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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, April 12th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-04-13 02:01:24

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM

New York Knicks Indiana Pacers
newyorknba Vegas Total 197.5 indiananba Vegas Total 197.5
Vegas Sprd 11.0 Vegas Sprd -11.0
Team Proj. 93.3 Team Proj. 104.3
Team Pace 95.90 Team Pace 99.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jerian Grant Sasha Vujacic Arron Afflalo Derrick Williams Robin Lopez Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Lavoy Allen Ian Mahinmi
Opp. Season 9 11 5 8 16 Opp. Season 19 15 9 5 13
Last 3 Weeks 8 18 3 3 15 Last 3 Weeks 18 10 24 7 1

New York Knicks

Record: 32-49 — Road: 14-26 — Last 10: 4-6

The Knicks are counting down the hours until the end of the season. Tonight will be the final game of a rather disappointing and tumultuous season. They are listed as 11-point underdogs tonight against the Pacers, who are still fighting for playoff positioning in the Eastern Conference. Kristaps Porzingis and Jose Calderon have already been ruled out of the finale and it sounds like Carmelo Anthony may be rested as well. While the matchup isn’t great, there are two nice value plays on the Knicks tonight.

Elite Plays

Jerian Grant
jerian-grant-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,200 Salary:$4,200
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.70 FP/Min:0.75
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 16.4 21.6 5.2 29.2 12.8
FPPG (FD) 11.5 15.5 4.0 23.6 12.1
TO-Adj. Usage 16.4 17.7 1.3 19.5 3.1

The Knicks are finally starting to give the young kid some extended action. In their game the other night against the Raptors, he finished with 28 fantasy points in 39 minutes of action. As it stands right now, I see him as an elite value play in this slate. That could all change in a hurry though, depending on what other value opens up throughout the day.

Secondary Plays

Derrick Williams
derrick-williams-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,700 Salary:$4,300
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.85 FP/Min:0.91
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 17.8 23.8 6.0 26.5 8.7
FPPG (FD) 15.2 18.4 3.3 20.9 5.7
TO-Adj. Usage 20.0 17.7 -2.3 18.4 -1.6

Williams is a borderline elite play tonight and if Carmelo Anthony is rested as planned, I’d probably bump him up. He has really played well filling in for Kristaps Porzingis, averaging 20.9 fantasy points over his last five games. His minutes have been up and down, but he could see north of 30 tonight if Anthony is ruled out.

Indiana Pacers

Record: 43-37 — Home: 25-15 — Last 10: 6-4

The Pacers are tied with the Pistons for the seven seed in the Eastern Conference. They have the tiebreaker over Detroit, so if they win out they will draw a first round matchup against the Raptors, which would be preferred over a matchup against the Cavaliers. In what is a fairly important game for Indiana, Paul George is expected to play. There were rumors that he would be rested for the final two games, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. The Pacers are 11-point favorites tonight with the third highest team total on the board at 104.3 points.

Elite Plays

Paul George
paul-george-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,300 Salary:$8,500
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.11 FP/Min:1.21
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.9 30.7 -4.2 28.8 -6.1
FPPG (FD) 38.9 35.9 -3.0 32.2 -6.7
TO-Adj. Usage 25.2 24.1 -1.1 23.5 -1.7

George says that he is going to play tonight and with the lack of superstar options in the slate, he immediately becomes one of the best players to pay up for. Even though he has been dealing with some injuries, it hasn’t affected his play on the floor. Over his last ten games, he is still averaging 35.9 fantasy points. Dollar for dollar, he isn’t the best play on the board, but we have to spend up somewhere in this strange slate.

Secondary Plays

NONE

Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM

Miami Heat Detroit Pistons
miaminba Vegas Total 201.0 detroitnba Vegas Total 201.0
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 99.5 Team Proj. 101.5
Team Pace 95.80 Team Pace 97.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Joe Johnson Luol Deng Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Tobias Harris Marcus Morris Andre Drummond
Opp. Season 12 6 3 13 14 Opp. Season 2 5 14 4 8
Last 3 Weeks 25 3 4 14 23 Last 3 Weeks 7 24 2 4 22

Miami Heat

Record: 47-33 — Road: 19-20 — Last 10: 6-4

The Heat can secure homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs by winning their last two games. They still have a lot to play for, as do the Pistons. This game features two stout defenses, but it is expected to stay close throughout and it’s one of the only games where we can accurately predict the rotations. The Heat are projected to score 99.5 points tonight, which gives them the sixth highest team total and the sixth highest projected point differential.

Elite Plays

Hassan Whiteside
hassan-whiteside-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,500 Salary:$8,700
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.23 FP/Min:1.32
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.1 30.5 1.4 28.2 -0.9
FPPG (FD) 35.8 40.4 4.6 39.4 3.6
TO-Adj. Usage 16.0 18.7 2.7 20.9 4.9

Whiteside should be the chalk tonight. With Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook possibly being rested or limited, he is the safest expensive target in this slate. Not only has he been in good form, but the Heat announced that he is going to start for the rest of the season, including the playoffs. Being in the starting lineup doesn’t change his projection all that much, but we can feel a little more secure in him playing 30+ minutes.

Dwyane Wade
dwyane-wade-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,100 Salary:$6,300
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.09
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.5 29.1 -1.4 28.2 -2.3
FPPG (FD) 31.7 32.1 0.4 27.2 -4.5
TO-Adj. Usage 26.9 25.2 -1.6 24.8 -2.1

When it comes to Wade, I’m less concerned about the matchup and more concerned about the spread and the importance of the game. With the Heat needing a win and the spread set at two points, Wade should see a full complement of minutes. His price is reasonable across the industry and he is one of the few mid-to-expensive players that we can count on to play 30+ minutes.

Secondary Plays

Goran Dragic
goran-dragic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,800 Salary:$6,700
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.83 FP/Min:0.89
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.9 32.6 -0.3 32.9 0.0
FPPG (FD) 27.3 28.6 1.3 31.3 3.9
TO-Adj. Usage 18.8 20.8 2.0 21.4 2.6

Dragic is a strong play in all league formats tonight, but I’m not sure that I will end up targeting him. I have Hassan Whiteside and Dwyane Wade locked into my lineups and I’m not sure that I want to invest that much salary into a team facing the Pistons. That said, Dragic has been in great form coming into this game, averaging 31.3 fantasy points over his last five outings.

Detroit Pistons

Record: 43-37 — Home: 26-14 — Last 10: 7-3

The Pistons have secured their spot in the playoffs, but still have a lot to play for in the final two games. If they can pass the Pacers in the standings, they would avoid a first round matchup with the Cavaliers. The Pistons are 2-point favorites tonight against the Heat. Even though the matchup doesn’t look great on paper, Detroit has the fifth highest team total at 101.5 points. More importantly, we can project all five starters to play minutes in the 30s and secure minutes should be treated like gold tonight.

Elite Plays

Reggie Jackson
reggie-jackson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,400 Salary:$6,400
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.09
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.7 30.9 0.2 32.5 1.8
FPPG (FD) 30.7 29.6 -1.2 35.0 4.2
TO-Adj. Usage 25.7 26.2 0.4 28.6 2.9

Jackson had his best game of the season and arguably of his career the other night against the Wizards. He finished with 39 actual points and 52 fantasy points. He has now played at least 32 minutes in four of his last five games. It looks like they are finally loosening his reigns a bit and this is the perfect time to start using him in DFS, as his price will likely go up sooner rather than later.

Secondary Plays

Andre Drummond
andre-drummond-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,700 Salary:$7,400
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.19 FP/Min:1.28
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.9 31.5 -1.4 30.4 -2.5
FPPG (FD) 39.3 36.4 -2.9 32.0 -7.2
TO-Adj. Usage 20.3 19.7 -0.6 20.3 0.0

Drummond plays a lot better in games that are played at a slower pace. That should be the case tonight against the Heat, as both teams play below the league average in terms of pace. On sites that only allow you to use one center, it makes sense to pay up for Hassan Whiteside. However, Drummond makes a nice GPP pivot and I don’t mind using a two-center approach on sites that feature a utility spot.

Tobias Harris
tobias-harris-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,600 Salary:$5,800
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.83 FP/Min:0.89
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.0 34.1 1.1 34.9 1.9
FPPG (FD) 27.4 30.3 2.9 30.1 2.7
TO-Adj. Usage 16.7 17.8 1.1 16.2 -0.5

Harris is one of the safest plays on the board tonight. If you mapped out his possible range of outcomes, it would be a smaller range than most. He should play around 35 minutes and he should score somewhere between 25-35 fantasy points. The matchup against the Heat isn’t great, but he offers safety at SF/PF.

Marcus Morris
marcus-morris-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,700 Salary:$5,100
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.68 FP/Min:0.74
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.7 36.5 0.8 35.7 0.0
FPPG (FD) 24.4 29.0 4.7 27.9 3.5
TO-Adj. Usage 15.9 15.1 -0.8 14.7 -1.2

Morris is a bit more volatile than Tobias Harris, but he is in the same boat. He should see around 35 minutes of action and he should be able to put up 22-32 fantasy points in an important game for the Pistons.

Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM

Philadelphia 76ers Toronto Raptors
philadelphianba Vegas Total 204.0 torontonba Vegas Total 204.0
Vegas Sprd 10.5 Vegas Sprd -10.5
Team Proj. 96.8 Team Proj. 107.3
Team Pace 100.30 Team Pace 95.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ishmael Smith Nik Stauskas Robert Covington Jerami Grant Nerlens Noel Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Norman Powell Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas
Opp. Season 3 16 7 6 7 Opp. Season 28 20 29 28 30
Last 3 Weeks 4 26 25 19 2 Last 3 Weeks 22 19 28 17 26

Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 10-70 — Road: 3-36 — Last 10: 1-9

The Sixers are playing extremely short-handed down the stretch of the regular season. For a while there, it was tough for any Sixers’ starter to crack 30 minutes, but all five played at least 31 minutes in regulation the other night against the Bucks. Even though the Sixers are sizable underdogs and have a low team total, there are some nice plays here. With all of the injuries to the team, they have no reason not to give their starters a full complement of minutes, even if the game gets out of hand.

Elite Plays

Nerlens Noel
nerlens-noel-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,800 Salary:$6,200
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.95 FP/Min:1.01
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.2 29.5 0.3 31.1 1.9
FPPG (FD) 27.6 27.8 0.2 30.7 3.1
TO-Adj. Usage 14.4 14.5 0.1 15.0 0.6

I usually don’t like to target bigs against the Raptors, but Noel is one of my favorite plays on the board tonight. With all of the injuries to the Sixers, he played 43 minutes the other night against the Bucks. Yes, five of those were in overtime, but that is still 38 minutes in regulation. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he should see a similar allotment tonight.

Jerami Grant
jerami-grant-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,200 Salary:$4,800
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.79 FP/Min:0.84
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.8 28.3 1.5 31.3 4.5
FPPG (FD) 21.1 23.4 2.3 27.6 6.5
TO-Adj. Usage 14.8 19.1 4.3 19.9 5.1

Grant also played over 40 minutes the other night against the Bucks. Even if he only sees 30 minutes tonight, he will have a good chance at reaching value at his price point. He isn’t the most talented offensive player, but he can fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He is a borderline elite play on FanDuel ($5,100) and an elite play on DraftKings ($4,800).

Secondary Plays

Ishmael Smith
ish-smith-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,700 Salary:$6,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.95 FP/Min:1.03
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.9 34.6 5.7 34.9 6.0
FPPG (FD) 27.6 32.0 4.5 29.7 2.1
TO-Adj. Usage 21.3 18.0 -3.3 17.2 -4.2

Smith comes into this game in solid form, averaging 30.7 fantasy points over his last five outings. He should see a nice minute boost with Isaiah Canaan out and I wouldn’t be surprised if he saw 35 minutes in this one. The matchup against the Raptors may not look great on paper, but he would see a small boost if the Raptors decide to rest Kyle Lowry.

Toronto Raptors

Record: 54-26 — Home: 31-9 — Last 10: 6-4

It will be interesting to see what the Raptors decide to do tonight. With Cleveland’s win last night, the Raptors are now stuck in the two seed, regardless of what happens in their next two games. They have been resting starters over the last couple of weeks and we shouldn’t be surprised if they do that again tonight. The real question is what we should do if only one of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry is rested. That would obviously be a boost to the other player, but how many minutes can we realistically expect from them? My plan is to avoid the Raptors tonight unless both DeRozan and Lowry sit out. In that case, Cory Joseph and Norman Powell would both become elite value plays. Jonas Valanciunas would also make a nice tournament play.

Elite / Secondary Plays – TBD

DeMar DeRozan
demar-derozan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,900 Salary:$7,200
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.03
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.1 34.9 -1.2 34.9 -1.2
FPPG (FD) 35.3 36.2 0.9 35.8 0.5
TO-Adj. Usage 26.1 25.5 -0.6 28.4 2.3
Kyle Lowry
kyle-lowry-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,700 Salary:$6,900
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.13
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.2 36.1 -1.1 35.3 -1.9
FPPG (FD) 38.9 30.1 -8.7 31.4 -7.5
TO-Adj. Usage 22.8 23.6 0.8 22.0 -0.8
Jonas Valanciunas
jonas-valanciunas-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,900 Salary:$4,900
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.02 FP/Min:1.09
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.1 27.8 1.7 25.6 -0.5
FPPG (FD) 26.7 30.1 3.4 24.5 -2.2
TO-Adj. Usage 16.7 16.8 0.1 16.3 -0.4
Norman Powell
norman-powell-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,200 Salary:$3,900
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.69 FP/Min:0.74
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 13.8 30.4 16.6 29.6 15.8
FPPG (FD) 9.5 22.0 12.6 19.6 10.2
TO-Adj. Usage 15.0 14.8 -0.2 15.2 0.1
Cory Joseph
cory-joseph-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,800 Salary:$3,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.67 FP/Min:0.70
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.7 24.5 -1.2 25.6 -0.1
FPPG (FD) 17.2 16.7 -0.5 20.2 3.1
TO-Adj. Usage 14.9 15.2 0.3 15.6 0.7

Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs – 8:00 PM

Oklahoma City Thunder San Antonio Spurs
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 204.5 sanantonionba Vegas Total 204.5
Vegas Sprd 9.5 Vegas Sprd -9.5
Team Proj. 97.5 Team Proj. 107.0
Team Pace 99.40 Team Pace 95.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan
Opp. Season 5 1 1 3 3 Opp. Season 18 23 11 7 4
Last 3 Weeks 15 14 10 2 4 Last 3 Weeks 6 29 19 5 8

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 54-26 — Road: 23-17 — Last 10: 6-4

Ugh. This has to be the ugliest slate of the season and that includes the awful two-game Thursday slates that we have had to battle through. The Thunder and Spurs are both locked into their playoff seeding and if all goes as planned, will meet up in the second round. The Thunder are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, they don’t gain anything from playing their starters, and they may not want to play their hand, as they will likely be facing the Spurs in the playoffs. I hope that we get an update on what their plans are for tonight. If everyone is active, I will be avoiding the Thunder altogether. If the Thunder rest their big three (Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, and Serge Ibaka), you could look at Enes Kanter and Dion Waiters.

Elite / Secondary Plays – TBD

Enes Kanter
enes-kanter-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,600 Salary:$5,400
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.11 FP/Min:1.19
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 20.8 22.1 1.3 22.5 1.7
FPPG (FD) 23.0 27.8 4.8 30.0 7.0
TO-Adj. Usage 19.5 20.2 0.8 21.9 2.5
Dion Waiters
dion-waiters-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,900 Salary:$3,600
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.60 FP/Min:0.66
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.5 26.0 -1.5 25.3 -2.2
FPPG (FD) 16.5 19.6 3.2 19.8 3.4
TO-Adj. Usage 14.9 16.1 1.2 16.3 1.4

San Antonio Spurs

Record: 65-15 — Home: 39-1 — Last 10: 6-4

The Spurs are even less predictable than the Thunder tonight. While they aren’t playing in the second half of a back-to-back, Popovich has a long track record of resting players in games that don’t have any meaning. With these two teams potentially squaring off in the playoffs, I have a hard time seeing Popovich playing his starters many minutes, if any at all. This is a game that I am just going to pretend is not even on the schedule tonight. There are too many question marks surrounding both teams.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:30 PM

Memphis Grizzlies Los Angeles Clippers
memphisnba Vegas Total 197.5 laclippersnba Vegas Total 197.5
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 94.8 Team Proj. 102.8
Team Pace 95.60 Team Pace 97.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jordan Farmar Vince Carter Lance Stephenson Matt Barnes Zach Randolph Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan
Opp. Season 6 3 10 11 15 Opp. Season 11 4 13 15 5
Last 3 Weeks 11 1 11 20 3 Last 3 Weeks 9 12 6 30 12

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 42-38 — Road: 16-23 — Last 10: 2-8

The current Grizzlies’ roster is not playoff-caliber, but thanks to a strong start to the season, they are going to make the postseason. They continue to fall in the standings though. They are still fighting for playoff positioning, but I’m not sure they really care who they face in the first round. After all of the injuries this season, they will likely just try to avoid injuring any more of their players. The Grizzlies are 8-point underdogs tonight and they have the second lowest team total on the board.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Zach Randolph
zach-randolph-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$6,700
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.94 FP/Min:0.99
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.8 32.0 2.2 30.9 1.1
FPPG (FD) 28.0 32.0 4.0 29.7 1.6
TO-Adj. Usage 21.1 26.4 5.3 27.9 6.8

If you think that the Grizzlies can keep this game close, you can feel confident in Randolph playing 30+ minutes and having a usage rate north of 25. He has a great track record against the Clippers and his price is more than reasonable across the industry. I’m just not confident in the Grizzlies’ ability to keep this game within striking distance. For that reason, I see him as more of a secondary play.

Lance Stephenson
lance-stephenson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,500 Salary:$4,300
Position:SG Position:SF
FP/Min:0.76 FP/Min:0.81
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 19.6 25.8 6.2 28.6 9.0
FPPG (FD) 14.8 19.3 4.5 20.5 5.7
TO-Adj. Usage 16.8 20.9 4.1 20.0 3.2

Stephenson is one of my favorite tournament plays tonight, especially if he draws another start. While he didn’t do a whole the other night against the Warriors, he played 38 minutes and took 13 shots. If he can repeat that tonight, he provides massive upside. He also has a little added motivation facing the team that just traded him.

Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 52-28 — Home: 28-12 — Last 10: 9-1

The Clippers are locked into the four seed in the Eastern Conference, but it sounds like they will play their starters tonight – how many minutes we don’t know. It’s strange that they would play their starters tonight, because if they let the Grizzlies win, they could potentially help them get up to the five seed and then face them in the first round. Anyway, the Clippers want to get their starting unit playing well together and we saw Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan all play 30+ minutes the other night against the Mavericks.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Chris Paul
chris-paul-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,200 Salary:$8,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.26 FP/Min:1.36
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.8 28.6 -4.2 28.9 -3.9
FPPG (FD) 41.5 41.5 0.0 39.9 -1.6
TO-Adj. Usage 24.9 26.7 1.9 24.9 0.1

As long as the Clippers’ starters are active, I am going to pencil them in for a minute projection of around 30. They want to get their chemistry in tact before the playoffs start and we saw them all play 30+ minutes the other night against the Mavericks. I don’t expect Paul to reach value here, but we may not need him to given the lack of options to pay up for. I would gladly take 35 fantasy points from him.

Blake Griffin
blake-griffin-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,700 Salary:$7,100
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.16 FP/Min:1.23
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.7 24.9 -8.8 24.9 -8.8
FPPG (FD) 39.1 24.2 -14.9 24.2 -14.9
TO-Adj. Usage 25.5 20.7 -4.8 20.7 -4.8

Griffin is a borderline elite play. If I knew that he would play 30+ minutes, I would target him in all league formats. He is coming off of his best game since coming back from injury and the Clippers (in theory) want him to be in shape for the playoffs. I want to play him tonight in cash games, but Nerlens Noel seems like the safer option of the two.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious