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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, January 13th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-01-14 18:26:25

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM

Milwaukee Bucks Washington Wizards
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 206.5 washingtonnba Vegas Total 206.5
Vegas Sprd 6.0 Vegas Sprd -6.0
Team Proj. 100.3 Team Proj. 106.3
Team Pace 96.10 Team Pace 99.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Michael Carter-Williams Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe Proj. Starter John Wall Garrett Temple Otto Porter Jared Dudley Nene Hilario
Opp. Season 6 27 29 6 11 Opp. Season 11 19 28 25 13
Last 3 Weeks 12 20 18 3 25 Last 3 Weeks 28 23 30 24 28

Milwaukee Bucks

Record: 16-24 — Road: 5-17 — Last 10: 4-6

Happy hump day everybody!

The Bucks have lost six of their last ten games and have a paltry 5-17 record on the road. They draw a decent matchup tonight against the Wizards in what should be an uptempo game. The Bucks are projected to score 100.3 points, which is 2.5 points higher than their average points scored per game.

The Wizards have been better defensively in recent weeks, but they are still ranked 19th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Jerryd Bayless is still listed as day-to-day, but he is more doubtful than questionable for tonight’s game against the Wizards.

Elite Plays

Khris Middleton

Middleton has been in spectacular form recently, averaging 32.5 fantasy points over his last five games. While many will look to MCW tonight, Middleton has by far the better matchup of the two. The Wizards have struggled to defend wing players this season, ranking 27th against shooting guards and 29th against small forwards.

FD — $6,700 — SF
DK — $6,800 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.6 | Last Five Games: 22.6
Min/Game — Season: 35.5 | Last Five Games: 38.0
FP/Game — Season: 27.7 | Last Five Games: 32.5

Secondary Plays

Greg Monroe

With Marcin Gorat out, Monroe should have his way down low against the likes of Nene Hilario and Drew Gooden. Monroe’s minutes have been down over the last month of play, but he has seen at least 33 minutes in each of his last two games. Given the price difference, Monroe is a better play on DK than he is on FD.

FD — $7,600 — C
DK — $6,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.9 | Last Five Games: 21.2
Min/Game — Season: 30.5 | Last Five Games: 30.9
FP/Game — Season: 32.8 | Last Five Games: 32.8

Michael Carter-Williams

Even though MCW is not a must play tonight, he still deserves consideration with Jerryd Bayless out. In 16 games without Bayless in the lineup this season, MCW has averaged 32.4 fantasy points. He is a stat-stuffing machine with nice upside for tournaments tonight against the Wizards.

FD — $6,900 — PG
DK — $7,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.7 | Last Five Games: 19.3
Min/Game — Season: 30.7 | Last Five Games: 33.9
FP/Game — Season: 28.2 | Last Five Games: 35.7

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Antetokounmpo is coming off of one of his best games of the season. He put up 52.5 fantasy points against the Bulls last night. While consistency is always an issue with Antetokounmpo, he makes a strong tournament play tonight against the Wizards.

FD — $6,800 — SG
DK — $6,500 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.6 | Last Five Games: 18.4
Min/Game — Season: 33.6 | Last Five Games: 33.1
FP/Game — Season: 29.5 | Last Five Games: 30.3

Washington Wizards

Record: 17-19 — Home: 8-11 — Last 10: 5-5

The Wizards have won five of their last ten games and are now 17-19 overall. Tonight they host a Bucks’ team that has struggled all season. The Wizards are 6-point favorites with a team total of 106.3 points. Their total is the fifth highest on the board and it is 5.1 points higher than their average points scored per game.

The Bucks play at a slow pace, but still have one of the worst defenses in the NBA. On the season, they are ranked 23rd or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Given their high team total, we should give a sizable boost to the Wizards’ offense as whole. Marcin Gortat is not with the team and has already been ruled out of tonight’s game. Bradley Beal has been upgraded to a game-time decision.

Elite Plays

Otto Porter

Porter is a bit too expensive to be considered an elite play on DK, but if Bradley Beal is unable to suit up, he can be considered an elite play on FD. He has played well over his last five games, averaging 27.5 fantasy points in 33.6 minutes per contest.

FD — $6,100 — SF
DK — $6,700 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.6 | Last Five Games: 12.5
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 33.6
FP/Game — Season: 25.5 | Last Five Games: 27.5

Drew Gooden

Even though Drew Gooden is not expected to start tonight, he sees the biggest fantasy boost with Marcin Gortat out. Nene Hilario will likely only see 20 minutes. In Gortat’s absence the other night, Gooden played 26 minutes and put up 31 fantasy points.

FD — $3,800 — PF
DK — $3,800 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.2 | Last Five Games: 15.4
Min/Game — Season: 13.3 | Last Five Games: 17.2
FP/Game — Season: 11.3 | Last Five Games: 15.4

Secondary Plays

John Wall

Wall has had slightly better splits at home than the has on his road throughout his career. While there are better point guard options for cash games, he is an intriguing tournament option. The Bucks have struggled against point guards over the last three weeks, allowed the third most fantasy points during that stretch.

FD — $9,900 — PG
DK — $9,600 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.4 | Last Five Games: 24.6
Min/Game — Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 36.2
FP/Game — Season: 40.3 | Last Five Games: 36.7

Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM

Atlanta Hawks Charlotte Hornets
atlantanba Vegas Total 204.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 204.5
Vegas Sprd -3.0 Vegas Sprd 3.0
Team Proj. 103.8 Team Proj. 100.8
Team Pace 99.00 Team Pace 98.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum P.J. Hairston Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opp. Season 14 20 10 27 22 Opp. Season 9 21 19 10 23
Last 3 Weeks 25 19 19 29 19 Last 3 Weeks 15 30 11 7 29

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 23-15 — Road: 10-8 — Last 10: 7-3

The Hawks come into tonight’s game in good form, winning seven of their last ten games. They head to Charlotte to take on the Hornets tonight. The Hawks are projected to score 103.8 points, which is the sixth highest team total on the board.

The Hornets have been mediocre defensively this season, ranking between 13th and 20th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. This may not be the most favorable matchup on the board, but it’s certainly not one that we need to avoid. The problem with the Hawks isn’t their matchup, it’s their individual salaries.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul Millsap

In a vacuum, Millsap is an elite play tonight. However, if you take a step back and look at the fantasy picture as a whole, he is more of a secondary option at power forward. There are a lot of great options at the position. Millsap comes into this game in good form, averaging 41.2 fantasy points in his last five games.

FD — $8,600 — PF
DK — $8,300 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.4 | Last Five Games: 22.9
Min/Game — Season: 33.2 | Last Five Games: 32.5
FP/Game — Season: 37.9 | Last Five Games: 41.2

Al Horford

Speaking of form, there may not be a center in the NBA in better form than Horford. In his last three games, he has scored 41, 45, and 64 fantasy points. His price has come way up though, which makes it a nice time to fade Horford. It feels a bit like chasing points, as he has only averaged 32.5 fantasy points per game this season.

FD — $8,200 — C
DK — $7,200 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.0 | Last Five Games: 20.4
Min/Game — Season: 31.3 | Last Five Games: 31.7
FP/Game — Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 44.9

Kent Bazemore

Bazemore is a decent play tonight on FD. He has been very productive when given minutes this season and he should see around 30 tonight against the Hornets.

FD — $5,800 — SG
DK — $6,500 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.3 | Last Five Games: 19.4
Min/Game — Season: 28.5 | Last Five Games: 29.6
FP/Game — Season: 24.4 | Last Five Games: 29.5

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 17-20 — Home: 13-7 — Last 10: 2-8

The Hornets have lost eight of their last ten games, but that is largely due to injury. Tonight they host the Hawks in what is expected to be a competitive game. The Hornets are projected to score 100.8 points, which is right around the average of the 20 teams in action tonight.

The Hawks have been mediocre defensively this season, ranking between 12th ad 17th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Their biggest weakness has been on the glass. Atlanta is ranked dead last in rebounding differential per game.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Nicolas Batum

Batum should be rested after missing four games. In his first game back, he only scored 25 fantasy points, but he did manage to play 38 minutes. Before the injury, he had played at least 40 minutes in three of his previous four games. He deserves a look tonight at small forward, which is a tough position to fill.

FD — $7,300 — SF
DK — $7,400 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.4 | Last Five Games: 11.4
Min/Game — Season: 34.9 | Last Five Games: 37.8
FP/Game — Season: 31.7 | Last Five Games: 25.7

Cody Zeller

Zeller has made the most of his opportunity to start with Al Jefferson out. Over his last five games, he is averaging 22.4 fantasy points in 29.7 minutes per game. While he is a viable option, I’d rather save a few dollars and go down to Drew Gooden or Marreese Speights.

FD — $4,900 — PF
DK — $5,500 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.2 | Last Five Games: 12.6
Min/Game — Season: 24.6 | Last Five Games: 29.7
FP/Game — Season: 19.7 | Last Five Games: 22.4

New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM

New York Knicks Brooklyn Nets
newyorknba Vegas Total 191.5 brooklynnba Vegas Total 191.5
Vegas Sprd -3.0 Vegas Sprd 3.0
Team Proj. 97.3 Team Proj. 94.3
Team Pace 96.20 Team Pace 97.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Donald Sloan Wayne Ellington Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez
Opp. Season 23 24 20 14 28 Opp. Season 7 14 7 9 14
Last 3 Weeks 22 5 14 27 20 Last 3 Weeks 16 8 21 28 17

New York Knicks

Record: 20-20 — Road: 9-12 — Last 10: 6-4

The Knicks are coming off of a win against the Celtics last night, but it didn’t come without a price. Carmelo Anthony rolled his ankle before halftime and ended up missing the rest of the game. The Knicks are still 5-point favorites tonight though, as they head to Brooklyn to take on the Nets.

The Nets have struggled defensively this season, ranking 19th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The biggest question here is whether or not Carmelo Anthony will play or not. Given the fact that it happened last night, we shouldn’t be surprised if he sits out. If that’s the case, give a nice boost to Kristaps Porzingis, Arron Afflalo, Derrick Williams, and Lance Thomas.

Elite Plays

Kristaps Porzingis

Porzingis was hitting threes from what felt like the parking lot last night. Whenever he is having a big game, Twitter just blows up. I love it. Porzingis is an elite play again tonight, especially if Carmelo Anthony is unable to play. The last time Anthony missed a game, Porzingis played 38 minutes and had 23 points, 13 rebounds, and 4 assists.

FD — $6,300 — PF
DK — $7,000 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.0 | Last Five Games: 22.2
Min/Game — Season: 27.8 | Last Five Games: 30.5
FP/Game — Season: 28.6 | Last Five Games: 34.3

Secondary Plays

If Carmelo Anthony is ruled out, Arron Afflalo (FD: $4,700, DK: $4,900), Derrick Williams (FD: $4,000, DK: $3,600), and Lance Thomas (FD: $3,700, DK: $3,400) would all become viable value plays.

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 10-28 — Home: 6-14 — Last 10: 2-8

The Nets have lost eight of their last ten games, but have at least been semi-competitive at home. The Knicks are a slow-paced team with a solid defense, which helps explain why the Nets have the lowest team total on the board.

As mentioned above, the Knicks have been stout defensively this season. They are ranked tenth in points allowed per game and ninth in fantasy points allowed per game. Even though Donald Sloan drew the start the other night, he still split minutes with Shane Larkin. For now, we should project them both to see around 24 minutes.

Elite Plays

Brook Lopez

In the battle of the Slopez brothers, Brook has dominated Robin. In their ten meetings, Brook has averaged 20.4 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.5 blocks. Lopez is having a career season and has shown that he provides both a high floor and a high ceiling in daily fantasy.

FD — $8,500 — C
DK — $7,600 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.4 | Last Five Games: 21.0
Min/Game — Season: 34.0 | Last Five Games: 34.8
FP/Game — Season: 35.3 | Last Five Games: 32.2

Secondary Plays

Thaddeus Young

Young is a borderline elite play tonight on FanDuel, but again, there are a lot of great power forward options. Young draws a difficult matchup against Kristaps Porzingis, who is one of the longest defenders in the NBA. Young is in play, but certainly not a player that you need to start your lineup with.

FD — $6,700 — PF
DK — $7,200 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.7 | Last Five Games: 17.8
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 31.0
FP/Game — Season: 30.5 | Last Five Games: 27.0

Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM

Minnesota Timberwolves Houston Rockets
minnesotanba Vegas Total 205.5 houstonnba Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Sprd 8.5 Vegas Sprd -8.5
Team Proj. 98.5 Team Proj. 107.0
Team Pace 97.40 Team Pace 99.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Andrew Wiggins Tayshaun Prince Kevin Garnett Karl-Anthony Towns Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Clint Capela Dwight Howard
Opp. Season 12 22 27 30 12 Opp. Season 16 15 16 8 19
Last 3 Weeks 21 27 16 25 10 Last 3 Weeks 14 16 26 5 24

Minnesota Timberwolves

Record: 12-27 — Road: 7-10 — Last 10: 1-9

The Wolves come into tonight’s game in awful form. They have lost nine of their last ten games to fall to 12-27 on the season. They draw a favorable fantasy matchup tonight against the Rockets, but are still only projected to score 98.5 points on the road.

The Rockets have been one of the top teams to target players against this season. They are ranked 20th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. It looks like Nikola Pekovic could be out again tonight, but he doesn’t make a big fantasy impact either way.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Andrew Wiggins

Wiggins has been in good form recently, averaging 29.1 fantasy points per game. If you haven’t seen the hundreds of videos of James Harden refusing to play defense, I’ll save you some time – he stinks. I’ve been targeting shooting guards against the Rockets all season and so far, it has been a profitable strategy.

FD — $6,500 — SF
DK — $6,500 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.8 | Last Five Games: 24.6
Min/Game — Season: 34.9 | Last Five Games: 33.3
FP/Game — Season: 28.4 | Last Five Games: 29.1

Shabazz Muhammad

Muhammed has been a nice source of value recently, averaging 21.4 fantasy points in his last five games. The most important statistic is that he has averaged 27.6 minutes per game during that stretch. He is a viable punt play at small forward tonight.

FD — $3,800 — SF
DK — $4,000 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.5 | Last Five Games: 20.2
Min/Game — Season: 19.0 | Last Five Games: 27.6
FP/Game — Season: 13.3 | Last Five Games: 21.4

Houston Rockets

Record: 20-19 — Home: 12-9 — Last 10: 5-5

The Rockets have won five of their last ten games, including a win over the Grizzlies last night. Tonight they host the visiting Wolves in what should be a fast-paced game. The Rockets are projected to score 107 points, which is the fourth highest team total on the board.

The Wolves have not been great defensively this season, especially over the last month of play. They are now ranked at or below the league average in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Ty Lawson is expected to return from his suspension tonight. Donatas Motiejunas is expected to miss another game.

Elite Plays

James Harden

While I like to give Harden a hard time about his defense, he is still one of the best scorers in the NBA. His price has come down across the industry and tonight is a great opportunity to buy low on the All-Star. He should see minutes in the mid to high-30’s against a bad Wolves’ defense.

FD — $10,000 — SG
DK — $9,700 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.4 | Last Five Games: 25.5
Min/Game — Season: 37.8 | Last Five Games: 36.5
FP/Game — Season: 45.2 | Last Five Games: 37.5

Secondary Plays

Dwight Howard

Howard is a bit expensive on FD, but is a terrific play tonight on DK. At $7,300, he has been reaching and exceeding value regularly. Over his last five games, he has averaged just under 40 fantasy points per game. There is a little concern about the back-to-back, as Howard only played 31 minutes the last time the Rockets were in this situation.

FD — $8,200 — C
DK — $7,300 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.5 | Last Five Games: 15.8
Min/Game — Season: 33.2 | Last Five Games: 39.6
FP/Game — Season: 33.6 | Last Five Games: 39.8

Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics – 8:00 PM

Indiana Pacers Boston Celtics
indiananba Vegas Total 202.5 bostonnba Vegas Total 202.5
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 100.3 Team Proj. 102.3
Team Pace 99.10 Team Pace 100.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Lavoy Allen Ian Mahinmi Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Kelly Olynyk
Opp. Season 8 23 24 15 Opp. Season 2 23 3 17 18
Last 3 Weeks 10 6 20 26 9 Last 3 Weeks 9 14 3 10 11

Indiana Pacers

Record: 22-16 — Road: 9-11 — Last 10: 6-4

The Pacers have won six of their last ten games and are now 22-16 overall. They have struggled a bit on the road, but are only listed as 2-point underdogs tonight against the Celtics. The Pacers are only projected to score 100.3 points, which is 2.1 points lower than their average points scored per game.

The Celtics haven’t been as efficient defensively over the last two weeks, but they are still ranked third in that category on the season. They have some excellent perimeter defenders, but have given up some big outings to opposing frontcourts. It looks like Rodney Stuckey has been ruled out tonight, which opens a few minutes for George Hill, Monta Ellis, and C.J. Miles.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul George

George has been a frustrating fantasy option recently. He shows flashes of brilliance one night and then fails to show up the next night. He is a little expensive given his recent level of production. Over his last five games, he has only averaged 38.2 fantasy points.

FD — $9,000 — SF
DK — $8,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.1 | Last Five Games: 22.9
Min/Game — Season: 35.6 | Last Five Games: 35.3
FP/Game — Season: 39.6 | Last Five Games: 38.2

Ian Mahinmi

Mahinmi is a sneaky target tonight at center. His minutes and production are both up over his last five games and we aren’t afraid to target bigs against the Celtics. On the season, Boston is ranked 24th against power forwards and 15th against centers.

FD — $5,200 — C
DK — $5,000 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 12.3 | Last Five Games: 13.8
Min/Game — Season: 24.3 | Last Five Games: 26.7
FP/Game — Season: 22.3 | Last Five Games: 27.6

Boston Celtics

Record: 19-19 — Home: 9-10 — Last 10: 4-6

The Celtics are in a bit of a slump, losing six of their last ten games. They have fallen back to .500 on the season. They draw a fairly tough matchup tonight against the Pacers. Boston is projected to score 102.3 points, which is slightly lower than their average points scored per game.

The Pacers have been stout defensively this season, ranking seventh or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The biggest issue with the Celtics is how deep their rotation is. They have four guards that split minutes and four bigs that do as well. Kelly Olynyk is a decent tournament option, but there are better plays for cash games.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Jae Crowder

Crowder is the only Celtics’ player on my radar tonight. He has been extremely consistent recently, averaging 31 fantasy points over his last five games. His price in the mid-$6,000’s seems a bit high, but his recent level of production justifies the price bump. He should log heavy minutes again tonight, as he will be tasked with defending Paul George.

FD — $6,300 — SF
DK — $6,400 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.3 | Last Five Games: 16.8
Min/Game — Season: 32.3 | Last Five Games: 34.8
FP/Game — Season: 26.0 | Last Five Games: 31.0

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious