NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, November 28th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET
| Miami Heat | Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209.0 |  | Vegas Total | 209.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 102.3 | Implied Team Total | 106.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Dion Waiters | Josh Richardson | Justise Winslow | Hassan Whiteside | Projected Starters | Jose Calderon | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Jae Crowder | Kevin Love | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 25 | 27 | 18 | 15 | 10 | DvP | 9 | 12 | 9 | 20 | 2 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 9 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 21 | DRPM Rat. | 24 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 1 | |
Miami Heat
We have a five game slate on tap tonight. We start with the Heat and Cavaliers in a game that should remain competitive. Cleveland is playing their best basketball of the season, but are also playing in the second half of a back-to-back. In terms of matchups, there are few more favorable than the Cavaliers, who are ranked 27th in points allowed per game and 29th in defensive efficiency this season. The Heat come into the game with an implied total of 102.3 points, which is slightly higher than their season average.
Point guards have had a lot of success against the Cavaliers this season. A large part of that has to do with the fact that they only have one active point guard on their roster and he rarely plays more than 15 minutes a night. Goran Dragic’s price has come down below the $7,000 mark on FanDuel, which puts him in consideration for both cash games and tournaments. I’m going to wait and see what happens with Jeff Teague (questionable) before locking Dragic into my lineups, but this is a great spot against a team that is ranked 25th against point guards.
Dion Waiters has been quiet over the last couple of weeks, but gets a revenge game against his former team. If you remember a few years back, he didn’t exactly get along too well with LeBron James. In his last outing against Cleveland, he dropped 44 fantasy points in 35 minutes of action. He’s an intriguing low-owned option for tournaments. Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow aren’t involved enough offensively (they each have a true usage under 14%) to warrant consideration tonight.
James Johnson’s minutes have been trending down recently, but they may need his defense on LeBron James tonight. If that’s the case, we could see Johnson eclipse the 30-minute mark for the first time in nearly two weeks. He’s a great per-minute producer and should be able to fill up the stat sheet against the Cavaliers. Hassan Whiteside hasn’t played more than 28 minutes and hasn’t scored more than 35 fantasy points in any of his last four games. He’s a tough sell tonight in a game where he needs around 45 fantasy points to reach value.
Notable Injuries
None
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 100.9 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.3 (9 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 1.3 (4 of 10)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.1 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.9 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.6 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $6,900 | $7,500 | $14,500 | 31.6 | -0.6 | 33.7 | -3.0 | 0.94 | 23.9% | 57.9% | 25 | 9 |
| Dion Waiters | $6,100 | $6,200 | $12,800 | 24.5 | -2.8 | 31.4 | -2.4 | 0.78 | 23.6% | 48.8% | 27 | 27 |
| Josh Richardson | $4,200 | $4,400 | $8,500 | 18.5 | -6.8 | 32.8 | -2.6 | 0.56 | 13.3% | 44.5% | 18 | 27 |
| Justise Winslow | $4,000 | $4,000 | $7,300 | 18.5 | 0.9 | 23.4 | -0.9 | 0.79 | 13.9% | 49.7% | 15 | 27 |
| Hassan Whiteside | $8,400 | $8,500 | $14,600 | 36.8 | -9.1 | 27.4 | -3.4 | 1.34 | 18.8% | 62.1% | 10 | 21 |
| James Johnson | $5,800 | $5,900 | $11,300 | 27.7 | -2.5 | 27.7 | -1.6 | 1.00 | 18.7% | 59.1% | N/A | N/A |
| Tyler Johnson | $4,800 | $4,200 | $8,300 | 19.9 | 1.5 | 27.4 | -1.5 | 0.73 | 17.4% | 48.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Goran Dragic (FD), James Johnson (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic (DK), Dion Waiters (GPP), James Johnson (Cash)
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers have won eight games in a row and everyone is still talking about their demise. They are coming off of a big win against the Sixers last night in a game where they were underdogs on the road. They will look to extend their streak tonight against the Heat, who are ranked seventh in points allowed per game this season. This is a pace-down matchup for Cleveland, which helps explain why their implied total of 106.8 points is four points lower than their season average.
We are basically to the point where we only have one trustworthy fantasy option on the Cavaliers. LeBron James has scored at least 51 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. While he deserves some rest, I don’t see this game turning into a blowout. As long as it stays close, James will play 36-40 minutes and continue to rack up fantasy points. The Heat have a few excellent wing defenders, but that’s not a concern when it comes to LeBron. He is as matchup-proof as any player in basketball.
Outside of James, I would only look to the Cavaliers in tournaments. Dwyane Wade has seen big minutes recently, but keep in mind that this is the second half of a back-to-back. Kevin Love should be a tough cover for Hassan Whiteside, who generally doesn’t stray too far from the rim. With Tristan Thompson still out, Whiteside and Love will be matched up for most of the game. Iman Shumpert, Jae Crowder, and J.R. Smith are deep tournament darts at best, especially in this matchup.
Notable Injuries
Tristan Thompson (Out)
Derrick Rose (Out)
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 110.9 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.8 (3 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -4.2 (8 of 10)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.0 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.8 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Calderon | $3,700 | $3,000 | $6,100 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 12.6 | 10.3 | 0.53 | 10.5% | 66.6% | 9 | 24 |
| J.R. Smith | $4,100 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 17.0 | -0.6 | 30.2 | 0.7 | 0.56 | 12.4% | 47.2% | 12 | 13 |
| LeBron James | $12,000 | $11,300 | $20,500 | 53.8 | -0.3 | 37.4 | -4.6 | 1.44 | 29.8% | 66.1% | 9 | 1 |
| Jae Crowder | $4,500 | $4,100 | $7,900 | 15.9 | 1.2 | 26.2 | -1.1 | 0.61 | 13.9% | 54.4% | 20 | 8 |
| Kevin Love | $7,900 | $7,200 | $13,600 | 34.3 | -3.3 | 29.6 | -1.3 | 1.16 | 21.6% | 59.7% | 2 | 1 |
| Dwyane Wade | $5,500 | $5,300 | $9,900 | 23.9 | 1.4 | 23.3 | 0.9 | 1.03 | 22.8% | 48.1% | N/A | N/A |
| Iman Shumpert | $3,600 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 12.2 | -12.2 | 20.8 | -13.9 | 0.59 | 10.9% | 49.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LeBron James
Secondary Plays – Kevin Love
Washington Wizards at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET
| Washington Wizards | Minnesota Timberwolves | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.0 |  | Vegas Total | 213.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.5 | Vegas Spread | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.8 | Implied Team Total | 109.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.7 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tim Frazier | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | Projected Starters | Jeff Teague | Jimmy Butler | Andrew Wiggins | Taj Gibson | Karl-Anthony Towns | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 22 | 14 | 11 | 2 | 25 | DvP | 14 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 5 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 15 | 1 | 26 | 6 | 30 | DRPM Rat. | 6 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 17 | |
Washington Wizards
The Wizards are hoping to keep the ship afloat while John Wall works his way back from injury. They have lost two games in a row and now travel to Minnesota to take on the Wolves in a game where they are listed as 5.5-point underdogs. The good news is that Minnesota is a good matchup for fantasy production, ranking 25th in points allowed per game this season. Don’t be alarmed by the fact that the Wizards’ implied total is 4.6 points below their season average. We need to flip the script — the fact that the Wizards are projected to score 103.8 points without Wall is encouraging.
Tim Frazier will draw the start at point guard tonight and likely see close to 30 minutes. He played fairly well against the Blazers the other night, scoring 22 fantasy points in 28 minutes of action. This matchup is a bit easier for Frazier, as the Wolves are ranked 22nd against point guards. Bradley Beal sees the biggest usage bump with Wall out. On the season, Beal has a 37% usage rate with Wall off the floor and he sees a 0.08 FP/min boost. He’ll likely draw the defense of Jimmy Butler, which is less than ideal, but his increased role negates the difficult matchup.
Otto Porter had his best game in a month, scoring 51 fantasy points against the Blazers the other night. He sees the biggest FP/min boost (+0.12) with Wall off the floor and could see a small boost in playing time as well. He will also draw the better wing matchup, as he’ll square off against Andrew Wiggins, who is one of the worst small forward defenders in basketball. Markieff Morris is no longer on a minute restriction and could see north of 30 minutes in this one. His matchup against Taj Gibson isn’t ideal, but his price on DraftKings ($4,700) is enticing.
Last but not least, we have Marcin Gortat. For some odd reason, he’s one of the streakier centers in the NBA when it comes to fantasy production. We are catching him at the right time, as his production is trending upward and his salary has yet to catch up. Over his last four games, he is averaging 34 minutes and 29 fantasy points. He draws the best possible matchup for a center, as the Wolves are ranked 25th against the position and Karl-Anthony Towns has the worst DRPM of any center in the NBA.
Notable Injuries
John Wall (Out)
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 108.3 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.8 (6 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -4.6 (9 of 10)
Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.3 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.8 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.4 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.8 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Frazier | $4,900 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 13.8 | 2.2 | 17.2 | 5.9 | 0.80 | 14.7% | 48.1% | 22 | 15 |
| Bradley Beal | $8,300 | $7,900 | $15,400 | 37.6 | -0.6 | 35.4 | 2.0 | 1.06 | 26.4% | 57.8% | 14 | 1 |
| Otto Porter | $7,300 | $6,400 | $13,400 | 32.7 | 0.5 | 33.3 | 0.9 | 0.98 | 16.3% | 64.5% | 11 | 26 |
| Markieff Morris | $5,200 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 19.1 | 0.3 | 23.3 | 5.8 | 0.82 | 17.7% | 52.6% | 2 | 6 |
| Marcin Gortat | $4,900 | $5,000 | $9,900 | 25.9 | 3.3 | 30.7 | 3.1 | 0.84 | 13.0% | 59.4% | 25 | 30 |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,300 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 21.6 | -2.2 | 27.9 | -6.1 | 0.77 | 15.1% | 56.1% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Tim Frazier (DK), Bradley Beal, Otto Porter (DK), Marcin Gortat
Secondary Plays – Tim Frazier (FD), Otto Porter (FD), Markieff Morris
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves are only 5-5 in their last ten games, but are currently tied for fourth in the Western Conference standings. They appear to have taken that next step forward and they should only get better as the season progresses. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Wizards, who are ranked right around the league average in pace of play, points allowed per game, and rebounding differential. Minnesota is listed at a 5.5-point favorite with the highest implied total (109.3 points) on the board.
The big injury news to monitor throughout the day is the availability of Jeff Teague. He is listed as questionable, after missing the last two games with an Achilles injury. Teague is listed as the probable starter in the game notes, but is expected to be a game-time decision. If he’s active, he makes an intriguing GPP play at low ownership. If he is out, we can fire up Tyus Jones in all formats. While his blocks and steals over the last two games may be unsustainable, he still put up 33 and 51 fantasy points in Teague’s absence.
Jimmy Butler and Andrew Wiggins are both intriguing tournament options, but are far from core plays for me in this slate. Wiggins will likely draw the defense of Otto Porter, who has one of the best DRPMs of any small forward in basketball. Butler has the better matchup against Bradley Beal, but he’s also overpriced on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I’m more interested in Taj Gibson, who is averaging 36 minutes and 30 fantasy points over his last four games. If Nemanja Bjelica is ruled out, Gibson could be asked to play 38-40 minutes here.
The Wizards have been tough on centers this season and Marcin Gortat has the reputation of being a shutdown low-post defender. However, on the season, Gortat has a below-average DRPM compared to the other centers in the league. If Karl-Anthony Towns is expected to be low owned, I will fire some shares of him in tournaments. He’ll be right around the rim all night long and he does have a nice track record against Gortat, averaging 52 fantasy points in their last two meetings.
Notable Injuries
Jeff Teague (Questionable)
Nemanja Bjelica (Questionable)
Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 108.1 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (1 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 1.2 (5 of 10)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.5 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.8 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.1 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Teague | $7,300 | $6,800 | $12,500 | 32.6 | 12.2 | 33.9 | 2.2 | 0.96 | 21.2% | 53.5% | 14 | 6 |
| Jimmy Butler | $8,800 | $7,600 | $13,000 | 34.5 | 0.9 | 36.2 | -1.0 | 0.95 | 21.5% | 53.4% | 3 | 10 |
| Andrew Wiggins | $6,800 | $6,900 | $12,900 | 30.5 | 0.2 | 36.8 | 2.2 | 0.83 | 21.3% | 52.6% | 29 | 1 |
| Taj Gibson | $5,300 | $5,800 | $12,600 | 26.1 | 4.3 | 31.7 | 3.9 | 0.82 | 12.5% | 59.4% | 5 | 5 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $9,500 | $9,100 | $17,000 | 41.0 | -0.8 | 34.7 | 1.3 | 1.18 | 20.7% | 62.2% | 5 | 17 |
| Tyus Jones | $5,200 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 12.0 | 12.9 | 16.0 | 7.2 | 0.75 | 12.2% | 49.1% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Tyus Jones (if Teague is out), Taj Gibson, Karl-Anthony Towns (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Jimmy Butler (DK), Andrew Wiggins (FD)
Phoenix Suns at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET
| Phoenix Suns | Chicago Bulls | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.0 |  | Vegas Total | 213.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 1.0 | Vegas Spread | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.0 | Implied Team Total | 107.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.5 | Pace Projection +/- | 5.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tyler Ulis | Devin Booker | T.J. Warren | Greg Monroe | Tyson Chandler | Projected Starters | Kris Dunn | Justin Holiday | Denzel Valentine | Lauri Markkanen | Robin Lopez | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 26 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 16 | DvP | 30 | 29 | 17 | 30 | 17 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 2 | 7 | 28 | 17 | 22 | DRPM Rat. | 27 | 29 | 29 | 16 | 8 | |
Phoenix Suns
The Suns have lost seven of their last ten games and have one of the worst records in the NBA. Luckily, tonight they get to face one of the few teams that they have more wins than this season. The Bulls have really struggled offensively and haven’t exactly been a shut-down defense. On the season, they are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Suns have an implied total of 106 points, which is the fourth highest of the slate.
Tyler Ulis and Mike James appear to be back in a time-split. For a while, James was seeing the bulk of the minutes, then it was Ulis, and now it looks pretty even. With Tim Frazier and potentially Tyus Jones in such good spots, we don’t need to waste a roster spot on the Suns’ sticky point guard situation. Devin Booker is expected to play tonight and should resume his 33-36 minute role as the primary scorer in this offense. His price on FanDuel ($7,100) is awfully intriguing, even though Justin Holiday is a solid defender.
I usually side with Booker in these matters, but I actually prefer T.J. Warren tonight. He’s been in better form (36 fantasy points in his last four games), we don’t have to worry about him aggravating an injury, and he draws the better matchup. Denzel Valentine is basically a turnstile on defense and as a whole, the Bulls are ranked 20th against small forwards. If you want to take a shot on the Suns’ frontcourt, be my guest. Personally, there are too many bodies that are splitting minutes for me to feel good about any of them.
Notable Injuries
Devin Booker (Probable)
Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Per Game: 107.0 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (4 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -1.0 (7 of 10)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.9 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.6 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Ulis | $4,300 | $4,400 | $9,900 | 17.1 | 1.6 | 22.2 | 2.3 | 0.77 | 18.6% | 43.8% | 26 | 2 |
| Devin Booker | $7,100 | $8,100 | $15,300 | 34.3 | -6.3 | 33.7 | 1.1 | 1.02 | 26.4% | 55.3% | 18 | 7 |
| T.J. Warren | $7,400 | $7,300 | $13,500 | 31.5 | 3.8 | 30.8 | 5.4 | 1.02 | 22.6% | 53.9% | 20 | 28 |
| Greg Monroe | $4,300 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 18.8 | 2.4 | 18.6 | 2.1 | 1.01 | 17.9% | 56.6% | 22 | 17 |
| Tyson Chandler | $4,800 | $4,400 | $9,400 | 21.3 | 3.3 | 25.6 | -1.0 | 0.83 | 9.6% | 66.6% | 16 | 22 |
| Mike James | $4,400 | $4,600 | $9,300 | 22.7 | 1.1 | 23.3 | 0.0 | 0.98 | 24.4% | 47.9% | N/A | N/A |
| Dragan Bender | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,500 | 13.3 | -1.1 | 21.5 | 1.6 | 0.62 | 10.9% | 53.9% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – T.J. Warren, Devin Booker (FD)
Secondary Plays – Devin Booker (DK)
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls have been one of my least targeted teams so far this season. They haven’t been competitive in many games and they average the fewest points per game of any team in the NBA. We are going to make an exception tonight though, as they draw the most favorable matchup on the board. The Suns are currently ranked first in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game. I’m going to say this twice, just to make it clear — the Bulls are projected to score 12.7 points above their season average. The Bulls are projected to score 12.7 points above their season average.
With such an enticing matchup, we have to be interested in the Bulls’ players tonight. We will start with Kris Dunn, who has been disappointing since entering the starting lineup. There’s always the worry that Jerian Grant will play well off the bench and cut into his minutes, but I always like to side with the starter in these situations. They have the first crack at playing well and there’s a good chance that Dunn plays well against a Suns’ defense that is ranked dead last against point guards this season.
Justin Holiday feels about $500 too cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Devin Booker is not a good defender and the Suns as a whole are ranked 29th against shooting guards. Holiday is a core play for me tonight in both cash games and tournaments. He currently leads the Bulls in minutes per game at 34.2. Denzel Valentine is also viable here, although he’s a bit more volatile than we typically like to see for cash games. Valentine has a massive ceiling and an exploitable matchup though, which puts him on my radar in tournaments.
Lauri Markkanen minutes and production are both trending in the wrong direction. Over his last four games, he is averaging 28 minutes and 24 fantasy points. While this is a slump-busting matchup, I will look elsewhere at power forward. Dollar for dollar, I’d rather play Bobby Portis off the bench, who is averaging a team-high FP/min of 1.09. Robin Lopez is the only Bulls’ player that has a difficult matchup. Tyson Chandler is still an above-average defender, even though he plays for the Suns.
Notable Injuries
David Nwaba (Out)
Nikola Mirotic (Out)
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 94.3 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (2 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 12.7 (1 of 10)
Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns
Points Allowed Per Game: 115.9 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.0 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.7 (1 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Dunn | $6,100 | $6,100 | $12,900 | 25.4 | -4.8 | 26.4 | 0.7 | 0.96 | 23.4% | 44.6% | 30 | 27 |
| Justin Holiday | $5,500 | $5,500 | $11,800 | 25.7 | -5.4 | 34.2 | -0.3 | 0.75 | 19.4% | 47.5% | 29 | 29 |
| Denzel Valentine | $6,200 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 23.1 | 5.5 | 28.2 | 1.9 | 0.82 | 18.1% | 50.9% | 17 | 29 |
| Lauri Markkanen | $6,900 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 28.7 | -4.7 | 30.4 | -2.0 | 0.94 | 19.7% | 53.5% | 30 | 16 |
| Robin Lopez | $5,000 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 24.0 | -3.1 | 29.5 | -1.8 | 0.81 | 18.9% | 53.4% | 17 | 8 |
| Bobby Portis | $4,800 | $5,200 | $10,000 | 25.0 | -0.7 | 22.9 | 0.2 | 1.09 | 22.1% | 54.2% | N/A | N/A |
| Jerian Grant | $4,700 | $4,700 | $8,800 | 21.8 | -0.2 | 26.2 | -1.7 | 0.83 | 19.4% | 52.4% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kris Dunn (FD), Justin Holiday, Denzel Valentine (GPP), Bobby Portis (FD)
Secondary Plays – Kris Dunn (DK), Denzel Valentine (Cash), Bobby Portis (DK), Jerian Grant
Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz – 10:00 PM ET
| Denver Nuggets | Utah Jazz | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.5 |  | Vegas Total | 207.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 2.0 | Vegas Spread | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 102.8 | Implied Team Total | 104.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jamal Murray | Gary Harris | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Nikola Jokic | Projected Starters | Ricky Rubio | Donovan Mitchell | Joe Ingles | Jonas Jerebko | Derrick Favors | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 2 | 5 | 14 | 7 | 3 | DvP | 28 | 4 | 24 | 27 | 1 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 11 | 14 | 5 | 22 | 7 | DRPM Rat. | 26 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 1 | |
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have won six of their last ten games and are currently three games above .500 in the standings. While they have one of the best offenses in basketball, they draw one of the worst matchups of the slate. Even though the Jazz are playing without Rudy Gobert, they are still ranked 26th in pace of play and fifth in points allowed per game. Denver comes into tonight’s contest with an implied total of 102.8 points, which is the third lowest on the board and 5.1 points below their season average.
If you look at the DvP chart above, you can see that the Jazz are ranked 14th or better against every position on the floor. They also have good individual defenders, as evidenced by the DRPM ratings. This is not a matchup to load up on the Nuggets. In fact, I may fade the Nuggets completely. Gary Harris offers decent value at his price point, Will Barton is always viable in tournaments, and Nikola Jokic has tournament winning upside, but there are better plays at each of their respective positions. My favorite play is actually Mason Plumlee, who is $3,600 on DraftKings and who is averaging 21 minutes and 21 fantasy points in his last four games.
Notable Injuries
Wilson Chandler (Questionable)
Mason Plumlee (Probable)
Denver Nuggets Offense
Points Per Game: 107.8 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.8 (8 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -5.1 (10 of 10)
Matchup vs. Utah Jazz
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.7 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.0 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.1 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | $5,000 | $5,100 | $11,900 | 21.9 | 0.6 | 26.6 | 0.7 | 0.82 | 22.3% | 53.7% | 2 | 11 |
| Gary Harris | $6,000 | $5,200 | $11,000 | 26.5 | 3.6 | 32.3 | 2.5 | 0.82 | 15.9% | 62.4% | 5 | 14 |
| Wilson Chandler | $5,000 | $4,800 | $9,300 | 19.1 | -1.9 | 30.3 | -4.7 | 0.63 | 12.6% | 53.3% | 14 | 5 |
| Kenneth Faried | $4,600 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 11.9 | 8.0 | 0.93 | 15.1% | 60.4% | 7 | 22 |
| Nikola Jokic | $9,300 | $8,700 | $17,900 | 40.5 | -3.0 | 30.3 | -3.3 | 1.34 | 20.9% | 61.2% | 3 | 7 |
| Will Barton | $6,300 | $6,300 | $13,400 | 27.7 | -0.2 | 29.2 | -0.1 | 0.95 | 20.3% | 56.8% | N/A | N/A |
| Mason Plumlee | $4,200 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 17.3 | 3.6 | 16.7 | 4.6 | 1.04 | 16.0% | 53.0% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Mason Plumlee (DK)
Utah Jazz
After an ugly losing streak, the Jazz have bounced back with two straight wins. They’ll look for a third tonight, as they host the Nuggets in what should be a pace-up game for Utah. On the season, Denver is ranked 11th in pace of play, 19th in points allowed per game, and fourth in rebounding differential. This isn’t an elite matchup by any means, but there are certainly worse ones on the schedule tonight. The Jazz are listed as 2-point favorites with an implied total of 104.8 points, which is 3.5 points above their season average.
While the spot is pretty decent for the Jazz overall, the individual matchups don’t line up well for them. The two best fantasy options for the Jazz have been Donovan Mitchell and Derrick Favors, who will draw the two best defenders from the Nuggets in Gary Harris and Derrick Favors. Mitchell may spend some time at point guard, which will help, but his minutes have been trending in the wrong direction. As for Favors, he’s a tough sell against a Denver team that is ranked first against centers. Nikola Jokic has the highest DRPM of any player in basketball this season.
If Mitchell and Favors are going to be locked up, then somebody from the Jazz is going to have to step up. I’d like to play Ricky Rubio here, but he hasn’t topped 23 minutes in any of his last four games. Our best bet is to look at Joe Ingles and Rodney Hood on the wing. They should both see minutes in the upper 20s and they should both draw favorable matchups. Jonas Jerebko could also be worth a look if you are starved for value. He is averaging 20 minutes over his last four games.
Notable Injuries
Joe Johnson (Out)
Utah Jazz Offense
Points Per Game: 101.3 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (5 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 3.5 (2 of 10)
Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.5 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.9 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.4 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.6 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Rubio | $5,700 | $5,400 | $11,000 | 27.1 | -5.1 | 28.9 | -7.7 | 0.94 | 22.7% | 52.5% | 28 | 26 |
| Donovan Mitchell | $7,300 | $6,500 | $12,100 | 27.3 | 4.9 | 28.2 | 1.3 | 0.97 | 24.9% | 48.1% | 4 | 5 |
| Joe Ingles | $5,800 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 23.9 | -2.8 | 29.4 | -2.6 | 0.81 | 15.5% | 62.8% | 24 | 23 |
| Jonas Jerebko | $3,700 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 14.6 | 5.6 | 0.77 | 12.8% | 62.3% | 27 | 21 |
| Derrick Favors | $6,900 | $6,300 | $12,900 | 26.1 | 9.3 | 27.6 | -0.3 | 0.95 | 17.3% | 58.6% | 1 | 1 |
| Rodney Hood | $6,100 | $5,700 | $10,300 | 24.3 | 7.6 | 28.3 | -0.2 | 0.86 | 24.6% | 55.6% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Joe Ingles, Rodney Hood
Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 PM ET
| Milwaukee Bucks | Sacramento Kings | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200.0 |  | Vegas Total | 200.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -7.0 | Vegas Spread | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.5 | Implied Team Total | 96.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -3.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Gary Payton | Eric Bledsoe | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | Projected Starters | De’Aaron Fox | George Hill | Garrett Temple | Skal Labissiere | Zach Randolph | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 17 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 29 | DvP | 12 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 22 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 30 | 18 | 14 | 23 | 24 | DRPM Rat. | N/A | 21 | 24 | 10 | 8 | |
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks haven’t quite lived up to expectations yet, as they are 9-9 overall and currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. They have a talented young core and will hopefully get Jabari Parker back in the next couple of months, so I am still bullish on them long term. Tonight they draw a terrific matchup against the Kings, who are ranked 27th in defensive efficiency and dead last in rebounding differential. The pace of the game doesn’t look great, but the Kings can’t really stop anyone on defense (with the exception of the Warriors in the last two minutes of last night’s game). The Bucks have an implied total of 103.5 points, which is slightly above their season average.
The Bucks started “(player-popup #gary-payton-ii)Gary Payton II the other night, but he only played seven minutes against the Jazz. Even if he draws another start tonight, Tony Snell is going to play the bulk of the minutes. Eric Bledsoe has a high true usage rate and excellent matchups against George Hill and De’Aaron Fox, who are both below-average defenders. If Jeff Teague is unable to suit up, Bledsoe could end up being the highest scoring point guard of the slate.
Khris Middleton gets overlooked on a regular basis. It will be interesting to see how the Kings try to match up against the Bucks. They will likely put their best defender (Garrett Temple) on Middleton or Giannis Antetokounmpo, which would leave the other one to eat up the likes of De’Aaron Fox, George Hill, or Skal Labissiere. I won’t be playing Middleton and Giannis together, but most of my lineups will have one or the other. Targeting centers against the Kings has been profitable this season, but John Henson has been quiet in his last few games.
Notable Injuries
Matthew Dellavedova (Doubtful)
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 102.4 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.5 (7 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 1.1 (6 of 10)
Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -6.3 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.4 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Payton | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 7.9 | 1.1 | 0.68 | 15.2% | 50.0% | 17 | 30 |
| Eric Bledsoe | $7,000 | $6,600 | $13,800 | 31.0 | 5.1 | 30.2 | 3.0 | 1.03 | 25.5% | 48.2% | 11 | 18 |
| Khris Middleton | $6,800 | $6,600 | $13,400 | 34.8 | -0.1 | 37.5 | 0.5 | 0.93 | 22.9% | 53.4% | 8 | 14 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $11,800 | $11,200 | $21,200 | 55.6 | -6.1 | 37.9 | 1.4 | 1.47 | 29.4% | 61.0% | 16 | 23 |
| John Henson | $5,500 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 21.8 | -0.9 | 22.6 | 1.2 | 0.97 | 12.4% | 56.6% | 29 | 24 |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $5,300 | $5,000 | $10,500 | 24.2 | -6.8 | 31.3 | -1.8 | 0.77 | 17.9% | 58.6% | N/A | N/A |
| Tony Snell | $3,800 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 17.3 | -1.1 | 32.2 | -1.4 | 0.54 | 9.4% | 69.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo
Secondary Plays – None
Sacramento Kings
The Kings picked up their biggest win of the season last night, as they beat the Warriors in Oakland. Granted, Golden State was missing their best two players, but it was still an impressive win on the road. Tonight they host the Bucks, who aren’t nearly as good defensively as they should be. On the season, Milwaukee is ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency and 26th in rebounding differential. The main issue with this game is the pace, as both teams are ranked in the bottom four in pace of play this season.
With value at point guard, I don’t see a reason to take a shot on George Hill or De’Aaron Fox in anything other than a large field tournament. They both have decent upside, but very low floors. Tim Frazier and potentially Tyus Jones (if Jeff Teague is out) offer better floor and ceiling combinations. Garrett Temple is intriguing, as he’ll be tasked with defending Khris Middleton and/or Giannis Antetokounmpo. There’s a decent chance he plays 30 minutes, which would give him a good shot at exceeding value at his price point.
Zach Randolph’s splits are a little scary this season. We are still dealing with a small sample size, but he is averaging 22 minutes in back-to-backs, 23 minutes with one day of rest, and 28 minutes with two or more days of rest. He has played 51 minutes in his last two games and this is the third game in four nights. I expect him to be popular, which makes him a decent fade in tournaments. I’d rather play Willie Cauley-Stein at lower ownership, who is averaging 31 fantasy points over his last four games.
Notable Injuries
None
Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Per Game: 95.1 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 96.5 (10 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 1.4 (3 of 10)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.8 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.4 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (27 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De’Aaron Fox | $4,700 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 22.2 | -1.4 | 26.4 | 0.5 | 0.84 | 22.4% | 45.6% | 12 | N/A |
| George Hill | $4,500 | $4,100 | $8,500 | 18.4 | 1.5 | 26.3 | 0.9 | 0.70 | 16.8% | 53.4% | 6 | 21 |
| Garrett Temple | $3,700 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 16.3 | 0.8 | 25.3 | 4.3 | 0.64 | 14.1% | 48.0% | 7 | 24 |
| Skal Labissiere | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,500 | 16.7 | -2.3 | 17.5 | -2.5 | 0.95 | 20.0% | 49.1% | 12 | 10 |
| Zach Randolph | $5,800 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 24.6 | 9.2 | 24.3 | 2.8 | 1.01 | 23.7% | 53.1% | 22 | 8 |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | $6,300 | $5,100 | $10,300 | 25.4 | 5.9 | 25.4 | 2.1 | 1.00 | 17.9% | 52.3% | N/A | N/A |
| Buddy Hield | $4,900 | $4,500 | $9,800 | 21.6 | -2.3 | 22.6 | -3.9 | 0.95 | 22.6% | 54.6% | N/A | N/A |