NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 15
Week 15 has several loose ends still dangling, some of which won’t be tied until inactives are announced on Sunday morning.
Will Spencer Ware sit and make Charcandrick West a must-play? Will the backfield tea leaves in Seattle and New England become more readable by kickoff? Will the Chargers have enough healthy bodies to light up Narrative Street, or will it burn for the second week in a row? With so much unknown, let’s concentrate on what we know for sure.
There are enough high-end quarterbacks in favorable matchups that we want in on the action, and don’t need to worry much about ownership level. Running back has plenty of value down low, one big name at the top, and a few solid spots in between to avoid the crowds. Bryce Brown’s absence from the player pool will push even more traffic onto Seattle’s pass-catchers, but ownership will be pretty spread out elsewhere at receiver. Tight end is, as usual, a tough nut to crack – with punt plays feeling as viable as crowding onto the few prime options like Jordan Reed and Ben Watson. And, mercifully, Gronk is once again “always a good GPP play.”
On with the Week 15 FanDuel tournament picks.
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QB Tom Brady – New England Patriots, $9,500 (+200 from Week 14)
With several top quarterbacks in attractive spots, all of whom are less expensive, we’re paying up to be contrarian with Brady. The question is if his ceiling can combine with sparse ownership to provide an edge with (non-Russell Wilson) quarterback ownership spread so thin? Since 2007, the Patriots have tuned-up at least one opponent in the final weeks, with an average score of 41.9-to-10.9 per each year’s December blowout. With a rest game in Miami following the Jets next week, this looks like the spot. Tennessee allows the fourth-most points to quarterbacks, with an average of 305 passing yards and 3.7 touchdowns in their last three games. Their eighth-ranked run defense (+29.7) is allowing 3.6 yards per carry since Week 6 (fifth-best).
The Titans bring extra rushers at the league’s second-highest rate (46 percent of dropbacks) and, unlike most teams, their blitz rate is consistently high. They don’t back off against top passers like Andrew Luck (44.4 percent) or Drew Brees (60.5 percent). Brady has a 116.9 quarterback rating and a 13-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio against extra rushers (+10.8). His most-targeted receiver when blitzed, Rob Gronkowski (24-of-32 blitzed targets, for 362 yards and 8 touchdowns), is fully-operational. With better receiving options than power (and red zone) runners available, New England’s “extension of the running game” second-half dumpoffs will show up on Brady’s ledger.
QB Blake Bortles – Jacksonville Jaguars, $7,900 (+$200)
Even though he threw another three touchdowns last week – making it eight in his last two games – Bortles’ ownership rate should be palatable with so many options out there. It also will be held in check by Denard Robinson presenting excellent value ($6,300), and many folks’ aversion to pairing a running back and quarterback from the same offense. Bortles also is the surest way to take advantage of a sweet passing matchup, as he can now spread it among his three healthy, plus-sized targets (and a competent pass-catcher in Robinson). In fact, both recommended quarterbacks can be played “naked,” since isolating one top option can be difficult.
The Falcons are allowing the sixth-most points per snap over the last month, with a -7.2 pass coverage grade. The Jaguars play up in pace (26.1 seconds per snap; third-quickest) and have scored the second-most points per snap over the last month. Bortles showed twice against Vontae Davis that he’s fine avoiding a top cornerback, and Desmond Trufant faces the fewest targets per snap. He aligns on the left 97 percent of the time, and with Allen Robinson (40 percent) and Allen Hurns (35 percent) spending roughly equal time on the right, choosing one is tricky. Throw in Julius Thomas’ favorable matchup, and things intersect equally at the triggerman in what should be a passing-based, high-scoring game (49-point over/under).
RB Devonta Freeman – Atlanta Falcons, $8,400 (-$300)
Yes, the matchup doesn’t look great on paper (Jacksonville allows 3.6 yards per carry; fifth-lowest) and the Falcons’ offense is running about as smoothly as Vince Wilfork. But the game has legitimate back-and-forth potential and a rising 49-point over/under. Freeman’s heavy involvement – especially in the passing game, where Jacksonville allows the second-most receptions to running backs — will position him to claim a sizable chunk of Atlanta’s 23 projected points. Julio Jones will command a lot of attention, both in DFS and from the Jaguars’ defense, leaving Freeman a sure-to-be high-volume afterthought.
Jacksonville has been stingy to a mostly-weak string of opposing rushers, but their games tend to produce snap and point volume. Their last three contests averaged 133 plays and 68 points each. Despite the Jaguars’ low yards-per-attempt-allowed mark, they still rank 28th in run defense grading (-37.4) and have allowed more than four yards per carry to such luminaries as Antonio Andrews (4.5), Melvin Gordon (4.3), and Chris Polk (4.6; more on him below. Get pumped?). If we are paying up at running back and want to avoid the overcrowded Adrian Peterson train, pivoting to the Falcons’ No. 2 receiver might just put us on the right tournament track.
RB Lamar Miller – Miami Dolphins, $6,700 (+$100)
If you really hate yourself, go ahead and roster Miller again this week. It is rare that a player inspires “never again!” reactions in Fantasyland after posting 89 yards and two touchdowns, but that’s exactly what the Dolphins’ coaches prompted on Monday night …again. After piling up 69 yards and two scores on seven carries (9.9 yards per attempt) less than five minutes into the second quarter, Miller got five carries the rest of Miami’s (close) loss. Regardless of the injury spin that they’re pushing, logic dictates that his coaches would realize their error. But it’s been the same frustrating story for years.
Miller is not a cash games play, as even favorable game script guarantees nothing from a workload angle. But a matchup with the Chargers’ league-worst run defense (-54.0), which allows 4.8 yards per attempt and gives up the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs, is too juicy to ignore for PFF’s second-highest-graded active running back (+12.1). Miller’s yards-per-carry (5.1) and yards-after-contact-per-attempt (3.2) rates are tied for first out of 37 qualifiers, and San Diego’s linebackers reside near the bottom of the Tackle Efficiency standings. With a cathedral ceiling and a face-melting floor, Miller pairs best with your preferred bottle of booze.
RB Jeremy Hill – Cincinnati Bengals, $6,000 (-$400)
The Bengals are favored by 4.5 points and Hill would be the clearest beneficiary of positive game script. He only received nine touches last week with Cincinnati trailing right from the opening drive. He posted his lowest snap percentage since Week 11 (34.5 percent) — not coincidentally, that was the last time they were in a competitive game (34-31 loss to the Cardinals). In Week 12 and Week 13, Hill got 18 handoffs (and a passing target) per game, while averaging 4.84 yards per carry and posting the second-most rushing yards in the league.
The 49ers allow 4.3 yards per carry, their run defense ranks 19th, and they allow the most fantasy points to running backs. Much has been made of their home-away splits, but non-divisional opponents from Green Bay and Minnesota averaged 4.7 yards per carry, and San Francisco’s at-the-time embarrassment of the Falcons doesn’t look so shocking five weeks later. Even though it was a road game, getting road-graded 43 times by the Browns at a 5.6-yards-per-carry clip is actually relevant. Cleveland’s run blocking ranks 17th (-13.9), while Cincinnati’s is third-best (+27.4). With a backup quarterback leading them, the Bengals will rely on their running game and defense — which sounds like a nicely-correlated tournament stack.
RB Chris Polk – Houston Texans, $5,300 (+$100)
Polk is not someone you want in a high percentage of lineups. Obviously. Yet he is in a quietly-solid spot against a reeling Colts team, for a game that should script better than last week’s loss to the Patriots. Polk earned the first start of his NFL career and took the Texans’ first six handoffs (and caught a pass) before becoming less involved as New England pulled away. It was the third-straight week in which he saw his snap percentage rise. Texans’ coaches appear to be phasing Albert Blue out, as he dressed but played zero snaps. Word is that it was due to a minor injury, but Blue’s snap rates have been dropping since Week 11.
With backup quarterback T.J. Yates starting, and their opponent far less likely to blow them out, we should see Polk’s workload continue to trend upward. Indianapolis’ run defense ranks 21st (+0.7), running backs have piled up the eighth-most rushing yards against them, and during the last month they’ve allowed 5.1 yards per carry. That coincides with the loss of their best run-stopping lineman, Henry Anderson (+10.2). The Colts’ offense is also a mess, as Matt Hasselbeck finally turned back into a pumpkin. That puts the Texans’ defense on the DFS radar, while keeping Polk’s script viable — presenting a low-cost correlation opportunity.
WR Alshon Jeffery – Chicago Bears, $7,900 (+$400)
Jeffery’s nine targets against Washington did not quite reach his 12.7 average from the six healthy contests that he’d played, but they were still a top-10 total for the week and he positively regressed in a key area. Coming into Week 14, he had converted just 7.7 percent of his red zone targets into touchdowns, compared to a 24.4 career rate. He got one red zone look and scored. It was a baby step but reflects the scoring potential that led to 10 touchdowns last year and has been dormant thus far (three touchdowns).
The Vikings defense has suffered through injuries of late, but is getting healthier. With Linval Joseph (+25.3 run defense grade; third-best of 71 qualifiers) set to return, the sledding will be as tough for Bears’ running backs as it was when Matt Forte and Jeremy Langford averaged less than four years per carry during the teams’ first meeting in Chicago. That will push more work onto Jeffery’s plate, and he should eat. Rookie Trae Waynes allowed 78 yards and a score last week in his first start, and Jeffery already tagged Xavier Rhodes (-9.1 coverage grade; 101st of 116) for five catches, 42 yards and a touchdown in Week 8.
WR Randall Cobb – Green Bay Packers, $7,200 (+$200)
We are going to stick with Cobb for another week despite his modest Week 14 stat line. His eight catches tied a season-high that was set in Week 2, and his 12 targets matched a season-high that he hadn’t reached since Week 9. Cobb’s 13.00 FanDuel points and 81 yards were his best outputs since that same game. With head coach Mike McCarthy reclaiming his role as play-caller, Cobb was a more central part of the game plan, lining up all over the formation and in the backfield — from where he received three handoffs. Against an Oakland run defense that ranks sixth (+37.1), we can expect McCarthy to favor a more passing-based attack.
Cobb’s relatively muted production, along with a generally disappointing season, is a blessing today. His ownership rate shouldn’t be egregious, his price hike was not terrible, and his matchup against the Raiders’ secondary is attractive. Other than David Amerson, who rarely ventures into the slot (four percent of snaps), Oakland fields an incompetent group of cornerbacks who have contributed to a -29.9 team coverage grade (29th). T.J. Carrie, who Cobb will see most often, has a -6.3 coverage grade over the last month (102nd of 104 qualifiers).
WR Sammy Watkins – Buffalo Bills, $7,200 (No Price Change)
Despite catching five passes for 81 yards and a touchdown – his third consecutive double-digit FanDuel point output – Watkins investors were left wanting more. With his price remaining affordable, and many folks who were on him last week now looking for the next big thing, this is a nice spot for Buffalo’s dynamic wideout. Since his Week 8 bye (and once his health improved), Watkins has a +7.6 passing game grade (seventh-best) and is averaging 7.8 targets, 94.8 yards, and 0.83 touchdowns per game. That even includes a combined six catches for 53 yards and zero scores in two of those six games against the Jets and Patriots.
Washington’s pass coverage (-20.3) is a far cry from what Watkins’ two AFC East rivals offer, and it’s contributed to them allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to wideouts. Watkins is a relatively rare perimeter receiver who lines up on one side on well more than half of his routes (left; 59 percent), and that will bring him into Quinton Dunbar’s coverage often. The rookie undrafted free agent started his first game in Week 14, allowed three of four targets to be caught for 87 yards – including a 50-yarder to Jeffery – and earned a -2.3 grade (86th of 98 qualifiers).
WR Michael Floyd – Arizona Cardinals, $6,100 (No Price Change)
There are a number of ways to gain exposure to what should be a high-scoring (50.5 projected total) and high-play-volume affair in Philadelphia. Floyd represents the most direct one this side of rostering Carson Palmer, which multiple-lineup GPP’ers should also look into. Floyd is the least expensive of Arizona’s receiving trio, and since getting over his hamstring strain two weeks ago, he’s also the most-targeted (by five over Larry Fitzgerald). During his last six (healthy) games, Floyd is averaging 8.3 targets, 5.2 catches, 89 yards, and a touchdown per contest.
The Eagles allow the most plays per game (70.7), the third-most points per play during the last month (0.46), and the most fantasy points to wideouts. Over the last four weeks, while allowing even more plays per game (74.3), Philadelphia’s pass defense is surrendering 299.8 yards and 3.5 touchdowns on average. Floyd runs roughly the same percentage of routes from the right side (39 percent) and left (33 percent). He will see plenty of up-and-down rookie Eric Rowe, and free-agent-bonfire Byron Maxwell. Both Floyd and John Brown ($6,300) have better primary matchups than Fitzgerald ($7,200) does against Malcolm Jennings in the slot.
TE Zach Ertz – Philadelphia Eagles, $5,000 (No Price Change)
One week after catching his first touchdown since Week 14 of last season, Ertz turned six targets and five catches into 98 yards. It was just his second double-digit FanDuel point total this year, and the most since he put up 19 in Week 16 last season while being targeted 18 times in a back-and-forth affair. The Eagles are hoping for a similar game script with the Cardinals – against whom they threw 62 passes in 2014. Ertz set a season-high for snap percentage in that huge game last year (76.9) and has now topped it in six straight (healthy) games.
Ertz is solidly the Eagles’ lead tight end, out-snapping and running significantly more routes than Brent Celek in every (healthy) game since Week 5. Over the last month, the Cardinals have allowed an average of 6.3 catches, 82.5 yards, and 0.8 touchdowns to tight ends from a few powderpuff offenses (Vikings, 49ers, Rams), and the Bengals. They have three top-25 coverage cornerbacks (two in the top-seven) and blitz at the league’s highest rate (50.7 percent). That funnels action inside, and quickly. Sam Bradford is 8-of-11 (7.8 yards per attempt), targeting his tight ends against blitzes, and 26-of-58 (3.6 YPA) to everyone else.
TE Clive Walford – Oakland Raiders, $4,700 (No Price Change)
In a week where the midrange tight ends are nothing to write home about, and if you’re not rostering Gronkowski (who is very much in play for reasons mentioned in the Brady section), Ertz and Walford are a pair of intriguing punts. Walford has seen his snap rate grow toward a career-high 64.5 percent in Week 14. His targets reached a new high (six) last week and his 11 looks and eight catches over the last two weeks are easily the best two-game totals of his career. He has six red zone targets out of 34 total looks, with five of them coming since Week 9.
The third-round-rookie’s role is expanding just in time for a potentially high-scoring matchup (47-point over/under) with a Packers team that allows the ninth-most points to tight ends – including six touchdowns in their last eight games. Tight ends are busy against them mainly due to strong cornerback play and a 41.3-percent blitz rate (fourth-highest). Derek Carr – who has a 112.7 quarterback rating and +14.8 PFF grade when blitzed – has made Walford his third-most highly-targeted pass-catcher against extra rushers since Week 7 (eight catches on 12 targets for 81 yards and a score).