NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, April 11th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET
| Memphis Grizzlies | Oklahoma City Thunder | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
| Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.4 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kobi Simmons | Ben McLemore | Dillon Brooks | Ivan Rabb | Deyonta Davis | Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Corey Brewer | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 9 | 22 | 8 | 10 | 2 | DvP | 21 | 25 | 14 | 15 | 1 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 7 | 20 | 7 | 26 | 17 | DRPM Rat. | 26 | 16 | 18 | 26 | 29 | |
Memphis Grizzlies
Notable Injuries
Tyreke Evans (Out), Marc Gasol (Out), JaMychal Green (Out), Andrew Harrison (Out), Jarell Martin (Out), Chandler Parsons (Out), Wayne Selden (Out)
The Grizzlies’ brutal season finally comes to end with nine healthy bodies on Wednesday. Those nine are: Dillon Brooks, Ivan Rabb, Deyonta Davis, Ben McLemore, Kobi Simmons, MarShon Brooks, Myke Henry, Omari Johnson and Mario Chalmers. The only two guys I’m interested in are the Brooks Brothers. MarShon Brooks is coming off a disappointing outing, but to be fair it was the first time in six games that he was held to under 30 DraftKings points and it was against Jimmy Butler defense. I don’t mind him in this spot to try and finish the year on a good note.
Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 99.0 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 10)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.9 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobi Simmons | $3,800 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 11.3 | 2.3 | 19.0 | 8.0 | 0.59 | 15.0% | 11 | 9 | 7 |
| Ben McLemore | $4,600 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 18.8 | 10.5 | 0.70 | 16.4% | 22 | 22 | 20 |
| Dillon Brooks | $5,400 | $5,400 | $10,300 | 17.8 | 15.7 | 28.5 | 1.5 | 0.62 | 16.1% | 14 | 8 | 7 |
| Ivan Rabb | $5,700 | $5,200 | $9,400 | 12.0 | 14.8 | 13.1 | 13.6 | 0.92 | 14.4% | 16 | 10 | 26 |
| Deyonta Davis | $5,300 | $4,400 | $9,100 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 14.7 | 8.3 | 0.89 | 13.6% | 1 | 2 | 17 |
| MarShon Brooks | $7,500 | $6,400 | $12,300 | 37.9 | -0.9 | 28.1 | 4.4 | 1.35 | 28.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – MarShon Brooks
Secondary Plays – Dillon Brooks
Oklahoma City Thunder
Notable Injuries
Alex Abrines (Out)
The Thunder have clinched a playoff spot but their seeding is up in the air. This isn’t a must-win game for the Thunder but a win would mean they finish no worse than the 6th seed. This fact and the fact they are playing the lowly Grizzlies makes it difficult to prioritize Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony or Steven Adams on this slate. I do expect the Thunder to play hard and try to win it, but it’s possible they are able to put away the Grizzlies in just three quarters. I’m going to list these four starters as secondary plays, but if you’re building multiple teams I would highly recommend getting some exposure to Westbrook in the rare case the Grizzlies can keep this close and Westbrook is asked to carry the team. I would not be shocked if Westbrook ends up with a triple-double here, but I would also not be shocked if he didn’t hit value.
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 107.5 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 10)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.2 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $12,300 | $11,900 | $21,200 | 53.8 | 11.1 | 36.4 | 3.0 | 1.48 | 34.2% | 23 | 21 | 26 |
| Corey Brewer | $5,000 | $4,800 | $9,900 | 12.2 | 10.3 | 16.2 | 12.6 | 0.75 | 13.2% | 19 | 25 | 16 |
| Paul George | $7,800 | $7,900 | $14,800 | 38.6 | -2.1 | 36.6 | 1.9 | 1.06 | 23.4% | 6 | 14 | 18 |
| Carmelo Anthony | $5,200 | $5,700 | $11,000 | 27.5 | 0.6 | 32.2 | 0.3 | 0.85 | 21.1% | 22 | 15 | 26 |
| Steven Adams | $6,000 | $6,300 | $13,200 | 31.8 | -6.1 | 32.7 | 0.0 | 0.97 | 14.7% | 3 | 1 | 29 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Steven Adams, Carmelo Anthony, Paul George, Russell Westbrook
Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers – 8:00 PM ET
| Milwaukee Bucks | Philadelphia 76ers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
| Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Tony Snell | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | J.J. Redick | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Amir Johnson | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 14 | 16 | 19 | 9 | 15 | DvP | 4 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 27 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 1 | 26 | 1 | 25 | 4 | DRPM Rat. | 12 | 26 | 26 | 3 | 7 | |
Milwaukee Bucks
Notable Injuries
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Questionable)
The Bucks are currently 6th in the East but have a lot to play for on Wednesday. There’s a good piece here by beat writer Matt Velazquez, but to summarize it, they need to win to stay in the 6th seed and keep their protected 1st round draft pick from the Eric Bledsoe trade. If they lose, they could move as far down as 8th in the East and potentially lose that draft pick. The article also has a quote from Khris Middleton where he hints Giannis should be back after missing the past two games:
“We’re getting guys back,” wing Khris Middleton said. “I think we’re getting Giannis back Wednesday, got Malcolm back (Monday), hopefully we can get (Matthew Dellavedova) back soon.”
If Giannis is back with no restrictions, I do like him as a tournament play. His return would also make me less interested in Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, Jabari Parker and John Henson. If Giannis is out, I like those four as the usage shifts dramatically when Giannis is off the court.
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 106.6 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 10)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.2 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.0 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.0 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $8,800 | $8,700 | $15,400 | 34.6 | 8.5 | 31.6 | 4.5 | 1.10 | 23.6% | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| Tony Snell | $3,600 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 13.1 | -1.0 | 27.4 | -3.0 | 0.48 | 9.5% | 18 | 16 | 26 |
| Khris Middleton | $8,400 | $8,400 | $15,700 | 35.6 | 5.3 | 36.6 | 0.7 | 0.97 | 22.2% | 7 | 19 | 1 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $11,200 | $10,200 | $18,200 | 52.1 | -1.7 | 36.9 | -1.8 | 1.41 | 28.2% | 7 | 9 | 25 |
| John Henson | $5,800 | $5,300 | $10,300 | 23.9 | 5.2 | 26.0 | 1.6 | 0.92 | 12.9% | 7 | 15 | 4 |
| Jabari Parker | $6,200 | $6,500 | $12,200 | 22.6 | 12.0 | 23.3 | 10.2 | 0.97 | 21.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, Jabari Parker
Philadelphia 76ers
Notable Injuries
Dario Saric (Questionable)
This is a backend game of a back-to-back for the 76ers and a win would grant them the #3 seed over the #4 Cavs. A loss here and a Cavs win would push the 76ers to the #4 seed since the Cavs own the tie-breaker, and the 76ers have stated earlier they want that #3 seed.
Dario Saric left a few seconds into Tuesday’s game after chipping a tooth and never returned, forcing Ersan Ilyasova into the first unit. Meanwhile Ben Simmons played through the flu and posted a decent line considering the circumstances. Because his price tag is so high and because I could potentially get exposure to this 76ers team through other players like Ersan Ilyasova, J.J. Redick and Robert Covington at a cheaper price, I don’t find myself wanting to prioritize a sick Ben Simmons on this slate. It feels a bit dirty, but I’m going to list Ben Simmons as a secondary play knowing he could go ham to secure his Rookie of the Year award. On a slate where I want to prioritize Nikola Jokic and Karl-Anthony Towns, I have a hard time jamming in Ben Simmons too.
This is also a revenge game for Ilyasova after he spent seven seasons in Milwaukee, and you know I’m all about narratives.
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 109.4 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 10)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.5 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.3 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.9 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $10,300 | $10,300 | $18,200 | 42.2 | 10.7 | 34.0 | -2.8 | 1.24 | 22.8% | 10 | 4 | 12 |
| J.J. Redick | $5,700 | $5,800 | $12,400 | 24.7 | 4.5 | 30.2 | -0.7 | 0.82 | 20.1% | 12 | 11 | 26 |
| Robert Covington | $7,700 | $7,400 | $14,400 | 28.3 | 13.1 | 31.7 | 0.4 | 0.89 | 15.3% | 16 | 5 | 26 |
| Dario Saric | $6,000 | $6,700 | $13,000 | 27.9 | -11.6 | 30.1 | -4.1 | 0.93 | 18.5% | 2 | 11 | 3 |
| Amir Johnson | $4,100 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 14.7 | 4.8 | 15.7 | 7.8 | 0.94 | 11.8% | 30 | 27 | 7 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $6,100 | $6,300 | $13,500 | 22.6 | 7.5 | 25.1 | 3.1 | 0.90 | 16.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Marco Belinelli | $5,000 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 18.4 | 8.0 | 24.3 | 4.8 | 0.76 | 18.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Ersan Ilyasova (if Dario Saric is out)
Secondary Plays – Robert Covington, J.J. Redick, Ben Simmons
Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic – 8:00 PM ET
| Washington Wizards | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
| Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.7 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tomas Satoransky | Bradley Beal | Kelly Oubre | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | Projected Starters | D.J. Augustin | Wes Iwundu | Mario Hezonja | Aaron Gordon | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 29 | 26 | 16 | 23 | 23 | DvP | 11 | 15 | 20 | 5 | 8 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 22 | 16 | 29 | 21 | 9 | DRPM Rat. | 7 | 14 | 26 | 20 | 9 | |
Washington Wizards
Notable Injuries
Otto Porter (Doubtful), John Wall (Doubtful)
John Wall is doubtful to play on this backend game even though there are playoff seeding implications here. The Wizards are 8th in the East but could move up and avoid the Raptors. Tomas Satoransky should draw the start. Otto Porter also left Tuesday’s game with a leg injury and the severity is unknown. I’m thinking he misses this game considering he couldn’t even return, and Kelly Oubre would likely join the starting lineup if that were the case.
I did a CourtIQ run with John Wall and Otto Porter off the court to see what happens, and you can find it here. We see that Bradley Beal leads the team with a 33.6% usage rate and averages 1.22 fantasy points per minute, while Beal, Oubre and Markieff Morris see the biggest usage bumps. I actually don’t mind the three of them or even Tomas Satoransky against this weak Magic defense. The one argument you could make is that the tanking Magic are so bad the game may not stay competitive.
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 106.7 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 10)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.4 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.1 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Satoransky | $4,500 | $5,700 | $11,200 | 18.3 | -0.5 | 22.3 | 3.7 | 0.82 | 14.9% | 24 | 29 | 22 |
| Bradley Beal | $8,700 | $7,800 | $14,300 | 37.5 | 1.5 | 36.3 | -0.8 | 1.03 | 25.7% | 24 | 26 | 16 |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,800 | $5,200 | $10,200 | 22.1 | -2.4 | 27.5 | -1.3 | 0.80 | 17.3% | 23 | 16 | 29 |
| Markieff Morris | $5,700 | $5,600 | $11,500 | 23.3 | -5.3 | 26.9 | -5.9 | 0.87 | 16.7% | 19 | 23 | 21 |
| Marcin Gortat | $4,300 | $4,800 | $9,500 | 23.2 | -1.8 | 25.4 | 0.4 | 0.91 | 14.0% | 25 | 23 | 9 |
Elite Plays – Bradley Beal (you can make a case he’s a secondary play if you think this game blows out early)
Secondary Plays – Markieff Morris, Kelly Oubre, Tomas Satoransky
Orlando Magic
Notable Injuries
Jonathan Isaac (Out), Jonathon Simmons (Out)
Jonathan Isaac and Jonathon Simmons have been ruled out, so Mario Hezonja should draw the start in the finale. Normally I don’t have much interest in the Magic since they are obviously in tank mode, but the prices of Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic are kind of tempting. They are by no means a priority on this slate, but if they can get 30+ minutes, they could pay off their price tags. Just keep them in mind since both can put up fantasy points in a hurry.
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 103.4 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 10)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.2 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (18 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Augustin | $4,000 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 19.1 | -2.0 | 23.6 | -2.1 | 0.81 | 18.9% | 8 | 11 | 7 |
| Wes Iwundu | $3,500 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 15.9 | 13.6 | 0.57 | 10.9% | 14 | 15 | 14 |
| Mario Hezonja | $5,600 | $5,800 | $11,900 | 19.3 | 9.4 | 21.8 | 8.5 | 0.88 | 17.3% | 15 | 20 | 26 |
| Aaron Gordon | $6,300 | $6,700 | $12,800 | 34.8 | -8.4 | 33.4 | -5.3 | 1.04 | 21.9% | 20 | 5 | 20 |
| Nikola Vucevic | $8,500 | $7,700 | $14,600 | 37.3 | -0.4 | 30.0 | -5.9 | 1.24 | 23.4% | 11 | 8 | 9 |
| Shelvin Mack | $4,700 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 17.3 | 5.9 | 19.8 | 3.5 | 0.87 | 18.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET
| Denver Nuggets | Minnesota Timberwolves | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212.0 |  | Vegas Total | 212.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 3.0 | Vegas Spread | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.5 | Implied Team Total | 107.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jamal Murray | Will Barton | Wilson Chandler | Paul Millsap | Nikola Jokic | Projected Starters | Jeff Teague | Andrew Wiggins | Jimmy Butler | Taj Gibson | Karl-Anthony Towns | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 18 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 10 | DvP | 26 | 4 | 17 | 27 | 19 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 18 | 28 | 1 | 12 | 24 | DRPM Rat. | 27 | 26 | 22 | 3 | 11 | |
Denver Nuggets
Notable Injuries
None
All eyes will be on this winner-take-all game. The Nuggets and Timberwolves are tied for the 8th seed, and the winner moves on to the playoffs. If you are planning to stack a game or want players who will be motivated, this is the game.
From a pure minutes and motivation standpoint, I am prioritizing Nikola Jokic and Karl-Anthony Towns. It would not shock me if both teams gave them as many minutes as they can handle. On FanDuel where you can only play one, I would rather pay up for Jokic even though he’s so expensive. On a site like DraftKings where you could potentially play both, you’re still left with $4,883 per player, which is doable on this slate.
I have no problem with stacking this game or getting as much exposure to it as you can. Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Will Barton and Paul Millsap are all fine plays on this slate. I’m going to list Barton a secondary play in case he draws Jimmy Butler defense.
Denver Nuggets Offense
Points Per Game: 110.0 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (6 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -5.5 ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.3 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.6 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.1 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | $6,900 | $6,400 | $13,500 | 28.0 | 3.1 | 31.5 | 4.9 | 0.89 | 21.1% | 17 | 18 | 18 |
| Will Barton | $7,000 | $7,300 | $13,700 | 30.7 | 6.5 | 32.9 | 4.6 | 0.93 | 19.8% | 27 | 19 | 28 |
| Wilson Chandler | $4,700 | $4,700 | $8,900 | 21.9 | 0.0 | 31.4 | 0.9 | 0.70 | 13.6% | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Paul Millsap | $7,000 | $6,800 | $12,700 | 31.7 | 0.3 | 29.8 | 4.4 | 1.06 | 20.2% | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| Nikola Jokic | $11,500 | $10,600 | $18,600 | 43.4 | 15.5 | 32.3 | 5.7 | 1.34 | 22.6% | 27 | 10 | 24 |
| Trey Lyles | $3,500 | $3,500 | $7,300 | 19.7 | -8.2 | 19.3 | -7.0 | 1.02 | 19.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray
Secondary Plays – Will Barton, Paul Millsap
Minnesota Timberwolves
Notable Injuries
Taj Gibson (Questionable)
Jimmy Butler still hasn’t played more than 23 minutes since returning from his injury, which makes me concerned about paying his price tag. If there’s one thing that Coach Thibs is good at, it’s running his players into the ground and destroying their knees by playing them 40+ minutes a night. It would not shock me if Butler saw a bigger workload in this winner-take-all, but I’m viewing him as a secondary option until there’s some kind of blurb or statement that suggests Butler is going to see minutes in the 30s.
With the uncertainty about Butler’s minutes and Taj Gibson now being listed as questionable, my main two targets are Karl-Anthony Towns and Jeff Teague. Teague gets an excellent matchup against Jamal Murray and the 19th ranked DvP against point guards. It’s worth noting that the Nuggets did get Gary Harris back but he was limited to just 18 minutes in his return, so he may not be getting a full set of minutes either.
As I mentioned above, I will toy around with some game stacks, as well as some Jokic/KAT stacks. The Timberwolves should see plenty of minutes in this game.
With Jimmy Butler back I’m not a big fan of playing Andrew Wiggins, but he deserves some consideration in this elimination game. And if Taj Gibson were to miss the game, Gorgui Dieng or Nemanja Bjelica would likely draw the start and be worth some consideration in a game stack.
Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 109.5 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.5 (1 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -2.0 ( of 10)
Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.5 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.1 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.9 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Teague | $7,400 | $7,200 | $13,500 | 30.7 | 5.0 | 32.9 | -2.4 | 0.93 | 20.5% | 26 | 26 | 27 |
| Andrew Wiggins | $6,300 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 29.4 | 2.0 | 36.3 | 0.3 | 0.81 | 21.1% | 10 | 4 | 26 |
| Jimmy Butler | $7,800 | $7,400 | $14,000 | 41.3 | -9.9 | 36.8 | -14.0 | 1.12 | 24.0% | 12 | 17 | 22 |
| Taj Gibson | $5,600 | $5,600 | $9,900 | 26.1 | -0.9 | 33.5 | -4.7 | 0.78 | 13.2% | 26 | 27 | 3 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $10,600 | $10,100 | $17,800 | 44.2 | 0.1 | 35.5 | 0.7 | 1.24 | 20.3% | 16 | 19 | 11 |
| Jamal Crawford | $3,500 | $3,900 | $7,500 | 16.0 | -1.1 | 20.7 | 4.8 | 0.77 | 22.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jeff Teague, Karl-Anthony Towns
Secondary Plays – Jimmy Butler, Andrew Wiggins
San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET
| San Antonio Spurs | New Orleans Pelicans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211.0 |  | Vegas Total | 211.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 3.5 | Vegas Spread | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.8 | Implied Team Total | 107.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 3.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Dejounte Murray | Patty Mills | Kyle Anderson | LaMarcus Aldridge | Pau Gasol | Projected Starters | Rajon Rondo | Jrue Holiday | E’Twaun Moore | Nikola Mirotic | Anthony Davis | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 19 | 27 | 26 | 18 | 12 | DvP | 5 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 4 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 20 | 2 | 30 | 11 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 1 | 27 | 1 | 8 | 6 | |
San Antonio Spurs
Notable Injuries
Kawhi Leonard (Out),
The Spurs clinched a playoff spot but they are now playing for seeding. Beat writer Jeff McDonald summarized it best here by saying:
In general:
If Utah loses out and Spurs beat NO, Spurs are 4th
If Utah wins out and Spurs beat NO, Spurs are 5th
If Utah splits and Spurs beat NO, Spurs are 6th
If Spurs lose to NO and Minny beats Denver, Spurs are 7th
If Spurs lose to NO and Denver beats Minny, Spurs are 8th
It’s crazy, but they can be anywhere from 4th to 8th. I can’t trust playing Spurs on this slate with their playoff spot secure, and I’m viewing LaMarcus Aldridge as a secondary play. Everyone else is off my radar given how unpredictable Pop can be.
San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Per Game: 102.8 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.8 (7 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 1.0 ( of 10)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.6 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.9 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.2 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.7 (1 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dejounte Murray | $6,300 | $6,100 | $11,900 | 22.3 | 5.9 | 21.4 | 4.8 | 1.04 | 19.4% | 16 | 19 | 20 |
| Patty Mills | $4,500 | $4,600 | $8,900 | 17.6 | 6.8 | 25.5 | 9.2 | 0.69 | 17.4% | 26 | 27 | 2 |
| Kyle Anderson | $5,300 | $4,500 | $8,700 | 24.0 | 1.9 | 26.8 | 1.7 | 0.90 | 13.1% | 20 | 26 | 30 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | $9,200 | $10,000 | $18,100 | 40.1 | 10.4 | 33.6 | 3.8 | 1.19 | 26.4% | 23 | 18 | 11 |
| Pau Gasol | $4,500 | $4,900 | $9,700 | 27.0 | -7.2 | 23.7 | -4.5 | 1.14 | 19.3% | 12 | 12 | 1 |
| Danny Green | $4,300 | $4,300 | $8,100 | 20.6 | -3.8 | 26.0 | -3.7 | 0.79 | 14.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Rudy Gay | $5,100 | $5,100 | $10,500 | 22.4 | 7.5 | 21.5 | 1.5 | 1.04 | 21.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – LaMarcus Aldridge
New Orleans Pelicans
Notable Injuries
The Pelicans are also secure of a playoff spot but could drop in seeding with a loss. They could also take the #4 spot and homecourt advantage in the first round if they win and the Trail Blazers lose. Beat writer Jim Eichenhofer had a quote here by Coach Gentry:
Alvin Gentry on #Pelicans approach for Spurs game Wednesday: “We’re just going to do the best we can do (to win), and whoever we play, we play… We just want to continue to play good basketball.”
It’s hard to get a read on this team right now. For now, I’m going to list Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo and Nikola Mirotic as secondary plays. I’m sure they want to win and get that homecourt advantage, but I’m not sure at what cost they are willing to do it (someone please make sure the owner of the @isbrowhutyet twitter account is near their computer tomorrow).
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 111.6 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.3 (2 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -4.3 ( of 10)
Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.3 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.9 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.1 (30 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajon Rondo | $5,900 | $6,600 | $12,100 | 26.2 | 3.0 | 26.1 | 2.7 | 1.00 | 18.2% | 13 | 5 | 1 |
| Jrue Holiday | $8,500 | $8,200 | $14,800 | 37.6 | 8.9 | 36.1 | -2.5 | 1.04 | 21.9% | 1 | 3 | 27 |
| E’Twaun Moore | $4,800 | $5,100 | $10,300 | 21.4 | 7.7 | 31.6 | -1.1 | 0.68 | 14.7% | 7 | 7 | 1 |
| Nikola Mirotic | $7,000 | $6,500 | $12,100 | 28.8 | 12.1 | 26.7 | 4.3 | 1.08 | 20.6% | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| Anthony Davis | $12,000 | $11,200 | $20,400 | 54.8 | 6.5 | 36.3 | -0.2 | 1.51 | 25.8% | 6 | 4 | 6 |