NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, April 10th

by Allan Lem (fathalpert) Last Updated 2018-04-11 02:39:46

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

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Legend & FAQ

Charlotte Hornets at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets							Indiana Pacers
			Vegas Total		217.5					Vegas Total		217.5
			Vegas Spread		5.5					Vegas Spread		-5.5
			Implied Team Total		106.0					Implied Team Total		111.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.3					Pace Projection +/-		1.1
Projected Starters	Kemba Walker	Nicolas Batum	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Marvin Williams	Dwight Howard		Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Myles Turner
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	6	6	10	12	22		DvP	17	18	25	16	16
DRPM Rat.	19	1	24	5	12		DRPM Rat.	20	13	12	13	9

Charlotte Hornets

Notable Injuries

Dwayne Bacon (Out), Treveon Graham (Out)

Hello Grinders, Happy Tuesday. We have a nice six games on this penultimate NBA regular season slate (if you want to impress someone, use the word “penultimate” later today. Contrary to popular belief, it does not mean “the ultimate pen”). A lot of the teams that are playing today have nothing left to play for, so it’s going to be tricky trying to identify what plays we want. Let’s dive in.

The Hornets have come to the point where they are out of the playoff hunt and it’s hard to trust any of them. In their last game, 10 guys played between 20-27 minutes. Dwight Howard still posted a double-double, and Marvin Williams did score 16 real-life points, but it’s going to be difficult for any starter to pay off their salary if they aren’t going to see more than 20-27 minutes. For this reason alone, I’m going to limit my exposure to just the bench players of Malik Monk and Guillermo Hernangomez. Monk is $5,200 on FanDuel but $5,800 on DraftKings, and since DraftKings uses a smaller salary cap, you’re really paying a premium for him over there. My preference is to get exposure to Monk on FanDuel. I will point out this is the Hornets’ last game so just keep an eye out on whether we get any tips that the second unit will see a ton of run.

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 108.1 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (5 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -2.1 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.4 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – Guillermo Hernangomez, Malik Monk (FD)

Secondary Plays – Malik Monk (DK)

Indiana Pacers

Update 3:14pm EST – Victor Oladipo, Thaddeus Young, and Bojan Bogdanovic have been ruled OUT. I’m going to now assume Lance Stephenson, Trevor Booker and Domantas Sabonis get some extra run. I’ll put Stephenson and Sabonis as elite plays and Booker as a secondary play, but keep an eye out on the starting lineup.

Notable Injuries

None

The Pacers are locked into 5th seed and have nothing to play for in their season finale. Beat writer Scott Agness says the same thing here and suggests Coach McMillan will likely rest players to ensure their players are healthy for the playoffs.

I’ll be honest, I have no idea who starts on Tuesday or who plays the most minutes, but I’m pretty much off the starters. The best thing we can do is figure out their current depth chart, eliminate the starters with the assumption they either won’t play at all or will play sparingly, and then target some of the bench players. Let’s look at their depth chart:

PG: Darren Collison, Cory Joseph, Joe Young
SG: Victor Oladipo, Lance Stephenson, Edmond Sumner?
SF: Bojan Bogdanovic, Glenn Robinson, Ben Moore?
PF: Thaddeus Young, Trevor Booker, T.J. Leaf, Alex Poythress
C: Myles Turner, Domantas Sabonis, Al Jefferson, Ike Anigbogu

I have no idea if the two-way players of Edmond Sumner and Ben Moore are with the team, but I do know per this tweet by Agness that their season in the G-League has ended. Depending on their availability and whether they are with the Pacers today, we might be working with 10-12 players, which in a way is a full team anyway. I would be surprised if guys like Cory Joseph, Lance Stephenson, or Trevor Booker saw heavy run since they are vital to the second unit. I’d also be surprised if Al Jefferson got a ton of run since he’s a veteran they don’t need to run into the ground. Domantas Sabonis is real interesting considering he just dropped 49.5 DraftKings points against this Hornets team the other night.

I’m going to reserve listing any Elite and Secondary plays until we have more info, but for now I’m just focused on the bench players.

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 105.7 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.5 (2 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 5.8 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.1 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.7 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.6 (8 of 30)

Elite Plays – Lance Stephenson, Domantas Sabonis

Secondary Plays – Trevor Booker

Philadelphia 76ers at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers							Atlanta Hawks
			Vegas Total		219.0					Vegas Total		219.0
			Vegas Spread		-9.5					Vegas Spread		9.5
			Implied Team Total		114.3					Implied Team Total		104.8
			Pace Projection +/-		1.0					Pace Projection +/-		2.5
Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	J.J. Redick	Robert Covington	Dario Saric	Amir Johnson		Projected Starters	Damion Lee	DeAndre Bembry	Taurean Prince	John Collins	Dewayne Dedmon
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	30	24	30	26	29		DvP	14	16	19	9	15
DRPM Rat.	10	N/A	27	19	13		DRPM Rat.	1	26	1	25	4

Philadelphia 76ers

Update 3:55pm EST – Ben Simmons is now expected to play. That makes less interest in Fultz and McConnell.

Notable Injuries

Joel Embiid (Out), Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (Out)

The 76ers sit 0.5 a game up on the Cavs in the East for the 3rd seed with two games to go. If the 76ers lose the next two games and the Cavs win their final game on Wednesday, the Cavs hold the tie-breaker and will move into the 3rd seed. Per this article here by beat writer Keith Pompey, Coach Brown wants these next two wins and the 3rd seed. The article has some interesting tidbits in how the 76ers beat the Hawks earlier this season and took it easy on them because Coach Brown is friends with Coach Budenholzer, but at the same time these Hawks have been playing well lately so maybe this game is more competitive than we expect.

On a slate where very few of these games actually matter, I think it’s fair to make a case to play Ben Simmons even at his crazy price tag, as well as some (or many) of these 76ers. If somehow this game stays competitive, you know you’ll be seeing the best of the 76ers, and that’s probably worth more than the best of T.J. Leaf or Joe Young (I just jinxed myself, now T.J. Leaf is going to have a career game). I think there’s merit to a game stack here and bringing it back around with Taurean Prince or Dewayne Dedmon, in case they are able to keep the Hawks in the game.

It’s the usual suspects for me: Ben Simmons, Robert Covington, J.J. Redick and Dario Saric. I do worry about Saric’s recent performance and whether he’s playing hurt still. Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova have also been fantastic off the bench and deserve consideration on this slate. This is also the revenge game for both of them, and earlier, Ilyasova dropped 49.5 DraftKings points on the Hawks off the bench. Maybe he can do it again?

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 109.4 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.3 (1 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 4.8 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.7 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.1 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.2 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.5 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – Robert Covington, Ersan Ilyasova, J.J. Redick, Ben Simmons

Secondary Plays – Marco Belinelli, Markelle Fultz, Dario Saric

Atlanta Hawks

Notable Injuries

Kent Bazemore (Out), Dennis Schroder (Out)

The Hawks are coming off a win against the Celtics and are doing a nice job of finishing the year strong. Taurean Prince is the clear leader of the team with all the injuries, and he just dropped 51.1 FanDuel points on the Celtics. He’s an elite play and would be included in any game stack I put together. If this game does get out of hand it’s possible he does get benched in favor of someone like Tyler Dorsey, so just be careful with your exposure to him.

Both Dewayne Dedmon and John Collins continue to play well down the stretch and are worth consideration too. I prefer Collins slightly between the two. It’s also worth noting that Isaiah Taylor was replaced as a starter in their last game in favor of Damion Lee so the team could see how he and Deandre Bembry looked alongside each other. Lee has been playing great too and is still decently affordable.

Atlanta Hawks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.2 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (6 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 1.6 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.2 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.0 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.0 (4 of 30)

Elite Plays – Taurean Prince

Secondary Plays – John Collins, Dewayne Dedmon, Damion Lee

Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards – 8:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics							Washington Wizards
			Vegas Total		206.0					Vegas Total		206.0
			Vegas Spread		6.5					Vegas Spread		-6.5
			Implied Team Total		99.8					Implied Team Total		106.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.7					Pace Projection +/-		-1.4
Projected Starters	Terry Rozier	Jaylen Brown	Jayson Tatum	Al Horford	Aron Baynes		Projected Starters	John Wall	Bradley Beal	Otto Porter	Markieff Morris	Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	11	15	20	5	8		DvP	2	5	12	2	3
DRPM Rat.	12	14	2	20	9		DRPM Rat.	4	2	4	1	1

Boston Celtics

Update 12:03am EST – No Celtics will be rested and according to Gary Washburn here, he said the starters will play a “good amount of minutes.” Jay King suggests here that maybe some starters rest tomorrow. I’m not going to bump up the starters from secondary plays to elite plays because I don’t know what “good amount” really means, but you could make a case to play some or several of them in a stack and hope they see enough minutes to hit value. I would recommend following both King and Washburn to see if they have any more information, but this news makes me more interested in the Celtics now.

This is also a Marcus vs Markieff Morris siblings narrative game. To make things even more interesting, today is National Siblings Day. NARRATIVE ALERT!

Guerschon Yabusele is out.

Notable Injuries

Kyrie Irving (Out), Marcus Smart (Out)

The Celtics are locked into the #2 seed in the East and have nothing to play for. This is also the front end of a back-to-back for them, so it’ll be interesting to see if they play hard here and rest on Wednesday, or do the opposite. In their last game, the starters played between 23-29 minutes, while four bench players played between 21-27 minutes. Maybe we see something similar today where everyone gets a little run but nobody gets overworked. Just keep an eye out on whether there are rest candidates.

You can still make a case that if the starters get 23-29 minutes, they could put up decent stat lines. For that reason, I’m not going to write them off and will consider Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Al Horford and Terry Rozier as secondary plays. I’m not going out of my way roster them but if one of them fits my lineup and I know they are starting, I would be fine with it. Greg Monroe is probably the main bench player I would be comfortable rostering given his ability to fill up the stat sheet in a hurry. Bench guys like Jabari Bird, Shane Larkin and Semi Ojeleye have also been getting decent run but I don’t think I’m chasing them if they are going to just split time with the starters.

Boston Celtics Offense

Points Per Game: 104.0 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.8 (8 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -4.3 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.2 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (18 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, Greg Monroe, Jayson Tatum, Terry Rozier

Washington Wizards

Update 11:13am EST – Ian Mahinmi is now questionable.

Notable Injuries

Ian Mahinmi (Out), John Wall (Will play)

The Wizards are another team who should be playing hard and have incentive to try and win. While they are guaranteed a playoff spot, they currently sit 8th in the East and could move up to 7th and face these banged up Celtics in the playoffs. John Wall is expected back after resting last game, which would shift Tomas Satoransky to the bench. I don’t like playing guys against the Celtics’ defense and Wall is expensive, but he played 38 minutes in his last game and it’s almost as if the sites knew to price him up in a matchup he’s trying to win for playoff positioning and to get conditioned for the postseason. Wall is right up there in terms of my favorite plays on this slate.

Bradley Beal, Otto Porter and Markieff Morris are also solid plays. You’re not really getting a discount on any of them considering Wall is back, so you’re pretty much paying full price. Because of that, I’m viewing them more as secondary plays even though they should be motivated.

I can’t get myself to play Marcin Gortat at this point of the season. Sometimes the Wizards will go small and play Markieff Morris at the five, so his minutes are never secure. I’d rather take a shot on Kelly Oubre first than on Gortat since Oubre would benefit from a game that goes small.

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 106.7 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.3 (4 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.3 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.5 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.1 (24 of 30)

Elite Plays – John Wall

Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris, Kelly Oubre (GPP), Otto Porter

Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET

Phoenix Suns							Dallas Mavericks
			Vegas Total							Vegas Total
			Vegas Spread							Vegas Spread
			Implied Team Total							Implied Team Total
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.9					Pace Projection +/-		3.2
Projected Starters	Tyler Ulis	Troy Daniels	Josh Jackson	Dragan Bender	Marquese Chriss		Projected Starters	Dennis Smith	Aaron Harrison	Dorian Finney-Smith	Johnathan Motley	Dwight Powell
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	22	10	6	20	14		DvP	28	30	23	30	25
DRPM Rat.	28	N/A	6	8	8		DRPM Rat.	23	30	25	27	15

Phoenix Suns

Notable Injuries

Update 4:04pm EST – Josh Jackson, Devin Booker, Elfrid Payton and Alan Williams have been ruled out. Marquese Chriss is now looking doubtful.

Troy Daniels and T.J. Warren have now been ruled out. I’m going to list Tyler Ulis, Danuel House, Shaq Harrison, Dragan Bender and Alex Len as elite plays, . The Suns are really thin on players right now and only have 8 players: Ulis, Harrison, House, Bender, Len, Reed, Peters and Dudley.

Devin Booker (Questionable), Marquese Chriss (Questionable), Troy Daniels (Questionable), Josh Jackson (Questionable), Efrid Payton (Questionable), T.J. Warren (Questionable), Alan Williams (Questionable)

The Suns are a mess right now in terms of injuries. Per this tweet here by beat writer Scott Bordow, he says:

I’ll make this quick: Pretty much every player on the Suns’ roster listed as questionable for Tuesday’s season finale.

I’m going to hold off on an analysis until we have clarity on the situation.

Phoenix Suns Offense

Points Per Game: 103.7 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 8)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.6 (27 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dragan Bender, Tyler Ulis, Danuel House, Alex Len, Shaq Harrison

Secondary Plays – Whoever is left on this team.

Dallas Mavericks

Notable Injuries

Harrison Barnes (Out), Doug McDermott (Questionable), Salah Mejri (Out), Dennis Smith Jr. (Questionable)

This is the Mavericks’ final game, and we know Harrison Barnes and Salah Mejri will not play. Meanwhile, Dennis Smith Jr. and Doug McDermott are questionable. I honestly have no idea how the Mavericks play this finale. Johnathan Motley only saw 16 minutes after playing 40 and 41 minutes in his previous two games, so it makes no sense why he suddenly saw his playing time chopped in half. Maxi Kleber posted a double-double and benefited from Motley’s reduction.

If we hear Dennis Smith Jr. is playing, I don’t think he’s a bad GPP flyer. He played 40 minutes in his last start but I also see no reason for them to put his health at risk given he’s dealing with knee soreness.

I do think Dwight Powell deserves some consideration given the team lacks bigs. And with recency bias against Motley, I also don’t think he’s a bad GPP play after his 16 minute outing as I doubt many will take the chance on him again.

Dallas Mavericks Offense

Points Per Game: 102.4 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 8)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns

Points Allowed Per Game: 113.5 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.7 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.7 (1 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Johnathan Motley (GPP), Dwight Powell, Dennis Smith Jr.

Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz – 9:00 PM ET

Golden State Warriors							Utah Jazz
			Vegas Total		212.5					Vegas Total		212.5
			Vegas Spread		6.5					Vegas Spread		-6.5
			Implied Team Total		103.0					Implied Team Total		109.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.8					Pace Projection +/-		2.4
Projected Starters	Quinn Cook	Klay Thompson	Kevin Durant	Draymond Green	Zaza Pachulia		Projected Starters	Ricky Rubio	Donovan Mitchell	Joe Ingles	Derrick Favors	Rudy Gobert
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	10	1	4	3	9		DvP	13	23	11	25	7
DRPM Rat.	3	6	7	12	1		DRPM Rat.	22	9	23	2	5

Golden State Warriors

Notable Injuries

Andre Iguodala (Out), Damian Jones (Probable)

This is the Warriors’ finale and they are locked into the #2 seed in the West, so they have nothing to play for. Meanwhile, the Jazz are playing for something and already boast an elite defense. I did check the Warriors’ box score in last year’s finale (it’s here) and found it interesting that Curry, Durant and Thompson all played minutes in the mid 20s, while the rest of the minutes were spread out. I could see them doing something similar here where maybe the starters get some run, but not enough to pay off their salaries. I’m kind of treating the Warriors the same as the Celtics, where I’m okay with using their starters as secondary pieces for their floors but I don’t know if they can reach their ceilings in limited minutes.

There’s nobody on the bench I really want to chase either. Kevon Looney has been starting and is still cheap, but he may be up against Rudy Gobert defense.

Golden State Warriors Offense

Points Per Game: 113.9 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.0 (7 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -10.9 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Utah Jazz

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.9 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.4 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.7 (26 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson

Utah Jazz

Notable Injuries

None

The Jazz are currently 4th in the West but have two games to go and could potentially drop down further, so I assume they will play this game hard. They also can still catch the 3rd seeded Trail Blazers.

The Jazz tend to give their starters heavy run, so they would be my main targets here. Rudy Gobert, Joe Ingles and Donovan Mitchell are my primary targets, while Derrick Favors profiles more as a secondary target since I question his upside on this team. Ricky Rubio is battling a hamstring issue and played through it on Sunday, but he only played 18 minutes against the Lakers. Granted, the Jazz were up 16 entering the 4th quarter so he wasn’t heavily needed, but I think I would limit him to GPPs in case they don’t give him his full allotment of minutes. Royce O’Neale would benefit if Rubio is declared limited or inactive.

The only bench player I have interest in is Jae Crowder, who took 18 shots off the bench in their last game. He’s cheap enough to consider if you need a punt.

Utah Jazz Offense

Points Per Game: 104.1 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (3 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 5.4 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.3 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.2 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.9 (5 of 30)

Elite Plays – Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell

Secondary Plays – Jae Crowder, Derrick Favors, Joe Ingles, Ricky Rubio (GPP)

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