NBA Preseason: Tuesday, October 11th
Hello again! Thanks to everyone that’s been reading and commenting/tweeting @ me. I really appreciate the support and want to give you guys my best work. The point of these articles to me is to shake the offseason rust and be in midseason form by the time the season rolls around. I want really want to take this time to hone my game picking and news processing.
One thing I’ve really learned is that there is no lock in NBA. Outside of Jordan McRae of course (sarcasm font). He’ll be a fade pretty soon because his price is going to spike drastically with LeBron out for the next few games. I have been averaging about 200 points on my DraftKings teams and believe that I can be better. The picks are all there, but my roster construction needs work. I’m not complaining, but putting this article out, updating it, replying to everyone and working on my own teams is something that’s taking some getting used to.
Last night I was all in on Karl-Anthony Towns and that didn’t work out too well. I was stuck in my ways even though I wrote that Pau Gasol struggles against guys that can out muscle him. I got scared off by the thought of LMA helping out but forgot to realize this is preseason and Aldridge is not going to play a ton of minutes. Then SVG called out his team and I should have realized that Drummond, their superstar, was going to come out fired up. Another thing I noticed was that Tyronn Lue said that they wouldn’t mind conceding 40 points to Dwight as long as they won the game. I plugged in Howard on my 2 Center GPP team and then at the last minute pulled him for Gobert because I wanted that “late flexibility”. Well, no one got ruled out for the Clippers then Howard and Drummond outperformed Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns and I was left thinking what if. My double PG team with Dunn and George Hill saved me from having a horrible night, but I still HATE you, Rodney Hood. I HATE YOU SO MUCH. Oh and just watch, next game he’s going to go off.
I bring up all these points because today we have the biggest quandary on our hands. To play Russell Westbrook or not. Everyone has been chomping at the bit to play Beastbrook and this could be our chance to gain an edge on the field. Westbrook could score 40 FPS in 20 minutes and he always plays well against the Mavs, so I’m not already saying fade him on a four-game slate, but I’m extremely price sensitive. Damian Lillard and D’Angelo Russell play in the late game of the night and both players are very capable of exceeding value. Let’s see how many cheapie plays we can come across so that we can see which PGs fit best on our teams.
Brooklyn at Miami
Brooklyn
Confirmed starters: Jeremy Lin | Joe Harris | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Trevor Booker | Justin Hamilton
Elite Plays: N/A
Secondary Plays: Trevor Booker
Update: Randy Foye is out
Update: Bojan Bogdanovic has been confirmed as the starter at SG.
Update: The Nets have changed their lineup again, Joe Harris will be starting at SG and not Bogdanovic.
Analysis: Brook Lopez has already been ruled out of this game and Justin Hamilton will start in his place. I feel bad for him because he has to deal with GOATside. I’m sure there’s going to be some garbage time and someone is bound to go off. The Heat are working to figure out who will start at PF for them and the only person I see that could take advantage of that is Trevor Booker, but his offensive game is severely lacking and is a hustle player.
Luis Scola also interests me, but I’m not playing a geezer in a meaningless preseason game with much better value plays available at PF. If someone comes across something in the news or their research for this team, feel free to post it in the comments or tweet it to me.
Miami
Confirmed starters: Goran Dragic | Wayne Ellington | Justise Winslow | Derrick Williams | Hassan Whiteside
Elite Players: Hassan Whiteside
Secondary Plays: Goran Dragic | Tyler Johnson
Update Josh McRoberts and Josh Richardson ruled out. Dion Waiters and Beno Udrih will play.
Update: Wayne Ellington and Derrick Williams will start at SG and PF respectively.
Analysis: This is another situation where we must ask ourselves, how much of the field is going to play Whiteside? I’d have to say 65%+ will have him on their roster. I’m looking through center and there is not much there outside of Enes Kanter. With Steven Adams looking likely to play, I don’t see any pivots that are truly viable just yet. Goran Dragic is an interesting play because he is basically going to have like 2-8% ownership tonight and could easily murder the Nets. He is their other “superstar”, so at $5.8k on DraftKings and $5.6k on FanDuel he deserves serious consideration because he does not have to do much to exceed value.
Tyler Johnson also deserves consideration pending the news of Dion Waiters. If Waiters misses this game the Heat only have Wayne Ellington and Rodney McGruder behind him. I’ll be following this situation closely because you guys will likely need a value SG2 to play to get all the studs in.
Philadelphia at Memphis
Philadelphia
Confirmed Starters: TJ McConnell | Gerald Henderson | Robert Covington | Jerami Grant | Joel Embiid
Elite Plays: Richaun Holmes, Jerami Grant
Secondary Plays: Sergio Rodriguez
Update: Jerami Grant will be starting in place of Dario Saric today. I loved him before this news and will continue to hype him some more since he will also play at SF. Richaun Holmes is still a great play and might get less ownership since he is not starting.
Update: Cat Barber expected to play today. Sergio Rodriguez won’t see as many minutes.
Analysis: Dario Saric is considered doubtful for this contest and we might see Richaun Holmes play over 30 minutes tonight. He’s been crushing it the last couple games and deserves to start. Nerlens Noel will continue to be out and the Sixers are already without Jahlil Okafor and Jerryd Bayless. His price is a little tricky on DraftKings because he is no longer a value play and is now the third most expensive PF. On FanDuel if you don’t play him, you’re asking to lose because he is still a minimum priced player there. Joel Embiid is expected to have his minutes increased tonight but I’m not sure I want to plug him in just yet because he starts opposite Marc Gasol tonight. His price is still so low that the time is coming very soon to play him because he can easily exceed value.
Another guy that really interests me here is Jerami Grant. Brett Brown said he thought Grant’s jump shot had improved over the summer. Not sure how much it improved because he still shot 3-for-13, but this guy contributes in every single category of the box score and doesn’t turn the ball over much. Grant’s price has jumped to $5.2k on DK and is still cheap on FD at $4.2k. Go ahead and look at SF today and tell me there’s someone you like over Grant, I sure don’t. Sergio Rodriguez has been playing extremely well and has a 3.17 assist to turnover ratio. He played 27 minutes against the Cavs on Saturday and actually had no turnovers in that game. The only reason he is not an elite play is because they face Memphis who will try to slow it down. Also, how many PGs can we actually play today? Lastly, Cat Barber and Nik Stauskas are both questionable, if either of them play Rodriguez loses value.
Memphis
Confirmed Starters: Mike Conley | Wayne Sheldon | James Ennis | JaMychal Green | Marc Gasol
Elite Plays: N/A
Secondary Plays: JaMychal Green, James Ennis
Update: Tony Allen and Chandler Parsons ruled out. James Ennis likely to start at SF again. Mike Conley is questionable, I’d guess Wade Baldwin starts. Not a fan of him at all though.
Update: Mike Conley has been confirmed as the starter.
Analysis: This team is really confusing and starts the most random guys, so I don’t really have much interest here. Mike Conley might start and go off but he’s most likely not even playing in this game. They paid him way too much money in the offseason ($153 million, jaw drop emoji) to get injured in a preseason game against the Sixers. A guy that does, interest me here is JaMychal Green. He’s been playing like trash and I’m not sure he turns it around. The only reason I listed him is because Brandon Wright is not going to play and with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph limited, he might have to play 30 minutes.
In NBA DFS minutes = $$, so we have to at least look at Green tonight if we need to save. James Ennis also deserves consideration because they are playing the Sixers and he’s only $4.4k on DK and the minimum on FanDuel. I don’t like him much but just giving you guys options as cheap SG2.
Oklahoma City at Dallas
Oklahoma City
Confirmed Starters: Russell Westbrook | Victor Oladipo | Kyle Singler | Domantas Sabonis | Enes Kanter
Elite Plays: Russell Westbrook, Enes Kanter, Victor Oladipo
Secondary Plays: Joffrey Lauvergne
Update: Andre Roberson has been ruled out. His replacement has not been named at this time.
Update: Steven Adams will not play tonight.
Analysis: It’s pretty simple. Everyone is going to play Beastbrook. Outside of Whiteside, there is no one on this slate that can do what he can do. I have two things that concern me though. How many minutes is he going to play and are there other PG options tonight that have higher upside than him? They been playing against international competition, so it’s tough to gauge how much of his playing time was related to the fact that it was meaningless games. If I get some info about his minutes I’ll make sure to update it. Steven Adams was struggling with an ankle injury and didn’t even start the last game. Adams was seen moving around well in shootaround this morning, so I have to believe he’ll play. This really limits the upside of Kanter, but he still deserves GPP consideration.
