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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 30th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-03-31 02:08:10

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Atlanta Hawks at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM

Atlanta Hawks Toronto Raptors
atlantanba Vegas Total 201.0 torontonba Vegas Total 201.0
Vegas Sprd 1.0 Vegas Sprd -1.0
Team Proj. 100.0 Team Proj. 101.0
Team Pace 99.10 Team Pace 95.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Norman Powell Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas
Opp. Season 3 14 7 5 9 Opp. Season 6 18 12 14 23
Last 3 Weeks 8 17 26 5 1 Last 3 Weeks 14 22 4 8 13

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 45-30 — Road: 21-17 — Last 10: 9-1

The Hawks come into tonight’s game in terrific form, winning nine of their last ten games. They currently sit in third place in the Eastern Conference standings, although their lead over the Heat and Celtics is small. This game means more to Atlanta than it does to the Raptors. That said, the Hawks are only projected to score 100 points, which gives them the fifth lowest team total and the third lowest projected point differential.

The Raptors have been stout defensively this season, ranking 12th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Even though the Hawks want to win this game, the matchup doesn’t set up well for fantasy production. Toronto is ranked 14th or better in fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul Millsap
paul-millsap-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,200 Salary:$8,000
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.14 FP/Min:1.22
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.6 31.8 -0.8 31.7 -0.9
FPPG (FD) 37.1 39.0 1.9 39.1 2.0
TO-Adj. Usage 20.0 19.3 -0.6 19.0 -1.0

Millsap isn’t a player that I will be actively trying to get into my lineups tonight, but he has shown time and time again that he can perform well in difficult matchups. He is a multi-dimensional player that can fill up all areas of the stat sheet. The Hawks need a win to stay in the three seed in the East and Millsap can safely be projected for minutes in the low to mid-30s. He does seem a bit expensive for the matchup though.

Toronto Raptors

Record: 49-24 — Home: 28-9 — Last 10: 6-4

The Raptors have won six of their last ten games and are all but locked into the two seed in the Eastern Conference. Technically, they can still catch the Cavaliers, but the odds aren’t great with Kyle Lowry ailing. The Raptors are listed as 1-point favorites tonight against the Hawks at home. They are only projected to score 101 points, which gives them the sixth lowest team total and the fourth lowest projected point differential.

The Hawks are also a solid team defensively this season, ranking sixth in points allowed per game and second in defensive efficiency. Terrence Ross is listed as probable tonight, but the biggest question here is the availability of Kyle Lowry. He had his elbow drained the other day and he did not participate in this morning’s shoot-around. If he is unable to suit up, give a boost to Cory Joseph and DeMar DeRozan.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

DeMar DeRozan
demar-derozan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,800 Salary:$7,500
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.97 FP/Min:1.02
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.2 36.9 0.7 34.8 -1.4
FPPG (FD) 35.3 36.3 1.0 31.3 -3.9
TO-Adj. Usage 25.9 26.1 0.2 24.0 -1.9

The fantasy appeal of DeRozan hinges on the availability of Kyle Lowry. If Lowry plays, he will likely be at less than 100%, which could result in a small usage boost for DeRozan. If Lowry sits, that would give a monster boost to DeRozan. Without Lowry on the floor this season, DeRozan has a usage rate of 38, while averaging 1.12 FP/min. He would become a borderline elite play if Lowry is ruled out.

Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM

Denver Nuggets Memphis Grizzlies
denvernba Vegas Total 203.0 memphisnba Vegas Total 203.0
Vegas Sprd 0.0 Vegas Sprd 0.0
Team Proj. 101.5 Team Proj. 101.5
Team Pace 98.20 Team Pace 95.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Jakarr Sampson Kenneth Faried Nikola Jokic Proj. Starter Jordan Farmar Tony Allen Matt Barnes JaMychal Green Chris Andersen
Opp. Season 10 4 14 15 5 Opp. Season 21 27 19 24 11
Last 3 Weeks 22 5 18 30 15 Last 3 Weeks 16 29 30 14 2

Denver Nuggets

Record: 31-44 — Road: 14-24 — Last 10: 4-6

The Nuggets have lost six of their last ten games and they are 13 games below .500 on the season. Tonight they head to Memphis to take on the Grizzlies in what will be a pace-down game for Denver. The Nuggets are only projected to score 101.5 points, which gives them the eighth lowest team total and the sixth lowest projected point differential.

The Grizzlies haven’t been the same defensively since they lost Marc Gasol and Mike Conley, but they are still a team that is going to try to slow the pace of the game down. This should be considered a slightly below-average matchup for the Nuggets. Jusuf Nurkic has been ruled out of tonight’s game. You can look to Nikola Jokic, D.J. Augustin, and Will Barton in GPPs, but I may pull a full Nuggets’ fade tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 41-33 — Home: 25-12 — Last 10: 3-7

The Grizzlies have lost seven of their last ten games, but are still a safe bet to make the playoffs. As long as they can win a few games down the stretch, they should be able to hang on to the fifth seed in the West. They still have something to play for though, which can’t be said about a lot of teams right now. The Grizzlies are projected to score 101.5 points against the Nuggets tonight at home.

The Nuggets have not fared well defensively this season, ranking 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Zach Randolph is listed as questionable for tonight’s game, but said that he is hopeful to play. If he is unable to suit up, give a boost to both JaMychal Green and Matt Barnes.

Elite Plays

Jordan Farmar
jordan-farmar-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:N/A Salary:$3,900
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.76 FP/Min:0.81
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.6 25.6 0.0 25.6 0.0
FPPG (FD) 19.4 19.4 0.0 19.4 0.0
TO-Adj. Usage 16.4 16.4 0.0 16.4 0.0

The Grizzlies have had a tough string of matchups recently. They have faced the Spurs twice, which has brought down the production of their entire lineup. What seems to be getting lost in the shuffle is that Farmar is the starting point guard and that he has been playing minutes in the mid to upper-20s (and some of those games have been blowouts). He has 30-minute upside tonight against the Nuggets, who are ranked 21st against point guards this season. I see him as an elite value play tonight on DraftKings. I’d say the same about FanDuel, but he is not in the player pool.

Secondary Plays

Matt Barnes
matt-barnes-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,200 Salary:$5,300
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.76 FP/Min:0.83
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.1 33.3 5.2 33.0 4.9
FPPG (FD) 21.3 28.5 7.2 23.9 2.6
TO-Adj. Usage 14.9 19.7 4.7 14.9 0.0

Barnes is a decent play either way, but I’d bump him up to an elite play if Zach Randolph was ruled out. He has played very well over his last ten games, averaging 28.5 fantasy points in 33.3 minutes per contest. He offers good upside for the price, especially on DraftKings ($5,300). He also draws a nice matchup against the Nuggets, who are ranked 30th against small forwards over the last three weeks.

Los Angeles Clippers at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM

Los Angeles Clippers Minnesota Timberwolves
laclippersnba Vegas Total 212.0 minnesotanba Vegas Total 212.0
Vegas Sprd -5.5 Vegas Sprd 5.5
Team Proj. 108.8 Team Proj. 103.3
Team Pace 98.20 Team Pace 97.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Jeff Green Luc Richard Mbah a Moute DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns
Opp. Season 24 22 18 10 7 Opp. Season 7 7 9 11 16
Last 3 Weeks 26 16 7 23 8 Last 3 Weeks 17 10 12 28 6

Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 46-27 — Road: 21-15 — Last 10: 5-5

The Clippers have lost five of their last ten games, but are all but locked into the four seed in the Western Conference. At this point, they are more concerned with the health of their players than wins, as they can’t really move up or down in the standings. Tonight they take on the Wolves in Minnesota. This is a favorable matchup for fantasy production, as the Clippers are projected to score 108.8 points.

The Wolves have been one of the top teams to target players against this season. They are ranked 24th in points allowed per game and 27th in defensive efficiency. The Wolves have played good defense in the frontcourt, but are ranked 18th or worse against point guards, shooting guards, and small forwards.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Chris Paul
chris-paul-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,400 Salary:$9,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.25 FP/Min:1.35
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.1 31.5 -1.6 30.8 -2.3
FPPG (FD) 41.4 41.8 0.5 41.2 -0.2
TO-Adj. Usage 24.7 25.7 1.0 26.4 1.7

Anytime Paul is playing without Blake Griffin, he is going to be on my radar in some format. Tonight he is more of a GPP play though, because the Clippers have been limiting his minutes recently. Over his last five games, he is only averaging 30.8 minutes. He draws an excellent matchup tonight against the Wolves, who are a fast-paced team that is ranked 24th against point guards this season.

DeAndre Jordan
deandre-jordan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,500 Salary:$7,900
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.06 FP/Min:1.13
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.0 33.9 -0.1 32.5 -1.5
FPPG (FD) 36.0 38.5 2.5 40.6 4.6
TO-Adj. Usage 12.4 13.4 1.0 16.0 3.6

Much like Chris Paul, Jordan is a better target for tournaments than he is for cash games tonight. He always provides nice upside, but I prefer Karl-Anthony Towns and Hassan Whiteside at similar price points. Jordan is worth a look in tournaments though, as he is averaging 40.6 fantasy points over his last five games. He should also fly under the radar, which will keep his ownership low.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Record: 25-49 — Home: 13-24 — Last 10: 5-5

The Wolves have won five of their last ten games and have been one of the more fun team to watch over the last month of play. They are listed as 5.5-point underdogs tonight against the Clippers. Minnesota is projected to score 103.3 points, which is right around the average of the 18 teams in play for both their team total and the projected point differential.

The Clippers have been better defensively than most people realize. They are ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. While the Wolves have been a popular team to target recently, this isn’t a standout matchup for fantasy production. There are really only two players on my radar in this one.

Elite Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns
karl-anthony-towns-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,000 Salary:$8,400
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.22
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.8 37.7 5.9 37.5 5.7
FPPG (FD) 36.0 40.3 4.3 43.4 7.5
TO-Adj. Usage 20.2 20.2 -0.1 21.3 1.1

At this point, how do you not play Towns? He has been on an incredible tear recently, averaging 43.4 fantasy points in over 37 minutes in his last five games. Now that he is seeing 35+ minutes every night, he is one of the top fantasy options at any position. Throw in a matchup against the Clippers, who have the third worst rebounding differential and we have ourselves an elite elite elite play.

Secondary Plays

Ricky Rubio
ricky-rubio-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,400 Salary:$7,200
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.08
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.9 32.3 1.4 33.7 2.8
FPPG (FD) 30.9 35.7 4.9 39.1 8.3
TO-Adj. Usage 16.6 17.9 1.3 19.0 2.5

I’m not sure which side of Rubio I will end up on tonight, but as of now, I’m leaning toward a full fade. He has been playing some great basketball recently, averaging 35.7 fantasy points over his last ten games. The problem is that his price has come up and that he draws one of the worst matchups that a point guard can have. I also expect his ownership to be inflated in tournaments, which hurts his appeal.

Phoenix Suns at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM

Phoenix Suns Milwaukee Bucks
phoenixnba Vegas Total 211.5 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 211.5
Vegas Sprd 6.5 Vegas Sprd -6.5
Team Proj. 102.5 Team Proj. 109.0
Team Pace 100.60 Team Pace 96.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Brandon Knight Devin Booker P.J. Tucker Alex Len Tyson Chandler Proj. Starter Jerryd Bayless Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe
Opp. Season 5 24 26 17 22 Opp. Season 29 30 27 13 13
Last 3 Weeks 2 7 24 9 21 Last 3 Weeks 27 18 20 17 29

Phoenix Suns

Record: 20-54 — Road: 7-30 — Last 10: 3-7

The Suns have lost seven of their last ten games, but have been more competitive over the last month of play. Tonight they head to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks in what should be a great game to target for fantasy production. The Suns are projected to score 102.5 points, which gives them the tenth highest team total and the seventh highest projected point differential.

The Bucks have been a slightly favorable matchup this season, ranking at or below the league average in all four of the defensive categories listed above. This should game could end up being a shootout, which would create a number of great plays on both teams. Tyson Chandler is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he is unable to go, Jon Leuer and Mirza Teletovic would both see a boost.

Elite Plays

Brandon Knight
brandon-knight-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,200 Salary:$7,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.88 FP/Min:0.97
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.0 34.5 -1.5 35.5 -0.5
FPPG (FD) 31.8 32.8 1.0 36.1 4.3
TO-Adj. Usage 22.1 22.7 0.6 23.2 1.1

The Bucks are very tough on point guards, but Knight is playing at a high enough level that I am willing to overlook that tonight. Over his last five games, he is averaging 36.1 fantasy points with a TO-adjusted usage rate of 23.2. He is a point guard that can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and we have a little revenge narrative brewing as well. The Bucks traded Knight away last season.

Devin Booker
devin-booker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$6,700
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.72 FP/Min:0.79
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.9 37.6 10.7 37.0 10.1
FPPG (FD) 19.4 33.2 13.7 34.8 15.3
TO-Adj. Usage 18.8 23.9 5.1 24.9 6.1

Booker has been on a tear over his last ten games, averaging 33.2 fantasy points in 37.6 minutes per contest. He draws a nice matchup tonight against the Bucks and it appears that the Suns are going to give him as many minutes as he can handle for the rest of the season. He is an elite play in all league formats, even at his elevated price point.

Secondary Plays

TBD – Jon Leuer and Mirza Teletovic would both become viable secondary (and GPP) plays if Tyson Chandler is ruled out.

Milwaukee Bucks

Record: 30-44 — Home: 21-15 — Last 10: 4-6

The Bucks haven’t been playing their best basketball recently, but what most people don’t realize is that they have had seven tough matchups in a row. There is light at the end of the tunnel though, as tonight they get to face the Suns at home. The Bucks are projected to score 109 points, which gives them the second highest team total and the highest projected point differential on the board.

The Suns have been atrocious defensively this season, ranking 26th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Earlier in the season, they were stout against opposing frontcourts, but they have struggled to defend all five positions over the last three weeks of play. All five Bucks’ starters have a chance to reach value tonight. Jerryd Bayless and Greg Monroe are best suited as GPP plays.

Elite Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo
giannis-antetokounmpo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,200 Salary:$9,300
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.04
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.2 35.1 -0.1 34.2 -1.0
FPPG (FD) 34.3 40.6 6.3 33.5 -0.8
TO-Adj. Usage 18.7 21.1 2.5 19.1 0.4

Game log watchers are going to see Point God’s recent production and immediately want to fade him tonight. What needs to be pointed out is that he has drawn seven straight bad matchups. If there was ever a matchup for Giannis, this would be it. The game should largely be played in transition and he should be able to add a few blocks and steals to what should already be an impressive stat line.

Khris Middleton
khris-middleton-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,900 Salary:$6,500
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.83 FP/Min:0.89
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.4 34.0 -2.4 32.0 -4.4
FPPG (FD) 30.3 29.0 -1.2 23.7 -6.5
TO-Adj. Usage 19.8 18.0 -1.8 17.2 -2.6

Middleton is one of my favorite plays on the board tonight. His production has also taken a hit with the string of tough matchups, but now he draws the best matchup on the board. The Suns are ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards. I may be in the minority here, but I actually prefer Middleton over Devin Booker. Although ideally, I would have both in my lineup if possible.

Secondary Plays

Jabari Parker
jabari-parker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,100 Salary:$5,500
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.74 FP/Min:0.78
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.2 34.9 3.7 34.3 3.1
FPPG (FD) 23.0 25.4 2.4 26.2 3.2
TO-Adj. Usage 17.2 17.4 0.2 16.6 -0.6

Parker should fly under the radar tonight. Even though the Bucks have been involved in a few blowouts recently, he is still averaging 34.9 minutes over his last ten games. He has a chance to play 35-38 minutes tonight against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. I see him as a borderline elite play tonight on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

New Orleans Pelicans at San Antonio Spurs – 8:30 PM

New Orleans Pelicans San Antonio Spurs
neworleansnba Vegas Total 196.5 sanantonionba Vegas Total 196.5
Vegas Sprd 20.0 Vegas Sprd -20.0
Team Proj. 88.3 Team Proj. 108.3
Team Pace 99.10 Team Pace 96.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Toney Douglas Luke Babbitt Dante Cunningham Alexis Ajinca Omer Asik Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan
Opp. Season 4 1 1 3 3 Opp. Season 19 26 16 19 29
Last 3 Weeks 11 6 3 2 10 Last 3 Weeks 30 23 14 27 9

New Orleans Pelicans

Record: 27-46 — Road: 8-28 — Last 10: 3-7

It’s gotten to the point where even people off the street are scared to sign with the Pelicans. I’ve really only been following the NBA religiously for the last ten years or so, but I can’t remember a team that has had as many injuries as New Orleans has this season. To make matters worse, tonight they have to face the Spurs in San Antonio. The Pelicans are only projected to score 88.3 points and even that seems a big high.

The Spurs are the best defensive team in the NBA, ranking first or second in all four of the defensive categories listed above. While the Pelicans’ points are going to have to come from somewhere tonight, I don’t want to hitch my wagon to any of these horses. Tim Frazier could be worth a look in tournaments, but the rest of the Pelicans can be avoided in all league formats.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

San Antonio Spurs

Record: 62-12 — Home: 37-0 — Last 10: 8-2

The Spurs perfect home record should stay intact tonight, as they host the D-League Pelicans. San Antonio is listed as a 20-point favorite in a game that should be a mis-match right from the start. The Spurs do have a high team total of 108.3 points, but this game lacks fantasy appeal.

Even though the matchup looks favorable on paper, there are too many red flags with the Spurs tonight. I generally don’t like to target their players when they are all healthy, when they are sizable favorites, and when they have little to play for. They have hit the trifecta of unplayability tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious