NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 15
Welcome to Week 15, where we’d prefer to play seven running backs with our kicker and defense. Okay, eight running backs and a defense. The typical lineup construction will likely be heavy in the backfield and light in other spots to make it fit. Fortunately, there are enough lower-priced players in advantageous matchups with (hopefully) palatable ownership – some of whom we’ll discuss below – to tie it together.
As always, forcing an alternate lineup construction by paying up at another position is a viable tournament strategy. So are team- and game-stacks. With Saturday night’s contest erasing one from the main slate, several others potentially threatened by weather, and low projected point totals a theme of the week, finding a blow-up spot to leverage with a handful of players can rocket us up a leaderboard.
At receiver, we can pay up to be contrarian with Odell Beckham or Antonio Brown. Tyler Eifert offers the same dynamic at tight end. Aaron Rodgers and – if you’re feeling frisky – Drew Brees will likely have severely reduced ownership relative to their typical ceilings. However, this week we will take a different approach at those positions, and discuss lower-cost options who enjoy strong matchups.
The running back position is again the most pivotal. We can fit in David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell, but so can everyone else. LeSean McCoy will have high ownership as well. Paying down from there, even a little bit lower, still offers strong running backs in good spots – while differentiating tournament lineups and allowing us to gain an edge at other positions. Or we can jam in the studs and hope the cheap guys hit. It worked last week.
Most of the time, however, there is more than one way to skin this cat. Good luck in Week 15, everyone!
QB Tyrod Taylor – Buffalo Bills, $7,600
Coming off of a month of low-ceiling outings, Taylor doesn’t jump off the page despite checking boxes in the matchup and pricing columns. The most attractive player in Buffalo with the Browns in town is LeSean McCoy, given his recent performance and Cleveland’s accommodative stance toward running backs (second-most fantasy points allowed). Versatile on the field and in DFS, Taylor can be used when fading McCoy, in conjunction with McCoy, or as part of a team stack featuring McCoy and Sammy Watkins. The Bills’ uber-concentrated touch distribution makes that third choice viable.
Buffalo has the fourth-highest implied total on the slate, and they average 30.3 points in home games. Cleveland gives up the second-most points per game (28.8), as well as the second-most points to fantasy quarterbacks. Their pass coverage grades sixth-worst and the pass rush ranks eighth-worst. With the Bills favored by more than 10 points, a potential loss of passing volume is concerning. Fortunately, the Browns give up the second-highest yards-per-attempt average (7.5), and highest – by far – touchdown rate (6.9-percent of passes).
QB Joe Flacco – Baltimore Ravens, $7,400
The 18th-most-expensive quarterback on the main slate posted 20.1 and 30.2 FanDuel points in his last two games. Flacco is priced $600 more than Alex Smith, who has a date with a well-known sieve otherwise referred to as the Titans’ secondary (fourth-worst pass coverage grade). Flacco is not sexy and will likely have moderate ownership as a result. He is, however, second in pass attempts during the last six weeks (241) and tied for the most touchdowns (six). The Ravens drop back at the league’s second-highest rate of plays, despite trailing at the seventh-lowest. They face an Eagles team throwing more than anyone over the last six weeks. Game pace will be elevated.
Philadelphia allows the 21st-most points to fantasy quarterbacks for the season, but over the last month they are surrendering the second-most. Their pass coverage grades eighth-worst and the Eagles are tied with Oakland in allowing the most completions of 20-plus yards (50). Flacco hasn’t been throwing downfield with regularity this season (10.2-percent; 29th of 35 quarterbacks), but has shown deep-ball ability in the past. The Ravens have gone no-huddle on 46.4-percent of plays in their last two home games, and Flacco produced a 120.1 passer rating and three touchdowns on 42 up-tempo throws during that time. His wide target distribution makes him tough to stack, but Mike Wallace’s deep-ball profile fits best.
RB Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys, $8,500
Priced at a discount on the two juggernaut running backs – but not an enormous one – and just below LeSean McCoy in a pristine matchup against Cleveland, Elliott should be lightly-owned. By now, the rising Buccaneers’ defense is well-known enough to spook potential DFS investors when other elite backs are priced near Elliott. Tampa Bay has allowed the fewest points to fantasy running backs and the third-fewest plays per game over the last month. Volume hasn’t been an issue with Elliott, however, as he leads the league in rushing attempts (286) by 32 over Melvin Gordon.
The Cowboys are touchdown-favorites at home, with the second-highest implied total on the main slate. They will again lean on Elliott heavily, especially after Dak Prescott’s worst game as a pro. Elliott is our highest-graded rusher, his 11 touchdowns rank third among running backs, and he leads the league in runs of 15-plus yards. While the Buccaneers have been tough on running backs lately, they’ve faced one opponent grading in the top-15 for run-blocking. It was the Bears, and their running backs averaged 6.1 yards per carry. Chicago’s run-blocking grades 11th-best. The Cowboys run-blocking grade leads the league.
RB Carlos Hyde – San Francisco 49ers, $7,000
After last week’s 200 total yards (193 rushing) against the Jets’ previously-stout run defense, Hyde isn’t going to go unnoticed. Yet, as a nearly two-touchdown underdog on the road – one who’s only averaging 2.6 targets and 2.3 catches per game — his ownership rate shouldn’t be prohibitive. Game script is the worry, as we have seen his impact muted when the 49ers fall way behind. Of course, we aren’t considering him for cash lineups this week, and if San Francisco stands any chance of staying within shouting distance of Atlanta, Hyde will need to play the leading role.
During the last month, Hyde owns our second-highest-graded rushing grade. He is averaging 6.3 yards per carry, ranks second in Elusive Rating, and fourth in Breakaway Percentage — with a league-high six runs of 15-plus yards. On three occasions, the 49ers throttled down their no-huddle to hang with elite opponents (18-percent of snaps, versus 68-percent in all other games). In those contests, Hyde averages 24 touches, versus 17.4 in his other eight games. If he approaches 24 touches against the Falcons’ 26th-graded run defense, which has contributed to Atlanta allowing the third-most points to fantasy running backs, Hyde will do serious damage. If we want to execute a high-risk fade of the Falcons, Hyde’s our huckleberry.
RB Latavius Murray – Oakland Raiders, $6,800
Murray is priced in an area that may go overlooked as folks search for a cheaper running back to pair with one of the top dogs. Tenth-most-expensive at his position, Murray is attractively-priced when we consider five of his last seven contests produced at least 16 FanDuel points – with 24- and 31.2-point ceiling games. He has surpassed a 65-percent snap rate three times this season, with all of them coming over the last three weeks. During that time, he matched or exceeded his previous season-high of 23 pass routes. Murray’s rushing output has increased for three straight weeks and he’s scored four times in that span.
The Raiders have the third-highest-graded run-blocking and are field-goal-favorites in a game featuring the third-highest projected total on the main slate. San Diego surrenders the seventh-most points to fantasy running backs, including the third-most rushing touchdowns. Murray has the second-most ground scores (12) on 86 fewer attempts than league-leader LeGarrette Blount (14). Unlike during the first two months, Murray has lost only one carry from inside the five-yard line to vulture-fullback Jamize Olawale since November started. Murray has had 10 such opportunities and scored on seven of them.
RB LeGarrette Blount – New England Patriots, $6,300
Blount was able to average four yards on 18 carries and score 14.4 FanDuel points against Baltimore. It wasn’t supposed to be a “Blount game.” The Ravens are our top-graded run defense and allow a league-low 3.4 yards per carry. Opponents run against them at the fifth-lowest rate in the league. Teams run at the Broncos at the fifth-highest rate. They allow 4.2 yards per carry and are our 12th-highest-graded run defense. Those aren’t exactly tempting statistics to roll a running back against, but they contrast sharply with Denver’s league-best pass coverage grade and a pass rush ranking eighth-best.
The NFL leader in rushing touchdowns with 14, Blount ranks fourth in forced missed tackles on rushes, while piling up the fifth-most rushing yards and handoffs. In the five games he’s received at least 20 handoffs, Blount averaged 20.5 FanDuel points. If he doesn’t get 20-plus carries on Sunday, he either got hurt or the Broncos surprisingly tilted the game script. Considering the Patriots are field-goal-favorites — and good luck predicting injuries — it feels like a solid bet “The Garrette” will be heavily involved. New England has the fifth-best run-blocking grade and a long history of path-of-least-resistance game plans.
WR Tyrell Williams – San Diego Chargers, $6,500
Since leaving a Week 12 game with a torn labrum, Williams has posted 11.7 and 7.8 FanDuel points. He has seen nine total targets the last two weeks, catching four of them. It would be surprising if he drew heavy ownership this week, as he is priced within $100 of Emmanuel Sanders and Tyreek Hill, who have produced more recently. Teammate Kenneth Farrow will be chalky and suppress Williams’ popularity among those who aren’t team-stacking the Chargers – so, nearly everyone. He isn’t cash-game-safe, but has demonstrated upside and will differentiate lineups.
Prior to the last two weeks, Williams had averaged 6.2 catches on 9.9 targets, for 103.4 yards and 0.8 touchdowns in his last five games that didn’t involve the Broncos’ top-graded pass coverage. He faces Oakland’s 14th-graded coverage in a game with the third-highest total on the slate. The Raiders’ defense has generally been inconsistent, but they’re allowing the most passing yards per attempt and the sixth-most per game. Last time he faced them, Williams posted 117 yards and a touchdown on five catches. The perimeter cornerbacks he will see this week on at least 75-percent of his routes – David Amerson and Sean Smith – gave up 104 yards and a score to Williams without breaking up a pass.
WR Sammy Watkins – Buffalo Bills, $6,100
After re-acclimating in Week 12 with a 46-percent snap share and three targets (80 yards), Watkins has risen to full-time status. He has run at least 33 routes in his last two games and played 94-percent of snaps last week, while scoring for the first time this season. Priced as the 28th-most expensive wideout, Watkins will be popular – especially when his matchup is considered. Yet, LeSean McCoy is in a similarly juicy spot and should help absorb some of his teammate’s popularity. Rostering them together, along with Tyrod Taylor, is a viable path to a unique tournament lineup.
The Bills are tied for the fourth-highest implied total on the main slate and face a Browns team allowing the second-most points per game (28.8). Cleveland’s pass rush grades 25th-best and their pass coverage ranks 27th. Watkins should see shadow coverage from Browns’ top cornerback Joe Haden, although that sounds scarier than it actually is. Haden started the season well, grading 28th-best in coverage through five weeks. Since returning Week 8 from a groin injury, his coverage grade ranks 103rd out of 111 qualifiers. Watkins also runs roughly a quarter of his routes from the slot, where Haden has traveled sparingly (22 snaps) and unsuccessfully (4.1 yards per cover snap allowed) since his injury.
WR Willie Snead – New Orleans Saints, $5,900
Snead feels like a thin tournament play, especially since he hasn’t broken 20 FanDuel points since Week 1. Yet, a lot of things point to him this week. The Saints’ matchup with the Cardinals has the week’s second-highest projected total (51 points). New Orleans should struggle on the ground against Arizona’s seventh-graded run defense. Patrick Peterson projects to see a lot of Brandin Cooks, as he did Week 1 of 2015. Michael Thomas is returning from injury and may see Peterson as well. The Cardinals allow the second-fewest catches and fewest yards to tight ends. Unless it’s a John Kuhn week, Snead should produce.
The Cardinals’ 41.1-percent blitz rate is the league’s second-highest, and they have increased the percentage of dropbacks on which they bring extra rushers in each game since their Week 9 bye. It was a whopping 67.9-percent on Sunday, and on those dropbacks, Arizona allowed 74 yards on five catches to slot receivers. Snead runs 78-percent of routes from the slot and has hauled in 16 of 20 blitzed targets for 212 yards and three touchdowns (zero interceptions). 80-percent of those targets have come since Week 6. Snead offers potentially low-owned, cheap access to the Saints’ offense and will mainly operate where the Cardinals’ defense is weakest.
WR Jordan Matthews – Philadelphia Eagles, $5,700
Other than his dirt-cheap price tag, there’s not a lot to like about Matthews on the surface. He hasn’t scored more than 20 points since Week 1, and the Eagles’ implied total is the fourth-lowest on the slate. One thing we can appreciate about Matthews is his target load. After injuring his ankle in Week 12 and missing the next game, Matthews returned to 10 targets last week – catching eight for 79 yards. In the four games prior to getting hurt, he averaged 10.5 targets. His quarterback, Carson Wentz, leads the league in pass attempts since Week 7. He will be throwing often on Sunday.
The Eagles backfield is decimated and the Ravens feature our highest-graded run defense. Opponents run against Baltimore at the fifth-lowest rate. Sorry, Ryan Mathews. They also defend tight ends well, allowing the fewest catches and second-fewest yards to the position. Sorry, Zach Ertz. The Eagles’ perimeter receivers are, to be kind, not good. Dorial Green-Beckham grades 106th out of 116 wideouts. Nelson Agholor is that 116th wideout. The 6-foot-3, 212-pound Matthews will run most of his routes against the 5-foot-10, 193-pound Jerraud Powers. Powers is tied with old friend Shareece Wright as the 82nd-graded coverage cornerback. As it turns out, there is quite a bit to like about Matthews this week.
TE Kyle Rudolph – Minnesota Vikings, $5,800
Priced above several attractive options, including Antonio Gates (tight end touchdown record narrative) and Ladarius Green (finally up and running), Rudolph will not attract the attention he deserves. He’s boring. He also ranks third in targets and catches among tight ends over the last three weeks, with 26 and 19. He has six double-digit FanDuel point totals this season and ranks sixth in fantasy tight end scoring. Rudolph’s targets are elevated lately due to the Vikings throwing often. Sam Bradford’s 116 pass attempts since Week 12 are the seventh-most, and he’s completed an NFL-high 75-percent of them.
The Vikings have the sixth-highest implied total on the main slate (24.8), or five more points than they have averaged to this point. Facing a Colts defense allowing the eighth-most points (25.6) and grading dead-last tends to elevate expectations. Rudolph is a strong bet to get in on that scoring. He is tied for the team lead with six touchdowns and is consistently active in the scoring area. He ranks first among tight ends, and fifth overall, in red zone targets (17). Indianapolis allows the third-most yards, seventh-most catches, and 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends on the 14th-most targets.
TE Jermaine Gresham – Arizona Cardinals, $4,500
There are several options with higher ceilings than Gresham, but he is the premiere minimum-salaried punt play. He is rising up the target totem pole on a team with the third-highest implied total on the main slate. Since Week 6, Gresham’s 5.6 target-per-game average ranks 15th among tight ends — or 12th among currently-healthy tight ends – and he has seen at least six looks in four of the Cardinals’ five games since their bye. In a down week for high-upside matchups, paying way down for a solid, if unspectacular, floor makes sense at fantasy’s most volatile position. Plus, if you squint hard enough, Gresham has a little more ceiling than first meets the eye.
Once Gresham crossed the 20-route, 90-percent-snaps threshold in Week 6, he not only became one of Carson Palmers’ favorite targets, he’s become useful against blitzes. Gresham has caught eight of 11 blitzed targets, for 79 yards and a touchdown since Week 6. The Saints lead the league with a 42-percent blitz rate. Considering Palmer has been abysmal when pressured (56.9 passer rating) versus when he has a clean pocket (97.8 rating), and Gresham’s pass -blocking grades 62nd out of 62 qualifying tight ends, we know where he will be when New Orleans dials-up pressure on Sunday.