NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 14
With a full 16-game slate of games on tap for Week 14, it is both intuitive and still worth noting how ownership percentages are spread thinner due to more available options. There will always be uber-chalk to consider, but unlike when bye weeks rob us of two-to-six rosters worth of choices, player usage is less concentrated. We can still dabble in buzzier games this week, like the up-tempoed Bills-Eagles matchup, without choking on chalk — assuming we don’t sniff around LeSean McCoy.
McCoy is the perfect convergence of ESPN broadcasting live from Narrative Street and a sweet paper matchup. Everyone and their grandmother know about his Chip Kelly drama after McCoy’s steady stream of soundbites. He is a strong play, is only the fourth-most-expensive running back, and has a coach that lives for moments like this. McCoy is a tough fade, and having zero exposure is risky — but luckily there are a couple of directions to pivot this week.
A couple of those choices are discussed below and will be fairly popular. But with plenty of options on this 16-game menu – especially at quarterback and receiver – being overly contrarian likely offers diminishing returns. Instead, keep an eye out for value will be more helpful in a week where little exists.
On with the Week 14 FanDuel tournament picks
QB Ben Roethlisberger – Pittsburgh Steelers, $8,300 (+$200 from Week 13)
We aren’t overthinking it. With the Saints’ injury-riddled offense crumbling, the Steelers-Bengals matchup – which has a 49-point projected total – could become the week’s highest-scoring. Pittsburgh traveled to Cincinnati in Week 14 last season and they combined for eight touchdowns, 63 points, 129 snaps, and 951 yards. With a pair of strong run defenses, and pass coverage units that are either bad (Steelers -34.6 grade; 29th) or fighting injuries (Pacman Jones doubtful, several others in question), if history repeats itself it will happen through the air.
Since these teams faced off in Week 8, Roethlisberger — who was still shaking off five weeks worth of rust — is PFF’s top quarterback by a mile (+20.5). He averaged 383.3 passing yards and had 10 touchdowns in four games. His only blemish is he has not handled a pass rush well, ranking 26th of 31 passers in Accuracy Percentage while under pressure and sporting a paltry 68.2 quarterback rating against extra rushers (-1.5), versus a 107.7 with no blitzers (+31.1). The Bengals are the league’s lightest-blitzing defense (18 percent) and a 10.4-percent rate in Week 8 was their third-lowest of the season.
QB Tyrod Taylor – Buffalo Bills, $7,500 (+$100)
Taylor is the most direct way to pivot off of McCoy in a game with the third-highest projected total of the week. As the 12th-most expensive quarterback, a QB-RB-stack also offers an affordable method of cutting McCoy’s chalk with unique lineup construction. The Bills have been a low-volume, often-efficient offense (0.39 points per snap; 8th-best), while the Eagles average the most snaps allowed (70.8) and have given up a whopping 39.3 points per game in their last three contests. In short, Philadelphia infuses opponents with plays, and Buffalo is snap-starved (62.5 per game; 25th).
Taylor ranking second in fantasy-points-per-dropback indicates a serious ceiling if his opportunity get juiced. After surrendering per-game passing averages of 282.2 yards and 3.6 touchdowns over the last five games, the Eagles allow the second-most points per game to quarterbacks, including a league-high (tied) three rushing touchdowns. Taylor actually has the same number of rushing touchdowns as McCoy (three), and last week he scored his first since a Week 5 knee injury. He isn’t a sneaky way of getting exposure to this game, but he does check a lot of lineup construction boxes.
RB Doug Martin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $8,000 (+$400)
While Martin will not be lightly owned, he will be helped by McCoy’s popularity. In a difficult week to pay up for two top-tier running backs without making significant concessions elsewhere, and with a gaggle of attractive wideouts, PFF’s highest-graded running back is arguably the top option at his position. Martin leads all active running backs in yards after contact per attempt (3.3) and Elusive Rating (76.5), and he ranks second in Breakaway Percent (43.9). Beyond being $100 more expensive than McCoy, the matchup with the Saints’ porous pass defense will drive ownership toward Tampa Bay’s passing game.
New Orleans can’t stop the pass to save their lives, or at least their jobs — but the run defense is similarly pitiful. They allow the league’s highest yards-per-carry rate (4.9), the third-most fantasy points to running backs, and have given up 5.1 yards per attempt on 32.8 rushes per game over the last month to the Titans, Redskins, Texans, and Panthers. Only Carolina ranks above the bottom-seven for PFF running game grades. The Buccaneers, who have a +21.1 run grade (fourth-best), hand off at the league’s fourth-highest rate, are 3.5-point favorites (and rising), and have stated they will remain run-heavy.
RB Lamar Miller – Miami Dolphins, $6,600 (-$100)
We want to believe that the 20-carry workload (plus two targets) from Week 13 is for real, and new play caller Zac Taylor will support Miller as completely as his predecessors failed him. The carries were Miller’s most since Week 13 of 2013, the only other time he’s topped 19 handoffs. Miller averaged 5.7 yards and only ceded five carries to his backups. After forcing three missed tackles, he ranks third among 29 qualifiers in yards-after-contact-per-attempt (3.04), and he sports PFF’s seventh-best running back grade (+9.6). The workload uncertainty is what makes this a better tournament than cash game play.