Victor Oladipo played 29 minutes against FCB last Wednesday and has had almost a week to recover. This man will be hungry to prove that he can be the perfect second fiddle to Westbrook. He’s the most expensive SG tonight and if you decide to fade Westbrook for any reason, you have to play Oladipo. Joffrey Lauvergne also deserves consideration because of Adams’ injury. Lauvergne played 19 minutes last week and is only $4.2k on DraftKings and the minimum on FanDuel. Not sure I can play him over Whiteside on FD, but he deserves consideration on DK tournament teams that attempt the 2C approach.
Dallas
Projected Starters: Deron Williams | | Harrison Barnes | Dirk Nowitzki | Andrew Bogut
Elite Plays: N/A
Secondary Plays: N/A
Update: Wesley Matthews has been ruled out.
Analysis: I’m not really feeling anyone on this team at this time. With Dirk Nowitzki expected to play tonight the only guy I even remotely considered (Dwight Powell) is not viable anymore. Seth Curry is also a weak play with D-Will, Barea, and Devin Harris available.
There’ are just too many PGs today I like ahead of Curry to risk playing him. If he’s not on fire, he’s not doing much. He’s the fourth most expensive PG on DraftKings tonight, pretty much an auto fade. I don’t expect the Mavs to even be a playoff team this year and I am moving on to the game I’ll get to enjoy watching tonight.
Portland at Los Angeles Lakers
Portland
Projected Starters: Damian Lillard | CJ McCollum | Allen Crabbe | Al-Farouq Aminu | Mason Plumlee
Elite Plays: Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum
Secondary Plays: Evan Turner, Allen Crabbe
Analysis: Damian Lillard is in play any time he is on the slate. The Lakers have struggled forever containing PGs and if you’re not playing Beastbrook, can you also fade Dame Dolla on the same slate? I actually have more interest in CJ McCollum as he has taken 33 shot attempts in two preseason games, so I’m going to have to say the usage is there. He’s shooting poorly, but the Blazers always seem to play a little bit better against the Lakers. Evan Turner and Allen Crabbe are splitting the minutes at SF and with the Lakers dealing with uncertainty at the position, one of these guys has a shot to exceed value. Crabbe is cheaper, so maybe it could be him. I’m just not rushing to play these guys. Shabazz Napier played 24 minutes against the Suns on Friday and also deserves consideration. I’m just not sure I can plug him in over all the other PG options tonight.
Noah Vonleh played well in garbage time on Friday and could possibly start if the Blazers decide to go big. Meyers Leonard also is expected back in this game, so I don’t see Vonleh having much upside.
Los Angeles Lakers
Projected Starters: D’Angelo Russell | Lou Williams | Luol Deng | Julius Randle | Timofey Mozgov
Elite Plays: D’Angelo Russell, Julius Randle
Secondary Plays: Jordan Clarkson, Lou Williams
Update: Luol Deng is probable to play tonight. Not playing him but that brings down the prospects of who ever starts at SF for the Blazers.
Analysis: 3Angelo has been LIT after playing poorly in his first preseason game. I’m drinking the Russell Kool-Aid this season because I drafted him in my Auction Dynasty League for $1 last year and will be keeping him for the next 5 years. Luke Walton’s system is perfect for him and the only thing that can scare me will be his price. He’s going to have the ball so much in his hands this year that it’ll be impossible to fade him. He played 31 minutes on Sunday and could easily see 28+ minutes tonight. The only thing that concerns me here is that he has to focus on both sides of the ball tonight and will be in distributor mode instead of a scorer. Also, he could get caught up in the hype and try to outgun Lillard. I’m not fading him but also not going all in with the other PG options available.
Finally, we get a game where Julius Randle has the size advantage. Al-Farouq Aminu does not have the size to bang with Randle and I fully believe he’ll dominate this matchup. He was playing like Odom out there on Sunday and has all the tools to be a great player. Playing 28 minutes in a preseason game makes him pretty secure to me. The only thing that can move me off Randle is if Ed Davis starts for the Blazers. I also think he’ll be chalky because there’s no other PF outside of Richaun Holmes that people will really gravitate towards. Fwiw, I also drafted Randle last year but can’t keep him because I have James Harden. Yes, my team was in the finals in a competitive $ league last season and lost by 1 free throw (I had the tiebreaker). Jordan Clarkson and Lou Williams have been playing well at SG for the Lakers, but they alternate games on who will play better. I think Jordan Clarkson will get more time this game because he has the length to bother McCollum. Brandon Ingram is still working his way into form and I feel like he’s just rushing his shot too much right now. We’ll get to play Ingram before the preseason is over, but just don’t think this is the spot for him.
Thanks again for reading and make sure to follow me on Twitter C_Hira24 for all the late breaking news.