Implied Team Total		102.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-4.5					Pace Projection +/-		2.4
Projected Starters	Jrue Holiday	E’Twaun Moore	Dante Cunningham	Anthony Davis	DeMarcus Cousins		Projected Starters	George Hill	Buddy Hield	Justin Jackson	Zach Randolph	Willie Cauley-Stein
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	17	17	2	17	20		DvP	13	27	30	20	21
DRPM	0.60	-2.24	N/A	-1.06	1.06		DRPM	1.40	-1.63	-0.47	3.65	0.57

New Orleans Pelicans

Notable Injuries

Anthony Davis (Questionable)

In my opinion, no NBA season officially starts until Anthony Davis leaves a game early with an injury. The craziest part about his injuries is that he’s always questionable to play the very next game. Obviously, these aren’t serious injuries or the Pelicans would hold him out longer. It’s baffling to me, but it’s what we’ve come to expect from the Glass Brow. Tonight the Pelicans head to Sacramento to take on a slow-paced Kings’ team. New Orleans has an implied total of 103.8 points, which is respectable compared to the other teams in this slate.

I usually start with point guard and work my way down, but we’ll start with the elephant in the room — Anthony Davis. He is listed as questionable and there’s a chance that he could come down to a game-time decision. With this being a late tip, we may not know his status before lineups lock. If we know that he’s active, he’ll make one of the top tournament plays on the board. If we don’t know his status, fire up DeMarcus Cousins as a must play. Not only will he have the revenge narrative going for him, but he would have that added equity built in if Davis was eventually ruled out.

Jrue Holiday could see a slight bump in usage if Davis is ruled out, but I don’t really want to count on that happening if we don’t know beforehand. Unlike Cousins, Holiday could struggle to reach value if Davis ends up being active. Jameer Nelson hasn’t played great in his first two games with New Orleans, but he is averaging 27 minutes. I will gladly take 27 minutes from a point guard at his price point.

Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.5 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.0 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (28 of 30)

Elite Plays – DeMarcus Cousins

Secondary Plays – Anthony Davis (GPP – if active), Jrue Holiday, Jameer Nelson

Sacramento Kings

Notable Injuries

None

The Kings are 1-3 to start the season. This is clearly a year to tank in order to get a better draft pick. Although, after signing a bunch of veterans, who knows what the Kings are trying to accomplish. Tonight they host the Pelicans, who are currently ranked seventh in pace of play and 23rd in points allowed per game. This is a nice matchup for Sacramento and the fact that they are playing at home should help keep the game close. Their implied team total of 102.3 points is significantly higher than their season average.

I’m taking the game against the Suns and throwing the results out the window. The Kings’ starters forgot to show up and their bench came in and played well. This led to inflated minutes for the bench and deflated minutes for the Kings. I expect that to normalize tonight in a game that they should keep close throughout. George Hill has been awfully quiet this season. While I like the price point, he’s more of a secondary play until he is more aggressive in this offense.

Buddy Hield minutes have fallen off the map the last two games, but one was a blowout against the Nuggets and the other was the aforementioned game against the Suns. It’s not crazy to think that he’ll play around 30 minutes tonight against his former team. Hield leads the starters in usage (26%) and he put up 30 fantasy points in his one and only start against the Pelicans last season. I’m also expecting more minutes for Willie Cauley-Stein here, but he’ll have to deal with DeMarcus Cousins. Foul trouble is always a concern for centers facing the Pelicans. De’Aaron Fox has looked great so far, but he seems a bit expensive for a player coming off the bench, whose minutes and production are both volatile.

Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Points Allowed Per Game: 111.5 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.2 (7 of 30)

Elite Plays – Buddy Hield (GPP)

Secondary Plays – George Hill, De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield (Cash), Zach Randolph, Skal Labissiere