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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, March 8th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-03-09 15:14:27

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM

Brooklyn Nets Toronto Raptors
brooklynnba Vegas Total 209.5 torontonba Vegas Total 209.5
Vegas Sprd 12.0 Vegas Sprd -12.0
Team Proj. 98.8 Team Proj. 110.8
Team Pace 96.90 Team Pace 95.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Donald Sloan Wayne Ellington Bojan Bogdanovic Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan James Johnson Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas
Opp. Season 3 15 4 3 15 Opp. Season 28 20 19 18 24
Last 3 Weeks 4 20 10 3 10 Last 3 Weeks 25 23 5 12 13

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 18-45 — Road: 7-23 — Last 10: 4-6

The Nets haven’t been playing their best basketball of the season, but they have won four of their last ten games. Tonight they head to Toronto to take on the Raptors in what is a difficult matchup for fantasy production. The Nets are only projected to score 98.8 points, which is the fourth lowest team total on the board tonight.

The Raptors’ defense is a major reason why they have been winning so many games recently. They are now ranked fifth in both points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game. With the spread set at 12 points, this game could easily turn into a rout. As I always mention, when there is a potential blowout, it’s better to target players on the favorite rather than the underdog. Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young are both expected to return to the lineup, after being rest on Saturday.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Brook Lopez
brook-lopez-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,400 Salary:$7,300
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.07 FP/Min:1.13
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.8 34.2 0.4 34.8 1.0
FPPG (FD) 36.0 39.2 3.2 36.7 0.6
TO-Adj. Usage 22.8 23.8 0.9 23.9 1.1

This is a slate where we just aren’t going to feel great about every single one of our picks. Lopez is a bit overpriced on FanDuel, but is still sitting at a very playable $7,300 on DraftKings. He draws a mediocre matchup tonight against the Raptors, but he should be well rested, as he hasn’t played since Friday.

Thaddeus Young
thaddeus-young-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$6,800
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.93 FP/Min:0.99
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.1 35.5 2.4 36.8 3.7
FPPG (FD) 30.7 32.9 2.1 33.5 2.7
TO-Adj. Usage 18.2 16.9 -1.2 18.0 -0.1

Young is a decent play tonight, but I consider him a secondary fantasy option at his position. Aaron Gordon, LaMarcus Aldridge, Derrick Favors, and Julius Randle are all in better spots, which makes Young more of a tournament play for me. He does come into the game in good form though, averaging 33.5 fantasy points in 36.8 minutes over his last five games.

Toronto Raptors

Record: 41-20 — Home: 23-7 — Last 10: 6-4

The Raptors have won six of their last ten games and are now 41-20 overall. They are 12-point favorites tonight, as they host the visiting Nets. The Raptors are projected to score 110.8 points, which is the highest team total on the board. Toronto also has the highest projected point differential at +8.1 points.

The Nets are always a favorable matchup for fantasy production, but they are also involved in a lot of blowouts. While the matchup appears great on paper, Brooklyn will need to keep the game within striking distance for the Raptors’ starters to see a full complement of minutes. The good news is that the Raptors are not playing in a back-to-back situation.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry
kyle-lowry-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,000 Salary:$8,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.07 FP/Min:1.16
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.0 38.7 1.7 39.5 2.5
FPPG (FD) 39.7 43.9 4.2 49.8 10.1
TO-Adj. Usage 22.6 22.6 0.1 23.8 1.3

Lowry has been on a tear recently, averaging 49.8 fantasy points over his last five games. He didn’t play very well against the Rockets on Sunday, yet he still managed to put up 38 fantasy points in 38 minutes. He draws a terrific matchup tonight against the Nets, who have allowed the third most fantasy points to point guards this season. The only knock on Lowry is that he could potentially end up sitting in the fourth quarter.

DeMar DeRozan
demar-derozan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,800 Salary:$7,700
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.97 FP/Min:1.02
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.0 35.6 -0.4 34.7 -1.3
FPPG (FD) 35.0 35.1 0.1 33.4 -1.6
TO-Adj. Usage 25.8 26.0 0.2 25.4 -0.5

DeRozan is also a strong play tonight against the Nets and if you think that the game will stay competitive, I don’t mind pairing him with his teammate, Kyle Lowry. DeRozan is always one of my favorite cash game plays because we know what to expect from him. He basically has a floor of around 30 fantasy points with a ceiling that is much higher.

Secondary Plays

Jonas Valanciunas
jonas-valanciunas-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,200 Salary:$5,300
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.03 FP/Min:1.08
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.2 26.1 -0.1 25.8 -0.4
FPPG (FD) 26.9 27.1 0.3 24.6 -2.3
TO-Adj. Usage 16.8 16.1 -0.6 13.7 -3.1

Big Val is not on my radar for cash games, but makes an intriguing tournament play at home. In 20 home games this season, he is averaging 13 points and ten rebounds. He may be asked to play a few extra minutes tonight, as he will be tasked with defending Brook Lopez. He also has a nice track record against Brooklyn, averaging 31 fantasy points per contest in their last six meetings.

San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM

San Antonio Spurs Minnesota Timberwolves
sanantonionba Vegas Total 207.0 minnesotanba Vegas Total 207.0
Vegas Sprd -10.5 Vegas Sprd 10.5
Team Proj. 108.8 Team Proj. 98.3
Team Pace 96.50 Team Pace 97.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns
Opp. Season 19 23 20 9 7 Opp. Season 4 1 1 4 4
Last 3 Weeks 13 29 30 13 3 Last 3 Weeks 7 7 1 10 4

San Antonio Spurs

Record: 53-10 — Road: 23-10 — Last 10: 8-2

The Spurs are coming off of a rare loss last night against the Pacers. They now have a quick turnaround tonight, although the Wolves are also playing in the tail end of a back-to-back. The Spurs are projected to score 108.8 points in this matchup, which is the third highest team total and 4.3 points above their scoring average.

The Wolves have been awful defensively this season, ranking 24th in points allowed per game and 27th in defensive efficiency. With an offense as high-powered as the Spurs, they should have no problem scoring points. The issue here is playing time. We all know how risky the Spurs are in back-to-back situations. Add in the fact that they are double-digit favorites and this could be the recipe for sitting and/or limiting players. Tony Parker is listed as questionable, after hurting his toe last night. Don’t be surprised if he is ruled out of tonight’s contest.

Elite Plays

Kawhi Leonard
kawhi-leonard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,600 Salary:$8,200
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.12 FP/Min:1.19
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.8 35.2 2.4 37.1 4.3
FPPG (FD) 36.8 45.4 8.5 46.9 10.1
TO-Adj. Usage 21.8 24.9 3.1 24.5 2.6

Leonard didn’t have the best game last night against the Pacers, but has otherwise been in great form. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 45.4 fantasy points in 35.2 minutes per contest. He is the one player on the Spurs that I usually feel pretty confident in when they are playing in the tail end of a back-to-back. Leonard is an elite play tonight, although I slightly prefer Carmelo Anthony if you can find the cap space.

Secondary Plays

LaMarcus Aldridge
lamarcus-aldridge-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,400 Salary:$6,800
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.03 FP/Min:1.08
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.1 32.8 2.7 34.1 4.0
FPPG (FD) 30.9 33.2 2.3 37.8 6.8
TO-Adj. Usage 21.6 21.3 -0.4 23.4 1.8

Aldridge just continues to go about his business, averaging 37.8 fantasy points over his last five games. He is coming off of a strong outing against the Pacers and this is a spot where the Spurs could potentially rest Tim Duncan. While I like the spot for Aldridge, there are a number of great plays at power forward tonight.

Patrick Mills
patty-mills-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,200 Salary:$4,000
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.78 FP/Min:0.85
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 20.5 23.0 2.5 21.2 0.7
FPPG (FD) 16.0 21.3 5.3 17.8 1.8
TO-Adj. Usage 17.1 18.1 1.1 15.1 -2.0

Mills is an interesting punt play tonight if Tony Parker is active. If Parker ends up being out, Mills will probably become one of the most popular value plays in the slate. He has been playing well coming into this game, averaging nearly a fantasy point per minute in his last ten outings. If Parker ends up being out, we can project him to play minutes in the high-20s.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Record: 20-44 — Home: 11-21 — Last 10: 3-7

The Wolves are also coming off of a loss last night, as they fell to the Hornets in Charlotte. Tonight they draw an even tougher matchup against the Spurs, who own the NBA’s best defense. The Wolves are only projected to score 98.3 points, which is one of the lowest team totals on the board. It is also 3.3 points below their scoring average.

The Spurs are a matchup that we try to avoid as often as possible in daily fantasy basketball. They are ranked first or second in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The usual suspects are all expected to miss tonight’s game. Until the news changes, we should just expect Nemanja Bjelica, Nikola Pekovic, and Kevin Garnett to sit out.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns
karl-anthony-towns-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,900 Salary:$7,900
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.14 FP/Min:1.23
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.8 34.7 3.9 32.2 1.4
FPPG (FD) 35.1 42.3 7.2 41.7 6.6
TO-Adj. Usage 20.1 22.7 2.6 21.5 1.4

Towns is too expensive on FanDuel to target against the Spurs, but DraftKings is trying to tempt us with a $7,900 price tag. I’m not going to be looking at him in cash games tonight, but he makes a strong tournament play on DraftKings. He has been on an absolute tear over his last ten games, averaging 42.3 fantasy points per contest. He would also see a small boost if Tim Duncan ends up getting the night off.

Zach LaVine
zach-lavine-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,500 Salary:$5,800
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.83 FP/Min:0.90
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.9 35.2 9.3 38.3 12.4
FPPG (FD) 21.6 26.5 4.9 29.6 8.1
TO-Adj. Usage 21.3 17.8 -3.5 18.4 -2.9

If you’ve read the Grind Down before, you know how much I hate targeting players against the Spurs. You also know how much I love targeting LaVine. He has been super consistent recently, scoring at least 22 fantasy points in nine of his last ten games. He has also been blowout-proof, as the Wolves have kept him in even when the game gets out of hand. The matchup against the Spurs is enough to bump him down to a secondary play, but LaVine still deserves a look tonight.

Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz – 9:00 PM

Atlanta Hawks Utah Jazz
atlantanba Vegas Total 192.0 utahnba Vegas Total 192.0
Vegas Sprd 1.5 Vegas Sprd -1.5
Team Proj. 95.3 Team Proj. 96.8
Team Pace 99.00 Team Pace 93.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj. Starter Shelvin Mack Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert
Opp. Season 9 5 2 2 2 Opp. Season 6 17 13 17 25
Last 3 Weeks 14 26 3 8 9 Last 3 Weeks 8 6 7 21 26

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 35-28 — Road: 16-16 — Last 10: 5-5

The Hawks have been treading water in their last ten games, posting a 5-5 record. They are still five games above .500, but they aren’t far from falling down the standings in the Eastern Conference. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the slow-paced Jazz. The Hawks are projected to score 95.3 points, which is the lowest team total on the board. Atlanta also has the lowest projected point differential at -7.2.

The Jazz are one of the top defensive teams in the NBA. They are ranked third in points allowed per game and second in fantasy points allowed per game. To make matters worse, they also play at the slowest pace of any team in the league. With such a low team total, the Hawks are an easy team to avoid tonight in all league formats.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Utah Jazz

Record: 29-33 — Home: 19-12 — Last 10: 3-7

The Jazz haven’t been playing their best basketball recently, losing seven of their last ten games. They will look to get back on track tonight, as they host the visiting Hawks. The Jazz are listed as 1.5-point favorites in a game that features the lowest total on the board. Utah is only projected to score 97.9 points, which is the second lowest team total on the board.

The Hawks have really picked up their play on the defensive end of the floor. They are now ranked sixth in points allowed per game and second in defensive efficiency. The one area where we can attack the Hawks is in the frontcourt. Atlanta has the second worst rebounding differential of any team in the NBA at -4.1.

Elite Plays

Rudy Gobert
rudy-gobert-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,900 Salary:$6,600
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.91 FP/Min:0.97
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.1 32.7 -0.4 33.1 0.0
FPPG (FD) 30.0 29.5 -0.5 34.7 4.7
TO-Adj. Usage 11.4 12.5 1.1 12.9 1.5

This is the perfect setup for the Stifle Tower. This should be played at a snail’s pace and Gobert should be able to dominate on the glass. He comes into tonight’s game in great form, averaging 34.7 fantasy points over his last five games. Assuming he can stay out of foul trouble, he should be a lock for double-digit rebounds in this matchup. He is one of the safest center plays on the board tonight.

Shelvin Mack
shelvin-mack-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,900 Salary:$4,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.81 FP/Min:0.87
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 12.6 25.2 12.6 28.0 15.4
FPPG (FD) 10.2 17.9 7.7 18.5 8.3
TO-Adj. Usage 21.8 18.4 -3.4 16.8 -4.9

Mack isn’t the bare-minimum salary on FanDuel anymore, but he still offers good value at $3,900. There aren’t many starting point guards in the NBA that are priced below $4,000. Mack may be a little fired up for tonight’s matchup against his former team. We always like to take a stroll down narrative street in DFS and Mack has that in his favor tonight.

Secondary Plays

Derrick Favors
derrick-favors-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,600 Salary:$7,500
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.01 FP/Min:1.07
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.6 33.4 0.8 33.8 1.2
FPPG (FD) 33.0 35.1 2.1 33.5 0.5
TO-Adj. Usage 20.4 21.1 0.7 21.3 0.9

I thought about listing Favors as an elite play here, but I couldn’t stomach the idea of three elite plays against a tough Hawks’ defense. For that reason, I’ll bump Favors down to a secondary option. The matchup is certainly in his favor though, as the Hawks are ranked 17th against power forwards this season.

Gordon Hayward
gordon-hayward-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,300 Salary:$6,800
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.88 FP/Min:0.95
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.2 36.9 0.7 37.1 0.9
FPPG (FD) 32.0 33.2 1.3 34.6 2.7
TO-Adj. Usage 22.2 22.5 0.3 24.5 2.3

Hayward is a little too cheap on DraftKings at only $6,800. Even with everyone back in the lineup for the Jazz, Hayward has actually seen his usage and fantasy production go up. He has been in good form over the last few weeks and small forward is an awfully thin position outside of Carmelo Anthony and Kawhi Leonard.

New York Knicks at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 PM

New York Knicks Denver Nuggets
newyorknba Vegas Total 205.5 denvernba Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Sprd 3.5 Vegas Sprd -3.5
Team Proj. 101.0 Team Proj. 104.5
Team Pace 95.90 Team Pace 98.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Jakarr Sampson Kenneth Faried Nikola Jokic
Opp. Season 22 27 14 25 20 Opp. Season 18 13 11 7 18
Last 3 Weeks 15 15 19 25 17 Last 3 Weeks 23 24 14 4 24

New York Knicks

Record: 26-38 — Road: 10-20 — Last 10: 3-7

The Knicks have lost seven of their last ten games and are now 10-20 on the road. Tonight they head to Denver to take on the Nuggets in the high altitude. The Knicks are listed as 3.5-point underdogs, but this will be a pace-up game for New York. The Knicks are projected to score 101 points, which is two points higher than their scoring average.

The Nuggets are always a favorable fantasy matchup, as they are ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The major question surrounding the Knicks is the availability of Kristaps Porzingis. He missed Saturday night’s game with a leg injury, but says that he plans to play tonight. For now, we will list him as questionable.

Elite Plays

Carmelo Anthony
carmelo-anthony-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,100 Salary:$8,400
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.08 FP/Min:1.14
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.3 38.2 2.9 38.6 3.3
FPPG (FD) 38.1 42.8 4.7 43.0 4.9
TO-Adj. Usage 25.6 26.5 0.9 27.4 1.7

Anthony returns to his old stomping grounds, where he spent the first eight years of his career. He is my favorite small forward target tonight, as he is the only one without a red flag. He comes into this game in good form, averaging 42.8 fantasy points in his last ten outings. He also draws a nice matchup against a Nuggets’ team that doesn’t defend any position particularly well.

Secondary Plays

Robin Lopez
robin-lopez-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,800 Salary:$5,800
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.84 FP/Min:0.89
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.2 29.8 3.6 30.1 3.9
FPPG (FD) 21.9 28.8 6.8 28.1 6.2
TO-Adj. Usage 14.1 14.6 0.5 14.4 0.3

I refuse to pay nearly $6,000 for a Lopez brother not-named Robin, but I have included him here because of his recent play. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 28.8 fantasy points in nearly 30 minutes per contest. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Nuggets, who are ranked 20th against centers. RoLo won’t be on any of my lineups tonight, but I’m not going to talk you off of him in this matchup.

Arron Afflalo
arron-afflalo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,000 Salary:$4,500
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.63 FP/Min:0.67
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.3 35.9 1.6 37.4 3.1
FPPG (FD) 21.8 21.3 -0.5 27.1 5.3
TO-Adj. Usage 16.0 12.3 -3.7 13.2 -2.8

Shooting guard isn’t the most stacked position tonight and Afflalo offers nice value at his price point. He has been playing heavy minutes recently, averaging 34.3 over his last five games. Like Carmelo Anthony, he also has a little revenge factor in his favor tonight against the Nuggets, who have struggled to contain shooting guards.

Denver Nuggets

Record: 25-38 — Home: 13-19 — Last 10: 4-6

The Nuggets have lost six of their last ten games and are now 25-38 overall. They have a good chance to pick up a win tonight at home, as they host the visiting Knicks. The Nuggets are projected to score 104.5 points, which is the sixth highest team total on the board. Denver also has the sixth highest projected point differential at +2.9.

The Knicks have been a mediocre matchup for fantasy production this season, ranking between 10th and 20th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. We shouldn’t give the Nuggets’ offense a boost in this matchup, but we shouldn’t discount it either. Danilo Gallinari remains out for Denver, which means extended minutes for Gary Harris, Will Barton, and Jakarr Sampson. Kenneth Faried and Nikola Jokic are both worth a look in tournaments tonight, but they are too inconsistent to target in cash games.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Emmanuel Mudiay
emmanuel-mudiay-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,000 Salary:$6,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.81 FP/Min:0.88
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.4 31.7 1.3 33.1 2.7
FPPG (FD) 24.6 27.9 3.3 31.9 7.3
TO-Adj. Usage 21.0 20.3 -0.7 21.4 0.3

Mudiay has been in great form recently, averaging 31.9 fantasy points in just over 33 minutes over his last five games. I’m always a little hesitant to use him in cash games, because he has such a competent backup in D.J. Augustin. The matchup is certainly in his favor though, as the Knicks have struggled to contain point guards.

Will Barton
will-barton-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,800 Salary:$5,900
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.94 FP/Min:1.01
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.9 30.1 1.2 33.0 4.1
FPPG (FD) 27.1 25.8 -1.3 24.6 -2.5
TO-Adj. Usage 20.6 21.7 1.2 21.2 0.6

Will the Thrill has been more ill than thrill recently. We all expected him to breakout once Danilo Gallinari went down with his injury. While he hasn’t lived up to expectations, he is coming off of a strong game against the Mavericks, scoring 30 fantasy points in 30 minutes. Hopefully that outing can jumpstart him and he can go on a nice run to end the season. I’m not losing faith in him just yet.

Gary Harris
gary-harris-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,000 Salary:$5,000
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.60 FP/Min:0.66
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.1 37.2 5.1 40.9 8.8
FPPG (FD) 19.3 23.9 4.6 25.3 6.0
TO-Adj. Usage 13.8 15.2 1.4 14.5 0.7

Harris is a priced a little higher than I’d like to see him at, but he is averaging over 40 minutes per game in his last five outings. You are basically getting a cheap shooting guard that should play 35 minutes at the very least. He isn’t the most productive player in a fantasy points per minute sense, but is a decent cash game option at his position.

D.J. Augustin
d.j.-augustin-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,000 Salary:$4,000
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.64 FP/Min:0.71
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 16.9 23.3 6.4 24.3 7.4
FPPG (FD) 10.8 19.9 9.1 23.2 12.4
TO-Adj. Usage 13.9 19.0 5.1 21.0 7.0

Dollar for dollar, I prefer Shelvin Mack and Patty Mills (if Tony Parker is out), but Augustin has been playing very well for the Nuggets. Over his last five games, he is averaging 23.2 fantasy points in 24.3 minutes per contest. He has shown nice upside for a player at his price point, which bring him into the conversation for GPPs.

Washington Wizards at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:00 PM

Washington Wizards Portland Trail Blazers
washingtonnba Vegas Total 213.5 portlandnba Vegas Total 213.5
Vegas Sprd 5.5 Vegas Sprd -5.5
Team Proj. 104.0 Team Proj. 109.5
Team Pace 100.30 Team Pace 97.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter John Wall Garrett Temple Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Noah Vonleh Mason Plumlee
Opp. Season 17 19 6 20 23 Opp. Season 16 22 27 6 12
Last 3 Weeks 20 21 8 20 21 Last 3 Weeks 16 5 17 2 20

Washington Wizards

Record: 30-32 — Road: 14-15 — Last 10: 6-4

The Wizards have won six of their last ten games and are now two games behind the eighth-seeded Chicago Bulls in the Eastern Conference. Tonight they head to Portland to take on the red-hot Blazers in a game that features a total of 213.5 points. The Wizards are projected to score 104 points, which is the seventh highest team total on the board.

The Blazers have played much better defense at home than they have on the road this season. Overall, they are ranked 17th in points allowed per game and 19th in defensive efficiency. We should consider this an average matchup for fantasy production. Bradley Beal and Gary Neal have both already been ruled out of tonight’s contest, which could mean more minutes for Garrett Temple and Otto Porter. Both players make decent value options at their respective positions, but neither stands out as a must start.

Elite Plays

John Wall
john-wall-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,600 Salary:$9,400
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.17 FP/Min:1.28
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.9 34.7 -1.2 35.3 -0.6
FPPG (FD) 42.2 42.6 0.4 44.5 2.3
TO-Adj. Usage 24.8 26.0 1.2 27.2 2.4

Wall has already been the go-to player in the Wizards’ offense and that will only be more prevalent while Bradley Beal is out. In 21 games without Beal in the lineup this season, Wall has a usage rate north of 30. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Blazers, who are ranked 17th against point guards this season. I have Wall ranked slightly ahead of his opponent, Damian Lillard, but don’t mind using both if you can make the salaries work.

Secondary Plays

Marcin Gortat
marcin-gortat-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$6,800
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.99 FP/Min:1.06
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.9 29.4 -1.5 30.2 -0.7
FPPG (FD) 30.5 32.3 1.8 33.4 2.9
TO-Adj. Usage 15.5 15.5 0.0 14.5 -1.0

Gortat continues to play well for the Wizards, averaging 33.4 fantasy points in 30.2 minutes in his last five games. He is a safe cash game play tonight against the Blazers, who are ranked 23rd against centers this season. Dollar for dollar, I slightly prefer Rudy Gobert, but we are splitting hairs. They are both in good spots tonight.

Markieff Morris
markieff-morris-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,100 Salary:$5,500
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.86 FP/Min:0.93
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 24.9 26.2 1.3 28.4 3.5
FPPG (FD) 21.3 22.0 0.7 24.0 2.7
TO-Adj. Usage 20.0 16.2 -3.8 14.4 -5.6

Morris has been inconsistent since joining the Wizards, but he has had a couple of big fantasy outings. With Bradley Beal out for the next little while, we could see him get a few more shots in this offense. This is also a good matchup for him, as both teams will have opportunities to push the pace and score in transition.

Portland Trail Blazers

Record: 33-31 — Home: 19-12 — Last 10: 6-4

The Blazers have won six of their last ten games and are now two above .500 overall. Tonight they host the Wizards in what is an important game for both teams. The Blazers are 5.5-point favorites with an implied team total of 109.5 points. Not only is that the second highest team total on the board, but it is also 5.9 points above their scoring average.

The Wizards have not fared well defensively this season, ranking at or below the league average in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Wizards are also a top five team in terms of pace of play, which is always a plus for opponents. The Blazers are in a great spot tonight, but it’s hard to trust anyone outside of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.

Elite Plays

Damian Lillard
damian-lillard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,200 Salary:$9,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.23
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.9 35.2 -0.7 35.2 -0.7
FPPG (FD) 40.4 43.8 3.4 40.6 0.2
TO-Adj. Usage 28.1 31.2 3.1 30.1 2.0

The Lillard vs. John Wall decision is going to be a tough one tonight. For GPP purposes, I am going to try to get both in the same lineup and hope that they both put on a show. While I slightly prefer Wall over Lillard in cash games, the difference is minimal. Lillard has been terrific over his last ten games, averaging 43.8 fantasy points per contest.

Secondary Plays

C.J. McCollum
c-j-mccollum-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,900 Salary:$7,200
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.92 FP/Min:0.99
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.0 35.1 0.1 35.5 0.5
FPPG (FD) 32.2 31.6 -0.5 29.9 -2.3
TO-Adj. Usage 23.8 23.0 -0.7 21.9 -1.9

McCollum is one of those players that I always have a hard time rostering. At his price point, I tend to go with players like DeMar DeRozan, Victor Oladipo, or Khris Middleton. McCollum should have a low ownership again tonight, even though his matchup against the Wizards is a great one. On the season, Washington is ranked 22nd against shooting guards.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious