NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, February 15th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
San Antonio Spurs at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 206.5 | Vegas Total | 206.5 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | -10.5 | Vegas Spread | 10.5 | |||||||||
Team Total | 108.5 | Team Total | 98.0 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | -0.4 | Pace +/- | -2.0 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | LaMarcus Aldridge | Dewayne Dedmon | Proj. Starter | C.J. Watson | Evan Fournier | Mario Hezonja | Aaron Gordon | Nikola Vucevic | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adj. DvP | 26 | 20 | 19 | 12 | 19 | Adj. DvP | 7 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 2 | |
DRPM | -0.07 | -0.94 | -1.33 | -0.89 | 2.14 | DRPM | -1.06 | 2.04 | 0.76 | 1.28 | 4.32 |
San Antonio Spurs
- Notable Injuries:
Pau Gasol (Out)
- San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Per Game: 106.7 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 108.5 (12 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: 1.8 (15 of 28)
Pace of Play: 96.8 (26 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -0.4 (18 of 28)
- Orlando Magic Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.1 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.3 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.2 (24 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 207.2 (22 of 30)
We have an enormous 14 game slate on tap tonight. In an effort to save you some time and to save me from Carpel Tunnel, we will keep the team analysis to a minimum. The Spurs come into tonight’s game as 10.5-point favorites with an implied total of 108.5 points. They draw an exploitable matchup against the Magic, but we do have to worry about a potential blowout here. We know that the Spurs have been on the winning end of a number of blowouts this season.
Tony Parker draws the best matchup of the five starters and is only $4,300 on FanDuel and $4,000 on DraftKings. He is also averaging 30 minutes in his last three games. The production hasn’t been there, but Parker is a viable play if you need to save at point guard. Kawhi Leonard is a little too expensive on FanDuel, but firmly in play on DraftKings. In the 13 games that Pau Gasol has missed this season, Leonard is averaging 44.7 fantasy points per contest. LaMarcus Aldridge is also in play on DraftKings at $6,300, but he’s far from a core play in this 14 game slate. Dewayne Dedmon has shown some nice upside recently and we know that centers can have success against Orlando. Dedmon is a viable punt play in all formats and could see upwards of 30 minutes tonight.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tony Parker | $4,300 | $4,000 | 0.76 | 26.1 | 4.5 | 19.9 | -4.9 | 23.2% | -10.1% | 26 | -0.07 |
Danny Green | $3,900 | $3,700 | 0.62 | 26.9 | 5.9 | 16.7 | 1.1 | 13.4% | 1.1% | 20 | -0.94 |
Kawhi Leonard | $9,900 | $8,900 | 1.22 | 33.7 | 2.1 | 41.0 | 10.0 | 30.5% | 6.5% | 19 | -1.33 |
LaMarcus Aldridge | $7,300 | $6,300 | 0.97 | 32.4 | 2.5 | 31.4 | -0.9 | 24.0% | 4.4% | 12 | -0.89 |
Dewayne Dedmon | $4,300 | $4,600 | 0.93 | 17.1 | 10.8 | 16.0 | 9.6 | 12.3% | 0.2% | 19 | 2.14 |
David Lee | $5,100 | $4,500 | 0.93 | 18.6 | 2.4 | 17.2 | 5.6 | 17.9% | 3.4% | 12 | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard (DK), Dewayne Dedmon (FD)
Secondary Plays – Kawhi Leonard (FD), Dewayne Dedmon (DK), Tony Parker, LaMarcus Aldridge (DK)
Orlando Magic
- Notable Injuries:
Terrence Ross (Questionable)
- Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 99.9 (29 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 98.0 (28 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: -1.9 (25 of 28)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (19 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -2.0 (24 of 28)
- San Antonio Spurs Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.7 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.3 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.6 (4 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 189.8 (3 of 30)
Magic fans have to be shaking their heads right now. After the Serge Ibaka trade, they basically got rid of Victor Oladipo and their first round pick for Terrence Ross and a worse draft pick. I wouldn’t exactly call that a good trade for Orlando. I really don’t understand the move, but I’m not a general manager. The Magic draw a tough matchup tonight against the Spurs, who are ranked second in points allowed per game and first in defensive efficiency. With an implied total of only 98 points, there is very little to like in terms of potential fantasy options. The Ibaka trade does open up minutes and usage for Aaron Gordon, but this probably isn’t the best spot to target him. Nikola Vucevic has been on a tear recently, but Dewayne Dedmon has one of the highest DRPMs of any player in the NBA.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C.J. Watson | $3,800 | $3,400 | 0.58 | 16.9 | 7.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 15.7% | 4.4% | 7 | -1.06 |
Evan Fournier | $5,500 | $5,900 | 0.78 | 33.1 | 2.9 | 25.8 | 4.9 | 24.2% | 3.3% | 11 | 2.04 |
Mario Hezonja | $3,600 | $3,400 | 0.66 | 11.1 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 20.3% | -3.9% | 2 | 0.76 |
Aaron Gordon | $4,500 | $4,600 | 0.76 | 27.6 | 1.8 | 20.9 | -0.2 | 19.5% | -0.4% | 4 | 1.28 |
Nikola Vucevic | $7,300 | $7,000 | 1.15 | 28.5 | 1.6 | 32.7 | 1.5 | 24.7% | -2.5% | 2 | 4.32 |
Bismack Biyombo | $3,800 | $3,600 | 0.78 | 23.4 | -5.6 | 18.3 | 4.9 | 13.3% | 3.4% | 2 | N/A |
Elfrid Payton | $5,900 | $5,200 | 0.92 | 29.1 | -3.3 | 26.9 | -6.6 | 25.5% | 3.2% | 7 | N/A |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – Aaron Gordon
Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers | Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 219.5 | Vegas Total | 219.5 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | 5.5 | Vegas Spread | -5.5 | |||||||||
Team Total | 107.0 | Team Total | 112.5 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | 0.6 | Pace +/- | 0.5 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Jeff Teague | C.J. Miles | Paul George | Lavoy Allen | Myles Turner | Proj. Starter | Kyrie Irving | Iman Shumpert | LeBron James | Channing Frye | Tristan Thompson | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adj. DvP | 28 | 21 | 23 | 6 | 8 | Adj. DvP | 17 | 12 | 14 | 23 | 11 | |
DRPM | -1.66 | 0.12 | 0.61 | -0.85 | 2.21 | DRPM | -0.18 | -0.87 | 0.00 | -0.81 | 2.27 |
Indiana Pacers
- Notable Injuries:
Thaddeus Young (Out)
Lavoy Allen (Questionable)
- Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 105.7 (14 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 107.0 (14 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: 1.3 (16 of 28)
Pace of Play: 99.3 (14 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 0.6 (12 of 28)
- Cleveland Cavaliers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.0 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.3 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (14 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 206.9 (20 of 30)
The Pacers have lost four games in a row and have fallen back down to sixth place in the Eastern Conference. Tonight’s matchup against the Cavaliers is better than most realize, as Cleveland has struggled defensively over the last few weeks. The Pacers have an implied total of 107 points, which is slightly above their season average. Jeff Teague dropped 50 fantasy points against the Cavaliers in their last meeting. He is going to fly under the radar tonight and will likely end up being sub-10% owned in tournaments. We know that we can attack point guards against Cleveland, as they have allowed the third most fantasy points to the position. Paul George has an excellent track record against LeBron James, averaging 41 fantasy points in their last six meetings. Even with Kevin Love out, I prefer George over LeBron when we factor in their salaries. The one injury to monitor here is the availability of Lavoy Allen. If he is unable to suit up, Kevin Seraphin becomes a tremendous value at power forward. He is averaging 0.84 fantasy points per minute this season and would likely see 28-32 minutes as a starter. Myles Turner would also see a small boost in playing if Allen is unable to suit up.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jeff Teague | $7,200 | $7,400 | 1.04 | 32.6 | -1.6 | 33.9 | -8.0 | 26.3% | -7.5% | 28 | -1.66 |
C.J. Miles | $3,900 | $3,900 | 0.72 | 23.1 | 2.1 | 16.7 | -1.9 | 17.6% | 0.8% | 21 | 0.12 |
Paul George | $8,400 | $7,900 | 1.00 | 35.7 | 1.2 | 35.8 | -2.9 | 27.5% | -1.8% | 23 | 0.61 |
Lavoy Allen | $3,700 | $3,700 | 0.57 | 14.0 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 10.6% | 1.9% | 6 | -0.85 |
Myles Turner | $6,400 | $5,900 | 0.98 | 30.8 | 1.7 | 30.3 | -1.5 | 19.5% | 1.7% | 8 | 2.21 |
Kevin Seraphin | $3,500 | $3,700 | 0.84 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 17.3% | 2.1% | 6 | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jeff Teague (GPP), Paul George (GPP), Kevin Seraphin (if Allen is out)
Secondary Plays – Jeff Teague (Cash), Paul George (Cash), Myles Turner
Cleveland Cavaliers
- Notable Injuries:
Kevin Love (Out)
J.R. Smith (Out)
- Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 111.2 (3 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 112.5 (6 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: 1.3 (16 of 28)
Pace of Play: 99.4 (12 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 0.5 (14 of 28)
- Indiana Pacers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.2 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.9 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.9 (27 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 207.0 (21 of 30)
The Cavaliers have been one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule recently because they have been involved in a number of shootouts. Tonight’s game against the Pacers should be another one, as the over/under is currently set at 219.5 points. Cleveland has an implied total of 112.5 points, which is slightly above their season average. The big news here is that Kevin Love will be out for the next six weeks. If we run the CourtIQ tool, we can see that Kyrie Irving is the biggest beneficiary without Love. He sees a 4.2% usage boost and averages 45 fantasy points per 36 minutes with Love off the floor. LeBron James doesn’t see a major usage boost without Love, but the general rule of thumb in Cleveland is to play the other two when one of their big three is out. James is a viable play in all formats, although he’s not my favorite superstar in the slate. Channing Frye was one of my favorite plays yesterday and he didn’t disappoint with a 38-fantasy point outing. I’m slightly concerned about the fact that he played 33 minutes last night and his ownership will be inflated tonight. Frye is still a borderline elite play in all formats, but you can certainly make the case to fade him.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyrie Irving | $8,400 | $8,400 | 1.06 | 35.2 | 0.3 | 37.2 | 1.5 | 31.5% | 3.0% | 17 | -0.18 |
Iman Shumpert | $3,900 | $3,600 | 0.61 | 25.4 | 0.2 | 15.4 | -5.9 | 13.7% | 3.4% | 12 | -0.87 |
LeBron James | $11,300 | $10,500 | 1.29 | 37.6 | 0.2 | 48.4 | -2.4 | 32.8% | -2.5% | 14 | 0.00 |
Channing Frye | $5,000 | $5,000 | 0.85 | 18.0 | 1.5 | 15.3 | 6.3 | 19.1% | 0.8% | 23 | -0.81 |
Tristan Thompson | $6,400 | $5,500 | 0.79 | 29.8 | 4.5 | 23.5 | 3.7 | 10.9% | 2.2% | 11 | 2.27 |
Kyle Korver | $4,000 | $4,400 | 0.62 | 27.0 | -0.4 | 16.7 | 0.2 | 14.7% | -2.8% | 12 | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving, LeBron James
Secondary Plays – Channing Frye
Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 219.0 | Vegas Total | 219.0 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | 10.0 | Vegas Spread | -10.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 104.5 | Team Total | 114.5 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | -0.2 | Pace +/- | 1.5 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | T.J. McConnell | Gerald Henderson | Robert Covington | Ersan Ilyasova | Nerlens Noel | Proj. Starter | Isaiah Thomas | Marcus Smart | Jae Crowder | Amir Johnson | Al Horford | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adj. DvP | 23 | 14 | 3 | 18 | 22 | Adj. DvP | 9 | 22 | 11 | 5 | 30 | |
DRPM | -4.38 | 0.85 | 1.25 | 2.58 | 0.88 | DRPM | -0.22 | -1.84 | 3.51 | 0.41 | 1.51 |
Philadelphia 76ers
- Notable Injuries:
Joel Embiid (Out)
Jahlil Okafor (Probable)
- Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 101.1 (26 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 104.5 (20 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: 3.4 (11 of 28)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (8 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -0.2 (17 of 28)
- Boston Celtics Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.2 (26 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 204.3 (16 of 30)
The Sixers have played fairly well without Joel Embiid the last couple of weeks, but they may struggle to keep tonight’s game close. They are listed as 10-point underdogs against the Celtics in Boston. While the potential blowout is a concern, this is still an exploitable matchup. The Celtics are ranked 14th or worse in every defensive category listed above. T.J. McConnell carries some GPP value tonight, especially on DraftKings. As I often mention, Isaiah Thomas is DFL in the DRPM rankings. In other words, he is the worst defender in the entire NBA. Nik Stauskas has played well off the bench recently and could see upwards of 30 minutes in this one. He also deserves GPP consideration on DraftKings. Robert Covington is a bit too expensive for my liking in a 14 game slate. It will be interesting to see how many minutes Jahlil Okafor plays tonight. Even with Okafor active, Nerlens Noel will draw another start at center. He is one of my favorite plays at power forward tonight, as he is averaging 30 fantasy points in his last three games. Dario Saric is also in play off the bench, he is averaging 38 fantasy points in his last three games.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T.J. McConnell | $5,600 | $5,100 | 0.81 | 24.8 | 7.8 | 20.2 | 11.5 | 19.4% | -0.3% | 23 | -4.38 |
Gerald Henderson | $3,700 | $3,400 | 0.67 | 24.0 | 2.1 | 16.1 | 1.7 | 17.7% | 2.5% | 14 | 0.85 |
Robert Covington | $6,400 | $6,400 | 0.80 | 31.1 | 1.2 | 24.9 | 6.6 | 18.1% | 4.2% | 3 | 1.25 |
Ersan Ilyasova | $5,400 | $5,200 | 0.90 | 27.2 | -4.2 | 24.6 | -2.2 | 22.6% | 4.5% | 18 | 2.58 |
Nerlens Noel | $5,600 | $6,100 | 1.04 | 19.0 | 8.4 | 19.7 | 10.8 | 17.4% | -1.9% | 22 | 0.88 |
Nik Stauskas | $4,100 | $3,900 | 0.60 | 27.0 | 0.7 | 16.2 | 5.8 | 16.3% | 2.4% | 14 | N/A |
Dario Saric | $5,300 | $5,800 | 0.83 | 24.3 | 3.9 | 20.2 | 18.4 | 22.3% | 5.5% | 18 | N/A |
Elite Plays – Nerlens Noel
Secondary Plays – T.J. McConnell (DK), Nik Stauskas (DK), Dario Saric (GPP)
Boston Celtics
- Notable Injuries:
Jaylen Brown (Out)
Avery Bradley (Out)
- Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 108.4 (6 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 114.5 (5 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: 6.1 (6 of 28)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (18 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 1.5 (8 of 28)
- Philadelphia 76ers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.6 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.7 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.7 (25 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 206.5 (18 of 30)
The Celtics have won nine of their last ten games and are inching closer to the Cavaliers for the best record in the East. They should be able to pick up a win tonight against the short-handed Sixers at home. Boston comes into the game as 10-point favorites with an implied total of 114.5 points, which is the fifth highest in the slate and 6.1 points above their season average. Isaiah Thomas has a massive usage rate with Avery Bradley off the floor, but his price has been too high to warrant consideration. It’s down to $9,400 on DraftKings, but I still only see him as a tournament play. The Sixers are actually decent against point guards this season. Marcus Smart should see all of the minutes that he can handle with Avery Bradley and Jaylen Brown out. Smart is a viable shooting guard target in both cash games and tournaments. Al Horford has struggled in his last few games and will have to deal with Nerlens Noel down low. Even though the Sixers are ranked dead last against centers this season, Noel is an excellent low post defender. Kelly Olynyk is a sneaky tournament play off the bench. He has seen a nice boost in minutes and fantasy production, averaging 28 fantasy points in his last three games.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Isaiah Thomas | $10,000 | $9,400 | 1.21 | 34.5 | 1.4 | 41.7 | -2.3 | 35.2% | -1.1% | 9 | -0.22 |
Marcus Smart | $5,800 | $5,700 | 0.77 | 31.0 | 5.5 | 23.9 | 9.1 | 20.1% | -0.4% | 22 | -1.84 |
Jae Crowder | $6,100 | $5,700 | 0.79 | 32.4 | -3.4 | 25.6 | -4.8 | 16.5% | 0.9% | 11 | 3.51 |
Amir Johnson | $3,700 | $3,500 | 0.80 | 19.9 | -3.5 | 15.9 | 0.1 | 14.3% | 1.8% | 5 | 0.41 |
Al Horford | $6,800 | $6,800 | 1.00 | 33.1 | -0.2 | 33.2 | -7.4 | 22.4% | -1.7% | 30 | 1.51 |
Kelly Olynyk | $4,600 | $4,300 | 0.88 | 21.2 | 5.3 | 18.6 | 10.0 | 19.1% | 0.9% | 30 | N/A |
Elite Plays – Marcus Smart
Secondary Plays – Isaiah Thomas (DK), Kelly Olynyk (GPP)
Charlotte Hornets at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET
Charlotte Hornets | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 212.0 | Vegas Total | 212.0 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | 6.5 | Vegas Spread | -6.5 | |||||||||
Team Total | 102.8 | Team Total | 109.3 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | -1.2 | Pace +/- | 0.3 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Frank Kaminsky | Proj. Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | DeMarre Carroll | Jakob Poeltl | Jonas Valanciunas | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adj. DvP | 8 | 3 | 13 | 16 | 12 | Adj. DvP | 18 | 24 | 26 | 15 | 20 | |
DRPM | 0.71 | -2.49 | 0.58 | 0.91 | 0.53 | DRPM | -0.70 | -0.04 | 1.98 | 0.38 | 0.15 |
Charlotte Hornets
- Notable Injuries:
Miles Plumlee (Out)
Cody Zeller (Out)
- Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 104.8 (17 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.8 (24 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: -2.1 (26 of 28)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (16 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -1.2 (21 of 28)
- Toronto Raptors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (18 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.3 (6 of 30)
The Hornets can’t seem to win a game right now. They have lost nine of their last ten and are coming off of a loss against the Sixers at home. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Raptors, but at least Toronto is playing in the second half of a back-to-back. Charlotte has an implied total of only 102.8 points, which isn’t very appealing. While I’m not interesting in Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum, or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, there is some value in the Hornets’ frontcourt. With Miles Plumlee and Cody Zeller both ruled out tonight, Frank Kaminsky and Marvin Williams may have to play 35 minutes a piece. Kaminsky is averaging 30 fantasy points in his last three games and will likely end up being the chalk power forward on FanDuel ($5,800). Williams is also worth a look, but I see him as more of a low-owned tournament play given his inconsistency.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kemba Walker | $7,600 | $7,600 | 1.05 | 34.1 | 4.4 | 35.9 | -4.1 | 30.2% | -4.2% | 8 | 0.71 |
Nicolas Batum | $7,400 | $7,600 | 0.96 | 34.7 | 1.7 | 33.2 | 3.1 | 23.4% | -2.0% | 3 | -2.49 |
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $5,500 | $4,900 | 0.78 | 29.6 | 2.9 | 23.0 | 1.3 | 14.2% | -4.1% | 13 | 0.58 |
Marvin Williams | $5,100 | $4,700 | 0.75 | 28.3 | 5.9 | 21.3 | -6.0 | 16.9% | -4.8% | 16 | 0.91 |
Frank Kaminsky | $5,800 | $6,000 | 0.82 | 24.8 | 6.6 | 20.5 | 10.2 | 21.2% | 1.5% | 12 | 0.53 |
Elite Plays – Frank Kaminsky
Secondary Plays – Marvin Williams (GPP)
Toronto Raptors
- Notable Injuries:
Serge Ibaka (Questionable)
Patrick Patterson (Questionable)
- Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 109.1 (5 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 109.3 (11 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: 0.2 (21 of 28)
Pace of Play: 97.6 (22 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 0.3 (15 of 28)
- Charlotte Hornets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.5 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.9 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.0 (16 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 207.8 (23 of 30)
The Raptors made a big move the other day, swapping Terrence Ross and a first round pick for Serge Ibaka. Ibaka is basically the better version of Patrick Patterson on offense and he adds some much needed rim protection on defense. Toronto is clearly pushing all of their chips to the center of the table. Even though they are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, they draw a decent matchup against the Hornets, who have struggled on both ends of the floor recently. Kyle Lowry doesn’t quite grade out as an elite play given all of the options at point guard, but I will certainly have some shares of him in tournaments. DeMar DeRozan struggled in last night’s game and was eventually ejected. He still played 38 minutes though, so it’s not like he is going to be any more rested than his teammates. DeRozan is in play on DraftKings at a price of $7,900, especially since the Hornets are ranked 24th against shooting guards. In theory, this is a great spot for DeMarre Carroll, but he logged 40 minutes last night against the Bulls. I’m worried that the Raptors could limit his minutes or even rest him tonight. I’d rather take a shot on Norman Powell, who now has a bigger role in the offense with Ross shipped out of town. I’m not particularly interested in any of the Raptors’ bigs until we know how their rotation is going to shake out.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyle Lowry | $8,500 | $8,000 | 1.06 | 37.6 | -0.8 | 39.9 | -10.1 | 27.1% | -0.6% | 18 | -0.70 |
DeMar DeRozan | $8,700 | $7,900 | 1.13 | 35.6 | 2.1 | 40.4 | -6.2 | 34.2% | -2.0% | 24 | -0.04 |
DeMarre Carroll | $4,200 | $4,400 | 0.68 | 26.8 | 10.0 | 18.2 | 6.2 | 15.8% | -5.2% | 26 | 1.98 |
Jakob Poeltl | $3,500 | $3,000 | 0.63 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 10.6% | -3.6% | 15 | 0.38 |
Jonas Valanciunas | $5,900 | $5,700 | 0.98 | 27.2 | 0.0 | 26.6 | -2.6 | 18.8% | 0.5% | 20 | 0.15 |
Norman Powell | $3,900 | $3,900 | 0.70 | 17.1 | -6.2 | 12.0 | -1.6 | 18.8% | 4.5% | 24 | N/A |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan (DK), DeMarre Carroll (if no minute restriction), Norman Powell
Dallas Mavericks at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 202.0 | Vegas Total | 202.0 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | 5.0 | Vegas Spread | -5.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 98.5 | Team Total | 103.5 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | -1.9 | Pace +/- | -5.2 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Deron Williams | Seth Curry | Wesley Matthews | Harrison Barnes | Dirk Nowitzki | Proj. Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Marcus Morris | Jon Leuer | Andre Drummond | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adj. DvP | 20 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 9 | Adj. DvP | 1 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 10 | |
DRPM | -2.54 | -0.05 | 0.86 | 1.20 | 2.03 | DRPM | -1.23 | 0.03 | 0.14 | -0.20 | 0.79 |
Dallas Mavericks
- Notable Injuries:
J.J. Barea (Out)
- Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Per Game: 98.2 (30 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 98.5 (26 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: 0.3 (20 of 28)
Pace of Play: 93.6 (29 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -1.9 (22 of 28)
- Detroit Pistons Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.9 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.2 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.1 (6 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 196.6 (5 of 30)
Whenever we have these huge slates, there are generally a couple of games that we can cross off the list of potential targets. This appears to be one of those games, as both of these teams are ranked in the bottom seven in pace of play and the top seven in points allowed per game. The over/under is currently set at only 202 points and the Mavericks come into the game with the third lowest implied total in the slate. With Deron Williams back in the mix, Seth Curry and Yogi Ferrell are easy fades at their respective positions. The only play that piques my interest here is Harrison Barnes, who is priced down on DraftKings at $5,700. I like to say that anyone can be a viable target in DFS if the price is cheap enough. The Pistons are tough defensively, but $5,700 for a player that averages over 30 fantasy points per game is certainly worth noting.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Deron Williams | $5,600 | $4,500 | 0.87 | 29.3 | -14.7 | 25.6 | -15.2 | 27.2% | 2.4% | 20 | -2.54 |
Seth Curry | $5,400 | $4,500 | 0.71 | 28.2 | 6.1 | 20.1 | 3.6 | 19.8% | -0.9% | 4 | -0.05 |
Wesley Matthews | $6,000 | $5,700 | 0.70 | 35.3 | -1.2 | 24.9 | 6.3 | 20.5% | -1.6% | 7 | 0.86 |
Harrison Barnes | $6,200 | $5,700 | 0.82 | 35.8 | 0.3 | 29.5 | -2.9 | 24.9% | -0.8% | 13 | 1.20 |
Dirk Nowitzki | $5,800 | $5,500 | 0.96 | 25.8 | 2.1 | 24.9 | 5.6 | 24.7% | 3.3% | 9 | 2.03 |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – Harrison Barnes (DK)
Detroit Pistons
- Notable Injuries:
NONE
- Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 101.3 (24 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 103.5 (23 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: 2.2 (14 of 28)
Pace of Play: 96.9 (24 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -5.2 (27 of 28)
- Dallas Mavericks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.8 (30 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 189.1 (2 of 30)
The Pistons have won five of their last ten games, but are still four games below .500 overall. They have a winnable game tonight against the Mavericks at home, but this isn’t a great game environment for fantasy production. The projected pace is one of the slowest in the slate and the Mavericks are ranked fourth in points allowed per game this season. With that said, the Pistons implied total is 2.2 points above their season average, so maybe Vegas is seeing something that I am missing. The only potential that I see in this spot is Andre Drummond against a Mavericks’ team that is ranked dead last in rebounding differential this season. Drummond plays better at home and is averaging 33 minutes in his last three games. If he plays minutes in the low to mid-30s tonight against Dallas, he could end up with 20 rebounds. At a price of $7,600 on DraftKings, I will certainly give Drummond a look tonight in tournaments.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reggie Jackson | $5,400 | $5,500 | 0.90 | 28.4 | -2.4 | 25.5 | -5.8 | 29.6% | -6.7% | 1 | -1.23 |
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $4,900 | $5,000 | 0.71 | 33.8 | 2.6 | 24.1 | -6.0 | 20.0% | 1.7% | 9 | 0.03 |
Marcus Morris | $5,800 | $5,200 | 0.73 | 33.0 | 0.4 | 24.0 | 2.3 | 20.0% | -1.2% | 4 | 0.14 |
Jon Leuer | $4,500 | $4,600 | 0.78 | 26.9 | 2.5 | 21.0 | -6.4 | 17.2% | -1.9% | 2 | -0.20 |
Andre Drummond | $8,600 | $7,600 | 1.19 | 30.7 | 2.1 | 36.5 | 0.1 | 22.4% | 2.4% | 10 | 0.79 |
Tobias Harris | $5,500 | $5,000 | 0.82 | 31.8 | -3.8 | 25.9 | -1.2 | 21.5% | -0.5% | 2 | N/A |