When Taylor said he wanted to establish Miami’s ground game prior to facing the Ravens’ fourth-ranked run defense (+51.4), it seemed like a bad spot to start. Now Miller gets the Giants’ 26th-graded unit (-19.6), which has contributed to them allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs. They also surrender the fifth-most receptions to the position, and Miller is the league’s ninth-most targeted back. He only saw two passes last game, mainly due to Miami only running 47 plays. That should be less of a concern against an up-tempo Giants team that gives up the third-most snaps per game (69.3).
RB Spencer Ware – Kansas City Chiefs, $5,800 (-$700)
This is a high-risk play with a mediocre floor. The ceiling, although apparently capped with Charcandrick West back, is higher than it appears. They are the same low price, but West will be more highly-owned than Ware after out-snapping him 35 to 19 and out-touching him 11 to nine. Yet Ware got three red zone chances to West’s one, including the only goalline carry. Ware has a cumulative +4.4 rushing grade on less than a third of the snaps of West – who has a +0.2 grade. Ware has 63 percent of West’s rushing yards on 40 percent of his carries.
It is impossible to say if Andy Reid noticed Ware outperforming West, and Zeus knows we’ve pulled our hair out wishing he’d feature his best talent. So overextending on Ware is dicey. Yet the matchup against San Diego’s 31st-ranked run defense (-48.7) is beautiful. They allow 4.7 yards per carry (third-worst) and Ware already ripped them for 96 yards and two scores on 11 carries. As double-digit home favorites, the game scripts in Ware’s favor. As the goalline back, his scoring chances are high. As a Chiefs running back, he pairs perfectly with their defense in a money spot against the crumbling San Diego offense.
RB Giovani Bernard – Cincinnati Bengals, $5,700 (-$500)
A week after hopping on the Jeremy Hill bandwagon, we’re switching horses for Bernard in a matchup that should favor skillset. Since the Bengals’ Week 8 matchup with the Steelers, they have played two games with a combined scoring margin of seven points. Bernard logged 68.8 percent and 70.4 percent of snaps, while averaging nine targets and seven carries (Hill averaged 10 carries and one target). In the other three games – all blowouts — he played 33.9, 47.5, and 50.7 percent of snaps, while averaging 1.7 targets and 9.3 carries (Hill averaged 17.7 carries alone).
Unless we expect a blowout (Cincinnati is favored by three), Bernard is cheap ticket to a potential shootout in a week where value is scarce. He only got one carry (for 12 yards) and saw three targets (two catches for 22 yards) in their first meeting, so Bernard’s floor is low. He is not a cash game play. But with Pittsburgh’s two highest-snap-playing linebackers sporting -9.7 (Lawrence Timmons) and -8.8 (Ryan Shazier) coverage grades, and ranking 52nd and 48th, respectively, in Tackling Efficiency out of 68 qualifiers, Bernard could pop if Cincinnati decides to use the Steelers’ aggressiveness against them (fifth-highest blitz rate; 40.9 percent).
WR Alshon Jeffery – Chicago Bears, $7,500 (-$200)
Jeffery will not be low-owned, but coming off of a week in which he was chalky and relatively unsuccessful, he won’t be prohibitively popular. The eighth-most expensive receiver is also nestled within $500, in either direction, of no fewer than seven tempting targets. Jeffery is not a flashing “Value” sign either, although an argument can be made that he is a relative bargain. His 12 targets last week continued a trend in which he has seen at least 11 looks in every game, other than an injury-muted Week 10 contest against the Rams (54.5 percent of snaps).
Despite playing just six “full” games for Chicago, Jeffery leads the team in red zone targets by four over Martellus Bennett, who is out for the year. He has turned one of them into a touchdown (7.7 percent), and entered the season with a 24.4 conversion rate. Regression is coming. Jeffery faces a Washington defense that has allowed the fifth-most touchdowns to wideouts and has a cumulative -14.4 pass defense grade (22nd), despite facing the seventh-fewest plays per game. Yet they allow 71.6 snaps per game on the road, which is higher than the Eagles’ league-leading average, versus just 55.4 at home.
WR Martavis Bryant – Pittsburgh Steelers, $7,400 (+$500)
Antonio Brown is obviously also an elite play in a projected pass-heavy shootout, but despite Bryant’s healthy salary bump, he still offers $1,900 in salary savings on his teammate. In a light week for value plays, that’s nothing to sneeze at. Bryant popped off for 114 yards and a score on just four catches last week. His eight targets, which came in a mostly non-competitive game, brought his average to 8.8 when Roethlisberger plays. His 1.8 point-per-target average is fifth-best of all 50-plus target wideouts, and he has scored in five out of his seven games.
Bryant, who will run roughly 54 percent of his routes against Dre Kirkpatrick, should light up the Bengals’ former-first-round-disappointment like a menorah. Kirkpatrick’s coverage grade (-10.5) ranks 110th out of 116 cornerbacks, he’s been targeted the seventh-most in the league (82), and ranks 83rd out of 85 corners in Tackling Efficiency — missing a tackle for every 4.1 he attempts. Bryant, who has forced a missed tackle for every 7.8 catches, caught four of seven targets against Kirkpatrick’s coverage in their last two meetings, for 54 yards and a touchdown.
WR Randall Cobb – Green Bay Packers, $7,000 (-$100)
Cobb has stunk this year relative to expectation. We are less concerned with ownership this week, but sentiment may be over-correcting when it comes to the Packers. Cobb had a top-10 catch percentage among wideouts last season (72.8) and ranks 61st this year (61.3 percent). As a result of Jordy Nelson’s absence, Cobb is running more downfield routes (11.5 average depth of target) than he did in 2014 (9.0 aDOT). However, he is seeing the same target volume (7.8 per game), and over the last two weeks his catch rate is 83.3 percent.
Despite a matchup with the snap-sucking Cowboys, it’s an interesting spot for Cobb and/or Aaron Rodgers. Dallas allows 7.4 more snaps per game when Tony Romo is out. Green Bay runs nearly three more plays per game in Lambeau, where their no-huddle rate is 54.2-percent — versus 17.7 on the road. The Cowboys defend tight ends well (ninth-fewest points allowed) with rookie Byron Jones (+5.7 coverage grade; 18th-best) and have muted perimeter wideouts (just two touchdowns allowed; h/t Mike Clay), but on 93 percent of his routes, Cobb should skewer slot piñata Tyler Patmon. He has somehow managed to compile a -2.9 coverage grade on just 188 snaps.
WR/KR Tyler Lockett – Seattle Seahawks, $5,600 (+$300)
Lockett blew away his previous best overall (+3.6) and receiving grades (+3.1) against the Vikings last week. His seven targets and catches were both two more than the rookie’s previous highs, and 90 receiving yards were a single-game career-best. While most everyone who is playing the Seahawks’ passing game in Week 14 will do it via the red-hot Doug Baldwin, Lockett will be an afterthought. It was probably a coincidental result of a pass-heavier game than what Seattle usually plays, but it certainly does not hurt Lockett’s workload that Jimmy Graham and his team-leading 74 targets disappeared.
Against a Baltimore defense that ranks fourth-best against the run (+51.4) and allows 3.8 yards per carry — but has the 19th-graded pass rush and 21st-graded coverage — the easiest way to move the ball will be through the air. Game script should eventually put the Seahawks into a clock-grinding stance (they are 10.5-point favorites), but that will mean Lockett gets several chances to return punts. His double-dip-point-potential offers a high-upside, lineup-diversifying, cheap addition to the pricy Seahawks’ defense ($5,300).
TE Delanie Walker – Tennessee Titans, $6,100 (+$100)
Walker is so consistent that he’s almost boring. He has double-digit FanDuel points in six of his last 10 games, with at least nine in two others. Plus he’s coming on of late, with four double-digit scores in the last five games and a 15.98-point average during that time. He is averaging 10 targets and 97.3 yards in his last three games, and saw two red zone looks last week – converting one. He is PFF’s third-best passing game tight end (+11.6), and has caught more passes than anyone at his position despite seeing the fourth-most targets.
The Jets give up the third-fewest points to tight ends, which should keep Walker’s ownership rate palatable even in a matchup where the Titans will be forced to throw – and not in Darrelle Revis’ direction. Yet New York has not faced many heavy-hitters other than when the Patriots gave them a 15-target, 11-catch, 108-yard, one-touchdown Gronking. Will Tye caught 25 and 45-yarders last week, one of which came against a blitz. The Jets bring extra rushers on 43.2 percent of dropbacks (third-most), and Walker is Marcus Mariota’s highest-targeted receiver against blitzes by far – catching 74.1 percent of 27 blitzed targets at an 11.4-yards-per-attempt clip, with two touchdowns.
TE Ben Watson – New Orleans Saints, $5,300 (No Price Change)
Watson’s targets have ticked back up over the last two weeks (8.5 per game), and a Week 13 touchdown was his first in a month. The Saints lost running back Mark Ingram, who was averaging 13.8 carries and 4.8 targets per game. Those opportunities will go somewhere, and it’s unlikely that Tim Hightower and the ghost of C.J. Spiller will absorb all of them. With Brandin Cooks’ status also in serious doubt, another 7.9 targets per game are up for grabs. Cooks received 4.3 of those looks between the hash marks, where Watson has seen 61.4 percent of his targets.
Against a Tampa Bay defense that allows the second fewest yards per carry (3.5), it’s tough to imagine New Orleans relying on their run game. And if that is their plan, they probably won’t be able to pull it off for very long with their sieve of a defense backing them. The Buccaneers’ pass coverage grade ranks 31st (-34.9), and although they’re mid-pack in points allowed to tight ends (17th-most), Lovie Smith’s defense tends to allow big games to the position. It is dicey to rely on garbage time production, but Watson should be soaking up Drew Brees’ targets throughout the game.